Falcons predicted to finish 7-9 by “Outsiders”
BLOGCATIONVILLE — Headed for that last blog-cation before the season starts. Needed to get a few things for you all to nimble on.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan won an ESPY for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Show airs at 9 p.m. Sunday.
Not everyone is predicting greatness for the Falcons in 2009.
The folks over at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, are predicting more doom and gloom. In their eyes, the streak will reach 44 seasons. There will be no playoffs and someone’s pet is probably going to die.
In the publications’ eight page analysis of the Falcons, Rob Weintraub, a local free lancer and TV production worker, points out that over the last 30 years, 17 teams have improved by seven games — including the Falcons and Miami last season — but only the 1998 Jets under Duane Charles Parcells (some folks call him Bill) have improved the next season.
Those other 14 teams, wins decrease by an average for four. That would put the Falcons at 7-9 in 2009.
“Every other team has come back to the pack for various reasons,” Weintraub said. “It’s the NFL, parity rules.”
Part of the Falcons summary reads, “2009: That bar is set much higher, and the team is weighted down by almost certain regression.”
Here’s how they see the Falcons coming back to the pack:
THE DECLINE IN HEALTH: “The more statistical things that we’ve gone through point to injuries. The Falcons were a very healthy team last year. They were fifth-best in terms of our stats: man-games-missed by their starters.
Here's what an ESPY looks like.
“We found that there is no correlation from year-to-year. Teams that stay healthy for one year don’t necessarily stay healthy the next year. In fact, teams will go backwards in that category.
“If you just have a couple of injuries to a couple of linemen, that could be overcome. Now, if Matt Ryan goes down in the second weak of the season, then the whole thing falls apart. There is a great deal of fortune involved.”
Falcons fans have been there. Check 1999, injuries to Jamal “Jam” Anderson not Jamaal “Sackmaster” Anderson and to Chris Chandler the year after going 14-2 and reaching the Super Bowl. That team went 5-11.
THE SCHEDULE: The Falcons don’t have the AFC West and the NFC Central to kick around. They have the AFC East and NFC East.
“The schedule is significantly more difficult,” Weintraub said.
THE CURSE OF 370: The Outsiders have come up with this “Curse of 370” notion.
Here’s how that works, only one running back – Eric Dickerson – has managed to stare down the Curse.
“Any running back who carries 370 times or more in a single season, there is a significant dropoff or injury the next season,” Weintraub said. “Eric Dickerson is the only guy who’s beat that.”
Eric Dickerson
Micheal Turner had 394 carries for 1,742 yards in 17 games last season.
“You are talking about a very high probability that he’s going to experience a significant (dropoff) this year,” Weintraub said. “Now, it would behoove the Falcons greatly to ease off on his carries. They have Jerious Norwood, whom we love as a back.
“If they can establish a real combination back there, that could definitely offset some of the projected decline in Turner’s numbers.”
The great Dickerson went for 1,808 yards on 390 carries in 1983. He followed that up with 2,105 yards on 379 carries in 1984.
In 1988, Dickerson had 388 carries for 1,659 yards and in 1989 he had 1,311 yards on 314 carries.
Sadly, he was worn out at age 29. By the time he got to the Falcons in 1993, Dickerson could only muster 91 yards on 26 carries.
THE X- FACTOR: The Outsiders don’t know what to do with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Tony and October Gonzalez
“We’ve never really had a projection to account for adding a hall of fame tight end, when your biggest need is tight end,” Weintraub said. “It’s obviously a plus, assuming he stays healthy and stays at the level he’s been at.
“He’s also defied all kinds of logic and projections that we’ve done. Our numbers have said they he was going to fall off for the last three years and he hasn’t. That’s a testimony to what a great all-time great player that he is.”
CAN RYAN WIN SHOOT OUTS?: The Outsiders ranks Ryan’s rookie season as the finest of any quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
“They may have to beat teams 35-31 every week,” Weintraub said. “That’s not a sustainable way to go to the playoffs. Now, it can be done, but I think they’ll need a better plan of attack.”
THE DEFENSE: In their regression analysis, more than 100 variables were looked at for each team. They had to consider the ensuing upheaval with replacing five starters on the defense.
“These guys could step up and play lights out,” Weintraub said. “Stephen Nicholas could turn out to be a Pro Bowl linebacker, we’ll see. But the trend over the last 15 years with teams putting (five or more) starters who have played so little into their starting defense, doesn’t bode well.”
CAVEAT: They still have to play the games.
“We projected the Falcons not to be good last year,” Weintraub said. “But (Matt Ryan) significantly out performed the trends. Surely, that can happen again. We certainly acknowledge that there are times when players step up and become superstars.”
IN SUMMATION: A lot has to happen for the Falcons to end that 43-year streak of never posting back-to-back winning seasons.
“Overall, they have a lot of trends, anchoring them and weighing them back to the pack this year,” Weintraub said. “Right now the numbers say they are going to take a step back.”
You can get the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 off their website: www.footballoutsiders.com and print-on-demand copies from Amazon.com in late July.
D.LED’S UNOFFICIAL/BOOTLEG DEPTH CHART
MISS KERI BABY: Falcons need to line up Decatur's Keri Hilson to do the National Anthem to open the season.
Before we get to the depth chart, here are three campers to keep an eye on:
Rashad Bobino, Linebacker, 5-11, 230: Was a big thumper at middle linebacker for the Texas Longhorns. Made the Big 12 team three times. Check out his pro day workout.
Ryan Stanchek, Guard, 6-3, 305: Was a four-year starter at West Virginia. Was all-Big East in 2006 and 2008. Played left tackle in college. Got snubbed by the coaches in the all-conference voting last season.
Thomas Johnson, Defensive tackle, 6-2, 305: His name keeps popping up. Has been with three teams since coming out of Middle Tennessee in 2005. He hasn’t been able to stick with Dallas, Houston or the New York Jets. He made three starts with Houston in 2006.
THE DEPTH CHART
QUARTERBACK: Starter — Matt Ryan. Backups – 2. Chris Redman, 3. D.J. Shockley, and 4. John Parker Wilson.
RUNNING BACK: Starters — Michael Turner and Ovie Mughelli. Backups – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Jason Snelling, 3. Thomas Brown and 4. Verron Haynes.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Starters – Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Backups – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran, 3. Eric Weems, 4. Troy Bergeron, 5. Chandler Williams, 6. Aaron Kelly, 7. Darren Mougey and 8. Bradon Godfrey.
TIGHT ENDS: Starter – Tony Gonzalez. Backups – 1. Ben Hartsock, 2. Justin Peelle, 3. Keith Zinger and 4. Jason Rader.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters – LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Todd McClure, RG Harvey Dahl, RT Tyson Clabo. Backups – Center – 1. Brett Romberg, 2. Ben Wilkerson.
Guards – 1. Jeremy Newberry, 2. Romberg, 3. Wilkerson, 4. Ryan Stanchek, 5. Jose Valez.
Tackles – 1. Will Svitek, 2. Quinn Ojinnaka, 3. Garrent Reynolds, 4. Michael Butterworth.
Falcons All-Pro defensive end John Abraham.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters – RDE John Abraham, RT Peria Jerry, LT Jonathan Babineaux, LDE Chauncey Davis.
Backups DE – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Kroy Biermann, 3. Lawrence Sidbury, 4. Willie Evans and 5. Maurice Lucas. DT – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Trey Lewis, 3. Jason Jefferson, 4. Thomas Johnson, 5. Vance Walker, 6. Tywain Myles
LINEBACKERS: Starters – WLB Michael Peterson, MLB Curtis Lofton, SLB Stephen Nicholas. Backups: 1. Coy Wire, 2. Edmond Miles, 3. Tony Gilbert, 4. Spencer Adkins, 5. Robert James, and 6. Rashad Bobino.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: LCB – Chris Owens, FS – Erik Coleman, SS – William Moore, RCB – Chris Houston. Backups – CB – 1. Chevis Jackson, 2. Brent Grimes, 3. William Middleton, 4. Von Hutchins, 5. David Irons (injured), 6. Glenn Sharpe, 7. Tony Tiller. S – 1. Thomas DeCoud, 2. Jamaal Fudge, 3. Antoine Harris, 4. Eric Brock.
SPECIAL TEAMS – KR – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Thomas Brown. PR – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran. P – Michael Koenen. PK Jason Elam. LS – Mike Schneck.
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1,184 comments Add your comment
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
4:52 pm
Jerry/Lewis and Anderson/Babs; our DT rotation. Size and speed in each package. Two downs each; keeps you fresh and in attack mode constantly.
Walker and one other DT will add depth.
Moore and DeCoud will wage one heck of a battle at the SS position this preseason. Moore is healthy and if you saw him in his junior season, he is a terror.
I love Abe but I think that we are preparing to transition to the future. He will have to take less money to say in ATL; His age and history of injury make him a liability when it comes to a big time deal. Besides, Davis, Sid, and Biermann are waiting in the wings.
Nicholas is ready to play on the big stage. His biggest obstacle, his son’s health, is a much clearer picture now through the Graces. His persistance has not gone unnoticed in that difficult time. He will not let Smitty/BVG down. Lofton is set; James and Adkins are ones to watch.
Owens will give Hutchins all he can handle in the battle to start at LCB. Grimes has the heart at times so don’t count him out.
The process…it continues.
Nookah
July 18th, 2009
5:21 pm
Seminole, Wabe, Jason and all who have participated, I am indeed intrigued and learning a lot from the discussion going on. This is really and truly a football blog.
Perhaps we need to appoint officially some Deans, Professors and Associate Professors of the newly named Falcon Nation U.
Go Falcons!!!
Nuff respect everytime!!!
CBrass
July 18th, 2009
5:32 pm
Great post guys. I’m learning alot from all of you. This is going to be one chick who knows alot about the game pretty soon…LOL I do have one question I saw that jason posted:
“The great thin about the Tampa 2 is that you can run it with any package, 3-4 or 4-3. Even some Nickel or Dime.”
What is the different between a nickel and dime package?
jason
July 18th, 2009
5:44 pm
Nookah, I amby no means a Dean or Professor. Coach Ken is the Dean and Unca Bon is the lead Professor.
CBrass Nickel is 5 DBS, 3 CBs and 2 Safeties. Dime is 6, 4/2, and there is a Quarter that is basicly all of your DBs (7)with 3 DL, and a LB.
jason
July 18th, 2009
5:50 pm
Where’s D3, Unca Bob? could drop us a hello…. We holding it down for you. Been a great conversation today. Keep it up guya and gals….
BT
July 18th, 2009
5:58 pm
Good job explaining the question Jason. And CBrass, the antithesis of the nickel and dime package is the Rhino or stacking the box where the safety(s) moves up into the LB`s area causing an 8 or 9 man front.
Mostly used in short yardage situations.
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:04 pm
BT, we all are sharing the knowledge in the cage today. To piggyback your post. William Moore will perfect the Rhino this year. He will essentially be an extra LB in short yardage situations this year.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
6:08 pm
Hang in there, CBrass. You are doing just fine.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
6:09 pm
Moore has the potential to be a serious candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year. He is capable of that kind of impact.
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:14 pm
SeminoleWarrior, I agree. Moore plays an impact position at Safety. He will have an impact against the run and the pass. There is alot of talk about the battle between him and DeCoud. I don’t agree. I think both will see the field alot this year playing to both’s strengths. Moore will see more time vs. run and DeCoud more vs. Pass.
D3
July 18th, 2009
6:17 pm
What’s My Fellow ‘Cagers? Tied up at the moment a little, watching the little WR today while the House CEO went to see the new Harry Potter. I’ll definitely be back in full force a little later.
Great convo’s going on today. And also masterful discipline in not taking the hate bait from the vitriol fishers. Its amazing how they will always pop up on new blogs for a little while, just waiting for someone to grab on. Nice work keeping the eye on the (Foot)ball.
Back a little later ladies and gents…….
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
6:23 pm
I agree Jason. Give us a heck of a safety set for the long term. And recall that Coleman has only been in the league five-six years so there is some tread left there as well.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
6:24 pm
D3, how is the little one? Ready to sport that Falcons jersey yet?
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:26 pm
SeminoleWarrior
I like our Safeties. Moore, DeCoud, Coleman, and Harris. I like the CBs also. We just got to get them some experience. On that sleepers call a little while ago, I picked Owens as starting CB. As soon as the Bye week. He has to much spped and ball instincts. He might move Houston to the bech if Houston does’t improve this year. Back to the Safeties, I think all 4 of them compliment each other well. If Moore hold true to college, he will have a nose for the ball like Coleman.
Najeh Davenpoop
July 18th, 2009
6:26 pm
Normally I would say it’s impossible to predict what kind of an impact the schedule will play since parity dictates that teams change a lot from season to season. But last year’s Falcons didn’t just have an easy schedule — they had arguably one of the easier schedules faced by any team since the 2002 realignment. You don’t often get to play 4 of the 5 weakest teams in the entire league. For this reason, more than anything else, the prediction of the Falcons regressing this season seems on point. Will they finish under .500? Maybe, maybe not. But I think it’s a safe bet they don’t win 11 games again.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
6:26 pm
The REAL battle in the secondary will be between Grimes, Hutchins, and Owens. Don’t see much of a challenge to Houston on the other side but you never know. Thoughts?
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:28 pm
Najeh Davenpoop, Good point, I think that’s why alot of people are saying that ATL might be a better team this year than last, but yet have a worse record.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
6:31 pm
I agree in regards to Owens. He reminds of Ronde Barber with more speed. Oops…I mentioned a Barber. Look out….here comes Lady Sarah. LOL.
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:31 pm
SeminoleWarrior,
Agree, it is Houston’s job to lose at the moment. Houston needs to step it up this year in his third. He needs to be the leader of the CBs, second in command to Coleman for the Secondary. I am saying that Owens could step into Houston’s spot if Houston doesn’t step it up. Smitty is all about competition. And competition doesn’t stop once regular season starts. I say coming out of the bye you will have Houston and Owens starting with Jackson at the nickel. I also think there will be a rotation with Hutchins and Grimes. Middleton will be a ST this year.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
6:32 pm
9-7…winning season. The process continues as the team grows.
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:33 pm
I am awaiting her post as I type this. You know Ronde is her favorite. (did I spell that right?)
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:34 pm
SeminoleWarrior
I would take 9-7 as long as we show consistent improvement. Continuing the process. The process will never be fully complete; at least not until we win a Super Bowl.
Memory Lane
July 18th, 2009
6:38 pm
http://www.examiner.com/x-1778-Atlanta-Falcons-Examiner~y2009m7d16-week208flashback
Remember the days!
it's me again
July 18th, 2009
6:42 pm
http://www.examiner.com/x-1778-Atlanta-Falcons-Examiner~y2009m7d16-Week408flashback
This one sucks – ouch!
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
6:44 pm
Yall don’t think Jackson’s in the mix at corner? I just figured he’d add a bit more size to the group.
William Moore just seems like a ‘Rodney Harrison type’ safety to me. He’s someone who’ll get up to the line of scrimmage within seconds and light up the ball carrier. I think we’ll be seeing him alot in early downs (running downs) whereas we’ll see a bit more DeCoud in passing downs.
Heard he was projected to be a Top 10 Pick if he jumped after his junior season though, that says alot – could be THE STEAL of the draft.
I’m a bit surprised Owens is getting this much recognition this early, he must be the truth. We’ll have to wait for camp + preseason to get a better scope as to how good the kid really is.
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:45 pm
Memory Lane
Thanks for the read. That was the turning point for Ryan. Ging from rookie to Leader of this team. Thanks, enjoyed it.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
6:47 pm
Going to break for a while…take the First out to dinner. Will catch up with the Cage later. Keep the flow alive!!
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:49 pm
Wabe, I think Houston and Jackson will start at CBs. I like Jackson size against opponets more physical WRs. I think Owens is that good also. I see Owens and Jackson flipping after the bye week. Jackson going back to Nickel. I could be wrong. If I am I will still be happy knowing that the best players are at their best positions.
I also agree with you on the Moore/Harrison comparison.
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:50 pm
SeminoleWarrior
Later, it has been good…
dan
July 18th, 2009
6:52 pm
7-9 is certainly a possibility. But making that prediction based on the organization’s history is small minded. In 1998, Jamal Anderson was the work horse for that team on offense. Chris Chandler was a solid QB, but he was always fragile. And none of those Falcons teams ever had great depth. If Chandler went down, we had Tony Grazani, Danny Kanell, or ancient ass Steve DeBerg.Dan Reeves was a decent coach but he was an AWFUL GM and really set the organization back a few years.
But this reguime is different. Matt Ryan is the real deal folks, and that’s 60% of it in the NFL.And for the first time in well…ever, the Falcons have balance on defense with a one-two punch in Turner and Norwood. Also, if Ryan goes down, Redmon can guide the team as a back up. I really enjoyed watching the Falcons last season. They played with a lot of passion, which is more than I can say for my Bulldogs! Hopefully they can build on what they started last year.
Stat Checker
July 18th, 2009
6:52 pm
http://www.examiner.com/x-1778-Atlanta-Falcons-Examiner~y2009m7d16-Week408flashback
Against top 10 defense – this hurts!
jason
July 18th, 2009
6:54 pm
dan, well said. Ditto on the DAWGS as well.
Stat Checker
July 18th, 2009
6:59 pm
http://www.examiner.com/x-1778-Atlanta-Falcons-Examiner~y2009m7d18-week1108flashback
vs a “bottom” 5 defense!
Stat Checker
July 18th, 2009
7:02 pm
http://www.examiner.com/x-1778-Atlanta-Falcons-Examiner~y2009m7d18-playoffs08flashback
1 and done in the playoffs!
Madden NFL 10 – 1QT Atlanta FALCON vs Kansas City CHIEFS GAMEPLAY … | Betting FBCC: Atlanta Falcons
July 18th, 2009
7:09 pm
[...] Falcons predicted to finish 7-9 by “Outsiders” | Atlanta Falcons …Falcons QB Matt Ryan won an ESPY for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Show airs at 9 p.m. Sunday. Not everyone is predicting greatness for the Falcons in 2009. The folks over at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, are predicting more doom and … [...]
Ken Strickland
July 18th, 2009
7:09 pm
SEMINOLE WARRIOR-PJerry can be much better than WSapp. The real unsung hero of that Tampa Bay DL was DT Anthony McFarland. Yes, the same AMcFarland that completely turned the Colts DEF that was leading the NFL in rushing yds allowed, before his arrival around midseason, into a SB winning DEF. Sapps style of play, and his ability to provide his own PR, made him a celebrity. However, he was exposed when McFarland went down with a season ending injury. Without McFarland next to him, Sapp became a liability, especially against the run. That’s one of the main reasons the Bucs let him go, along with SS JLynch.
PJerry’s awkward build, which is short, squat and compact, and his unbelievable quickness, agility and speed for someone his size and height, makes him a nightmare for the much bigger and taller OT’s. They can’t effectively get under his shoulder pads to stand him up, and they can’t match his speed and quickness off the ball. He’s one of those DT’s that might very well have more success against the bigger taller NFL OLinemen.
Our DEF will be one of the, if not the, quickest, fastest and most athletic DEF’s in the NFL. Most of the OFF and DEF players on this yr DEF will be players selected or retained by our new coaching staff. There will be no stop gap, illfitting, or one dimensional players like SS LMilloy, OLB’s KBrooking and MBoley or DT GJackson on this yrs DEF. With the youth, talent and depth we now have at every DEF position, we can actually do what OFF traditionally do, and that’s wear opponents down by the 4th qtr. Last yr, we sacrificed our pass rushing ability early by limiting DE JAbraham reps, in an effort to save him for the 4th qtr. This yr, with the emergence of KBiermann and the presence of physical speciman LSidbuty, we can continue to save JAbraham for the 4th qtrs, while still maintaining a solid outside pass rush during the 1st 3qtrs.
With only one season and 2 drafts under their belts, TD and Smitty have done an unbelievable job of collecting not just a wealth of talent, but talent that totally fits what they’re trying to accomplish. Cpnsider the following: The Falcons finished 23rd in total OFF in 07. With a totally new coaching staff, a totally new OFF philosophy and system, and after getting rid of 5 veteran starters, we finished 6th in total OFF in 08. For a bunch of so called experts to refuse to believe the same coaching staff that pulled a rabbit out of the hat with last yrs limited DEF can’t accomplish even more with the infusion of talent and depth we now have on this yrs DEF is a slap in their faces.
OUR OFF WILL CARRY US THROUGH THE REGULAR SEASON, BUT OUR DEF WILL CARRY US THROUGH THE PLAYOFFS. JUST WATCH AND SEE. AFTER OUR BYE WEEK, THE ATLANTA FALCONS WILL BE KICKING “A” AND TAKING NAMES.
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
7:10 pm
I’ll be truthful, I think Houston’s alright, but I wouldn’t consider him spectacular. I personally liked what I saw out of Grimes & Jackson last season in spurts. I’ll go ahead and say I agree with what Jason said, it’s Houston’s job to lose. But he just seems like a CB whose afraid to get burnt.
Maybe it’s just me, but IMO, he rarely jumps on the ball, rather plays himself down into the “bend but don’t break” style. He’s ideal for that kind of system, but if you’re looking for guys to get more aggressive bumping receivers and jumping on the ball – someone whose not afraid to get burnt to make a play – I like both Jackson + Grimes > Houston.
Again we’ll have to see what these guys do through camp and preseason, and we’ll have to see what Owens + Hutchins offer to the group, but I’m up for a good solid competetition for both spots.
Best players start…
Bad News
July 18th, 2009
7:10 pm
Everyone keeps thinking the Tony Gonzales move is a good one for the birds and a bad one for the Chiefs. The Chiefs got the better of this deal!
The Falcons should have used that 2nd round pick on defense or a future tight end. The defense is at least 2-years away from respectibility and Gonzales is in his twilight and will be retiring in 2-years.
That puts the Falcons right back to ground zero, and possibly 2-years behind. It may look good in the stat sheets but not in the win column.
Great GM?
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
7:10 pm
Truthfully, I’m not a huge Chris Houston fan, so I guess my input is a bit biased.
jason
July 18th, 2009
7:31 pm
Wabe , You could take Houston, Grimes, Hutchins, and Jackson and place them in a bag and shake them up and go with the first 2 that fall out. Ithink they are that interchangable. Mainly because they are all still young and inexperienced, or (Hutchins) coming off injury. Houston starts by default. He is the most experienced and seems to have the most talent and upside. Jackson shows good skills and has the physical stats, the question with him is top level speed. I like him more in the Nickel. Grimes is a warrior, but undersized and got abused by taller more physical WRs. Hutchins not sure, a capable CB for HOU, but was injured all yaer. That leaves the 2 rookies. Owens and Middleton. Middleton has blazing speed, but needs to develope at this point. I say his impact will be on ST. Owens is the mystery. Can he grab a starting spot. I say yes by the bye week. Whether it is Jackson’s spot or Houston’s. I say Jackson will go to Nickel and Owens takes over with Houston. It doesn’t matter, I think those 5 will rotate anyway, unless someone steps and takes a spot as a shut down CB.
Vick Supporter
July 18th, 2009
7:48 pm
Those “outsiders” would be right. Face it folks. Also, the comeback is about to happen………
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4338388
danny ray
July 18th, 2009
7:51 pm
Everyone seems to be worried about the teams with two weeks to prepare for the Falcons. Do they prepare to stop the run game or the passing game. To me thats like pick your poison. How do they especially prepare to stop Ryan’s no huddle offense. If Ryan makes the right decisions no one will stop the Falcons no matter how many weeks they have to prepare.
I agree with JesseJames. It’s very possible
Vick Supporter
July 18th, 2009
7:52 pm
The Great Mike Vick Has Returned
D3
July 18th, 2009
8:15 pm
Great Saturday Evening My Fellow ‘Cagers! It’s been a little while and I’ve certainly got some serious catching up to do with all of you rocking the Bird-Cage well and strong. Excellent to see so many good football convo’s as we’re already had some serious traffic after just a day. Good to see all our regulars and some newcomers as well. Pardon my many posts to follow, as I haven’t had my ‘Cage fix in a couple of days.
The Outsider’s BS Prediction – OK, so here we go with this garbage. First of all, this is good. We want people to continue to doubt us until we prove them all wrong. Change and consistent winning don’t come easy and sure doesn’t come without hatemongers spewing their vile to anyone who will listen (or in the case of our Bird-Cage, no one).
We’re talking about historical statistics that these pencil pushers are throwing out there based purely on subjective “trends” as they like to call them. Majority of these people have never even stepped on the field, laced up a cleat, or taken a shot to the chin on an actual football field. This prediction is very similar to Fantasy Football, where they looks for these so called “trends”. Did anyone ever expect a trend of Tom Brady and the Patriots coming pretty much out of nowhere and beating the heavily favored Rams? Did these trends ever predict the “losing team of the 90’s” in the Rams to shock the world, go 13-3, and win the Super Bowl? Did any of these trends ever give Eli Manning and the Giants a 1% chance of beating the Mighty Patriots in 2008?
These statistics are exactly that, numbers, and thats all these people see them as. As Coach Ken pointed out so well, they just say “well we don’t know what to do with the addition of Tony Gonzalez.” What kind of BS is that? They’re assuming that just because we didn’t have injuries last year, that we will this year? Really. Did the Patriots have serious injuries when they repeated back-to-back Super Bowl runs?
I can understand predictions ranging from 8-8 or 9-7, but 7-9 just because of difficulty of schedule? Last year the Steelers had the best winning record with the hardest schedule in the AFC, and the Giants locked up the best record in the NFC with a top 5 hardest schedule. I respect some “experts” opinions in the NFL, namely people who have played the game or been around it a long time. When I did a Google search for this bootleg prediction site, I couldn’t even find their main website for chrissake, assuming they even have one. Gimme a break. 8-8, ok I can live with that, but 7-9? C’mon. These are obviously some fellas that have tried to put their Lehman Brothers/Enron book-cooking skills to the NFL. Its like having Dwight Schrute analyze and predict the NFL. What a joke.
Final “Statistic” to impart:
The Pittsburgh Steelers were one of the absolute worst teams in the history of the NFL. From their first year of 1933 to 1971, they had 27 losing seasons out of 38, equaling a 71% LOSING percentage. After finally getting a good owner, GM, Head Coach, good players, and solid coaches; they went on to win 4 Super Bowls in the 1970’s. According to Dwight Schrute & Co’s BS “trends”, the Pittsburgh Steelers would have NEVER done anything and continued in the “regression analysis” as these tool-belts suggest.
More to come……..
BT
July 18th, 2009
8:18 pm
Good take on the 6 corners Jason, I happen to like Jackson and Houston to start the season, for now with Hutchins as a possible nickle?
Owens definitely appears to have huge upside and depending on his progress, I also could see him possibly taking of a starting slot a little later?
Another outstanding post by Coach Ken earlier and I have a question for the defensive Guru.
What level of importance is the play of the DT rotation in Smitty`s and BVG scheme and how well does the interior of our D-line stack up other NFC teams?
BT
July 18th, 2009
8:29 pm
D3, Football Outsiders definitely has a web site and check this.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2009/foa-09-media-atlanta-chicago-ne-washington
There they an article that links to this very blog, well how do you do?
D3
July 18th, 2009
8:46 pm
Catch-up, Part 1
Alright, so much catching up to do, let’s start from page 2 only…….
Seminole – yep, got the paper done, and got a few more assignments to do before finishing up the grad program at Georgia State. Thanks for asking.
Courtney – Great point on 1-15 prediction. That one was a little off, huh?
Ken Strick – Excellent post as usual my man. As you stated, why is it assumed that the loss of 5 starters is a bad thing? Milloy was past his prime and a liability in pass coverage, Boley was replaced by Coy Wire for godsake, Brooking had a pretty good year but we all remember that one certain play, Grady could stop the run but couldn’t pass rush anyone, and Foxworth will be missed but he was solid at best, certainly not worth what he was paid. These predictions are such a joke.
John Brown – welcome to the Bird-Cage. As you can see there are still the hate-fishers out there, as you can see. We simply don’t take their “hate bait” as we like to call it because then it would validate that its an actual argument and makes sense. We all slip sometimes. Read and respond to the good 99% of the insightful, respectable football analyses we have in here. Good to have you aboard.
CBrass – You’re no rookie anymore. You brought the heat with your recent comments on schemes and defense and such. Your a ‘Cage vet now. Good work.
jason – like you, I can’t wait to see what BVG has in store for us with all this new speed, talent, fire, and striking ability. Next best thing with him leaving UGA was him finding his way to our Beloved ‘Birds. God, Willie Martinez’s seat has GOT to be on fire. It ticks me off too about how Richt is so non-chalant about it too.
Nookah – like your points on winning seasons, but none of those seasons have anything to do with the previous seasons. What does Coach Smith have to do with Coach Reeves, Coach June Jones, or Coach Glanville? Not a d@– thing. No one is successful until they win the big ones.
Catch-Up Part 2 coming soon….
wxwax
July 18th, 2009
8:47 pm
I’m hungry.
I need something to nimble on.
Tom Davis
July 18th, 2009
9:23 pm
Hey, Orlando; Please stop misspelling his name “Micheal” Turner. It’s Michael. The “el” suffix is from the Hebrew which means “of God”.
JJ
July 18th, 2009
10:13 pm
D3; very cool ‘cage ff setup! Well done my man! Know you’ve been busy, but how about Tom Watson! Incredible, I’m not so upset that Tiger missed the cut, this time. Looking forward to our little bird cage season, thanks for the xtra work!