Atlanta Falcons: Birds Take on Bucs as Playoffs Await
Falcons vs. Bucs in Season Finale
Sit or Play? (Rick Ostentoski/AP)
How Much Do Starters Play?
That’s the big question as today’s game looms. It’s a very tough call in many regards. Do the Falcons keep their starters in for most of the game in hoping to keep the momentum going that they’ve built up the past few games as they head into an almost two week wait for the playoffs? Or do they pull their starters early on to prevent injuries and let many of the players completely heal? It’s a tough catch-22, but this much is known: Head Coach Mike Smith has got to find some way to have this team better prepared than the last time he achieved a first round bye. The Debacle in the Dome is still fairly fresh in fans mind and it all starts with Smith to have this team more prepared, more focused, and ready to play on a much higher level than 2010.
What was Smith’s Plan?
Yep, this is About Right (AJC)
As fellow Cage Member Arno said, if you say that you’re going to play to win, than you better be prepared to play lights out. To be fair, it was an extremely difficult game to manage. The Falcons had already locked up home-field advantage and the game literally meant nothing. Normal thought would have said to rest the starters, put the backups in, and try to win the game. But at the same time, perhaps remembering the Debacle from 2 years ago, Smith wanted to keep the momentum that had been built up the past two weeks blowing out the defending champs and beating the Lions pretty soundly on the road.
However, it became painfully apparent that the players weren’t focused and gameplan was pitifully weak. Add to that the fact that on consecutive plays, two of the Falcons defensive starters suffered injuries, both Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel, and it didn’t seem to make sense why the starters were still in the game well into the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan was taking shots left and right and even John Abraham got injured and had to be carted off the field. Using 20/20 hindsight vision, it’s a little unfair to say that Smith had the wrong strategy all along, but it seemed as though Smith wanted the best of both worlds: get momentum while also not putting in 100% effort and focus. It also seems that Smith really didn’t have a backup plan in case things didn’t go as planned (see injuries to key starters). Hopefully, the injuries aren’t serious and the Falcons can use this as motivation to remember how well they need to prepare to get this first playoff win.
Will Over-reliance on Turner Cost in Playoffs?
First of all, the normal complaint about Turner getting way more carries than any other running back doesn’t hold weight. Turner got 6 carries, Rodgers got 5 carries, and Snelling got 3 carries. That breaks down very good percentage wise in terms of what most fans hope to see: Turner (43%), Rodgers (36%), and Snelling (21%). Both Turner and Rodgers had long runs of almost exactly the same, with Turner netting a 17 yard run and Rodgers getting a 16 yard run. Both of the long runs heavily inflated both players yards per carry: Rodgers – 5.6 and Turner – 3. If you dig down a little further, however, the production is still out of whack.
If you take out each of their long runs, Rodgers ypc goes down to 3 yards per carry, but Turner’s goes down to 0.2 yards per carry. Yes, 2 tenths, not 2 yards. It’s hard to use this game as a good indicator, but it’s a microcosm of the entire season. Rodgers, and it could be argued even Snelling, simply fit better and are more productive in the Falcons new offense. What should make fans think that anything will change once the playoffs hit when over a 16 game span not much has really changed at all. The fear is that the coaches, namely Mike Smith, will over rely on Turner yet again and it will cost the Falcons at the very worst time.
Injury Watch
Awful Injury (AJC)
Hopefully, none of the injuries are too serious, but fans wanted to scream when they started seeing not one, not two, but three defensive starters go down with injuries. First it was Dunta Robinson being taken to the locker room. Then it was Asante Samuel re-injuring his shoulder that’s been popping up all year. And to top it off, arguably the most important cog to the defense, John Abraham, goes down with an ankle injury and has to be carted off the field.
If for some reason these injuries play a role in the playoffs, Smith will get plenty of criticism in a meaningless game. Even though he wasn’t injured, Matt Ryan took his fair share of brutal hits when the OL decided to mentally stay at home on the couch. If nothing else, the two weeks should allow time for the Falcons to be the healthiest they’ve had all year. Hopefully, the players nicked up in the Bucs game will be back to good and William Moore, who’s missed the last 4 games, will be ready to go as well.
Have Lessons Been Learned?
The coaching staff has to be busy at work getting as much game-planning and research on the three teams they know they’ll face between the Seahawks, Vikings, and Redskins. The coaching staff and players basically have a bye week and they need to use it accordingly. It may be tough to do extensive research on 3 teams, but they can be doing some. The biggest thing that this playoff game boils down to is whether or not Head Coach Mike Smith has learned the lessons from his first 3 trips to the playoffs, all ending in losses. Ironically enough, the Falcons best outing was the first one where he and Matt Ryan were rookies.
He’s had every experience imaginable including two wild card games on the road and one home-field advantage #1 seed with a bye week. There was a thought among many fans that Smith played it way too lackadaisical and even soft. There were clips of the players with shorts and t-shirts and laughing and having a good time at practice. Maybe that’s unfair using 20/20 hindsight form the Debacle in the Dome, but it surely didn’t help.
Falcons Better Shore Up their Run Defense
HD One Bright Spot (AJC)
The Falcons are set to play either the Vikings, Seahawks, or Redskins in less than 2 weeks. All of them have excellent running backs and a playmaker at quarterback who is extremely mobile. In fact, all of the teams remaining in the playoffs have mobile QBs and all except the Packers also have a good running game to complement as well. They have bowed their necks when they’ve needed to, shutting down Doug Martin the first time, holding Alred Morris to no touchdowns, holding Ryan Matthews and Lesean McCoy in check.
However, they’ve also seen times where they’ve given up a ton of yards as well, namely Cam Newton, the Panthers, the Saints first game, among several others. They actually did a good job of shutting down Robert Griffin III the first time, but he’s had a lot more seasoning since then. Then of course there’s the best running back in the game in Adrian Peterson and Pro Bowler Marshawn Lynch. Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, and Christian Ponder are all out there as well. Ironically, the Falcons are one of the worst remaining rushing teams left in the NFC. The defensive line, linebackers, and all the secondary better be working hard on tackling and stopping the run, because otherwise, it will be another short off-season.
Enjoy and Go Falcons!!!!
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620 comments Add your comment
trademark
January 2nd, 2013
12:06 pm
One more note on Atlanta-
“This is a team unlike any of the past few few we’ve seen come out of Atlanta during the Playoffs. When faced with challenges this year, they’ve answered them. Loudly. They beat every team with a winning record on their schedule, and handed the Giants the worst and most embarrassing loss ever to a defending champion. They broke the New Orleans Mojo and sent more than one team spiraling down out of playoff contention. And, with convincing wins posted over Washington and Denver(the AFC’s) top seed), this team has showed it can not only hang with the big-boys, but bully ‘em up a bit also.”
Big Ray
January 2nd, 2013
12:06 pm
Big Lou,
Nah. Him “bellyaching” about having to try and prepare for four different teams is kinda like me bellyaching about having to cover my own squad, plus the squad that belongs to another Sergeant while he’s on vacation.
I don’t love doing it, but it’s both necessary and inevitable…and it doesn’t affect my personal performance because I ramp up my efforts as opposed to slacking off.
That, and this is probably new territory for Koetter.
I kinda don’t give a rip what he says. I’m focused on what he does .
Geo
January 2nd, 2013
12:17 pm
trademark @ 12:06, good points. They have really proved themselves to be a different, better team than past editions throughout the regular season. They answered every significant challenge. The only remaining question is can they do that when the stakes are highest?
Geo
January 2nd, 2013
12:32 pm
The New York and Detroit games point toward a successful post season, while the Tampa game throws up some red flags, even though it was “meaningless.” What concerns me about the Tampa game is that it follows the blueprint teams have used to beat us in the post season: get physical with the receivers and pressure Ryan. Koetter needs to gameplan the hell out of this. Also, the Falcons should have figured out how to get a yard on the ground by now. They couldn’t, and didn’t even try, in the Tampa game. I hope this doesn’t come back to haunt us again.
Paddy O
January 2nd, 2013
12:37 pm
geo – the only thing about the TB game that bothered me was the lack of a goal. Just what exactly was the goal? We certainly did not try new things out. We did not execute very well. The Game plan offensively stunk. The defense, with the exception of some lousy tackling by DeCoud played fairly well. Why play the starters, at least on defense, for the entire 2nd half? Odd as a 3 dollar bill. That is the only gripe – except for the lousy play making me nervous going into the playoffs. But, we were semi lousy prior to the Giants game, and we shone there. So, it is the Falcons Jekyll and Hyde 2012 season; part deux.
Geo
January 2nd, 2013
12:50 pm
Agree, Paddy O. I know it’s highsight, but I would have given Abe all or most of the game off. The dude is getting old (for a football player) and I don’t think we need to worry about him losing his game-speed edge. I also would not have played Samuel. Guy still needs time to heal his busted arm/shoulder, and he is critical to our D. On offense, I would have also given backups some more time, and worked on the running game, which would help keep Ryan out of harms way. Just not a very smart gameplan for the situation, and no adjustment in-game. I know we will do better in the playoffs, and maybe we can make something positive out of it by using the subpar game for motivation.
Geo
January 2nd, 2013
12:55 pm
DeCoud should be embarrassed with his play against Tampa. That was an inexcusable lack of professionalism. The stuff he put on tape are what people use to support the contention that the Falcons are frauds.
Slant Pattern
January 2nd, 2013
1:11 pm
“First it was a bounty, now there’s a mutiny? Oh, the possibilities of sarcastic wit abound, but either way it’s plain funny to me…” – BR
Great article, Taints tears always cheer me up.
Koetter’s comment? It just reinforces my belief he has alot of learning still to do. Koetter did better than my worst fears but was also short of taking this team’s talent to the edge of it’s potential. Some of that, maybe alot of that is on Smitty, but the fact the exact same defensive strategies that started working in week 5 were not figured out by week 17 is telling. A couple of teams installed option read/ pistol sets in just one year and made the playoffs, expecting a nearly 2 decade veteran like Koetter to figure out Cover 2 and some old school Walsh philosphy should not be asking the impossible. I did see alot of evidence of learning and some damn well crafty adjustments made so I’m ok with him coming back. We will hopefully see him make up for some of Smitty’s faults in the playoffs and maybe he can spend offseason getting better at theory craft/ other philosphies.
JB Falcon
January 2nd, 2013
1:45 pm
trademark, here’s a link from the AJC that has the Falcons as 10th weakest to win the SB. Go figure.
http://www.ajc.com/ap/ap/sports/regular-season-winners-dont-always-make-champions/nTj4c/
trademark
January 2nd, 2013
3:02 pm
Thanks JB, kinda standard this year, huh?
Wabe
January 2nd, 2013
3:26 pm
So Koetter pulled his name out of consideration for head coaching gigs…
Now if we can just keep Nolan around, we’re good.
Arno
January 2nd, 2013
3:46 pm
Eagles interviewing Nolan tonight.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/Eagles_flying_to_Atlanta_to_interview_Nolan_Armstrong_tonight.html
trademark
January 2nd, 2013
4:08 pm
Man, WHAT is this drool-fest over the Broncos??? I just saw three different playoff field rankers have them at the top, not to mention they top every single solitary power ranking out there…..Atlanta has the EXACT same record, their offenses are very comparable yard and point-wise, and their defenses are .6 points away in points allowed….did ANYONE look at the Broncos schedule?? For all of the ENDLESS DIARRHEA we’ve been hearing about the Falcons’ “weak” schedule, the Broncos have also played just 4 TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS, just like us. You want to know the difference? We BEAT ALL OF THOSE TEAMS WE PLAYED, INCLUDING DENVER, while the “allmighty” Broncos were 1-3 IN THOSE GAMES!
WTH??!!! And they wonder why we yell about the lack of respect all of the time. Geeez, I’d lop off an arm just to see the look on their faces and the glazed emptiness in their eyes when they can’t write that the Falcons need to win in the Playoffs to prove anything BS again.
I DARE one of those jerks to go into Flowery Branch and ask the Falcons in PERSON if they think they’re going to waste the #1 seed again. Man-you can feel the heat of that glare already…..
Wings
January 2nd, 2013
6:42 pm
It would seem all of these negative stories would make the players so mad that everything else that occurs would be irrevelant.
Paddy O
January 2nd, 2013
6:53 pm
writers absolutely love Payton Manning, just as they hated Favre and were miffed he kept delaying his retirement – as though he worked for them. Koetter proved the Falcons could run screens. MM could not figure out how to integrate that into his play calling. to me, MM was fairly inept OC, and luckily, the Jags GM was even more inept and hired him – I think they call it the Peter Principle, no? MM did NOT get the most out of our offense. Welcome Back is getting MORE, but not the max. I think Nolan is coming pretty darn close, and, I hope he stays. But, since he is going on the interviews, he obviously still wants a HC job, so – sooner or later he’ll be gone. I think folks really underestimate out talent level.
D3
January 2nd, 2013
8:38 pm
Greetings Cagers! —
It’s nice to see that Koetter will be staying and that he’ll be here for awhile. I really think that with an actual running back that isn’t slow as molasses and the head coach isn’t forcing you to run a sta-puft, than his offense will be even more dynamic. Get oldman McClure out of there, move Konz to C, move Clabo to RG, move Baker to RT, and Holmes to LT and we should light it even more next year, especially if we FINALLY drop Turner and add another RB through the draft to complement Quizz and Snelling. So, even though Koetter looked as bad as Malarkey at times, the offense overall was much better.
Like Big Ray said earlier, I’m betting we lose Nolan. Look what the dude’s done at all the places he’s been in only a year. Even though Singletary and Harbaugh get all the credit for that Niner defense, Nolan helped lay a little of the ground work. I simply think that there’s way too many openings for someone like Nolan not to get a job. He likely has learned lessons from his head coaching days and has been around several head coaches since.
There’s 7 openings, so here’s what I think:
-Andy Reid will fill one of the jobs, looking like Cardinals
-Ken Whisenhunt will get another one, sounds like the Bills
-Probably see Lovie Smith get another shot somewhere
-Sounds like Chip Kelly will be lured
-Even though rumors abound that Saban will be lured back, don’t count it.
-Broncos OC is the hot name and likely he gets one of them.
-That’s still two teams that will hire new coaches, and what better coordinators are out there I ask?
You know Norv Turner, Chan Gailey, Pat Shurmur, and Romeo Crennel will not be getting head coaching jobs again.
If Lovie Smtih or Romeo Crennel don’t get picked up, there’s two names who could take over, but here’s my absolute biggest fear………..
that Mike Smith picks himself up another puppet in the vein of Brian Van Gorder or the ilk. Even though Koetter’s not as bad as Malarkey, that whole “we’re keeping 85% of the playbook the same” garbage reeks of grand puppeteering and we know who’s behind the deal with Turner.
Nolan has saved our tail many times this year, and outside of proven guys like Crennel or Lovie Smith, I think we’re screwed if Nolan leaves.
D3
January 2nd, 2013
8:39 pm
And yet another sign that Harry Douglas needs more touches / targets / catches:
Although Tampa Bay’s Vincent Jackson went deep into the season before dropping his first pass, Atlanta’s Harry Douglas had the NFC South’s best hands in 2012. At least if you go by the numbers.
Douglas finished with a division-high 97.4 catch percentage (receptions divided by receptions plus drops), according to ESPN Stats & Information. Douglas made 38 catches and had only one drop. Douglas was targeted 56 times.
Best hands in the NFC South and barely gets the ball.
Arno
January 2nd, 2013
9:09 pm
Eagles are also supposed to interview Mike McCoy, Broncos OC. Ducks’ Chip Kelly, too. Maybe we dodge the bullet (for now)? Who else beside Eagles said they want to talk with Nolan?
falcon21
January 2nd, 2013
10:02 pm
Have not heard Arno but if I were Buffalo, I would be calling Nolan.
Matty Bicep
January 2nd, 2013
11:00 pm
Falcons Receiver Stats:
HD: 38/59, 10,4 YPC, 64% of balls that are targeted for him.
TG, 93/124, 10.4 YPC, 75%
Roddy…92/143, YPC, 64%
JJ 79/129, 15.2, 61%
HD’s production per attempt is below the other guys, even though he dropped the ball once, that does not tell the entire story…If you don’t get TO the ball, it does not mean you should not have caught it.
He averages what TG does on YPC, and with a completion % of Roddy, who averages 40% more yards per catch.
As I have mentioned, we have to get more production out of HDs spot, that is who they are leaving open with Tampa 2 and brackets on TG…..I am not going to lay it on HD, but I do there there is a chemistry issue between Ryan and HD, or at least it is not as good as the other receivers, hence, Ryan goes to him less.
That said, his best game of the season was against the Giants, so looks like they did scheme to get him to take advantage of his matchups, but I agree, it is key.
Also, if TG does leave, regardless of who we get to play TE, I expect HD to see a lot more ball his way.
Wabe
January 3rd, 2013
8:56 am
I’m not so sure that Nolan gets a gig anywhere…
From what I’ve heard, the only interview he has lined up is with Philly. Most of the teams out there looking for coaches are looking for offensive driven coaches. I would think Philly would be the lone threat to lure Nolan away, mainly because the trouble they’ve had finding a defensive mind over the years since Jim Johnson passed. Sean McDermith, Juan Castillo, and Todd Bowles – those aren’t exactly names that they’re looking for to upgrade that defense. It’s a possibility that they’ll bring in a guy like Nolan to salvage what they’ve invested in guys like Nnamdi and DRC.
Other than Philly though, I don’t see any potential landing spots for him. I think it’s Philly that should all worry us.
trademark
January 3rd, 2013
10:06 am
Hear ya Wabe, the only problem I see with that, is that while he’s a great fit/fix for Philly’s Defense, their offense is anemic. His (Nolan’s) Head Coaching resume from San Francisco doesn’t really speak volumes about his ability to resurrect that phase of their game. He’s only part of the solution. The only thing they would be smart to do there would be to convince him to make a lateral move, from Atlanta to Philly as the Defensive Coordinator, but I don’t see why he would want to do that.
Arno
January 3rd, 2013
10:48 am
Since they need a QB in Philly, they may not be after defensive minded Nolan unless he can possibly get Smith from SanFan. It does not appear Nolan is the front runner– Philly.com’s assessment:
“For now, it remains to be seen which direction the Eagles would go, though Lurie has seemingly favored the up-and-coming bright minds, especially since one of his key decision-makers (Roseman) could be younger (37) than his next head coach. McCoy is among that brand. Nolan is more established – though his track record as a head coach isn’t pretty.”
The whole article:
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/20130103_Eagles_Notebook__Eagles_begin_search_process_by_talking_with_two_Falcons_assistants.html
Matty Bicep
January 3rd, 2013
11:56 am
Nolan and Alex smith reunited…yeeaa, somehow I don’t think the Philly fans are exactly feelin’ it.
But how do you not get behind the up and coming young coach idea?
I heard of this innovative young guy who runs something called an H-back……And can you believe that Dan Henning stayed in the NFL until 2007 until he was 65 years old?
Sometimes, guys are just born to be coordinators.
Another interesting stat, the Atlanta falcons were 29th in yards allowed per play,, just a few notches above New Orleans. and 5th in scoring. What saved their azz?
Turnovers, and we dominated the time of possession, so the other team just did not have the ball enough, or offensive play calling has a lot to do with that.
Call me names, say what you wish, but there is not denying that field position, turnovers, time of possession is what separates winners and losers in the NFL, at least during the regular season, I believe that is proven true.
Can we win with it in the playoffs with it? We have not yet to date….but, I smell crow in the oven, the question is, who is eating it.
Big Ray
January 3rd, 2013
12:09 pm
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2013/01/02/atlanta-falcons-smith-is-happy-that-koetter-is-staying-on-board/?cxntfid=blogs_atlanta_falcons_blog
I should be happy about this, but the idea that having cold feet due to teams with questions at the QB position does not make me feel as warm about this as it should. And a one year contract, eh? Can’t say I’m surprised.
In the meantime, no word on Nolan, and that’s the name I want to hear, so I’m nervous still.
Perhaps Nolan merely uses his “popularity” as leverage to get more dough out of Blank…whatever…it’s a business. Just pay the man so that our top 10 defense can become a top 5 defense and we have some continuity on that side of the ball.
When you don’t have an offense that has PROVEN to be a deadly thing from game to game and season to season…you need that “next level” defense.
Big Ray
January 3rd, 2013
12:16 pm
Can we win with it in the playoffs with it? We have not yet to date….but, I smell crow in the oven, the question is, who is eating it.
There’s crow in the oven every year. I’m not into demanding that fans with differing opinions eat it, but I damn sure am into shoving it into the pie holes of the sports pundits and talking heads….
Big Ray
January 3rd, 2013
12:16 pm
Wabe ,
You’re not helping my nerves, bro.
Big Ray
January 3rd, 2013
12:17 pm
SP ,
Good post on Koetter/Smitty/The offense….I do believe I’m seeing what you’re seeing.
Paddy O
January 3rd, 2013
12:31 pm
It is highly possible that with Turner shipped off to the fat farm, our offense becomes truly dynamic. BIG problem of course is if we win the SB, Tony G is NOT coming back. IF we get close, yeah – I think we get him for another year. In TD I trust.
Big Ray
January 3rd, 2013
2:15 pm
Could be that Tony really is gone after this year. I think the key is Ryan, though. It’s Ryan that wants him back, and why wouldn’t he?
Problem is, sooner or later Tony G really does have to go, and it’s better for him to go out at the top of his game…which ironically is right now.
This makes me wonder – is Michael Palmer really good enough to be the heir apparent at the TE position? He’ll never be Tony G, but is he good enough to be anything like a Jason Whitten? Or a not-so-damn-crazy Jeremy Shockey?
If not, then we’d better be making moves SOON, because we don’t seem all that in a hurry to find a replacement for the amount of balls that get thrown Tony’s way.
I think no matter what we do, we’re not going to get that kind of production out of the TE position for a loooong time once Tony is gone. But it doesn’t mean we can’t get close. If we don’t find or have a guy that can catch 40-60 balls a season, we’re going to have to seriously tweak our offense.
Just look at what Tony is putting up stat-wise and tell me things wouldn’t be different…
Big Lou
January 3rd, 2013
3:04 pm
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-am/0ap2000000120938/DeCoud-singing-Falcons-way-to-the-playoffs
DeCoud on his missed tackle Sunday. At least he manned up.
Big Lou
January 3rd, 2013
3:21 pm
Big Ray
Wouldn’t that make HD more targeted on the offense? The reason he doesn’t get the ball more is because he is the last read, usually. To be honest, I do not think the production from our passing will go down–from the TE position, sure, but not overall. HD will just accumulate more yards because he will be a bigger part of the scheme.
Heck, if we can get a more dynamic running back, then it wouldn’t even matter anyways. It would be nice to replace Tony G, but color me crazy… I just don’t think it’s THAT important. I rather them focus on the trenches and a RB to balance our offense. That would help Ryan more than a TE option. Also, I feel Palmer would do an adequate job or maybe even sign Dallas Clark till a good prospect comes out that we can grab.
SOMEBODY NEEDS TO TELL THE TRUTH
January 3rd, 2013
3:37 pm
I’m not the least bit impressed seeing DecCoud in ths setting, IMO, if he’s gonna sing…and be a stand up comic and all, he should do it duct taped to a tackling dummy. IMHO.
Arno
January 3rd, 2013
3:44 pm
What we do at o-line and RB will effect TE prodution more than the choice of TE. But Big Lou– I did not like those media heads trying to be cute with DeCoud. You have a choice of two songs ?? He tried to have fun with it– but I didn’t like it.
Big Ray
January 3rd, 2013
4:14 pm
Big Lou ,
HA! I knew you’d see where I was going.
The point I was going to make before those chicken wings rudely interrupted me (we won’t go into detail here)…..
Is that we CAN’T replace Tony’s production from his position. Even more so, we can’t replace his level of talent at that position.
So logically, you have to look elsewhere. RB was actually my first thought, with my second being that you lose a magnificent receiving threat in TG, but you have an opportunity to change up your attack.
HD makes us more dangerous in some ways because of his speed and ability to make yards after the catch.
A better RB helps us even more, disguising what we might do from play to play and making a successful attack inevitable even on plays when the defense KNOWs what we’re going to do. Only full-feature RBs can do that.
Palmer likely falls into TG’s spot as a guy who will do more blocking than catching.
My concerns were this –
1) This will always be the biggest thing – Smitty’s learning curve will always dictate how quickly and how effectively we evolve on offense. Dude has hung on to Mike Turner like a dearly departing lover. The drop off from Gonzalez’s production will force us to do something on offense, but will that be completely up to Koetter? We’ll know how much it will depending on whether or not Turner is around next season, or if we pick up a RB in the draft…and when.
Koetter will be around, we do know this. Question is whether or not he’ll have a license to thrill – will he get more vertical and go across the middle of the field with HD and with a pair of RBs who can catch as well as run?
2) Turner. If he stays, I have no faith that he does so in a truly reduced role. Smitty has talked plenty about how good Quizz is and can be. Still treats him primarily like a 3rd down RB. Smitty has talked plenty about cutting Turner’s carries. He did do that, but he also b!tches about the running game. Somewhere in there, it never occurred to him to keep the running game going by running out of the shotgun and using other guys as much or more than Turner. There’s that steep ass learning curve again…
3) Trying to force more passes towards Roddy and Julio, and substituting more running where there will be less passes to the TE. It could happen. I only want it to happen in one way – we get a stud of a RB who can gash defenses at a moment’s notice. A homerun hitter that makes it really hard to load up against us on pass rush or on defending the run.
Even then, it’s necessary to get the ball to Douglas more. He becomes the 3rd read instead of the 4th.
Geo
January 3rd, 2013
4:17 pm
[two-part post, to defeat the blog monster]
Ok, the way I see it, there are two types of crow you can eat. You can eat crow because you were down on your team’s chances and they came through, or you can eat crow because you predicted excellence and got an egg.
I am not ordering the latter version of crow, but with the following, I am saying that is the crow I will eat if necessary.
I think the Falcons will come out and kick the tail of any of the three teams they will face in the divisional round. Not necessarily a beatdown, but definitely a win.
Here’s why: The running game and that includes Michael Turner. The Falcons have not abdoned the run game and they aren’t incapable as so many believe, they just use it sparingly. They are saving Turner, that’s been overtly stated. They have shown that they CAN run it. Go back to the New Orleans game at home, opening drive Turner and Quizz pounded the rock all the way to the end zone. After the first Eli interception against the Giants, we pounded it into the end zone with Turner. And even in the abysmal Tampa game, the bright spot was a 17-yard TD run by Turner in which the Oline blocked brilliantly. We will have these types of successes with Turner in the playoffs. They have been planning it all along.
Geo
January 3rd, 2013
4:18 pm
[part II]
The screen game, and RBs in the pass offense. AKA, the running game phase II (or I). When the offense is clicking, successful screens are an important part of the mix (see NYG game, among others). This can, and does, even include Turner. It’s not that hard to catch a screen pass, and by keeping it as an option no matter who is on the field, we keep the defense guessing. Although Turner is too slow to do much with a screen, it still gains yards on the hopefully few attempts. Snelling and Quizz are, of course, perfectly suited to catch passes out of the backfield.
Our defense, naturally. Still underrated. They will either keep us in the game until the offense can click, or they will dominate (in tandem with the offense ) with turnovers and tough red zone play. Nolan is a genius.
Matt Ryan. His brilliant year was no mirage. He answered the challenges and keyed most of the wins this year. He will step up in the playoffs, if his Oline gives him a pocket and a few seconds. They will.
Tony G. He is due for a big playoff game. But if it’s not him, Julio or Roddy. But Tony and Roddy have that chemistry with Matt that can make all the difference. They will all likely have their moments if the point immediately above happens (Ryan has protection).
Peaking at the right time. Pretend you are a horse race handicapper — throw out the Tampa game and the Carolina game, as they were nothing games in the scheme of things. How did they do in the big races recently (NO, NYG, Detroit)? Wins. They will rack up a couple more in the Ga. Dome this month. Or I’ll eat my hat, with a side of crow.
Big Ray
January 3rd, 2013
4:20 pm
DeCoud has his Pro Bowl moments. Then he has those moments when you’re like “what in the world was he thinking with that non-tackle?”
Big Ray
January 3rd, 2013
4:25 pm
Geo ,
Love the positivity of your posts, and hope what you say is true. Actually, the capability part is entirely true. We’ve seen it.
I’ll maintain my stance on crow – no force feeding my fellow fans, I’m just not into it. Why squabble? And I hope that’s not a Falcons hat you’re planning on dining on if you’re wrong…;)
I’m looking forward to the playoffs. We have the look of a team that can do something special. Time to see it come to fruition.
Geo
January 3rd, 2013
4:38 pm
Thanks, Big Ray. It just feels like it’s time. A story that is on the Falcons mobile site, but not the web site as yet, is also a good sign. Instead of a speech to the team, Smith shows a video of past Superbowl winning players talking about the experience, how they did it, etc. Apparently it went over well and practice has been good and focused.
I’ve got plenty of hats, as I need them to protect by bald head from the sun and cold.
Hey, if I turn out to be right and have a normal diet, maybe I will graduate to Big Geo.
Big Lou
January 3rd, 2013
5:45 pm
Great post, Big Ray. I completely agree!
JB Falcon
January 3rd, 2013
5:54 pm
Geo, I’ll go along with your part I and Part II posts. Instead of eating my hat (2012 Div Champs) I’m saving up for a 2012 SB hat. If I don’t get one, I won’t get one, but will still be proud to be a Falcon fan. I think some of the caution, pessimism and doubt comes from our past and learned habits. It’s like a boxer who gets hit in the face so many times he flinches before every hit. I’m all for being the hitter and azz kicker for a change.
Matty Bicep
January 3rd, 2013
6:23 pm
What is interesting is we were in the middle of the pack in giving up yardage, and 29th in yards per play, and I am actually optimistic about our defense heading into the playoffs.
I guess it is our being 5th in scoring that gives me confidence. But we have to acknowledge that you cannot look at our defense by itself. It is our special teams play, and our offensive play calling that keeps our “bend but don’t break” defense from breaking by making teams march the field, and limiting their opportunities by dominating the clock.
My point? football is a cohesive game, offense, defense, special teams, it is all related. And although I laud Nolan for being able to bring the smoke and mirrors to make up for a pedestrian defensive talent level (yea, I said it, no pro bowlers, our best player is arguably a 34 year old part timer).
But, it is not Nolan alone….as I said, I admit I cringe when I watch a falcons game and tubby turner stumbles for yet another 2 yard loss, and hardly think Smitty is a genius, but he might be Chauncy Gardner. (google it).
Matty Bicep
January 3rd, 2013
6:30 pm
One other thing I really liked was the 2nd half of the Giants game, we had to most dynamic, game clenching, innovative 2nd half play calling sequence that I have ever seen from a Smitty coached Falcon team. I am very very confident that if we can come out, and get a couple of quick scores like we did several times this year, we will win.
Matty Bicep
January 3rd, 2013
6:32 pm
If we come out an look out of sync like we did against the Giants last year, or against the Bucs last week, it might be a long day.
Matty Bicep
January 3rd, 2013
6:54 pm
Smitty Facts:
* Smitty is 46-1 when the Falcons hold the lead going into the 4th quarter.
* His teams have had 22 come from behind 4th quarter victories.
* We credit Nolan being #5 in scoring? The Falcons are #3 in scoring defense under you know who from 08-11.
* Up until this year, they allowed 17 points in 53 possessions inside 2 minutes of each have between 08-11. I am not sure where we stand this year, but I don’t recall us give him many late game points. Hell, I have seen teams let up 17 points in the final 2 minutes of one half.
* Bend but don’t break? Falcons were ranked #2 last year in defensive red zone efficiency under You know who.
* Our Special Teams have been ranked in the top 10 every year since 08
* From 2008-2011, our team led the league in forcing teams to start drives inside their 20 yard line, 63 times in 48 games….That is how you win football games.
I am not trying to piss anyone off, just stating facts. Go back and look at Smittys defensive resume form Jacksonville.
http://prod.www.falcons.clubs.nfl.com/team/coaches/Mike-Smith/a22e3d7e-3e0b-4143-93b8-42f545b0b0c7
I really hope he does it this year.
Matty Bicep
January 3rd, 2013
7:01 pm
The 17 points in 53 inside 2 minute possessions… That was over 3 years, not 4. Still, that is absurd….beyond absurd. Like I said, I have seen team hang 17 point in two minutes on ONE half.
DHunt
January 3rd, 2013
7:08 pm
I just don’t get all the emphasis on “history” (and particularly playoff history) when it comes to analyzing future playoff results. Often the history in question isn’t even recent history. How the Falcons playoff history from the 80’s reflects on this current team is simply inconsequential. If history was any indication, the Seahawks, Redskins, Colts, and Bengals wouldn’t even be in the playoffs. Add to that the simple fact that historical analysis simply cannot factor in the current incarnation of an NFL team when players and coaches change and develop (or regress) from year to year.
In my mind, even recent history has only so much to offer insofar as analyzing or predicting what will happen in the playoffs is a slippery slope. Recent history says the Vikings A.P. will rack up 200 yards rushing on the Pack. If that happens, there is a very good chance the pack will lose, even at home, because in the playoffs that means the Vikings aren’t playing from behind, and there’s much less chance for Ponder to have a big impact on the outcome of the game. The Giants entered last season’s playoffs as one of the weakest run teams in the league, but somehow managed to turn it up and turn it on in that Superbowl run.
Matt Ryan has had a couple of sub par games in recent playoff history. Particularly in the Giants game last year, I have always had the impression that was far more about being outcoached than it was about his actual performance. Mularkey had no intention of changing anything, and it showed as the Falcons weren’t able to generate the few plays they needed to even look competitive in that game. No way Koetter has the same lack of creativity and flexibility this year.
The one thing that seems to stand out in postseason success is a teams will to win. The Falcons have that over almost every other team I can think of. This year’s Falcons have played down to their opposition on several occasions, but have also played up to their competition in major ways on even more occasions. They’ve looked great in prime time and against all the elite competition they have faced. That bodes well for playoff success.
Matty Bicep
January 3rd, 2013
8:16 pm
History is no indication, unless it gets in your head and start thinking your snake bit. Had Brooking made a play in 08, who knows what the result would be today, but he did not, and here we are.
Watch the news conferences of the teams who fired their coaches, every single one is looking for somebody to come in, and field a competitive team every year. Not a single one says they are looking for a guy who can demonstrate they can win in the playoffs, they are looking for consistency, because you know if you keep getting there, your gonna win.
The “I want to win championships” is more bluster than anything, I mean, who does not? You have to put yourself in position, which they have done a quite well, then you have to seize the opportunity, which is step 2 of the process.
Can we get an offensive minded coach who will do more with our “talent”? Probably, but will we continue to have solid D? (remember we are #3 in points allowed from 08-11, not do dis Nolan, but he did not build this team) will we be solid on special teams? Will we keep our uncanny ability to hold leads and snuff teams out?
Will we have a consistent winner? No guarantee at all, it is my experience that we probably wont.
And when you start to design systems around your “talent”, your one or two injuries away from a lost season.Think MV7, Jamal Anderson, remember those days? One hit, season over….Now, if Ryan goes down….but your system does at least try to keep him out of harms way, we know the golden geese….(fingers crossed).
Again, every owner strives for consistency, for they know, if you keep putting yourself in position, eventually you will seize the opportunity. Man, do I hope we do it this year, I really feel it we win one stupid playoff game, there we will be very hard to stop.
Wabe
January 3rd, 2013
9:43 pm
It’s not just points allowed per game…
the reason why Nolan is being praised as much as he is is because he’s finally corrected areas that have plagued this team for years.
The pass defense has been average to below-average since Smitty and BVG arrived. The 3rd down defense has been terrible for years.
Those are things you see that Nolan actually improved upon. We’re a top 10 pass defense for the first time in how long? And we’re a better overall 3rd down defense, which is huge because it gets the ball back to our offense for more opportunities.
BVG and Mike Nolan don’t belong in the same sentence.
At all.