Hawks fans: Early New Year resolutions

Atlanta will leave 2010 with a chance at padding that 8-7 road record, what with three of their year-ending four games being played away from the Highlight Factory. Of course, there is always the chance that they go in the other direction, considering that New Orleans, Milwaukee, and Oklahoma City are a combined 30 and 14 in their home arenas. Which will it be for the Hawks, break even, surge ahead, or fall behind?

 

Catching Up With the Joneses (or rather, the Hornets)

A bit of a buzz (yes, pun intended) was made earlier in the season when the Hornets jumped out to a 6-0 record to start the season. Alongside the Hornets were the upstart Atlanta Hawks, who were no stranger to quick early season starts. The fact is, experts, fans, and pundits alike were largely writing the Atlanta fast start off due to schedule, while proclaiming the Hornets a sure-fire playoff team. Twenty-nine games later (for the Hawks it’s 31 games later), it’s a bit of a different story.

Both teams are all but guaranteed to be good enough to make the playoffs, but there are some differences. The Hornets have proven to be better when playing at home (12-3), than the Hawks (11-5). Meanwhile, Atlanta has fared better on the road (8-7), than has New Orleans (5-9). When it comes to division play, Atlanta once again enjoys a better record (5-2), than New Orleans (3-3) does. Lastly, they are exact opposites in their last 10 games, as the Hawks have gone 6-4, while the Hornets have gone 4-6. So what of it? Are the Hawks every bit as legit as the Hornets, or are they better? Seems like it would hardly matter since the two teams are not from the same conference, and therefore not rivals of any kind. All the same, the Hawks kick off the last of their December campaign tonight against a Hornets squad that is pretty good at home. Homecourt advantage might be one of the largest deciding factors, seeing as how both teams have lost games to inferior opponents.

The Skinny

As mentioned above, earning a win in New Orleans has proven to be quite difficult this season. Only three teams have done it, through either sheer firepower (New York, Oklahoma City), or supreme discipline and execution (San Antonio). The Hawks are capable of delivering all three, but will they?

Everything in New Orleans starts with Chris Paul, as we all know. The all-star point guard can score with the best of them, but he hasn’t had to so far this season. Alongside his seemingly pedestrian 16 ppg, Paul drops nearly 10 dimes a game, and rebounds (4.4 per game) at a rate unheard of amongst point guards, especially those who hardly stand six feet tall. The jaw-dropping stat that goes unnoticed, however, is his 2.8 steals per game. Paul’s offensive capabilities are plenty scary enough, but perhaps more bothersome are those steals. The Hawks haven’t been particularly good at taking care of the ball lately. But Paul isn’t the only one. Teammates David West (1.14) and Trevor Ariza (1.48) are known to haunt a passing lane or two as well. Turnovers will be a key stat in this game, mark it down.

Rebounding continues to be an issue for the Hawks, and it will be against New Orleans. Emeka Okafor isn’t better than Al Horford on this front, and David West isn’t better than Josh Smith. But if either Atlanta low post player brings less than his A game, his opponent will eat him up. Likewise offensively, where Josh and Al (32.5 ppg combined) are better than Emeka and David (29.5 ppg combined) on paper. Both teams need good games out of their respective starting center and power forward.

Star Matchup

Joe Johnson vs Chris Paul, of course. Johnson is on the mend, and Chris Paul knows how that is.

Paul is shooting a pretty darn good 49% from the field and has proven that he is still one of the top players at his position. He figures to have the advantage in backcourt matchups, facing the League’s best 3 point shooter in Mike Bibby, but having the speed edge there. Could backup point guard Jeff Teague help slow Paul down?

Joe Johnson continues to struggle with his shot (40.4% from the field), but does not look hamstrung at all out there. Johnson rebounds quite well, and is quite a playmaker from the 2-guard position. The Hornets won’t have an easy time of it with Johnson, who can spark his team with 5 or 6+ rebounds and upwards of 7 or 8 assists on any given night. Moreover, he is bigger and stronger than most shooting guards, which would include New Orleans guard Marco Belinelli. Johnson just may hit his stride in this game as he overpowers Belinelli on one end, then suffocates him on the other.

Under The Radar Matchup

Marvin Williams vs Trevor Ariza. Here is a tale of guys who are basically averaging 10 and 5 for the respective teams at the small forward position. Ariza is struggling mightily from the field (36% shooting), while Williams is actually hitting a career high (48%). Both are underwhelming from 3 point range this season, but I’ll take Marvin’s stroke any day over Ariza’s and that isn’t even a product of homer-ism. Marvin is simply better. Looking at the stat column, Marvin also commits fewer fouls and turnovers at a significant rate. Who’s the better defender? Not easy to say, as both can bother an opponent into a rough shooting game, and Ariza has the edge on paper when it comes to steals. But who cares? The bottom line is, there could very well be a stalemate at other positions, and it may come down to either bench play, or the play of these two starting small forwards. If there is to be an offensive explosion….my money is on Marvin Williams. Why? Easy. Just look at the month of December.

In 12 games, Ariza has had double figure scoring five times. By comparison, Williams has notched double figure in scoring in 8 of his 13 December games. Not only that, but Ariza has hit on 50% of his field goal attempts just twice in that span, while Williams has done so seven times while shooting just a hair under 50% on two other occasions. Suffice it to say, this is a game that the Hornets may need Ariza to step it up, while the Hawks will need Williams to maintain his good play of late.

NEW YEAR’S RESOLUTIONS!!!

Okay, so it’s a bit early for resolutions, what with a whole five-and-a-half days remaining in 2010, but why not come up with some ideas for our very own Atlanta Hawks? Name anything you want, within reason or without (did I just open up a can of insane trade ideas, or what?). Here are a couple/few of my own:

1. Larry Drew – stop with the two foul paranoia. If Al Horford gets two early fouls and he looks totally overmatched or is having some other set of fundamental issues, then fine…take him out. Otherwise, let the guy play! Horford is now the team’s second leading scorer by a frog’s hair, and like anybody else, his game requires some rhythm. The Hawks can’t even play the same way when he’s not in the game, as no other big man is as automatic from 18 feet as Al, and that includes the much-improved Josh Smith. Not only that, but his man-up defense and rebounding is missing, which can also hurt the team. Take it easy with those long stretches of bench time, Larry.

2. Jeff Teague, please bring this fire every game. We fans would just LOVE to get used to seeing you on the attack every game, and we won’t even complain about the fact that your jumper is in need of restoration. Speed can’t be taught, and the combination of that and aggression, along with your low-turnover style of play, and your willingness to pass the ball to a big man right where he needs it….it’s all gravy, baby. Besides, EVERYBODY loves a point guard who will dunk it every chance he’s given.

3. Josh Smith – three things for ya, buddy. First, stop letting your attitude affect your play. The refs still don’t like you as much as you think they should. But the real issue is that you’re incapable of playing neutral or being a non-factor (unless of course, you’re not in the game at all). When you play, you either affect the game positively, or negatively. There is no middle ground. Keep your head up. That’s your role and niche as a team captain, because this team is so good when you’re good, and it’s so hard to win when you’re bad. Second – rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. New rule for ya – if you can’t get at least 7 boards in a game where you’ve put in 30+ minutes of work, then you need to be scoring, like 20 points or more. And it should be on 50% + shooting, with maybe more than a few trips to the charity stripe. Fact is, you could be snagging boards like Shawn Marion used to do. You should be battling Al for the team lead. Lastly, love what you’ve done with that jumper. One caveat, though: use it to add to your arsenal once you’ve begun abusing the other team down low or getting to the free throw line. Don’t use it to get yourself going, that rarely works all that well for you.

4. Larry – we’re back to you again. Play Jordan Crawford more. Especially while Jamal is out. Chances are, Jamal may have injury issues again later this season, as a bad back tends not to just “go away” during a season, and some guys aren’t as tough as others. Besides, Mo Evans needs to heal as well. What could it hurt? We don’t know if Jamal will remain with us for the rest of the season, so I’m thinking JC2 could use a little seasoning, no? That’s another thing – Jamal isn’t Joe. Joe comes back with a jumper that isn’t back to form, but he gives you so many other things when he’s on the floor. What does Jamal give you when his shot is off?

 

Chime on in, Hawks fans. Feel free to call me on my New Year’s Resolutions “suggestions”, or come up with your own. It’s all good!

213 comments Add your comment

joBjo

December 26th, 2010
1:24 pm

Swingman912

December 26th, 2010
1:37 pm

cosign completely BigRay…no complaints……….CHUUUUUUUUCH

Fundamentals

December 26th, 2010
1:38 pm

We need ZaZa to focus on basketball in 2011? We desperately need that aggressive, physical big to help Al. Shape him up or ship him out.

[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Peter Hjort, D SWEB and others. D SWEB said: http://bit.ly/eHXdMw Atlanta will leave 2010 with a chance at padding that 8-7 road record,… http://bit.ly/iekVWv http://bit.ly/henB8q [...]

NCBravesFan

December 26th, 2010
2:28 pm

5. Rick Sund: please make a trade to bolster the roster, especially if Jamal does not figure into the long term planning in ATL. For my money, I’d like to see the net of the trade be that Teague & JC2 get more playing time, and a player is acquired who can push Marvin and augment depth at the SF position.

Hawks Fan In New Orleans

December 26th, 2010
2:33 pm

Great article. I am ready for my 3rd annual Hawks versus Hornets extravaganza in New Orleans. It should be a great undercard to the Monday night bash at the Georgia Dome tomorrow. I will taunt my Hornet loving friends/colleagues at the NO Arena. Its no rivalry in actuality, but in our minds it is. Drew needs to cut the Woody antics and play JC2 more. Yes Marvin needs to play aggressive against Ariza – Ariza is a defensive beast though so we shall see. CP3 will of course blow by Bibby with ease so Teague must be utilized effectively to contain him.

Astro Joe

December 26th, 2010
2:55 pm

(Beltaed) Merry Christmas to all. I hope those who celebrate the holiday remember the “reason for the season”.

Good stuff, Big Ray. I missed a lot of good commentary material in the last few days. Very happy that the ASG debacle was resolved, although it won’t likely translate into anything tangible on the court. The promise of a new CBA will surely be more impactful than the buyout of Belkin.

As for resolutions, I’d like to see Horford “toughen up” to last year’s standards, I’d like to see Joe regain some of his defensive fire and I’d love to see Sund do some “GMing” during the regular season and not just for about 8-10 weeks of the summer.

Astro Joe

December 26th, 2010
2:56 pm

(Belated) Merry Christmas…. maybe I need a resolution to better spell check my posts. :lol:

J from the A

December 26th, 2010
3:02 pm

M. Williams > T. Ariza?
J. Smith < D. West?

The answer is 'yes' to both, at least according to Hornets247 blog.

As far as my New Year's resolution:
(1) Teague plays aggressive and well
(2) If (1) holds, pull the trigger on a trade involving Jamal for a starting-quality defensive-minded big (Portland would be a good trade partner here).
(3) JJ's shooting touch, especially from beyond the arc, returns
(4) Defeat the elite! [for the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs]

J from the A

December 26th, 2010
3:06 pm

Co-sign Big Ray’s (1) and (2)

My (3) and (4)
(3) If Teague continues to play well and remains aggressive, please pull the trigger on a Jamal for starting-quality big (Portland would be a prime trade partner).
(4) JJ’s shooting touch returns, especially from beyond the arc.

J from the A

December 26th, 2010
3:08 pm

M. Williams > T. Ariza?
J. Smith < D. West?

The answer is 'yes' — at least according to Hornets247 blog.

drmaryb (*_*)

December 26th, 2010
5:29 pm

Blu-Ray
(Clear Image)

Great Commentary! That is a lot to chew on, not much I can add to that.
I do however, look forward to the Ariva and Marvin match-up. Marvin should win that one “Hands-Down”. But, hopefully, Marvin will play with his Hands-Up!

CP3 will be himself, as will Joe. Tonight, we should see some JT0 used more.
If, Josh and Al come to play? The Hawks should win, with some spectacular bal movement and taking care of the ball tonight!

Let’s Go Hawks!

Big Ray

December 26th, 2010
5:33 pm

Astro Joe ,

That’s what we call the eggnog effect, lol.

J from the A ,

Agreed on your #3 and #4!

Hawks fan in New Orleans ,

Keep the faith down in the bayou!

Big Ray

December 26th, 2010
5:34 pm

drmaryb ,

Right on! Now if people can just stop wrecking stuff so I can get home in time to watch this game….

ATL FAN

December 26th, 2010
6:45 pm

LETS GO *cricket* *cricket* hawks…

Astro Joe

December 26th, 2010
7:52 pm

Josh is dying by the long ball tonight. But once Marvin got hot to start the game, Josh was almost assured a less than stellar game, since they very rarely play well simultaneously.

Astro Joe

December 26th, 2010
7:56 pm

No first half love for Teague tonight.

niremetal

December 26th, 2010
8:23 pm

Haven’t needed Teague or Damien yet. CP3 is off and the starters are smoking.

Astro Joe

December 26th, 2010
8:28 pm

niremetal, you make it sound like Teague is a “situational defender”.

niremetal

December 26th, 2010
8:47 pm

Since I’ve neglected to do it the last few games…

Josh’s jumpers watch update:

vs. NJ: 2-6
vs. Orl: 2-7
vs. Cle: 3-7

So far tonight, 1-6.

niremetal

December 26th, 2010
8:49 pm

Astro,

I don’t know what Teague is yet. His best use is against quick PGs. If he’s not needed for that and the team is doing well otherwise, don’t see much of a need for him. He’s been underwhelming outside of a couple games this year.

niremetal

December 26th, 2010
8:50 pm

And FYI – I have zero interest in letting you bait me into one of your “Woody was right and LD sucks” pissing wars, so don’t bother trying.

niremetal

December 26th, 2010
8:55 pm

Woulda been smart to try out Teague in that 3rd quarter, though. :roll:

Astro Joe

December 26th, 2010
8:58 pm

Funny, I have every confidence that you consider the above a preemptive strike, but had I done it, it would have been described as “putting words into my mouth” or some other faux violation that would have led to a personal attack… oh well.

niremetal

December 26th, 2010
9:53 pm

Astro,

Not saying you were. Just was warning you off from trying.

O'Brien

December 26th, 2010
10:28 pm

Maybe its just the frustration talking, but…different director, same actors, and a similar script (especially for certain scenes). No wonder the movie ends the same.

Hawks have 31 points in the second half. And despite Jamal’s 5 turnovers, despite Bibby’s 2-8, despite CP3 and Jack combining for 32 points, Teague did not get any minutes, despite the fact that he played ok in his last 3 games.

And no PT for Damien? And 34 minutes for Jamal his first game back.

And of course, we give up too many offensive rebounding.

5 straight road losses. Will Rick make a move before the deadline? Or will he continue to be in love with this core?

doc

December 26th, 2010
11:08 pm

man, not sure why you guys keep arguing aboutthe virtues of either ld and woody because they both suck because they were hired by the cheap-az ASG is the problem …. MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR, nire. ;-) glad you are bak in action. heh heh

doc

December 27th, 2010
12:11 am

nire, we were discussing jj and prognosis earlier. from the other blog:

Joe said the three-day break helped his elbow. He wore a brace over that time and said he can extend the arm more than before: “I don’t know how much straighter it’s going to get, though.”

not sure i am excited to read this. it doesnt seem a simple clean out fixed the problem that might recur. if he doesnt have an elbow that can straighten he will not have the same mechanics obviously.

O'Brien

December 27th, 2010
1:25 am

From the blog writeup on ajc.com;

“But against good teams we have to be able to follow through on the game plan, especially defensively”. LD .

What does he expect, when Bibby played 41 minutes, Jamal played 34 minutes, and Josh and Al (due to foul trouble) played 28 minutes each.

When will LD and Rick realize that they don’t have the personnel to be a good defensive team?

More from the blog;

“On the road you have to have better shot selection.” LD .

“Smoove was the guiltiest party on the latter. He’s getting jump shot happy again and now they aren’t falling”. MC .

That was the problem with Josh making those shots earlier in the season. Now that they are not falling, he still has the confidence that he can take and make them whenever he wants.

Hawks Fan In New Orleans

December 27th, 2010
6:21 am

This was horrible. Teague not seeing the court and our two biggest defensive liabilities in Bibby and Crawford got all the minutes at the 1 spot. Josh Smith is not David West. No more Smoove-bring back Smash. Sund needs to make a move and make it soon. This was a game that was very winnable if they had gotten more stops in the 2nd half and aggressive/taking it to the rack down the stretch.

Big Ray

December 27th, 2010
7:15 am

I don’t like how that game was coached OR played.

I have to give the New Orleans defense credit, but we have too many weapons for them to be able to shut us down like that. Here were my biggest issues:

1. The two foul rule is simply murder. Al Horford doesn’t play the entire second quarter (unless I missed him), and therefore he is completely out of rhythm when he does get back in the game. By then, the Hornets were playing pretty good defense. Result? Rusty Al + good defense = epic fail. Blame – Larry Drew.

2. I have to admit, I wasn’t overly impressed with Horford when he WAS in the game. Okafor was outplaying him, plain and simple. I’m not calling Horford “The Boss” anymore, until he starts playing like it. On the flip side of the coin, the 2 foul rule isn’t helping things any. Blame – Horford.

3. Josh making jumpers early in the season isn’t the problem. As I recall, several of those contributed to games where we won. Josh shooting them out of rhythm (i.e, BEFORE he has established himself inside), as his first shots of the game, to get himself back into scoring, and out of sequence in general (when he should be driving the ball)…THAT is the problem. The problem is what it’s always been: shot selection. Makes you want to trade his butt, but then we can’t defend the rim. Blame – Josh Smith.

4. I don’t understand the DNPs for Teague and Wilkins. I understand the 34+ minutes for Jamal even less. Jamal stunk it up on offense by leading the team with 5 turnovers. I do recall saying turnovers would be an issue… Anyway, what he did on offense was bad, but his defense was demonstrably worse. Again, 34 minutes?? Why , LD? Andy why DNP Jeff Teague when he would have been better at defending the pick and roll than anybody not named Joe Johnson? Blame – Larry Drew.

5. Did we forget about Marvin? Dude was primed to jump out, and did. He played well. I can’t just credit New Orleans for defending him better, though. I have to discredit the coach and the team for not forcing the issue more, by putting him in position to score more. No, we just went for jumpers and decided to put the ball in Jamal’s hands. Bad move.

Big Ray

December 27th, 2010
7:22 am

O’brien ,

I disagree. If anything, you WANT Smith to be confident in himself. He was making jumpers just fine. I can’t say this enough, though: the guy has to realize how he gets into a rhythm with those shots . He does it by going inside first . Instead, his brain thinks he can make those shots any old time, and he’s using them to start his scoring for the game, or to get himself back into a groove, and it just doesn’t work that way for him because he’s not a shooter by nature. Smith has made the most jumpers when he has scored close to the basket FIRST. But, being as hard-headed as he is, he just won’t see that.

Another reason I disagree about him taking jumpers? Because I feel that this is directly related to his free throw stroke. Notice that his jump shot form and execution improved at the exact same time that his free throw shooting did. I think his ability to make jumpers can help spread the offense, but when he takes them too early in the clock, or too early in the flow of his own game, he throws his own game off. I’m sure somebody is telling him this, but he just isn’t listening. Frustrating, but the jump shot had to become a part of his game sooner or later. He can’t outleap or outquick every single player, and he certainly won’t be able to do it his entire career. Getting him to be smarter with his arsenal is the key, and the greatest source of frustration.

Ray

December 27th, 2010
7:25 am

Yeah I think I’m going to chime in on my new years resolutions.

1. Jeff Teague see’s increased PT on the court even against Good Teams because he’s just as fast as CP3 and some of the other PG’s.

2. In Crunch time the hawks know not to take jumpers take that **** to the hole and get a foul for Pete’s sake.

3. Josh Smith stop with the jump shots don’t get me wrong I’m like Big Ray love that the jump shots are improving and your entire game has increased 10 fold, but man if they aren’t falling you need to be like Blake Griffin taking them to the hole you can muscle your way through any of the those guys any given night we know cause we’ve seen it. Plus you chances of being fouled goes way up man.

4. Larry Drew you need to be held on your word of accountability at the beginning of the season you said people would be rewarded with more PT if they had done well on the court. Well I haven’t seen it so much Jeff Teague never got a chance to see the floor Jordan Crawford hasn’t seen the floor in I don’t know when. LD much as I love your new offense don’t make yourself like Mike Woodson when it comes to substitutions. Because you make it seem like we only have 7 good players like Woody did. It reality we probably have like 11 good one’s and maybe 2 bad ones with 2 being medicore.

5. We got to cut losses with both Mo Evans and Zaza yeah it’s becoming increasingly clear that Jason Collins is better than Zaza. Eventually also JC1 so JC2 can see some PT at SG.

6. Back to LD the minutes man what’s up with Bibby having like 40 while Horford has 28 or less. Plus Jamal having over 34 his first game back in like 5 games. This is why I feel like LD and Woody made Jamal Crawford more of a 5 1/2 man rather than a 6th man. Still though no reason both J-Smoove and Horford should be at 28 mins a piece I could understand Smoove last night cause he had 5 fouls, but damnit free Al-Horford he’s not as foul prone as you might think. This paranoia has to stop cause I think with Al off the floor for a long time hurts us 10x worse.

7. Lastly everyone on this team needs to play with intensity every game that is all.

Big Ray

December 27th, 2010
7:28 am

Astro Joe ,

I have been observing the same thing you have. It’s strange how Josh and Marvin usually don’t have strong games simultaneously. Why do you suppose that is? Of course, the easy answer is that all of these pieces haven’t fit together the greatest to begin with, whether it was physical ability, mental approach, or whatever…

Niremetal ,

Ok, I have to ask. What is with keeping a count of Josh Smith’s jumpers? I’d hazard a theory, but I’m almost certain it would end in a pissing contest…And I’m serious about the question, I’m just curious as to what precisely you’re driving at. MC used to do that with “ISO-Joe.” I found the whole thing rather annoying, as I don’t think people got the real point behind it, the focus always ended up on the wrong thing/person.

Big Ray

December 27th, 2010
7:33 am

Ray ,

Good points. Very good points. Especially on Smith and LD. And not just because I agree with them, lol. There will be a blog on Larry Drew and his approach, thanks to the excellent suggestion of another blogger here (to be revealed later).

Ray

December 27th, 2010
7:47 am

@ Big Ray

Thanks Big Ray didn’t mean to keep talking about Josh Smith’s jumpers so much just wish that coming up on crunch time when their’s about 5 mins left in the fourth quarter unless were in the lead he just goes straight to the rim.

You know though I’m beginning to wonder who is apart of this sacred core again it seems like everyone up to the sixth man of the year in Rick Sunds perspective. I honestly hope he doesn’t think that cause from the way I see and I’m think everyone else sees it only Josh, Horford, and Joe are the core. Sometimes it seems like they put Jamal in with this sacred core to me, but that’s just an opinion.

doc

December 27th, 2010
7:48 am

big ray, agree with both points regarding josh’s poor selection as well as the issue with the running total. there certainly wasnt a running total for jj who has sucked as a shooter this year with a paltry 27% from the 3 pt line. i really hope it was all due to injury as his last two games were better. even the best have slumps only josh tends to stay in a slump with his head as much as his game. he can be 0 for 4 every game as long as he is thrashing and slashing to make up the difference.

vava74

December 27th, 2010
10:02 am

did not watch the game (maybe I’ll do it later) but just by looking at the boxscore first and to the game flow on popcornmachine.net it’s easy to point out a finger: LD.

LD has had a few miss cues this season and this was another.

Jamal played 34 minutes, including an 18 minute stretch spanning the second half of the third quarter and the whole of the fourth?

Are you &%$# kidding? Jamal is the type of player WHO ABSOLUTELY NEEDS to be used in short spurts and not like this.

Bibby 40 minutes against Paul???

niremetal

December 27th, 2010
10:12 am

Big Ray/Doc,

The running total on Smoove’s jumpers is because going into this year, Smoove has been shooting jumpers more often and more accurately. Given that Smoove being too jumper-happy has been a topic for years, I thought it would be interesting to see if the early year trend of accurate jump shooting continues and, if it doesn’t, whether the regression to the (well, his) mean occurs smoothly or suddenly. There’s no way to look at a box score and tell that because the box score doesn’t distinguish between different types of 2-point field goal attempts, so I decided to take a closer look by going to the shot charts for each game and sharing the results here. It’s interesting info, I thought, and not stuff you can easily find anywhere else – you can find his season averages on Hoopdata and 82games, but you can’t look at trends. I figured others might be interested in it too, so I decided to share it here. Nothing nefarious.

If y’all don’t find it interesting, I can stop posting it. I find it amusing that you seem to be getting defensive about it, but I guess I should have expected that.

Incidentally, it seems like he’s shooting slightly less accurately than he was at the beginning of the year, though still not as bad as in past years. During the 3-game set against NJ/Orl/Cle, his eFG% on jumpers was .425. His season average is .508. Last year, it was .285.

niremetal

December 27th, 2010
10:30 am

If you take the most recent last 3-game totals, the 2-6 against Jersey drops off and is replaced by a 1-7 against NO last night. That means his FG% on jumpers the last 3 games was .286 (down from .350 in the previous 3-game set) and his eFG% was .310 (down from, as I just said, .425).

One thing that is “good” about Josh’s shot selection this year is that there are more 3s mixed in. Historically, he has shot a comparable simple FG% on 3-pointers and long 2s each year. But since 3-pointers are worth more than 2s, the worst of all possible worlds is to have all your jumpers be 2-point attempts, which was the case for Josh last year. His eFG% both on jumpers (.285) and in total (.505) were down from the year before (.349 and .508) despite Josh’s much-ballyhooed decision to stop shooting 3s. Dropping the 3 from his arsenal

niremetal

December 27th, 2010
10:33 am

Whoops, got cut off

Dropping the 3 from his arsenal made Josh’s FG% go up, but it actually made him a less efficient scorer overall because he wasn’t shooting significantly fewer jumpers; he was just shooting fewer of the jumpers that were worth 3 points. Of course, this year his eFG% is down even more (to .496) because even though he is shooting jumpers more accurately than last year, a far higher percentage of his shots are jumpers (57%) compared to last year (36%).

doc

December 27th, 2010
10:43 am

nire i dont think i was being defensive about it at all. i had a subtle criticism of josh in my response, no? i just didnt see it as relevant or constructive or even instructive. i was coming back to say i liked the iso joe thing and though it woild be somewhat flawed and a bit subjective, i would like to see a percentage for smart josh vs dumb josh shot selection. then ti break it diwn further what is percentage made for each of those categories. that would say something. no i was not being josh apologist.

i have long felt josh had promise. with that remember i said as soon as the playoffs were over use him to get bigger and better. i think you were one of the first to shoot it down when i suggested jeffferson as an alternative for example.

vava74

December 27th, 2010
10:56 am

nire,

please keep up. Boxscores have limited info and the introduction of other stats/data is always welcome.

Fortunately the (+-) stat has been introduced to help (and I mean HELP and not more than that) interpret stats (or their absence).

Hence, doc should be interested in knowing that Collins posted a +4 and that his time on court (in spite of almost no stat production) coincided with us taking the lead back in the 4th…

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doc

December 27th, 2010
11:23 am

vava, not sure the + stat is all that relative when torkolu had a +30 the other night. wondered if it was a typo. it is a team game and with as much scoring for the short term i dont know if it is luck or skill. it is unlike hockey where scoring is limited and lines well defined, usually. guess if it is relative it is more important to bring that to LD’s attention rather than mine vava.

kwooden1

December 27th, 2010
11:39 am

Really bad work by the guards and decisions by the coaches last night. Looking at the ESPN shot chart, Al and Smoove took one shot between then at the rim in the 2nd half. ONE!! AL took one shot in the 4th! Your center and PF can’t be SFs or SGs when there are two other guys playing that position already. If you can’t pass the ball into the paint, you have to drive the ball into the paint. I definitely would have used Teague a lot more in the game, because he won’t shoot jumpers. We needed his floater, just to open up some offensive rebounding lanes. This is the one game that I really disagree with what the coaches were doing and decisions that they made. I would like to blame the players for not rebounding in the 2nd half, but we all know you can’t rebound that well out of a zone. And the reason you were in the zone, was Bibby and Jamal. They should have gone with Teague and Joe, with Smoove, AL, Marvin/Evans. Looking at the stats, they never play Teague and Joe at the same time, unless Jamal is on the floor. I don’t understand this at all, unless their excuse is Teague can shoot and they want to spread the floor. But that is stupid because you have three shooters with Marvin, Joe and Josh on the floor! LD is relying to much on Bibby. I’m fine with Bibby for stretches, but not for 30+ minutes a game. He should never play more than 28per game.

The HAWKS don’t rebound the ball consistantly and have a poor turnover ratio. They need to execute their offensive a lot better along with getting more dribble pentration.

dap01

December 27th, 2010
11:50 am

Very poor game by Larry Drew. The Hawks are going no where right now. With JJ back, we seem to be going backward, despite his abilities. Bibby can only shoot and hand off at half court. That makes for poor PG play.

Larry Drew is falling in to the trap of ISO this and ISO that, Jump shot here and jumpshot there.

Not good basketball at all.

O'Brien

December 27th, 2010
12:09 pm

I’m cool with the Josh’s jumpers update. The numbers show, that although Josh was hitting the jumpers regularly early in the season, his FG% on his jumpers are slowly going down.

I know a big part of it is shot selection, but Josh continues to be an up and down player. Wow you one game, make you mad the next.

I was disappointed in Al’s game too. I look at a Blake Griffin, and he is averaging 21 and 12. And he takes it to the hole hard. That’s what I want from Al and Josh.

As for LD and his motion offense, it was supposed to help, and at times it has. But there have been numerous quarters this year where we cant even score 20 points.

And that was a big problem last year. There were numerous games under Woody where we couldnt score 20 points, especially in the fourth.

Mz. Hawkdafied

December 27th, 2010
12:10 pm

How about trading the whole Hawks team for the Redeem team. That’s a guaranteed championship right there. Talk about a blockbuster trade and going over the cap and paying a luxury tax. Haha.

Nope on second thought keep Triple Threat (Joe, Al, and Josh) then trade for the Redeem team minus Boozer and Michael Redd. Shizaam talk about a dominating team.

Just think all the hall of famers, all stars, and superstars you could ever imagine. If this team doesn’t get you down to the Philips Arena then what will? Sellouts for all 41 regular season games plus preseason and most definitely post season. Try to top that trade idea fellow Hawks fans. Yeah, I know impossible but FUN! Haha!

doc

December 27th, 2010
12:28 pm

vava, in between patients so i cant carry on too long. is the positive plus due to twin or drew utilizing him best and making quick changes before twin’s limitations can hurt the team of be reflected in the plus minus number? there are situations where twin will be abused and embarrassed is my guess and drew is using him to his best advantage much like a middle innings relief pitcher that can match up well against right handed hitters but be abused against lefties. he is a specialist plain and simple, so the plus minus stuff can be exaggerated and the problem with a single stat.