There COULD be an Alabama-Florida rematch for national title
Don’t look now folks but we COULD have a rematch of the SEC championship game for the BCS national title.
I know I’ve said for weeks that this cannot happen, that the voters in the human polls would not allow a team that loses on championship Saturday to turn right around and play for the national title a month later. But now we are looking at the real numbers and the numbers do not lie.
Florida and Alabama are 1-2 in the latest BCS Standings. They are tied for the No. 1 spot in the computers. Look at the gap in the total rating between No. 2 Alabama (.9513) and No. 4 TCU (.8689) and No. 5 Cincinnati (.8547). Alabama has almost a full one-tenth of a point over TCU and Cincinnati. In this system that is huge! TCU (12-0) is done for the season and Cincinnati (11-0) plays a Pittsburgh team (9-2) that lost last week to West Virginia.
What does this mean? It means that if Texas loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game, the SEC championship game loser, if it is a really tight game, has a real chance to finish No. 2 in the final BCS Standings. That’s because the computers will still love them because their only loss this season was to a team ranked in the top two.
It will all come down to the human voters and how far they drop the SEC championship game loser. If the loser of that game only drops to No. 3 or No. 4 in the human polls, then it can finish No. 2 in the BCS standings because of the computers. So it could be that a 12-0 TCU, a 12-0 Cincinnati and a 13-0 Boise State get squeezed out.
Remember this: The voters in the human polls realized in 2006 that their votes set up the BCS championship matchup. That’s why they moved No. 4 Florida ahead of No. 3 Michigan in their final polls. Michigan had had its shot and lost to No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 USC had lost.
This also has a chance to be a repeat of 2003 when Southern California finished No. 1 in both human polls and did not get into the BCS championship game. If Texas loses on Saturday, then TCU or Cincinnati could finish No. 2 in the human polls but get left out of the big game in favor of a one-loss team from the SEC.
If Texas takes care of Nebraska on Saturday we will not have this argument. But if Texas loses, look out. If Florida and Alabama have a rematch for the national championship, those who want to blow up the BCS system will have a lot more ammunition that the system unfairly favors the elites of college football.
And boy, will that be a fun argument.
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Florabamageddon: Gators go without suspended Dunlap | Florida Sports Net
December 1st, 2009
10:49 pm
[...] • Game of the year, let’s play two! Not content to revel in just one awesome collision of rapidly expanding supernovas destined to blind the fools who look directly at the field during Saturday’s kickoff, veteran SEC guru Tony Barnhart went out of his way to rehash the prospects of an Alabama-Florida rematch for the national championship — with the Tide and Gators running so far ahead of would-be party crashers TCU and Cincinnati in the latest BCS standings, all it would take for the computers to get them back together in Pasadena is another reasonably close game and a Nebraska upset over Texas in the Big 12 Championship Saturday night: It will all come down to the human voters and how far they drop the SEC championship game loser. If the loser of that game only drops to No. 3 or No. 4 in the human polls, then it can finish No. 2 in the BCS standings because of the computers. So it could be that a 12-0 TCU, a 12-0 Cincinnati and a 13-0 Boise State get squeezed out. [...]
Wednesday Links « Leather Helmet Blog
December 2nd, 2009
6:44 am
[...] Barnhart – Gators/Tide rematch in BCS NC game [...]
Around the Interwebs | CollegeGameBalls: College Football at its Finest
December 2nd, 2009
11:52 am
[...] Championship Rematch? Theoretically, yes, it could happen. Will it? We don’t think so. The voters set the precedent in 2006 when they put Florida in the MNC against the Ohio State instead of Michigan. If total chaos plays out on Saturday, the human voters will get wind (via BCS math gurus) of how to vote to avoid said rematch. [...]
Hal
December 2nd, 2009
2:51 pm
Got an email from a ND insider. Bob Stoops hired by ND 12/2/09 2PM
bamafan
December 2nd, 2009
8:57 pm
The Bama UF game. This is a game ive been waiting for all year. I pull for the Gators when they arent playing the Tide.
Obviously the keys to the game are stop Tebow and Bama perform in the running game. Im sure UF will stack the line and force Gmac to pass. If he is sucessful, then I think Bama wins late with the running game. If Bama cant pass early, then it will be a long day. Tebow will get his yards and share of big plays. Bama has to limit that.
Here’s to a heck of a finish in the SECCG and the winner a shot at the BCS championship.
Joseph
December 5th, 2009
12:13 am
The SECCG is post-season; it shouldn’t hurt either team’s chances of playing in the BCS National Championship–but as we all know, it will. The uproar should be if there ISN’T a rematch in January.