Falcons predicted to finish 7-9 by “Outsiders”
BLOGCATIONVILLE — Headed for that last blog-cation before the season starts. Needed to get a few things for you all to nimble on.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan won an ESPY for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Show airs at 9 p.m. Sunday.
Not everyone is predicting greatness for the Falcons in 2009.
The folks over at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, are predicting more doom and gloom. In their eyes, the streak will reach 44 seasons. There will be no playoffs and someone’s pet is probably going to die.
In the publications’ eight page analysis of the Falcons, Rob Weintraub, a local free lancer and TV production worker, points out that over the last 30 years, 17 teams have improved by seven games — including the Falcons and Miami last season — but only the 1998 Jets under Duane Charles Parcells (some folks call him Bill) have improved the next season.
Those other 14 teams, wins decrease by an average for four. That would put the Falcons at 7-9 in 2009.
“Every other team has come back to the pack for various reasons,” Weintraub said. “It’s the NFL, parity rules.”
Part of the Falcons summary reads, “2009: That bar is set much higher, and the team is weighted down by almost certain regression.”
Here’s how they see the Falcons coming back to the pack:
THE DECLINE IN HEALTH: “The more statistical things that we’ve gone through point to injuries. The Falcons were a very healthy team last year. They were fifth-best in terms of our stats: man-games-missed by their starters.
Here's what an ESPY looks like.
“We found that there is no correlation from year-to-year. Teams that stay healthy for one year don’t necessarily stay healthy the next year. In fact, teams will go backwards in that category.
“If you just have a couple of injuries to a couple of linemen, that could be overcome. Now, if Matt Ryan goes down in the second weak of the season, then the whole thing falls apart. There is a great deal of fortune involved.”
Falcons fans have been there. Check 1999, injuries to Jamal “Jam” Anderson not Jamaal “Sackmaster” Anderson and to Chris Chandler the year after going 14-2 and reaching the Super Bowl. That team went 5-11.
THE SCHEDULE: The Falcons don’t have the AFC West and the NFC Central to kick around. They have the AFC East and NFC East.
“The schedule is significantly more difficult,” Weintraub said.
THE CURSE OF 370: The Outsiders have come up with this “Curse of 370” notion.
Here’s how that works, only one running back – Eric Dickerson – has managed to stare down the Curse.
“Any running back who carries 370 times or more in a single season, there is a significant dropoff or injury the next season,” Weintraub said. “Eric Dickerson is the only guy who’s beat that.”
Eric Dickerson
Micheal Turner had 394 carries for 1,742 yards in 17 games last season.
“You are talking about a very high probability that he’s going to experience a significant (dropoff) this year,” Weintraub said. “Now, it would behoove the Falcons greatly to ease off on his carries. They have Jerious Norwood, whom we love as a back.
“If they can establish a real combination back there, that could definitely offset some of the projected decline in Turner’s numbers.”
The great Dickerson went for 1,808 yards on 390 carries in 1983. He followed that up with 2,105 yards on 379 carries in 1984.
In 1988, Dickerson had 388 carries for 1,659 yards and in 1989 he had 1,311 yards on 314 carries.
Sadly, he was worn out at age 29. By the time he got to the Falcons in 1993, Dickerson could only muster 91 yards on 26 carries.
THE X- FACTOR: The Outsiders don’t know what to do with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Tony and October Gonzalez
“We’ve never really had a projection to account for adding a hall of fame tight end, when your biggest need is tight end,” Weintraub said. “It’s obviously a plus, assuming he stays healthy and stays at the level he’s been at.
“He’s also defied all kinds of logic and projections that we’ve done. Our numbers have said they he was going to fall off for the last three years and he hasn’t. That’s a testimony to what a great all-time great player that he is.”
CAN RYAN WIN SHOOT OUTS?: The Outsiders ranks Ryan’s rookie season as the finest of any quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
“They may have to beat teams 35-31 every week,” Weintraub said. “That’s not a sustainable way to go to the playoffs. Now, it can be done, but I think they’ll need a better plan of attack.”
THE DEFENSE: In their regression analysis, more than 100 variables were looked at for each team. They had to consider the ensuing upheaval with replacing five starters on the defense.
“These guys could step up and play lights out,” Weintraub said. “Stephen Nicholas could turn out to be a Pro Bowl linebacker, we’ll see. But the trend over the last 15 years with teams putting (five or more) starters who have played so little into their starting defense, doesn’t bode well.”
CAVEAT: They still have to play the games.
“We projected the Falcons not to be good last year,” Weintraub said. “But (Matt Ryan) significantly out performed the trends. Surely, that can happen again. We certainly acknowledge that there are times when players step up and become superstars.”
IN SUMMATION: A lot has to happen for the Falcons to end that 43-year streak of never posting back-to-back winning seasons.
“Overall, they have a lot of trends, anchoring them and weighing them back to the pack this year,” Weintraub said. “Right now the numbers say they are going to take a step back.”
You can get the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 off their website: www.footballoutsiders.com and print-on-demand copies from Amazon.com in late July.
D.LED’S UNOFFICIAL/BOOTLEG DEPTH CHART
MISS KERI BABY: Falcons need to line up Decatur's Keri Hilson to do the National Anthem to open the season.
Before we get to the depth chart, here are three campers to keep an eye on:
Rashad Bobino, Linebacker, 5-11, 230: Was a big thumper at middle linebacker for the Texas Longhorns. Made the Big 12 team three times. Check out his pro day workout.
Ryan Stanchek, Guard, 6-3, 305: Was a four-year starter at West Virginia. Was all-Big East in 2006 and 2008. Played left tackle in college. Got snubbed by the coaches in the all-conference voting last season.
Thomas Johnson, Defensive tackle, 6-2, 305: His name keeps popping up. Has been with three teams since coming out of Middle Tennessee in 2005. He hasn’t been able to stick with Dallas, Houston or the New York Jets. He made three starts with Houston in 2006.
THE DEPTH CHART
QUARTERBACK: Starter — Matt Ryan. Backups – 2. Chris Redman, 3. D.J. Shockley, and 4. John Parker Wilson.
RUNNING BACK: Starters — Michael Turner and Ovie Mughelli. Backups – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Jason Snelling, 3. Thomas Brown and 4. Verron Haynes.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Starters – Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Backups – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran, 3. Eric Weems, 4. Troy Bergeron, 5. Chandler Williams, 6. Aaron Kelly, 7. Darren Mougey and 8. Bradon Godfrey.
TIGHT ENDS: Starter – Tony Gonzalez. Backups – 1. Ben Hartsock, 2. Justin Peelle, 3. Keith Zinger and 4. Jason Rader.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters – LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Todd McClure, RG Harvey Dahl, RT Tyson Clabo. Backups – Center – 1. Brett Romberg, 2. Ben Wilkerson.
Guards – 1. Jeremy Newberry, 2. Romberg, 3. Wilkerson, 4. Ryan Stanchek, 5. Jose Valez.
Tackles – 1. Will Svitek, 2. Quinn Ojinnaka, 3. Garrent Reynolds, 4. Michael Butterworth.
Falcons All-Pro defensive end John Abraham.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters – RDE John Abraham, RT Peria Jerry, LT Jonathan Babineaux, LDE Chauncey Davis.
Backups DE – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Kroy Biermann, 3. Lawrence Sidbury, 4. Willie Evans and 5. Maurice Lucas. DT – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Trey Lewis, 3. Jason Jefferson, 4. Thomas Johnson, 5. Vance Walker, 6. Tywain Myles
LINEBACKERS: Starters – WLB Michael Peterson, MLB Curtis Lofton, SLB Stephen Nicholas. Backups: 1. Coy Wire, 2. Edmond Miles, 3. Tony Gilbert, 4. Spencer Adkins, 5. Robert James, and 6. Rashad Bobino.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: LCB – Chris Owens, FS – Erik Coleman, SS – William Moore, RCB – Chris Houston. Backups – CB – 1. Chevis Jackson, 2. Brent Grimes, 3. William Middleton, 4. Von Hutchins, 5. David Irons (injured), 6. Glenn Sharpe, 7. Tony Tiller. S – 1. Thomas DeCoud, 2. Jamaal Fudge, 3. Antoine Harris, 4. Eric Brock.
SPECIAL TEAMS – KR – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Thomas Brown. PR – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran. P – Michael Koenen. PK Jason Elam. LS – Mike Schneck.
The Countdown to Training Camp is winding down!
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1,184 comments Add your comment
Dean21
July 19th, 2009
11:58 pm
I agree Nookah, Seminole Warrior did his thing today and I hate that I missed it as well! But his topics were on point and all of the responses were valid choices. I guess I’ll close out the night with my choice…I think the sleeper this season will be Matt Ryan…No one is expecting this kid to duplicate last season..I say, he will better his stats and his play from last season and he will carry the birds to a Division title, playoffs and hopefully a shot a the superbowl this year.
D3, I’m in contact with a member of the Falcons staff and waiting on a response for our meet & greet area at the Branch. Hopefully we can get a set up area early in the AM on August 1st.
Jason, what’s going on my friend? Will you be able to make it to Training Camp?
The cage is back and it’s the best thing rockin on AJC and any other blog!!
Mr. NFL
July 20th, 2009
12:21 am
***Attention All**
Sportscenter & all affiliates can once again resume all highlight reels, as “Mr. NFL” better known as the one and only great Mike Vick, will officially take center stage on all networks starting tomorrow.
Have a nice day!
jason
July 20th, 2009
12:31 am
CBrass, good call on Norwood. I would have to agree enen though I initially picked HD.
BT, ATL is a run first offense. Having said that, in the NFL, the #1 priority is to stop the run. Sometimes you need to pass to set up the run. Also with the run offense you wear down Ds an d eat up clock saving your defense. TD drafted Ryan so ATL would have a decision maker to get into the right play whether it be runn/pass.
2 TE set, smash mouth football, I will take it. Let’s go power I with 2TE and a FB with a 240lb TB.
Sorry I had to break away with out saying goodbye. I had an important dinner to get to. I recieved my plane tickets to Disney World. We leave this coming weekend. Got home and watched the Braves game I recorded. At least they won and scored alot of runs (Sorry, wrong Blog).
Boxcarar
July 20th, 2009
12:36 am
CBreeze, what part of South Georgia? I have family farm just North of Tifton. I also agree about Norwood breaking out. In regards to the OPY, imagine where the Birds would be if Tony G. won it. I also hope that T Brown staying healthy will put him in line for post Norwood playing time.
jason
July 20th, 2009
12:47 am
D3, I still have not gotten registered. I got the user name, and have cheched out the FF site. I am not the most computer savy. I think I miight be overlooking something. I will try again tomorrow afternoon.
Draft on 30 AUG…. That’s my B-Day. Can I just have who I want? LOL!!!
Sounds good to me, I have nothing planned at that time. I will be celebrating My day with mt Son’s. His is 24 AUG.
Seminole, you rocked it today. Had alot of fun. This is probably the best day in the Cage in a while. Gotta go to bed, full day of work tomorrow. I will however be checking in throughout the day. Later.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
8:30 am
Good morning Cage!! First, thanks for the kind words. I’m nothing special; just a passionate fan. Yesterday was all about peeps like Jason and BT. They lit the fire; I was just fortunate to carry the torch for a while. The REAL credit is to be passed to my brothers.
Another week begins and we are moving closer to the start of the process, edition 2009. I’m jacked. CBreeze, if I may call you that, I feel you on the rolls between south GA and ATL/AHN. I make them all each year as I chase the ‘Noles on Saturdays and the “Birds on Sunday. I’m normally dead on Mondays, my forecasts typically suck, but I still have the rush of a hell of a weekend. Hope to see ya at the Dome at least once this season my sister.
BT, we are good my brother. We came from the same point of view on Smitty and his management style. Smitty carefully put this staff together for exactly the reasons you identified.
WR, I see your point on Norwood. It was either CBreeze or Ronde’s sweetie that made the point that we would have to work a deal to keep him. I don’t think we will overpay for him next year. That may make him move on. I love his speed and his ability to break it anytime. I hope he stays. And trust me, I did not miss the “free shoes” reference. I’ll get you. Unca Bob….he is at it again!! LOL.
Again, we are the PREMIER AJC blog. Why? ONE NATION…FALCON NATION!!
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:38 am
I think I just read the absolute dumbest blog. I feel alot more dumber today. I hit the link posted above by an apparent Ryan hater. My word, what some stupind unintelligable people. No thoughts or facts to back their crap up. THe best one was the best shot at pretending to think. Posted was that Flacco was a hell of alot better than Ryand. SOmeone (Unca’Bob) post the stats and compare. Not to mention that Flacco had a top 5 defense protecting his a$$. Add to the fact that BLT played for FGs and not TDs like they always do.
G GS COM/ATT PCT YDS PER TD INT R ATT RTG
Flacco, Joe 16 16 257 428 60.0 2971 6.9 14 12 143 32 80.3
Ryan, Matt 16 16 265 434 61.1 3440 7.9 16 11 157 17 87.7
Now, I am not bashing on Flacco, who I think is a good young QB who will get better and better also. But to say that Flacco is all that much better than Ryan is STUPID at best. Just because you loved MV; that’s not enough to make a statement like that. I loved MV also, but MV is no longer with ATL. MV is in the past, and it is time to move on. To all MV fanatics, if you love MV that much; you were never a TRUE and LOYAL fan of ATL. You were a true and loyal fan to only MV. And you show your selfishness as MV did.
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:46 am
I think Norwood will be moving on after this year. You can’t blame him. He needs to go for that big pay day. Is he a restricted FA? Now saying that he is indeed leaving, then TBrown has to prove he can stay healthy. If not, I see ATL using a mid round pick on a RB. I like that Snelling will be around, but he will be our FB/TB. We will still have a need for another RB if TBrown can’t stay healthy.
Another point on Norwood, He will double his touches this year. By taking more touches away from Turner to lighten his (Turner) workload. He iwll be more dangerous coming out of the backfield as a dump off WR for Ryan. Gining to be interesting seeing what he will provide ATL on Offense. I also don’t see him returning KOs if TBrown is healthy. That will keep him more refreshed and hopefully increase the chances that he can avoid those nicks and stay injury free.
doo mauh mauh maunz
July 20th, 2009
8:53 am
I watched the replay of the Ravens/Dolphins playoff game last night and if someone truly believes Flacco is better than Ryan………well they need to lay down the wacky weed!!
Bait
July 20th, 2009
8:54 am
D Led – please tell someone at AJC.com that M Vick is not on the Falcons anymore; so take hime out of the Falcons Section. He should be in the National News Section with all the other domestic felons.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
8:55 am
Jason, my brother, the fool got to you! Ohhhhhhh, D3 is going to keep you after school, LOL. I saw that poison when I logged on this morn.
The haters will continue my friend; they will not rest until we are having the parade on Peachtree. Then they will try to muscle in our celebration. Nookah would provide a “Nesta” reference right now to calm us down. I’m not schooled in “Nesta” but I do know a damned good Dr. that I will use at this moment.
Quoting ATL’s #1 son:
The ultimate measure of a man (team) is not when he (they) stand in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he (they) stand in times of challenge and controversy….MLK.
This process is going to continue. There is nothing that the haters can do to stop it. So let them have their moment & let them act like silly. Simply put my brother, let them be. In the end, victory, ohhhh a VERY sweet victory, will be that of the FALCON NATION.
Ok…that’s my Monday morning sermon from the pulpit of Warrior Baptist Church. One love; the love of brothers and sisters in the CAGE!!
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
8:57 am
Boxcarar,
Mt. Vernon(about 5-10 mins from Vidalia). I didn’t even know that place existed until I went down for a tryout(Mt. Vernon that is)…LOL
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
8:59 am
Cager’s,
Just a reminder of the value of J Norwood. Last year he had 2138 All-purpose yards. Thats 3rd in the NFL. It also accounts for 27% of Atlanta’s total yardage.
Vick Supporter
July 20th, 2009
9:03 am
Mike Vick’s comeback starts today…..
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
9:10 am
Unca Bob, I concur on his value. But value will come at a price. If he is willing to take “reserve” like money to stay, he is a keeper. But I do no think he will. Speed is much desired in the league and there will be a team that thinks he could be the man. “Little” guys like Warrick Dunn and currently Steve Slaton have enjoyed success. I think Norwood could as well. Thoughts, my veteran brother?
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
9:16 am
You know what they say…if you have haters you’re obviously doing something right. Judging by the amount of awards that Matty has recieved and the games that he won(without a top 10 defense to support him) he is most definitely doing something right. So by all means…haters continue to hate. It’s only going to make him work harder and get even better.
SeminoleWarrior,
I do not miss driving down those roads…it was like traveling to the middle of nowhere on the most god awful stretch of highway(I-16). The only time I take that road now is when I’m heading to the Cocktail party. I’m going to try and make a game and I’ll be sure to let you guys know. LOL and calling me CBreeze is fine…I’ve been called worse.
Gotta get some work done…catch up with you guys and gals later.
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
9:17 am
Seminole Warrior,
Last year J Norwood made $450,000. M Turner made $16,000,000. What would you do? Me too.
What!!!
July 20th, 2009
9:23 am
Watched the Ravens/Dolphins replay last night and Flacco is not even close to being as good as Ryan.
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
9:27 am
Seminole Warrior,
At 5′11″ and 202 lbs, he would need to bulk up some, but, yes I feel he could tote the load.
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
9:30 am
Cager’s
One more point. He is perhaps the fastest man in football. He ran a 4.26 forty at the ‘07 Combine.
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
9:34 am
er, umm, ‘06 Combine.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
9:34 am
Unca Bob, I see your point. I raised this point last week and I will do it again today. Priority one next season will be the OL. The moves that they made this year were purely for depth. One year tenders to Clabo and Dahl will have to be turned into long term deals if the process is to continue. Blalock is a RFA next year so we will have to move sooner rather than later on him as well. Don’t get me wrong…I trust in TD to get it done. We also have to figure out what we are going to do with our punter next season. He is not a long range bomber with his kicks but he is one hell of an assess when it comes to field positioning.
Given those scenarios, Norwood may not be the priority that some may think he is. Again, the man has MAD skills and we could definately do well to keep him. My ACC brother, the keeper of the Junkit (aka Wreck) makes a great point about young talent available in next year’s draft.
I just think that the team will let him move on given the greater needs that will surface next offseason.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
9:37 am
Norwood is a little on the fragile side but with conditioning, I think he could do it Unca B. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out. But that OL situation is key. I would not want to see that continuity broken up fo any reason. I’m sure MT and MR would agree with me.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
9:43 am
The key question is would he play second fiddle to Turner for what would have to be considerably less cash? I can not see us having two large contracts tied up at the RB position especially when there will be more pressing needs in other areas.
Wonder what the rest of the Cage thinks Unca B?
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
9:52 am
Seminole Warrior,
I agree that we need to get our O-Line packaged up. I know it will happen, it’s just when. I’m not sure it is a priority right now but I would rather get it done sooner. M Koenen wore the franchise tag this year and the signing deadline has passed. He will have to wait until this season is over.
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
9:57 am
Good question. Some have said he will go for the money. Others feel he will stick around for a shot at The Ring. Me, I have no idea. J Norwood is the only person that can answer that.
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
10:06 am
Another smallish RB making a living is K Faulk. 5′8″ 202 lbs.
jason
July 20th, 2009
10:16 am
Sorry, We all slip up from time to time. It wasn’t the love for MV, It was that people actually think Flacco is that much better than Ryan. I usaually don’t fall for that crap, But….
I agree on the Norwood points. I to think OL will have to addressed before we get to Norwood. I also think an OL will be drafted around round 2 next year. THe question is, Is Norwood a restricted FA next year? If so, we hold the cards. We either match the offer or let him go and gain compensation. By doing that, You know TD likes his draft picks.
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
10:25 am
jason,
Norwood will be an UFA and if not signed by Feb., he can sign with any team for no compensation.
Nathan Mayer
July 20th, 2009
10:26 am
Turner had 376 carries last year, not 394.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/6913/career;_ylt=AlmpcX1BoXx9jhULk2Za87b.uLYF
Unca' Bob
July 20th, 2009
10:30 am
Nathan Mayer,
The 376 carries are for the regular season. If you count the 18 carries against the Cards post-season, it does come to 394.
WR
July 20th, 2009
10:31 am
Not to take anything away from Norwood but I see him needing to have a big year to really garner big time RB money. Yes he accounted for a major portion of the Falcons yardage, but when you consider that 827 of the 2138 yards were from rushing and receiving, the rest was return yardage. Now Pittsburgh give up 13.9 points per game and were number one in defense, that averages out to either 5 FGs or 2 TDs per game. Using the 5 FGs as a point of reference, an average kickoff return specialist averages between 18-20 yards per return. Thats in the ball park of 100 yards a game which translates to nearly 1600 yards over a season. The Falcons played bend but don’t break defense last year, opponents were scoring often but they weren’t scoring TDs. Norwood had the third highest amount of kickoff returns in the NFC which means he was returning alot of kickoffs, which also means his all-purpose yardage would substantially be inflated. There’s no comparison between Norwood and Dunn, Dunn was of a different breed, no one had saw a back that small move between the tackles as Dunn did, he had a knack for avoiding the big time hits, Slaton is somewhat the same, yes Norwood is built with tremendous speed but he’s not all that lose in the hips and you can’t train for that, he’s fast more than he is quick. The thing is his production actually dropped last year from his previous two years, and now we think he can be a full time starter, if that were the case, why would the birds invest so much money in Turner and Norwood was already on the roster,why, because they know he can not carry a full load.
jason
July 20th, 2009
10:32 am
Unca’ Bob, That sucks. All you can do is start negotiations. Throw out a number and see if you are warm. If we indeed lose Norwood, I will miss what he brings to the team, But ATL won’t skip a beat. With the system ATL has in place they could fill the back up RB spot rather quickly (TBrown) provided he is healthy. TBrown would be used in the same way to avoid over exposure to injury.
BT
July 20th, 2009
10:47 am
Good morning fellow Cagers,
S.W. yeah, we are cool my brother.
I really like to talking Falcon football philosophy, strategy and personnel and the Cage is the top place on the web to do just that.
Your earlier sermon was just preaching to the choir.
On the Jerious Norwood situation, I see both sides of the debate but I lean to the side of getting ”J smooth” re-signed.
He is too big of an assset to let get away.
Unca Bob is dead on point.
One point no one has brought up is, the up coming CBA and it`s ramications in keeping our core players.
With that, I with the idea of going LB and TE early in the 2010 draft to groom Tony G. and Petterson`s eventual replacements but the O- line will not be ignored..
Laters, so much to say but so little time to say it.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
10:50 am
WR, my Norwood/Dunn comparison was in physical statue only. We share the same view on the RB situation. The GA faithful seems high on TBrown and he is a low cap figure so if he is healthy and looks good, I think the Falcons will stay with him. Norwood is cool with the role now but when it about his long-term, unless he wants to accept a Kevin Faulk like role, Norwood will be gone next year. I can’t see him not wanting the money.
OL HAS to be a priority if the process it to continue. With two of five starters potential UFAs next season, and a third a RFA, we have to begin to address as soon as this season is over and definately before Februrary. The depth we added is simply that…depth. Reynolds may be an heir apprarent with Clabo moving back inside to guard. But it would be a damned shame to break up CLub Nasty…Clabo and Dahl. They owned the right side for the vast majority of the season. And with another year under coach B, I think they are Pro Bowl potential.
WR
July 20th, 2009
10:52 am
Unca’Bob, yes K.Faulk is making a living but in yet another back up role, plus he has a different build. Norwood is not going to gain much lower body strength no matter how much he works out, its the way he’s built. Look at Dunn, he was of small stature but he was built proportionately, meaning it was spread evenly throughout and actually he had pretty big legs for his size. Norwood is built like a long distance track athlete. His legs are extremely thin and he has admited himself that he has never been able to add much muscle strength to his legs. Every good everydown back in the league whether prototype size or smaller, past and present, have powerfully built legs, including Steve Slaton. The legs are what helps them take the constant pounding and gain strength in the fourth quarter, that is why Norwood stays so nicked up, his upper body is strong, but his lower body is weak, he’s just not built for a constant pounding. I do think he will get a substantial raise either from the Falcons or another team because more teams are focusing on the idea of having a two-headed monster, but IMHO no way is a team going to look at Norwood as there feature back.
WR
July 20th, 2009
10:59 am
As far as the OL goes, I see the birds looking at the center position really soon. McClure is getting on up there and his replacement needs to be groomed. As important as LT are the center position is one of the most important because they make the line calls. LT and LG are set, as long as McClure doesn’t decide to retire, the center position is set for another couple of years. Dahl and Clabo could be problematic. First they both excelled beyond expectations last year, another year of similar work or even an increase in production from both could put them in line for serious raises. The Falcons drafted a guard this year to groom, I see center and RT as possible selection points next year, along with getting a TE to groom.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
11:01 am
Jason.. Remember, barring a deal by TD, we have no second round selection in the ‘10 draft. But I could see a deal being made. And I can easily see Blalock being tendered with 2nd round value just like Clabo and Dahl were this past spring.
BT, you raise a great point on the upcoming CBA issues. That is why the move last week to get the minority partners on board was key. Mr. Blank is a great man. He has also shared a hell of a lot of money with the community. HD is in my stock portfolio, as I am sure it is in the plans of most CAGE members. Well, it has taken some major hits over the past few years. That means that AB is possibly at a little disadvantage to the wanna be Steinbrenners of the NFL (Jones, Synder).
The nearly $50 million he has pumped into the Dome is a blessing. The old girl is still a fine place I think but his deal with the state is crippling his revenue stream. That too is another reason why we have to solidfy the young core quickly and prudently. Challenges…but I trust that TD, AB, and others are working this as we speak.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
11:07 am
WR..again, we agree. The core of any successful offense is the OL. We need to keep them both. McClure has been a great leader and assest. I see another year or two max out of him. Wilkerson was a Rimington Award winner as the nation’s best center when he came out of LSU a few years back. Romberg was fairly effective with the Rams but projects as a B/U. But the long term talent in Dahl, Clabo, Blalock, and Baker are just too damned sweet to lose. MR and that line could be dominate for a long time.
WR
July 20th, 2009
11:08 am
Defensively, if Trey Lewis is healthy and Vance Walker can prove he was alot better, in my opinion, then a seventh round selection, the DL is set for years to come. The secondary is loaded with talent, although very young talent. LB is a concern, I expect big things from Nicholas and Lofton, but Peterson is a stop gap plug, yes he could have a good year or two left but ultimately time is not on his side. I’ve heard nothing but good things about Robert James, but I have seen nothing, not even stand out special teams play, so I have nothing to go on, except word of mouth and his college days as the beast, until proven wrong, LB is another point of attack in the draft in my opinion. Now if somehow Smitty and company get the lights to turn on in Spencer Adkins head, the Falcons are set, that guy moves like Derrick Brooks and he’s faster, he is actually as fast as Norwood which is unbelievable, but the U of Miami wasn’t able to help him turn on the lights.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
11:10 am
Back with WR one more time. Norwood will not be the feature back except in a few situations where team value speed. But I do think a team will overpay for his services. The question is should ATL be that team? I do not think they will do it.
RB is one position where you can find diamonds in the ruff more often than not.
WR
July 20th, 2009
11:13 am
You know you are getting old when you were born in atlanta, attended games in the old AFCS, you watched as the Falcons moved to the dome, you watch as AFCS was torn down and Turner put up and now the Dome is out of date, I still have tickets to the first game ever played in the dome, it feels like it was just yesterday but that was nearly twenty years ago.
WR
July 20th, 2009
11:15 am
No, do not overpay for Norwood, I don’t think TD would, he comes from the NE school of thought. They don’t overpay for anyone, if you become a disruption because of it you can leave.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
11:16 am
Points well stated on the defensive line WR. Games are won in the trenches. I’m VERY anxious to see what James can bring to the field. James and Biermann are two players that I truly want to see in the preseason. I think their upside is immense. Adkins will be a special teamer.
SeminoleWarrior
July 20th, 2009
11:21 am
WR. I was at that game, Atlanta beat Philadelphia in exhibition weekend to open the Georgia Dome. And man, the old AFCS gave us some great moments as well. I even enjoyed Olympic baseball in there with my son (then 8 years old) during the Olympics. Memories.
As far as a new stadium, the model I would love for AB and the team to look at is Raymond James in Tampa. I looooove that stadium!! That is the roadtrip I HAVE to make each year.
jason
July 20th, 2009
11:24 am
Seminole, Thanks for reminding me. I think we need another OL anyway. Clabo and Dakl played out of their minds last year. Can they keep it up?
Depth at LB is of extreme imoortance. It is the only position I see as a weakness due to lack of depth. I could see 2 if not 3 LBs drafted next year. Peteson is a stop gap. James needs to step up and push Peterson for some PT. Also Adkins needs to play ST this year and go through practice and learn from the other LBs. He is a developemental player who will be a find in about 2 years or so.
Sarah B
July 20th, 2009
11:27 am
Hey WR who you calling old!!! I also attended at AFCS a lot. But I’m not old!!! Just better. LOL
Sarah B
July 20th, 2009
11:33 am
SW I went to the Tampa game last year too. Wow that stadium is really nice. But very hot though on Sept 14th. Arrived Friday, visited M&D, spent Saturday at Fort Desots Beach in St. Pete, Game on Sunday, home on Monday. Very nice trip! Oh yeah and we stayed at a nice Comfort Inn right across from JRS and it had a pool with no rules. Very nice!
WR
July 20th, 2009
11:33 am
Seminole you have a good memory, yeah it was so exciting, I remember wondering about the color scheme though. Looked like a gigantic bathroom at first. We had box seats, there nice but kind of take you out of the interaction with the fans, seemed like we were sitting with a bunch of stiffs. I agree with you and Jason on James, I have heard so much about this guy and now I want to see him play, if he is half as good as some people say, the LB position will go from a weakness to a strength. By the way, I know he won’t be available when the birds pick, but what do you think of Dwyer, I know what FSU thinks.
Hugh Jaynus
July 20th, 2009
11:44 am
I am thinking of making my first TC this year. Where is the best place to hang out (where do all the cool kids go), get autograpghs, etc.? I like the folks that post here, and seem slike a good group to be around for this.