It is amazing that Georgia is 3-1
Nobody asked me but:
1. Logically, there is no way Georgia should be 3-1: I believe that turnover margin is the most important statistic in football. Turnover margin is the number of turnovers you have created compared to the number that you have given up. Good teams are almost always in the plus territory in turnover margin. Through four games, Georgia is minus-9 in turnover margin (12 giveaways versus 3 takeaways). Georgia is also 115th nationally in penalties with 41 in four games.
Coach Mark Richt told me on Tuesday that he was confident that his Bulldogs could turn those stats around. “The important thing to know about stats like that is what happens in the past does not matter,” Richt said. “What matters is what happens on Saturday against LSU.” He’s right. If Georgia keeps its turnovers to two or fewer, I think the Bulldogs have a very good chance to win. If they stick to their average of three turnovers and 10 penalties per game, they won’t.
2. Florida can beat LSU without Tebow: Everybody seems to have an opinion on whether or not Tim Tebow should play on Oct. 10 against LSU. Concussions are a tricky thing, to be sure. And there are people who seem to believe that there will be pressure to put Tebow back into action before it is safe to do so. If you know the Florida medical staff, you know that is not going to happen. If you know Tebow’s dad, Bob, you know that is not going to happen. If you know Urban Meyer and his relationship with the Tebows, you know that it is not going to happen. How about this? Instead of worrying what Florida is going to do with Tebow, let’s talk about whether or not the Gators can win in Baton Rouge without him. The answer is yes. I’ll explain next week but know that it has to do with defense.
3. Florida State has to win at Boston College: Here is a great stat from Corey Clark of the Tallahassee Democrat. In 2005 Florida State was ranked No. 4 in the nation when it was upset by unranked Virginia. Since then Florida State has played 48 games against Division I-A competition. In those games Florida State, which was once the most dominant program in college football, is 25-23. Here is another big stat from Corey: In its last 16 games against teams from the six BCS conferences (excluding Duke), Florida State is 5-11. That is staggering. A team at this level that almost loses to Jacksonville State and loses to a USF team with a brand new quarterback has big issues. It is an issue of focus. Coaches get paid to get their team ready to play. I have a great amount of respect and admiration for Bobby Bowden. But his team was not well coached last week.
4. Oklahoma has to win at Miami: Miami is a young, talented football team that got a lot of love after impressively beating Georgia Tech. Then Miami went on the road against a veteran Virginia Tech team and was exposed as a young team not quite ready for prime time. I expect them to bounce back and play well against Oklahoma. But it is Oklahoma that really has to win Saturday’s game at Miami. Because of its 14-13 loss to BYU on Sept. 5, the Sooners have absolutely no margin for error if they want to stay in the national championship race. Obviously Bob Stoops and company want to still be a factor when they face No. 2 Texas in Dallas on Oct. 17. If Oklahoma loses at Land Shark Stadium then the Sooners can only play the role of spoiler for Texas. They would hate to be in that position.
5. Ole Miss does not have a gimme at Vanderbilt: Ole Miss was knocked out of the No. 4 ranking last week with a loss to South Carolina. But the Rebels will still win the SEC West if they run the table. They have Alabama coming to Oxford on Oct. 10, Arkansas on Oct. 24, Tennessee on Nov. 14 and LSU on Nov. 21. So the schedule is set up for Ole Miss to make a nice run. But there is a problem. Vanderbilt tends to play Ole Miss tough. In fact, the Commodores beat the Rebels last season in Oxford. If Ole Miss gets caught looking ahead to Alabama, the Rebels could be out of the SEC West race by the first Saturday in October.
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301 comments Add your comment
TenSpeed
September 30th, 2009
12:36 pm
Fire Willie: Hire Greer!!
Invictus Mon
September 30th, 2009
12:37 pm
1) Georgia wins this weekend if and only if their defense shows up (that’s why they won it last weekend).
2)Who cares about Florida vs LSU right now? We’ve got a week of football to play before that.
3) When was the last time Bobby Bowden actually did anything that could be considered a head coach’s responsibility at FSU? When he hired Jimbo to do it for him.
4) Miami will beat Oklahoma at home. Period.
5)Yeah Ole Miss was a bit overrated, but a game against Vandy is never a gimme. Vandy plays everyone tough every year. They just haven’t always come out on top. Ask the Vols a few years ago when they got knocked out of bowl eligibility.
6) Come out with something fresh and originial. It didn’t take any thought to write that and most of it was wrong (or at least off point).
AZ Jacket
September 30th, 2009
12:40 pm
how2fish, It goes both ways. There are plenty of UGA fans who camp out on the Tech blogs just to stir things up.
PTC DAWG, I say the same to you. It goes both ways. Some UGA fans had rather spew names at GT than really discuss the problems with UGA.
The way I figure it those UGA fans that are complaining about the GT fans degrading talk about UGA are not reading the UGA blogs or they agree with them.
gatorman770
September 30th, 2009
12:41 pm
Bone – Talk about Herschel Walker in the early 80’s got real old too, but we all got over it and we all know that Herschel and Bo Jackson deserved the constant press during their playing days just as Tim Tebow deserves it now!
Shane
September 30th, 2009
12:54 pm
Gators lose to LSU without Tebow or Gators lose to LSU with Tebow! Either way Oscar Meyer will make an excuse, either Tebow didnt play or he wasnt 100%! Punk!
Shane
September 30th, 2009
12:56 pm
Tebow and Herbskeet should marry and move to the farm!
SoGaSeminole
September 30th, 2009
12:56 pm
Bobby Bowden is a terrorist and this hostage situation cannot end soon enough, BB was the greatest coach in all of college football and is now nothing but a selfish shell of that man. He has torn down near everything he built. Jimbo cannot be judged until he gets his own D staff and a staff with some cohesiveness. We have BBs coaches vs. JFs coaches and we wont beat anyone until we stop beating ourselves. BB has nothing to do with offensive gameplanning all week then wants to make a play call come 3rd and goal on Saturdays!? He is a part-time coach we shell out 2.5mil a year to plus another 1mil to his part-time cronie assistants. On top of that we have 5 coaches with the words ‘HEAD COACH’ in their title (HC, HCIW, asst., assoc., exec.). Until that money goes towards buying the best DC in football, FSU will not be back. TK and MA have stated they are gone this year and they can take Spetman and his idiotic scheduling with them.
MVP
September 30th, 2009
12:58 pm
UGA losing streak will start with LSU and it’s down hill for the mutts the rest of the season as always.
GATOR88
September 30th, 2009
12:59 pm
I guess some of you don’t understand the old apples and oranges thing. Just cause LSU struggled AT MSU doesn’t mean squat!!! Anything goes in an SEC game and anything REALLY goes in an SEC road game where the home team is the underdog. That being said I see a UF/LSU defensive struggle. I have no clue on UGA-but if they keep winning and we keep winning… I think 10/31 starts looking like a very interesting game. One which I thought was going to be an easy one. Something a lot of you whiners may not understand but no matter how you are playing, or who you are, if you keep winning it gets harder to stop!!!
David
September 30th, 2009
1:03 pm
Mark Richt has hit a coaching ceiling. 115 place in penalties? That is a indication of a poorly coached team. That is no secret. However, if they can win with out coaching it is a testament to their talent.
How long will that last?
David Granger
September 30th, 2009
1:03 pm
Agree with you, Tony, that UGA could very well NOT be 3-1. Although…personally…I think with better coaching we could very well be 4-0…I don’t think we have played a team yet that has better talent than we do.
I’m glad that we’re playing a tough schedule this year. (Although with a new QB it sure would have been a good year to have had one of those “thump-a-chump” games just as a tuneup.) Still, I hope we continue to play tough schedules every year.
Our defense has GOT to step up for us to beat LSU. I don’t think we can win another shootout like Arkansas.
Turnover margin is a killer for us, and I’m not sure what’s the problem. We’ve got two pretty good running backs, but it sure seems that they’ve got cement hands at times. And a number of Joe Cox’s interceptions have been just plain poor throws. I sure wish we had blown out a few teams that we were clearly BETTER than the last couple of years, so we could have let Joe run the offense the entire fourth quarter and develop a little (1.) experience, and (2.) confidence. That way he would know that taking a sack or just throwing the ball away now and again is not the end of the world. But we sure have played to the level of our opponents since Coach Richt has been there. Wouldn’t it be nice to have a huge lead going into the last quarter for a couple of games, and let Logan Gray run the offense to prep him for next year?
To some degree I understand the criticism of Urban Meyer, but the damn BCS has become a beauty contest where running up the score can be worth millions at the end of the season. Plus, I think Florida has also been trying to let Tebow “pad” his stats a little, in a push for him to win another Heisman. Personally, I like Tim, and I hope he comes back healthy and strong.
And it doesn’t matter what the comparative schedules look like…UGA and GT play each other at the end of the season, and that’s what counts.
brokenknuckle
September 30th, 2009
1:04 pm
Shane classy………..Punk!
Anonymous
September 30th, 2009
1:05 pm
Hey Shane:
You must be a proud, mountain of a man.
SoGaSeminole
September 30th, 2009
1:05 pm
Question for any of you Bayou Bengals,
What are your opinions on Jimbo as a HC? Some people are already calling for his head down here in Tallahassee but I don’t think we can judge him until he gets 2 years of his own staff… if there wasn’t a pot of gold waiting for him in January 2011 I believe JF would already be gone, I dont think any coach in college football could be in a worse position…
Sam
September 30th, 2009
1:06 pm
GeoffDawg, even without that questionnable call on Jones, UGA is not going to win that game. UGA did nothing offensively (actually they did a lot that was “offensive”) after that first drive.
bamafan
September 30th, 2009
1:06 pm
Enter your comments here
bamafan
September 30th, 2009
1:11 pm
Hey Tiger in Georgia – we certainly admire your confidence with wins over UGA and BAMA and two wins over Florida. If it happens, LSU should be the national champs. However, you will need to play better than you have. Despite all the talk about 3-1 UGA, LSU also needs to stop its underachievement. This week LSU is at # 4 but try not to drink the same kool aid Ole Miss did. I am not certain BAMA deserves a # 3 ranking, but I am pretty sure LSU does not deserve its # 4. Beating UGA will not even validate a # 4 ranking, but it will be a good start.
G8R GRAD
September 30th, 2009
1:16 pm
bamafan:
I’m more comfortable with your ranking than ours!
how2fish
September 30th, 2009
1:19 pm
AZ Jacket you may have a point I’ve only visited the Tech blog a couple of times and didn’t notice a lot of UGA fans at that time..but your right too many folks want to just trash another program…just like some “fans’ like to trash their own program..always find it amazing when a fan starts getting into “play calling” and what’s wrong with the coaching..as if they have half a clue on what is being attempted during a game..you have to STUDY the other team and KNOW your own players abilities…not something you can do after watching a 3 hour game and then blogging about it.If knowing what will happen during a game were easy you wouldn’t have anywhere to place bets on them.
GT Brill
September 30th, 2009
1:22 pm
bamafan, BAMA does NOT deserve a #3 ranking….they deserve a #1 ranking. Best team I have seen all year. Their line play on both sides of the ball is phenomonal. Glad Daddy GT Brill doesn’t read blogs, he is still pi$$ed about the “Chick Graening incident” and would cut me out of the will for this praise of Bama.
SEC was just one team,
September 30th, 2009
1:26 pm
but now you have to include bama.
matt
September 30th, 2009
1:27 pm
SoGASeminole– Let’s just say, we were not that unhappy when Fisher left. He’s a great recruiter but his playcalling is very questionable. He’ll get away from the run at the worst of times and seems to ask young QB’s to do way too much. I don’t think he’ll last very long as a head coach.
Denver Dog
September 30th, 2009
1:27 pm
Az Jacket, good point Florida could not beat Ga Tech, UGA is way overrated, and LSU is terrible. I guess that is what you call your “great academics”. You have fallend to fourth in the state for Academics, deal with it. You are always last in football.
Jumbeaux, as good as talent would be correct. Have fun at the game, and may the best team win.
Penalties and Turnovers will decide this game.
Tebow is not hurt all that badly.
Tech will forever be second rate as a football power. Maybe they can get to a conference championship game someday. Then maybe they can talk about a BCS bowl. You have never been to a BCS bowl, heck even Cincinatti, Boise, Utah, and the Mighty Rainbows have don that. So don’t talk about UGA problem Techies, talk about your own. Like starting with the gang actvity on your campus, then giving away free tickets to your games, then maybe how to keep terrorists out of your labs and perverts out of your residence halls and offf of your facutly.
Denver Dog
September 30th, 2009
1:30 pm
How 2 fish, you may want to read some other comments from AZ Jacket before you start singing his praises. He never credits UGA with anything, calls names, makes up things and fails the smell test. He is either really sly, or sick with some mpd.
Jo Jo YO
September 30th, 2009
1:30 pm
The Dawgs played solid and beat that traditional football power that is Arizona State last week. This week should be easy playing some school named LSU who have never won anything in the schools history.
happily retired
September 30th, 2009
1:31 pm
Tebow should not play his next game, the risk of a another injury is too much. I am not a doctor, but I know a second injury in such a short time period would be severe. This should be an easy decision for the Coach. But the pressure is going to be on the Coach and Tebow to play. Which is terrible, he is a college student/athlete, he doesn’t have a million dollar contract to fall back on.
UGA ALL THE WAY
September 30th, 2009
1:31 pm
Typical, the only reason they added those teams is cuz we have ALWAYS had a killer schedule while all u other crybabys had at least 3 teams that were of high school caliber… Would you like me to name a few of y’alls lame schedule and schedule to be??? Its people like you and ur love partner saint simons that make it hard for us to keep quiet until gameday, but either way, GT’s DAY IS COMING!!!!! Should b a good game!
Trade School Junkie
September 30th, 2009
1:36 pm
In 2007, LSU went 10-2 regular season. In 2008, LSU went 7-5 regular season. Stories out of Lousisana already had Les Miles on the hot seat at the end of 2008.
His job was on the line at end of 2008. Its REALLY on the line now.
This is an absolute “MUST WIN” game for Les Miles.
LSU Schedule after u-gag includes:
Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Ark.
LSU has NO SHOT against Florida or Bama. Long odds against beating AU. More even odds vs. Ole Miss & Ark.
Consider how bad LSU looked vs. MissSt, as compared to how Auburn DESTROYED MissSt. LSU win over Vandy was not impressive: 5 trips to red-zone with 2 TDs & 3 FGs…against Vandy. LSU beat Vandy 23-9. MissSt beat Vandy 15-3.
LSU has looked AWFUL. And a #4 AP ranking for LSU is LAUGHABLE.
But, so is the whole BCS…but, I digress.
Miles needs this win in a FAR WORSE way, than CMR needs it.
LSU escapes with a narrow win.
ratdawg
September 30th, 2009
1:38 pm
The oddsmakers have GA a 3 pt. favorite over the #4 team in the land. Tony, can you shed some light without giving us the home field is worth 3 points?
Trade School Junkie
September 30th, 2009
1:40 pm
OK will thump Miami. Stoops needs the “style points.”
Wont surprise me if the game is a COMPLETE BLOWOUT.
GT Brill
September 30th, 2009
1:40 pm
Denver Dog…ZING ! That hurt.
how2fish
September 30th, 2009
1:41 pm
Denver Dog no worries I’m not ready to join him, Yellow Fuzz and m at the Great North Ave Tickle Pile..but I truly didn’t know there were a lot of UGA trollers on the Tech blogs so it was only fair to concede his point.
Dawg Fud
September 30th, 2009
1:41 pm
Ditto Herschel Talker.
AltamahaDawg
September 30th, 2009
1:45 pm
AZ Jacket, when you read the UGA fans that are on the tech blogs too much, what is your impression of them?
LOL
September 30th, 2009
1:45 pm
So G8R GRAD, someone makes an anonymous post on a blog stating that UGA fans were cheering the Tebow hit and you automatically take it as fact. Good stuff!
Well, I was at a different bar last night and I saw Gator fans cheering when a replay of the Sam Bradford hit was played. How utterly classless of them!
Now, everyone should just take that as a fact, right? I mean, no one on these blogs has an agenda to make their rival look bad.
GT Brill
September 30th, 2009
1:48 pm
I love to party with LSU fans and drool over their coeds, that being said they should not be #4. They are there by default and will fall heavily if the dawgs don’t turn the ball over a ton and they take care of bidness. Who does UGA have after LSU ? If they beat the Tigers, the dawgs will be damn close to moving into the top ten.
longtimesecfan
September 30th, 2009
1:49 pm
Enter your comments here
one thing i don’t understand about the FSU situation which i
would like some of you experts to explain: Bobby Bowden has not coached a lick in many years- the DC himself said so publicly long ago. the coordinators do the coaching and BB just recruits (prayer sesssions) and gives pep talks to team. is it lack of talent or poor DC-OR coaching? beats me.
Dawg Fud
September 30th, 2009
1:50 pm
LSU QB Jefferson is a huge mismatch for the Dawgs. We saw what Garcia did against us…Jefferson has a similar skill set but he is much, much better and has phenomenal talent surrounding him.
I don’t know how we match up against him. The “Liberian Nightmare” (aka Rennie Curran) cannot shadow Jefferson all night. He has to pick up backs and tight ends and play a zone in a nickel pacakage.
I honsetly see that as a HUGE advantage for LSU.
We need sustained drives to keep Jefferson off the field.
GO DAWGS!!!
Blue
September 30th, 2009
1:51 pm
Geoffdawg 9:12AM; dude, freaking give the ‘bad calls’ thing a break. I get tired of ‘dawg’ fans blaming officials after EVERY freaking loss. I read it and heard it last year after you were physically dominated by Alabama and Florida. Man up…you got beat! Bad calls happen both ways. Are you telling me that in the OK ST game, no calls went missed the other way? Are you telling me that in your three wins, no calls were missed that might have benefited GA? Let me call you a ‘wahhhhmbulance’.
bamafan
September 30th, 2009
1:54 pm
Dear G8R GRAD – always tough to play from the top with everyone gunning for you. If Bama is to climb to the top we might as well get a boost from beating # 1 Florida (assuming we can). UF doesn’t seem to have the same chemistry (yet?) as last year and does seem to be over-reliant on Tim Tebow running the ball. Lots of folks want to point to this as the crack in Florida’s armor……not sure it is. At this point, I see you guys in the Dome again. Both LSU and UGA must break completely out of the underachievement mode to challenge you. As for BAMA, Ole Miss is now firmly back into a comfortable place as a spoiler (thanks to USC). BAMA v. LSU is iffy as the game is in Tuscaloosa……has anybody taken a look at the winners of that game the past 25 years?
The visiting team wins almost 80% of the time!!!!
GT Brill – thank you for your kind comments. I like what I see but don’t want to lose objectivity (drink the kool aid!)
Dawg Fud
September 30th, 2009
1:54 pm
ditto on GT Brill’s comment re: Bama
if i was voting, i would rank Bama #1.
that’s not a slight to UF. they are damn good. i just see Bama playing at a much higher level in all facets of the game right now.
i know the Gators have put up big numbers, but they have not played half the schedule Bama has. there is no debating that.
GO DAWGS!
bamafan
September 30th, 2009
2:03 pm
GT Brill – regarding the Chick Granning incident, it was unfortunate all around. I recently (in separate articles) read where both Granning and Darwin Holt have blamed the incident for negative things in their lives and both appear resentful (Granning of the injury and Holt regarding the negative press). It ruined the relationship between Bobby Dodd and Bear Bryant that took 15 years to heal.
Pago Flyer
September 30th, 2009
2:05 pm
The DAWGS don’t want to go up against Ohio States defense this year.
Call it Like It Is
September 30th, 2009
2:05 pm
Yeah quaildawg
Something that UGAY has never had and never will CLASS!
Gators roll over GA again.
Enough Said!
derrick
September 30th, 2009
2:06 pm
For all these people who talk about Georgia turnovers and all the pentlies that they have substane really cant see a good team when they see one. Threw all the pentlies and turnovers they still find ways to win games. At the end of the day the only stat that matters is the W or L. The college football world better be glad that they do turn the ball over or get pentlies like they do because if they didnt Georgia would be unstoppable. Now imagine that. If they played a complete game no team in the country would be able to stop them.
stevemwt
September 30th, 2009
2:09 pm
Without AJ Green Dogs are 0-4.
Circus Act
September 30th, 2009
2:10 pm
Whats so surprising about UGA being 3 – 1 when these clowns should be 4 – 0 with ease. UGA hasn’t played anybody yet. Repeat UGA hasn’t played anyone yet! CMR has been wasting time and talent since his bail out guy left him 4 years ago. Should beat LSU and might get lucky again. This team still has no national respect even if they do eek out a win. They are nothing but a bunch of undisciplined thugs coached by a bunch of Bozos!
GT Brill
September 30th, 2009
2:10 pm
Yea, it was a bad deal all around. I think it happened in 61 and I wasn’t born till 63 so I had no first hand knowledge of it, actually. But my dad has mentioned it before and it is in Tony’s Southern Fried Football book (which I thoroughly enjoyed). I’ve always liked Bama myself, just thought I would throw that in to see if there were any old timers out on the blog.
JB
September 30th, 2009
2:14 pm
geez, keep your comments to 3-10 sentences if you want them read.
JB
September 30th, 2009
2:16 pm
circus act……crawl back to the hell hole of Grant Field………………………plenty of seats I hear.