ACC needs an expansion plan–right now
Bear Bryant used to end his Sunday night television show with these words: “Don’t forget to call your Mama. I wish I could call mine.” I was lucky to be with my Mama on Sunday in Madison, Ga. Hope you had a great Mother’s Day as well.
The ACC Spring Meetings begin today at the lovely beach-front Ritz-Carlton Hotel at Amelia Island. Think the Big Ten’s possible expansion plans will come up? Yes it will because there are some athletics directors who are going to sit in the day’s first meeting with commissioner John Swofford and want to know three things: 1) What do we expect the Big Ten to do? 2) How do we expect the SEC to react? 3) What is our plan if No. 1 and No. 2 both happen?
It wasn’t that long ago that the ACC was expanding and dipping into the Big East for three teams (Miami, Boston College, Virginia Tech). The ACC was the aggressor in an effort to expand to 12 teams and bulk up its status as major player in football.
It hasn’t been a failure as some detractors would suggest, but neither has it been the rousing success that the football forces in the ACC had hoped. Florida State and Miami, which were placed in separate divisions to maximize their punch, are still struggling to get back on the national stage. The conference championship game has been a mixed bag, depending on the matchup. The ACC remains the only conference of the Big Six not to place two teams in BCS bowls in the same season. The landscape of college football has changed dramatically since the ACC last expanded.
The ACC did get a good initial TV contract from expansion but that contract ends after the 2010-2011 season. The ACC is in the midst of its negotiation for a new football deal and the numbers that are being offered, I’ve been told, are not particularly good given the marketplace, where the economy is down and the Big Ten and SEC are sucking up about 50 percent of the available dollars. Don’t be surprised if the ACC brings on another TV partner, like Fox or the NFL Network, hoping to generate more revenue.
The fact is that the ACC is as vulnerable right now as the Big East was back in 2003. Here’s why:
If the Big Ten expands to 16 teams the SEC may feel the need to follow suit. The SEC could look to the ACC and take some teams (like Florida State) to solidify its Southern footprint.
Here is another item that should concern you as an ACC fan. My buddy Blair Kerkoff of the Kansas City Star reports that the Pac-10 and Big 12 are having discussions about the possibility of forming an alliance and negotiating their TV deals as one unit. Together they would have more clout (and more television sets) than individually.
Here are the facts, folks, and I hope my friends in the ACC are reading this down in Amelia Island. If the Big Ten goes to 16 teams, the Big East is going to be out of the football business. The SEC and the Big Ten dominate the marketplace. They will get their money while the Pac-10, Big 12, and ACC are going to be scrambling for what’s left.
If those three conferences don’t already have contingency plans in place, they had better put them together—and fast. I know that Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany has said his expansion plans are still in a 12-18 month window. I don’t believe that and there are some very smart people who work in this business who don’t believe it either.
Because once the Big Ten makes its move, this thing is going to move very quickly. It’s going to be like a high-stakes game of musical chairs and somebody may get left without a quality seat, financially speaking, at the college football’s Big Boy table. And that could be our friends at the ACC.
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416 comments Add your comment
GO HEELS
May 10th, 2010
9:47 pm
THE BIG TEN SHOULD INVITE BOISE STATE THEY PLAYED IN JUS AS MORE BCS BOWL GAMES AS FLORIDA IN THE PAST THREE YEARS… ALONG WITH BYU ,CINN, CINN WILL CREATE A IN STATE WAR BETWEEN THEM AND OHIO STATE DONT SEE RUTGEERS FITTING WELL THERE AS FAR AS STADIUM CAP AND TV TIME BUT IF THEY PULL IN BYU , BOISE STATE, NOTRE DAME, AND CINN WOULD AND SHOULD GENRATE ALOT OF TV TIME AND REVENUE
Delbert D.
May 10th, 2010
9:58 pm
Phillip – Some earlier comments on this subject; Louisville would not likely be chosen by the SEC because they are Tier 3 academic school.
Ormewood
May 10th, 2010
10:22 pm
Go Heels, stop with the all caps. No need to yell. Why would the ACC add East Carolina? The NC schools wouldn’t want that, and most definitely the non NC schools wouldn’t want it. They don’t like having four from NC right now. Plus, ECU would bring absolutely zero in terms of additional eyes and TV markets.
Oh, and that university in Columbia is not USC. USC is in Watts. South Carolina is in Columbia.
Delbert D.
May 10th, 2010
10:41 pm
The ACC would never add East Carolina. There are no Tier 3 schools in the ACC (and none in the Big Ten either.)
Tide Rising
May 10th, 2010
10:46 pm
Very true about GT. If Tech came back into the sec they would have no problem filling their stadium. If Tech were playing Alabama, AU, UT, LSU, etc not only would every game be a sellout but they would probably have to add seats. Programs like the 4 I just mentioned either have large alumni bases in Atlanta or are in such close proximity that people from those schools would bring 40,000 if Tech had available tickets for them. On top of that it would rejuvenate the interest of the Tech fans themselves. I’m sure the Tech fans would be more interested seeing their team play Alabama or Auburn then NC State or Duke, Wake, MD, etc. That’s not a knock on those ACC programs just a comment that games against old rivals right next door would be more interesting to Tech fans also.
Tony = Chicken Little?
May 10th, 2010
11:01 pm
Someone asked where i got my research figures:
This is for 2008.
GT: NSF says $522million. USG says $445 million
The average of the two is $483 million
UGA: NSF says $350 million. USG says $192 million
The average of the two is $271 million
So I was a little off on UGA, sorry.
But it is still a difference of over $200 million/ year. Oh yeah, and UGA has twice the number of students.
And there were 6 ACC teams in the top 50 NSF total research awards, vs 3 SEC teams by my count for 2008.
SWATS
May 10th, 2010
11:20 pm
If notre dame would just join the Big 10 this would all go away!
Bill
May 10th, 2010
11:34 pm
Think the whole key will be Notre Dame. That would settle the Big 10 at 12. But The Pac 10 would love Colorado and that is where it will get interesting. Think BYU and Colorado makes the Pac 10 happy. If ND refuses to join the Big 10, the whole state of affairs depends on where the Big 10 would elect to expand to. The East would be Pitt, Syracuse and possibly Rutgers because of the New York Market. Think Missouri would be their next choice. The Big 12 would need 2 teams. Doubt Rice and TCU would both be viable and SMU, despite Dallas market, isn’t big time since the 80’s. They would beg for Arkansas and if they leave, the SEC would have to try and pry at least Miami or FSU from the ACC. If the SEC feels 14 or 16 is better, GT and Clemson would be next. Atlanta is an obvious market. A 15th/16th team would come from Louisville, Va Tech and…don’t laugh…Boston College. Why wouldn’t the SEC expand into the northeast just like the ACC if the $$ was there? Yes, the Big East would be swallowed up by the ACC( W Va, Big 10 rejected schools, S Fl ) and possibly C Fl( Orlando)…..expansion won’t be directed by schools, but by MARKET PLACE. It’s going to be 1990 all over again…..REMEMBER when FSU was a ‘lock” for the SEC and S CAR was going back to the ACC? The ACC better get a deal in place fast or they will lose FSU, Miami GT and Clemson for sure. Tony is right on the money. EXCELLENT call.
Edog
May 10th, 2010
11:41 pm
Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Miami to the SEC! That would be awesome!
Surfer
May 10th, 2010
11:58 pm
Will Ugay even have enough players to field a team after all the arrests?
Surfer
May 11th, 2010
12:08 am
Tiderising pole smoker. AU landed the number one recruit from LA, AR, MS and split with the redneck mullets from bama in Alabama. Tide is turning…………
Miles
May 11th, 2010
12:19 am
Let the Big 10 expand…it won’t present any problems for the other conferences…instead, what will happen is that the already weak Big 10 will spread itself even thinner and thus become even weaker! Who in the hell is afraid of the Big 10?
Paddy
May 11th, 2010
2:50 am
Eric in Ohio…..not sure what a Tier 3 school means. Pls explain. Never heard of academics refered to as Tier 3.
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
7:00 am
Big 10/11 goes after ND, Missouri, Nebraska, and Rutgers. Big 12 is bleeding bad now. If all four schools agree that puts them at 15 they need to get to 16 so they raid the Big 12 again. The sharks are circling, the SEC most now pick up four to get to 16, they raid the BIG 8 now for Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State, and the feeding frenzy begins anew when the sharks from the PAC smell blood and go after Colorado and the remaining three and the Big 12 is no longer. The ACC must now feed itself and raids the Big East again snatching Pitt, U Conn, Syracuse, and Villinova moves up to big time football. Feeding time is now over.
Charlie Bama
May 11th, 2010
7:57 am
Suffer –uh, I mean Surfer. With such lame contributions to public discourse, you could only be an Aubie (so cute!) or and and Orange Hillbilly from Knoxvegas. I’m guessing Hillbilly—and you wear it well!
Rick S
May 11th, 2010
8:32 am
It is looking more and more that the Big Ten will expand to 16 teams so I believe the SEC needs to move forward and start the expansion process now as if there will be invitations to some of the ACC Schools now is the time to begin laying the ground work and start the dialogue. The ACC will not simply lay down and let the SEC take away members of the conference so being aggressive and proactive is absolutely necessary.
Gt4ever
May 11th, 2010
8:55 am
Sweet, back in the SEC, where we belong!
Expansion Mania 2010: ACC Vol. I : On The B.Rink
May 11th, 2010
9:06 am
[...] AJC’s Tony Barnhart thinks the ACC has to take the second option of Swofford’s words and put a plan in action. The fact is that the ACC is as vulnerable right now as the Big East was back in 2003. Here’s [...]
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
9:12 am
I’m telling you guys the SEC wants bigger fish than the ACC can give them, namely Texas and either Oklahoma or Texas A&M.
Gt4ever
May 11th, 2010
9:18 am
Texas, Oklahoma, or Texas A&M ?????? Maybe your right, but the logistics would be very challenging….
Starring Joke Johnson and the Middle School Option Veer
May 11th, 2010
9:24 am
Tech will not be invited to the SEC due to no fan support
Violence, muggings, and drive by’s at their games
And poor coaching strategy with the middle school option veer
Starring Joke Johnson and the Middle School Option Veer
May 11th, 2010
9:26 am
The ACC would do itself a favor and drop Ga Tech for Ga State.
In 10 years there will be more fans a Ga State than at Ga Tech.
Gt4ever
May 11th, 2010
9:31 am
Another UGA fan that has NO clue! It’s NO wonder how you guys win the NC for worst fans in the country, something you can really be proud of….. You are 2nd to none….
Starring Joke Johnson and the Middle School Option Veer
May 11th, 2010
9:45 am
Gt4 never
I think its your fans who consistently win the NC for worst fans in the country.
Because you go to a conference championship and cannot even fill the stadium.
You never fill your highschool stadium except when you play a real opponent in UGA.
And your fans think because you won the ACC last year your going to play for the NC this year.
Your just another Tech fan that needs to get a clue.
The SEC doesn’t want or need a school that cannot fill its highschool stadium and cannot beat a terrible UGA team.
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
9:50 am
GT4ever, not real bad as there is Arkansas and LSU right near by.
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
9:58 am
Not to mention Mississippi and Mississippi State.
Reality
May 11th, 2010
10:02 am
This is the DUMBEST thing ever! The SEC may want ACC teams, but that doesn’t mean that ACC teams want SEC.
Believe it or not, the SEC ain’t all that – regardless of what the ajc and the SEC fans would believe in their dilusional world.
I think it is MUCH more plausible (for you SEC brains, substitue “it makes more sense) for SEC teams to want to join the ACC. Here is why:
1. ACC already has basketball money.
2. ACC already has a lion’s share of football money being one of the BCS schools.
3. If the ACC is sooooo “easy” in football, won’t those “tough” SEC schools want to join the ACC in order to dominate?
4. The ACC conference from a geographic perspective is much better off – being up the East coast to Boston – for recruiting.
Imagine the ACC with the addition of Florida, Auburn or Alabama, and Tennessee. That would open up so much for the ACC, and those schools would gain so much of an advantage.
Bull Gator
May 11th, 2010
10:04 am
I am a Gator fan and think that we would be a great fit in the ACC. Currently we are the only academics first school in the SEC. We are just so much better than the SEC right now and the best thing that our school can do is to continue its push into the top 10 schools in America. Moving to the ACC protects our athletics program and then enhances our academics.
Vandy Grad
May 11th, 2010
10:08 am
Hey Bull Gator – the University of Florida is a safety school.
Pawleys Island Jacket
May 11th, 2010
10:25 am
Get GT back in the SEC!
Bryan
May 11th, 2010
10:30 am
Bulldog59 – I drove all the way to Shreveport to see UGA in a meanless bowl in Nowhere, USA, also known as Shreveport. I’m a little baffled why fans wouldn’t do the same to see their team compete for a conference championship. Could be those folks planned on going to their respective bowl games instead.
That’s just the problem. For many ACC fans it’s not a simple drive over to Jacksonville. It’s an expensive plane ticket preceding an expensive trip to a bowl game. Believe me if the ACC title game was in Atlanta or Charlotte (which it will be) there will be plenty more fans in attendance because they will be able to drive. The only time it was successful in Florida was when they had Virginia Tech – FSU. Who really wants to go to Jacksonville?
Gt4ever
May 11th, 2010
10:32 am
Still a stretch for Logistics for Home and Away game setup…. I really doubt that they leave the conference their in….. Time will tell..
Bryan
May 11th, 2010
10:36 am
Tide Rising – You’re right, GT to the SEC would fill their stadium practically every game. How humiliating will it be for GT to be playing “away” games in their own stadium though?!? ha!
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
10:37 am
Glad you brought up academics as I did some research and according to US News the following information came to light.
The average college ranking for each conference is;
ACC – 48.6
Big 10/11 – 50.18
Pac 10 – 89
SEC – 93
Big 12 – 99.91
Big East Football – 112
Neither of the ACC or the Big 10/11 have any school in Tier 3 or not rated. For the purpose of this study I gave an arbitrary 150 for a Tier 3 school, 175 for a Tier 4, and 200 for Not Rated (NR). The Pac 10 had one Tier 2 and one NR. The SEC had two Tier 3. The SEC had two Tier 3. Big 12 had three Tier 3. The Big east had 3 Tier 3 and one NR. If the Big 10 pick up ND only that would lift them to 47.6 and any combination of Rutgers, Nebraska, or Missouri would drop them as low as 58.28.
Bull Gator, you know of course that Vanderbilt had the best in the SEC at 17, Florida was second with 47. Of all major football colleges Stanford had the best at 4 followed by Duke 10, Northwestern 12 and both UVA and UCLA at 24 to finish the top 5.
GPB
May 11th, 2010
10:39 am
This is absurd. We already can’t happily decide who is the best team in the nation. Now you will never be able to establish who is the best team in a conference. Just great.
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
10:40 am
GT4, not any worse than Colorado or Iowa.
Yes
May 11th, 2010
10:40 am
Guarantee you if the Jackets get back in the SEC that our fan base WILL better support this team to actually get to see teams we want to see! I’ve been to every Tech game the last two years, but I would rather see Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina, and Tennessee any day over some of the other ACC schools. And Tech would compete better in the SEC than UM, MST, Vandy, KY, SC, and Arkansas. Write it down.
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
10:42 am
Pawley’s Island Jacket, GT won’t move, what would be the motive, small fish in big pond, or stay and be a bigger fish in a smaller pond FOR NOW.
Bull Gator
May 11th, 2010
10:43 am
I forgot about Vanderbilt, but I would go to Florida over Vanderbilt in a heartbeat even if Vanderbilt is ranked “higher”. Florida has better academic programs and a better college experience.
Bull Gator
May 11th, 2010
10:43 am
We are commonly known throughout the country as the Harvard of the South.
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
10:45 am
Yes, they would compete better than the afore mentioned schools, but will it be able to compete with Florida, Alabama, LSU or Georgia for the Conference Championship? No! They have a hard time competing for the ACC Championship.
OB-1
May 11th, 2010
10:47 am
Bull Gator, you might want to watch that in the future as Miami is ranked 50 to you 47. As far as the Harvard of the south I lay that at Duke.
Gt4ever
May 11th, 2010
10:54 am
Bull Gator, Harvard of the South, surely you jest…… That is funny……
Bull Gator
May 11th, 2010
10:58 am
The University of Florida is where the brightest students in America persue there dreams.
Atticus
May 11th, 2010
11:00 am
Eastern Division:
Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
Florida
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
South Carolina
Western Division:
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
LSU
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Delbert D.
May 11th, 2010
11:00 am
Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee and Florida merging with existing ACC schools to re-create the old Southern Conference. Interesting idea, big TV markets.
From what I read, Missouri and Nebraska have an offer from the Big Ten. Notre Dame may want BC, so they would probably stick with Rutgers to go to 16.
The remaining SEC western schools could merge with the Texas & Oklahoma schools.
If the expanded ACC loses BC, Vanderbilt would be a natural, but South Carolina would need a new home. Miami could go with the Texas/Oklahoma/Mississippi/LSU/Arkansas crowd, opening up another slot (who drives to Miami, anyway…they fly.) Either the new ACC or the new ex-Big 12 would love Kentucky for basketball. Better fit academically for the ex-Big 12.
Gt4ever
May 11th, 2010
11:01 am
Somebody WAKE Bull Gator UP!
Delbert D.
May 11th, 2010
11:12 am
From Atticus’ list of SEC-West
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
LSU
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Add existing Big 12:
Kansas
Kansas St.
Baylor
Texas Tech
Iowa St.
Add:
Kentucky
Miami
That’s 15 teams. Pick one more, Maybe TCU.
Bull Gator
May 11th, 2010
11:14 am
I can apply to any job in America and get it because I have a degree from the University of Florida.
Gt4ever
May 11th, 2010
11:20 am
OK, well then try applying for the POTUS job…… He may be more delusional than you are…..