The Fearless Friday Forecast

 

Ouch.

 

Your Fearless Forecaster went 5-5 last week because he didn’t know that:

**–An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty (they’ve asked us not to call it excessive celebration) could be called for players looking into the stands or pointing to the sky. Nevertheless, LSU made the plays at the end of the game and deserved to beat Georgia.

 

**–The Tennessee offense could get any worse than it was. Auburn, to its credit, took advantage of that.

 

**–Miami would bounce back from an embarrassing loss at Virginia Tech and show a lot of heart to beat banged-up Oklahoma. Randy Shannon’s team is looking at 11-1.

 

**–Florida State’s football program could become more dysfunctional than it already was and lose on the road to Boston College.

 

**–Clemson could lose to a 1-3 Maryland team whose only win was against James Madison (38-35) in overtime.

 

That leaves us at 35-15 after five weeks. We’ll hope to do better this time out.

 

1. Georgia Tech at Florida State: If I’m Paul Johnson, I am concerned about what I will find when I get to Tallahassee. The Seminoles are going to rally and play great or they are going to go completely in the tank. I think Florida State will play hard but the truth is Georgia Tech is a better team. Georgia Tech 28, Florida State 24.

 

2. Georgia at Tennessee: After watching Georgia struggle to run the ball against LSU, it’s pretty clear what Monte Kiffin, the Tennessee DC, will do. He’ll stuff the run and bet that Georgia QB Joe Cox and WR A.J. Green can’t beat him. Georgia will speed up the tempo on offense and wear down the Tennessee defense in the second half. The Drama Dawgs win another close one. Georgia 21, Tennessee 17.

 

3. Florida at LSU: I’m not a doctor and I don’t play one on TV. But I’m here to tell you that Florida wins if  Tim Tebow plays. Florida also wins if Tim Tebow doesn’t play. It’s called defense and Florida has a great one. It will be a classic. Florida 17, LSU 14.

 

4. Auburn at Arkansas: Auburn showed me a lot by winning at Tennessee. Now the Tigers will be in a track meet in Fayetteville. Somebody in this game is going to have to make a defensive stop. Auburn has a better chance of doing it. Auburn 42, Arkansas 35.

 

5. Alabama at Ole Miss: Everybody is telling me what a great game this is going to be. I don’t see it. Alabama can beat you so many ways. They can grind it out. They can hit the big play. Jevan Snead, the Ole Miss quarterback, really struggled against a very good defense from South Carolina. Alabama’s defense is better. Alabama 28, Ole Miss 10.

 

6. Kentucky at South Carolina: The Wildcats will be without star cornerback Trevard Lindley which means they will have a greener than grass secondary. Do you think Coach Spurrier will want Stephen Garcia to take a few shots down the field? Gamecocks go to Alabama next week at 5-1. South Carolina 31, Kentucky 13.

 

7. Houston at Mississippi State: All I know is that Georgia Tech’s Josh Nesbitt, not know as a passer, threw for a career-high 266 yards against Mississippi State.  So what does that mean for Houston’s Case Keenum, who is completing 68 percent of his passes for 424 yards per game?  Houston 42, Mississippi State 31.

 

8. Boston College at Virginia Tech: The Hokies need to be careful not to look ahead too much to next week’s big trip to Georgia Tech. Boston College is struggling on offense but the Eagles are 4-1. If Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor keeps playing well, the Hokies are going to be hard to beat. Virginia Tech 24, Boston College 14.

 

9. Michigan at Iowa: Iowa (5-0) might be the best team in the Big Ten but I will wait until the Hawkeyes play at Ohio State on Nov. 14 to make that judgment. Michigan lost a heartbreaker (26-20) in overtime at Michigan State last week and has the kind of spread offense that gives Iowa trouble. I still like the Hawkeyes. Iowa 21, Michigan 17.

 

10. Oregon at UCLA: The Ducks (4-1) have rebounded nicely after losing the opener to Boise State and have beaten California (42-3) and Washington State (52-6) in their last two outings. But Oregon may be without quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (knee). Nate Costa gets his first career start. Ducks win anyway. Oregon 31, UCLA 24.

 

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284 comments Add your comment

mightyKC

October 9th, 2009
10:45 am

tigerbait: “mightyKC, we play UF every other year….AT NIGHT!”

um, in 2007 yes, and in 2009, yes. 2005, day game. 2003: day game (when frosh QB leak beat the eventual national champs). 2001: we blew the doors off in the daytime.

what are you, 12 yrs old?

also, read this, genius:

Here’s a compilation of teams that LSU has beaten on their much-hyped home winning streak in night games (currently at 21 games):

Virginia Tech (2007, 11-3) – finished ranked AP#9
Auburn (2005, 9-3) – finished ranked AP#14
FLORIDA (2007, 9-4) – finished ranked AP#13
Auburn (2007, 9-4) – finished ranked AP#15
Kentucky (2006, 8-5)
Troy (2008, 8-5)
UL-Lafayette (2006, 6-6)
Arizona (2006, 6-6)
UL-Lafayette (2009, 2-2*)
Alabama (2006, 6-7)
Middle Tennessee State (2007, 5-7)
Louisiana Tech (2007, 5-7)
Tulane (2006, 4-8)
Fresno State (2006, 4-8)
Ole Miss (2006, 4-8)
Mississippi State (2008, 4-8)
Vanderbilt (2009, 2-3*)
North Texas (2005, 2-9)
Tulane (2008, 2-10)
North Texas (2008, 1-11)
Appalachian State (2005, FCS)

So that’s…
1 win vs. a team that finished in the AP Top 10, and
4 wins vs. teams that finished in the AP Top 25
7 wins vs. teams with a winning record (including App. State)

Not sure about the Auburn 2005 game, but I would venture a guess that LSU was the favorite in all of these games.

Paul H

October 9th, 2009
10:48 am

LOL is right.

You Tony bashers need to get a clue:

1) Any reasonable football fan would predict a UGA win tomorrow.
2) That call WAS one of the worst calls in history but Tony did not use that as excuse as to why we lost. Again, he GAVE LSU credit for the victory and for making the necessary plays.

READ the article next time people instead of trying to be the first one to post something that doesn’t make any sense.

Trade School Junkie

October 9th, 2009
10:50 am

TB:

Man, let it go, and quit with the diatribe. When you keep briniging it up, its just bush-league whinig.

1. GT…close.
2. Tenn wins.
3. FL..easily. LSU has looked VERY over-rated for 5 straight weeks.
4. AU…with a better D than Ark. Lotta pts.
5. Bama…easily. Honeymoon ends for Nutt.
6. USC…close
7. MissSt…lotta pts scored in this game.
8. BC…UPSET ALERT. VT was bad vs. Duke. BC playing on high emotions.
9. Michigan: Hard to bet against Tate Forcier
10. Ducks

mightyKC

October 9th, 2009
10:51 am

note that i show the streak at 21 games…LSU likes to conveniently talk about their streak of 32 night games because they use the caveat of “oh wait, only saturday night!”. LSU lost at night to Tenn in 2005, but it was on a Monday.

Here is the breakdown of the 32 games:

Breaking THE STREAK down into games against non-BCS, BCS unranked, and ranked teams -

non-BCS opponents: 16
BCS unranked opponents: 11
Ranked opponents: 5 (#17, #18, #9, #9, #16)

And one last set of stats for all you corndogs:

Since 1980 the teams have met in Tiger Stadium 14 times.

Florida has won 10 of those games.
Florida has held LSU to 13 points or less 9 times.
Florida has shut them out 2 times.
Florida has held them to single digits 4 times (LSU has not held Florida to single digits in any of the meetings.)
Florida has scored 30+ points 4 times. LSU has never scored more than 28.
Florida has won by margins of 14 or more points 8 times (55, 29, 21, 20, 18, 16, 14, 14, 12, 3) (LSU has never won by more than 7. (7, 4, 4, 3)

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
10:52 am

If I am 12 you must be 11 if you actually went and did research to prove me wrong! LMFAO! That is great! I’m glad you did that! You just made my day mightyKC!!! That list actually looks pretty favorable to a Tiger fan. I see a lot of good teams on that list….

Bryan

October 9th, 2009
10:52 am

Wrong Paul. It was NOT one of the worst calls. Not even close. It didn’t take away possession. It didn’t take away or give points. There will be 50 calls this year alone worse than that one. Calls like this happen all the time. Doesn’t make it right, but no way does a 15 yard kickoff penalty come off as anything but a bad call.

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
10:54 am

mightyKC, come to Baton Rouge and let us show you how to have a good time and lighten up a little bit. Hell, by the time you leave you may wanna be chanting “TIGER BAIT!”

Otto

October 9th, 2009
10:55 am

ESPN just posted:

This is only the fourth time in the last nine seasons that LSU has been an underdog at Tiger Stadium. The Tigers are winless in the three previous occasions, losing 44-15 to Florida in 2001, 31-0 to Alabama in 2002 and 27-21 to Alabama last season.

LSU’s defense has not recorded a sack in any of its last three games, and going back to the final drive by Vanderbilt, opposing quarterbacks have thrown 113 consecutive passes without being sacked by the Tigers.

I think UF wins but it stays closer than many UF fans would like.

No Class LIzards

October 9th, 2009
11:00 am

Urban will put the chances for a win above Tebow’s health. Guaranteed. I just hope the poor kid survives.

Jake

October 9th, 2009
11:01 am

Here are the 6 worst calls in football history

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcTG1wGHYW4

Rocky King

October 9th, 2009
11:03 am

Funny story on Colin Cowherd show about the Upshaw kid:
The girls dad actually yelled “Roll Tide!” from the courthouse steps. He just wants season tix and he sold out his own daughter for it.

Tommy Lee

October 9th, 2009
11:04 am

Nikki, I’ll be watching the game from right behind you with my ash tray on your back. Try not to move too much or I will give your sorry a$$ a donkey punch like I did to your lover Nachos last night.

Fleischman in Chattanooga

October 9th, 2009
11:04 am

Hmmmm… lets see Monte Kiffin vs. Mike Bobo. Who has the advantage there???? UT 6 UGA 3 in a snooooooooooooooooze fest.

Vol alum of reason

October 9th, 2009
11:05 am

Agree with the 3rd and Chavis. There was no one worse at defending third and long. Just wait for him to unfold his “Mustang” package at the end of games. The rain will play a huge factor at the UT game Saturday. I can’t wait to see Berry v Green. Should be a great matchup. Dogs by 10. Go Vols!

Nachos

October 9th, 2009
11:06 am

Dont flatter yourself Tommy Lee, I dont hang with losers.

How are your allbarn tigers gonna do tomorrow? Gus for President right ?

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
11:11 am

Where are you mightyKC? Looking up more stats I don’t give a crap about? This is a smack board…Not a stat board!!! LOL!

Tommy Lee

October 9th, 2009
11:11 am

Now Nachos, it is not nice to call your boyfriend Nikki a loser.

Larry

October 9th, 2009
11:13 am

Only an idiot sportswriter like you would say “LSU deserved to win the game”. How about an article about lame SEC Officials and an even more lame SEC commissioner that feels great about holding coaches and players accountable in the media but will not do the same for the slim we have calling themselves SEC Officials. What a joke!

Tony $ucks

October 9th, 2009
11:14 am

Get over it Tony. Your team is really not that good. UT wins b/c UGA still upset over bad call, and they are still not that good.

mightyKC

October 9th, 2009
11:15 am

“If I am 12 you must be 11 if you actually went and did research to prove me wrong! LMFAO! That is great! I’m glad you did that! You just made my day mightyKC!!! That list actually looks pretty favorable to a Tiger fan. I see a lot of good teams on that list….”

i didn’t have to look up the stat re: your comment saying we play each other EVERY OTHER YEAR AT NIGHT….i’m just old enough to remember since 1997, it has happened *once*, in 2007.

and as far as the other stats, someone else did the dirty work, i just copied/pasted.

so anyway, talk trash if you want to talk trash, but don’t try to talk in facts and logic, as that is where your corndogs lose it.

you’re definitely #1 in getting drunk/stupid and giving other teams players/coaches death threats…so you got that going for ya!

LOL

October 9th, 2009
11:16 am

Wow Unbiased, try not to be such a whiner!

Glenn

October 9th, 2009
11:16 am

Interesting picks by Tony and a few fans so I thought I would throw a few guesses out of my own:

GA Tech 34 FSU 28
UGA 21 Tenn 14
Florida 42 LSU 14
Arkansas 35 Auburn 31
Alabama 28 Ole Miss 3
South Carolina 24 Kentucky 14
Mississippi State 42 Houston 35
Virginia Tech 24 Boston College 7
Michigan 28 Iowa 24
Oregon 35 UCLA 17

Glen you are a dork

October 9th, 2009
11:18 am

Throw a few picks of my own. What a nerd.

Nikki Sixx

October 9th, 2009
11:19 am

Tommy Lee probably wears a “Chiz for President” tshirt.

Sounds like a barner or a disgruntled jawja fan.

Wally Butts

October 9th, 2009
11:19 am

Tony…I’m no doctor either but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night…LSU puts Tebow out of the game with a concussion on a 4th and 1 in the third quarter…Fla holds on to win 14-10…Tebow out until FSU…Fla wins the game and loses the War as they lose two games…

im4bama

October 9th, 2009
11:19 am

All I know is that I’m going to be enjoying tomorrow to the fullest extent. I just wish I had more TV’s for all the the Noon SEC games. It’s a good thing my lady understands that Fall Saturday’s means I’m in the “man cave” and that I’ll see her Sunday.

Roll Tide Roll!

RxDawg

October 9th, 2009
11:19 am

Here we go again!

UGA at UT: It was something like 1937 since these two teams have met without either one in the top 25. Oh how the mighty have fallen. If things for both teams mostly continue as they are UGA should pull out another heart attacking win. In my opinion this comes down to what kind of game Crompton has. If he get’s on a roll, it will be a long day for the dogs. However, the reverse is true for UGA’s running game. Our RB’s stink, but we finally found a spark in a freshman RB Ealy. “My god a freshman!” If our running game gets going it will be a long day for UT.

Tech at FSU: Ugh…I don’t wont to try to call this game. Both of these teams have done the exact opposite of what I pick all year long. A lot of emotion going on at FSU right now. I think that they are just in too much turmoil at the moment to pull it together for Tech.

UF at LSU: LSU had a lot of trouble scoring on UGA’s defense. UF’s D >>> UGA’s D. You do the math. The Tebow situation is irrelevant.

Bama at Ole Miss: Everyone in the world, and Ole Miss fans thought Ole Miss was going to win it all this year. The rest of us SECers knew better. Bama is just too strong all around and deserves to be #1 right now (Wipe that smirk off your face Ashely). Bama keeps rolling.

Auburn at Arkansas: Auburn found their offense! Arkansas doesn’t have a defense! Auburn in a 40ish – 20ish game.

Tommy Lee

October 9th, 2009
11:25 am

Nikki, you know I do not wear a shirt! I do have a ‘Nachos is my #1 b!tch’ tattoo though.

Boo

October 9th, 2009
11:27 am

You predict that GT and UGA win every week.

Brew

October 9th, 2009
11:29 am

UT is ahead of UGa in most of the offensive and defensive categories so far this season, so we can cut the charade about who has the poorer offense. Uga has passed better, leading in pass yards and pass efficiency, but UT leads in everything else…and in pretty much all defensive categories. Doesn’t mean the pups don’t have a chance. Obviously, they do have a little one, but they will need to play much, much better than last week to win.

Glenn

October 9th, 2009
11:31 am

The least you could do is spell my name correctly, moron.

FLA DAWG

October 9th, 2009
11:31 am

Since The Dawg Offense and Defense (and Special Teams) are unable to showup at the same time for any Game I cannot pick a winner – and frankly my Dawg Friends, I don’t give a damn.

reservoirDAWG

October 9th, 2009
11:32 am

Tony, you’re a good college football guy, but don’t give us your 35-15 record when you don’t pick against the spread.

shawdawg

October 9th, 2009
11:32 am

I have a bad feeling that GA, and the Falcons lose, but it is soften with a Florida, and GT lose as well. Wild weekend in store!

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
11:34 am

mightyKC, you are an F__N moron! I don’t care what your stats are. I don’t care what you think of LSU. I don’t care about your fettish with Thibaut (Tebow in Cajun.) All I care about is seeing a damn good football game between two premier schools Saturday night! Win or lose, I will not be disappointed as I know it will be a great game! Instant classic!

G8R GRAD

October 9th, 2009
11:35 am

No Class Lizards:

Brantley will start and judging from LSU’s defensive rankings (52nd in the nation in pass defense and are a miserable 102nd nationally in sacks (only five on the year)), he will have a banner evening.

GO GATORS!

GETITRIGHT

October 9th, 2009
11:39 am

Congrats Tony ! . This whole controversy has totally exposed the Tech fan base for anti intellectual reactionaries they really are. This is
a great example oh why their fan base is so dissed and pissed on.
Their panties are in twist over your opinion of how the call ranks
in terms of college football history. How dare you have an opinion
Tony you are not eligible for that because of where you went to
school. Of course it’s silly but with clowns what else would you expect? It’s amazing isn’t it that they are just too stupid to
look past their hatred to see the bigger picture? They never ask
why would Tony believe this. They just jump to the conclusion that
it is because you went to Georgia. I understand your position and to
reaonable folks it makes sense. First of all there is a difference
between a missed called due to human error and calling something
arbirtarily that no amount of eyes and film will back up. Any call
like this past week and the Nebraska five down situation are calls
that must be viewed as “just can’t be allowed to happen”.
It strikes at the integrity of college football as a sport and none of us want that. With the money that is at stake in college sports from
gambling to money made by tv networks we cannot afford to not view it
as the potential for great damage to the sport we all love.
Thanks Tony for bring the attention and scrutiny needed on this matter.
All college football fans stand to lose if we let this go without an
appropiate outcry.

murfdawg

October 9th, 2009
11:45 am

While I do not feel a lot of love for LSU right now, I still hate the Gators more. I think the Tigers will find some way to win the game. However, there is one caveat. If Penn Wagers is officiating, all bets on LSU are off.

mightyKC

October 9th, 2009
11:45 am

“Win or lose, I will not be disappointed as I know it will be a great game!”

well i can rest easy knowing that neither of us will be dissapointed when UF shuts up 90K carnies and blows the roof off you beloved corndogs(that’s “LSU Tigers” in Cajun).

gonna be a lot of unhappy hungover inbreds come sunday. gotta go, i’m about to call jefferson & the fathat to wish them good luck

Jake

October 9th, 2009
11:46 am

Yes getitright, i saw the official stick his leg out and trip the ga player so the lsu rb could get free and score. you whining putz. teams get bad calls all the time. lsu had the same call against them. even steven. they just did a better job at returning the kickoff and are better than you. 1 first down in the first half. that says it all.

GT Dan

October 9th, 2009
11:48 am

shawdawg, wallow in your own missery. GT wins this on by a TD. No joy for you!

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
11:50 am

mightyKC, you are actually funnier than I first thought! Touche! Good Luck to your Gators. Later….

No Class LIzards

October 9th, 2009
11:56 am

G8R GRAD, you really must be one of those rare UF students who complete their course of study – a parentheses within a parentheses. Nice. I hope for Tebow’s sake Brantley gets off to a quick lead. Or Urban will put Tebow in, even if it kills the poor kid. I remember when he forced those kids at Bowling Green and Utah to play against doctor’s orders. May they rest in peace.

G8R GRAD

October 9th, 2009
12:01 pm

NCL:

Have a really nice day.
And good luck to whomever you root for.

Oh, and . . .

GO GATORS!

[...] Council is wooing Georgia and Georgia Tech to play in the 2011 Chick-fil-A Kickoff game.Here are the weekend predictions from The AJC’s Tony Barnhart.Tommy Hicks of The Mobile Press-Register says it finally time to [...]

Joe Bob Thibodaux

October 9th, 2009
12:08 pm

Georgia by 10. 3 and out is last week. Dawgs suck it up, regroup behind Cox, and defense picks 2. Offense line opens a hole.

Tiger Bait and Otto: Keep up the good work. Very interesting with stats and everything. Tigers by 1.

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
12:14 pm

Thanks Joe Bob. Even though I hate his stats you have to give mightyKC a shout out too! LOL!! GEUAX TIGERS!

Joe Bob Thibodaux

October 9th, 2009
12:18 pm

TigerBait, I can’t wait until Jefferson learns to run the option and dump instead of getting sacked. Once thie team gets tuned up, it could be a real thing of beauth. There are some studs still learning how to get out of the gates.

I must congratulate the AJC blogworks. It is user friendly and a tribute to a newspaper from someone who appreciates newspapers.

Alabama jack

October 9th, 2009
12:20 pm

For dawgs who can’t wait until tomorrow:

Wish that I was on ole rocky top,
Down in the tennessee hills.
Aint no smoggy smoke on rocky top,
Aint no telephone bills.

Once there was a girl on rocky top,
Half bear the other half cat.
Wild as a mink, sweet as soda pop,
I still dream about that.

Rocky top, youll always be
Home sweet home to me.
Good ole rocky top,
Rocky top tennessee, rocky top tennessee.

Once two strangers climbed on rocky top,
Lookin for a moonshine still.
Strangers aint come back from rocky top,
Guess they never will.

Corn wont grow at all on rocky top,
Dirts too rocky by far.
Thats why all the folks on rocky top
Get their corn from a jar.

Rocky top, youll always be
Home sweet home to me.
Good ole rocky top,
Rocky top tennessee, rocky top tennessee.

Now Ive had years of cramped up city life,
Trapped like a duck in a pen.
Now all I know is its a pity life
Cant be simple again.

Rocky top, youll always be
Home sweet home to me.
Good ole rocky top,
Rocky top tennessee, rocky top tennessee.

Rocky top tennessee, rocky top tennessee.
Yeah rocky top tennesee eee eee eee.

AtlantaCane

October 9th, 2009
12:20 pm

Tony:

Regarding “banged-up Oklahoma”: both staring defensive ends and both starting safeties were out injured for the Canes along with the starting FB ( a true freshman RB replaced him) and the best hit of the night that came on the opening kickoff of the second half was courtesy of a UM walk-on. I know the Sooners were missing QB Bradford and TE Gresham but the injuries weren’t as one-sided in favor of OU as most people think. I enjoy your columns, great stuff!

Go Canes!