The SEC sure is being quiet on expansion
Okay, I tried to stay away. I tried to be a good boy and take time off and ignore the computer. But the expansion story is just too good. Some quick observations today. You already know most this stuff but I just want a chance to weigh in and get your thoughts.
1. The SEC is being awfully quiet in all this. Various media reports say Nebraska to the Big Ten is done and will be announced on Friday. There are also reports out there that very quietly, Mike Slive and his folks at the SEC could still invite Texas and Texas A&M if the Big 12 breaks up. Would Oklahoma and Oklahoma State come along? Yes, I know about the Pac-10 offer to the six Big 12 teams (Texas, A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado). But as one official put it to me yesterday: Do you think DeLoss Dodds (the Texas athletics director) would rather send his women’s softball team to Pullman, Washington (home of Pac-10 member Washington State) or Tuscaloosa, Ala? I know all about the academic arguments in favor of the Pac-10. I’ll believe it when I see it.
People keep telling me that the SEC should do nothing. But if the Pac-10 and the Big Ten both go to 16 teams, can the SEC stay with a pat hand?
There is absolutely nothing coming out of the SEC on this. This is as locked down as I’ve ever seen them. That should make some people nervous because Slive is one of those “speak softly and carry a big stick” kind of guys.
2. Can Texas, Texas A&M save the Big 12? Various media reports have officials from the two schools meeting today. Understand that Dodds and A&M athletics director Bill Byrne have the juice to hold the league together even if Nebraska and Colorado (to the Pac-10) both leave. The Big 12 can pick up TCU, which further strengthens the Dallas market. I would also pick up SMU. Great academics and a football program on the rise with June Jones as coach. If the Big 12 doesn’t fall apart, then this process could be relatively calm. But Texas could decide that staying in the Big 12 is simply delaying the inevitable breakup.
3. But does the Big Ten stop at 12 teams? In the short term it could happen. Commissioner Jim Delany recently put it out there that expansion for his league could come in stages. Because Delany’s grand plan could put two conferences (Big East, Big 12) out of business, perhaps he decides to go on the installment plan.
4. Forget Notre Dame. With Nebraska set to accept the Big Ten’s offer on Friday, I think it closes the door on Notre Dame becoming a member of that conference. I could see Notre Dame becoming the 12th member of the Big Ten. I can’t see the Irish being the 13th or 14th or 16th member. Now all of that could change if the Big East falls apart. The Notre Dame would have to find another home for men’s basketball and its non-revenue sports.
5. The Pac-10 will expand. Even if the grand plan (inviting six teams from the Big 12) does not come to pass, that conference will still add at least two teams (Colorado and perhaps Utah). The league is getting ready to negotiate its next TV contract in football and it has to bring someting new to the market place. Here is another factor: The Pac-10’s marquee program, The University of Southern California, is about to get hammered by the NCAA. The Pac-10 has gotta do something.
Stayed tuned. The next 24 hours could be really interesting.
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748 comments Add your comment
Kevin in Dallas
June 10th, 2010
10:16 am
The Pac-16 is not a good deal for Texas and A&M. The cards are stacked in favor the west coast teams. To let California dictate what Texas schools do is a farce.
My bet is UT ATM and OU patch up the Big 12 and weigh all the offers, with UT and ATM going SEC in the end.
Otto
June 10th, 2010
10:17 am
Gator, Miami is a national program and as a private school gets students from across the nation. I’d like to know how Miami does in merchandise. Miami like OU can get prime time national TV games.
The NC schools can not do that regularly. Also to get the NC schools all 4 would have to be taken.
POW
June 10th, 2010
10:18 am
We don’t want no stinkin’ GA Tech! They add nothing…. ATL market is cornered…move on!
Otto
June 10th, 2010
10:21 am
Kevin, Texas is looking at having the cards stacked either way.
The PAC16 has Cali roots. The SEC has roots in the Southeast.
The only option on the table for the Big12 other than disbanding is splitting revenue equally like the other conference and taking a few teams from the MWC and maybe Boise St.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if TCU was part of a package to save the Big12?
I do rate the chances slim to none of that happening but you never know with Texas politics.
Derek
June 10th, 2010
10:24 am
SEC WEST – Texas, Tex A&M, Ok, Ok State, LSU, Ark, Ole Miss, Miss St.
SEC EAST – Florida, ‘Bama, Georgia, Auburn, Tenn, S. Carolina, Kentucky, Vandy
Boss
June 10th, 2010
10:24 am
You don’t have to believe the academic arguments when you see it. You already saw it in 1994 when Texas rejected the SEC invitation due to academics. And academically Texas is better now than it was then.
r hamra
June 10th, 2010
10:24 am
Enter your comments here
Yeppie
June 10th, 2010
10:26 am
Otto… Great responses. I agree with you. A little fact: Texas was invited to the SEC before the Big 12 united. The Texas legislature would not allow Texas to move to the SEC without Texas A&M. Imagine what the SEC would look like with Texas in the conference.
kgator79
June 10th, 2010
10:27 am
Otto…
Miami only enrolls 15,000 students. As for their merchandise. I live in the state of Florida and rarely see someone wearing Hurricane gear. But all of that is irrelevant to the fact that Miami 1. Doesnt have their own stadium. 2. Does not have a fan base that can sell out their stadium. The SEC schools do not want to send their teams to Miami causing their fan basis to fill UM’s pockets with money because they will be filling the stadium and then in turn, have Miami visit their stadium and do nothing to add to the ticket booth. Again, all of this is about money, not product on the field and Miami does not help produce that.
SEC Fan
June 10th, 2010
10:27 am
GT will never be invited to the SEC, nor will Clemson because UGA and So. Car. are not about to give up the athletic conference prestige they have over in state schools. People in the SEC don’t forget how GA Tech slapped the faces of SEC schools as they left the conference. Georgia Tech won’t solidify any market because the SEC already is viewed as solidifying the ATL market. If we are looking at the future, I would look to Miami, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and maybe Clemson (So. Car. doesn’t have enough pull as a late entry). The question I would have is Arkansas going to replace Nebraska and bolt for a salvaged Big 12? Interesting scenarios.
Shankit
June 10th, 2010
10:27 am
I would like to see Georgia join the conference with
Ohio State. Georgia has not lost a bowl game I can
recall to that conference in years. They would wind
up in the BCS or Rose Bowl every year. Think of the
cash.
Tom
June 10th, 2010
10:30 am
I believe the SEC expands and my bets are on Texas and the Aggies joining the West and FSU and Clemson joining the East
Lowcountry Bulldawg
June 10th, 2010
10:30 am
West- Texas A&M
Texas
East- FSU
Clemson
Balances out both sides and makes it clearly the toughest conference to navigate in the history of college football. If a team comes out of this with 1 conference loss it clearly is the best team in the Nation.
HugoStiglitz
June 10th, 2010
10:32 am
The Pac 10 is able to offer Texas Tech a spot in the new conference which will ease alot of political pressures. The SEC probably wont offer that. If you cant invite Texas, A&M, and Texas Tech then you probably arent getting either of them. I would contend with the travel argument also. If the new Pac 10 is structured like it is rumored to be then they would be playing mostly Texas, Arizona, and Oklahoma teams, with maybe one or two away games a season in the California/Washington area. In the SEC they would have to travel alot for pretty much any game outside of Arkansas and LSU. Why would traveling to Pullman be that much worse then traveling to Athens?
Aside from all of that Texas seems to fit better in the Pac 10 for cultural and academic reasons and the Pac 10 plans to launch a new TV network which everyone knows would be very lucrative. I honestly dont see what the SEC really has to offer Texas and A&M is probably going whereever Texas goes.
Yeppie
June 10th, 2010
10:33 am
SEC should not rest on its heals in a pious form.
Needs to offer Texas and Texas A&M.
Then look at the ACC. VT and NC??
cantondawg
June 10th, 2010
10:36 am
Tony,
I absolutely agree with you that Texas to the Pac-10 makes no sense. Think of the money spent on travel back and forth to California and exhaustion. I guarantee you that the Texas coaches do not want this.
GeezusDawg
June 10th, 2010
10:37 am
If the Big 10 offers (and gets) Ga Tech, the Atlanta market is no longer locked by the SEC. For the Big 10, that is a great move as it would make significant in-roads into recruiting in the SE and they could grow their network in ATL. Ga Tech would be a good SEC fit – Clemson/FSU not so much.
There is plenty of Miami merchandise out there …. at thrift stores and homeless shelters.
I live in North Carolina and believe me, it would NOT expand the SEC footprint. Duke/UNC/Wake/NC State would never even consider a move.
RVD
June 10th, 2010
10:37 am
I think Texas may have shot themselves in the foot on this one. By not agreeing to changing the Big 12’s revenue sharing system (that favors them), they basically forced Nebraska to take the better deal with the Big Ten. Now the Longhorns face either staying in a weakened conference or joining a conference where they won’t get everything their way (be it either the Pac 10 or SEC).
Go Dawgs.
cantondawg
June 10th, 2010
10:38 am
i don’t feel that the SEC needs to do anything. The Big Ten was so far behind the SEC that they had to pull this expansion trick to catch up with us. Do you really think by adding Nebraska and Missouri that this will even bring them close to parity with the SEC. I don’t.
Tyler
June 10th, 2010
10:39 am
SEC West-
LSU
Arkansas,
Auburn,
Alabama
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Mississippi State
SEC East-
Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Clemson
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vandy will leave the SEC
Yeppie
June 10th, 2010
10:39 am
Texas will make a lot of money in the Pac 10. An individual TV network created and the Pac 10 will negotiate a new mega TV contract. That is why the SEC should be reactive.
Ormewood
June 10th, 2010
10:39 am
Texas is not joining the SEC. Ain’t happening. They want to be the big fish, They can do that in the Pac-whatever, Big 12, or Big 10. It’ll be much easier to win NC’s in those conferences, too. And contrary to what many of on here are saying, the academic rep of the SEC schools is certainly a factor in Texas’s disinterest in the SEC.
RVD
June 10th, 2010
10:42 am
Hugo,
Austin to Pullman is about 2,000 miles. Austin to Athens is about 1K.
And Austin to Phoenix is about 1K too. Austin to the center point of the current SEC is 700-800 miles.
The travel would be much less in the SEC. Not saying they’ll end up there – just saying that the travel distances are less.
SEC fan
June 10th, 2010
10:42 am
I really hope they cap the total in each conference at 12 teams. It’s the perfect amount and these 16 team super-conferences are a turn off for me. From a football standpoint, the SEC championship is the best game in college football every year. In the east, a super-conference would only guarantee that Florida, Georgia and Tennessee would go a little less often to Atlanta and USC(Never been) would probably never go. UK and Vandy would basically have zero chance.
Tyler
June 10th, 2010
10:46 am
I hope Texas joins the SEC, but ESPN thinks they are going to the Pac 10, along with Oklahoma. I think UNC joining the SEC would be great, because their football program is on the rise and their basketball team has a deep history.
Clemson has a rivalry with South Carolina, as does GT with UGA, or FSU, I could see any of those joining
Otto
June 10th, 2010
10:47 am
Gator, I see Miami gear regularly in Atlanta U front tags are not unusual. They are also some of the more common fans I run across on offtopic forums in football discussions.
Yeppie, Thanks and agreed looking back I would trade Ark. and S. Car. for Texas and Tx A&M. Baylor politics may have also been hiding in the background at that time. The true story of the backroom deals back in the early 90s may never be known just as today.
Texas and Tx A&M are meeting to discuss their future. Tx Tech is not at that table. Tx Tech was somewhat of a surprise in the Big 12. Tx Tech didn’t even join the SWC until 1960. If the money was right Tx and Tx A&M would leave Tx Tech out in the cold. I’d also wager the Texas Athletic department would take OU over Tx Tech.
SEC fan
June 10th, 2010
10:47 am
Option A: Texas A&M to the west and FSU to the east.
Option B: FSU to the west and Clemson to the east.
Either way, FSU should be a lock for an invite.
Otto
June 10th, 2010
10:50 am
Tyler, the UNC football program goes on the rise about every 20 years. Give it another 5 and they’ll be back down. Again the SEC would have to take all 4 NC schools same as Texas but less $$$.
FSU would generate the most cash out of those options.
I think Slive maybe up to something that has not yet hit the blogs.
Paul in RDU
June 10th, 2010
10:50 am
Assuming that Nebraska does have an offer from the Big Ten, Texas now becomes the key domino.
If they stay in the Big 12, the conference will stay together and add a replacement for Nebraska. Any conference that wants Texas is going to have to offer A&M.
With the Big 10 going to 12 members and presumably adding a conference championship game (likely in one of the domes in the region) the Pac 10 is going to go to at least 12 to have their own championship game. The big question then becomes who are they going to get – if the Pac 10 goes for the +6 (UT, A&M, OU, OSU and 2 others) the Big 12 will evaporate and there will be a mad scramble. The Big 10 and SEC will be doing the poaching.
Yeppie
June 10th, 2010
10:51 am
Texas wanted to initially before the formation of Big 12 was invited to the SEC. However, academics and the legislature(politics)would not allow Texas to leave without Texas A&M.
Texas wants and will be the big fish. I do not like the idea, but the reality may be to salvage the Big 12 or join the Pac 10.
IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME- When the SEC and ACC start to reorgainize. May be a year or two but it will happen sooner than expected.
Jackets!
June 10th, 2010
10:52 am
GT will get an invite from the SEC if this mega conference stuff happens in the Pac 10 and Big 10. Sure UGA fans wont approve but I think the SEC will grab a school with tradition and great academics. We would bring above average programs to the table in the three major sports…and yes I consider NCAA appearances above average because only 64 teams out of 300+ D1 basketball teams that compete make the tourney. We may not bring a new tv market but we bring tradition, academic success, and athletic success.
BRAVOS69
June 10th, 2010
10:53 am
First, lets get serious here. If the SEC is going to go after ACC schools, it is going to go after the best football programs. Virginia Tech has consistently been the best football school in the ACC – academically, they could work in the SEC. VT is also close in proximity to Tennessee and opens up a natural rivalry between those two schools which we saw last year at the Peach Bowl. Take Va Tech, a consistent top 10, program every year. Don’t bother with ANY of the North Carolina schools – they are all relatively weak in football. VT, FSU, and A&M. Trade Vandy back to the ACC. Add Va Tech and FSU to the east and A&M to the west. 14 team league.
Paul in RDU
June 10th, 2010
10:53 am
cantondawg – The Big 10 is behind the SEC on the football field, but they are way ahead of them in revenue and these conference realignments are all about the $$$
Otto
June 10th, 2010
10:54 am
I don’t see Vandy leaving the SEC. The SEC would have to kick them out as Vandy is smart enough not to walk out on the $$ on their own. The SEC would face a media fire storm if they kicked a member out for money, if their is even a way to legally do it.
Dave Dawg
June 10th, 2010
10:54 am
FSU to the West. In the East, choose from Va. Tech, Clemson, Ga. Tech and Miami.
GeezusDawg
June 10th, 2010
10:54 am
Schools won’t just be “acquired” as though they have no choice. I can say that the NC schools don’t care – they would probably do something with the remaining Big East schools.
Plus, wouldn’t you hate to see a Tennessee/UNC game – they would have to cut the lights off.
Otto
June 10th, 2010
10:55 am
RDU, The SEC is still ahead as the schools can market their own in state TV media. The revenue myth has been busted on many blogs.
Analyze This
June 10th, 2010
10:55 am
So is it widely accepted that Nebraska left b/c they could get more money in the Big Ten? Or were there other reasons?
I know it’s been said that Nebraska was sick of how the conference was geared towards Texas. Maybe that combined with more money made them make the jump?
DP
June 10th, 2010
10:56 am
GeezusDawg, the Big 10 alums in the Atlanta area who follow their college football teams already subscribe to the Big 10 network. The Big 10 games are on TV at the same time as SEC games, which run from about noon to 11 P.M. most Saturdays, and the SEC games are on a local channel, CBS and ESPN, not a pay subscription network. The idea that Tech going to the Big 10 somehow would make the Big 10 competitive with the SEC in the Atlanta market is a fantasy. For all the rumors that have floated around about Big 10 expansion targets I’ve never seen Georgia Tech mentioned as a candidate. It makes no sense. Tech’s closest conference rival geographically would be what, Indiana?
Tyler
June 10th, 2010
11:00 am
The big thing is If Texas joined the SEC, it would make the conferences even MORE unbalanced. It would be unstoppable (even more than it is now).
I think the SEC will pick up two schools. Four schools is a stretch.
Joining the East might be GT, VT, or Clemson
Joining the West might be FSU, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
HugoStiglitz
June 10th, 2010
11:01 am
RVD, that is true but it doesnt change my point. According to ESPN the division of the PAC 10 that Texas would be in would consist of Texas, A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Ok State, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona St. Lets say the setup is play all division teams, 3 other division teams, and 2 OOC games. They would end up playing 1 or 2 games on the west coast a year and most of their schedule wouldnt even change from what it is now. Go to the SEC with A&M and most of your away games will be a fairly long distance. They would also be making Texas Tech and Oklahoma OOC games which im not sure they want to do.
Yeppie
June 10th, 2010
11:01 am
Otto.. your right. Politics will play a role. I respect the SEC talent level. Just disappointed in the Big 12 NORTH division. The Big 12 South was/is a tough and talented organization. The north division was a liability. SEC is fortunate at this time to have a strong East and West division.
I wish the SEC could remain the same, granted it may do so for a few years but something will happen down the road and the ACC and SEC will reorganize. This will happen if the Pac 10 gets its chosen 6 teams from the BIG 12 South. It will domino. May take a couple of years but it will erupt.
THANKS OTTO… Appreciate the solid responses..
Paul in RDU
June 10th, 2010
11:01 am
Teams from the ACC that aren’t going to the SEC:
The 4 schools in NC – can’t take 1 without taking the rest
UVA and VT – can’t take 1 (VT) without taking the other
MD, BC – too far north
That leaves GT, Clemson, FSU and UM.
FSU and Clemson would take any offer in a millisecond. DRad would count the $ and recommend to the Pres that GT take the offer. I am not sure what the SEC would gain (financially) from taking GT
Newday
June 10th, 2010
11:03 am
GA Tech will not be getting a bid. FSU is at the top of the list along with Texas and Texas A&M.
1. Texas
2. Texas A&M
3. FSU
4. Open for discussion.
Should the Texas & Texas A&M opt out then Clemson, UNC, and Duke will be considered along with FSU.
Otto
June 10th, 2010
11:04 am
Tom Osborne never liked the Big12 even when he was coaching and being subject to the rules being handed down from an office in Texas.
Thewizofodds.com had some interesting links on it.
Wow
June 10th, 2010
11:04 am
Its funny how these UGA fans get on these message boards and talk crap like they are perennial powers. You guys have won nothing in 30 years and all you can do is talk about beating tech. Last I checked, Tech has been to a coulpe of ACC championship games in the past few years, regardless of the offense they run or how many people watch. You UGA fans get excited about the number of stars your recruits have. I admire you UGA fans loyalty to your coach, but you all are in denial. You all need to worry about your coach and winning before you worry about Texas and Texas A&M coming into your confrerence. If they come, you all really wont win, unless yall get rid of Richt, he is overrated. Urban, Saban, Les, and yes, even Paul Johnson, has experienced quicker and greater success than Richt
XpatHeel
June 10th, 2010
11:05 am
“Plus, wouldn’t you hate to see a Tennessee/UNC game – they would have to cut the lights off.”
GeezusDawg, if you’re talking about football, the vowels and Heels play in 2011 and 2012….and I suspect the lights will be on. The orange carnage will be seen by all…espn will be all over it. Lil Doolz will get his head handed to him.
Dave In Tampa
June 10th, 2010
11:06 am
If anything, I just feel that Slive should vehemently go after Texas & Texas A&M, Then OU & Okie St. Just my opinion. If just two I would still go after Texas and A&M before pursueing FSU or Clemson. Texas and A7M would be a better draw. Better revenue!
Dave In Tampa
June 10th, 2010
11:07 am
“A&M” no A7M
Otto
June 10th, 2010
11:08 am
Yeppie, You too. Good to see someone who gets it and views is much the same.
Sadly the Big 12 died on two main points.
1) Revenue not being split evenly
2) The OU and Nebraska game going on rotation. Nebraska’s biggest traditional tie to the Big 8 and biggest money maker has been dormant for years.