Hawks Fans: Jamal Crawford – Pay him or trade him?

Paging Rick Sund. Paging Rick Sund. I hope you’ve enjoyed your vacation, because it might be getting cut just a bit short, what with Jamal Crawford making some noise.

Then again, Sund is not known for being a quick mover in this business. Here’s a question for you right out of the gate, though. Will Sund move with near the swiftness in either paying or dealing Jamal, as he did in acquiring him? Of course, such a question comes with some caveats. One is that we don’t know whether that trade (in which the Hawks sent guards Acie Law and Speedy Claxton to Golden State for Jamal Crawford) just fell into Sund’s lap, or if it was something both the Warriors and the Hawks were planning for some time, or what. Does it really matter? As it stands, Sund is not known for hurrying to make any move (see Josh Smith, Josh Childress, etc), outside of the quick and attractive offer made to Joe Johnson shortly after the free agency period began. Where does Jamal and his demands stand?

So Jamal would rather be somewhere else playing than in Atlanta, if he can’t get an extension he finds to his liking? Isn’t this the same guy who signed a clause in his contract with Atlanta, stating that he would not opt out of the final year of his contract (that would be THIS year), in the trade that brought him here? Do you think he’s being selfish, or is he doing the smart thing from a business standpoint? Is this related to the looming Collective Bargaining Agreement, or is it personal? While you think about that, let’s look at the two options Jamal has put on the table, and what either of them could mean for the team.

 

PAY HIM !

Do you even have to think about it? Jamal is the reigning Sixth Man of they Year. He averaged roughly 18 points per game, which is no mean feat in the NBA. He was the second option on offense. Not only that, but aside from Joe Johnson, who else on this team is  a bonafide scorer/shooter at that level? I’m not talking about just being able to score in the teens. I’m talking about being able to lead a team in scoring. Being able to put up 20 or 30 points on any given night. Being able to take an opponent off the dribble. Being able to create your own shot anywhere inside the half court line. Who else on this team (again, aside from Joe) can do his own thing, and still score 18-20 or more, even on a bad shooting night (i.e. 7 for 21)? Josh Smith? Al Horford? That is the closest you’re going to get, and neither of those guys can get to the line enough to make up for bad shooting or a stifling defense. Not yet, anyway.

What happens if Joe Johnson incurs a serious injury? Who then can step up on offense? Mike Bibby? Sure, he has the range and the stroke, but is he still capable of getting those kinds of points for a couple of games? How about five to ten games? Twenty? Can Marvin Williams do it? Do I really have to ask? Lose Jamal, and you put some pressure back on Joe Johnson and the others. Lose Jamal, and you lose some things. You lose a guy who will take and make a long 3-pointer as the buzzer sounds, without flinching. You lose a guy who can excite the crowd. You lose a guy who can energize the team off the bench. Unless of course you think there are others on the bench who can come in and be that potent a threat. Can Mo Evans do that? Without Jamal, is the bench more than a bunch of also-rans?

 

TRADE HIM!

Pay him more money, are you crazy? We just signed Bibby to a contract before last season, that pays him roughly $6 million per year, and what was the reward? We got to watch his game decline as the year wore on. The same thing could happen with Jamal to some extent, as he is not going to get better as time goes on, not at the age of 29 or 30. Besides, we have two major things going for us – One is Larry Drew’s phenomenal offensive approach, which will not be based on isolation plays. Two, we have Jordan Crawford, who is a talent in his own right. And we don’t want him to rot away on the bench all season the way Teague nearly did last season, do we?

Look how stacked we are at the shooting guard position. There is Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Mo Evans, and Jordan Crawford. Is this good team balance? How do you divide those minutes up without moving Joe and Jamal to other positions (small forward and point guard, respectively)? Is that efficient use of the team, or will it create matchup problems the Hawks don’t want to find themselves in? Also, doesn’t this team need a guy more suited to backup small forward? How about a third point guard in case Teague doesn’t pan out so well, or struggles all season? What about a better big man that the bench currently boasts? Couldn’t moving Jamal address one or more of those positions? Besides, the development of Teague and Jordan Crawford is pivotal for future considerations.

Back to Drew’s offense. If the idea is to move the ball around more and make more potent and efficient scorers out of the entire lineup, then will Jamal’s scoring prowess be needed at the level it was last season? Would he get the kind of shots and stats that made him Sixth Man of the Year last season? If not, does that diminish his value to the team? This team has one guy who can go into isolation mode if necessary, and will have to learn not to do so on a regular basis. Why keep a second one who might have the exact same issues?

 

So which route do you think the Hawks should go? Pay Jamal, or trade him….and why? Also, if he’s extended, how much should he be paid? The Hawks might want to be careful here, as an extension must also be reached with Al Horford, if the they don’t want to play the “watch, then match” game next summer, the way they did with Josh Smith. It’s rarely wise to do that with an All-Star player, particularly a young and promising one. Also, what ramifications might this have on the payroll? The Hawks want no part of the luxury tax, Pape Sy may not come over this year (if that buyout doesn’t work out), and the 13th roster spot has to be filled at some point.

201 comments Add your comment

Melvin

September 1st, 2010
3:37 pm

wordsmithtom,

It was Horford who laid the smack down on Ford. I can’t remember any incident with Rondo….

wordsmithtom

September 1st, 2010
3:43 pm

Williams got a flagrant T for whacking Rondo during the 1’st Boston playoff.

Seriously, if you’re trying to catch up; sure…use your shooters. If you’re protecting a lead, have people who can body up, who can shoot FT’s, who can defend. Way too often, what worked in Q3, was extended into Q4 where it DID NOT WORK.

Tell me you want Jamal with a body on anyone instead of Marvin bodying him. Marvin’s just as large as Horf. Get close to him, you’ll see how large he is.

doc

September 1st, 2010
4:11 pm

word what about ford and marvin? if you are talking about a collision with a hawk it was with horford in horford’s rook year on a supreme effort to get back and not a cheap shot out of frustration. i would rather you be asking me to ask lebron about how tough marvin is as they are the same size. look i would possibly put a hurt on ford or rondo if they are in the air and i run into them. i assure you lebron wouldnt blink. let marvin hurt someone his size then we can talk about how tough he is. too funny.

northcyde

September 1st, 2010
4:14 pm

Vava . . . you can present concrete evidence to people, and they still won’t believe it. Jamal last year did exactly what you said. When the game was tight, he didn’t perform well AT ALL. ( minus the memorable Phoenix game ).

What Jamal did well last year, was blow games open in the middle part of halves. All people have to do, is go back and re-watch some of those games last year. In fact, I wish that people would record more Hawk games, so that they can go back and re-watch them from time to time.

That was Jamal’s main contribution to this team. He helped extend leads. What he didn’t do well, was finish off games ( on either end of the floor ).

Guys like Rusty will criticize Joe Johnson, regardless of what kind of game he’s having. I distinctly remember a late regular season game @ Milwaukee, in which JJ was KILLING the Bucks in the 4th quarter. He scored on something like 5 consecutive possessions at one point. The problem, was that the Hawks couldn’t stop the Bucks on the other end.

So when JJ did finally miss a shot or two near the end of the game, Rusty, and guys who are aganst ISO JJ, blamed JJ for the loss, instead of our inability to get stops on the other end. Forget the fact that he was something like 7 – 9 FG for the quarter, the “ball hog” label was still placed on JJ, as well as blame for the loss.

Jamal, to me, serves the same purpose as J.R. Smith does for Denver. They are high scoring, high shot volume sparkplugs who can take over the game. But you MUST get them out of the game, if they are ineffective ( even during a short stretch ).

But honestly, with as poorly as Marvin and Bibby started playing in the 2nd half of the season, along with Mo Evans, Woody had little choice but to play Jamal at the end of close games.

Ideally, a guy like Jamal on a team like ours, should only be logging 24 – 36 min per game . . . not 30 – 32 min per game.

O'Brien

September 1st, 2010
4:21 pm

wordsmithtom,

Marvin had a flagrant foul on Rondo the last game of the season, and was suspended for the season opener. However, that play did not change my mind about Marvin being soft.

Melvin,

I dont blame Rick for not resigning Chills, given his price tag. However, I would have gone after Matt Barnes to be my backup SF.

I would have traded Jamal for bench depth (either front court, PG, or a combination of both). And I would have let Mo and Jordan handle the backup SG spot.

With a legit backup SF, we wouldnt need JJ to play SF, so he could play 35 minutes at SG. Mo and Jordan can handle the other 13 minutes.

But I dont know what Rick’s options were.

Melvin

September 1st, 2010
4:55 pm

wordsmithtom,
forgot about the Marvin flagrant foul on Rondo play…

Doc,
too funny. i was thinking the same thing. lets see him do that to a guy his size…

OB,
Agreed with your post. Although I would like to dump Mo and his salary.

#5,329,674fan

September 1st, 2010
5:51 pm

hawks need to pay crawford, makes the roster look more city friendly when Sund takes them to Seattle so all the Washington boyz can play for a more appreciative fanbase

doc

September 1st, 2010
6:04 pm

northcyde, you just repeated my argument just about exactly. not sure about the comment on his efficiency as his numbers of shots to get points were often less than jj as he got to the lane more to draw fouls upping his points per field goal taken. if jamal were not here we would have sunk like the titanic. he played starter minutes because no one else was there to pick up the slack, including marvin at 8 mil, hugely unreliable with the ball in his hands close to or away from the basket. no one on that team played well in the fourth quarter including the coach coming down the home stretch of the season.

as far as the “clutch numbers” quoted by vava and accepted as truth by you, when vince carter is top ten, i begin to think the source might be tainted. duncan, pierce, d williams and garnett rank way down the list as well and not that far above crawford, now, what does all that mean? nash terrible on defense ranks high, nowitsky with the tag of a choke artist is third. again what does it mean?

may i ask, what is wrong with a guy who comes off the bench to either rally you when you are down or extend the lead if you have one and a guy like jj sits down? you talk like that is a piece of trash rather than a very good piece of insurance. also iso joe is not a derogatory remark against jj but more a reflection of the lack of offense the hawks had in the fourth quarter. again, it was a strategy by woody to manage the clock and slow possessions as well as decrease turnovers as the ball is not moving, why some football coaches prefer the run in tight situations as there are fewer potential mistakes. sadly, it took the hawks away from what they seemed to do best. stops were also a legitimate problem for the team as they did it well early in the season but couldnt do it later. at the beginning of the season their win margins were huge only to crumble towards the end losing leads rather than extending them. all that cant be hung on jamal, sorry the arrow is mis-aimed there.

i doubt we win 53 without jamal and instead have flip, again a guy who has only once in his career been asked to play that many minutes per game. it is where this discussion started, i think. after crawford’s second year he has only been below what he played with us last year and last year, numbers wise for minutes played, was one of his lowest but a very highly productive 31 mpg.

doc

September 1st, 2010
6:15 pm

correction for clarity …after crawford’s second year he has only been below what he played with us last year “once” and last year, numbers wise for minutes played, was one of his lowest but a very highly productive 31 mpg.

vava74

September 1st, 2010
7:06 pm

doc,

I like Jamal’s game, however, I don’t get blinded by his shot against PHO.

northcyde – with whom I seldom agree – was spot on @northcyde 4:14 pm.

Jamal broke open games and extended leads. He was terrific at that. But down the line? Nope.

As for the stats being tainted? Come on… is that your argument? Stats do not match your PERCEPTION than stats must be wrong?

I would also like you to check Marvin’s stats in the clutch (same page) and you will see that he had good shot % to go along with the fact that he is a bigger body and much better defensively than Marvin.

Actually, I distinctively remember us being able to hold on to leads in several games with Marvin on the court and then collapsing when Woody got Jamal in again.

These stats are not gospel but tell a lot. I know that it is surprising to see Carter and Nowitski high on that list but Nowitski has greatly improved his clutch performance recently and Carter was working in a very favorable environment which took him a lot of pressure (people clogged the middle to stop Howard, Nelson broke defenses open with his combination of speed and outside shot and Carter had a lot of space to maneuver.

As for Garnett not being there? Garnett has been a notorious choker in the clutch. It’s well documented, even in the years in which his legs were good. Last year he simply was not playing at his normal level so it is pretty normal to see him low.

As for Nash, the stats are sorted using the offensive stats, so I don’t see why he would not be high.

vava74

September 1st, 2010
7:13 pm

Again on Carter:

I went to compare Carter’s clutch stats in 08-09 and 09-10:

He improved significantly from 08-09 to 09-10 in points per 48 minutes of clutch (he leapfrogged JJ).

However, that was obtained with much lower FG% and 3pt% BUT WITH A LOT MORE FTA: +10 from one year to another.

Simple explanation: Carter’s game was whistled differently since he joined ORL and he started getting a lot of ref protection.

Big Ray

September 1st, 2010
7:17 pm

Funny thing about “facts.”

I don’t see people arguing about the actual facts. I see people trying to use the facts to support an assertion.

Facts:

1. Stats show Jamal Crawford did not have a high “clutch shootinger” percentage.

2. Jamal was in at the end of a lot of games, moreso than at least one starter (Marvin Williams) and probably moreso than a second starter (Mike Bibby).

3. Rick Sund was quoted as saying that one of the things that sold him on the acquisition of Jamal Crawford was his 4th quarter stats.

4. Anything below 50% is less than half of a whole.

5. Finisher is not the same word as closer or clutch shooter. Look them up in the dictionary.

Now that we’ve established a few facts (and I’m sure that somebody will want proof on the Rick Sund quote, but you can look it up for yourself), here are my predictions of how those facts will be used:

1. Somebody will say that there is more value in what Flip Murray than there is in Jamal Crawford. Whoops, somebody already said that.

2. Somebody will say that Jamal is not a good game finisher or clutch shooter. Wait, somebody already said that, too.

3. Somebody will say that people will ignore facts no matter how much you present them. Darn it…I could have sworn I’ve heard that one before.

4. Somebody will use this as an indictment of Woody (playing Crawford during the clutch moments of games….what, nobody on his staff kept track of Crawford’s awful clutch stats throughout the season?). What? Indict Woody? Inconceivable!

5) Someone will use this to indict Sund. Get in line.

6) This will be connected to the ASG, which will result in numerous modifications to the acronymical title. Yep, I can see that happening somewhere in the future. What, there are already 12, 384 versions?

Man, I suck at making predictions. ;)

Big Ray

September 1st, 2010
7:51 pm

Vava ,

I think the stats are pretty interesting…in doses. Like you said, they aren’t gospel. A guy can be as clutch as they come, but what about his team as a whole? Let’s say a guy has a high shooting percentage in clutch situations, but his team only wins 30 games in a season. Those clutch stats are great for fantasy leagues and for perhaps that individual player’s contract negotiations.

I’m not up in arms about Jamal and what he does at the end of games. There is no reason to be, because what this TEAM has been able to do in the clutch has been the problem. If the whole team is subpar in the clutch, I see little point in needling a single player for it. I know the original post article stated that he “will make and take shots at the end of games”, but that’s one proposed side of a two-sided argument, not my own personal opinion. I say value the guy for what he brings you.

Northcyde ,

Yes, Jamal did exactly as you say. So there must be some value in a player who gives and extends the lead for a team that does not finish close games out very well as a whole, no? The question is, HOW MUCH VALUE? The question stands. Pay him, trade him, or play him his final season without doing either? What say you…

Also, I noticed you say he should be logging 24-36 mpg, rather than 30-32 mpg. Did you mean 24-26 mpg? Because 30-32 is within the range of 24-36, so I’m missing your point a bit.

Big Ray

September 1st, 2010
7:52 pm

O’brien ,

Looked for your post that you said the blog monster might be munching on. Couldn’t find it, sorry…

Big Ray

September 1st, 2010
7:54 pm

Vava ,

Those stats on Carter, as you presented them, would suggest that there is quite a difference in the foul calls you get on a very bad team, versus the ones you get on a very good team. Heh…but we know no such concept exists, though, right? LOL.

doc

September 1st, 2010
8:52 pm

vava …”Simple explanation: Carter’s game was whistled differently since he joined ORL and he started getting a lot of ref protection.”

rofl csl rofl rofl csl

yes very simple vava … too simple. one can say anything they want with stats. if it is that simple, it proves how worthless the stats are. the boston c’s were at the midrange to bottom for your clutch stuff but they go to the finals and lose in the seventh game because they didnt have their center on the bench with a blown out acl. yeah, i am all over those stats vava, all over them. carter didnt deliver again and his team didnt go anywhere beyond a full team thrashing of the hawks. problem with the stats on many of these is they are probably not a complete appropriate sampling size to compare among other errors to put much relevance/credence to them. anyway i hope we have as good an extender as jamal was this year if he wasnt a good finisher. i think we might need it.

ray yes, i agree and said it as well, it was team effort, not due to one guy. to single him out is unnecessary. would jamal’s stats be better if the ball had been in his hands more to draw fouls? ummm maybe.

Big Ray

September 1st, 2010
9:23 pm

Doc ,

Could be. He did seem better at drawing fouls than most others. And he hit those foul shots. Is there a stat for clutch free throws? :)

doc

September 1st, 2010
9:29 pm

vava … “northcyde – with whom I seldom agree – was spot on @northcyde 4:14 pm.”

since he agreed with you, well, i can say without a stat book on it, when someone agrees with you, you can agree right back 100% of the time. another funny for my evening.

but wait, didnt northcyde also say … “But honestly, with as poorly as Marvin and Bibby started playing in the 2nd half of the season, along with Mo Evans, Woody had little choice but to play Jamal at the end of close games.”

hmm didnt i also say something like that before him? so you were agreeing with me, too? thanks! ;-)

so let me repeat ….

“yes vava, he drove the ball and got into the lane and got foul shots, which he made. jj cant do that and it is needed in the late parts of games. maybe he should have had that responsibility more often. who else do you want in there vava, bibby or marvin, who both had terrible years offensively and defensively? who did they stop all year? it seems this is more of a personal thing vava. you dont like him, so be it. you wont find value in the guy no matter how many rational efforts are made to you.

doc

September 1st, 2010
9:43 pm

vava the lakers have no clutch players either, gasol at 19 and fisher and artest below him and none others except kobe up at the top. all c’s below 24. battier down at the vey bottom? what does this really mean when the best teams in the nba are so poorly represented in this gospel you try to sell me vava, do you have another simple answer? or is it seriously flawed?

Melvin

September 1st, 2010
11:46 pm

doc,

There’s probably a stat for every aspect of the game. Some are useful and some probably not. I’m willing to bet that not many head coaches spent a lot of time analyzing individual player stats because most are not useful when it comes to team success or failures.

doc

September 2nd, 2010
12:13 am

yeah melvin, odd isnt it that a stat for clutch doesnt contain more than one player from the top two teams in the league in the top half. seems if it were meaningful then maybe more would be on there or it is a very over rated stator even worthless stat as given here. guess they dont have any finishers on any of those teams, eh? maybe we can say crawford is a close gap or extender guy if he isnt a finisher. we certainly know he isnt a clutch player or a closer.

also, i wouldnt want a smart guy like shane battier on my team now that i know his clutch stats are so low. i dont think he would qualify to even play in the second half, right? kind of absurd, isnt it, that a heady, smart, intense, well rounded and excellent defending ballplayer isnt among the top half?

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
2:46 am

doc,

FIRST, better teams have fewer players in the ppg48 of these clutch stats because:

a) they have a dominant clutch player who absorbs most points in the clutch (Lakers, Cleveland, …); and or
b) have many players who contribute in the clutch so the ppg48min stat does not show them (Boston, Lakers as well, …)

SECOND, please look at the stats again AND mainly into what I focused on my criticism of Jamal as a “finisher”:

I did not focus on points per 48 minutes of clutch time. There Jamal, due to his FTs his still rated pretty high and as you say (I did not deny it) makes him still decently useful.

I focused on FG% and 3pt% to illustrate that Jamal’s reputation as a guy who makes big shots in the clutch is TAINTED BY FACTS which in this case are last years’ stats.

That, complemented with the FACT that he is a poor defender makes it, IMO, a poor finisher.

THIRD,

Marvin’s lack of play and involvement in a offense which was mostly ISOs after ISOs (being that he is not a good ISO player) hinder any analysis of what he could contribute in the clutch offensively.

HOWEVER, defensively, he always contributed when called to play the last minutes.

FOURTH, given the fact that Jamal is, as a player, a “free spirit”, Drew’s organized offense will probably be a lot less suited for his game style.

Allegedly there will be a lot less monopolized ball possession and Jamal has always been more effective as an ISO player than inserted within set plays (my impression is that as a spot shooter his percentages are lower than when he shoots off a long dribble sequence).

Ray,

Stop being so “Astro”. I already said DOZENS of times that I like Jamal and that he was very important to blow games open.

However, I said that the way he was over used, in particular to close games, was IMO detrimental to the team effectiveness and erased in many occasions his positive influence (gained earlier in the game).

For me, there is no question that a player who is such a poor defender, a mediocre playmaker and which was shooting poorly in the clutch throughout the year, as stats prove, should have been used differently.

I directly challenged a sentence in your Blog which is IMO blatantly wrong:

Jamal’s value for this team does not come from the fact that he is a good “finisher” (which he is not).

Jamal’s value for this team is as spark plug off the bench for 20/25 minutes per game and that is not worth more than 5/6 million per.

I don’t give a sh!t that he won SMOY: he won it because Woody overused it AND it is conceivable that if Woody had limited his minutes and his PPG averaged had been 3 points less (lets say 15ppg) but we had won 6 or 7 games more, that he would have gotten the award anyhow.

Hence, I also said that it is conceivable that 53 win mark could have been reached with Flip and I justified this extrapolation with a couple of arguments:

1.His clutch shooting in 08-09 was MUCH MUCH better than Jamal’s in 09-10 (just an example: .500 from 3 point land against .120);
2. He is/was a much better defender (as the clutch stats for steals and blocks seem to corroborate beyond any doubt).

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
6:20 am

doc,

don’t be an a**.

Battier is a good defensive player, hence he is clearly a finisher regardless of his ppg per 48 in the clutch.

When he is on court to finish a game, he is not there to score and he is not asked to shoot (hence his 6,7 FGA per 48 minutes of clutch which make his low shooting percentages in the clutch irrelevant).

On the contrary:

Jamal is a very very poor defensive player, which means that his presence in the closing moments of a game, in the clutch, as a finisher, can only be justified if he can bring offense.

Shooting .246 from the field and .120 from 3 point land DOES NOT QUALIFY.

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
7:17 am

doc,

When a team has an extremely dominant clutch player like Lebron and Bryant, the rest of the team mates will obviously appear on the points per 48 minutes of clutch stat very low.

The same is also applicable when a starting 5 has more than 1 option for the clutch shots like BOS and even the Lakers which makes the 2nd, 3rd and 4th players of a given team on the points per 48 minutes of clutch low since the points are distributed amongst them.

I am under the impression that you simply can’t read and interpret stats or you are unwilling to do so.

I repeatedly said that stats are not gospel however given the fact that Jamal is a poor defensive player his offensive stats had to be good to justify the “finisher” status.

Never, in my posts there was any claim that I did not like Jamal or that I consider him a bad player.

He is – and you can’t deny it – a “one trick pony” which did not perform well in the clutch, leading to my conclusion that he should have been used more sparingly and significantly less to close games.

Also:

The stats on that page appear sorted by Points per 48 minutes of Clutch.

However, if you click on a different column, they will be sorted by that particular stat.

For instance: Assist per 48 minutes of clutch: you get Nash at the top, followed by Deron and Wade.

So, there is a lot more to analyze than just merely the page as it loads by “default”.

O'Brien

September 2nd, 2010
7:22 am

Didn’t VC miss some crucial FTs down the stretch of a playoff game in Orlando?

The only reason Jamal should be in a game at the end is for offensive purposes.

Given LD’s emphasis on defense, it will be interesting to see if he goes with Marvin at the end of games instead of Jamal (assuming Jamal is still here).

The Department of free insults

September 2nd, 2010
8:30 am

I am under the impression that you simply can’t read and interpret stats or you are unwilling to do so.

It is always funny when disagreeing turns into insulting. Says so much more about the person offering the insult, than the person it was aimed at. Cannot win an argument? Just turn to insulting a person intelligence.

doc

September 2nd, 2010
8:47 am

vava, “When a team has an extremely dominant clutch player like Lebron and Bryant, the rest of the team mates will obviously appear on the points per 48 minutes of clutch stat very low.”

exactly, and who had the ball in his hands and was so dominant on the hawks? wasnt it jj and makes your argument based on this particular skewed statistical evaluation severely flawed, worthless and senseless when trying to use it to devalue jamal? thank you for clearing it up in your own words for everyone and yourself and hope you are honest enough to se it and state it yourself. either it is so narrow focused, again based on sample size error, or or teams spread it around like the celts do and no one is dominant again sampling error issue. i would never consider paul pierce to not be a clutch player. i cant stand the guy but recognize he has the heart of a lion and has driven the stake home way to many times to not be considered high on any list.

one other category no one has brought up and another i consider special in jamal. jamal’s ability to make four pointers where he has the nba record suggests a special quality and one more reason i would put jamal on the court at the end of games. again i will echo northcyde and repeat myself, who did you want on the court last year at the end, marvin, mo, teague, bibby or jamal? four pointers arent clutch either? the guy is a triple threat on offense to drive, score deep at the three point line or make free throws as well as almost anyone. i’ll take that.

face it woody had confidence in one guy and one guy only and it was jj who dominated the ball and by this design makes your assessment flawed by your own evaluation of other teams. how can you say that jamal fell short in this category when it wasnt his time to shine by design? how can you ignore how dominant jj was with the ball in crunch time then try to use this invalid stat to assign such a low impression on jamal based on it when he was in an offense that had a dominant player by design. arent you manipulating it the way you want it? it is either one way or the other? look, say it is your opinion and that is fine, we can argue from there or not but please dont try to use these stats, again so very flawed by your own admission to make your argument. though no statistician i know how stats are used AND misused vava, part of the training i had. you can pack that shot in and yake it home with you as you blatantly misuse this drek.

so your statement:

He is – and you can’t deny it – a “one trick pony” which did not perform well in the clutch, leading to my conclusion that he should have been used more sparingly and significantly less to close games.

is an impression of yours and opinion and is not based on any facts you have presented. fine, it is your opinion and one you may get others to agree but please dont use smoke and mirrors statistics as gospel when you turn around and give the perfect argument yourself why it is invalid, to make your point, no? again, i will take him as others have and given him credit for as being a very important cog last year winning the smoy award for his talents and efforts and was a guy who stepped up to fill a very huge void left as marvin and bibby tanked during the year. call him an “extender” if you will and not finisher but again who did you want out there instead at the end of games? oh, please dont say flip could have done it as a very strong stat of mpg in a season over a career suggests otherwise. flip is a short term fix and always has been with no history of being a guy who can stay on the court for extended minutes. that is a stat based on history you can take to the bank.

Astro Joe

September 2nd, 2010
8:49 am

I think there is tremendous value in a player who helps to stretch the lead in previously tightly contested games. If nothing else, it could mean that the “Sacred Core” gets more of a break while Jamal is doing his thing. But as another blog mentioned, in a summer where the Hawks invested $120M+ and a 1st round pick in the SG position, it just doesn’t quite follow that they would now offer a contract extension to yet another SG. I will be disappointed if Jamal acts like a malcontent if he is not traded before the season. He arrived with a rep of being a selfish player. IMO, he proved otherwise. Asking for an extension is fine, becoming a malcontent when you don’t get it is not acceptable. Again, I expect that he will handle his business and recognize the need to maintain his trade value by being a good soldier. If he tries to play the diva role, it may cost him some dough in his next contract.

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
8:55 am

FACT:

Jamal: extremely poor defense and .246 from the field and .120 from 3 point land in clutch time.

PERCEPTION:

Ray: “…You lose a guy who will take and MAKE a long 3-pointer as the buzzer sounds, without flinching.”

The “MAKE” bit is the one I contest, at least last year.

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
8:57 am

doc,

Jamal attempted 19.1 FG per 48 minutes of clutch.

JJ attempted 29.3 FG per 48 minutes of clutch.

It’s a significant difference but it not a huge difference.

This means that Jamal had plenty of opportunities to shoot in the clutch (there was no JJ monopoly as many want us to believe). He simply did not drain them at an acceptable pace.

Astro Joe

September 2nd, 2010
8:58 am

Jorge Sierra: Etan Thomas’ manager Carlisle Sealy confirms the 6-foot-10 will take physicals for the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday. Twitter

Jorge Sierra: Pending results of physicals, Thomas will be signing Friday morning at the latest. Twitter

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
9:09 am

Talking about BOS and Pierce’s clutch stats:

BOS Pierce Games40 Minutes 139 (+-)21 (+-)+7 FGA16.6 FG%.375 3ptA4.1 3pt% .417 FTA11.0 FT%78% Points per 48min 22.8 Assisted 50% Rebp48 5.9 Assp484.5 TOp481.4 BLKper48 0.7 STLper48 1.4

As you can see, Piece has pretty good clutch stats, however, note the following:

- he has less FGA per 48 minutes of clutch than Jamal
- he has better FG% and 3pt%
- he has more assists and blocks per 48 (but less steals – rebounds not relevant due to size and position differential)
- he was assisted in 50% of his clutch points

The above shows that Jamal had plenty of shots in the clutch to make his stats meaningful and that those stats are far worse than Pierce’s.

It also shows that Boston had MUCH better ball distribution, less ISO – plays and consequently a lot more assists during the clutch period of games.

Well, you can argue that Jamal would also have had better FG% and 3pt% if our play had more ball movement and more assists.

However, Ray’s whole article focused on Jamal-the-other-guy-other-than-JJ-that-can-create-his-own-shot-and-can-drain-the-3pointer-at-the-buzzer

That is where I strongly disagree with both of view and I am backing my opinion with facts, namely stats which are not being thrown into the blog without interpretation.

doc

September 2nd, 2010
9:36 am

it is monopoly in time WITH the ball, vava and you know it and who had it in his hands creating his shot jj or jamal, kobe or odem, say? how many times did he get it at the end if the clock? did he get it where he needed it or just where he happened to be. if you have the ball in your hand you take your shot not someone else’s poorly designed one out of necessity. problem when you break down your stats across the board as you did earlier they fall apart when it is not of your convenience. go back and figure it out for the low liers in the system like gasol, pierce, duncan, etc and see if the stats still say what you want them to say. stay in your quicksand and i dont have time to go back and review everyone in detail but as i have pressed you on this you will find it just as flawed. is deron williams that poor of a clutch guy he ranks just a few notches above jamal? gee, he is overpaid then isnt he or is he more of a distributor first and and shoot last kind of point guard instead of the other way around? does that influence the numbers? how do you explain it across the board vava? you must if you are going to use stats with wisdom and clarity, true analytical assessments.

doc

September 2nd, 2010
10:24 am

yes, ball movement is critical to guys getting shots where they need it, boston did it well. it was scripted with allen running off multiple screens, pierce stepping in and stepping out to get the ball delivered at his sweet spot. how much did that happen in atlanta or was it more of a dump?

vava, let us then try another one, very simple, with similar numbersfor each guy, though it needs an update and i would love to see one. it may be even more pertinent because it was pre-woody for jamal:

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

who is more clutch now? jj or jamal or neither? yup, jamal when given the last shot was only a fraction worse than jj was he not? maybe they are neither clutch guys or closers like dr mb calls it. maybe crawford deteriorated as he was less the guy to get his shoot when he came here.

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
10:33 am

doc,

where did the stats fall apart?

Deron has better clutch stats than Jamal – across the board – being Assists per 48 min of clutch the main one.

In relation to shooting stats, he is also better, although not great at all .375 from the field and .214 from 3 point land.

Since he is a very good playmaker, a pretty decent defender at the PG slot and his shooting % is “mediocre” but passable for a PG, overall he is a pretty good “finisher”.

Duncan?

Passable FG% .384 to go along with 13FTA per 48min of clutch and excellent rebounding stats 18.4 per 48 minutes of clutch.

I also said REPEATEDLY that these stats were not gospel, but you cannot deny that they are meaningful.

You basically say that Jamal’s clutch FG% and 3pt% are justified because he did not receive any opportunities to launch good shots allegedly because during the last 5 minutes of every close Hawks game JJ is the only guy with the rock on his hands and Jamal only launched “desperation shots”!!!!

Please, give me a break!! You may say that stats don’t tell the whole story – and I accept – but you only present a personal perception on how the last 5 minutes of Hawks’ games developed…

And even if this was remotely true – it is not – JJ’s stats prove that he was the best clutch option.

Also, how come Josh and Al’s shooting % in the clutch are .432 and .500?? Wouldn’t their stats be worse if everyone else was getting only leftover shots as you seem to indicate?

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
10:42 am

doc,

Jamal is an ISO-free wheeling player.

Jamal had very good clutch stats in 08-09 being the “main ISO guy for his team” due mostly to his ability to get to the FT line which generated more points per 48 min of clutch than JJ but with worse FG%.

My whole argument was that WITH US LAST YEAR he did not perform at that level and that his presence on court to close games was not useful in my opinion.

My view is that you cannot have a bad defensive player who excels only in ISO situations playing at the same time that we play JJ with an assigned job as the main ISO guy.

You either play JJ or Jamal on that role, not both of them, hence I don’t consider Jamal a good option as a “finisher” for us (or for any team which already has another “assigned ISO player”).

If he is not in ISO mode he does not bring anything else and gives way to much on D.

doc

September 2nd, 2010
11:46 am

again vava i repeat a question you seem to act like a matador and dodge. who would have been better last year at what he did on the hawks to get us to 53 wins …. bibby, marvin, teague, mo, joe smith, randmo, collins? WHO? he essentially took over the role of bibby in my mind during those situations. he played admirably and out of his comfort zone i imagine and downplayed it himself and very unselfishly i might add, though many questioned his ablility to do it didnt they at the start of the season? isnt that too, worth some considerations vava as you want to make him out to be something he isnt, a defensive player? he wasnt supposed to do what jj did and i said that as well. now, who can or should have replaced him? i know you want something else but it isnt on the hawks roster now or then, why put jamal in the crosshairs because he doesnt fit your ideal?

doc

September 2nd, 2010
12:32 pm

one more thing vava, when jamal was the man at gsw, you might take notice his numbers were better for point production per 48 minutes than jj and ranked among the top ten.

http://www.82games.com/0809/CSORT11.HTM

hmmmm, i say the guy was very unselfish last year accepting his lesser role last year. he played his heart out for us, even saying the right things when our season was crashing down around us. one thing i can tell you jj is not mr clutch when it comes to interviews when he is asked to say the right things or say i didnt do my job and i understand others frustrations as i have them myself. heh heh

Astro Joe

September 2nd, 2010
4:26 pm

doc, in that chart that you posted, Joe beat Jamal in most categories except FTAs… where Jamal took 3X as many in clutch situations as Joe… that is why the points were different. Joe was more efficient (and clearly a far superior player overall based on +/-) but failed to get to the free throw line. Or said differently, the stats bear out what most of us suspected based on visual evidence.

doc

September 2nd, 2010
4:34 pm

yes, aj, only havent we said for years the main flaw in jj’s game was his inability to get to the line and how it affects outcomes in close games! so maybe the guy that needed it more in his hands because of that should have been jamal instead of camped out away from the basket where he will do less damage. maybe jj would have been more effective without the ball spotting up where he wanted to be for his shot? would that have built on their strengths instead of their weaknesses?

doc

September 2nd, 2010
4:41 pm

aj, go back and read what i have said through this stream without the benefit of stats, that jj was not as efficient because of this very thing. it is something we have all wondered about, written about and what made the iso-joe so flawed in that situation as he didnt get the calls or he doesnt drive to the basket only falling away from it and contact to get the call. funny, with jamal showing that with gsw, doesnt it sort of dispute the notion that guys on bad teams get the calls while guys on good teams get them? maybe it is a skill as he demonstrates it even on three pointers to get the call while still making the shot.

Astro Joe

September 2nd, 2010
4:53 pm

doc, Jamal clearly knows how to get the call. IMO, that is indisputable. I recognize his value to an elite team, unfortunately, I just think that he is a luxury on a $70M payroll… a luxury that we can’t afford with the type of PG play that is likely to happen (good at best) and a lack of quality big man depth. But none of that takes away from Jamal the player, it just calls into question his long-term viability as a co-worker with the Sacred Core.

Astro Joe

September 2nd, 2010
5:01 pm

doc, Jamal’s ability to get to the free throw line is indisputable, IMO. His value as a player is fairly clear to me. I just think that on a team with a $70M payroll, he is a luxury that we can’t afford. I expect fair-to-middling PG play and fair-to-middling big man play from the bench. Neither will result in a deep playoff run. If the core remains the same (which seems to be the desired goal), I simply can’t see keeping Jamal AND expecting a better result. And to MC’s point a few days ago, if Teague is Drew’s preference to relieve Bibby (a role assigned to Jamal last season), then it appears that the plan is to reduce Jamal’s role. If Teague is increasing his minutes and Josh is seeing time at SF, unless they are sitting the $120M man (doubtful), Jamal is the guy who likely sees his minutes decrease. But again, none of that reduces Jamal’s skill set nor his ability to make something out of very little.

Astro Joe

September 2nd, 2010
5:02 pm

doc, blog ate 2 posts. Super short version, Jamal is exceptional at getting FTAs.

doc

September 2nd, 2010
7:03 pm

aj, maybe ray can do his rescue thing when he comes back on the job. ;-)

vava74

September 2nd, 2010
7:52 pm

doc,

it is pretty obvious that you don’t even read my posts.

check again: 2 hours before your “revelation” post I had already mentioned that Jamal in 08-09 whilst in GS had better points per 48 minutes of clutch time than JJ and pointed out why (FTs).

As for, who would I have had playing instead of Jamal?

Certainly I would have kept Marvin in the game to provide perimeter D and extra rebounding.

Also, Marvin’s clutch stats were pretty decent (.583 from the field, 8,7 rebounds per 48), so, I would have been OK with him taking a few shots, specially in the lane where I believe he is more effective (his 3pt% in the clutch was .000 – due to his diminutive average of 1,1 attempts per 48 minutes of clutch) AND gets the calls to get to the line.

From a play making point of view, I would have preferred to keep Bibby on the floor (defense wise they are equivalently bad) and from a FG% and 3pt%, Bibby had better numbers (not good, but much better).

doc

September 2nd, 2010
9:54 pm

vava respectfully i say i dont think bibby had it in him last year, just dont. i also dont think he brings much since he is so one dimensional now. he cant penetrate, he cant make an uncontested layup much less get into the lane to draw a foul, his defense is worse than jamal and their offensive stats including assists and t o are very similar. just dont get how you would put your marbles with him.

as far as marvin, he cant camp out where you want him to be without moving josh smith out there. he has shown no heart in being the man in the clutch and he isnt one to go for it from downtown. even though he was one of the finishers most of the time he wasnt clutch material based on his psyche and what he has done in the past, so i guess we disagree. i could get rod in here i guess to make an argument for it as well. ;-) many folks see through the mirage called marvin.

yes, sorry to reiterate what you already pointed out. it is significant to say jamal was unselfish and playing out of his usual comfort zone for the betterment of the team.

niremetal

September 2nd, 2010
11:47 pm

Another big body and still no one to come off the bench and defend the perimeter. :roll:

niremetal

September 2nd, 2010
11:48 pm

And now, back to the US Open…

doc

September 3rd, 2010
12:00 am

nire, i am sure the frenchman will sate your thirst when his name is added to the line. it will be about as well as collins, powell and etan have quenched mine for a legit big along with josh, al and zaza.

i thought the u s open was already played in pebble back in june nire.