There CAN be an Alabama-Florida rematch for BCS title

 

What we learned over the weekend:

1. There CAN be an Alabama-Florida rematch for the national championship. Last week I said that if Alabama and Florida were undefeated, ranked 1-2 and played a close SEC championship game, there would not be a rematch for the BCS title. That statement was based on the logical position that the human voters, who make up two-thirds of the BCS formula, would not watch one of those teams lose on Dec. 5 and less than 24 hours later vote them in to the BCS championship game.

 

But after seeing the first set of BCS standings on Sunday, I think it is now possible if No. 3 Texas loses at some point. That’s because there is a huge gap in the BCS average between No. 2 Alabama (.9526) and No. 4 Boise State (.8083) and No. 5 Cincinnati (.7870). Boise State’s computer ratings are only going to go down as the season progresses while Cincinnati’s will go up.

 

Secondly, I can’t remember when we’ve had this much of a competitive gap between the top two teams in the standings and the rest of the Top 10. Example: If you’re a voter in one of the polls, do you put a 12-0 Iowa into the big game over a 12-1 SEC team that just lost a close game to the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the nation?

 

 

2. Georgia Tech needs to pull for Clemson—hard. While it is possible that the ACC’s Coastal Division could end in a three-way tie among Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech, all of the tiebreakers are falling towards the Hurricanes because they won the head-to-head matchup with the Yellow Jackets.

If those three teams tie at 7-1, then the spot in the ACC championship game goes to the team with the highest BCS ranking on Nov. 29. Miami is 10, Georgia Tech is 12, and Virginia Tech is 14. So that favors Miami. If the top two teams in the BCS standings are within five spots of each other, the winner of the head to head competition gets the spot. That also favors Miami.

 

The point is that Georgia Tech could run the table, which would include a win over Georgia, and finish ahead of Miami in the BCS standings. But if Miami is within five spots of Georgia Tech, then the Hurricanes go because of the head-to-head results. So Georgia Tech’s best chance of getting to the ACC championship game is win out and hope that Miami stumbles somewhere. The Hurricanes have five conference games left against Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke.

 

 

 

3. Georgia really needs a week off. I got criticized last week for even suggesting that Georgia’s schedule was a contributing factor to the Bulldogs’ poor play at Tennessee on Oct. 10. The fact is that you will not find a team in the country whose first six games were stronger than Oklahoma State (5-1), South Carolina (5-2, with a loss to No. 2 Alabama), Arkansas (3-3, with losses to No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama), Arizona State (4-2), LSU (5-1 with a loss to No. 1 Florida), and Tennessee (3-3, with a loss to No. 1 Florida). There were no breathers in that bunch and teams get physically and emotional fatigued. You just can’t get up to play every week. You have to be able to win when you’re tired and don’t play well.

 

For those of you keeping score at home, Georgia last had a week off before the Florida game in 1997 and 2007. The Bulldogs won both games.

 

4. This Alabama team is much better than the one that started 12-0 last season. The Crimson Tide of 2008, which rose to No. 1, could really only beat you one way on offense. They would get behind that that huge offensive line and just grind you into submission. And that worked until Alabama played Florida in the SEC championship game. This Alabama team is much more diversified on offense, and showed it against South Carolina as running back Mark Ingram ran for 246 yards, with a lot of it coming out of the Wildcat formation. This team can do more things in the passing game with QB Greg McElroy (even though he has struggled for two straight games) and WR Julio Jones and TE Colin Peek. Defensively, despite the loss of LB Dont’a Hightower, the Crimson Tide can just beat you up. I believe all of this is by design because Alabama has been tweaking its team in anticipation of a rematch with Florida in the SEC championship game on Dec. 5.

 

5. Florida had no business beating Arkansas on Saturday. The Gators turned the ball over four times. Arkansas and QB Ryan Mallett were moving the ball with great consistency. The Arkansas defense had a great scheme to slow down the Florida running game. The game was looking like a carbon copy of Florida’s 31-30 loss to Ole Miss last year in the Swamp. But Florida did not lose because of No. 15, Tim Tebow. If he has any lingering effects from his concussion it did not show as Tebow carried the ball 27 times. When Arkansas missed a field goal that would have given them the Hogs the lead, was there any doubt No. 15 was going to take the Gators down the field and put them in a position to win? Tebow is the difference maker of all difference makers. That’s why the Gators will be undefeated when they play in the SEC championship game on Dec.  5.

 

 

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283 comments Add your comment

Greg

October 19th, 2009
1:10 pm

One team will lose when they play each other you dikhed. You must be a biased gator fan to say that the sec officiating last week wasn’t atrocious.

yellowjacket82

October 19th, 2009
1:12 pm

Gdawg idiot…do not try to interpret anybody’s post. You obviously are not smart enough.

Wishful Dawg

October 19th, 2009
1:15 pm

Wow, we beat Vandy and suddenly, the smart money is on UGA to beat UF?? Really??

Well, all we have to do to win is:

• Find a running game that can generate more than 2 yards per rush
• Have the O-line open some running lanes
• Make good decisions at QB
• Catch the ball
• Not make stupid penalties
• Get the right personnel on and off the field
• Make teams pay for playing us 1 dimensionally
• Get pressure on the QB
• Stop Tebow from gaining 5-10 yards whenever he wants
• Play tighter coverage (at least be in the TV picture when the receiver catches the ball.
• Guard against a fake punt or FG
• Return punts whenever possible
• Cover a kickoff (just go back to kicking out of bounds if we can’t do better than we’ve seen
• Not turn the ball over 3 times
• Actually get a turnover or two
• Occasionally get into the red-zone
• Call plays that enable us to sustain drives
• Make the occasional in-game adjustment
• If Logan Gray plays-use SOME imagination

Other than that, we should be fine!

Albert the Alligator

October 19th, 2009
1:18 pm

Florida/Bama at the dome for the SEC Title will be the National Title Game. If the winner of this game plays someone else then that someone else is going to be a sacrificial lamb.

Bad Dawg

October 19th, 2009
1:18 pm

Yellowjacket82:
Tell us how the Vandy game almost slipped away. Please?

[...] an Alabama-Florida rematch in the BCS title game.9.  Finally, Tony Barnhart of The AJC expounds on four things SEC fans learned over the weekend in his most recent blog post:* There CAN be an Alabama-Florida rematch for the national [...]

Thunder

October 19th, 2009
1:20 pm

Doesn’t Ohio State get the winner of the SECCG? Pretty sure it has already been decided.

Trade School Junkie

October 19th, 2009
1:27 pm

A FL-Bama re-match WILL NOT happen. It’s stupid & pointless question. But, I guess by now I should expect such crapola from TB.

But lets consider what would happen if there was a re-match.

How do you suppose the University Presidents, AD’s, Conference Directors…in ALL THE OTHER CONFERENCES… would repsond to a development like that?

They would tell the NCAA & the BCS to shove it up their azz.

BCS = (B)owl (C)artel (S)ystem

Gman

October 19th, 2009
1:29 pm

What makes a stereotype a stereotype?

A possible broken arm, asthma attack and “hurt” ankle are on the preliminary list of injuries from Saturday’s victory celebration after Tech beat then-No. 4 Virginia Tech 28-23

Nice that at Tech a “possible” broken arm and a “hurt” ankle make headlines. I understand there was another injury where a student was hit, “right where he lamost had an operation!” Of course, the asthma attack is hysterical. That is one tough student body at Tech. What carnage!

Diamond Dave

October 19th, 2009
1:33 pm

“You just can’t get up to play every week…” Really? Can’t get up 12 days out of 365? Isn’t that why these 19-20 year-olds are on full scholarship? That kind of attitude and statement is part of what’s wrong with today’s game.

Scott

October 19th, 2009
1:40 pm

You are correct Tony, Florida had no business beating them. Other than the score, they didn’t.
And that group of refs (same crew for LSU-UGA) have absolutely no business working in the SEC, or even HS football for that matter. That was just awful in the 4th qrt, call after call, I feel for the Hogs, and the Dog fans b/c that would make UF-UGA game chance to win the east.

Fleischman in Chi-Town's bed

October 19th, 2009
1:47 pm

Who let the dawwwwwwwwwwwgs out ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

4-3 ! just a few wins away from the nat’l championshoip.

Gatorzone

October 19th, 2009
1:48 pm

Diamond Dave

October 19th, 2009
1:33 pm
“You just can’t get up to play every week…” Really? Can’t get up 12 days out of 365? Isn’t that why these 19-20 year-olds are on full scholarship? That kind of attitude and statement is part of what’s wrong with today’s game.

I agree 100%. Perhaps it should read “with today’s recruits looking to jump to the NFL ASAP and no real allegiance to their college team…you can’t get up for every game”

Vast Striped Shirt Conspiracy

October 19th, 2009
1:59 pm

OK Bizarro Dale, you prove the adage “never underestimate the stupidity of a dawg”. When someone goes around claiming a conspiracy exists, it is THEY who bear the burden of proof. In your UFO analogy, it would be the UFO freaks that should prove that UFO’s exist; not NASA. I’ve seen no Dawg, yourself included, that is interested in proving that the officials have it in for Georgia. Until you provide such proof, you’re a moron.

Anonymous

October 19th, 2009
2:05 pm

Albert:

Da truth.
p.s., How do you type a post on a computer keyboard or PDA with those bulky gloves on?

As a long suffering MSU fan....

October 19th, 2009
2:07 pm

I feel pretty good about the Fla game Sat. Even though they are 3-4, they are getting better each week. Mullins knows the Fla program like the back of his hand and will have the Dogs fired up! Also, the game should help UGA because of the physical type of game they play. Win or lose – Fla will know they were in a tough game.

G8R GRAD

October 19th, 2009
2:21 pm

Dear long suffering MSU fan,

I feel your pain.
While I was a Gator student, we got our fannies handed to us weekly.
Hang in there.
Dan Mullen is a fine coach and will steer you program in the right direction.
And good luck on Saturday.

Got 12?

October 19th, 2009
2:22 pm

Refs are human. They probably pull for certain teams like the rest of us. (I know refs can’t officiate their alma mater’s games.)

J Dub

October 19th, 2009
2:45 pm

I like your style Wishful Dawg. The win against Vandy and the narrow win for Florida has not changed my outlook on the UGA/FL game. I will go in cheering my heart out and hope with all hope that UGA pulls out the win but until we address some major issues, we are not going to win big games. Truth’s the Truth.

dumptruckeddiesdog

October 19th, 2009
2:58 pm

Tony,

Don’t you think for a second that Boise St. or TCU can’t beat Florida or Alabama. Ofcourse Vegas will have them 2 touchdown favorites but these are two great football programs and are very competitive. Chris Peterson has been a master game planner and if he gets 6 weeks to prepare for Tebow you can bet he will have a wrinkle nobody has ever seen. SEC fans are really blind to the smaller schools and we don’t blame them however it could be a nightmare for the BCS system if Boise St. was to upset Florida in the BCS Title Game which is very possible whether you like it or not. Be aware of what these other teams are doing outside the South or another beating like Utah did last year can happen again. These nonbcs teams can compete with the SEC its mostly been the Big 10 teams that cant compete with the SEC. Boise St. can explode of Texas also and hold them to negative yards rushing the way the Longhorns are playing. It’s a long season still and no way 2 SEC teams should ever play for the title. The SEC officiating is such a mess that it is turning into the joke of college football. Most call it the WWE its becoming so rigged for the higher ranked team.

Dale

October 19th, 2009
2:58 pm

Conspiracy,

And to do that one should review “video of ALL SEC games this year and figure out how many bad calls there were, who the team was that was hurt by the bad call, and look at the totals by team” then report back to you? Because without those specific results, the premise is false. Do the American gene pool a favor and hold your breath. Lunatic.

Dale

October 19th, 2009
3:00 pm

DC Dawg, while you follow the model the Ditka Superfans.

Angry Dawg

October 19th, 2009
3:03 pm

Florida and meyer have the SEC refs in their pocket. Georgia will have to play out of their minds to beat florida and their hand picked, Gator loving refs! But, upsets can happen, especially if florida plays bad again in 2 weeks! Georgia’s got their mojo back baby—-huge upset will happen in Jax.

Mark

October 19th, 2009
3:03 pm

If Al and FL do meet in the title game which one will the referee’s cheat for. Will we need two crews one to cheat for each team. Texas doesn’t have much of a chance to pass either onr at this rate. Is that the SEC goal?!!!

MaDoubleT

October 19th, 2009
3:24 pm

dumptruckeddiesdog

October 19th, 2009
3:26 pm

Tony,

How about both SEC teams lose 2 games do you like a rematch of Boise St. vs. Oregon in the title game if they both win out? I know the South and East coast media would be upset but put the two best teams in the game and let them play. Boise St. always comes to play in bowl games win or lose and I think they could beat anybody in the country in Pasadena this year even USC.

[...] and are the two top teams in the first BCS Standings. The AJC’s Tony Barnhardt thinks that this is a possibility with the huge gap that exists between these two teams and the rest of the BCS. There is no way you can convince me that an undefeated Iowa team deserved to play for a [...]

dumptruckeddiesdog

October 19th, 2009
3:30 pm

Sometimes I wonder if maybe TCU vs Boise St. should be the BCS title game. I had no problem with Boise St. vs. Utah in the title game last year and still to this day think that should have been the game.

Tide Rising

October 19th, 2009
3:32 pm

It would be terribly unfair to ask Bama to beat Florida twice and vice versa. If we beat UF I would much rather play Texas or Iowa than have to face the gators a 2nd time. Can you imagine having to beat those guys twice? And it wouldn’t be right to leave out an undefeated or once beaten Texas or Iowa team either even if most are of the opinion that Bama and UF are the 2 best teams.

As for the possible Ohio State and Michigan rematch that would truly have been a travesty since both of those teams were exposed in their bowl games as not being the best 2 teams to begin with. It was all ESPN media hype that had some people thinking rematch.

We still have a lot of tough games left and I wouldn’t be that surprised if either or both Bama and UF both drop a game. Bama still has LSU, Auburn, and a MSU team that I still think will surprise someone. Besides, if we drop one game and its LSU that we lose to then they could run the table, win the division, and the whole point of this national title rematch is mute. Then we could start an argument as to whether or not Bama would deserve a shot at the title game without having won our division. Wouldn’t that be something and I’m surprised no one seems to be talking about this as a real possibility?

I agree with Tony’s analysis of Georgia’s schedule. With rest the dawgs can come back fresh against UF and give the gators a game. If they can limit the turnovers and penalties and AJ has a big game UGA has a shot at an upset. I’m convinced South Carolina is tough and I think they can give the gators a tough game also

Bama was terrible this weekend. 10 penalties for 123 yds, 4 turnovers, McElroy’s worst performance this season. The old adage holds true that defense can be depended on but offense can have a bad day as our qb did. Good thing our defense just suffocates opponents. Ryan Mallett 7 pts, Jevan Snead 3 pts, and now Stephen Garcia 6 pts and no tds allowed in the last 2 games against sec competition. Thank you defense.

Florida, like Bama this weekend, looked bad and seems to have offensive issues this year without Harvin and Louis Murphy on the edge. 23 pts vs UT, 23 vs Ark, 13 vs LSU. But like Bama the gators have an all star defense and defense wins championships. Besides, ya just can’t count Tebow out no matter what and he got it done again Saturday. Still a lotta ball to be played folks

Tide4u2c

October 19th, 2009
3:32 pm

I know this might sound like nit-picking but I noticed they have Florida’s strength of schedule way too high while ranking Alabama’s too low which is giving Florida the edge for their #1 ranking. Now we all know going into the season Florida had the easiest schedule in the SEC.How is their strength of schedule much higher than Bama’s? Bama has beat 3 or 4 ranked teams while Florida has only beat 1.

robodawg

October 19th, 2009
3:35 pm

If Texas loses to a midlevel team (which is all that’s left on their schedule), and Florida and Bama run the table, yeah, a rematch could definitely happen. Especially if the SEC championship game is a close game. And ESPECIALLY if Bama is the team that wins that game, because there will be a lot of noise on ESPN for Tebow to get a chance at the title.

JOHN MITCHELL

October 19th, 2009
3:35 pm

Hey gatorgrowl, you can call all of us cry babies but the truth is you would have lost if not for the zebras. Your wide receiver Cooper committs pass inteference on most plays (just like he did on his TD aginst LSU), and why does Timmy get a pass on excessive celebration that nobody else does? I want the best team to represent the SEC and even with all the help, it’s not you gayturds.

Dale

October 19th, 2009
3:45 pm

Copy that robo. Gotta have more Tebow.

Erk Russell Lives!

October 19th, 2009
3:46 pm

The reason Bama and UF won’t play for the BCS title is this:

If whoever loses the SECCG wins in the MNC game, then the teams will be 1 and 1… how can you call one better than the other if they’re 1 and 1 in back-to-back games? That’s why Mich and OSU didn’t rematch a few years back… it would be inconclusive

I'm Tommy from the T.V. show Cheaters

October 19th, 2009
3:48 pm

We know one thing for sure about the BCS National Title Game, the Dawgs will not be there.

G8R GRAD

October 19th, 2009
3:50 pm

Tide Rising:

Well said.

This season looks a lot longer after UF’s performance this weekend (and last) than it did in September!

dumptruckeddiesdog

October 19th, 2009
3:59 pm

The SEC will not win the championship in Pasadena unless they play Iowa and I will tell you why. Boise St. and USC can feel easy and relaxed with not that far to travel and we know how SEC schools hate to travel out of the timezone. Tony Barnhardt makes smart picks most of the time but to just flat out assume can make you look foolish. Boise St. is highly motivated and TCU has speed that hang in there with Florida’s defense. Gary Patterson will highly thought of for alot of BCS jobs in the future too.

Why not Tebow?

October 19th, 2009
4:04 pm

The calls against Arkansas were terrible. Ask yourself this –why doesn’t Tebow get called for excessive celebration? His offenses are egregious when compared with what other players are being called for. Is it love or racism? I actually think it’s love (see above — 11 SI covers in a year) but have heard the racism question raised. The SEC needs be consistent regardless of player or team.

chuck

October 19th, 2009
4:08 pm

When you play Florida you are going to play 11 against 17. The Florida players and the officials. If you are watching you know what I mean.

G8R GRAD

October 19th, 2009
4:08 pm

Even though UF averaged 41 points per game the last two years and we are averaging just 25 points per game against SEC opponents this year, let’s not let a couple of tough games give us a defeatist mentality.
Bear in mind:
The Gators are still leading the league overall in scoring offense, total offense and rushing offense!

GO GATORS!

Tide4u2c

October 19th, 2009
4:10 pm

dumptruckeddiesdog,

I’ll tell you why you are wrong.Utah would not have beat Florida last year eventhough Utah was undefeated last year.They would’nt have beat Alabama had the same Alabama team that won 12 games in a row had showed up.This is why playoffs would not change who wins the NC game. If that sugar bowl Bama and Utah played in had been for the NC Utah would not have beat Alabama and I don’t think they could’ve beat Oklahoma either.Just like in basketball a little team might make it to the playoffs but the big teams win in the end.

red hill

October 19th, 2009
4:12 pm

Absolutely NOT on a UA/UF rematch. As was applied to UGA in ‘07 it is now de facto law that one must win the conference to play for it. The loser should be sent to another bowl. Typical media bias. OU, UT, UF, UA, USC would have all played for it in ‘07. BCS=BS. THW UA AND UF.

The refs

October 19th, 2009
4:19 pm

Quit your whining you gator haters! Of course Florida and Tebow get preferential calls. Of course Tebow can jump up and down all day long bringing attention to himself and failing and wailing his arms like a chicken with its head cut off. Don’t you know? He’s TIM TEBOW!

dumptruckeddiesdog

October 19th, 2009
4:25 pm

I disagree. Utah look far superior to Alabama and Florida would not have faired much better either. A good hurry up offense will turn SEC defenses into swiss cheese and don’t forget Utah and Boise St. are top defenses. The chip on these team’s shoulders is as big as an SEC fan’s ego. Utah proved they were a notch better than Florida last year and TCU can do the same thing if they run the table.

G8R GRAD

October 19th, 2009
4:28 pm

The refs are NOT conspiring to allow certain programs succeed over others.
Mistakes are made by everyone, some more often than others.
EVEN those on this blog!
What’s next?
Obama and the entire intelligence community are under deep cover in college football?
Please give it a rest.

GACRIMSON

October 19th, 2009
4:29 pm

Tony,Stinger’s comments make me think he’s a billy goat on top of a mountain west conference-you just keep doin what you do.Sorry for you loss and welcome back……..also enjoying your tv program and sat.analysis……….rtr everybody !

Tide4u2c

October 19th, 2009
4:30 pm

Tell us who has TCU beat that is ranked?

Dale

October 19th, 2009
4:32 pm

Erk, but that was exactly the scenario to Florida’s 1996 NC. Florida State beat them last game of the year, then UF won the rematch and was crowned.

Navigator

October 19th, 2009
4:34 pm

I rather think that unlikely. There will be a bunch of one loss teams waiting to replace the loser of that game. My feeling is the BCS would love to have either Texas or Southern Cal play the winner of the Alabama – Florida SEC championship. You’re talking about big fan support and big money.

Tide4u2c

October 19th, 2009
4:37 pm

If Alabama can make it I’d much rather Alabama play USC for the NC.