The Fearless Friday Forecast

 

Ouch.

 

Your Fearless Forecaster went 5-5 last week because he didn’t know that:

**–An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty (they’ve asked us not to call it excessive celebration) could be called for players looking into the stands or pointing to the sky. Nevertheless, LSU made the plays at the end of the game and deserved to beat Georgia.

 

**–The Tennessee offense could get any worse than it was. Auburn, to its credit, took advantage of that.

 

**–Miami would bounce back from an embarrassing loss at Virginia Tech and show a lot of heart to beat banged-up Oklahoma. Randy Shannon’s team is looking at 11-1.

 

**–Florida State’s football program could become more dysfunctional than it already was and lose on the road to Boston College.

 

**–Clemson could lose to a 1-3 Maryland team whose only win was against James Madison (38-35) in overtime.

 

That leaves us at 35-15 after five weeks. We’ll hope to do better this time out.

 

1. Georgia Tech at Florida State: If I’m Paul Johnson, I am concerned about what I will find when I get to Tallahassee. The Seminoles are going to rally and play great or they are going to go completely in the tank. I think Florida State will play hard but the truth is Georgia Tech is a better team. Georgia Tech 28, Florida State 24.

 

2. Georgia at Tennessee: After watching Georgia struggle to run the ball against LSU, it’s pretty clear what Monte Kiffin, the Tennessee DC, will do. He’ll stuff the run and bet that Georgia QB Joe Cox and WR A.J. Green can’t beat him. Georgia will speed up the tempo on offense and wear down the Tennessee defense in the second half. The Drama Dawgs win another close one. Georgia 21, Tennessee 17.

 

3. Florida at LSU: I’m not a doctor and I don’t play one on TV. But I’m here to tell you that Florida wins if  Tim Tebow plays. Florida also wins if Tim Tebow doesn’t play. It’s called defense and Florida has a great one. It will be a classic. Florida 17, LSU 14.

 

4. Auburn at Arkansas: Auburn showed me a lot by winning at Tennessee. Now the Tigers will be in a track meet in Fayetteville. Somebody in this game is going to have to make a defensive stop. Auburn has a better chance of doing it. Auburn 42, Arkansas 35.

 

5. Alabama at Ole Miss: Everybody is telling me what a great game this is going to be. I don’t see it. Alabama can beat you so many ways. They can grind it out. They can hit the big play. Jevan Snead, the Ole Miss quarterback, really struggled against a very good defense from South Carolina. Alabama’s defense is better. Alabama 28, Ole Miss 10.

 

6. Kentucky at South Carolina: The Wildcats will be without star cornerback Trevard Lindley which means they will have a greener than grass secondary. Do you think Coach Spurrier will want Stephen Garcia to take a few shots down the field? Gamecocks go to Alabama next week at 5-1. South Carolina 31, Kentucky 13.

 

7. Houston at Mississippi State: All I know is that Georgia Tech’s Josh Nesbitt, not know as a passer, threw for a career-high 266 yards against Mississippi State.  So what does that mean for Houston’s Case Keenum, who is completing 68 percent of his passes for 424 yards per game?  Houston 42, Mississippi State 31.

 

8. Boston College at Virginia Tech: The Hokies need to be careful not to look ahead too much to next week’s big trip to Georgia Tech. Boston College is struggling on offense but the Eagles are 4-1. If Virginia Tech QB Tyrod Taylor keeps playing well, the Hokies are going to be hard to beat. Virginia Tech 24, Boston College 14.

 

9. Michigan at Iowa: Iowa (5-0) might be the best team in the Big Ten but I will wait until the Hawkeyes play at Ohio State on Nov. 14 to make that judgment. Michigan lost a heartbreaker (26-20) in overtime at Michigan State last week and has the kind of spread offense that gives Iowa trouble. I still like the Hawkeyes. Iowa 21, Michigan 17.

 

10. Oregon at UCLA: The Ducks (4-1) have rebounded nicely after losing the opener to Boise State and have beaten California (42-3) and Washington State (52-6) in their last two outings. But Oregon may be without quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (knee). Nate Costa gets his first career start. Ducks win anyway. Oregon 31, UCLA 24.

 

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284 comments Add your comment

Otto

October 9th, 2009
9:46 am

Tony, If Auburn’s much faster pace offense can not tire UT’s defense, how do you expect UGA to do it?

It is the UGA defense that gets tired from UGA’s 3 min or less possesions on offense combined with UT’s ground game. UGA may lead but is kept for the most part out of the endzone. UT takes over late.

UT kept a much more dynamic Auburn offense out of the endzone for much of the game, UGA will not be a problem.

Crompton was not the problem last week. The UT WRs dropped more passes than UGA did in the spring game. Also how many INTs does UGA have?

TommyP

October 9th, 2009
9:47 am

You went 5-5 ’cause you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about.

Need some insight, Tony. Please ask Schlabach to do your column next week.

Feel like Grandma wrote another column with this crap. At least you picked an upset or two this week. (Houston +2 and Georgia +1)

Renegade. LOL

mightyKC

October 9th, 2009
9:48 am

“LSU at home at night = win like 90% of the time.”

A word to the un-wise re: LSU and their home-night winning streak…typically they play SH*T teams!! Only a handful of those night games have been vs. actual competition.

Now that the SEC & ESPN are in bed, LSU will actually be playing a lot of quality SEC opponents at night.

Also, think about each team 2 yrs ago…LSU had the best defense in the land, jacob hester, an experienced QB. Guess what…ALL THAT IS GONE. UF had a buch of true freshman on defense, Tebow as a sophomore, a weak running game….AND ALL THAT IS BETTER NOW. and let me remind you that LSU had to get five 4th down conversions to scrape by.

FL leads the nation in rushing, Tebow is a senior, and that defense that got abused 2 yrs ago…ALL Those players are still here, and they are 2 years wiser/bigger/faster.

FL by 2 TDs, with our without Tebow….

TommyP

October 9th, 2009
9:48 am

Yeah…the “wear down the Vol defense” thing is just plain absurd.

And why would you pick UT over Auburn??????

Otto

October 9th, 2009
9:49 am

If it rains the advantage further goes to UT. They grind it out on the ground in a game that would resemble something Dooley would call.

RAMBLE ON!!!

October 9th, 2009
9:49 am

I think Tony is trying to back track from his totally homer and bias column when he wrote:

I have been covering college football as a professional journalist for 32 years and, without being too dramatic here, there is a good chance that the excessive celebration call on Georgia’s A.J. Green last Saturday against LSU is the single worst officiating mistake I have seen in my three decades of covering the sport.

Whoops, yeah, you said it Tony and even some SEC fans can begin to see what the rest of the College football world has known for a long time. You’re a homer with limited credibility.

Since you are Mr. College Football, then, I’m King of the Planet, and I’m predicting some very muddy games.

Unbiased observer

October 9th, 2009
9:50 am

LOL,

I tell you what – We will STFU as soon as you Dawg fans and Tony STFU about the excessive celebration penalty. How about that?

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
9:51 am

mightyKC, we play UF every other year….AT NIGHT!

Otto

October 9th, 2009
9:52 am

mighytKC don’t forget the Coordinators are gone in Baton Rouge too. It maybe closer than it should but UF wins unless UF gives up 3 or more turnovers which I see as unlikely even with a backup QB.

Mark D

October 9th, 2009
9:53 am

I bet I beat you Tony
GT 31 20
Tenn 21-20
Fla 27-13
Ark 34-20
Bama 17-14
SC 10-9
Miss St 38-29
VT 14-10
Mich 34-31
Ucla 41-28

Fleischman in Chattanooga

October 9th, 2009
9:54 am

It sounds like Nachos and Nikki Six are ready for some ICB’s for all of the games tomorrow.

Will

October 9th, 2009
9:54 am

Big Tone,

Your pics should also include:

The over/under of how many walk-ons that are on the UGA kick-off team.

The total number of pooch kicks by the UGA kick-off team.

The number of times I cuss at the TV every time I see Jon Fabris.

The over/under of 1 for backup qbs UGA has on their kick-off team.

The over/under of 5 for fair catches by the UGA back-up qbs.

The over/under for penalties by the kick-off team. I am going to say 3 here.

The over/under on how many times I have to hear “Rocky Top” after a special teams mishap.

The over/under for number of times CMR blames the wind for poor kick-off coverage.

Go Dawgs!

gatorrashad

October 9th, 2009
9:54 am

Gators all the way……..UF 28 LSU 13

Otto

October 9th, 2009
9:56 am

TigerBait, You’ve won the last 2 at home but going back before that UF’s owned the series. ‘05 was Urban’s 1st year and KC summed up ‘07. LSU is not what it was back then and UF has continued to build, as a UGA fan I hate it too.

Todd

October 9th, 2009
9:56 am

How can someone who calls himself Mr College Football go 5-5 and this doesn’t even include the spread? I never go 500 when I can pick straight up. That is a joke. Tony u don’t know much about CF.

You’re biggest blow this week is Miss St. They will beat Houston. Ucla will also win. Watch and learn.

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
9:57 am

Our coordinators are gone? That’s the best move Miles did was get rid of co-coordinators and bring in Chavis! Unless you are talking about Crowton who has been there since 07 (our BCS Championship year!)

ELR87

October 9th, 2009
9:58 am

CMR needs to make some changes to his staff. I predict a close victory…………..for UT over UGA.

LOL

October 9th, 2009
9:58 am

Ok Unbiased, I have yet to complain about the call, so STFU!

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
10:00 am

Well our winning streak goes back to 2002. There have been losses there but not on Saturday night. Yes we have played high school FCS teams but also quality teams. This year will be no different! It will still be a game filled with emotion. Les Miles is an excellant motivator! And our fans are excellant motivators! We may lose but it will be NO BLOWOUT! Regardless if Tebow plays or not! Our fans get under the players’ skin!

Otto

October 9th, 2009
10:03 am

If bringing in Chavis was a great move, LSU was far worse than I thought. There is a reason UT fans called it 3rd and Chavis.

Tommy Lee

October 9th, 2009
10:03 am

It sounds like Nachos, Nikki Sixx, and Fleischman are ready for some serious man love with each tomorrow.

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
10:05 am

UT had #6 total defense last year! And have been in top ten every year! UT fans are like UGA fans…They always have to complain about their coaches!

HotDawg

October 9th, 2009
10:05 am

Georgia is in trouble! Period! Coaching, atheletes, offense, defense and special teams. I mean is there an area that we don’t have concerns in? This is getting old in a hurry. Aren’t great coaches supposed to make adjustments whether it be the head coach or the coordinators or the equipment managers if a problem arises? Great coaches can adjust to the problem and try to fix it. I mean it seems like we are not even trying. Coach MR occasionally says we need to block better on running plays……you reckon! Will someone explain to me what the he!! is going on up there?

Not Disappointed!

October 9th, 2009
10:07 am

Mr. College Football you have some good picks for the weekend. I like the pups and jackets. I don’t know about Florida vs LSU. That maybe a toss up.

Ramblin Wreck!

War Eagle Beagle

October 9th, 2009
10:09 am

I love my tigers, but I am going to have to say Ark wins 38-21.This will be the biggest test to date and we just don’t have enough to stop the hogs.

Keith

October 9th, 2009
10:09 am

Tony is a joke to college football. Saying a unsportsman penalty is the worst call in his “32″ years shows how delusional and one sided he is. First, there’s something called replay. That wasn’t around 10 years ago. There were calls that GAVE or TOOK AWAY points from teams ALL THE TIME in the 80’s and 90’s when “tony” was following football. So how you can say a call that didn’t give or take away points is the worst shows tony’s obvious bias and lack of rational thinking. Even with replay, the refs still miss calls. A non pass int call when a player is in the end zone OR a pass int call when there was none on a bomb is far worse than some 15 yard kickoff penalty. Everyone knows that. Yet tony lets his adoration of his dawgies make him say stuff that is not even close to being true. Adding to it all is his 5-5 straight up predictions. 5-5? You can pick the home teams and go 5-5. Tony I don’t know how you got tagged with Mr College football but it’s the biggest oxymoron out there today.

Unbiased observer

October 9th, 2009
10:11 am

I’m not STFU until Tony and the rest of the AJC writers STFU. I think they will even write an article Sunday about UGA losing to UT because of the hangover from “the call” against AJ Green. Its pathetic and so are you LOL.

Bryan

October 9th, 2009
10:12 am

The worst officiating mistake was the Colorado Missouri game in 1990 where they were given 5 downs. I guess Tony was out of the country during that week.

misterwax

October 9th, 2009
10:13 am

Boycott that Liberal Bigot, Jeff Schultz….

Otto

October 9th, 2009
10:14 am

TigerBait, I you watch the UCLA game last year UT had every reason to complain about Chavis.

Also a substantial group of LSU’s fan base has never been that in love with Miles. He was getting some heat up until he won a national title and now many say he did it with Saban’s talent. Point is we all have those fans. I do agree the fans with be up in Baton Rouge Saturday night even if DiNardo is on the side line.

Otto

October 9th, 2009
10:16 am

Bryan, What about Oklahoma and Oregon with the multiple bad calls? It was on youtube search for Ducked if youtube has not pulled it down.

Saint Simons

October 9th, 2009
10:17 am

20 — 13 !!!!!!!!!!! hahahahahahahahhahahaha

Vol85

October 9th, 2009
10:18 am

UT fan, but realistically you would have to go w/Dawgs here. Factoring in expected weather, Vols lack of passing offense, and inconsistency of UGA offense, I expect a low score in the teens. UGA, like every other Vol opponent will stack the line and dare Crompton to beat them through the air. They’ll clamp down on the TE, who is Crompton’s favorite target for a variety of reasons, and take him out of play. That leaves either trying to run the ball w/Hardesty & Brown against a stacked box or Crompton having to make a play (not likely). As for the Dawgs I expect them to use their freshman TB (sorry, forget name) who played so well against LSU in giving the running game a spark and Charles, the TE, who also played well last week. Cox is the key. If he is patient and gets protection he should be able to complete enough throws, whether it’s to Green or not, to move UGA along. UT’s defense is hurting. They miss Reveiz more than expected at MLB and they have been susceptible to the big play in the past two games. I see a score of something like 17 – 14.

The Queen of College Football

October 9th, 2009
10:18 am

Tony, you need to start calling this the SACKLESS Friday Forecast.

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
10:19 am

LOL @ Otto! DiNardo…I miss that guy! Yeah you are right about fans not liking coaches. That has slimmed down at LSU though. I have always heard on blogs and stuff people complaining about Miles at different times. I do not know any LSU fans personally who do not like him anymore. When he gave his speech before the SEC champ game in 07 (Damn Strong Football Team Speech) that changed a lot of people’s minds about him.

Vol85

October 9th, 2009
10:24 am

Question to Tony: With Dez Bryant being ruled inelligible will the NCAA possibly strip OSU of victories he participated in (ala Memphis and Michigan basketball teams) or will it once again contradict itself in haphazardly applying a rulebook that is larger in size and weight than the yearly Federal Budget? I mean, think about it for a moment. A player that has been ruled inelligible scored two touchdowns against Georgia. Shouldn’t UGA be clamoring for the “W” in light of these developments?

Otto

October 9th, 2009
10:26 am

TigerBait, lol Miles does keep the SEC fun with his speaches even the OU fans get kick out of it and remember his stay at Okie St. Sill even if Les end last season like last season they’ll come out of the woodwork. It comes with a SEC job at a program that has tasted the big stage.

Vol85, have you watched UGA’s coverage of the TE? SOS and Petrino would say exploit it all day. Crompton is no Heisman winner but he did not look that bad against Auburn. In prior games I would agree he looked terrible. Dropped balls killed him last week.

Nikki Sixx

October 9th, 2009
10:26 am

Hey Tommy Lee…

Where u watching the game over in midtown tomorrow?

I saw you the other day putting up those rainbow banners on the light post. Congrats on geting Deloitte to sponsor too!

Otto

October 9th, 2009
10:27 am

grr hit submit to soon

*Still if Les ends this season like last season they’lll come out of the woodwork complaining.

Bryan

October 9th, 2009
10:30 am

Otto I remember that game. That was def right there with the 5 downs. Could be even worse. I might add, any time a call gives the other team possession when it clearly shouldn’t, as that one did, it’s 10000 x worse than a 15 yard kick off call. Tony is a da for even saying what he did.

here’s the link for that call. yeah that dang 15 yarder is so much worse. lol

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSIykYoM260

Captain Sarcasm

October 9th, 2009
10:30 am

TigerBait: What is your record on Monday Nights?

Sincerely, Rick Clausen

Hope y’all beat the ‘bows.

JB

October 9th, 2009
10:32 am

Dawgs Will:………………………………Fair catch every punt. Kick off out of bounds at least once ( only because we won’t score much and have many chances). Try 3 long field goals, make two. Rush for 120 yards.give up over 300 yards offense to the only offense in the SEC worse than us. Allow their noodle arm QB the best day of his career, say 160 yards passing……and we still might win 13-10 or so.

Dr. Phill

October 9th, 2009
10:33 am

The Bulldogs are disintegrating. Richt is criticizing players by name in the media, Rex Robinson is angry, and Soulja Boy is in jail. Sorry, but Kiffen wins this one.

TigerBait

October 9th, 2009
10:35 am

LOL Captain Sars! 0-1! I give Miles the benefit of the doubt. Yes, he won the 07 champ with Saban’s boys. You still have to coach them right? Right now he still has the talent! Jefferson is still warming up. Defenses we are playing right now are putting 8 in the box and forcing us to throw. Hence our poor offensive performance right now. Wehnever Jefferson finally gets his timing and accuracy down then our running game will come through.

Captain Sarcasm

October 9th, 2009
10:37 am

Agree. Jefferson can grow into a nice QB. UF’s secondary is no joke, though. There are a great many interesting matchups here; just hoping Tebow is still fighting off some cobwebs so you can baptize John Brantley by fire!

CharlotteGator

October 9th, 2009
10:37 am

LOL and others,

I imagine people’s complaint is that Tony’s line on the game could be considered a backhanded compliment at best. Check it out. LSU deserving to win was almost an aside at the very end. Like, ‘man look at this paragraph I just wrote. Let me not come off totally wrong and give some credit’. I take the nevertheless to mean ‘I really feel strongly about what I wrote first, but have to throw in this second part to not look bad.’ Just my 2 cents..

“Your Fearless Forecaster went 5-5 last week because he didn’t know that:

**–An unsportsmanlike conduct penalty (they’ve asked us not to call it excessive celebration) could be called for players looking into the stands or pointing to the sky. Nevertheless, LSU made the plays at the end of the game and deserved to beat Georgia.”

Bryan

October 9th, 2009
10:41 am

Otto
Actually you are right. That is by far the worst officiating ever. And they had replay. They missed 3 calls on the same play. Oregon touched the onside kick before it went 10 yards. Oregon touched the ball FIRST AND the worst, oregon didn’t even recover the ball. Unbelievable. But yeah a 15 yard penalty on a kickoff is far worse. ROFL

gdawginkalamazoo

October 9th, 2009
10:42 am

I predict some great football this week. Glad UGA/UT gets an early start. Here’s to the D stopping Hardesty. That is the key to game. That and NOT playing the soft zone. Even Crompton would shred that thing.

CharlotteGator

October 9th, 2009
10:42 am

As far as the game, I’m very nervous because Death Valley at night is nothing to play with. The place just breeds uncertainty. LSU’s first title year, the Gators took a totally overmatched team down there and somehow found a way to win. Then in 07 they go down, take it to LSU and then unvravel from the end of 3rd quarter on to give the game away (I’m sure LSU fans feel different). Actually, gave it away is strong. LSU had something to do with it. More like let LSU take it from them w/o putting up a fight.

I expect a classic one that goes back and forth. I’m hoping the D can step up and make amends for their performance in 07. If they do, we get a special teams play, and limit the mistakes on offense, then we can pull this one out. Tebow or not, I think that’s what the Gators need to win this one. That’s probably generic I know, but a night game in a hostile environment makes it more important for UF to focus on those things to get the win.

I’m not confident either way on this win, but obviously hope that UF wins and that Tebow sits if there’s any question whatsoever about his health or if he can’t go 100% like he has before. That seems unlikely to me, so I guess a part of me hopes he sits this one out for his sake. Playing timid is what will get him hurt again.

JB

October 9th, 2009
10:44 am

Tell you I feel sorry for……the sponsers who have bought TV advertising for the Ga/Tenn game. 12;00.
two mules fighting over a turnip is what we’ll get……both these proud programs WILL be back soon.