Projecting the BCS bowls

 

 

We’re getting down to crunch time, so let’s a take minute to project the five BCS bowls and explain why the matchups will occur.

Just remember that the two bowls that lose their designated conference champs to the BCS title game go to the head of the line when it comes time to pick. The bowl that loses the No. 1 team picks first. The bowl that loses the No. 2 team picks second.

Then remaining conference champs are placed in their designated bowls: Big Ten/Pac-10 to Rose; Big 12 to Fiesta, SEC to Sugar, ACC to Orange.

Then the remaining slots in the games are filled with this order of selection: Orange, Fiesta, Sugar.

So here we go. If you disagree, please tell me why,.

 

 

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP, Jan. 7, 2010

Matchup: Alabama vs. Texas

How it happened: Florida and Alabama are locked into the SEC championship game on Dec. 5. They could be ranked 1-2. As was the case a year ago, the winner goes to the big game.  With Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M left, Texas should cruise to the Big 12 championship game and roll over the North Division champ.

 

ORANGE BOWL, Jan. 5, 2010

Matchup: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa

How it happened: Georgia Tech beats Duke on Saturday to clinch the ACC Coastal championship and then wins a rematch with Clemson in the ACC title game. After the automatic slots are filled in the BCS, the Orange Bowl will get the first pick. It will take Iowa at 10-2 because those Hawkeyes love to travel South in the winter.

 

FIESTA BOWL, Jan. 4, 2010

Matchup: USC vs. TCU

How it happened: Because it lost Big 12 champ Texas, the No. 2 team, to the national championship game, the Fiesta gets its pick of teams after the Sugar. Since there is no suitable replacement from the Big 12, the Fiesta takes USC, which will be 10-2 and ranked in the Top 10 if it wins its final three games with Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona. After the Orange takes Iowa, the Fiesta’s choices will be down to Cincinnati, TCU, Boise State or another two-loss conference runner-up. It will take TCU, which could be ranked as high as No. 3.

 

SUGAR BOWL, Jan. 1, 2010

Matchup: Florida vs. Cincinnati

How it happened: Because the Sugar’s designated champion (SEC) was ranked No. 1, the Sugar gets first pick among all the bowls after the BCS title game. The Sugar fills with Florida, the SEC runner-up. The Sugar will then pick last in the second rotation and will be left with Cincinnati, which gets an automatic bid as the Big East champ. 

 

ROSE BOWL, Jan. 1, 2010

Matchup: Ohio State vs. Oregon

How it happened: Ohio State (8-2) beats Iowa this week and Michigan next week to win the Big Ten championship. Oregon (7-2), which has only one loss in the Pac-10, recovers from its loss to Stanford and beats Arizona State, Arizona, and Oregon State to win the conference.

 

 

 

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621 comments Add your comment

tony's a homer

November 10th, 2009
7:30 am

I’m suprised you didnr comment about what officials should work what bowls. Are you finally getting over Georgia’s disasterous season?

RAMBLE ON!!!

November 10th, 2009
7:32 am

RAMBLE ON!!!

November 10th, 2009
7:32 am

Horace Brown

November 10th, 2009
7:34 am

Why are all the national pundits picking Alabama over Florida?

Lilburn Dawg

November 10th, 2009
7:34 am

That Sugar Bowl pairing will never happen!

JB

November 10th, 2009
7:35 am

My Dawgs will play in the Subway bowl in Destin on December 5 th. Grambling looks like the foe, somebody gotta give up the black helmets.

JB

November 10th, 2009
7:37 am

Horace, Because of Bama’s defense. Shut down Tebow, you shut down Florida. Bama can do it.

archangeladidas

November 10th, 2009
7:39 am

What, no uga dawgs in a bcs? WOW! I’m shocked. UF wins it all. GO GATORS!!!

reebok

November 10th, 2009
7:42 am

i agree w/ much of what you are saying, except i would flip ‘bama and florida…

It's a good thing...

November 10th, 2009
7:43 am

…those Iowa fans will travel south to Miami, ’cause, IF GT beats Clemson (and that is not a foregone conclusion – first because Clemson may not be there, and, 2nd, because if they are there, Clemson might even be favored since they have played better against common opponents – UM and Wake – at least to date – than Tech, and they will have the revenge factor) we know the GT fans will NOT travel south to Miami – heck, they hardly travel south to BDS!

RAMBLE ON!!!

November 10th, 2009
7:46 am

I want UF. We can show our little brothers in Athens how to, not only compete with them, but beat them.

Call it Like It Is

November 10th, 2009
7:49 am

What a crock you picked Alabama over Florida?

What is it this year with all the hate for the Gators from you media morons?

Flordia has the best defense in the nation, and oh BTW, they have a Class Act and true Leader in Tim Tebow! Need I say More?

Florida rolls to another SEC and NC!

Enough Said!

FactuAll

November 10th, 2009
7:51 am

I don’t know how anyone can predict bowl matchups at this juncture; there are too many moving parts.

I’m a Bama fan, but have yet to see a dominate team anywhere. If the top eight had a round-robin playoff, there is no telling who would be the National Champ.

But….here’s hoping that Tony is right. Texas-Bama would be an interesting game.

G Force

November 10th, 2009
7:52 am

With sputtering offenses and all things being equal on defense between Bama and Florida, I’d take Tebow over McElroy to advance to the championship game.

G Force

November 10th, 2009
7:55 am

I agree, FactuAll… we really haven’t seen a dominant team step up and separate themselves from the pack this year.

Sautee Dawg

November 10th, 2009
7:56 am

Tony
Bama can’t beat Gators by kicking fieldgoals.
Tech faithful won’t travel to Miami, they have problems traveling to Bobby Dood Stadium.
Ohio State will be embarrassed for the 3rd year in a row.
Bama will lose to somebody just don’t know who yet.

Perception

November 10th, 2009
7:57 am

“It’s a good thing” didn’t go to college

Brickhouse

November 10th, 2009
7:58 am

Tony – the Sugar will not get a choice between Cincy and Boise State. They are forced to take Cincy as the Big East champ and last remaining automatic berth.

FactuAll

November 10th, 2009
7:58 am

G Force

one thing about it, the next four weeks won’t be boring. Bama has two tough road games to win before they can even think about UF.

The SECCG may leave so many walking-wounded that Texas is habded a NC

FactuAll

November 10th, 2009
8:00 am

s/b handed, not habded….unless you’re battling a cold. Can’t survive without spellcheck

Gator Dawgpounder

November 10th, 2009
8:01 am

I think UF will beat Bama more handily than last year. People forget, Percy didn’t play in that game and the Gators were more physical than Bama. In the head to head comparisons: UF beat KY worse than Bama without Tebow in the 4th Qtr. They Beat LSU at LSU with Tebow being held back, UF beat Tenn by a larger margin after Tenn had all summer to prepare. The only common team that Bama beat by a larger margin was Ark. No brainer, UF to the BCS title game.

toga

November 10th, 2009
8:01 am

I hope your right, although you did pick LSU to beat Bama.

Roll Tide

Top Dawg

November 10th, 2009
8:01 am

How many more years before a staff has UGA in this discussion?

BAMA STAN

November 10th, 2009
8:04 am

12 NATIONAL TITLES – 21 SEC TITLES!!!

BAMA will have their hands full with FLORIDA. As good as both teams are – I think that both are beatable…… should be a great game in the DOME.

FLORIDA’S strength is their DEFENSE. When they gear it up – they are very good. ALABAMA will have to play a great game to win.

I would have to give FLORIDA the edge at this point because of TEBOW and the fact URBAN will have his team ready. I am concerned about our passing game.

However, ALABAMA can win this game – really looking forward to it!

Appreciate the vote of confidence.

ROLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL TIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

C. Tampa Ironworse

November 10th, 2009
8:05 am

Two corrections: Pitt will be Big East Champ AND Bosie State will take Iowa’s place. We need the Broncos…not the Iowa Fightin’ Basic Skills Tests in a BCS bowl.

Paul (You doesn't have to call me Johnson)

November 10th, 2009
8:06 am

The Gumps impressive 6 mythical national championships are exceeded only by their unprecedented NCAA violations and infractions. If Auburn beats Alabama (possible) and Alabama beats Florida (very possible) there will be no SEC team in the BCS Championship Game. What a nightmare for the BCS …..Texas vs TCU

JB

November 10th, 2009
8:08 am

Top Dawg…………………….Not next year either…………………..Although the line will be back with Murray, Ealey and AJ, the O could be better. A new DC could make a difference. We have an easier schedule. 8-4 possible next year.

Tom M

November 10th, 2009
8:08 am

Look I’m a Gator fan, so obvious I disagree on the championship- but I’m actually writing about the Fiesta bowl line-up.

I think it’s gonna be the bowl to shock all people: TCU vs Boise State!

Why?

Simple they need to sell out the bowl! Think about it, USC doesn’t travel well- no one is going to want to go to Arizona from LA… So why not get a 2 teams DYING to get in and will bring enough fans to sell out. Plus it would be a FAR more interesting game.

Seriously think- they don’t need to sell tv rights- that’s done. Commercials are done. Seats are the problem and ask yourself– January- Idaho or Arizona???

I know I’m nuts, but I think this will an economically driven bowl season… we’ll see a LOT of odd match-ups based on regions and traveling groups.

Eric

November 10th, 2009
8:09 am

I think you have to flip Florida and Bammer who could lose to Miss St this weekend. Those Bulldogs are much better than most people think. And there’s no gurantee Bammer’ll beat Auburn. Florida will probably win in ATL but by that time it won’t matter anyway.

JB

November 10th, 2009
8:10 am

Florida fans……off subject, but what about Gators next year without Tebow? please, no rah rah, real evaluation. How much of that great D do you lose?

G Force

November 10th, 2009
8:11 am

RAMBLE ON!!! — I’d like to see a GT-Florida or GT-Bama matchup. I think either one would provide a much better game than Bama or Florida vs Texas. But I think Texas and either Bama/Florida will remain undefeated, get the nod for the championship game, and the remaining bowl selections will preclude this from happening.

Paddy

November 10th, 2009
8:11 am

Sounds reasonable at this point. Still a few more upsets to watch before New Years. Just love college football. My Dawgs to the weed-eater bowl, damn.

Craig

November 10th, 2009
8:14 am

2 big 10 teams in the bcs? Not a chance. Esp Iowa who will get blown out this week. Iowa loses again, and they fall out of the bcs ranking too.

Tom M
It can’t be boise vs tcu because only one team from a small school conf can make it to a bcs game.

Hey Dogtards

November 10th, 2009
8:14 am

“Tech faithful won’t travel to Miami, they have problems traveling to Bobby Dood Stadium.”

HA. Bobby Dodd was more full (% wise) on Saturday than Sanford was. Sanford was more than 10% empty at homecoming. Maybe some mutt fans finally could afford a TV so they can watch the games at home.

Mutts are gonna have a problem filling up that POS stadium once all the bandwagon fans leave. Wait, what’s that you say? They already left? Nevermind.

DL

November 10th, 2009
8:16 am

JB – I believe the current count is that we could lose 8 or 9 on our starting defense and 5 or 6 on offense. It’ll be interesting to see how all of the young defensive studs we have on special teams right now will play in their actual positions.

Mike Slive

November 10th, 2009
8:17 am

SEC officials in Birmingham admit today that the fix is in. They did comment however, the task of keeping UA and UF undefeated wasnt all that tough, the hardest task of all was getting Georgia bowl eligible.

m

November 10th, 2009
8:17 am

Tony…your column proves once again what a lousy system that we have.

A completely made up mythical championship game and a bunch of meaningless bowl games that no one cares about.

Just think for a minute if all those games were the first or second round of a playoff system. It would be the most exciting sporting event in history.

What we have now is pathetic and anyone that supports the current system is a fool and a tool.

Larry

November 10th, 2009
8:18 am

Can’t wait to hear Gator fans (or NOT) after Alabama skins em!

Drake

November 10th, 2009
8:18 am

I think Miami wins out, plays USC in the fiesta and tcu plays GT in the orange. Not going to take a 2, maybe 3 loss 22nd ranked iowa team over a top 10 miami team tony.

Peadawg

November 10th, 2009
8:18 am

” If the top eight had a round-robin playoff…”

Nope. There would still be complaining. The only fair playoff it to take all the conference champions and seed them. Yes, that would mean sticking Notre Dame, Navy, and Army in a conference.

I Hate trailer trash

November 10th, 2009
8:19 am

Just in UGAY has been invited to the toilet bowl at Vince Dooley’s ranch in hahiram Ga. They are going to play the browns.

David

November 10th, 2009
8:20 am

In the interest of ticket sales (Clemson will bring around 35,000 vs Techs 5,000), the Orange Bowl will renege on its agreement to take the conference champion and will go with Clemson instead of conference champ Ga Tech.

Geez, Perception...

November 10th, 2009
8:21 am

I think “Its a good thing” makes a lot of sense. Why would you think he/she did not go to college? It is true that Tech folks have difficulty traveling south to Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field (or is it Historic Grant Field at Bobby Dodd Stadium).

Otto Strahl

November 10th, 2009
8:21 am

Greg McElroy isn’t going to beat UFs D. Bama and UF are dead even on defense and special teams. QB play will be the difference.

Gator Dawgpounder

November 10th, 2009
8:23 am

Bama Stan, good response. That’s why I respect Bama and most of it’s fans; intelligent football fans, know there team, history and the sport. I do believe that it will be a very, close and physical game and if McElroy was a more consistant QB, Bama would win. He is the key; if he plays well, Bama wins; if he is inconsistant, UF wins. Tebow and Bama running game are about equal, UF maybe holds a slight edge in defence and punting with Bama in field goal kicking. It’s a shame they can’t play in the BCS title game because they are clearly the best 2 teams in the country. GO GATORS and GO SEC!!

Hey, Drake...

November 10th, 2009
8:24 am

…what makes you think UM is a top 10 team? There are lots of 2 loss teams out there that are better than the 2 loss (to date) UM team.

PTC DAWG

November 10th, 2009
8:24 am

This just in, the UGA/GT game in Atlanta will not be played. GT and their fans think they’ve already won. It just keeps getting better and better.

I like GT’s Coach, he seems OK, but their fan base is a bit off kilter. Did they even sell out the Wake Game?

Jim Mora Jr.

November 10th, 2009
8:27 am

For the record, UGA was playing Tennessee Tech Saturday. I saw PLENTY of empty seats in Bobby Dud when Tech was playing a top-10 team in Virginia Tech last month! There’s a big difference.

FLNavigator

November 10th, 2009
8:30 am

JB, I think the Gators will be okay on offense. Brantley has looked good in backup situations, Rainey and Demps are SOPH’s and should return, and the whole O-line should be in tact (barring any injuries). They need to improve over this year and develop a deep threat to take some pressure off of Brantley.

On defense, the Gators lose players like Spikes, Doe and Cunningham, and there has been some talk about the possibility of Haden leaving early. I think the secondary will be fine (especially if Haden stays), as well as the D-line (which has a lot of depth). The biggest question in my mind is which of the SOPH LB’s will step up to fill the void.

WTH

November 10th, 2009
8:33 am

PTC Dawg,

“GT and their fans think they’ve already won.”

Please post a link where you have read that CPJ or any GT football players have stated they think they will win the UGA football game.
CPJ said earlier this year before the JSU game that he would club any of the players like a baby seal (you have love the guy) if he heard any of them mention Clemson. I am sure he would say the same thing now about UGA. There are a few GT fans talking about the UGA game being a sure thing. But all reasonable football fans know that very few games are sure things and virtually no rival games are sure things.

By the way, do you really think that GT is the only fan base with a few fans that are off kilter.

Of course it could be like my buddy HBTD says, I should not be trying to use reason or facts on these blogs.