What have we learned from the preseason magazines?
Here is a fun exercise I like to do before going to ACC and SEC Media Days. I take about five preseason magazines, put all of their predictions down on paper and compare them. There is not a lot of heavy lifting involved, but it gives you a mini consensus of what other people thinking.
The five magazines I used this year are: Athlon, Lindy’s, Phil Steele, The Sporting News, and a new one published by the folks who produce The Kickoff.
Example: Here are the pre-season Top Fives for each magazine:
Athlon: Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Ohio State
Lindy’s: Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Virginia Tech
Phil Steele: Florida, Texas, USC, Oklahoma, Penn State
Sporting News: Florida, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Ole Miss
The Kickoff: Florida, USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Ohio State
What did we learn? That Florida, USC, Texas, and Oklahoma are in everybody’s top four in some combination. Four of the five magazines had different No. 5s: Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Penn State, and Ole Miss.
Conclusion? A lot of people are going to be surprised if the two teams in the BCS championship game don’t come from the mix of Florida, USC, Texas, and Oklahoma.
SEC TEAMS IN THE TOP 25
Athlon: Florida (1), Alabama (6), Ole Miss (10), Georgia (14), LSU (17)
Lindy’s: Florida (1), LSU (6), Alabama (7), Ole Miss (9), Georgia (17)
Phil Steele: Florida (1), Ole Miss (6), Alabama (8), Georgia (13), LSU (17)
Sporting News: Florida (1), Ole Miss (5), LSU (8), Alabama (13), Georgia (15)
The Kickoff: Florida (1), LSU (6), Georgia (10), Alabama (11), Ole Miss (16), Tennessee (25).
What did we learn? All five magazines had Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia, and LSU ranked. The Kickoff added Tennessee at No. 25. Georgia is ranked between 10 and 17 with four of the magazines having the Bulldogs between 13-17. I think that’s about right.
Conclusion: Ole Miss and LSU are all over the map. Ole Miss is as low as No. 5 and as high as No. 16. LSU is as low as No. 6 and as high as No. 17. Alabama is in the Top 10 in three magazines and are rated No. 13 and No. 11 in two others. That is why the SEC West race is going to be so interesting.
ACC TEAMS IN THE TOP 25
Athlon: Virginia Tech (8), Florida State (15), North Carolina (19), Georgia Tech (22)
Lindy’s: Virginia Tech (5), Georgia Tech (16), Florida State (18), North Carolina (19)
Phil Steele: Virginia Tech (11), Miami (21), Clemson (25).
Sporting News: Virginia Tech (6), Georgia Tech (11), Florida State (17), North Carolina (23)
The Kickoff: Virginia Tech (8), Georgia Tech (13), Florida State (17), North Carolina (19).
What did we learn? Everybody but Phil Steele has Virginia Tech in their Top 10, so that should get your attention if you’re an Alabama fan. Miami, which is expected to be better in Randy Shannon’s third year, only cracked one Top 25 (Phil Steele). That’s because everybody else likes Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina in the Coastal Division ahead of the Hurricanes.
Conclusion: Virginia Tech is a solid favorite to win the Coastal, but not without a fight. The Atlantic is wide open as four magazines like Florida State but Clemson jumped into Phil Steele’s Top 25. N.C. State, in its third season under Tom O’Brien, could be a surprise team
What are your thoughts? Do these guys have it about right? Tomorrow we will break down the order of finish in the ACC and on Friday we’ll do the SEC. That should be enough homework to get us ready for media days.
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220 comments Add your comment
The Grinch
July 8th, 2009
3:21 pm
To RamblinWreck1378
No, but Reggie was “smart” enough to be accepted at tech, right? You know, one of those “academically superior” student-athletes drawn to the flats. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Gatorzone
July 8th, 2009
3:35 pm
Pac10, that is a good analysis to which I agree with many of your points.
Dawgmess, yes this blog was pretty good until m showed up and got better once that idiot was gone. I am not a UGA fan, but I agree with you guys who are sick of seeing his trivial postings here.
Chapel Bell
July 8th, 2009
3:37 pm
150+ posts and less than 25 answered/commented on Tony’s question. Dawg Mess nailed it.
Otto
July 8th, 2009
3:42 pm
Bama fans, Every school has them, most of Bama shots are directed at him.
PAC10, I’m still with GT dropping 2 games in conf and atleast 1 OOC. The ACC playing is just so even and GT’s strength was their DL. Yes the option attack improved. I’m not sure which one they’ll drop and nobody could pick the ACC winner last year. I’m looking for more of the same. Clemson, VT, and FSU are all toss up games. In the wacky ACC Miami and UNC could pull it off as well. Could GT win them all it is possible but not likely.
Kiffin Sr. does not have the talent to ROCK the SEC and CFB players do not have the practice time to fully learn a NFL defense. The SEC has the best DCs in the CFB business. Kiffin also has to face a spread option like UF which is not played in the NFL.
While we’re on UF they have the most talented team in the country and Florida is one of the most talent rich areas of the country. Add a focused good coach with the other Florida powers struggling and you have a top team. Yes WVU beat UGA. I think even WVU would admit UGA was more concerned with the party after the game for the first 20min than the game. Watching the full game UGA learned how to shut them down quickly. Congrats to WVU, they came in prepared and focused. UGA did not.
Petrino can coach the offense no doubt but the team is young and the schedule is brutal. UGA, at Bama, Tx A&M, Auburn, at UF, at Ole Miss, and finally a breather with E. Michigan. They’ll be lucky to be 3-3 n that stretch. If injuries from the brutal schedule set in the learning curve will be delayed and S. Car and Miss St. get messy. IMO LSU beats them in Baton Rouge to end the season. Ark can get to 5 losses in a hurry.
Most are picking Bama, Ole Miss and LSU as the top 3 in the west and Ark gets all 3 on the road. UF is preseason #1 also on the road. They draw UGA as the other east team on rotation which many pick as 2nd in the East but get lucky finally getting a tough game at home. Auburn and Miss. St have easier schedules.
UGA often over performs when little is expected and underperforms what the media expects when they are picked high. Last season was no real shock for me especially once lineman started to fall. The media looked over UGA in ‘07. UGA fans watching the UF (lost by 7 UF BCS champs), Auburn and VT games in ‘06 knew UGA had the talent in ‘07 and that mistakes of a young team kept UGA from winning. The media did not expect UGA to be in a national title debate in ‘07.
Tide Rising
July 8th, 2009
3:43 pm
I wondered where the grinch was today.
My apologies to all. I broke my own rules today. I engaged in debate with m and violated my own oath to “never argue with an idiot. They’ll only drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.”
larry munchin
July 8th, 2009
3:50 pm
texas/georgia in BCS CG. what i’ve learned about preseason rankings….not to even bother with em. they had w va.,auburn, lsu and a few more in the top ten they missed on last year. look at 12-15, that’ll be who crawls towards the top. always do.
now, where’s my drink?
The Grinch
July 8th, 2009
3:55 pm
To Tide Rising
Glad to know I was missed. BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!
What’s your take on the Tide this year. I’ve heard a lot of reports about the seniors you lost (especially OL and QB), but not much about their replacements. I feel 12-0 probably won’t happen, but I think you could be in the driver’s seat in the SEC West. I think the Ole Miss expectations are a little too high, and I’m not convinced LSU will be dominant this year either.
Fools Gold
July 8th, 2009
4:00 pm
We have learned that the sport magazine pundits think UGA will be a distant 2nd to Florida in the SEC east. And of course now Alabama ,LSU and Ole Miss is ahead overall in the SEC. UGAs redemption will be scoring style points and playing some intimidating defense against teams like Vandy and South Carolina. But yes the pundits believe that the UGA program is merely a fools gold program after all is said and done……. P. S. ..UGA fans may just go ahead and invest in the Boone Pickens energy plan rather than the dawgs this year.
Otto
July 8th, 2009
4:02 pm
Grinch,
McElroy is an Elite 11 QB, followed Chase Daniel in HS and most reports say he is a good student of the game in the film room as well as mechanics. He has the scouting report to win.
RB and OL are my question marks.
Tide Rising
July 8th, 2009
4:03 pm
Larry munchin,
There is some credence to your idea that in some years at least a 1/3rd of the time the eventual national champion usually comes from somewhere in the teens 12-15 or even higher.
Looking back when OU won it in 99 they started out high teens 18th at best I think(7-5 the year before with a loss to Ole Miss in their bowl game)
When OHIO St. won it in 2002 I think it was they started out low or mid teens and were only 7-5 the year before like OU. Ohio State was coming off a bowl loss also to South Carolina I think the year before.
LSU was ranked only 13th or 15th to start when they won it in 2003 (they were 9-3 or 9-4 the year before) There were a bunch of runnerups also that didn’t start out the season in the top 10. Utah last year is just one example.
Who will be the surprise team this year to make a run from the mid teens to the top or at least a runner up finish?
Rebel Rouser
July 8th, 2009
4:17 pm
Alabama will get spanked on Natonal TV by Va. Tech and they will quickly fall out of the top twenty. They are way over rated. Saban can recruit but history shows his teams always under acheive…Bama fans are in for a long year…they are not very good and lack quality unproven players at key positions on their team. LSU, Ole Miss and Arkansas will beat Bama…book it! Looks like a four or five loss season and a whole lot of finger pointing by the Bama faithful in 2009.
Tide Rising
July 8th, 2009
4:23 pm
Grinch,
We feel like we’re above you guys and are now too good for the college game. We don’t feel you guys are worthy of playing us. So we’re just gonna skip the college game and go straight to playing the Steelers in the super bowl. How’s that for the delusional bama fan?
Seriously, McElroy is to us what Cox is to UGA. He’s been biding his time, knows the offense, good leader, blah blah. Lot of parallels between him and Cox. People at UGA say while Cox doesn’t have the cannon Stafford did(who does anyway) he has a better touch on the deep ball and still has very adequate arm strength. Same with McElroy. I follow UGA also and noticed that both he and Wilson at Bama really didn’t have that great a touch on deep balls, lot of overthrows.
I see Bama as a 2, possibly 3 loss team in the regular season with possible losses to Ole Miss, Va Tech, and an upset loss somewhere. Same with UGA 2 losses with a possible loss to UF and then one other upset loss somewhere else.
I hope you’re right and that I’m wrong but I really feel like Ole Miss is the real deal. They just have to avoid the injury bug because they aren’t as deep as everyone else. We had a great season last year primarily due to the fact that we were lucky in that we largely stayed injury free. That’s the giant X factor that nobody can really tell about any team till the season gets going. Just look at the dawgs last year with Sturdivant , your fb, and a couple other players going down before the season even started.
Anyway, Ole Miss the last 5 games last year reminds me of Georiga in 07. The last several games of the season they weren’t just beating people, they were destroying them. Call me crazy but I think this just may be their year. Beside, I think Nutt is a helluva underrated coach that has never had the overall talent to work with that other coaches have had. But he has given Bama, LSU, and Auburn fits over the years. Even Saban said he admires Nutt more than any other coach and said that he thinks Nutt gets more out his players than anyone.
We’ve beaten Ole Miss 4 straight by 4,3,3,3 pts each time and every game has come down to the last minute and 2 of those games came down to the final play. They are just itching to get at us. If Ole Miss is ever going to win the division this is their year to do it by God.
LSU schedule just too tough. They play UF and UGA in Athens while Ole Miss and Bama avoid both. LSU also plays Ole Miss and Bama on the road. Schedule does them in even if they are better than Bama or Ole Miss.
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH! Sorry. Just couldn’t resist stealing your calling card this once.
Tide Rising
July 8th, 2009
4:31 pm
Rebel Rouser,
We could possibly lose to Va Tech but I doubt we get “spanked”. We could possibly lose to Ole Miss and LSU even but Arky? Extremely doubtful.
Also doubtful that we lose 5 games this year. If you hate Bama then that’s fine. It is what it is. But I think your hatred of Bama is kind of blinding you because you may find a lot of people thinking we drop 2-3 games but you won’t find many saying we drop 5 games.
Fools Gold
July 8th, 2009
4:31 pm
Lindys Sport magazine rated coaches of the decade and interesting enough UGAs CMR was rated #10. But before you mutt fans start thumping your chest, CMR was rated behind MR. PJ who was rated at #9. CMR has a lot of work to do because Meyer,Saban and Miles are ranked ahead at # 2,7 and 8 respectively. Now even Georgia Yechs coach is getting more respect than CMR. Pete Carroll was rated #1, Stoops #3,Tressell # 4, Mack Brown # 5 and Frank Beamer #5. The top cassistant coaches that were rated include Chavis, Monte kiffin,Charlie Strong and of course Will Muschamp to name a few. No mention of clueless Willie or Boo Boo.
Fools Gold
July 8th, 2009
4:36 pm
Correction: Frank Beamer was rated # 6 repectivley…
Fools Gold
July 8th, 2009
4:37 pm
opps respectively….
DawginLex
July 8th, 2009
4:42 pm
No Bama fan here but Bama will beat the tar out of VT. VT is fool’s gold. Always rated too high and always fall flat. Please don’t brag about beating Cincy in the BCS last year either……………….
Huh?
July 8th, 2009
4:46 pm
Over three hours ago this question was posed to any Techie with enough balls to answer it:
“When was the last time Tech won a bowl game that matters?”
Not surprisingly, this question remains unanswered. What’s the matter Techies, cat got your tongue? You sure have alot to say about other teams and conferences, but rarely want to answer straightforward questions about your own team. This “Pac 10 Homer” clown is clearly a Techie. Same with “Fools Gold”, clearly a Techie running his mouth about UGA. I invite these big mouthed Techies to answer the the aforementioned question. I don’t think they have the balls. Typical coward Techies.
Scorekeeper
July 8th, 2009
5:06 pm
Huh?
A very valid question Looks like you got em there. I’m not a tech basher but I would like to know just out of curiosity when was the last bcs bowl or big time bowl tech went to, Sugar, Orange, Rose, Fiesta, even the Cotton back in the day when the Cotton held the same relevance as the other 3 or 4 big bowls. When was it? Do you know or are you just asking rehetorically?
macrotech
July 8th, 2009
5:12 pm
Huh?, 1990…got us a share of the National Championship. I guess, 1980 would be the last ’significant’ bowl game they won…. your point?
macrotech
July 8th, 2009
5:12 pm
‘they’ being the pups
Chapel Bell
July 8th, 2009
5:18 pm
Hey macrotech……”incoming”!!!!
Scorekeeper
July 8th, 2009
5:21 pm
macrotech,
What bowl game was it that they played and beat Nebraska that year? Not flaming. Just curious if it was a major bowl game or a 2nd tier game like the tangerine bowl or whatever. I thought it was the orange bowl but I could be mistaken.
Huh?
July 8th, 2009
5:22 pm
Scorekeeper, try the 1967 Orange Bowl, which they of course lost because they are Georgia Tech. Since then the best bowls they have been to is a Citrus Bowl nineteen freaking years ago and a couple of Gator Bowls. That’s it. Historically, its been mostly bowls of the Carquest, Emerald, and Blue Turf varieties for the Techies. Georgia Tech football is Exhibit “A” as to why there are too many damn bowl games. To find the last major bowl that they actually WON you’ve got to go all the way back to a 1956 sugar bowl win over Pittsburgh!!! Isn’t that the most laughably pathetic thing you have ever seen?
Huh?
July 8th, 2009
5:28 pm
1990 was the Citrus Bowl. That is not a major bowl game. Nebraska wasn’t even a top 10 team when Tech played them and barely cracked the top 25 after the bowls. If this is the shining moment in Georgia Tech’s bowl history please excuse me if I am laughing even louder than I was before at what a joke Georgia Tech football is. Good day.
Fools Gold
July 8th, 2009
5:42 pm
huhs deductive reasoning is flawed by suggesting that I am a Tech fan. All I did was point out a few facts by what was stated in a magazine with an added oppinon and the dude goes ballistic about a non topic on a last bowl win for Tech. This guy huh needs more kool aid huh!
rainman
July 8th, 2009
5:45 pm
Just an update — the Braves move ahead 4 to 1 in the top of the ninth against the Cubbies.
My home equity is not what it was, but I will ‘bet the house’ that Tech whips UGA’s a$$ & finishes higher in the polls (just like last year).
To all UGA fans
July 8th, 2009
5:46 pm
You are not the SEC. Florida and LSU have won those MNCs, not the SEC. How about trumpeting your own success, instead of riding the coattails of two great programs.
rainman
July 8th, 2009
5:47 pm
Barnhart, I know you’re an SEC man, but at least try to be somewhat objective.
rainman
July 8th, 2009
5:50 pm
Sorriano is the man!!
Tide Rising
July 8th, 2009
5:50 pm
I moved from ATL to Miami years back and went to the carquest bowl to pull for Tech against West Virginia. It was actually a pretty exciting and high scoring game. Had a great time.
I hold the dubious distinction of being the only man I know of to piss off 10,000 Grizzly Adams look alike mountaineer fans at the same time. I was on the bottom row of the upper deck looking down at all the wvu fans and I kept yelling “go cavaliers” cause I was drunk. All the various grizzly adams look alikes around and below me kept yelling “its the mountaineers’. I would politely smile, belch, then yell back “Yes, that’s right. Go cavaliers” just to piss them all off. Sooner or later the multitudes eventually realized I was just needling them. Took awhile but they eventually figured it out. Had a good time and obviously drank a lot of beer.
I will say though that Tech is a much smaller school and that they do have a component of foreigners and out of staters who don’t really take that much of an interest in football and hence I don’t think Tech will ever have a huge following the way UGA does. That’s probably the main reason Tech doesn’t get invites to big bowls even if they post 10 wins or more. A couple of years ago when Wake won the ACC the orange bowl was trying to figure out a way of backing out of their contract with the ACC because of the small draw of Wake and poor tv ratings and ticket sales for the game. I think its a shame when deserving teams get left out of major bowls just because they don’t have the fan base of a large state U. but I guess it is what it is.
macrotech
July 8th, 2009
5:52 pm
Huh?, your question of playing in a bowl game that mattered was answered…. we won ours in 1990 and it mattered enough to get us a share of the National Championship. Your little leg humpers won their last bowl game that mattered in 1980….. for an ‘elite’ team, THIS is pathetic! Chapel Bell, thanks for the heads up, but these turd eaters are shooting blanks.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2009
6:06 pm
Sugar Bowl 1981, 1982 ended 3rd and 2nd in the country
cotton Bowl 1983 ended 3rd in the country
Sugar Bowl 2002 ended 3rd in the country
Sugar Bowl 2005 ended 7th in the country
Sugar Bowl 2007 ended 2nd in the country
Other New years Day bowl games not even included on the list. GT could only dream of a resume like that.
Fools Gold
July 8th, 2009
6:12 pm
DawginLex……. Does that mean that UGA is perennially a 2nd or 3rd rate team? Cant win the Big Ones?
GT
July 8th, 2009
6:13 pm
They pushed Georgia and Ohio State till they had cramps, now it’s Florida, and Texas. Wouldn’t want to be Florida or Texas, you got to think when the smoke clears these magazines are no more than front runners selling copy.
macrotech
July 8th, 2009
6:17 pm
DawginLex, if you’re not talking national championships…..then it doesn’t matter! WHO is ok with being the ‘first loser’?! You can keep your ‘resume’, thanks.
DawginLex
July 8th, 2009
6:26 pm
Tech wants to be able to have any kind of a list that doesn’t include blue turf smurf bowls. It is easy to say you don’t want it if you know you didn’t have it and you know you can’t get it.
Kinda like the guy that dates the good looking girl. You can say you don’t want to but it’s only because you know you can’t get it. At least we have been in the BCS ehich puts us in the conversation. Tech is annually ignored and outside the room, much less in the conversation.
Tide Rising
July 8th, 2009
6:27 pm
DawginLex,
That 83 Cotton Bowl game against Texas was one of the best games I’ve ever seen. That was a titanic defensive struggle. Not to many dawg fans that probably even know the name John Lastinger the qb running the option for the deciding td for Georgia. But he got it done that day
macrotech
July 8th, 2009
6:34 pm
DawginLex, thank you for your thoughts on what Tech wants, but, seriously?! What’s the point of being a part of the conversation if you NEVER win the national championship? THOSE are the bowls that matter…if we can add another one to our collection by winning on the smurf turf….then so be it! Steak is steak, whether it’s served on a silver platter or a paper plate!
DawginLex
July 8th, 2009
6:35 pm
the 1/1/84 game was great. Texas was undefeated and possessed the best defense in CFB. They had an end named Tony DeGrate. Guy McIntyre plowed him on the winning TD by Lastinger.
The next morning, Gary McKee got on the radio and said the time is 7:30 but in Texas it is still 10 to 9. A bunch of Texas folks started calling and complaining that McIntyre was holding. Guy obviously could play a little bit as he won several rings blocking for a kid named Montana.
Top Dawg
July 8th, 2009
6:38 pm
Dawgs vs. Longhorns in the BCS Game
DawginLex
July 8th, 2009
6:41 pm
Blue smurf turf=blow up doll/Phyllis diller
New Year’s Day games=Eva Longoria
BCS games=Jessica alba
See the difference macro?
Tell the Facts
July 8th, 2009
7:02 pm
Same old pre-season BS, what about Utah? Did not they make Bama’s rear crimson all over?
This “look out for Ohio State & Oklahoma” crap is really getting old.
Paul Finebaum
July 8th, 2009
7:50 pm
I am a total hack. I need to quit radio so I can become the official president of the Sons of Saban. I spew rumor like it is fact while adding nothing new or substancial. I lie and you can always tell because my lips are moving. I am a total scumbag.
papa joe paterno84
July 8th, 2009
7:52 pm
Looks like my record is real safe for a long time.
macrotech
July 8th, 2009
8:01 pm
Lex Dawg, ‘best man’ at the wedding…. YOU’RE not getting the prize! See the difference?!
Tide Rising
July 8th, 2009
8:05 pm
DawginLex,
That’s too funny about the time being 10to9. McIntyre wasn’t just a great dawg but I think he yeah he had a helluva pro career also. Not sure but I do remember it seems like he was allpro a lot.
Tell the truth,
Utah left us embarrassed with crimson faces but last year is last year. Every team and every year is different. Utah had a great senior class. They will probably drop off a little but not real far. They’ve been a steady winner since Urban Meyer was there.
Paul Finebaum,
You thought the sons of Saban would want you? Some people thing he is pro Bama for whatever reason but he’s probably more hated in Alabama than Phil Fulmer. Don’t nobody get under the skin of Bama fans the way he does. He’s just an equal opportunity rabble rouser and rumor mongerer.
Miles
July 8th, 2009
8:14 pm
Florida is the team to beat…no doubt about it.
Trip
July 8th, 2009
8:35 pm
A train is about to leave the station Labor Day wekend and it is PAUL JOHNSON”S train!!!
Tickle Pile
July 8th, 2009
9:19 pm
GT gets it: good post and closer to answering Tony’s question. macrotech does not get it; too busy talking about best men eating steak on a paper plate. the question was about significant Tech BCS bowl wins not finishing second best. Dipsh*t.