Atlanta Falcons: Birds Face Playoff Questions
Time for the Falcons to Get it Done
Time to Get it Done #2 (AJC)
It’s what we’ve all been waiting for: the playoffs. Falcons players, fans, and everyone associated with the organization have heard it all the way back to last January when they were embarrassed for the second year in a row in the playoffs, losing three out of four. The chorus from the media elite and talking heads has only grown louder every time the Birds won another game. There are literally almost no articles that have been written this season regarding the Falcons, in any capacity, that have not mentioned the “can’t win in the playoffs,” or “0-3 in the playoffs,” meme. Even articles that have been favorable or complimentary always have that backhand tucked in there somewhere. Yes, it’s true the Falcons have fallen short the past three tries in the playoffs under Coach Smith, but the incessant and ridiculous inclusion of that attack line has been preposterous. How could the Falcons change anything about past or the postseason in week 4?
The time has come for this head coach, this quarterback, and this organization to put this garbage to rest. For some, it will never be enough until the Falcons win the Super Bowl outright, and even then some will rationalize it away. However, getting over that hump will do wonders for all associated with the Falcons and blow up that assault once and for all. Fans likely can’t even go to what it will be like if they don’t win this one.
Have Lessons Been Learned? Part 2
This is a sequel to last weeks post regarding planning and preparation on the part of the coaching staff, specifically Head Coach Mike Smith. An article by the AJC’s D. Orlando Ledbetter discussed how different this year’s preparation will be both during the bye week and after. It appears that Smith has learned his lessons, because the details of how truly soft their bye week preparation that was done, is shocking. The idea of a team earning a bye week is just like the bye week during the season, teams can get their team as healthy as possible, working on fundamentals that have been slipping, and fix problems that cropped up.
Time to Cut Julio Loose (AJC)
Smith evidently felt it was a time have cookies and punch. He gave them 3 days off during the bye week, had them report on Thursday, and then gave them the rest of the weekend off. Yes, that’s no joke. It’s actually a wonder the Falcons didn’t get beat worse than 48-21 in the Debacle in the Dome by the Packers. It’s understandable that you don’t want to do Oklahoma drills all day and treat it like training camp battles, but for goodness sake, you’ve got to find a way to keep somewhat of an edge. Smith has said all the right things and it seems he got the message loud and clear after his initial approach. Smith was quoted as saying something along the lines of “we’re going to do do everything completely different than the last time.” That’s surely music to fans ears.
Momentum is a Guarantee of Playoff Success, Right?
Most talking head media elites are ready to crown the Seahawks and the Redskins as NFC champions because they are on a winning streak going into the playoffs. Many writers and so-called experts are all about the recent trends, don’t really do research, and just go with what’s popular. It’s very true that the past two years, the wild card teams have squeaked into the playoffs and gone on to win the Super Bowl, the Packers in 2010 and the Giants in 2011. Both teams were 6th seeds and that has become a very popular theme because that’s what’s in vogue. The Giants were a wild card in 2007 and went on to beat the mighty undefeated Patriots. The Steelers were a wild card in 2005 and they beat a stacked AFC that year.
No More Arm Tackles DeCoud (AJC)
ESPN even went as far as to develop a stat that read “of the 36 most recent playoff teams, 11 that have been on a 5+ game winning streak have gone to the Super Bowl. 5 of those have won the Super Bowl. The Broncos, Redskins, and Seahawks are on a 5+ game winning streak.” What kind of stat is that? And furthermore, that comes to a whopping 30% of success on getting to the Super Bowl and 14% winning it. They might as well done a statistic on cleat colors and playoff success. Talk about curtailing statistics to fit your biased opinion.
Yes, the past two years and 3 out of 4 have favored the team that has momentum, a fairly mythical construction all on it’s own, but statistics are past numbers for a reason. If the same researchers go back a little further (most statisticians averse to determine a “trend” less than decade), they would see a fairly inconclusive analysis. A list of the past 10 seasons:
Season — Super Bowl Winner — Seed
2011 – Giants – #4 Division Champ
2010 – Packers – #6 Wild Card
2009 – Saints – #1 Bye
2008 – Steelers – #2 Bye
2007 – Giants – #5 Wild Card
2006 – Colts – #3 Division Champ
2005 – Steelers – #6 Wild Card
2004 – Patriots – #2 Bye
2003 – Patriots – #1 Bye
2002 – Bucs – #2 Bye
So there you have the list of the past 10 Super Bowl winners. Even though recent history says that getting hot at the right time, barely getting in the playoffs as a wildcard, or being on a winning streak guarantees you a Super Bowl or playoff success, the fact is that it’s a fairly insignificant probability over the last 10 years, despite what’s “popular” among the media elite. The last 10 years have seen 50% of teams with a bye win the Super Bowl, 30% Wild Cards, and 20% as Division Champs. The point is not to say that momentum can’t play a part in playing well in the playoffs and ultimately winning the Super Bowl, but it’s simply meant to bust all the media elite’s strict adherence to “playing well close to the playoffs guarantees playoff success” and thereby denigrating or outright ignoring the Falcons. After all, the Saints actually lost 3 games in a row before winning the whole thing.
Underdogs Again
The Falcons and everyone associated with their organization won’t lack for any motivation when they tee it up next Sunday at 1 pm. To be fair, the Falcons losing all 3 of their playoff games, with the last two being embarrassing blowouts, have given most “media elite experts” every reason to doubt the Falcons. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, that is the painful truth. However, the experts have taken that meme and ran away with it, all the way back since April and continuing on to mini-camp until now. It seems that it’s a “anyone but the Falcons” in the NFC mantra for most that know everything there is to know about football and the NFL (too bad we can’t use these experts to solve world hunger, eh?).
Spoon's Big Arena (AJC)
The Seahawks and the Redskins are everyone’s darlings because A) they’re not the Falcons and B) they’re the wild cards who are on a winning streak (see point above). The Packers and Niners are the traditional teams who have been their favorites all year, even if they’re not the flavor-of-the-week wild cards, but of course they’re always the backups. Maybe the only other team close to the Falcons are the Vikings, but they have MVP, All-World running back Adrian Peterson and that’s definitely a feel-good storyline better than those terrible Falcons.
Of course this will come across as whiny to any non-Falcon fans, and it might be a little bit, but Falcons fans are sick and tired of hearing it and it’s impossible to imagine how much the players are. Truth be told, the Falcons, particularly Mike Smith, haven’t helped themselves at all. Todd McClure said something to the effect of flying under the radar all the way to February. Looks like he’s going to get his wish. They say that bulletin board material can only go so far and doesn’t win games in the end, but it surely can’t help to add in a little extra fire when the game kicks off or when things get tough.
Which Offense Will Show Up?
The Falcons jekyll and hyde offense surely has some fans worried about next Sunday. To be fair, the Falcons have done a much better job overall with consistency than year’s past, including some really nice offensive explosions like the Chiefs, Eagles, and Giants game. However, they’ve also put up some big clunkers as well. It’s hard to imagine the Birds coming out as flat as they did the previous two years in the playoffs, but some bad offensive outputs may have fans a little nervous. While looking dominant at times, they’ve also looked downright anemic as well, such as they did vs. the Raiders, Cardinals, the Saints second game, and the Panthers second game, not to mention the most recent game vs. the Bucs. Something that may ease fans concerns a bit is the fact that their very best offensive game came against the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants and a darn good one came a week later vs. Detroit that saw them go up 21-3 before they started sitting on their lead. The players keep saying it’s a different attitude and feeling than year’s past and here’s hoping that the clunker offense is gone for good.
Will the Giants/Broncos or the Panthers/Bucs Defense Show Up?
Although being a touch more consistent than the offense, the defense has had it’s ups and downs as well. They came to be known as the elite QB killing defense that saw them intercept the Manning brothers and Drew Brees 10 times, not to mention shutting down Phillip Rivers, Michael Vick, and Tony Romo. But they’ve also had their own fair share of issues at times, especially in the run game. Cam Newton had his way both times with the Falcons defense, especially the second time in Charlotte which was arguably one of the best games of his career. Josh Freeman looked like Superman in the last game and Drew Brees put up plenty of points the first time in New Orleans.
Asante's Leadership Will Be Key (AJC)
They’ve generally done pretty good against the pass, but they’ve had major issues at stopping the run at times. They stopped Doug Martin the first time, only to get shredded the second. Alfred Morris ran for over 100 yards, even though he was held to to no TDs. Cam Newton and the Panthers running backs racked up yards like it was going out of style and they even had major problems with Saints running backs, namely Chris Ivory. Although they’ve done light years better in the takeaway department, they’ve only marginally better in the pass rush. The Falcons defense will have their hands full which ever team they play first, be it Russell Wilson / Marshawn Lynch, Robert Griffin III / Alfred Morris, or Christian Ponder / Adrian Peterson. Birds fans are hoping that the Magician Mike Nolan has saved his best for last.
Bird Cager’s Playoff Turn
1) Playoff Push — Has the time finally come to bust the playoff hump once and for all?
2) What things are you looking for as the Falcons come out next Sunday?
3) Do you genuinely feel that lessons have been learned by Mike Smith?
4) What to make of momentum: reality or myth?
5) Nervous, anxious, or confident for playoff game?
6) Are Falcons biggest underdogs in all of playoffs?
7) Which offense do you think will show up: stellar or clunker?
8.) Will the defense be ready to stop the run?
9) Preference of who to play on Sunday?
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670 comments Add your comment
JB Falcon
January 5th, 2013
9:24 pm
Got some blind ref’s in this game, unless it is legal for the WR to shove the DB to the ground and then catch the pass. Sounds like WWE.
Unca' Bob
January 5th, 2013
9:25 pm
Looks like the winner of the Skins Hawks game. Welcome to the ATL.
Big Lou
January 5th, 2013
9:27 pm
God. Webb sucks! He throws like Tebow.
Big Lou
January 5th, 2013
9:30 pm
UB
You’re right. Whoever the Falcons get… it’s gonna be a good game!
Dee
January 5th, 2013
9:30 pm
Big Lou, you are correct…Webb is not very good at throwing the football…..Vikings need a miracle.
JB Falcon
January 5th, 2013
9:31 pm
UB, looks like it. Either one ain’t gonna like the trip home.
Mike
January 5th, 2013
9:33 pm
There isn’t any better pass protection when the defense has absolutely no respect for your passing game. Because Webb can run ore game they were comparing him to RG3. Sell out to stop the run against Washington and RG3 & Garçon will light you up.
Matty Bicep
January 5th, 2013
9:34 pm
No way this guy beats Aaron Rogers in the playoffs….Actually, I will be insulted if he does.
Arno
January 5th, 2013
9:53 pm
Outrageous non-call on that o pass interference before the half. I’m sure Roddy would love to have that kind of leeway.
Big Ray
January 5th, 2013
10:10 pm
Vikings have no chance with Webb back there. Inaccurate as hell.
Big Ray
January 5th, 2013
10:13 pm
Meh….barring a major collapse by the Packers, this one is over.
I’ll be watching the matchup tomorrow rather closely.
Mike
January 5th, 2013
10:22 pm
AP should have dropped one more spot in the 07 draft! He put the Vikes on his back and carried them to the playoffs.
Matty Bicep
January 5th, 2013
10:39 pm
Yea, AP ain’t quit 21 down.
falcon21
January 5th, 2013
10:51 pm
This is how you win a playoff game Coach Smith, I hope you are watching.
JC
January 5th, 2013
11:13 pm
Just to correct the article, the Steelers were the 6th seed wild card from the AFC, not the 3rd seed divisional champs…
JC
January 5th, 2013
11:13 pm
Just to correct the article, in 2005, the Steelers were the 6th seed wild card from the AFC, not the 3rd seed divisional champs…
Birdman
January 5th, 2013
11:41 pm
This Game tonight is a perfect example of what it would be like if Matt Ryan went down and the Falcons back up came in.
Rodgers and the Pack got a huge break With the Vikes QB out
DHunt
January 6th, 2013
12:23 am
1) It’s way past time for the Falcons to take it to the next level. They’ve had the talent in place for a while, and with the new coordinators, it’s time to take it to the next level.
2) Falcons cannot take any team for granted. They have to play like the team on the other side of the ball is top tier, and they have to do it for the entire game. When they have done that this year, the results have been nothing but spectacular.
3) Coach Smith doesn’t usually make the same mistakes. He might make some new ones, but he hasn’t shown regression tendencies in the five winning seasons he has graced us with. There is no reason to believe that he won’t do everything in his power to have the Falcons ready to win thhe next three times they hit the field this month.
4) I think in game momentum is far more relevant than a winning streak. In fact winning streaks can just as easily make a team complacent. The Falcons have the type of team that can shift the momentum in their favor, on offense or defense, and that’s yet another good thing to have in your favor in the playoffs.
5) It’s time, and really past time, to have some faith in this team. The past playoffs notwithstanding, I know they are going to come out and give it their all. That’s all anyone can ask for, and that’s been more than enough almost every time they’ve done it. That should inspire plenty of confidence in all Falcons fans. Why wander around with a dark cloud on your thoughts for the whole week leading up to the first playoff game? If you wasted time being nervous, anxious, negative, or pessimistic about this team all year, you missed out on a great season of good vibrations.
6) Only the talking heads see the Falcons as underdogs. I’m sure that is not the vibe inside the team, nor should it be the vibe anywhere in Atlanta. Everybody has something to prove in the playoffs.
7) It would surely be nice to see the home team humming along on all cylinders in the Dome next Sunday. When the offense is on point, this team is virtually unstoppable. But if there are a couple of bumps in the road, this team has also shown it’s ability to turn it on and turn it up when it’s crunch time. We’ll either run away with the game, or we will be in it until the final second.
8.) When it mattered most, the Falcons stepped up and stopped the run. Even the backs that put up good numbers typically did it based on a few big plays (that rarely resulted in touchdowns) but were held in check for the majority of the time. Nolan can and will make the needed adjustments, even during a game. Morris and Lynch will not be the reason the Falcons don’t advance.
9) The Falcons offense in top form is more than a match for either the Redskins or the Seahawks. The Seahawks defense is better, so given the choice, I’d rather see the Redskins. Both are read option teams and the Falcons have the defensive line, and linebacker corps to handle that. Full strength and well rested, neither the Seahawks or the Skins can beat us through the air. For that matter, neither can the 49er’s. And the road to the Superbowl goes through the Thriller Dome this year. Whatever punks jump up will get beat down.
FALCONS RISE UP!
Paddy O
January 6th, 2013
12:54 am
well, the bengals/texans game was painful to watch. If I’m a Vikings fan, I wasn Fraziers head on a platter. Once Joe Webb trotted onto the field, you knew passing was not going to be his forte. If I was a Vegas better, i want Frazier fined about $250,000 for the BS he pulled. I think I’m pulling for the Skins – in a nail biter where RG3 slightly reinjures his knee and can’t play next week.
Paddy O
January 6th, 2013
1:09 am
a gunfight without bullets. lol. I am hoping whomever is our opponent, we come out and score on our first possession, and that those are the first points of the game. If I see us trot the Sta Puft man out on the first play of our first possession, or really anytime during our first possession up until we are within 5 yards of the goal line, I will be miffed and seriously worried. Anybody else see the Viking offense getting bottled up by running even the great Adrian Peterson between the tackles repeatedly for gains of less than 2 yards? Didn’t Musgrave cut his teeth under MM? Glad to see Jenkins score.
Paddy O
January 6th, 2013
1:13 am
dhunt – don’t know about that regression assertion regarding HC MS. I’ve seen him repeatedly try a 4th and run with zero success. Mr. Frazier sounded just a bit too overconfident that with Webb, the Vikes would advance. Without Ponder, the D could focus on stuffing Peterson – and 99 yards qualifies as stuffing – when there is no passing. If Ponder could throw the ball 20 yards, he should have been in there – injury be dammed.
trademark
January 6th, 2013
5:58 am
Call me crazy, but I don’t want Washington minus anyone, or Seattle full-tilt. No excuses by the media once we beat one of those teams, no chance for them to slime around it. We need to beat them on Playoff terms, straight up, or we really don’t deserve it. I think the Falcons have answered every single challenge thrown their way this year, and this is going to be another step in that direction.
Big Ray
January 6th, 2013
6:18 am
Agreed with trademark .
Wabe
January 6th, 2013
7:57 am
Man, I was actually looking forward to that Vikings-Packers game. And it turned out ot be a complete waste of time…
For a minute, I actually thought Webb could make things even tougher for the Packers because of his mobility. I figured he could open up more holes for AP because the defense has to contain him as well. And man, was I wrong…
So now the Vikings are out of the way, today’s game is the one to watch. Should be a good game. Seattle’s run defense is vulnerable. They actually rank in the back-half of the league vs. the run. That’s not good because everything Washington does is predicated on running the football. Should be an interesting matchup. We’ll see what both teams bring to the table.
I hear a lot of fans saying they’d rather play Washington over Seattle. I could care less who we play, but if we actually got the chance to choose an opponent, I’d agree with those who say that. But, I think it’s important to realize this ain’t the same Washington team we shut down early in the season. Their offense has evolved, as has their QB. They’re a lot better than they were when we played them.
But, the real question is, are we? Have we grown throughout the course of the season? After that Giants game, I felt we were finally kickin’ it up a gear. I liked what I saw @ DET as well. The game vs. Tampa Bay might’ve made some folks pause, and it’s understandable because it was another performance that we see out of these guys too often. But, I’m gonna give them the benefit of the doubt and just chalk it up to a lack of motivation with nothing really to play for.
A week away. Can’t wait.
LDawg
January 6th, 2013
9:05 am
Agree with Mike Franklin all the way!!!! We never lose two games in a row – especially in the Dome. No one gives us props, even when we intercept the elite QBs 10 times! The “great” Peyton Manning was 0-3 in the playoffs as well – and look where he is now. It is our time!!!! Bring on the playoffs!!!
Hamad Meander
January 6th, 2013
9:40 am
As much as I agree that there is no excuse for losing next Sunday’s playoff game at home, I don’t put a lot of weight behind the previous playoff losses. This is a different team with better coaching and better players than we’ve had in the past. Also, the teams we lost to were on a roll and in some cases, just plain better than we were. The Cardinals had Kurt Warner and we had a rookie QB and a middle linebacker that didn’t know where the first down line was. The Packers (I was at this game) benefited from two very poor passes by Matt Ryan and had a better team overall without a better regular season record. The Giants had a better team, better pass rush, and were the start of a big roll through the playoffs. Again, their record wasn’t as good as ours, but they were a better team.
This year, we were better than most of the teams in the NFL thoughout the season. We are better than Seattle and Washington, but both of these teams are playing very good football. If we lose again this year, it will be because we didn’t play well, because we shouldn’t be overmatched.
What would I like to see in this game? Lots of Matt Ryan in hurry-up shotgun and not a lot of Michael Turner running for 1 or 2 yards. Our strength is passing the ball and our weakness is running it – so obviously, don’t bother trying to ‘establish’ the run.
waynester
January 6th, 2013
10:25 am
Falcon fan’s fantasy post season:
Draw WASH, pay back Shanahan for SB loss
host GB, pay them back for playoffs 2 years ago
face DEN in SB,win convincingly, sweet karmic balance righted
retain all our coaches, re-sign Ryan creating cap space, bat .1000 in draft and FA, stay healthy, repeat….
Arno
January 6th, 2013
10:30 am
First things I will be checking:
– How well is Ryan seeing the field?
– How fast are our RBs hitting the LOS?
– How well are we tackling?
Dhunt says don’t be nervous– enjoy. That’s a good word. I’m trying to make my nerves co-operate!
Joshua malavenda
January 6th, 2013
11:42 am
I have three words for the divisional playoff round especially if we play Seattle.
Stop the run
If we can Stop the run and put all the pressure on r wilson or rg3 to throw the ball we will win the game.
Nolan’s disguised coverage will shut down the elite qbs that’s already has been proven over the season.
Like one of cage family already said if we make it past the divisional playoff round we will go to the Super Bowl I believe that also
My super bowl prediction is this falcons vs patriots for a billy b vs td reunion.
D3
January 6th, 2013
11:43 am
JC — Thanks. When I looked at Pro-Football-Reference.com, they had the Steelers listed atop the AFC North. Must’ve been a tie-breaker somewhere in there.
Matty Bicep
January 6th, 2013
11:55 am
Upset of the weekend right here. I think the Colts might win this game.
Big Lou
January 6th, 2013
11:57 am
Paddy O
Never wish injuries on anyone–bad karma. Yet, it’s not like Spoon can’t take care of him in the playoffs.
Big Lou
January 6th, 2013
11:59 am
I have a feeling the Colts are gonna get destroyed, actually. I think my 10 points will cover on my bet.
Greg Mendel
January 6th, 2013
11:59 am
DHunt made some good points above. On the same line of thought, I’ll add this:
“No plan survives contact with the enemy” — Helmuth von Moltke
Old Helmuth wasn’t a football coach, but he got that right. Both teams are going to show up with plans next week, but plans are going to fall apart to some extent. Making adjustments will be critical, and the correct adjustments have to be made quickly. I’d offer that the players will have to adjust faster than the coaches, and they’ll need to jump on every opportunity and mistake.
Smith plays a fundamentally cautious game (Smittyball?), an approach I don’t dismiss easily, because it reduces penalties and turnovers, both of which can be self-inflicted game changers. I do think, however, Smith needs to have the Falcons play the next game closer to that fine line between “bold” and “crazy.”
As DHunt and others have noted, this Falcons team deserves confidence from coaches and fans. Nolan’s defense can beat anybody. Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez want a playoff win more than any other Falcons. Even if the best game plan comes apart, I think the players will step up, and if not, Ryan and Gonzo will win the game by themselves if necessary.
My bottom line: Falcons win. It may be ugly, and they may lose the following game, but I think they’ll find a way to win, no matter what, and no matter who they play.
darrell starks
January 6th, 2013
12:29 pm
My super bowl predictions at beginning of the season where Texans VS. Packers.
Hope Falcons can spoil that.
GO FALCONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
darrell starks
January 6th, 2013
12:36 pm
D3, We had a red out 2 years ago wasn’t timidating against Packers.
I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A BLACKOUT NEXT SUNDAY.
GO FALCONS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Big Ray
January 6th, 2013
12:58 pm
Greg Mendel ,
Very good points, sir…
Big Lou
January 6th, 2013
1:15 pm
Lol
Horrible PI call…
Big Lou
January 6th, 2013
1:17 pm
Ray Rice fumbles. Sigh.
Ravens want to make things interesting, I guess.
Matty Bicep
January 6th, 2013
1:26 pm
As good as RG3 and Wilson have been, Luck is the best.
Big Ray
January 6th, 2013
1:27 pm
Indy is moving the ball okay against Baltimore so far, even though it’s tough going.
tdawgmom
January 6th, 2013
1:45 pm
Great post, D-3. I’m worried, but hopeful. We certainly have the talent to win, but do we have the mental toughness? We will see. Thanks for a great column.
Big Lou
January 6th, 2013
1:45 pm
Hey diddle-diddle, Ray Rice up the middle.
Greg Mendel
January 6th, 2013
1:47 pm
Thanks, Big Ray. The other quote I remembered is “hit ‘em where they ain’t” by Willie von Keeler.
I don’t know enough about passing routes and coverage to make any suggestions, but it seems to me Julio and Roddy ought to be getting open — “where they ain’t” — more often than they have. Can’t see much on TV anyway, so I don’t know what’s going on downfield. All I have is an impression that our passing game, good as it is, could be better.
Big Lou
January 6th, 2013
1:57 pm
If we had a better interior Oline, there could be more crossing patterns.
Big Lou
January 6th, 2013
2:03 pm
I’m impressed by the blitz packages of the Colts. I hope the Falcons have similar ways to disrupt the QB. Mike Nolan should have some great things cooked up.
falcon21
January 6th, 2013
2:06 pm
After 5 years, Joe Flacco still looks like a rookie.
Unca' Bob
January 6th, 2013
2:12 pm
falcon21,
MR2 and flacko are no longer joined at the hip.
falcon21
January 6th, 2013
2:14 pm
Very true Unca’ Bob.
Big Lou
January 6th, 2013
2:20 pm
Rice is one heck of a runner.