There CAN be an Alabama-Florida rematch for BCS title

 

What we learned over the weekend:

1. There CAN be an Alabama-Florida rematch for the national championship. Last week I said that if Alabama and Florida were undefeated, ranked 1-2 and played a close SEC championship game, there would not be a rematch for the BCS title. That statement was based on the logical position that the human voters, who make up two-thirds of the BCS formula, would not watch one of those teams lose on Dec. 5 and less than 24 hours later vote them in to the BCS championship game.

 

But after seeing the first set of BCS standings on Sunday, I think it is now possible if No. 3 Texas loses at some point. That’s because there is a huge gap in the BCS average between No. 2 Alabama (.9526) and No. 4 Boise State (.8083) and No. 5 Cincinnati (.7870). Boise State’s computer ratings are only going to go down as the season progresses while Cincinnati’s will go up.

 

Secondly, I can’t remember when we’ve had this much of a competitive gap between the top two teams in the standings and the rest of the Top 10. Example: If you’re a voter in one of the polls, do you put a 12-0 Iowa into the big game over a 12-1 SEC team that just lost a close game to the No. 1 or No. 2 team in the nation?

 

 

2. Georgia Tech needs to pull for Clemson—hard. While it is possible that the ACC’s Coastal Division could end in a three-way tie among Miami, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech, all of the tiebreakers are falling towards the Hurricanes because they won the head-to-head matchup with the Yellow Jackets.

If those three teams tie at 7-1, then the spot in the ACC championship game goes to the team with the highest BCS ranking on Nov. 29. Miami is 10, Georgia Tech is 12, and Virginia Tech is 14. So that favors Miami. If the top two teams in the BCS standings are within five spots of each other, the winner of the head to head competition gets the spot. That also favors Miami.

 

The point is that Georgia Tech could run the table, which would include a win over Georgia, and finish ahead of Miami in the BCS standings. But if Miami is within five spots of Georgia Tech, then the Hurricanes go because of the head-to-head results. So Georgia Tech’s best chance of getting to the ACC championship game is win out and hope that Miami stumbles somewhere. The Hurricanes have five conference games left against Clemson, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke.

 

 

 

3. Georgia really needs a week off. I got criticized last week for even suggesting that Georgia’s schedule was a contributing factor to the Bulldogs’ poor play at Tennessee on Oct. 10. The fact is that you will not find a team in the country whose first six games were stronger than Oklahoma State (5-1), South Carolina (5-2, with a loss to No. 2 Alabama), Arkansas (3-3, with losses to No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama), Arizona State (4-2), LSU (5-1 with a loss to No. 1 Florida), and Tennessee (3-3, with a loss to No. 1 Florida). There were no breathers in that bunch and teams get physically and emotional fatigued. You just can’t get up to play every week. You have to be able to win when you’re tired and don’t play well.

 

For those of you keeping score at home, Georgia last had a week off before the Florida game in 1997 and 2007. The Bulldogs won both games.

 

4. This Alabama team is much better than the one that started 12-0 last season. The Crimson Tide of 2008, which rose to No. 1, could really only beat you one way on offense. They would get behind that that huge offensive line and just grind you into submission. And that worked until Alabama played Florida in the SEC championship game. This Alabama team is much more diversified on offense, and showed it against South Carolina as running back Mark Ingram ran for 246 yards, with a lot of it coming out of the Wildcat formation. This team can do more things in the passing game with QB Greg McElroy (even though he has struggled for two straight games) and WR Julio Jones and TE Colin Peek. Defensively, despite the loss of LB Dont’a Hightower, the Crimson Tide can just beat you up. I believe all of this is by design because Alabama has been tweaking its team in anticipation of a rematch with Florida in the SEC championship game on Dec. 5.

 

5. Florida had no business beating Arkansas on Saturday. The Gators turned the ball over four times. Arkansas and QB Ryan Mallett were moving the ball with great consistency. The Arkansas defense had a great scheme to slow down the Florida running game. The game was looking like a carbon copy of Florida’s 31-30 loss to Ole Miss last year in the Swamp. But Florida did not lose because of No. 15, Tim Tebow. If he has any lingering effects from his concussion it did not show as Tebow carried the ball 27 times. When Arkansas missed a field goal that would have given them the Hogs the lead, was there any doubt No. 15 was going to take the Gators down the field and put them in a position to win? Tebow is the difference maker of all difference makers. That’s why the Gators will be undefeated when they play in the SEC championship game on Dec.  5.

 

 

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283 comments Add your comment

Saint Simons

October 19th, 2009
9:07 am

28 – 23 !!!!!!!!!!!!!! hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Paul H

October 19th, 2009
9:07 am

We also learned that Florida is the luckiest team on the planet, courtesy of 2 phantom calls to keep a late drive alive. Guess the refs didn’t want Tebow not to like them.

Atlanta Gator

October 19th, 2009
9:09 am

Frankly, I am less interested in the possibility of a post-SEC Championship rematch of Alabama and Florida than I am concerned about the present state of the Number One ranked Gators. Just as they did last year, the Gators seem to be very inconsistent offensively. Last season, the Gators’ offense found itself during the Arkansas game and went into overdrive thereafter. This year, the Arkansas game provided no tonic. The Gators have continued to win the hard way: close games, mostly solid defense, and adequate offense. As a fan, I’m wondering if this team can really repeat or not.

CrimsonCarl

October 19th, 2009
9:10 am

Who would want to see a rematch between Bama & Florida in the NCG? The voters won’t let it happen.

Paul H

October 19th, 2009
9:12 am

And we learned that the rankings are an even bigger joke than we thought. Boise State #4???? Cincy #5?????

CharlotteGator

October 19th, 2009
9:15 am

Enter your comments here

Joe M

October 19th, 2009
9:15 am

Can we get an in-depth article on the SEC’s pathetically inconsistent penalty calls?

Tebow jumping all around pumping his fists and arms and nothing gets called. An Arkansas player defends himself from a would be cheap shot from a Florida OL-man and gets a 15 yarder that keeps the drive alive.

This league, with all it does to be the best, should be ashamed at the disparity between calls given to some teams and not given to others.

How bout a little Barnhart-Redding/Slive Q&A on this crap?

Charleston Southern

October 19th, 2009
9:15 am

Florida is a cupcake

MagnaCarterGT

October 19th, 2009
9:16 am

Tech needs to pull for Clemson and VT hard – and hope for another UM loss. That would make things considerably easier for us.

Top Dawg

October 19th, 2009
9:16 am

If, and that’s a big if, LSU runs the table, then they’re in the NC game.

RxDawg

October 19th, 2009
9:17 am

No there can’t Tony. Florida doesn’t stand a chance against the dawgs. Georgia is going to punt them outa the stadium baby!

Lou Holthz

October 19th, 2009
9:18 am

No way, no how will the voters allow a rematch. I mean where will be the cries of one of them not winning their conference. Bama will lose to LSU and really throw a wrench in the whole process. Please wipe your monitor after reading this message.

gatorrashad

October 19th, 2009
9:18 am

In all games there is shaky ref calls, we all know that……but you win and live to fight another day…which the Gators have done……Florida will be ready for a big time clash with the Tide….I dont think the rest of the college football world outside of the SEC wants a rematch game between UF-Bama….Tony B ….the match of the ages is UF/Bama winner vs. either Texas or USCw

fair play

October 19th, 2009
9:19 am

Tebow gets away with anything thanks to the SEC officials.

Stinger

October 19th, 2009
9:20 am

Oh look, dawgs beat beat 2-5 Vandy.

How quaint.

m

October 19th, 2009
9:22 am

Tony,

The ACC was 6-4 vs the SEC last year.

The Jackets outplayed & outgained LSWho in the Peach Bowl.

The SEC is the most overrated conference in history.

There should be a 65 team NC playoff like in basketball.

Tech will thrash the pups & destroy UConn for the ACC Championship.

Where have you gone jim Bob Cooter ?

October 19th, 2009
9:22 am

Several things we took from this weekend :

1) Georgia Tech is real. Paul Johnson has the Jackets on the right track . The disciplne and focus are there and were on display Saturday night. The ceiling is very ,very high for this team and this program.

2) Auburn has come crashing back to earth. Call it the “Finebaum Curse”. Just days after detaching his sucker like mouth from Nick Saban’s butt long enoug to praise AU and stop bashing Gene Chizik , the Tigers have lost two straight. The questions about right hire/wrong hire have returned and it won’t be pretty.

3)Florida is vulnerable. The Gators don’t seem to be on a mission like they were last year. Complacency ? Maybe. But the fact is ,it’s hard to motivate players that are already counting their NFL money. A poor effort for the Gators.

4) The best team in the SEC is alabama. talk about focus. The Tide is a brutal juggernaut that will be hard for any team to beat. Saban’s recruiting successes are starting to pay dividends as other teams battle attrition and lack of depth. The Tide is just plugging in another star…

5) All of college football should have a moment of silence to remember Jasper Howard, the Uconn cornerback senselessly killed this wekend at an on campus dance. By all reports ,this kid had never been anything but a model student ,player and citizen. It hurts to lose a young man this way.

Brad

October 19th, 2009
9:22 am

There is no way they will do a rematch with teams from the same conference. Plus, fla is not the best team in the country. The way they are playing, they are 5-10.

Miami still has to play @ S Fla. That is probably their toughest game.

theTruth

October 19th, 2009
9:22 am

Tony, so you are saying that a team does NOT have to win their league to play for the MNC? Wow, that’s not what I heard two years ago against UGA. Nor was that the chant when Oklahoma lost their last game of the year and still went. Or the ESPN pundits that wanted a OSU/Michigan rematch. Before anyone says UGA did not win their division, well, yes they did. They were SEC East co-champs.

So, (not that I’m against two SEC teams in the MNCG), I don’t think they will ‘allow’ it. Too many other conferences will cry about it. It still seems strange to me that UGA got shut out because of a rule that didn’t exist. One of the reasons (tradition/rose bowl being the others) that didn’t want the USC/UGA matchup in the Rose Bowl in 07 was they feared the winner of that game would win the AP MNC.

Arthur Digby Sellers

October 19th, 2009
9:22 am

Mike Slive will not let the Gators lose this year. Anyone who saw their last td against ark would have to agree with me. I’ve never seen officials actually give a team a td before. But it happened Saturday. Even Gary Danielson ( the biggest Meyer and Tebow homer of them all) said the officiating was one sided. We have no chance if this continues – and it will. I’m usually on the side of the officials. They can’t get them all right. But I’m beginning to think there is more going on here. Slive wants two undefeateds in the championship game and there is no question he has let the refs know his feelings on the matter.

A winning record not really needed

October 19th, 2009
9:23 am

3-3 Sooners… #25 ?

CharlotteGator

October 19th, 2009
9:23 am

Tony,

Gotta respectfully disagree. I’d argue Arkansas started the season off tougher than the Dawgs. Also, I don’t think Mallet and Arky were moving it consistently. They got hot in the 4th but were shut down for most of the game. I think the bad penalties and the missed kicks by the Arky kicker were the reason UF had no business winning. I’ll take it though. To win a Nat’l Title, you have to have one like this every year. 2006 game against South Carolina, last year against Bama.

I’d have no interest in an SEC champ game matchup. If UF gets there to play Bama, and then loses, I’d rather see someone else get a shot. You can’t have a series on neutral sites split 1-1 and give the title to the team that won the second game. Not cool.

Big City

October 19th, 2009
9:25 am

3 way tie for the Coastal and no mention of the ACC’s currently top seeded and only undefeated in-conferemce team? A little journalistic integrity please Tony…

Sincerely,
Charlottesville

Miles

October 19th, 2009
9:25 am

Mr. Barnhart, you’ve repeatedly said turnover margin is the most important statistic in football. Thus, what better example is there of this than the Florida/Arkansas game? Statistically, Florida had the advantage in every category (first downs, passing, rushing, lack of penalties, time of possession, receiving, punt returns, and kicking) except kick returns. Florida gave the ball away four times. This was the difference in the game. Although Arkansas played well, it was the lack of disciplined play by the Gators that made this game so close. Tim Tebow came through in the end on the final drive of the game as was the difference in the end.

45ACP

October 19th, 2009
9:25 am

RxDawg – I concur. The Dawgs have Florida right where they want them.

Starting the season

October 19th, 2009
9:25 am

I’d argue Florida started the season off tougher than anybody with Charleston Southern & Troy State.

Nick

October 19th, 2009
9:26 am

This tech fan is pulling for ga in 2 weeks. Beat those gators!

Nachos

October 19th, 2009
9:26 am

No mention of ALLBARN losing to Kentucky for the first time since 1966?

Go Dawgs

October 19th, 2009
9:27 am

did anyone see the refs hand that win to the Gaytors on saturday? 2 dumb calls towards Arkansas that gave Florida great field position on their winning drive. There is no doubt the refs are going to do everything in their power to make sure Florida and Alabama play for the SEC championship because it makes the conference look great with 2 SEC teams atop the polls. So if Georgia is gunna pull off the upset they are gunna have to score to the point where it pretty much takes the refs out of the game.

GO DAWGS

RxDawg

October 19th, 2009
9:27 am

Quote of the day:
“For those of you keeping score at home, Georgia last had a week off before the Florida game in 1997 and 2007. The Bulldogs won both games.”

Lord of the Lizards

October 19th, 2009
9:27 am

Tony, The air is thick with Gator Envy. I read comments from fans like Paul H and it makes me laugh. Of course, a little over a week ago, this is the same type of fan, pundit, talking head etc, that presented themselves as “concussion experts” and were freely criticizing Meyer for even thinking about playing Tebow (funny, not a peep out of them about Michigans QB playing the SAME week he had one). Now they are all referees in a game that didn’t even involve their team, yet they seem so incensed and angry. BAD BAD case of Gator Envy!!

Mikey

October 19th, 2009
9:29 am

Hey Arky, thanks for trying…

sincerely,
SEC officials

NEXT#!13

October 19th, 2009
9:29 am

SHOULD BAMA GET PAST 10ERC THIS WEEK THEY’LL HAVE A MUCH NEEDED REST BEFORE THE LSWHO?? GAME!!! THINK ABOUT IT…2 WEEK’S FOR THE BAMA STAFF TO PREP!!! IT’S 50/50 BUT I DON’T SEE US LOSING THAT GAME UNLESS THE WHEEL’S FALL OFF OF THE DEFENSIVE SIDE OF THE BALL!!!

RxDawg

October 19th, 2009
9:30 am

I agree with you Jim Bob Cooter about 5). That was a sad story indeed.

another dawg in ptc

October 19th, 2009
9:30 am

Tony,
Another interesting tidbit about UGA’s schedule, is that they have lost the game after the LSU game in the last two years. they seem to match up well with LSU and play them really hard and physical. But have nothing left for the next week. But that is live in the SEC.

MtnBama

October 19th, 2009
9:31 am

If Bama does not solve it’s passing game issues of the past two games they will likely lose to LSU and will not beat Fl. if they play them six straight. If they do get the passing game going again no one will be able to stop them. RTR.

PMC

October 19th, 2009
9:32 am

Could Nesbitt be mentioned as a heisman canidate? No one has really stood out thus far. He’s been getting better and better.

globeflyer

October 19th, 2009
9:34 am

If I were a Hog fan, I would be screaming at the SEC front office over the officiating in the FL/ARK game. Pathetic.
The winner of the SECCG will NOT play another team from the SEC for the NC; the “powers that be” won’t allow it. First, because of a perceived lack of ratings and second, jealousy of, or bias against (your choice) the SEC.
This has got to be the weirdest season I can remember for the “Top Ten”…

another dawg in ptc

October 19th, 2009
9:35 am

Sorry about the typo. That is life in the SEC.

CrazyVol

October 19th, 2009
9:35 am

No way, no how will Ala/Fla play twice. Pipe dream. As far as Florda is concern, they are ripe for an upset. I wouldnt quite just blow off. I wonder which Georgia team will showup for that match?

Got 12?

October 19th, 2009
9:36 am

Does the conference want two undefeated teams playing in Atlanta in December? Of course they do. Were there a couple of bad calls against the Hogs? Of course there were. That’s life.

BankerDawg

October 19th, 2009
9:37 am

I still don’t buy it, Tony.

Michigan and tOSU showed us several years ago that voters are leary to have a rematch for the BCSCG. As good as we think UF and Bama are, a lot would have to happen for a rematch to even be a possibility.

USC already has their WTF loss (Washington) and Barkley looks like a veteran out there. Trust me when I tell you that I have extreme disdain for the Trojans, but with that defense, and what looks to be an emerging offense, I think they can beat anyone on a neutral field.

Iowa just has to get past a mediocre tOSU team to finish undefeated.

Texas is still undefeated, and they have Mizzou and Okie St, plus their championship game…games in which they will be favored. While they didn’t look particularly impressive, the same could be said for a lot of top teams this past weekend…..

And I’m sorry, but every game I watch Florida play, they look more and more beatable. I think for the moment it’s Bama and everyone else, because of their defense and running game.

Dare I even say, that with a week off I think my Dawgs have as good a shot as any against the Gators on Halloween.

I ramble to make the point that there is still a long way to go, and I just don’t believe there is ANY way we see a rematch of the SECCG in the BCSCG.

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO DAWGS! BEAT THE GATORS!!!!!

Gary

October 19th, 2009
9:38 am

Charlotte Gator, so that means the 1996 Florida National Championship was not cool? Didn’t they lose to the team they eventually beat in a rematch for the title?

collegeballfan

October 19th, 2009
9:38 am

Didn’t we have a case a few years ago of Ohio St & Michigan playing, Ohio St winning a close game & a big clamor for a rematch in the BCS championship game? And didn’t Fla get the nod & beat Ohio St?

Two conference champions will play. I would love to see Boise against whoever gets the other bid.

-Johnson can coach-

October 19th, 2009
9:40 am

Frank Beamer got out-coached in the second half.Georgia Tech made the right adjustments to beat big bad # 4.

Bryan B

October 19th, 2009
9:43 am

Gary that was fsu and uf. not from the same conference. and fsu was lucky to have beat fla the first time. every nole fan knew danny w and the gators would crush them in the rematch.

ReptilesRule

October 19th, 2009
9:44 am

I agree with the Gator Envy statement. I like to call it the Gator Haters, who will make any kind of statement to discredit the amazing accomplishments in Gainesville. My favorites, in no particular order are: “Tebows good but won’t make it in the pros”, “Urban Meyers going to Notre Dame”, “Wait till Tebow leaves”, Mythical National Championship” (that is, until THEIR team is in contention), “Meyer is a jerk, our Coach is Mr Nice Guy”, even have heard these gems…”ESPN has it rigged”, “the refs have it rigged” (the latest theory). Yes, it can be lonely at the top, but it’s gotta be brutal at the bottom. Go Gators!!

Stinger

October 19th, 2009
9:44 am

Mr. College Footbal said:

“The fact is that you will not find a team in the country whose first six games were stronger than Oklahoma State (5-1), South Carolina (5-2, with a loss to No. 2 Alabama), Arkansas (3-3, with losses to No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama), Arizona State (4-2), LSU (5-1 with a loss to No. 1 Florida), and Tennessee (3-3, with a loss to No. 1 Florida).”

See sports fans, THIS is what happens when you drink too much Kool Aid.
You get BS like this from people like TB.

There is simply NO CREDIBILITY left with TB.

NO OTHER teams or CONFERENCES even exist in Tony’s world.

How about: USC? Oregon? Miami? GT?
Or…ANYONE…ranked AHEAD of GA.

The FACT is…so many of these SEC team schedules are FRONT-LOADED with complete cupcakes. FL vs. Charleston Southern & Troy. Gimme a break.

There should no longer be ANY doubt that Mr. Brain-fart has NO journalistic integrity of ANY measure.

TB is a complete and OBVIOUS FRAUD.

Dawg Fud

October 19th, 2009
9:45 am

A 12-0 Iowa team should definitely get a hard look for the national title game. not syaing they should be in it for certain, but definitely a hard look.

how freaking good is that bama-fla SECCG going to be??? cannot wait.

RAMBLE ON!!!

October 19th, 2009
9:46 am

Well said, stinger.

That off week sure did help the fleabags last year against GT. They scored 42 points on us.

Could you imagine, if the mutts played 3 games in 13 days like GT did and the only lose was to Miami in their house?

Tony would be making reference to that game, every Monday.

If the dawgs scheduled…blah, blah, blah, blah blah.

GT 11-1
UGA 6-6

….I can’t find my blue bird.