Likelihood of defending NFC South title down to 15.4 percent

110812 Atlanta - Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan throws a pass to Julio Jones during 1st quarter action at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Friday, August 12, 2011.      Curtis Compton ccompton@ajc.com

110812 Atlanta - Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan throws a pass to Julio Jones during 1st quarter action at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Friday, August 12, 2011. Curtis Compton ccompton@ajc.com

Can you say “Wildcard?”

The loss to the Saints has decreased the Falcons’ chances of making the playoffs from 48.6 percent to 34.6 percent, according to the web site www.makeNFLplayoffs.com which calculates the chances each NFL team will make the playoffs.

The Falcons’ chance of winning the division, and defending their NFC South title,  has decreased from 31.8 percent to 15.4 percent. They are virtually assured of making the playoffs with six more wins and have a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs with four more wins.

Here’s a look at the Falcons’ depth chart that was released by the team on Tuesday.

OFFENSE

WR 11 Julio Jones 83 Harry Douglas 14 Eric Weems

LT 72 Sam Baker 74 Will Svitek

LG 63 Justin Blalock 73 Kirk Chambers

C 62 Todd McClure 61 Joe Hawley 66 Brett Romberg

RG 61 Joe Hawley 75 Garrett Reynolds

RT 77 Tyson Clabo 74 Will Svitek

TE 88 Tony Gonzalez 89 Reggie Kelly 81 Michael Palmer

WR 84 Roddy White 80 Kerry Meier

QB 2 Matt Ryan 8 Chris Redman

RB 33 Michael Turner 44 Jason Snelling 22 Jacquizz Rodgers 35 Antone Smith

FB 42 Mike Cox

DEFENSE

RE 55 John Abraham 90 Lawrence Sidbury 98 Cliff Matthews

DT 91 Corey Peters 99 Vance Walker 97 Carlton Powell

DT 95 Jonathan Babineaux 94 Peria Jerry

LE 93 Ray Edwards 71 Kroy Biermann

OLB 56 Sean Weatherspoon 59 Spencer Adkins

MLB 50 Curtis Lofton 52 Akeem Dent

OLB 54 Stephen Nicholas 53 Mike Peterson

RCB 23 Dunta Robinson 21 Chris Owens 26 Kelvin Hayden

LCB 20 Brent Grimes 24 Dominique Franks 29 Darrin Walls

S 25 William Moore 36 James Sanders

S 28 Thomas DeCoud 39 Shann Schillinger

SPECIALISTS

K 3 Matt Bryant

KO 5 Matt Bosher

P 5 Matt Bosher

KR 14 Eric Weems 24 Dominique Franks

PR 14 Eric Weems 24 Dominique Franks

LS 82 Joe Zelenka

H 5 Matt Bosher  80 Kerry Meier

–D. Orlando Ledbetter, The Atlanta Falcons beat blog

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143 comments Add your comment

Rodney

November 16th, 2011
5:19 am

Fredin Statesboro

November 16th, 2011
5:28 am

I also remember the chance of the Braves making the playoffs was over 90%

Felix

November 16th, 2011
6:02 am

The play-offs? This team should just hope for a 9-7 season. The def. back field can’t stop a fly with a bulldozier, and right now Mattie Ice is having trouble hitting the broad side of a barn when it comes to throwing deep.

Falcon James

November 16th, 2011
6:19 am

I remember a times when DOL tell us not to jump off the bridge that it only preseason. Did anybody tell the falcon that it not preseason anymore. I can’t believe that the falcon saying, “we got them exactly where we want them now”. I see Roddy and Ray taking they lumps like big boys. It no secret that most fan don’t like Roddy big mouth and just want to see him play up to his potential. Ray gots no excuse. Ryan need to concentrate on what he doing. He could be the greatest 10 to 15 yard QB in the league, but he need to get more accurate. Sure he not responsible for all Roddy drops, but he need to think about throwing more to folk who don’t drop. I would not want to be in the Titan shoes this week. Everytime the falcon feel like they got something to prove, the other team is in for a bad day. Look out Titan, you got an angry bird coming your way!!!

Atlanta Native

November 16th, 2011
6:22 am

I’ll gladly trade missing the playoffs this season for a Mularkey AND Van Gorder firing in the off season!

SeenThisB4

November 16th, 2011
6:49 am

We’re off this week, so……..GEAUX TITANS!

MeToo

November 16th, 2011
6:49 am

Atlanta Native! Copy That Especially MM!

Milt Olsen

November 16th, 2011
7:30 am

The Falcons have a very soft schedule so a wild card playoff is virtually assured and the division title can still happen. This is the time of the season when teams are starting to gain momentum, so the Falcons will be on a roll after Sunday.

Michael M.

November 16th, 2011
7:30 am

Playoffs ? whats the percentage on them actually making that now ?
Are they trying to pretend they the Packers and hope they lucky enough to get in with a 10 – 6 record like GB was fortunate enough to do last year ?
mmmmm……….just think about that a moment. If GB hadn’t been so fortunate to get that spot at 10-6, they would have no Super Bowl Ring !

Flip the believer

November 16th, 2011
7:37 am

I am a true FALCONS fan, I have never junped ship since the mid 70’s…Everyone of ya’ll say BVG and MM need to, go but I say bull%*/?. Matt Ryan will come up big against the TITANS , Roddy , hopefully #11 will be in the mix ,plus we have TG i guess ya’ll say he has lost a step ,BULLBUTTER, Jump back non believers … baecause all of this negativity pisses me off….. So go on and root for your Saints, Titans ,Packers, ……But as for one voice, one fan, 3 or 4 (4th down converstions). Mike Smith will have all he’s ducks in a row Hell yea I am proud to be called an ATLANTA FALCONS fan !!! win lose or draw !!! See you in the playoffs ! Phillip “Flip” Moore…..! Scottsboro,AL.

Michael M.

November 16th, 2011
7:43 am

I BELieveE ! ! ! ! Riseeeeeeee upppppppp !!!

Rise up !

What do Falcon’s do ? ?

…………………………They always find some way to blow it !

mountain_jim

November 16th, 2011
7:53 am

FIRE MULARKEY! (If Falcons don’t make playoffs, he will be the number one reason – that 4th down play was a terribly unimaginative choice, already run on 4th down in the game, they were ready for it, thus no Division champ this year. )

Thanks Mularkey for being so stupid. Or Smith if he chose that play. Try to get them to jump, if that did not work, fake the dive and pitch to Rodgers outside for a huge gain. Or spread-out offense quick sneak like Brady. But running the exact same play you ran on 4th earlier after they had a time out to get their run-stuffing package in and knew the play coming and apparently the snap count is just STUPID.

Of course D Led has defended him at every turn this season. Jeff, who can be objective, sees what we see. Mark also called out the poor play calling and time-management during the previous game.

I also remember when the Braves were in the 90+% to make the playoffs.

Michael M.

November 16th, 2011
8:00 am

What are the odds of Green Bay going 16-0 and getting knocked off in the playoffs D-Led ? They good but no Team is unbeatable.

Atlanta would have been better off kicking the ball back to the Saints and taking a chance of them making a mistake and the D coming up with a play.

SimpleDawg

November 16th, 2011
8:03 am

No playoffs for this team this year. My season tickets are harder to sell than a dung cupcake.

Too many problems to list….. Losing games in creative ways…. Sad

Michael M.

November 16th, 2011
8:18 am

I must be having a bout of dementia this morning……..Crazzzzzyyyyy thought here .
Lets say Atlanta does make a playoff bid this year…okay_
Greenbay stays unbeaten, makes it to the NFC Championship Game
Atlanta makes it and is their opponent_

The Birds Beat the Packers in the Championship Game,
Play the Superbowl and win the Title !

Don’t you know that would be the Sports Shocker of the Year !
I could see Peter King gloating on the front cover of SI Magazine now…………saying I told you so !

Hey , it could happen………….anything can happen in football, especially the NFL .

Jim Mora

November 16th, 2011
8:21 am

Playoffs! Playoffs! Are you kiddin’ me! Playoffs!

Michael M.

November 16th, 2011
8:21 am

Forget what I posted…………the Falcons ?

Comeeeeeee onnnnnnnnnnn Maaaaannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn !

saints fan

November 16th, 2011
8:22 am

The Real Falcon

November 16th, 2011
8:23 am

The GET REAL numbers:

ATL 5-4 4-4 in Conference.
DAL 5-4 4-2 in conference
DET 6-3 4-3 in conference we own tie-breaker
CHI 6-3 6-3 in conference we lose tie-breaker

Only two teams will make the playoffs.
And Tampa is only 4-5.

Allen Iverson

November 16th, 2011
8:23 am

What they need is more practice. Practice! Practice! Practice!

The Real Falcon

November 16th, 2011
8:25 am

Anyone who says a playoff is “vitually assured” believe tha Braves made the playoffs and not the Cards.
Get real.

Dennis Green

November 16th, 2011
8:25 am

What happened to the Falcons who were supposed to win the Super Bowl? The are who we thought they were!

Michael M.

November 16th, 2011
8:25 am

Practice makes perfect….ha ! ha ! ………….or so they say.
I knew I wake some People up with that comment above I posted………….lmao

Miked

November 16th, 2011
8:27 am

Plain and simple…….. Mike Smith loyalty to his coordinators is going to get him fired. Also another thing I love the Falcons and want to see them win but we must come to the recognition that Matt Ryan Is not a all pro QB. He can not throw the deep ball. If he gets hit one time he is off a majority of the rest of the game. If anyone watched the game Monday night you saw our team. We have better receivers. We have a better tight end. We have a better running back. The thing that is missing is the play caller and the QB. We have weapons everywhere but we don’t know how to use them. Rodgers threw to 10 different receivers Matt only throws to TG and Roddy or Julio too much. We see what Harry can do in the slot. If we spread teams out and throw J. Rodgers a screen or two we will be unstoppable but again we need a QB and a Offensive Coordinator to do that.

Dante R

November 16th, 2011
8:31 am

After the new orleans choke, the falcons have no chance of winning the division. They will not make the playoffs–another failed season. Smith must go!

Michael M.

November 16th, 2011
8:33 am

Hey now ..we talking about the Falcons………probably the most unpredictable Team in Football !
They could fool all of us this year !

think they will make some staff changes over the Winter if they don’t make a playoff appearance but its not a good thing to completely change the regime………its like starting over from scratch !

2 > 7

November 16th, 2011
8:34 am

Maybe we could Occupy the Dome until they fire MM.

Michael M.

November 16th, 2011
8:35 am

You don’t put together 3 winning Seasons without doing something right

Durty Burdz

November 16th, 2011
8:51 am

Look at the rest of the schedule. I only see one potential loss and that is at New Orleans. That game could very well be for the division. We will win this Sunday against the Titans, next against the Vikings, @ Houston without Schaub, @ Carolina, Jacksonville Thursday night game, Saints game is a toss up depending if its for the division or not, and Tampa Bay at home to finish the year. We will at best go 7-0 and at worst 6-1 with a loss to the Aints. Bank on that burdz fanz.

Th

November 16th, 2011
8:56 am

Maybe we can use our first round pick next year to get a real pass rusher. Oh wait, we traded it for Julio. Never mind.

Our real problem is that Sidbury has as many sacks as all our LB’s combined and our defensive line has twice as many interceptions as our whole LB corps. As Doug Stewart would say, “That suuuuucks.”

Tell it like it is.

November 16th, 2011
9:06 am

A lot of players on the falcons are just showing up for a paycheck and it shows!

Dwayne C

November 16th, 2011
9:07 am

The Atlanta Falcons will go 8-8 and will see a huge ad in the AJC, paid for by team owner Arthur Blank, apologizing for this team’s failure to make the playoffs and other predictable ramblings.

30 yrs Falcons Fan

November 16th, 2011
9:07 am

I agree with Atlanta Native – Mularkey and Van Gorder need to go!

ijonathan

November 16th, 2011
9:12 am

Miked, are you saying that the Falcons have better receivers, tight ends and running backs than Green Bay?

Did you put some crack in your cheerios this morning?

ATL

November 16th, 2011
9:15 am

Dwayne C. What teams are we going to lose to besides the saints?

Tell it like it is.

November 16th, 2011
9:21 am

ATL-The better question would be,who we gonna beat?

sam

November 16th, 2011
9:22 am

I think the Falcons could go 10-6 and still miss the playoffs because of the teams ahead of us in the standing. Both the Lions and the Bears have one more win and the Cowboys are 5-4 also. Even if we make the playoffs, we’re not going to win on the road against the Giants or the Saints if we continues to play the way we have been playing.

Steve From Dalton

November 16th, 2011
9:22 am

Falcons have winable games with Tennessee, Minnesota, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tampa. Houston lost its QB and that greatly incrase the odds of a road win. NO at the Superdome is the only game I have my doubts about.

Dallas has two games left with the Giants
Lions have Green Bay for two games, N O and Oakland on the Road
Bears have Green Bay and Oakland. A game with the Chargers (no idea which charge team shows up).

sam

November 16th, 2011
9:23 am

Have the Falcons had a back-to-back playoffs season?

sam

November 16th, 2011
9:27 am

I think the deep passes are overrated in the NFL. If you watch Brees, Rodgers, Brady and Manning, they’re so good at moving around in the pocket and NOT PANIC, and buy time for the receivers to get open 15-20 yrds down the field. Ryan gets so happy feet and throws away the ball as soon as he feels the pressure. That’s the difference b/w the elite QBs and Ryan.

Mike is Back

November 16th, 2011
9:28 am

DLed, I just think if the BIRDS can find a way to maintain a consistent pass rush…they can win the remainder of their games.

I thought that besides the lack of pass rush…I thought we went away from Turner early in the game. I thought Turner was our recipe for success. If we can get back to Turner…and find out what happen to the pass rush…we can catch them Aints…and defend our title.

RISE UP BIRDS…LETS GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

riggo

November 16th, 2011
9:35 am

It was a bunch formation with no wideout,therfore you couldn’t play action so your options or QB sneak or hand off to RB 5 yards deep with no lead blocker. The Saints had 11 in the box, they knew what was coming… you have to to be more creative than that MM.

bigslow

November 16th, 2011
9:37 am

YOU WOULD GET HAPPY FEET IF U HAD THE O LINE THAT WE HAVE

bigslow

November 16th, 2011
9:41 am

I AGREE THE 2ND HALF SCHED IS DOABLE. 6-1 AT THE LEES

D man

November 16th, 2011
9:42 am

I still believe. We are going to win the rest of our regular season games and win the division. We are better that the teams left on our schedule. We are this years Green Bay… Go FALCONS!!! :)

ohmy

November 16th, 2011
9:43 am

dunta robinson and ray edwards are, so far, a waste of money. our defense should be better because of them; not the same. edwards just got here so he has some leeway, but robinson…a colossal waste. the offense is beginning to click. adding new pieces takes time but time is running short. a winning season and no playoffs is annoyingly likely.

bigslow

November 16th, 2011
9:44 am

I AM NOT CERTAIN MM CALLED THAT PLAY ON 4TH. IN THE PAST M SMITH HAVE MADE THE CALL

Joe Tess Fish House

November 16th, 2011
9:45 am

HA! Just as I fiured. The lowey Flacons R strugling again. The worse part is they have no draft next year cuz they traded it a way 4 a player that is injrued! Hmmmmmm Reminds me of anoter fist round pick…..Pewrrier Jerry. Does he even have N E tackels this year?

Joe Tess Fish House

November 16th, 2011
9:47 am

ANd taht looser Donta Roberson is always out of positon on defence. He needs 2 be cut now. They could do beter with just 10 men on the feild!

Cajun Crap Talker

November 16th, 2011
9:53 am

Keep calm. Falcons will be a wild card. Only THEN will they disappoint you.