Can Saban manage expectations at Alabama?
Tuscaloosa, Ala.—To Alabama football fans, it was a disaster. To the Alabama football players, it was an anti-climatic and desperately disappointing way to end a season. For Nick Saban, however, it was a teachable moment.
It was the 31-17 loss to Utah in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2. Less than a month before Alabama had been 12-0, ranked No. 1, and in position to win its 13th national championship. After losing to Florida (31-20), the eventual national champion, in one of the best SEC championship games ever played, Alabama was less than inspired to be playing in the Sugar Bowl. Utah, however, was very excited about being there and their play on the field reflected that.
After the game, Saban had a stern lesson for his players.
“I told them it (the loss) showed what we can do when we are focused and play together. We did that 13 times last season. We didn’t beat Florida but it was a great game and we were certainly in a position to win it,” Saban said when I met with him in his office on Thursday. “But it also showed what would happen if we did lose focus and weren’t mentally ready to play at a high level. Utah was a good team and we did not play at the level we had in those other 13 games.”
Alabama lost its best offensive lineman, left tackle Andre Smith, who was suspended before the Sugar Bowl. Saban said the loss of Smith, while important, has been overstated when analyzing the loss to Utah.
“It shouldn’t have affected the way the other 21 guys played,” he said.
Here’s the reality. Alabama was a very good football team in 2008 that got the most out of its talent. But this wasn’t Alabama of 1992 with Eric Curry, John Copeland, George Teague and a ton of great, great players. When Alabama of 2008 could stick to its power running game behind that great offensive line and play with passion on defense, it could beat anybody and did for 12 straight weeks. But Florida and Utah were able to spread out the defense and all but neutralize NT Terrence Cody.
So Saban has spent a good part of his spring lecturing to his players about managing expectations based on past performance.
“We seem to have an attitude around here that we deserve some level of success based on what we did the year before,” said Saban. “Those kinds of expectations can be destructive. At this level of football nothing is guaranteed. You only get what you are willing to work for.”
Saban is also taking this message of managing expectations to the Alabama booster clubs he will visit this spring. After coming so close last season, a lot fans believe that in 2009 Alabama will take the next logical step and contend for the national championship. But rarely does the building curve of a football program go straight up. It seems he has been in Alabama forever but in reality, this is the third year under Saban.
“I’ve told them that we want to have standards but if the standard is up here (at 12-0) do people lose interest if we don’t meet that standard? We have the best fans in the word but that kind of attitude can be very destructive,” he said.
Is Saban trying to preemptively manage expectations for his 2009 team? Of course he is. Alabama will be in everybody’s preseason Top 10 based on last season’s 12-0 start and the fact that nine starters return on defense. The schedule is set up for success. After opening the season in Atlanta against ACC champ Virginia Tech, the non-conference schedule is FIU, North Texas, and Tennessee-Chattanooga. Georgia goes off the schedule and South Carolina comes on. The LSU game is in Tuscaloosa. The toughest road trip is to Ole Miss on Oct. 10.
But Saban can see the potential land mines every day at practice: Alabama has to replace three new starters on the offensive line, including the Outland Trophy winner (Andre Smith) and center Antoine Caldwell, a great warrior had 49 career starts. There will be a new quarterback in Greg McElroy, a smart kid who will do the right thing but won’t overwhelm anybody with his talent. The defense has two of the best linebackers on the planet (Rolando McClain and Dont’a Hightower) but is dangerously thin at the position after that. They don’t have a great pass rusher unless they take Hightower from his linebacker position from time to time. There is no way to replace the intangibles that FS Rashad Johnson brought to the defense.
Will Saban be successful in managing the expectations of his fans for 2009? Not a chance. That genie never stays in the bottle for very long.
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155 comments Add your comment
Jacket Attack
April 10th, 2009
8:00 am
Robot Roll Call!
C3PO
On the Flats
April 10th, 2009
8:01 am
Robot Roll Call!
7-Zark-7
Ramblin' Gamblin'
April 10th, 2009
8:04 am
I love it! Robot Roll Call!
RoboCop
RAMBLE ON!
April 10th, 2009
8:06 am
Sounds a bit nerdy, but… Robot Roll Call!
Josh Nesbitt
By the way, no way Nick manages that expectation level. The Alabama fan base is lunatic material. What evidence? Read this message board later today.
On the Flats
April 10th, 2009
8:10 am
Robot Roll Call!
R2D2
Robbie the Robot
HAL
Jacket Attack
April 10th, 2009
8:16 am
Robot Roll Call!
Fembots!
North Ave Jacket
April 10th, 2009
8:17 am
First time poster! Robot Roll Call!
T-800 (the first Terminator)
GeoffDawg
April 10th, 2009
8:18 am
A “bit” nerdy? This does nothing to mitigate your stereotype.
lakerat
April 10th, 2009
8:18 am
Robot Roll Call – the one on Lost in Space – did it have a name? Sorry, I am not a Techie, but I am sure someone there will know!
Re: aL expectations – no way to manage those expectations. Saban was 7-6 the first year with a loss to some D2 Team from LA, a loss at home no less. Then they get to 12-0 and lose 2 consecutive games – one to a Mountain West team.
There is no room for error this year – he will take the money and run after next year – it will be interesting to see if St. Nick or Pope Urban gets the call from ND – my guess is that the first one to say yes to the $5mil a year will be the one who gets the job!
GeoffDawg
April 10th, 2009
8:20 am
This truly is the meek inheiriting the Earth.
On the Flats
April 10th, 2009
8:20 am
Robot Roll Call!
The Iron Giant
Wall-E
Gort
lakerat
April 10th, 2009
8:21 am
Also, the robot housekeeper on the Jetsons (yes, I know I am old)!
GeoffDawg
April 10th, 2009
8:23 am
Regarding bama – As we all saw with Georgia last year, you can never be too deep at any key positions. Front line talent is all well and good but it’s a long season and injuries and fatigue will usually catch up with you. It’s basically the South Carolina syndrome where they play hard the first part of the season but always flame out towards the end. Bama better hope that their linebacking unit stays intact and that they develop some solid starters on the o-line.
Atlanta Gator
April 10th, 2009
8:25 am
Good grief. This column is about Alabama football prospects in 2009. What are all the bizarre Georgia Tech comments about?
On the Flats
April 10th, 2009
8:25 am
Robot Roll Call!
The Lost in Space robot is Robot B-9. But they mostly just called him Robot.
Twiki (Buck Rodgers!)
As to the topic, losing John Parker Wilson will do more damage to that team than its fan base expects. No way they replace that. Alabama battles this year in a lot of 14 – 13 style games. And losses at least 3, probably 4 or 5.
LSWho?
April 10th, 2009
8:32 am
Good post Tony & great point about Bama’s D against florida & Utah. Cody has shown up this spring at 354 & is much quicker & faster. Fanney & Davis will step up the pass rush. With only one loss on the DL from last year’s 3 deep & an experienced LB corps & secondary, the Tide’s D should be much better. OL is the big question, but look for Carpenter to step in at LT. I believe McElroy will surprise. SEC West will be tough, RTR
Jeremy
April 10th, 2009
8:37 am
The mentioning of 12 National Titles brings up a point that I have long thought about regarding the number of NC’s schools claim. This is not meant to bash Bama, because they are by no means the only school that advertises inflated national title numbers.
I would love it if someone would go through the history of college football and make a definitive non-biased list of national champions and cleanup the large number of polls (Williamson, etc.) that used to exist.
To give an example Alabama claims 1941 as one of their titles. This was a year in which I believe the Tide lost 3 games (including Vanderbilt), finished 3rd in the SEC, and 20th in the AP poll. Yet, a new poll came out many years later and retroactively called Alabama National Champs for that year.
Many schools claim titles in years long ago that they did not win the coaches or AP polls. Two local examples are UGA claiming 1942, and Georgia Tech claiming 1952. The two AP/UPI champions for those years were Ohio State and Michigan State respectively.
Not a big deal, but I would love to see the article if it were written.
On the Flats
April 10th, 2009
8:39 am
Robot Roll Call!
ET
Quark-45
Atlanta Gator
April 10th, 2009
8:39 am
Back to today’s column topic . . . Alabama football’s prospects for the 2009 season.
Tony’s theme of managing fan expectations is going to be the central theme of Nick Saban’s third season in Tuscaloosa. Unless the Tide greatly exceeds rational predictions for the coming season, the Tide will be playing for the future, with a lot of young first-time starters, and even more talent in the recruiting pipeline. With a little luck and another below-par season by LSU, Alabama could back into an SEC West Division championship, but I expect that their losses to graduation and early NFL departures make that no better than a 50-50 proposition. The SEC West is likely to be a dogfight among Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss, with Arkansas making significant progress, and even Auburn and Mississippi State are likely to win an upset or two. IMHO, no team is likely to finish undefeated in the West division.
Hopefully, smart Bama fans will be patient enough to let the 2009 season play out. The Tide is not likely to achieve the same level of success as 2008, but the future looks very, very bright for Alabama football beyond 2009.
UF N Good
April 10th, 2009
8:49 am
I’ll play. Gators know a thing or two about bots and drinking.
Robot Roll Call!
Bender
GeoffDawg
April 10th, 2009
8:50 am
Jeremy – I agree that NT numbers are usually ambiguous and inflated by respective schools but I don’t see how anyone could reasonably go back and arbitrarily decide that one poll’s claim is worth more than another poll’s claim. Obviously, there are exceptions like the bama one you alluded to but I don’t think you can just look at who the AP picked in any given year either and run with it. Even though some of the polling services are now defunct doesn’t mean they weren’t just as legitimate as the AP or UPI back in the day. You also have to deal with the tremendous bias that some schools enjoyed from certain polls. From an era when a program like Notre Dame’s received all the national attention, polls are always going to give them the advantage with everything else being equal. You still see that today with teams like Utah having no valid shot at playing in the championship game because the perception is that they’re not part of the college football elite. That’s a perception I happen to agree with but the possibility still exists that they could be just as good as anyone. If we ever do get to a playoff system, we should probably just starting listing titles separately as Before Playoff (BP) and After Playoff (AP) because you’ll never in a million years get consensus on who owns what title dating back to before the modern era.
Percy Harvey
April 10th, 2009
8:57 am
techies, you be showin yo ignorance.
go gator.
On the Flats
April 10th, 2009
9:04 am
Robot Roll Call! Let’s keep it going!
Data (Star Trek)
GeoffDawg, good point on the BP/AP distinction. I could see that happening. I’m guessing that in 25 years, Auburn will claim a NT the year they went undefeated (2003, 2004?) and who could blame them?
Atlanta Jackets
April 10th, 2009
9:06 am
Percy, shut the pie hole please.
Robot Roll Call!
Optimus Prime
Atlanta Gator
April 10th, 2009
9:08 am
Jeremy—-On occasion, I have gently tweaked our Alabama blogger friends about the 12* national football championships that their athletic department claims. Several of those “championships” represent a minority of all of the final polls that were taken in the given years, and in several instances, represent a single poll from among 15 or more. By any reasonable standard, those are not “consensus” national championships.
To their credit, Notre Dame and Georgia (and many other top football schools) only claim consensus titles for seasons in which their team received the number one ranking from at least a majority of the polls in the early, pre-AP poll years, or, later, in those seasons in which they were declared number one by the AP and/or Coaches Poll. Notre Dame claims 11 consensus national championships, but could claim NINETEEN by the same standard that the Alabama athletic department uses. UGA’s athletic department claims two consensus national championships, but could claim FIVE by acknowledging any single poll rating their team number one.
Alabama has a great football history, but it’s a shame that the school’s athletic department feels the need to pad their record. I’m not sure why they feel compelled to do it, but IMO, Bama should simply emphasize their 21 SEC championships, shared or outright, every one of which was legitimately won on the field and not invented by some rinky-dink pollster.
For the record, Tennessee has the second most SEC championships with 13, making Bama’s total of 21 look damn impressive.
BTW, earlier this week, another Mr. CFB blogger recounted at length the various issues with several of the 12 championships claimed by the Alabama athletic department. And, yes, the Georgia Tech athletic department is guilty of padding their national championship claims, too.
Nachos
April 10th, 2009
9:17 am
No mention of your beloved dawwwgs? Tony Jabroni whats up with that ????
emptydodd
April 10th, 2009
9:20 am
Robot Roll Call!
That chick from Small Wonder!
Optimus Prime
April 10th, 2009
9:26 am
Robot Roll Call!
Atlanta Jackets
Anonymous
April 10th, 2009
9:26 am
Question:
Are Atlanta Jackets, On the Flats, RAMBLE ON!!, Jacket Attack, Ramblin’ Gamblin’ and North Ave Jacket all the same person?
Could 6 actual alumni of the same school really share the same goofy sense of humor?
Saint Nick
April 10th, 2009
9:29 am
Imagine that, Hey trekkies THIS is a bama blog!!! Remember i had no right commenting on a blog about the trekkies yesterday!!!!! Crawl back to your drafting tables and leave this blog to SEC football fans!!!!
buckblue
April 10th, 2009
9:31 am
Nick is already start to burn out the coaches…Thompson left in a fizzy….Steele left after yelling at nick during the Utah beat down…players are playing for da $$$. He will either burn everyone out or get on probation before they ever win the SEC.
Otto
April 10th, 2009
9:34 am
Jeremy,
1925 National Championship- Alabama claims they share this one with Dartmouth. Who awarded the NC? Houlgate and Helms. Houlgate started his system in 1927. So Bama won their 1925 NC using a formula that didn’t exist until 1927? Helms Athletic Foundation started in 1941. Another incredible retroactive NC.
The Associated Press Poll has been active since 1936. The AP took their final poll prior to bowl games from 1936 – 1964 and in 1966 and 1967. They took their final poll after the bowl games in 1965 and from 1968 – Current.
1926 National Championship- Alabama claims they share this one with 3 other teams with equal or better records! Once again it is the Helms Athletic Foundation in 1941 that awards it!
1930 National Championship- The Davis poll says that Bama tied Notre Dame for NC this year. This was the only one to award it to Bama. Notre Dame was named NC in 6 polls! Parke Davis is another retroactive system! He (an individual, not an organization) did his in 1933!
1934 National Championship- Alabama says they share this with two other teams. The awarders are Dunkel, Williamson, and Football Thesaurus. Dunkel was an individual who came up with his own system. Williamson was a geologist who came up with his own system. Football Thesaurus first appeared in 1946!
1941 National Championship- This is a complete joke. The AP ranked Alabama 20th in the nation with 14 teams with better records in the top 20. Once again it is the Football Thesaurus that retroactively awards it. Alabama finished 3rd in the SEC that year. Mississippi State won the SEC title..yet Bama claims a National title!
1961 National Championship- Finally a legitimate NC. .
1964 National Championship- While the AP did award the NC to Bama (10-1-0), Arkansas had the better record, 11-0. Alabama played Texas in their bowl and LOST. The AP final poll was before the bowl.
1965 National Championship- The AP gave this to Bama. That year there were three teams with better records than Bama. Bama 9-1-1, Michigan St 10-1-0, Arkansas 10-1-0, Nebraska 10-1-0.
1973 National Championship- AP puts Bama 4th after their bowl game loss. Bama claims a NC from the UPI poll that was taken before they met Notre Dame in the bowl game and lost. There were 3 teams with better records than Bama that year. The embarrassment of naming Alabama number one caused the UPI to name champions after bowl games. Yet Bammer has no shame in claiming it of course.
1978 National Championship- AP gives this to Alabama(11-1-0) even though USC (12-1-0) had the better record Guess who Alabama lost to that year? USC!!!!!!!!!. UPI gave the NC to USC.
1979 National Championship- Their second legitimate NC. Their first Unanimous NC.
1992 National Championship- Their third legitimate NC. Their second Unanimous NC.
RAMBLE ON!!!
April 10th, 2009
9:35 am
All these “nerdy comments” are from a UGAg poser. Sad, but true.
Erk
April 10th, 2009
9:36 am
It’s impossible to manage the expectations of Bama fans unless you’re the Bear. Wouldn’t Bear’s ghost be a better coach than any living coach today?
Atlanta Gator, good post and good points regarding consensus national championships. We can always count on you to be objective and not obnoxious like most UF fans.
GeoffDawg
April 10th, 2009
9:36 am
On the Flats – given their conference schedule, many people would agree that Auburn got the shaft that year. I don’t know if they would’ve beaten USC but they definitely deserved the opportunity even with the less the impressive OOC schedule. I think you still need some poll to list you number 1 to lay claim to a title which in the BCS era just aren’t as plentiful. Just as Bama did though, maybe some Auburn grad is retroactively creating the “Plainsman Poll” even as we speak.
Atlanta Jackets
April 10th, 2009
9:39 am
Whoever that was, I thought it was hilarous!
Can I add one more?
Voltron
Thanks Otto for reposting that summary. That pretty much ends UA’s claim to 12 titles.
Otto
April 10th, 2009
9:43 am
Granted ‘66 could be argued for Bama. ‘42 and ‘46 are up for debate with UGA. As long as a poll or a 2 team playoff decides the national title there will be debate but I will take the current system over a playoff.
I used to want a 4 team palyoff but it would reward non BCS teams that take an easier schedule to a perfect season. An 8 team playoff would take away from the regular season. Look at Basketbal the regular season is a sleeper and the tournament a snoozer. I am in here every weekday and could not tell you the 2 teams that lost in the final 4 and don’t really care. Take a look at how viewer ratings have declined for March Madness.
Otto
April 10th, 2009
9:47 am
Atl. Jacket you can thank the Aubbie I stole it from. Saban has follow 10 in seasons up by let downs in the past. Bama has alot of turnover but the easiest schedule in the west so I will be interesting to watch. LSU may have found a QB. Ole Miss looks strong. MSU and Auburn on new coach staffs. Arkansas rebuilding or ready?
North Ave Jacket
April 10th, 2009
9:49 am
In 1952, Tech was 12 – 0 and proclaimed as the national title winner by four different services. Four. I think that counts.
Capstone Report » Saban battles sense of entitlement
April 10th, 2009
9:49 am
[...] here that we deserve some level of success based on what we did the year before,” Saban said to Mr. College Football. “Those kinds of expectations can be destructive. At this level of football nothing is [...]
Atlanta Gator
April 10th, 2009
9:51 am
Erk—Thanks for the kind words, but I’m a far more typical Gator than you know. And a big “head but” compliment back at ya.
m
April 10th, 2009
9:56 am
Tony, alabammer did what these pitiful sec teams usually do when they go out of conference to play. They got their arses handed to them by UTAH. Let me pause here to LAUGH MY ARSE OFF.TGAG.
TIde rising
April 10th, 2009
10:06 am
Otto,
You present a 1 sided argument so allow me to retort. While we can quibble over the number of true ncs that Bama owns your assertion that the winningest team over the last 100 years of football only has 3 legit ncs is absurd. That’s right. Look it up. Over the last 100 years Bama leads the nation in wins with 754. ND is 2nd with 751. We also lead the nation in bowl appearances and victories, etc. but for now lets just stick with the idea that the winningest team in football only has 3 legit titles is ludicrous.
The truth is that although the NCAA official media guide once credited us with 17 the real number is somewhere between 6-7 on the very low end to 17 on the extreme high end when using the NCAA media guide and any poll. Most serious football people go with 7-9.
And you leave out all the ncs Bama got robbed of. 1966 and 1976 stand out in particular and are jsut 2 years where any reasonable, objective person can see we got jobbed. The prejudices against the South, especially during 1966 and the whole 60s and 70s didn’t help us either. The bottom line is that it all averages out. Funny that you should leave out years where we legitimately were the best but were denied anyway. How come that doesn’t figure into your math?
Dr. Phil
April 10th, 2009
10:15 am
Where have I heard expectations based on last year’s performance? Could it have been from Richt? It seems that Richt and his coaches got pay raises based on expectations rather than a rather dismal performance. That’s a little like bank CEO bonuses.
GeoffDawg
April 10th, 2009
10:17 am
Jeremy – Exhibit 1: Tide Rising vs. Otto. Never in a million years will you get consensus on who owns titles. Especially before the modern era.
Eric
April 10th, 2009
10:18 am
Saban, annoying.
Otto
April 10th, 2009
10:20 am
Tide rising in my next post I said ‘66 could be argued for Bama. Nobody can deny the ‘66 title was influenced by factors off the field and whatever you think of the Bear the ‘70 game against USC was one of the best political moves in history.
I do give you credit the real number is most likely 6 or 7.
Atlanta Gator
April 10th, 2009
10:21 am
North Ave Jacket—-The 1952 consensus championship belongs to undefeated Michigan State, who received the number one ranking in the final AP and UPI Coaches polls, as well as 11 of the 16 number one final poll rankings. Georgia Tech actually was ranked number one by 5 of the 16 polls.
Based on receiving a number ranking from the final polls, Tech can legitimately claim consensus nation titles in 1917 and 1928, and a share of a split title in 1990 (UPI title shared with AP champ Colorado). Undefeated Oklahoma were the consensus champions in 1956 (AP & UPI) when Tech received 2 of 17 number one rankings.
Best Tech claims: 2 consensus championships (1917 & 1928), and one split championship (1990).
GeoffDawg
April 10th, 2009
10:23 am
I’ve never said this before but that Gator’s got a good point.
Saint Nick
April 10th, 2009
10:25 am
Hey buck,
Thompson was an idiot…Steele left of his own will. Saban is hard to work for BUT he is a top 3 coach. Work for Saban for 3 years and move on to a better position. Bama doesn’t have to pay for players when Saban is head coach, he puts players in the NFL. Probation?????Please, Bama has to tread very lightly as it is because of the Dubose fiasco in Memphis with Logan Young. Glad to see that USC is finally getting exposed though(took long enough). If that was an SEC team, they would have already have been slammed!!!RTR!!!!!!