Unlike 49ers, the Falcons don’t have a signature win

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith (11) passes as Pittsburgh Steelers defensive end Brett Keisel (99) tries to block the pass during the second quarter of an NFL football game in San Francisco, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011. (AP Photo/Paul Sakuma)

I woke up this morning with a football revelation.

I said to self, “Self, the 49ers are legitimate NFC title contenders.”

Self said to me, “Go blog about that. Tell the World.”

Well World, the 49ers are legitimate NFC title contenders along with Green Bay and New Orleans. They earned their signature win last night and are thus anointed “legitimate NFC title contenders.”

Jim Harbaugh has done a nice job building on the manhood that Mike Singletary instilled in those players when they were younger.

Rookie defensive end Aldon Smith was awesome. San Francisco safety Donte Whitner came up and laid some nice hits on the Pittsburgh receivers. And just think the 49ers didn’t have linebacker Patrick Willis.

The Falcons have been too inconsistent and don’t have that signature win yet. They could get theirs on Monday night. But they can’t just squeak by with a field goal at the end. A signature win entails beating down a good team.

Falcons linebacker (56) Sean Weatherspoon comes up with the fumble by the Jaguars' Jarett Dillard on a kick return, setting up a touchdown run by Michael Turner for a 17-0 Falcons lead during 1st half action. Curtis Compton / ccompton@ajc.com

The Falcons only have one win over a team that currently has a winning record. Their signature win was a 23-16 slugfest with the Detroit Lions (9-5) on Oct. 23. Their other “impressive” victories were over Seattle (7-7) and Tennessee (7-7).

Even without their signaturw win, the Falcons chances of repeating as NFC South champions are alive.

The Falcons will need to beat the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and finish 11-5 overall, 4-2 in the NFC South.

They would also need the Saints to lose at home to the Carolina Panthers in their regular-season finale. The Saints would finish 11-5, 3-3 in the division.

Since the Falcons and Saints would be tied in head-to-head (1-1) games, the tie would be broken on the second tie-breaker rule: best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

Under this scenario, the Falcons would finish with division losses to Tampa Bay and New Orleans. The Saints would finish with division losses to Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Carolina.

“Again, we control what we can control,” Smith said. “It’s obvious that our guys are familiar with the scenarios that we are in. I think this, not just talking about our ball game; it’s going to be a very interesting two weeks for a lot of teams.

“The way that the schedule is put together with all of the division teams playing one another, it makes for a great finish to the regular season. I know that our guys are aware of it.”

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

The six postseason participants from each conference are seeded as follows:

1.The division champion with the best record.

Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert (11) has been sacked 4th-most in the NFL this season. Jason Getz / jgetz@ajc.com

2.The division champion with the second-best record.

3.The division champion with the third-best record.

4.The division champion with the fourth-best record.

5.The Wild Card club with the best record.

6.The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5.Strength of victory.

6.Strength of schedule.

7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

Roddy White wide receiver catches a Matt Ryan pass in front of Jaguars cornerback Ashton Youboty during 1st half action. Curtis Compton / ccompton@ajc.com

9.Best net points in common games.

10.Best net points in all games.

11.Best net touchdowns in all games.

12.Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

1.Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).

2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

5.Strength of victory.

6.Strength of schedule.

7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9.Best net points in common games.

10.Best net points in all games.

11.Best net touchdowns in all games.

12.Coin toss

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

1.If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.

2.If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

1.Head-to-head, if applicable.

2.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

4.Strength of victory.

5.Strength of schedule.

6.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

7.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

8.Best net points in conference games.

9.Best net points in all games.

10.Best net touchdowns in all games.

11.Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

2.Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)

3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

5.Strength of victory.

6.Strength of schedule.

7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

8.Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

9.Best net points in conference games.

10.Best net points in all games.

11.Best net touchdowns in all games.

12.Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES

1.Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.

2.In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.

3.To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.

4.To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).

5.To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team’s position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is “3.” If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is “4.” Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of “1″ in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be “3.”

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING

1.Clubs not participating in the playoffs shall select in the first through 20th positions in reverse standings order.

2.The Super Bowl winner is last and Super Bowl loser is next-to-last.

3.The losers of the Conference Championship games shall select 29th and 30th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

4.The losers of the Divisional playoff games shall select 25th through 28th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

5.The losers of the Wild Card games shall select 21st through 24th based on won-lost-tied percentage.

If ties exist in any grouping except (2) above, such ties shall be broken by strength-of-schedule. If any ties cannot be broken by strength-of-schedule, the divisional or conference tie-breakers, if applicable, shall be applied. Any ties that still exist shall be broken by a coin flip.

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–D. Orlando Ledbetter, The Atlanta Falcons beat blog

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