Atlanta Falcons: Birds Take on Bucs as Playoffs Await
Falcons vs. Bucs in Season Finale
Sit or Play? (Rick Ostentoski/AP)
How Much Do Starters Play?
That’s the big question as today’s game looms. It’s a very tough call in many regards. Do the Falcons keep their starters in for most of the game in hoping to keep the momentum going that they’ve built up the past few games as they head into an almost two week wait for the playoffs? Or do they pull their starters early on to prevent injuries and let many of the players completely heal? It’s a tough catch-22, but this much is known: Head Coach Mike Smith has got to find some way to have this team better prepared than the last time he achieved a first round bye. The Debacle in the Dome is still fairly fresh in fans mind and it all starts with Smith to have this team more prepared, more focused, and ready to play on a much higher level than 2010.
What was Smith’s Plan?
Yep, this is About Right (AJC)
As fellow Cage Member Arno said, if you say that you’re going to play to win, than you better be prepared to play lights out. To be fair, it was an extremely difficult game to manage. The Falcons had already locked up home-field advantage and the game literally meant nothing. Normal thought would have said to rest the starters, put the backups in, and try to win the game. But at the same time, perhaps remembering the Debacle from 2 years ago, Smith wanted to keep the momentum that had been built up the past two weeks blowing out the defending champs and beating the Lions pretty soundly on the road.
However, it became painfully apparent that the players weren’t focused and gameplan was pitifully weak. Add to that the fact that on consecutive plays, two of the Falcons defensive starters suffered injuries, both Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel, and it didn’t seem to make sense why the starters were still in the game well into the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan was taking shots left and right and even John Abraham got injured and had to be carted off the field. Using 20/20 hindsight vision, it’s a little unfair to say that Smith had the wrong strategy all along, but it seemed as though Smith wanted the best of both worlds: get momentum while also not putting in 100% effort and focus. It also seems that Smith really didn’t have a backup plan in case things didn’t go as planned (see injuries to key starters). Hopefully, the injuries aren’t serious and the Falcons can use this as motivation to remember how well they need to prepare to get this first playoff win.
Will Over-reliance on Turner Cost in Playoffs?
First of all, the normal complaint about Turner getting way more carries than any other running back doesn’t hold weight. Turner got 6 carries, Rodgers got 5 carries, and Snelling got 3 carries. That breaks down very good percentage wise in terms of what most fans hope to see: Turner (43%), Rodgers (36%), and Snelling (21%). Both Turner and Rodgers had long runs of almost exactly the same, with Turner netting a 17 yard run and Rodgers getting a 16 yard run. Both of the long runs heavily inflated both players yards per carry: Rodgers – 5.6 and Turner – 3. If you dig down a little further, however, the production is still out of whack.
If you take out each of their long runs, Rodgers ypc goes down to 3 yards per carry, but Turner’s goes down to 0.2 yards per carry. Yes, 2 tenths, not 2 yards. It’s hard to use this game as a good indicator, but it’s a microcosm of the entire season. Rodgers, and it could be argued even Snelling, simply fit better and are more productive in the Falcons new offense. What should make fans think that anything will change once the playoffs hit when over a 16 game span not much has really changed at all. The fear is that the coaches, namely Mike Smith, will over rely on Turner yet again and it will cost the Falcons at the very worst time.
Injury Watch
Awful Injury (AJC)
Hopefully, none of the injuries are too serious, but fans wanted to scream when they started seeing not one, not two, but three defensive starters go down with injuries. First it was Dunta Robinson being taken to the locker room. Then it was Asante Samuel re-injuring his shoulder that’s been popping up all year. And to top it off, arguably the most important cog to the defense, John Abraham, goes down with an ankle injury and has to be carted off the field.
If for some reason these injuries play a role in the playoffs, Smith will get plenty of criticism in a meaningless game. Even though he wasn’t injured, Matt Ryan took his fair share of brutal hits when the OL decided to mentally stay at home on the couch. If nothing else, the two weeks should allow time for the Falcons to be the healthiest they’ve had all year. Hopefully, the players nicked up in the Bucs game will be back to good and William Moore, who’s missed the last 4 games, will be ready to go as well.
Have Lessons Been Learned?
The coaching staff has to be busy at work getting as much game-planning and research on the three teams they know they’ll face between the Seahawks, Vikings, and Redskins. The coaching staff and players basically have a bye week and they need to use it accordingly. It may be tough to do extensive research on 3 teams, but they can be doing some. The biggest thing that this playoff game boils down to is whether or not Head Coach Mike Smith has learned the lessons from his first 3 trips to the playoffs, all ending in losses. Ironically enough, the Falcons best outing was the first one where he and Matt Ryan were rookies.
He’s had every experience imaginable including two wild card games on the road and one home-field advantage #1 seed with a bye week. There was a thought among many fans that Smith played it way too lackadaisical and even soft. There were clips of the players with shorts and t-shirts and laughing and having a good time at practice. Maybe that’s unfair using 20/20 hindsight form the Debacle in the Dome, but it surely didn’t help.
Falcons Better Shore Up their Run Defense
HD One Bright Spot (AJC)
The Falcons are set to play either the Vikings, Seahawks, or Redskins in less than 2 weeks. All of them have excellent running backs and a playmaker at quarterback who is extremely mobile. In fact, all of the teams remaining in the playoffs have mobile QBs and all except the Packers also have a good running game to complement as well. They have bowed their necks when they’ve needed to, shutting down Doug Martin the first time, holding Alred Morris to no touchdowns, holding Ryan Matthews and Lesean McCoy in check.
However, they’ve also seen times where they’ve given up a ton of yards as well, namely Cam Newton, the Panthers, the Saints first game, among several others. They actually did a good job of shutting down Robert Griffin III the first time, but he’s had a lot more seasoning since then. Then of course there’s the best running back in the game in Adrian Peterson and Pro Bowler Marshawn Lynch. Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, and Christian Ponder are all out there as well. Ironically, the Falcons are one of the worst remaining rushing teams left in the NFC. The defensive line, linebackers, and all the secondary better be working hard on tackling and stopping the run, because otherwise, it will be another short off-season.
Enjoy and Go Falcons!!!!
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620 comments Add your comment
JJ
December 31st, 2012
3:55 pm
BL
Winnerwinner chicken dinner!!!
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
3:59 pm
Why Lovie smith? His teams are too streaky. I can t put it on talent when they look like the best team in the nfl one week, them them worst the next. We are living proof that you can be consistent with mediocre O line talent, even Sam baker can get is someone’s way.
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
4:04 pm
Smitty accomplished what Lovie and whizz did, lost to the sb champs, we just had the bad luck of playing them a little earlier in the playoffs. Actually, Smitty did it twice.
falcon21
December 31st, 2012
4:05 pm
I think Petrino has already hired at Western Kentucky.
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
4:18 pm
I know Petrino has a job, what I don’t think that means much to him if the NFL came calling. which it won, ever. He can’t deal with men.
JJ
December 31st, 2012
4:23 pm
We all know Coach Smith isnt going anywhere but if we get embarrased in 2 weeks next yr may be his last. Our OL coach and special teams coach should be red hot right about now.
About to head out and pick up mom for our annual ny eve dinner(Outback…yum) and get back before the crazys get out. Be safe on amateur night, I graduated to professional long time ago!
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
4:27 pm
Yea, hopefully Smitty puts this discussion to rest once and for all. Be careful out there.
Eric C.
December 31st, 2012
4:44 pm
Greg Mendel —- “I know this sounds crazy, but I’ve wondered what would happen if he pitched the ball back to Ryan at the last moment (hour?). Ryan could throw to anybody still standing up.”
Haha, you are probably right.
On another note, I think that is why “eligible 79″ is so effective.
Wabe
December 31st, 2012
5:05 pm
Lovie Smith deserved to be canned.
I have a lot of family out in Chicago, and during football season, we have the usual back and forths about Falcons vs. Bears. But, honestly, those guys in Chicago aren’t too hot about Lovie Smith. And the facts should back that up.
I read somewhere that the Bears had made the playoffs only like 3 of 9 years in Lovie’s tenure there, and that was prior to this season if I’m not mistaken. One of my cousins had told me that their record over Lovie’s tenure vs. teams under .500 was stellar, but they were as mediocre as it gets – way under .500 – against good teams [teams over .500]. They’ve lost to the Packers like 5 times in a row. And this season, there’s really no excuse for not making the playoffs. They started off 7-1 and in the drivers seat to win the NFC North, but they finish 3rd out of 4. Makes no sense.
I’d say they have more talent on their roster than the Vikings do, but the Vikings still managed to beat them out for a playoff spot. If you look at Chicago this season, they played the Texans, Niners, Seahawks, Packers twice, Vikings twice, Colts, and the Cowboys. That’s 9 games. They went 3-6 against those teams.
3-6 against teams above .500 with their only wins coming against the Colts [who despite their record clearly aren't an elite team], the Vikings [same thing applies], and the Cowboys [who are as inconsistent as can be]. Other than those 3 games, they didn’t win vs. anybody worth mentioning.
He deserved to go.
LRD
December 31st, 2012
5:09 pm
Smitty: Love the guy.. but honestly.. if I am sitting in the GA Dome and we are losing yet again in the first round and if it is a debacle like we had against green bay, then I will have no choice but to hop on the new coach bandwagon….
Big Lou
December 31st, 2012
5:14 pm
http://www.atlantafalcons.com/media-lounge/videos/Good-News-on-Injury-Front/29d529c3-5122-450b-bbab-ca85e6281a71
Abraham and Dunta will be back for the playoff game, per Mike Smith. It looks like we will have a full and healthy roster going into the week of Jan. 13th. Breathe easy, fans. Let’s see what the Falcons are made of. Can’t wait to see Owens(can’t believe I said that), and Moore back.
I am glad he is going to have practices during the bye week. Old man is learning. Let’s hope it produces in the playoffs.
Chop Buster
December 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
BL (3:53) – I can live with that as well. LOL
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
5:17 pm
Well, we are either playing a rookie QB, or Christian Ponder. I have tried ease the pain our playoff losses by rationalizing that our losses were to teams that had QBs who had 4 rings, and 6 SB appearances between them. That said, I don’t even like to think about the consequences of losing again, it is just bad karma.
Chop Buster
December 31st, 2012
5:19 pm
But then again Lovie got fired for a reason…he could never do much of anything. I like the Andy Reid as OC if Koetter jets–they both have similar offensive philosophies.
Big Lou
December 31st, 2012
5:28 pm
Chop.
Unless he gets another head coach gig. But, yeah, he would bring the west coast offense to ATL. People would love that and it would fit our offensive line.
—————-
As for Lovie Smith,
Love the guy… but, if we are saying fire Mike Smith after three playoff losses in a row, then why keep a guy who hasn’t even made the playoffs the past 5/6 years.
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
5:28 pm
In past 13 years, 26 teams have been to the Superbowl, a QB named Manning, Rothisburger, Brady or Warner have been the QB of 15 of those teams, and won 8 of them. I don’t care about the past, the new era of QBs is coming upon us, Ryan needs to get his name on the new generation list.
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
5:31 pm
I would be surprised if Andy Reid does not get a HC job, only reason I could possibly imagine is if teams think he needs a year off, especially after his son passed away. I would not hire him, I agree that the guy does need a year to recharge, he’s been running hard for a long time. I am not sure if he would take a OC job to be honest.
Chop Buster
December 31st, 2012
6:07 pm
Wow…KC, Browns and Eagles all set to interview Koetter. Seems like everyone wants Falcons coaches all of a sudden. LOL
Chop Buster
December 31st, 2012
6:08 pm
And…I don’t think we as Falcon fans have gotten the entire picture of what Dirk could do with this offense. After all, they did use 80-90% of the old playbook this year.
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
6:11 pm
Yep, first MM, now Koetter, all part of the Smitty Tree. David Caldwell, an Atlanta scout looking is getting mention as a GM.
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
6:13 pm
Chop, not fair, go back an look at the drive in the 2nd half of the Giants game, probably the only time I think Smitty thought he really needed to open the playbook to put a game away.
Matty Bicep
December 31st, 2012
6:22 pm
Say what you want about Welcome Back, but nobody was knocking on his door last year to be a HC. People in the NFL saw something out of the guy this year that did not see before, and if they felt he was just running Smitty’s playbook.
Sportaree
December 31st, 2012
7:21 pm
Looks like the Eagles will interview the Falcons OC and DC this week.
falcon21
December 31st, 2012
7:47 pm
I’m not a Tech fan at all but I will give them credit. They played one hell of a game today to beat USC and the Refs.
Geo
December 31st, 2012
7:58 pm
“fact is, I don’t thing he [Turner] touched the ball in the first half, and they scored 3′pts.”
Matty, give it up, man. He did and lost yards. Don’t just spew junk if you really want to make some Turner argument.
Arno
December 31st, 2012
7:59 pm
Apparently Lane Kiffin and his beach boys don’t like El Paso so much. Local bloggers are quite pleased Tech ran them out of town.
Yahoo Sports: USC shows up an hour late for bowl dinner, Trojans player cusses El Paso very classy, USC
By Frank Schwab / Yahoo Sports
Posted: 12/28/2012 09:58:09 AM MST
At every bowl game, there are events for each team to attend. The committees that put on the bowls normally bend over backwards for the teams, to ensure they have a great bowl experience. The people responsible for the bowls work tremendously hard at planning executing such things. That’s not always easy with more a couple hundred people traveling with the teams.
And, one of the few requirements of the teams is that they show up. USC apparently believes it is too good to follow this one requirement.
Last night, Duke Keith of the El Paso Times tweeted that USC was an hour late for the Sheriff’s Posse Dinner, so Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson took his team and left. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported the obvious, that the Yellow Jackets were apparently not pleased at the snub. The AJC and Los Angeles Daily News reported that the Trojans were actually 90 minutes late for the dinner.
falcon21
December 31st, 2012
8:08 pm
Arno, I did see that today, classless Lane Kiffin.
Geo
December 31st, 2012
8:11 pm
Arno, great story-behind-the-story reporting! Thanks.
Birdman
December 31st, 2012
8:55 pm
Good Evening Cager’s
I hope you have all had a great year .!!!!!
One more Almost gone . Man do they go fast the older you get .
Looks like we may have to start over with coordinators next year . Man I would really hate to see them go but they are on the Market . That could leave us in a bad spot guy’s next season But hats of to them if they land a better job
Great Job by the Yellow Jackets today. Now it’s time to see our Birds Fly High and win in the playoffs . Great to know that Abe and D R are going to be OK .We need them.!!
CAGE GOD BLESS . AND HAPPY NEW YEAR
Birdman
December 31st, 2012
8:58 pm
D3
Thank you Man for another great Year . Bless you Brother For all your hard work !!
falcon21
January 1st, 2013
12:00 am
HAPPY NEW YEAR CAGE!!!
Wings
January 1st, 2013
12:45 am
This one statement says and confirms everything all have said about HC Smith. JJ posted it from another blog.
Again, Smith is a nice guy, I like him but he can’t be very smart in that he kept MaLarky for four seasons.
JJ
January 1st, 2013
7:51 am
Happy New Yr Cage, May this be our yr to finally win it all.
Go Dawgs!
Wabe
January 1st, 2013
8:17 am
Just caught D.Led’s article about Smitty changing up his bye-week approach this time around.
I actually liked what I read. They seem more tuned in, more focused, and intent on cleaning some things up.
4 days of practice this week. Smitty said rather than emulate a scheme of an opponent, it’ll be more ‘Falcon on Falcon’ time. He said he wanted to work on the fundamentals of blocking and tackling, both of which have needed work all season, so it’s good to see them use the extra time to try and improve upon it.
I just like the vibes coming out of the Branch. If I’m Mike Nolan, I’m getting ready for an unconventional offense. Mobile QB with a stud back. Both the Skins and Seattle have that. I think we’ll play the winner of that game, and they do both have some similarities to their game. Tackling will be huge, so it’s good to see them stressing that.
All in all, good vibes coming out of the Branch. Stay focused, and stay sharp.
Wabe
January 1st, 2013
8:26 am
And it’s looking like the names on Atlanta’s staff are the hottest in the NFL at the moment…
It would really suck not to have this staff in place for at least multiple seasons.
Between the two, I’d rather keep Mike Nolan. It’d be very difficult, actually downright impossible, to find another coordinator as skilled as Mike Nolan. Dude’s a genius.
BobbyDawg
January 1st, 2013
8:52 am
Happy New Year everybody! I’ll be looking forward to all the great reading in the upcoming year that all of my cage friends provide. I sure hope our Birds are ready to put on their best run defense. Strong running is headed our way regardless of who we play next.
GO FALCONS
Unca' Bob
January 1st, 2013
8:56 am
Wabe,
Agree on Nolan. Also, if I were TD, I’m droping a note to N Turner about our could be vacant OC position.
D3
January 1st, 2013
10:21 am
HAPPY NEW YEAR CAGE FAMILY!
Good article from DLed that Wabe mentioned………
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2013/01/01/atlanta-falcons-smith-to-ramp-up-bye-week-practices/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_falcons_blog
“We probably thought back then like we arrived,” Falcons running back Michael Turner said. “We thought we were better than we were. We didn’t approach the week like we should have, looking back on it. Hopefully we learn from that mistake and will be ready to roll.”
It starts with more work days this time around.
After the Falcons defeated the Panthers in the final regular-season game of 2010, players didn’t have to report to Flowery Branch for practice until Thursday, four days after the game. They then then had the next weekend off.
No wonder we got absolutely humiliated in the Debacle in the Dome. Hell, we’re lucky it wasn’t 60+ points for goodness sake. This article is music to my ears, but Smitty not’s always the best at following through on his proclamations (see Tampa Bay game).
waynester
January 1st, 2013
10:31 am
Dear Coach Smith,
Thanks for another awesome season and being willing to admit that what we’ve done previously in the playoffs hasn’t worked. In that vein, I’d like to suggest that you “ask” your players to stay off the media interviews and “persuade” the tweeters to knock it off for the next month. I’ve noted a distinct correlation between players’ media appearances and mental letdowns the following weekend. You frequently say that you need “laser focus” during a week of practice and the media attention is too big of a distraction to tolerate with the stakes this high. You’ve already got the guys focused on fundamentals–let’s keep them that way and off the media….
respectfully,
a fan
Arno
January 1st, 2013
10:35 am
> Happy New Year Cage <
Given TB was filler game, it did not have to be a wasted game. DeCoud admitted his part in the fail. Gonzo didn’t dismiss the loss. He said they could learn from it. So nobody’s freaking out about it– and it could be for the best if it reminds them AGAIN that they haven’t arrived, if it energizes the upcoming preparations. As DeCoud said, “We just have to be mature.”
Chop Buster
January 1st, 2013
10:48 am
Happy New Year Cage!!! May God’s Blessing be upon you and your family.
Wings
January 1st, 2013
10:51 am
D3 – “This article is music to my ears, but Smitty not’s always the best at following through on his proclamations (see Tampa Bay game).”
The problem is HC Smith doesn’t know what he doesn’t know.
Happy New Year D3! Hope everything is getting back to normal for you. You are appreciated by all of us, and we thank you for your hard work going into 2013.
D3
January 1st, 2013
11:16 am
Wings — Thanks a lot man. Yes, definitely getting back in the groove. Finishing up this post as a matter of fact. Happy New Year to you as well!
D3
January 1st, 2013
11:37 am
REST OF THE POST IS FINISHED CAGERS
Just hit refresh and head to the top or hit the following link:
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-fans/2012/12/30/atlanta-falcons-birds-take-on-bucs-as-playoffs-await/
DePlane
January 1st, 2013
11:57 am
It annoys me no end that our coordinators are interviewing for vacancies elsewhere. What a distraction that has to be for the players. Is my coach going to be here next year? They can react in one of two ways….We’ve got to win this thing now…who knows what next year will bring….or focus on the news and take it as a negative, demotivating nagging possibility that the work they’ve put in for these coordinators may just be overlooked by the next coordinator. Not for Long takes on clarified meaning….better get it done now while you have the opportunity to win.
DePlane
January 1st, 2013
12:24 pm
I’m am a temporary Redskins Fan. I don’t wanna see Seattle in the Dome. Looking at who they have beaten kind of brings the message home….SF, MN, GB, NE, CH…they are scary good folks with a D that is stingy with a league leading 15 pts per game given up.
Matty Bicep
January 1st, 2013
1:35 pm
I hope the coaches interviewing give this team a sense of urgency. We might go into next hear down a few critical assistants, not to mention Tony G. Many they realize that opportunities like this won’t keep happening. I don’t care of who play, Seattle is a little scary, does anyone know if they win, do they plan on staying on the east coast? Traveling back and forth from Savannah twice seems a little daunting for a team that likes home cooking.
Matty Bicep
January 1st, 2013
1:35 pm
Savannah-Seattle.
DePlane
January 1st, 2013
2:02 pm
MB, if they win, may the cross country flights wear their azz out please….
DHunt
January 1st, 2013
2:18 pm
I’ll be the overzealous homer for the next two weeks, since there will be no shortage of people who see the Falcons as woefully incapable and over-matched by whatever opponent we may have to face. Never has a number one seed been so overshadowed, not just by the other top seed, but I’ve heard that literally every other team in the NFC playoff field is far and away superior to the Falcons and there’s no chance the Falcons could even begin to compete with the AFC top seeds.
It’s to be expected. After all, the Falcons can’t block anybody. Even though Matt Ryan has taken less sacks than many of the other QB’s remaining in the tournament, we obviously have the worst offensive line of any playoff team, not just this year, maybe ever. Still, Matt Ryan did set career highs in a number of categories, and had his best year statistically since entering the league, but surely he did that in spite of that terrible offensive line. But Baker did play a pretty decent Left Tackle this year, Blalock was his usual stout self, and the other three guys stepped it up at times, so maybe they are capable of not being completely terrible when it really matters.
I’m also hearing that the Falcons have the worst defense of all the playoff teams. Those Falcons do give up yards by the boatload particularly in the run game, have evidently never learned how to tackle, and don’t pressure any QB ever. But somehow their opponents don’t score. Somehow though, that same shaky defense keeps taking the ball away, and has performed superbly against several elite QB’s this year, going an amazing 4 of 5 game stretch without giving up a single passing touchdown. Maybe as bad as they are, they might still manage to play well enough to keep the upcoming playoff game from being a complete blowout, since they managed to do that very thing over a grueling 16 game regular season (giving up 30 or more only twice on the season).
Of course the Falcons coaching is so suspect as to make what the players do virtually a moot point. Those new coordinators aren’t getting it done on game day. Well maybe Nolan is, but that Koetter guy doesn’t seem to get it. Hard to understand why they’ll spend the next few days interviewing for head coaching jobs. Well maybe Koetter is a little better than we’ve had in the past. At least he’s familiar with the screen pass, and occasionally even lets Matt Ryan throw a deep ball. But it won’t matter because ultimately Smitty is going to take over all the offensive and defensive play calls, right? Even though he has said repeatedly that he doesn’t call plays on game day, and as far as I can tell isn’t really responsible for personnel packages on either side of the ball on game day either. Well, even though he’s the winningest coach in Falcon history, that’s like saying he’s the brightest kid on the short bus. He’ll figure out some way to put his bad luck mojo on the Falcons come playoff time. He’s always done it in the past. Except, things just seem to be a bit different overall, with new coordinators, a more mature team, better leadership on the field. That should count for something right? It’s not like it’s the exact same team that lost the last two playoff games.
Well, maybe I’ll be even more optimistic after we see who we will face after the bye week. Once I figure out how in the world we ever got to the point where we get a bye week. Bet Houston, wishes they had a buy week, but they couldn’t win enough games to do it.
I guess