There CAN be an Alabama-Florida rematch for BCS title

 

What we learned over the weekend:

1. There CAN be an Alabama-Florida rematch for the national championship. Last week I said that if Alabama and Florida were undefeated, ranked 1-2 and played a close SEC championship game, there would not be a rematch for the BCS title. That statement was based on the logical position that the human voters, who make up two-thirds of the BCS formula, would not watch one of those teams lose on Dec. 5 and less than 24 hours later vote them in to the BCS championship game.

 

But after seeing the first set of BCS standings on Sunday, I think it is now possible if No. 3 Texas loses at some point. That’s because there is a huge gap in the BCS average between No. 2 Alabama (.9526) and No. 4 Boise State (.8083) and No. 5 Cincinnati (.7870). Boise State’s computer ratings are only going to go down as the season progresses while Cincinnati’s will go up.

 

Secondly, I can’t remember when we’ve had this much of a competitive gap between the top two teams in the standings and the rest of the Top 10. Example: If you’re a voter in one of the polls, do you put a 12-0 Iowa into the big game over a 12-1 SEC team that just lost a close game to the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the nation?

 

 

2. Georgia Tech needs to pull for Clemson—hard. While it is possible that the ACC’s Coastal Division could end in a three-way tie among Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech, all of the tiebreakers are falling towards the Hurricanes because they won the head-to-head matchup with the Yellow Jackets.

If those three teams tie at 7-1, then the spot in the ACC championship game goes to the team with the highest BCS ranking on Nov. 29. Miami is 10, Georgia Tech is 12, and Virginia Tech is 14. So that favors Miami. If the top two teams in the BCS standings are within five spots of each other, the winner of the head to head competition gets the spot. That also favors Miami.

 

The point is that Georgia Tech could run the table, which would include a win over Georgia, and finish ahead of Miami in the BCS standings. But if Miami is within five spots of Georgia Tech, then the Hurricanes go because of the head-to-head results. So Georgia Tech’s best chance of getting to the ACC championship game is win out and hope that Miami stumbles somewhere. The Hurricanes have five conference games left against Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke.

 

 

 

3. Georgia really needs a week off. I got criticized last week for even suggesting that Georgia’s schedule was a contributing factor to the Bulldogs’ poor play at Tennessee on Oct. 10. The fact is that you will not find a team in the country whose first six games were stronger than Oklahoma State (5-1), South Carolina (5-2, with a loss to No. 2 Alabama), Arkansas (3-3, with losses to No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama), Arizona State (4-2), LSU (5-1 with a loss to No. 1 Florida), and Tennessee (3-3, with a loss to No. 1 Florida). There were no breathers in that bunch and teams get physically and emotional fatigued. You just can’t get up to play every week. You have to be able to win when you’re tired and don’t play well.

 

For those of you keeping score at home, Georgia last had a week off before the Florida game in 1997 and 2007. The Bulldogs won both games.

 

4. This Alabama team is much better than the one that started 12-0 last season. The Crimson Tide of 2008, which rose to No. 1, could really only beat you one way on offense. They would get behind that that huge offensive line and just grind you into submission. And that worked until Alabama played Florida in the SEC championship game. This Alabama team is much more diversified on offense, and showed it against South Carolina as running back Mark Ingram ran for 246 yards, with a lot of it coming out of the Wildcat formation. This team can do more things in the passing game with QB Greg McElroy (even though he has struggled for two straight games) and WR Julio Jones and TE Colin Peek. Defensively, despite the loss of LB Dont’a Hightower, the Crimson Tide can just beat you up. I believe all of this is by design because Alabama has been tweaking its team in anticipation of a rematch with Florida in the SEC championship game on Dec. 5.

 

5. Florida had no business beating Arkansas on Saturday. The Gators turned the ball over four times. Arkansas and QB Ryan Mallett were moving the ball with great consistency. The Arkansas defense had a great scheme to slow down the Florida running game. The game was looking like a carbon copy of Florida’s 31-30 loss to Ole Miss last year in the Swamp. But Florida did not lose because of No. 15, Tim Tebow. If he has any lingering effects from his concussion it did not show as Tebow carried the ball 27 times. When Arkansas missed a field goal that would have given them the Hogs the lead, was there any doubt No. 15 was going to take the Gators down the field and put them in a position to win? Tebow is the difference maker of all difference makers. That’s why the Gators will be undefeated when they play in the SEC championship game on Dec.  5.

 

 

 Please follow me on Twitter:

http://twitter.com/MrCFB

283 comments Add your comment

Trade School Junkie

October 19th, 2009
9:47 am

Yeh, last year GA had 2 full weeks to prepare for GT. Didnt help.

CharlotteGator

October 19th, 2009
9:47 am

Gary,

Yes. I wasn’t a big fan of that one to be honest. I know the argument can be made that the first game was in Tallahassee (that’s why I wrote neutral site series) and there was shaky officiating at best, but in the end, if I’m honest, it wasn’t a good way win your first. Obviously, I’ll take it and now crystals are going to be given back, but if I’m trying to be objective, then no, it’s not how you want to win a title.

Thanks for trying to call me out though. Appreciate it.

T

October 19th, 2009
9:48 am

so .. Tony is saying.. .Georgia beats Florida?? Tony, you are one big homer… there is no way Georgia beats Florida this year… in fact, it will probably be very ugly.

Denver Dog

October 19th, 2009
9:48 am

Charlotte Gator, we usually agree, but you need to rethink your statement about Arkansas. Tech looks good, but vulnerable on defense. However, they should be able to make it to a BCS game, and they are a lot better than Cincy, Boise, and others ahead of them. Bama and UF should be one for the ages, if they both make it to the SEC championship game. Would South Carolins fared any differently if they had the starting running back playing, and would UF have shown alot more with Spikes? Who knows? Should be a good remainder of the year for all of us fans. Whoever this m guy is, UCONN is not in the ACC

KR

October 19th, 2009
9:49 am

Auburn has completely come apart. Things would appear to get worse in the remaining 5 games. Chizik and company need to sit down and seriously evaluate what they are doing differently now from what they did earlier this season. Most disturbing to me is how ineffective Auburn’s defense has become. I would expect better from a defensive guy like Gene Chizik.

However, before people start trying to run Chizik out of town, they need to remember that this is still his first season at Auburn. Nick Saban went 7-6 his first season at Alabama (not so long ago either), and things appear to working out much better for them lately.

Florida looked pretty shaky this weekend; I don’t know if that’s because Arkansas is better than expected or Florida is not as good as expected.

Alabama looked to me like the number one team in the nation. I’ll be curious to see if they can keep up their level of performance down the remaining stretch of games.

I personally don’t think that the BCS championship game should be a rematch of the SEC championship game, regardless of who wins it.

CharlotteGator

October 19th, 2009
9:50 am

I meant no, not now. Guess it’s back to work for me…

Ohmylawad

October 19th, 2009
9:51 am

With the week off and Florida having to play, there will be no excuse for GA not beating Florida. However, Georgia fans will FIND an excuse if that happens. Let’s see, it could be :

1) The officials are biased toward whomever we play
2) Our entire offensive line is patched together
3) Our team was up late the night before studying, as evidenced by our team GPA being the highest ever recorded
4) We’re not playing anyone that’s not a true freshman
5) Mike Bobo was preoccupied with thoughts of having more children
6) As everyone knows, even though we get half of the tickets, JAX is NOT a neutral site.
7) Our boom box wasn’t working and we couldn’t que up any hip-hop to dance to.
8) Did we say the officials are against us ?
9) It’s the officials, stupid.
10) The officlating, of course.

RetiredSoldier

October 19th, 2009
9:54 am

Like many Gator fans it’s fun to see others crying about Gator success. This time though I am concerned. No one has mentioned it yet, but the Gator offensive line is getting the you know what kicked out of them. I think that’s the reason our offensive numbers have been down. It’s hard to pass with someone always in your face or hard to run when there isn’t a hole to get into the secondary.

Urban needs to solve the line problem or a second national title will not be in Gainesville. Go Gators!

JB

October 19th, 2009
9:55 am

One thing is CERTAIN. If Georgia was number ONE and had just played that game against Arkansas, THEY would have dropped in the polls. Don’t get me wrong, Florida is good, but they have not played up to their pre season billing. Keeping them number one all year based on their performance is kin to an arranged marriage. The TV folks want Gators and Tebow in that title game. If Bama wins the SEC game, which I think they do, will Bama play Texas for the Title ?

FF

October 19th, 2009
9:58 am

Stinger
This refutes Tony’s point. Ga’s schedule was not that hard. They played two ranked teams, none being in the top 10. Woo,. Most teams have at this point. But anyway, I will go with Sagarin. He has ga’s schedule as the 10th toughest. Tony has to make excuses for his team. Btw, gt’s schedule is ranked harder than ga’s. And it’s true.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

gte268p

October 19th, 2009
10:05 am

Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t uga also have an off week before last year’s GT-uga game? We all know how that ended!

Also, if Tech, Miami, and Virginia Tech all win out, it likely will not come down to the Miami/GT head to head tiebreaker, but to a draw since all 3 teams likely will be within 5 spots of each other as they are now!

12 & 21

October 19th, 2009
10:07 am

Hey Eric I can’t help but notice that you have been MIA for the last 2 weeks. So how are the Barndwellers looking these days? Beginning to see just how over matched Coach Cheesedip really is? Well pal it ain’t gonna get any better (LSU, UGA, Ole Miss and of course Bama) are all waiting to deliver some pain. See ya on 11/27/09

Trade School Junkie

October 19th, 2009
10:07 am

FF: Nice Link.

I guess the USATODAY newspaper & Sagarin DONT EXIST in Tony’s World.

Reality Check

October 19th, 2009
10:10 am

Tony – I know you usually don’t respond to questions posted on here but I am hoping you will. It has become clear that week in and week out that the SEC officials have their on agenda. Do you honestly believe that the SEC officials are corrupt or do you believe these bad call are just a matter or circumstance? I would love to hear your opinion.

2N4YEARS

October 19th, 2009
10:12 am

Paul H, I couldn’t agree more. Florida had 3 calls that went there way –and one ‘no-call’ on the offensive pass interference. The refs should be fired for deciding the outcome of a game lilke that.

charliedawg

October 19th, 2009
10:13 am

Florida was clearly not up for the Arkansas game. They will have no such problem for the game with UGA. I predict another beat down in J’ville. I hope it’s not the case, but let’s be real.

Gagata

October 19th, 2009
10:18 am

Who wants to see a rematch? Ask the television networks.

Greg

October 19th, 2009
10:21 am

Tony this schedule is harder than your dawgs.
Sat, Sep 5 (11) LSU L 23-31 —
Sat, Sep 12 Idaho W 42-23 —
Sat, Sep 19 (3) USC W 16-13 —
Sat, Sep 26 at Stanford L 14-34 —
Sat, Oct 3 at Notre Dame L 30-37 —
Sat, Oct 10 Arizona W 36-33 —
Sat, Oct 17 at Arizona State L 17-24

Logical Call

October 19th, 2009
10:21 am

Oh get real! No way the SEC has two teams in the NC game. NO WAY PERIOD!!! The conference championship games prevent this from happening. Take away the conference game and these two teams would not have played each other and then…YES it would likely happen. The conference championship game means these two teams will not play even if the result is Bama vs Boise.

But…UF will lose a game before facing Bama. Georgia will beat UF this year. Largely based on the reasons mentioned above for Georgia. Georgia will be rested while UF will be worn from playing several physical games in a row. But also because UF can’t run the ball and they lack an effective passing game. They are simply over rated this year and the soft schedule has kept them winning. Shoot, MSU may even surprise them this Saturday.

Bama is the cream of the nation and the SEC but they will face a once or twice beaten UF in the conference championship game before facing Texas.

Eric

October 19th, 2009
10:23 am

Get real ladies. The voters love UF and UA and they love Urban and Nick. It’s not only possible that there’ll be a rematch, it’s likely. If they both win out and play well in the SEC championship game, look for a rematch. Auburn’s loss to KY was tough to take, but it doesn’t mean the season is over. We’re Auburn and we WILL be back. I know the bammers are loving it and I don’t blame them. I loved it when we were kickin their butts on a regular basis. But don’t get too used to sweetcheeks. It won’t last forever and that’s a promise. War Eagle!!!

Saint Simons

October 19th, 2009
10:23 am

my peepee is so little!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Vanillia Ice

October 19th, 2009
10:27 am

It’s probably been stated on here already, but I’m sure we all remember the talk from several years ago when the “two best teams in the country” were Michigan and Ohio St. Now clearly this was the begining of the end (thank goodness) of the Little 11 media bias. It still exist, obviously, but the homers are now forced to bite their tongues. But both Michigan and Ohio St. went on to get destroyed in their respective bowl games that year. Clearly the SEC is heads and shoulders better than the Little 11, but unfortunately I think the voters will remember that season and the loser of the SECCG will pay the price for yet more Little 11 failures.

Name (required)

October 19th, 2009
10:30 am

UF, for whatever reason, is not nearly as strong as they were last year. They can be beat, and UGA can do it if the offense and defense are both on the same page during the same game for a change. I definitely won’t put any money on it, but I would be less surprised with a UGA win this year as I would have been last year.

It'sallcrap

October 19th, 2009
10:31 am

I’m a Bama grad, but I don’t want a rematch of Bama-UF in the NC game, no matter who wins. I like the idea that it’s a playoff into the NC game. If you can’t win your conference championship, you shouldn’t be allowed in the NC game. Simple as that. Unfortunately, weaker conferences like the Pac-10 and Big 10 don’t have conference championship games. I believe the SEC cg game this year will be the REAL national championship game anyway. Plus, if Bama wins, I’d like for them to face a team like Texas or USC for the NC.

As for UGA, what’s wrong? There’s no sense in a great program like UGA getting blown out by Tennessee. Crompton is a loser, and I have a feeling he’s going to be spending a long time on his back this Saturday. But there’s no question UGA has had the toughest non-conference schedule of any SEC team, and maybe that’s taken a toll. I sure hope the Dog solve their problems by the Florida game. UF can definitely be beat this year. Their offense is very one dimensional with basically just Tebow. Their defense keeps them in every game. But the refs gave them that one Saturday. Without those bogus calls, UF doesn’t get that TD and they lose that game. Still, someone has to close the deal on them. UGA can do it. I think all of us in the SEC (except Gator fans) are getting tired of this Tebow love fest. Bama nearly beat them with 16 freshmen in the game last year. It’ll be a far different story with Bama’s depth this year.

Tide Roll

October 19th, 2009
10:32 am

Florida’s offense is way down this year—-bama wins the SEC title game, and beats Texas for the national title—#13 in the trophy case baby!!!!

Bama 30 Florida 23–mark it down! Take it to the bank!

DawginLex

October 19th, 2009
10:32 am

I’m obviously a Dawg but I call them like I see them.

I am not impressed with Florida right now at all. They seem to be floundering worse each week. They won Saturday because of #15 and that is it. He is their Herschel. Period.

There should be no rematch. The SEC champion should probably be included in the national title game if both are undefeated. My bet is that Bama will be undefeated. Florida is vulnerable much more so than Bama. However, Tebow will beat Bama in the SECCG. Both end up with one loss.

Texas is horrible. The Big 12 is horrible. If Miami loses, GT should be able to win out and go to the ACC title game. The problem there is facing a Clemson team that will be very confident and playing with nothing to lose. I still think Gt wins.

The title game will be Florida and GT or Florida and Miami.

Based on what I saw Saturday, NO ONE wants any part of playing GT and facing that option. I like my crow deep fried. :)

#2 BAMA FAN

October 19th, 2009
10:34 am

Hey sweetcheeks (Eric) you better get ready to hear that famous line Yes sir may I have another loss
for the cow college, MORE IS ON THE WAY!! RTR

RAMBLE ON!!!

October 19th, 2009
10:36 am

Damn, DawginLex!!!

I knew you had a smart College football mind, but you heart got in the way.

I see, you’re listening with your head now.

Nice job.

All Knowing

October 19th, 2009
10:36 am

I predict (so you KNOW it’s gonna happen) FL, AL and TX all lose a game this year. I also predict (so you can take it to the bank) that Boise St and Cincy are gonna run the table and finish 1-2 in the BCS. Should be a helluva national championship matchup.

slaw_dawg

October 19th, 2009
10:39 am

im a huge SEC fan, yet I believe that a Florida- Alabama BCS championship game would be competly unfair. If Iowa, or Cincy (screw boise & the WAC) goes 12-0 then they should jump a 1 lose SEC team. I still believe that a teams record is more important than computer formulas.

To make it as easy as possible, every BCS conference should have a championship game. The SEC does it right. The SEC names an undisputed chmapion every Decemeber in the dome. Why cant these other conferences get with the program?

Hey

October 19th, 2009
10:42 am

I think Altamaha must be on one of them high-aytuses.

It'sallcrap

October 19th, 2009
10:42 am

All Knowing,
Of course Boise and Cincy are going to run the table because they don’t play anybody. (I’m chomping at the bit to see that big clash between Boise and Idaho… whoopeee… :-) .

Either Bama or Florida will be in the NC game this year, even with a loss. Teams like Boise and Cincy should ALWAYS be penalized for not playing major BCS conference teams. Until they have the guts to schedule real teams instead of high schools, they’ll have to settle for whining about not making the NC game with their big undefeated records.

G8R GRAD

October 19th, 2009
10:43 am

I told some buddies Saturday night that UF would not beat UA playing the way we did against Arky and that the Tide deserved the #1 ranking since they are playing better on both sides of the ball than is UF.
Apparently, the AP agreed.
The Georgia game has become a much more daunting challenge than I had previously thought.
Regarding a rematch, good points all Tony, but the way the Gators are playing, we may not survive undefeated either – hence, UA plays Texas in Pasadena, in my humblest estimation.

SEC Fan

October 19th, 2009
10:43 am

If anyone mounts a challenge against the gators or the tide, the officials step in to right the ship. If anyone beats either of them they will have to overcome some bad calls. Arkansas almost pulled it off but the officials found a way to get it done. How can florida fans not see it? This situation is embarrassing for our league. Mike Slive will do anything to generate more money.

Confrused

October 19th, 2009
10:44 am

Stinger, Ramble On, M, I guess if you are going to say that Barnharts credibility is gone because of his continued discussions about SEC football (which is truly the only football worth talking about around this part of the country), then we can TRULY say that Schultz has no credibility and has completely lost his mind with his “12 steps for GT to make it to the NCG”. What complete journalistic fluffery to catter to the 12 GT fans that feel they are being overlooked because they have squeaked by some overrated ACC opponents. GET A GRIP!!!

Confrused

October 19th, 2009
10:45 am

before you bash, I meant to say “cater” instead of catter…..keyboard slip

RAMBLE ON!!!

October 19th, 2009
10:49 am

No problem, Confrused…I suppose you didn’t mean to Confused?!?

The sooner Schultz leaves for the La, la, land of the Left Coast where he came from, the sooner I’ll be celebrating.

…may even buy a paper again.

All Knowing

October 19th, 2009
10:49 am

Sailcrap, I’ll repeat myself. I’m ALL KNOWING. Meaning I’m privy to the inner workings of the National College Football Refereeing Association. They’ve already decided it’ll be Boise & Cincy in the NCG. Haven’t you noticed how they’ve rigged all the Georgia games this year ?

Gator Growl

October 19th, 2009
11:07 am

The refs did it! It’s a big conspiracy!! What a bunch or crybabies!!! Just like the LSU game, you Dawg fans are bitchin’ and moaning as usual. Here’s an idea, try covering the kickoff better or try stopping the LSU back from breaking off a long run to the end zone at the end of the game!!!! And if you want to see the Gators lose so bad, win the damn game instead of having to root for someone else to do it!!! Pathetic little losers!!

Ga boy

October 19th, 2009
11:08 am

Surely you have comments about those 2 atrocious calls against Arkansas on the Gators last TD drive Tony. After your whining about the one call against Ga in the LSU game. Also the Gators were flagged 3 times for 16 yards? Imagine that! Not in a million years. Also the failure to call offensive pass Interference on the winning FG drive against Cooper. I would say the refs deserve a large statue outside the Gator stadium

Request for Tony

October 19th, 2009
11:08 am

Tony,

It has been mentioned in many posts above… there is a serious problem w/ the SEC officials. They are human and errors can be made but this is starting to be a trend. Two recent games were greatly influenced by horrible calls. I know you have a relationship with Slive… will this relationship stand in the way of you asking the tough questions? The SEC apologizing after the fact is not benefiting anyone… someone in the media needs to put the pressure on the SEC because they are not addressing this issue internally. They can state that they review every game but the message is not gettng thru to the officials.

XXXVII

October 19th, 2009
11:10 am

an Alabama/Florida BCS championship won’t happen. The BCS will find a way to put USC or a Big 12 team in there. They may even try to put Ohio State in there to be spanked by an SEC team again.

Ga boy

October 19th, 2009
11:12 am

Tony I know you must be smoking again. Not in your wildest imagination would there be a rematch of the SEC championship game for the NC. In spite of what you think about SEC football, there are some other pretty good football teams out there.

Roll Tider

October 19th, 2009
11:13 am

Loving all the respect Bama is getting. For all his past misdeeds, I truly believe Saban was searching for exactly what he has now- a monster football program seeped in tradition. At MSU or LSU he could get talent, but never on the national scale like he will continue to get at Bama. Folks, we have one nice decade ahead of us; guessing even better than the Spurrier years at UF. I’m thinking 8 SEC titles and at least 2-3 MNC titles over the next ten years. Rammerjammer Yellowhammer!

DawgGirl32

October 19th, 2009
11:13 am

Great win on Saturday, Tech. In my humblest opinion, though, someone needs to teach Nesbitt how to throw a shovel pass.

I really doubt we’ll see both Fla-Bama in the National Championship, regardless of whether or not they should. Can you imagine what kind of hell the Big 12, Little 10, and USC would raise if that happened? I really don’t think the general public would want to see it either. Let’s be honest, we’re all about the “which conference is best” BS and I think that many SEC fans would rather have a team in the NC game playing against another conference just for the sake of beating them and saying that the SEC reigns supreme.

No Gator Envy here, but I humbly believe that if the Gators played Bama right now, they would not come away with a win. I think any logical, non-homer Gator fans can agree that those calls against Arkansas were absolutely bogus and greatly helped Florida win that game. Coincidentally, they were the same officiating crew that officiated the UGA/LSU debacle.

I don’t see Clemson beating Miami, but crazier things have happened.

I like my dawgs’ chances against the Gators a lot more now than I did at the beginning of the year. What will be interesting to watch, however, is if the Gators overlook MSU this weekend and MSU pulls a USC/Washington type upset. Like Clemson, MSU really has nothing to lose. Dan Mullen knows the ins and outs of this Florida team and should have his team ready.

G8R GRAD

October 19th, 2009
11:15 am

Granted, some spurrious. maybe even attrocious calls have been made this season by officials on the field, but does anyone REALLY think there’s a conference-wide conspiracy?

bull-gator

October 19th, 2009
11:20 am

1) A rematch would be shameful. Give the # 3 ranked team a shot at the winner (if both are still #1 and #2 when they meet Dec 5).

2) Go Clemson!

3) Dawgs deserve the rest. Look out Gators, you’re in for a long afternoon if the same pedestrian play calling is used as in the Arkansas game.

4) Alabama should be BCS #1.

5) Florida should be 5-1. They really dodged a bullet. Arkansas came to play and the Gators mailed it in. What a bunch of prima donnas…

DawginLex

October 19th, 2009
11:21 am

No conspiracy, just a lot of bad officiating.

Gator Growl

October 19th, 2009
11:22 am

Thank you Ga boy and DawgGirl for just making my case…

joe joe

October 19th, 2009
11:22 am

Tony,
We the SEC fans are tired of it. The officiating has to be addressed/changed. I’m tired of the ole Southern good old boy network. Go out & get the best officials in the country. The conference has enough money to do that.
I can understand an official making a bad call on pass interference because it is the toughest call to make.
However that abortion of a personal foul call against the Arkansas lineman just because he blocked another defender that was blocking him was the worst call I have ever seen an official make in any sport.
Throw in the excessive celebration penalties & the Riley Cooper school of getting open, it has been a bad 3 weeks for the striped crews.