The 2011 Mockiavelli: Falcons to take DE Allen Bailey

Miami linebacker Marcus Robinson (56) and defensive lineman Allen Bailey (57) bring down Virginia Tech quarterback Sean Glennon in the second half. (By J. Pat Carter -- Associated Press)

Miami linebacker Marcus Robinson (56) and defensive lineman Allen Bailey (57) bring down Virginia Tech quarterback Sean Glennon in the second half. (By J. Pat Carter -- Associated Press)

The plan is to debut “The 2011 Mockiavell” next Friday right here.

We’ll have my Mock draft every Friday right up to draft day, they we can turn our full attention to the NFL Labor madness. (Split up the $9 billion and keep it moving!) You all like the Mock Draft so much last year that I had to give it a corny nickname! Hope you like!

Since we didn’t do a full review, I’m going to take some time pat myself on the back. Last year’s final Mock was super strong.  I correctly had the Falcons selecting  Sean Weatherspoon on the Friday before the draft. I even went on

Maryland's Torrey Smith is projecting as a DeSean Jackson type game breaker. (Richard Shiro/associated Press)

Maryland's Torrey Smith is projecting as a DeSean Jackson type game breaker. (Richard Shiro/associated Press)

ESPN on Tuesday and nailed the pick on national television.

But I’d gotten a call about the Falcons holding a late workout for Demaryius Thomas and somehow I read that to mean they wanted Oklahoma TE Jermaine Gresham, my final pick. (So I guess I really didn’t nail it.)

By that point, I’d gotten off of Maurkice Pouncey as their pick because Pittsburgh was going to take him. I remember most of you called me crazy for considering a center. Now, Todd McShay has them drafting his brother.

There were some major whiffs, too. Nobody had Jacksonville taking Tyson Alualu with the 10th pick. Also, I had Jimmy Clausen being selected in the first round.  I had Bryan Bulaga going way too high.

Here’s the last FINAL MOCK  draft. You all can evaluate it for yourselves.   If a player is taken in the first round and I have him going somewhere in the first round, that’s a correct pick. Looks like I had 27 of the 32 picks.

I whiffed on Tebow, Aluala, Devin McCourty, Jahvid Best and Jerry Hughes.

However, while I’ll have the full ” 2011 Mockiavelli” ready next week, I already have the Falcons’ pick at No. 27.  You all better start doing your research on Mr. Allen Bailey, defensive end from the U. He’s stout at 6-4, 285 pounds and blazes the 40 in 4.65 seconds.

Maryland wide receiver Torrey Smith is a possibility. Wisconsin tackle Gabe Carimi is a possibility.

On shelves next week: The 2011 Mockiavelli 1.0.

–D. Orlando Ledbetter, The Atlanta Falcons beat blog

Get instant updates on Twitter at AJCFalcons and you can join the Facebook Fan page at AJC Falcons.

84 comments Add your comment

midwestbird

February 11th, 2011
5:26 am

Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue

Jake

February 11th, 2011
6:04 am

Very nice D.Led!!!I got casey matthews going in the 2nd round

Jake

February 11th, 2011
6:04 am

TommyP

February 11th, 2011
6:08 am

I finished 53rd in the nation last year on ESPN with their mock draft pick’em game (or whatever it’s called). Or maybe it was NFL.com. Anyway….didn’t just get the first rounders correct but nailed their exact team on a huge number…..

D-Led…..GREAT nickname for this. However, you change your pick so often that it’s pointless.

[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by D. Orlando Ledbetter, ATLHOMER. ATLHOMER said: Atlanta Falcons – RT The 2011 Mockiavelli: Falcons to take DE Allen Bailey: Miami linebacker Marcus Robins… http://bit.ly/hH3s06 #AJC [...]

Larry

February 11th, 2011
6:18 am

If the Falcons can first address their primary need, DE, in free agency then they will take Torrey Smith with their first pick. If they cannot lock a FA DE up by the draft–unlikely because of the CBA–then they will draft the best possible athlete at, in order, DE, CB or WR.

Sure, they need some upgrades on the OL and a WR, but, as we witnessed against Green Bay, they are desperate for defensive play-makers, especially ones that can create pressure on the QB and cover a 3rd and 4th receiver.

lanier

February 11th, 2011
6:25 am

get it on D Led. this is fun

Dawg Consultant

February 11th, 2011
6:28 am

Allen Bailey would have been the pick of past Falcon regimes, but not the new and improved Falcons. Bailey will not doubt creep into the first round, as he will be the proverbial “work-out warrior”, and some team will draft him because on paper he looks like the second coming. The Falcon brass now look for play makers, not all measurable teams. Allen Bailey will be in the NFL for years, and may even start for several. He is not a difference maker though, and has never played up to his measurables. In other words, the sum of the parts is less than the whole in his case. Good character guy, great measurables, but for a guy that gifted you would hardly know he was on the field most games.

Marcus

February 11th, 2011
6:32 am

’bout time … bro. DOL, the last 2 years I have been trying to get you going on the Mockiavelli by mid-season :) LOL.

Bailey would be a good choice as would a quality OL, esp. picking in the 27th slot …. my only caveat is what quality change-of-pace RB will be available. Assuming that WR Harry Douglass had a season-long recovery “hangover” from his injured knee (same w/Peria Jerry), speed slot WR might not be as high …… but still a possibility in later rounds.

Marcus

February 11th, 2011
6:37 am

Larry, I tend to agree about defensive playmakers, but just like the second NO game (@ GA Dome) in the playoff game vs. GB, we had chances for plays and missed most of them (although not as many).

The big momentum turners for me was the def. holding on 3rd down when GB was in the red zone and we were up 14-7. Hold them to a FG would have been a victory. Then on next drive, the slightly underthown pass to Jenkins that got picked. Had we gone up 21-10 or even 17-10 (provided above, holding to FG), then the desperation play-calling and subsequent pick (leading to 28-14 GB lead) may have been precluded.

Willy

February 11th, 2011
6:40 am

I’d like to see a combo WR/LB like Hines Ward but I guess there isn’t one.

Vinny D

February 11th, 2011
6:56 am

I watched Torrey Smith the other day in the presuper bowl competition and was not really impressed. I didn’t see the naturally soft hands. There were a lot of body catches and a few that he just couldn’t snag that looked snagable (new word of the day)

atlnative

February 11th, 2011
6:56 am

If the Falcons can get Allen Bailey,the defense will become 100% better overnight.Bailey is a freakish athlete with unlimited potential.He could possibly be the Atlanta Falcons best defensive tackle since Rod Coleman.A product of McIntosh Academy in South Georgia.

DC Dirty Bird

February 11th, 2011
7:01 am

Bailey is a solid pick. I think he underachieved in college due to coaching. He regressed when Randy Shannon took a hands off approach to the defense. He has the same motor that Kroy Bierman has and the body to go along with it. I’d rather have Ray Edwards though and draft Titus Young from Boise St. Speed, hands, body control, and route running. We can supplement the defense through free agency (DE, DB’s) and look to strike gold with speed on offense through the draft. Anybody know why Lawrence Sidbury was inactive so much? I thought he played well enough to get playing time during the preseason.

joswald

February 11th, 2011
7:36 am

DE, TE, WR, HB, CB, OLB…The needs list is long.

Falcons Chic

February 11th, 2011
7:38 am

Excuse me? There is a high character player coming out of The U?

can he play

February 11th, 2011
7:45 am

Great point from Dawg Consultant. Dimitroff won’t pick Bailey even though Bailey will wow em at the combine. When will many NFL GM’s learn that potential and non-game condition testing doesn’t mean squat. When was the last time a defensive player at the collegiate level succeeded in the pros when the player was virutally a non-factor during their entire college career. Take out the blocked field goals and Boss Bailey is a pretty good comparison. A player with all the athletic skills in the world who was vitually invisible on defense and never made plays or had their name called by the PA announcer on Saturdays. GMS’s will fall in love with Bailey, let’s hope Dimitroff is not one of them.

McNasty

February 11th, 2011
7:53 am

Here’s a tip. Go to http://www.footballsfuture.com, see mock draft, draft player profiles, and all FAs with analysis. There seems to only be FA opportunities with the jets for a WR if you discount Jackson in SD. No quality DEs are likely to be allowed to be signed by other teams. But do your own analysis. Look @ the “Sleepers” and see if the guy from Troy could replace Harry Douglas.

D. Orlando Ledbetter

February 11th, 2011
7:53 am

Midwestbird — 0 Big Ten players drafted by the Dimitroff administration. Kerrigan might not be system fit, is what I’m thinking right now.

TommyP
— I change my picks because the information flow changes week to week. You have to decipher the truth from the non-truths.

Dawg Consultant — That’s some good analysis for us. Thanks.

Glenn

February 11th, 2011
7:53 am

I would draft for need rather than luxury, or best available athlete.

Anyone watching the NFL playoffs this year should have seen that the teams that moved on were the teams that had the top ranked DEFENSES. The Super Bowl Teams? Pittsburgh and Green Bay; the number 1 and 2 ranked Defenses in the NFL this past season.

Atlanta already has some pretty good pieces in place on the offensive side of the line of scrimmage, and filling in with free agents and mid-level draft picks as a stop gap should, hopefully, be okay as they build up a stronger defense NOW.

Atlanta has to improve their defensive line play. They blew it with Peria Jerry and Jamal Anderson, their LB’s are also thin and we’ve still seen DB issues. In my humble opinion, however, it all starts up front. Abraham is great, but he’s getting older and isn’t on the field all game, and there just isn’t enough pressure up front/up the middle to make QB’s uncomfortable in passing situations, or to clog runs.

Sure, a young offensive lineman, wide receiver, tight end, or running back would be nice, but Atlanta needs to be able to stop others from scoring as badly as they need to score themselves.

I would be in favor of taking a look at the offensive side of the line of scrimmage after next season, after Tony Gonzales says he may retire, the Falcons Offensive line actually does get a year older and becomes more of a risk of losing key players, and adding the receiver and running backs with the higher draft spots.

More and more, it looks like next year, the season will be shortened and I just don’t see a bunch of potential “superstars” popping out in a lot of different positions in this year’s draft like in the past. Do the Falcons need another Wide Receiver RIGHT NOW? No, they’re actually pretty deep and playing pretty well. Do the Falcons need another Tight End RIGHT NOW? I don’t think so. If Tony’s IS coming back, then he’s the best in the business and there’s a couple of other guys on the roster who’ve proven they can also play on Atlanta’s roster; why waste a high draft pick on another Tight End?

Running Back? Maybe…Michael Turner HAS had some injury problems, BUT, Snelling came in and proved to be one of the top reserves in the League, and the two of them made quite a duo. Neither Turner or Snelling was a high draft pick; Tashard Choice (of the Cowboys) wasn’t a high draft pick; even the new star running back of the World Champion Packers wasn’t a high draft pick…why waste a high pick on another running back this season? Is there even one out there this season really worthy?

Now let’s get to the Offensive Linemen…Atlanta actually has a relatively young Offensive Line as compared to other teams, and have hit home runs with free agents, low draft choices, and non-drafted players. I might remind you that for every Pro-Bowl caliber Offensive Lineman selected high in the First Round of the Draft, there’s probably an equal number of “busts”. Why, then, do you want to “risk” another draft pick this season on a position that you really don’t have as much of a need on?

If the Falcons are going to take a risk on any player, or players, this coming draft, I would hope they would go after guys who have a history of health problems (no more Jerry’s with a chronic history of knee problems, or Moore with back problems and didn’t see the field for 2 years) and have a chance to see the field immediately; like they could either be a starter or play in the 2 deep so they could become a starter before the end of THIS season.

If the guy could start THIS season, that should rule out Tight Ends and Running Backs, and should probably rule out Wide Receivers and Offensive Linemen. In other words, this should rule out Offensive players. On the other hand, Defensive Linemen, Linebackers, and Defensive Backs could all start from day one on the Falcons, so THAT’s where the draft picks should be focused on.

old man

February 11th, 2011
7:54 am

Here are the receiving yards for the 12 top rushers in the NFL last year:

604 
468 
85 
245 
317 
341 
167 
383 
314 
556 
477 
507

Guess which one is our top rusher? It’s not just the missing yards. It’s the absence of another receiving threat which makes our passing game less productive. Gotta fix that.

BirdDog

February 11th, 2011
7:56 am

I don’t think they will take a WR with their first pick. Did anybody see what the defense did in the playoff game? They gave up 6 touchdowns and the Packers didn’t punt once! They need the best pass rusher available at #27 IMO.

old man

February 11th, 2011
8:08 am

What are the odds that we improve our defense a lot in 2011 with a rookie, any rookie?

Hawes

February 11th, 2011
8:18 am

The draft looks fairly deep in DE and OT, so either one could be taken with the 27th pick. A lot depends on re-signing Grimes and Clabo, too.

You can find a change of pace back in the third round. Brian Westbrook was something like a 5th round pick. Or you could look at Darren Sproles in FA.

I think the number one pick comes out of the trenches. Or more likely the edge of the trenches.

Unless after a year of watching them practice, they look at Johnson and Hawley and say, “oops”.

DC Dirty Bird

February 11th, 2011
8:21 am

That’s a great point old man. I think Gartrell Johnson scored on a 23 yd swing pass against KC and that was the single highlight of the season for us passing to running backs. Dawg Consultant, I would venture to say you haven’t watched the last two years of Hurricane football if you were to say that Bailey hasn’t made any impact plays. He’s been on the NFL radar since last season and has been the only threat on the Miami D-line for the last two years. He’s not Julius Peppers, but he’s also not that Gholston guy on the Jets. Birddog, when you draft in the late parts of the first round, it usually means you already have a pretty good team, thus we shouldn’t draft based on need alone and draft a 2nd round talent in the 1st round just because there is a perceived need. Glenn, having a great defense is great, but it was Pittsburg’s offense that came back from 24-3 against Baltimore and Green Bay’s offense that put up 24 points on the number 1 scoring defense.

SOUTH GA DAWG FAN

February 11th, 2011
8:28 am

Go for the defensive player that is disruptive and might be able to help force a punt every now and then.

Runnin With The Dawgs

February 11th, 2011
8:30 am

Falcon Chic is right on 7:38 comment. Coming out of the U. ! —- U OF WHAT???

D. Orlando Ledbetter

February 11th, 2011
8:38 am

Old man — Snelling caught a lot of balls. On your improvement with a rookie question. This staff has improved while playing rookies. i.e. Ryan, Lofton, Spoon et al. You could get a DE in free agency — someone sent me a note about Ray Edwards and taking a look at Charles Johnson makes sense.

SOUTH GA DAWG FAN — Forcing punts is a good thing.

Falcon Chic and Running With The Dawgs — Mark Richt came out of the U! Great character guy.

Benny Birds

February 11th, 2011
8:49 am

Lets take Cameron Haywood, Ohio St in Rd1, Casey Matthews, Oregon in Rd2 and bring Camp Bailey home in free agent and move Robinson to Safety(he’s a big hitter, great in run support and give you a 3rd corner on the field). Haywood can play DE or DT.

Midwestbird

February 11th, 2011
8:55 am

Lots of good defensive players have come from the Big Ten. Kerrigan is the next coming of Patrick Kerney. Great career at Purdue and showed his talent at the Senior Bowl. Come on T.D. pull the trigger on this guy!!

BirdDirty

February 11th, 2011
8:56 am

Charles Johnson!! Charles Johnson!! Charles Johnson!! Do I need to say it again?

mountain_jim

February 11th, 2011
9:02 am

I agree about a DE in FA – should have opened the checkbook for Peppers last year when he was available, and given alot less money to Dunta. Defense needs alot, but offense needs ‘explosive’ players also they said and that could be at WR, TE, or RB. I expect all three to be upgraded in FA or draft.

Ron "CHOKE" Mexico

February 11th, 2011
9:04 am

Peria Jerry a bust? the same folks were calling Moore a bust. Now he’s our starting safety. Here’s a news flash for you, players get hurt, TD is good, but he can’t see into the future.

D man

February 11th, 2011
9:11 am

We need to address our biggest issues in free agency with a DE and a CB. Then we can draft Pouncy.

mountain_jim

February 11th, 2011
9:17 am

Don’t need this Pouncey. He can’t play C, can’t snap reliably in the shotgun. We drafted 2 internal oline last year. I wish we could get a better LT somehow, and upgrade the pass-blocking all around.

DC Dirty Bird

February 11th, 2011
9:22 am

DLed, Snelling caught a nominal amount of balls this year. 44 to be exact. The question is not a mere total catches or total yards issue. Its an “explosive plays” issue. We need a back capable of explosive plays coming out of the backfield. Falcon Chic and Running With The Dawgs, stop living in the past and stereotyping players from the U. Andre Johnson, pre and post Finnegan fight is considered one of the highest character players in the league.

D. Orlando Ledbetter

February 11th, 2011
9:31 am

Benny Birds — I like all of those moves. I want to see how Lil’ Cam stacks up at the combine. He seemed to disappear in some games. But he’s a Whitefield Academy/Peachtree Ridge kid.

Ron “Choke” Mexico — Yeah, you can’t call him a bust. We don’t know how bad that knee was. It was telling that they wouldn’t play him on running downs. Must have been super major stuff. However, he had an pretty long injury history coming out of Ole Miss and you’re always gambling when take injury prone guys.

DC Dirty Bird – 44 is nominal? Norwood would have been a good weapon out of the backfield.

North FLA Falcon

February 11th, 2011
9:52 am

We have not had great luck with our recent first draft pix. So try to draft one potential starter with our first pick. This should be somewhere on defense, the best available. Dline, DEnd, LB, CB, whatever. PIck someone with talent, who is hungry, who plays nasty. The later picks should be for guys who will work into the system in a few years. Oline, WR, TE … positions where we already have some talent. Also we should be working on getting some quality FA talent on defense in the offseason. Finally, please re-sign Bryant and Koenen. That’s all I got.

uga_b

February 11th, 2011
10:04 am

I think you have to go FA for an impact DE, which leaves LB, RB, WR, and OL as the most pressing needs. Maybe a corner if another McCourty falls. What makes it hard is that this is a deep draft at DE but not as much in other places.

I still think they go best player available at a need position and not need position’s best player available. I see most value with LB, RB, and WR.

D-Led, which LBs or RBs do you have in play for the Falcons?

BOB

February 11th, 2011
10:09 am

The prospect of Jon Bon Jovi’s cash makes my head spin. Maybe after using some of it for the downpayment on ArthurWorld, AB can get busy in the FA market- the D needs help now!

monty

February 11th, 2011
11:20 am

No one in the(hyperbole) industry was sold on the Falcons come playoff time. I thought they were just biased.(wrong!) In hindsight they were right. Were we as bad as the GreenBay game score? Nope, but we didn’t have the defense and we couldn’t hurt a team with any kind of quick strike capability on offense. The defense was protected most of the year with the offense being able to grind out long time consuming drives. We had no threat at running back to hit a homerun just Turner and a 5 yard cloud of dust. No deep threat on receiving. White had a great year but he has to fight (seemingly) for every pass he catches. Same goes for Gonzalez. No real fear for defenders. Slow offense, bend but don’t break defense, won’t win you any Super Bowls.

Najeh Davenpoop

February 11th, 2011
11:23 am

Would have been better if you had gone with “Mockiavelli: The DOL Killuminati (The 7 Round Theory)”.

opie

February 11th, 2011
11:27 am

D-Led, Falcons don’t need Bailey another project. They should pursue Tamba DE from KC he is a free agent that the Chiefs may tag. He may want to return to a traditional 4-3 as opposed to the 3-4 KC Runs. LT or WR in First Round. Sam Baker would probably excell on the right side because of his short arms.

D. Orlando Ledbetter

February 11th, 2011
11:27 am

Got us some info from my man Omar Kelly (Superhero. Part-time Dolphins reporter and blogger for the Sun-Sentinel.) on Bailey:

RT @AJCFalcons: Give us SoFLA 411 on UM DE Allen Bailey.I have the Falcons taking him http://bit.ly/h1sO0s » Physical freak. Needs coaching

You can follow Omar on twitter.com at @OmarKelly.

D. Orlando Ledbetter

February 11th, 2011
11:32 am

Opie — The pattern is that they won’t spend megabucks in free agency this year. So Tamba might be too costly. Great thinking though. During the process, Sugar Bear Hamilton will let them know if can get Bailey ready to play early. See above, “needs coaching.”

Terrell

February 11th, 2011
11:33 am

Here’s a little info on Torrey Smith:

Height: 6′1
Weight: 205
Projected 40 time: 4.37 (4.26 low or 4.49 high)

Smith declared for the NFL draft shortly after Maryland won their bowl game. He is a red shirt Junior who has already graduated with a degree in Criminology and criminal justice and former coach Ralph Friedgen gave him his blessing to declare for the 2011 NFL draft since Smith wants to help his family financially.

Background:

The Colonial Beach, Virginia native was ranked 28th nationally among dual-threat quarterbacks and Scouts, Inc. ranked him 33rd nationally among wide receivers. After a knee injury he committed to Maryland after Virginia backed out of a scholarship offer (wanting to have him run a second 4.5 for to prove to them his leg was alright). Smith was also recruited by Penn St. Virginia Tech and Maryland. He is the oldest of of 7 kids, Smith helped his single mom, who attended Community College in the day and worked at night, with household chores and earned honor roll grades in school. A major reason why he turned pro was to help support his family financially.

http://vegassharps.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/torrey-smith12.jpg

Scouting Report:

Well put together. Looks & plays the part. Good size, excellent speed and strong. A (Z) wide receiver at Maryland who is also a dangerous return man. Has loose hips and seems to have a knack for finding soft spots in zone coverage. Has more then enough speed to get behind almost any corner. Likes to run go (9) & “posts” (7) routes and runs a good “slug-o” route as well. He can be dangerous when he gets into the open field and when he runs routes “in the seam”. Has decent hands but he allows balls to “get in on him” to much, but that is correctable. Has a great attitude and work ethic. Studies his position and seems to be a quick student. Much more advanced as a receiver then former teammate and current Oakland Raider Darrius Heyward-Bey. Smith is also a really good run blocker and not afraid to “mix it up” with corners and safeties. As a returner Smith set the school record for career all-purpose yardage, which surpassed Lamont Jordan’s previous mark of 4,960 yards. In 2010 he had 65 receptions for 1,065 yards and tied a school record with 12 TD’s.

I asked a couple people I know that are current scouts and they had Smith as a solid 2nd round prospect that could sneak into the late 1st round with a strong combine and pro day.

D. Orlando Ledbetter

February 11th, 2011
11:35 am

(MORE FROM OMAR)
RT @AJCFalcons in 2 years Allen Bailey can become a double digit sack guy if he learned 2 pass rush moves.He’ll do well vs run.Can go inside.

waynester

February 11th, 2011
11:51 am

There’s no way Kerrigan falls to us at 27. Too many teams need DE’s ahead of us. Bailey isn’t among the Elite at his position, and that’s mandatory in a 1st rd pick. Agree with many who opine that FA is where we need to look at D End. That’s how we acquired Abraham. There will still be players who ARE Elite at their positions when we pick–that’s the only way not to totally waste $$$ in rd 1–otherwise, trade down! There are several change-of-pace RBs that will still be available at our 2nd round pick–the every-down type backs will go first(Ingrahm, Leshore) leaving great talent on the board in rd 2…..

American Gangster

February 11th, 2011
12:22 pm

That’s $25,000 Alpaca, you blot that sh.i.t!!!

A_Dirty_Bird_4_life

February 11th, 2011
12:43 pm

Waynester, we traded for Abraham, our 2006 first rd for him the pick was in the low 20’s I believe. Just FYI