Falcons predicted to finish 7-9 by “Outsiders”
BLOGCATIONVILLE — Headed for that last blog-cation before the season starts. Needed to get a few things for you all to nimble on.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan won an ESPY for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Show airs at 9 p.m. Sunday.
Not everyone is predicting greatness for the Falcons in 2009.
The folks over at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, are predicting more doom and gloom. In their eyes, the streak will reach 44 seasons. There will be no playoffs and someone’s pet is probably going to die.
In the publications’ eight page analysis of the Falcons, Rob Weintraub, a local free lancer and TV production worker, points out that over the last 30 years, 17 teams have improved by seven games — including the Falcons and Miami last season — but only the 1998 Jets under Duane Charles Parcells (some folks call him Bill) have improved the next season.
Those other 14 teams, wins decrease by an average for four. That would put the Falcons at 7-9 in 2009.
“Every other team has come back to the pack for various reasons,” Weintraub said. “It’s the NFL, parity rules.”
Part of the Falcons summary reads, “2009: That bar is set much higher, and the team is weighted down by almost certain regression.”
Here’s how they see the Falcons coming back to the pack:
THE DECLINE IN HEALTH: “The more statistical things that we’ve gone through point to injuries. The Falcons were a very healthy team last year. They were fifth-best in terms of our stats: man-games-missed by their starters.
Here's what an ESPY looks like.
“We found that there is no correlation from year-to-year. Teams that stay healthy for one year don’t necessarily stay healthy the next year. In fact, teams will go backwards in that category.
“If you just have a couple of injuries to a couple of linemen, that could be overcome. Now, if Matt Ryan goes down in the second weak of the season, then the whole thing falls apart. There is a great deal of fortune involved.”
Falcons fans have been there. Check 1999, injuries to Jamal “Jam” Anderson not Jamaal “Sackmaster” Anderson and to Chris Chandler the year after going 14-2 and reaching the Super Bowl. That team went 5-11.
THE SCHEDULE: The Falcons don’t have the AFC West and the NFC Central to kick around. They have the AFC East and NFC East.
“The schedule is significantly more difficult,” Weintraub said.
THE CURSE OF 370: The Outsiders have come up with this “Curse of 370” notion.
Here’s how that works, only one running back – Eric Dickerson – has managed to stare down the Curse.
“Any running back who carries 370 times or more in a single season, there is a significant dropoff or injury the next season,” Weintraub said. “Eric Dickerson is the only guy who’s beat that.”
Eric Dickerson
Micheal Turner had 394 carries for 1,742 yards in 17 games last season.
“You are talking about a very high probability that he’s going to experience a significant (dropoff) this year,” Weintraub said. “Now, it would behoove the Falcons greatly to ease off on his carries. They have Jerious Norwood, whom we love as a back.
“If they can establish a real combination back there, that could definitely offset some of the projected decline in Turner’s numbers.”
The great Dickerson went for 1,808 yards on 390 carries in 1983. He followed that up with 2,105 yards on 379 carries in 1984.
In 1988, Dickerson had 388 carries for 1,659 yards and in 1989 he had 1,311 yards on 314 carries.
Sadly, he was worn out at age 29. By the time he got to the Falcons in 1993, Dickerson could only muster 91 yards on 26 carries.
THE X- FACTOR: The Outsiders don’t know what to do with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Tony and October Gonzalez
“We’ve never really had a projection to account for adding a hall of fame tight end, when your biggest need is tight end,” Weintraub said. “It’s obviously a plus, assuming he stays healthy and stays at the level he’s been at.
“He’s also defied all kinds of logic and projections that we’ve done. Our numbers have said they he was going to fall off for the last three years and he hasn’t. That’s a testimony to what a great all-time great player that he is.”
CAN RYAN WIN SHOOT OUTS?: The Outsiders ranks Ryan’s rookie season as the finest of any quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
“They may have to beat teams 35-31 every week,” Weintraub said. “That’s not a sustainable way to go to the playoffs. Now, it can be done, but I think they’ll need a better plan of attack.”
THE DEFENSE: In their regression analysis, more than 100 variables were looked at for each team. They had to consider the ensuing upheaval with replacing five starters on the defense.
“These guys could step up and play lights out,” Weintraub said. “Stephen Nicholas could turn out to be a Pro Bowl linebacker, we’ll see. But the trend over the last 15 years with teams putting (five or more) starters who have played so little into their starting defense, doesn’t bode well.”
CAVEAT: They still have to play the games.
“We projected the Falcons not to be good last year,” Weintraub said. “But (Matt Ryan) significantly out performed the trends. Surely, that can happen again. We certainly acknowledge that there are times when players step up and become superstars.”
IN SUMMATION: A lot has to happen for the Falcons to end that 43-year streak of never posting back-to-back winning seasons.
“Overall, they have a lot of trends, anchoring them and weighing them back to the pack this year,” Weintraub said. “Right now the numbers say they are going to take a step back.”
You can get the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 off their website: www.footballoutsiders.com and print-on-demand copies from Amazon.com in late July.
D.LED’S UNOFFICIAL/BOOTLEG DEPTH CHART
MISS KERI BABY: Falcons need to line up Decatur's Keri Hilson to do the National Anthem to open the season.
Before we get to the depth chart, here are three campers to keep an eye on:
Rashad Bobino, Linebacker, 5-11, 230: Was a big thumper at middle linebacker for the Texas Longhorns. Made the Big 12 team three times. Check out his pro day workout.
Ryan Stanchek, Guard, 6-3, 305: Was a four-year starter at West Virginia. Was all-Big East in 2006 and 2008. Played left tackle in college. Got snubbed by the coaches in the all-conference voting last season.
Thomas Johnson, Defensive tackle, 6-2, 305: His name keeps popping up. Has been with three teams since coming out of Middle Tennessee in 2005. He hasn’t been able to stick with Dallas, Houston or the New York Jets. He made three starts with Houston in 2006.
THE DEPTH CHART
QUARTERBACK: Starter — Matt Ryan. Backups – 2. Chris Redman, 3. D.J. Shockley, and 4. John Parker Wilson.
RUNNING BACK: Starters — Michael Turner and Ovie Mughelli. Backups – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Jason Snelling, 3. Thomas Brown and 4. Verron Haynes.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Starters – Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Backups – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran, 3. Eric Weems, 4. Troy Bergeron, 5. Chandler Williams, 6. Aaron Kelly, 7. Darren Mougey and 8. Bradon Godfrey.
TIGHT ENDS: Starter – Tony Gonzalez. Backups – 1. Ben Hartsock, 2. Justin Peelle, 3. Keith Zinger and 4. Jason Rader.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters – LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Todd McClure, RG Harvey Dahl, RT Tyson Clabo. Backups – Center – 1. Brett Romberg, 2. Ben Wilkerson.
Guards – 1. Jeremy Newberry, 2. Romberg, 3. Wilkerson, 4. Ryan Stanchek, 5. Jose Valez.
Tackles – 1. Will Svitek, 2. Quinn Ojinnaka, 3. Garrent Reynolds, 4. Michael Butterworth.
Falcons All-Pro defensive end John Abraham.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters – RDE John Abraham, RT Peria Jerry, LT Jonathan Babineaux, LDE Chauncey Davis.
Backups DE – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Kroy Biermann, 3. Lawrence Sidbury, 4. Willie Evans and 5. Maurice Lucas. DT – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Trey Lewis, 3. Jason Jefferson, 4. Thomas Johnson, 5. Vance Walker, 6. Tywain Myles
LINEBACKERS: Starters – WLB Michael Peterson, MLB Curtis Lofton, SLB Stephen Nicholas. Backups: 1. Coy Wire, 2. Edmond Miles, 3. Tony Gilbert, 4. Spencer Adkins, 5. Robert James, and 6. Rashad Bobino.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: LCB – Chris Owens, FS – Erik Coleman, SS – William Moore, RCB – Chris Houston. Backups – CB – 1. Chevis Jackson, 2. Brent Grimes, 3. William Middleton, 4. Von Hutchins, 5. David Irons (injured), 6. Glenn Sharpe, 7. Tony Tiller. S – 1. Thomas DeCoud, 2. Jamaal Fudge, 3. Antoine Harris, 4. Eric Brock.
SPECIAL TEAMS – KR – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Thomas Brown. PR – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran. P – Michael Koenen. PK Jason Elam. LS – Mike Schneck.
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1,184 comments Add your comment
Nookah
July 18th, 2009
11:40 am
Just got caught up with my reading and of course the content maintained it’s usually high standard on football discussions and littered with the usual naysayers and baseless hatemongers. However, I will follow Jason’s lead and …”Don’t take the bait”. Well said my brother.
As far as the predictions are concerned, they are what they are, predictions. They are people’s opinions that they are all entitled to.
Greg from Marietta said it best…” Opinions are like a certain necessary body part – everyone’s got one. There are too many variables that can determine a teams success or failure during a season. So let’s just wait until the games are played and let the wins fall where they may and forget about these “Predictions”. Heck, if these guys were really any good about predicting things why hasn’t any of then won the lottery???” Couldn’t have said it better myself. Nuff respect my brother.
Falcondore, excellent post yesterday (11:16 am), although your “disclaimer” in brackets that we won’t go 12-4 may draw some ire from Ken Strick (lol). My peronal “prediction”, for what it’s worth is 10-6 or with a little luck 11-5.
If the logic the Outsiders are using applies, then Carolina will be in the same boat as we are. They have not had back-to-back winning seasons since 1995 as have the Saints. The Bucs are the only team in our division that have had back-to back winning seasons since ‘02, ‘07 & ‘08. Certainly John Fox had not had it since he was signed in 2002 and that was also the year we went from the NFC West to the South. Since ‘95 the Panthers are 63-49, the Saints are 53-59, Bucs 57-55 and we are 55-56-1 . So if we want to remain consistent and follow their logic perhaps the Saints or the Bucs will win the division as Carolina had a winning season last year. Since the Bucs are in re-building mode and it is highly improbable then perhaps Seminole’s prediction will ring true and the Saints will be victorious.
All these theories I disagree with and in the indomitable words of Chris Berman from the 4 letter network….”That’s why we play the games”….(echoed by Dogbyte yesterday). As someone mentioned before, aren’t these the same so-called experts that said we would go 1-15 last year.
WR is correct when he said we have to actually have back-to-back winning seasons before they will give us any respect so I get that. He is correct. All things taken into consideration I am not drinking any of the “losing season kool-aid”, simply because we have enough depth and a significantly upgraded offense to be in too many slumps this year. Of course I know there are many variables not the least of which is our defense. However, I think our defense will surprise many due to the plethora of speed (Ken Strick’s point). A lot of people are also disregarding our special teams. That is where it begins and we have a pretty good one.
BT, nuff bigups for the link with Matty Ice.
Falcon Nation, get your VIP seats now, because by week 8 the “wagon” will get very crowded and seats will be at a premium.
Go Falcons!!!!
I dediate this to all the naysayers:
Stiff-necked fools, you think you are cool, To deny me for simplicity.
Yes, you have gone for so long, With your love for vanity now.
Yes, you have got the wrong interpretation, Mixed up with vain imagination.
So take Jah Sun, and Jah Moon, And Jah Rain, and Jah Stars,
And forever, yes, erase your fantasy, yea-eah………………………….Robert Nesta!!
Nuff respect everytime!!!
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
12:06 pm
A late start to the morning. What’s up my peeps!! Good morning my ACC brother (aka the Indians). JJ, talk smack anyways…it’s all in the name of fun. I thought of using my HS mascot as well but the DAWG fans in here would have had me for lunch. Tradition is deep down there in the Rose City as we are THIRD winningest program in the state. William Andrews and Guy McIntyre are among our most notable alum.
Lady Sarah, you really burnt the late night oil! Hope today is a much better day than yesterday. Head to Stonecrest or Mall of Georgia and share some relief with a sale or too dear. Nookah, Jerry, CBrass: Are feeling it this morn? D3, did you get the paper finished my brother?
All others, nothing but love for you today.
Well, I off to Books-A-Million or Barnes and Nobles to pick up my guides and begin my draft preparations. With the Mighty Indians a threat to Sarah, D3, and the rest of us, I had better make sure I bring it on draft day.
Darn..guess I can’t afford to take Jason Elam with the first selection huh? LOL. Laters all. Much love…ONE NATION!! FALCON NATION!!
Courtney
July 18th, 2009
12:14 pm
Didn’t the experts predict we would go 1-15 last year; So why should we listen to them this year????
jason
July 18th, 2009
12:38 pm
WR, I know all about the trash talking. Yhat is what makes coming here on the blog so great. I crack up reading some you guy’s barbs. I like that back and forth with Sarah B. That was a good post to keep the blog from getting serious. We still have some time before we really kick things off.
Gotta question for our FF GMs (Sarah B/D3). I went to ESPN and got the user name. Went to the FFLs and I didn’t see our league. What do I need to do to actually join the league? I am pumped and ready to get this FF thing started. I don’t have a problem using High School names (Seminole) The DAWGS of T’Ville is a proud tradition. I could go with my ‘Makers and then you and I could wage a war with Rivals. Could be worse… Could have went to Central… We know what their mascot is. WR would even be able to tell us that one.
I was looking at Schultz’s blog and he was talking about Greene explaing to Stafford about the NFL life and what to expect. While browsing through the posts a Jacket fan was talking about Greene explaining what it was like to ride the bench. Another said something about DJ knowing how to hand out Gatorade. I thought it was funny. Good ribbing and what not. A dawg fan in return asked if Tech ever had a QB drafted and start in the NFL. I don’t know the answer to that question. I replied Reggie Ball (joking). But then I didn’t know if Ball was actually a Yellow Jacket… Or was a DAWG; at least on 4 occasions. I will leave that for you WR. Just good nature ribbing. But seriously, Has Tech ever had a QB drafted and start in the NFL at the QB position?
I will be off and on all day. WR, I know I dished it out to you, so I will man up and take what I deserve.
Ken Strickland
July 18th, 2009
12:59 pm
It’s obvious the people at FOOTBALL OUTSIDES ALMANAC 2009 are reaching for excuses to justify their negative assessment of the Falcons chances for next season. They are relying almost exclusively on subjective criteria, which will have little if any actual impact on our season. They’re obviously anti Atlanta Falcons. How else do you explain their inability to make anything out of the acquisition of TGonzalez, the NFL’s greatest pass receiving TE. Since they couldn’t/wouldn’t acknowledge the positive impact he’ll have on the overall OFF, or find an excuse to lessen his potential impact, they pretended not to have a clue. An argument could be made that I’m just as guilty, but for the opposite reason, since I’m definitely a diehard Falcon fan. Well, let me present my criteria for believing the Falcons will go 12-4 and win the NFC South. Let’s start with the DEFENSE:
DT
(1) The freak injury to DT TLewis and our lack of depth at the position forced us to sign and start GJackson. We drafted PJerry, the #1 4-3 DT in this yrs draft, and VWalker, another All American that is strong in every area. We also have former starter TLewis returning after 18mos of intensive rehab. With the tremendous increase in the speed, quickness, mobility and pass rushing ability of these 3, how can we not register an improvement over GJackson?
DE
(2) With the outstanding 2nd half improvement of DE KBiermann, the addition of LSidbury and the resigning of CDavis, JAnderson will have to show noticable overall improve or he’ll either become a rotational DE, or be switched to DT. Either way, there’ll be an improvement at LDE.
OLB
(3) KBrooking had a very good season last yr, but his style of play wasn’t a good fit for this DEF. His replacement, MPeterson, is what is called a striker, which means he’s more physical and does a better job attacking the line of scrimmage against the run, while not sacrificing speed and quickness. SNicholas proved to be a striker as well with his outstanding special teams play. He’s a much better fit for Smitty’s DEF than MBoley was, and he’s just as quick and fast. If you add RJames, another striker, despite his size, and we definitely have improvement over last yrs OLB’s.
CB
(4) We’ve added draftees COwens and WMiddleton to CJackson and starter CHouston. We’ll also have VHutchins, DIrons and former starter BGrimes returning from IR after suffering season ending injures. This will make us deeper and much more talented overall than we were last yr, and that’s an overall improvement.
FS/SS
(5) SS LMilloy was the equivelent of having a 4th LB, which our poor rushing DEF needed. However, his was a liability in pass coverage and forced FS EColeman, who had an outstanding season, to cover too much territory. With last yrs backups TDecoud and JFudge returning, along with the addition of draftee WMoore and the return from IR of AHarris, we’ll have the overall speed, quickness and ability to cover the entire field and provide our CB’s with much better support. HOW CAN THAT NOT BE AND IMPROVEMENT?
Although our DEF gave up tons of passing and rushing yds lst yr, they were outstanding when it came to points allowed in contract to yds allowed. That stat was the main reason we were so successful last yr. Gms aren’t decided by the number of yds gained or allowed, but by the number of POINTS scored or allowed.
If you’ve eliminated the weaknesses of one of last yrs best overall OFF’s, by adding depth and talent, how does that lead to you becoming a worse team? If you address your DEF weaknesses by adding speed, quickness, mobility, athleticism, depth and superior talent overall, to a DEF that did an outstanding job of managing the scoreboard, how does that translate into creating a worse team?
HOW CAN INJURIES TO FORMER SUPERBOWL QB CCHANDLER OR RB JANDERSON, OR PROJECTING THE POSIBILITY OF QB MRYAN GETTING INJURIED, OR THE FALCONS PAST HISTORY OF WINNING AND LOSING OVERRIDE THE FACTS I’VE PRESENTED? WHY AREN’T THESE INJURY PROJECTIONS USED TO DETERMINE THE PREDICTIONS OF OTHER TEAMS THAT ARE QB OR RB DEPENDENT LIKE THE PATRIOTS, COLTS, SAINTS, STEELERS, GIANTS, EAGLES, VIKINGS ETC?
I STAND BY MY PREDICTIONS.
John Brown
July 18th, 2009
1:25 pm
Hey Bad News -Who is Cutler going to throw to to “destroy” us? Devin Hester? LOL! Cutler is good, but there is NO receiving in Chicago, kind of a prerequisite for a quarterback to be successful. As far a Miami is concerned, didn’t they improve by 7 games or more as well… not to mention there is a reason Pennington was run out of New York. One fluke year doesn’t change his overall choking nature. Historically, Panther games are always close despite the records of the teams. And, NE? Let’s just say they’re slightly due for missing the playoffs. But Chicago? LOL LOL LOL. That team is terrible. Not to mention their horrible D…… Monstrous in the Midway. Expect Lovie Smith to be fired. Running Rivera out of town was the worst move ever. Bad News, maybe you should go to Bears mini camp as a receiver. You’d probably make the squad. Good luck! Go Falcons!
WR
July 18th, 2009
1:27 pm
Jason, before we get to our endeavors, if you go into your email that D3 sent out there should be a link that takes you directly to our league. As long as you are signed if for ESPN fantasy sports. If your not signed up, just sign up then go back to the email and take the link, you team is already listed all you have to do is click on it and make any modifications you choose. Now to the stab in the back I received:
Actually I can’t say a word for, as a Tech fan I often wondered if Ball was playing for the Dogs and every other opponent we faced, as a matter of fact I wondered if Gailey was a coordinator with the Dogs because he refused to replace Ball. As for the QB situation, the last tech QB to be drafted and start in the NFL will be the first that I have seen. Wow, what a bad way to handle your trash talking, but when your right your right.
CBrass
July 18th, 2009
1:34 pm
Ken Strickland,
Very good and insightful post. All of the predictions that I’ve read only list the departure of the 5 defensive starters which will result in people running and passing all over us. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t that what happen last season and we still finished with an 11-5 record?!?!
Football is much like basketball in that you have to have the right players in order for a coaches defensive/offensive system to work. For example if a basketball coach likes to get up and down the floor with back court taps and presses why would he/she draft/keep a player that is slow and can’t cover much ground? Sounds to me that’s the kind of defensive system (fast smash mouth defense) that Smitty/BVG wants to run and the people that were let go didn’t fit into that mold. From what I’ve read we now have these type of players in place. Yes they are young but that doesn’t necessary mean they will not be good!!
Again great post!!!
jason
July 18th, 2009
1:37 pm
WR, It’s all in good fun. NOt like UGA had a QB be a starter since when ? Wait a minute…. Fran Tarkton. That was like 50-60 years ago. I always thought Shawn Jones was drafted. I know he was never a starter. Jones was from T’ville, cousin of UGA S Sean Jones.
You might get me in this FF endeavor, but i can go tit for tat with you on Teach and UGA all day long. Seriously I rooted for Tech when they shared that MNC. Shawn Jones was QB. Cairo got their A$$ handed to them regularly when he was at THS.
jason
July 18th, 2009
1:48 pm
CBrass, Good post to piggy back Coach Ken’s excellent (As always) posting. BVG wants a fast striking D. He wants to force the action, not react. We are getting the pieces in place for that. What we will need this year is game experience.Someone mentioned yesterday about the first 6 games of the year. We start with a brutal stretch just to be able to get to the bye. If we manage 5-1 or 4-2, the first six, we will go 10-6 or Ken’s 12-4. Our young and fast D will have that much needed experience. The great thing about having fast, atheletic players on D is that they can overcome inexperience and youthful mistakes. Another thing about BVG’s D is that it will be heavily rotated. With the aggressive approach and playing fast we will need the depth to rotate in. The DL is key. We will have 4 Dl and by the bye week we will have 5 adding Sid. Our DTs will go at least 5 deep with Babs, Jerry, Walker, Lewis, and possibly Jefferson. Add to that the CBs. I say we carry 6 with 4 Safeties. The draft was more than replacing 5 defensive starters; it was about adding quality depth so BVG and Smitty could comfortably run their D. ATL did not run the full Smitty/BVG D last year. They could not blitz as well and as often as they wanted to. They had to play alot of zone to cover up our defensive defeciancies. TD seemed to have solved alot of that in this draft.
Nookah
July 18th, 2009
1:49 pm
Ken Strick’, I cosign that post. Those are my sentiments exactly.
A lot of these so-called experts do the same thing from year to year. Instead of really analyzing all the teams, they get away with the “road less travelled”. They fail to do the work and truly analyze each and every team from year to year. All they do is stick to the usual suspects, New England, Giants, Philly etc. and pick their winners from there. I guess we have given them a reason to be so disrespectful to us as a franchise, because to be honest and as WR said earlier, until we actually have back-to-back winning seasons, we really have no argument.
However, when I examine this team from top to bottom, I can’t help but feel very optimistic about the upcoming season. As I have outlined in previous posts, our main area of weakness is our defense. However, with the factual analysis that KS has just done (and others have presented the facts here before), I am more than convinced that we will be a very good team this year. We tend to forget that last year was the first year we were in this system and with almost all our starters on offense returning and with the addition of the undeniably dangerous and very effective HOF TE, #88, we will be many teams worst nightmare. Of course I know you have to be good on both sides of the ball but we discount the effect a “clock-controlling” offense can have on it’s defense.
I can’t wait. I say at worst 10-6!!!
Go Falcons!!!
TIME WILL TELL – Robert Nesta Marley
JAH would never give the power to a baldhead, Run come crucify the dread
Time alone, oh! time will tell, Think you’re in heaven, but you living in hell
Think you’re in heaven, but you living in hell Time alone, oh! time will tell
You think you’re in heaven, but you living in hell
Back them up, oh not the brothers, But the ones, who set them up
Time alone, oh! time will tell Think you’re in heaven, but you living in hell
Think you’re in heaven, but you living in hell Time alone, oh! time will tell
You think you’re in heaven, but you living in hell
Oh children weep no more Oh my sycamore tree, saw the freedom tree
Oh children weep no more Weep no more, children weep no more
WR
July 18th, 2009
1:54 pm
Jason, I actually hope Shockley gets a chance, and I want to see Stafford succeed, when its all said and done they both played in the state of Georgia, plus Shockley is from my hometown area. Now in the present day I think both Tech and Georgia have seen the good and the bad, remember Jim Donnan, Ray Goff, I compare them to Bill Lewis and Chan Gailey with Gailey being slightly better than the other three.
Seminole, had to ease one in I see, can’t even let a little indian slip by, well what can I say, its got to be better than Butt Nuggets, BT keeps relatively quiet but I got a feeling Butt Nuggets is going to garner much atttention. JJ, hopes to rekindle some magic from the Marist days, rekindle being the magic word, those days have come and gone my friend, its you, your cane, and me now my friend,LOL.
BT
July 18th, 2009
1:55 pm
Great in depth analysis posted by Ken Strickland.
I agree, with every point he made, so much as the improvements.
However, before I can declare a 12/4 season, which is basicly saying, they are likely the best team in the NFC.
The diffrence between believing and knowing (with me)is if, we had a little more veteran quality depth at the DT, OT and CB positions.
jason
July 18th, 2009
2:00 pm
WR, how do I make the modifacations? I am Team 4. I clicked on it, and can’t find a menu or anything prompting me to make changes.
Sarah B
July 18th, 2009
2:05 pm
Sorry for my ranting last night. I’m going to go sign up for the
FFL now.
WR
July 18th, 2009
2:08 pm
Nookah and Ken Strick, good points, and to add one more to that lets really look at this weak defense. This supposedly weak defense is younger, faster, and more athletic than the one that finished 24th out of 32 teams last year. With a rookie Quarterback, and a supposedly make shift offensive line the Falcons protected that 24th ranked defense last year. Now with a Second year Quarterback an underrated offensive line, the addition of a future HOF TE and a year in Mike Murlarkey’s system do we suppose that the offense can’t do the same thing. The one thing about last years defense is that they had to learn a new system, and once they did, they maxed out their potential, this defense has pieces in place that know the defensive system, and they also have players that will be learning a new system, but once those players learn the system they won’t be maximizing their peek potential for a few more years, which means that over the next few years they will continue to get better, both individually and as a cohesive group, kind of makes them seem scary if you ask me.
WR
July 18th, 2009
2:16 pm
Jason, I believe I went to members, clicked on my team again and at the bottom of the screen it asked if I wanted to verify this was my team. I’m not completely sure, I initially had the same trouble you had, then I signed out, went back in and there was no problem, I know I played around with it for a second, some its hard to give you a concrete response.
BT
July 18th, 2009
2:20 pm
Jason my man, there is nothing to change except team colors and name until you have a lineup.
The smartest thing to do is go about the business of pre-ranking the players, ESPN has an auto pre-ranking draft kit or you can import one from another team, if you have one?
Nookah
July 18th, 2009
2:24 pm
Another intangible that could be a factor is how the team reacts to being the “hunted”. We are now catching some people’s attention regardless of what the naysayers say.
I can assure you that HC’s in the NFL will not be too concerned about predictions of where the Falcons will finish. They are concerned that:
a) Matty Ryan has shown enough to be taken very seriously
b) The Falcons possess a dangerous running game and have retained most of their OL and in fact have bolstered it and added depth. That along with the fact that they have one of the better blocking fullbacks in the game.
c) The Falcons have on paper (because this is all it is at the moment) made the adjustment to counteract 9 in the box by trading for #88; so do so at your own peril.
d) The Falcons have added more speed on defense and Coaches will have to prepare for that.
e) The process continues for the special teams (allowed a NFL record 49 punt return yards last year).
I’m sure all teams will want to test the rookies in our defense but very soon in the season they will find out that on Sundays……..”THOU SHALT NOT RUN”
Go Falcons!!!!
Nuff respect everytime!!!
WR
July 18th, 2009
2:26 pm
BT I think Jason’s trying to figure out how to do the modifications like, team name, colors, all the basic stuff.
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
2:40 pm
http://www.nfl.com/videos/atlanta-falcons/09000d5d81134f03/32-in-32-Atlanta-Falcons
Most of yall probably already seen this. Just posted it for those who might not have.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
2:42 pm
What’s up this afternoon all!! K-Strick, Nookah, and my best bud WR are all on target.
jason
July 18th, 2009
2:43 pm
WR, I am not the best user of the computer. Not the most patient either.
Alot of us are echoing the same things. The offense will again this year cover up the D intil they are ready. Long sustained drives 10+ plays;60-80 yds. More TDs than FGs. The ST namely Koennen makes life easier with excellent directional and hang time punting placing D in a good field position making opposing O take on long drives. That is a hrd thing to do in the NFL consistently. Long deliberate drives that score TDs, not FGs. ATL’s D will be omproved this year; not neccessarily the finished product, but improved. 2010, The D will be top 5 in the NFL.
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
2:47 pm
Wyche seems to think the Falcons may implement a bit of 3-4 into the defensive gameplan?
Any thoughts?
kidfunkyfly
July 18th, 2009
2:52 pm
the experts at FO had the falcons getting 4-5 wins last year they were wrong on that one but otherwise they are the best website dedicated to football statistis that I have found and the only experts that I take note of when they make predictions. The falcons will have an uphill battle and I would expect this year will be injury plagued showing the lack of depth along both lines.7-9 seems very reasonable to me fans need to realize that rebuilding is not done in one offseason not even in two it takes a few years to build the depth chart the way the coaches and Gm want. The falcons are making strides to get there but I dont think they are there yet.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
2:56 pm
Wabe..I see more of a Tampa 2 look than a 3-4. The reason: speed, speed, and more speed.
BT
July 18th, 2009
3:07 pm
A bit of the 3/4 is an interesting thought.
What would you do?
Take out Babs, leaving Abe, Perry and JA98 with Nicholas coming off of the edge from a 2 point, leaving Wire to cover SLB.
I could see some potiental for mixing some 3/4 in.
If, for no other reason to wreck some havoc and be a little harder to prepare for.
jason
July 18th, 2009
3:11 pm
Wabe, the 3-4 will be implimented; just not used alot. We have the personell to run the 3-4 with hybrid DE/OLBS (Sid and Bierrman) We also have big DEs like J anderson and Davis. We will still be a base 4-3, but will convert to some 3-4 in passing situations to bring extra pressure.
SeminoleWarrior, I am curious to see how much if any Tampa 2 we run. I know we have speed to burn, I am just looking at our DBs. Houston and Jackson seem to be more man coverage than zone. just my opinion. I think the more looks you can give an opposing QB, the better. Makes masking what we want to do on defense easier.
jason
July 18th, 2009
3:13 pm
BT, You hit the nail on the head with that post. Nicolas brings an interesting talent to the 3-4 as a pass rusher. I say JAnderson, Jerry or Lewis, and Abe up front. Then Nicolas and Bierrman at the 2 OLB spots with Lofton and Peterson in the middle.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
3:20 pm
K Strick, I read and re-read your analysis several times. What a hell of a job breaking it down.
Your defensive analysis is on target my brother. As I mentioned to Lady Sarah a couple of days back, this construction of this defense reminds me of what Tony Dungy did in Tampa. A close examination of the players that formed the core of his defense reveals incredible similiarities in terms of size, speed, and skill set. We all know that this defense was used by Chucky to win the 2002 Super Bowl. I’m not saying Jerry will become Warren Sapp, but there are similiarities in size and game. I’m not saying William Moore will become John Lynch, but there are some similiarities. I’m not saying Curtis Lofton will become Derrick Brooks, but you can follow me here. There are a heck of a lot of similiarities.
And if BVG is the aggressor that my posse brothers tell me he is, I can see this going in that direction.
BT
July 18th, 2009
3:22 pm
Hey kid, why do you expect the Falcons to have an injury plagued season?
If you would take the time to read all the post in this blog, you would learn that the ‘’so-called” experts at FO have already been refuted and because with their own disclaimer, they admitted there is nothing to base any statistical analysis for a team in need of a receiving TE suddenly having one.
So, even by their own admission, their own analysis is faulty and therefor dismissed.
Daryl
July 18th, 2009
3:25 pm
The Falcons are losers. They have alway been losers. Think about it! When have they ever been winners. Trust me, they will find a way to screw this season up. It’s in their psychic. The Falcons can’t handle success. I predict they will go 3-13. Once that team gets down early in the season, they won’t be able to get back up. Their altitudes are that developed. They aren’t champions or winners. And they will never be. Blank and Goodell are idiots. What goes around, comes around.
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
3:30 pm
I hear you guys.
Seminole, I would think that implementing a 3-4 would only make this team faster. I’ve always wanted the Falcons to run some 3-4 sets, but it’s never been implemented. I think some creativity this season wouldn’t hurt. UTILIZE THE SPEED.
Also wouldn’t mind seeing a more blitz oriented defense. I know with a young secondary, this is a bit risky. But I’m more of a HIGH RISK = HIGH REWARD kinda person. More often than not, we’ll just rush 4 and drop back. But I wouldn’t mind them sending 5-6, especially when playing young QB’s or even when opposing teams have young RB’s blocking in the backfield (guys who aren’t proven to be players who can pick up the extra blitzer). I just think sending some heat would help keep offenses guessing a bit more, instead of just allowing the QB to sit back and pick us apart.
Like I said, UTILIZE THE SPEED > > > MORE SPEED = QUICKER TO THE QB. Regardless of how it’s done, I wanna see opposing QB’s in the dirt, some bad/pressured throws, which lead to some PICK 6’s from some of these ball-hawks we got out on the field. We’ve got speed, bump and run and send 5-6 at times…
CREATIVITY!!!!
MIX IT UP!!!!
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
3:35 pm
I understand as of now, we’re a bit more on the “bend but don’t break” side of the fence, but maybe get a bit closer to the fence?
Not recommending we do what Jim Johnson does down there in Philly, just a bit more creative with our blitz packages..
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
3:37 pm
A lot of folks are looking at the vast improvement that Gonzo will bring to our offense. I’m looking for one person in particular to be a major surprise with possible 6 TDs for the season. With teams keying on Gonzo and White, all expect the running game to be the main thrust. But look for Michael Jenkins to have a 6-8 TD season as a secondary target. He will be particularly valuable in the no-huddle sets when defenses are confused as to where to place personnel. His height and large frame make him an excellent option to TG in the red zone.
Nookah
July 18th, 2009
3:39 pm
Daryl, could you tell us the address of the Falcons’ psychic? Based on your comment …..” It’s in their psychic”,……………….I just wondered.
Go Falcons!!!
Nuff respect everytime!!!
BT
July 18th, 2009
3:44 pm
Jason, what about Adkins or El Sid in spot duty as outside speed rushing LB`s in the 3/4?
Those two possess mountians of potiental if utilized correctly.
Good idea if Lewis (for size), Anderson and Abe occupy the inside, with El Sid and Bierman being veristile?
Actually, if you think about it, with all the talent on hand.
The comonations seem almost endless.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
3:45 pm
Wabe, correct me if I am wrong. The 3-4 requires a big stuffing tackle in the middle right? The only tackle we have like that would be Trey Lewis. All the others are smaller, faster tackles; tackles more of a penetrating sytle like Sapp than the “roadblocks” the 3-4 would need., i.e. Vince Wilfork or Casey Hampton.
Given that premise, that is why I keep thinking T2. Additionally, I think Jason asked if our DBs are better in man or zone. With the T2, the zones are clearly defined as are the transition points. The LBs are also key in coverage. Nicholas and James have a pass coverage pedigree. Lofton would need some work but he has enough of a skill set having played some SLB at OU. He has speed. Coleman, DeCoud, and Moore make for a much faster, physical, and YOUNGER safety corps.
jason
July 18th, 2009
3:47 pm
Wabe, Last year we were more zone and bend. That will be changing this year. BVG has to have his players to run his D. He started getting those players in this year’s draft. You will see more blitzing and more man this year. BVG is an aggressive DC. He loves to attack and not react. He is going to increase QB sacks and TOs. Look at the CBs drafted. Speed, speed and even more speed. He also drafted CBs more for man coverage. That should say what the D game plan will be.
jason
July 18th, 2009
3:51 pm
BT, They are endless. On Adkins, he is a developmental player. Might be a few years before you see him produce. Kind of like the situation with Nicolas and his developemment.
jason
July 18th, 2009
3:55 pm
SeminoleWarrior, I see both defenses utilized. The Tampa 2 will sepend on Lofton being able to play that deep MLB zone. I agree with you.
As for the 3-4, you do need a big DT ala, Lewis, but if you implement this as a pass D (2nd down 5-7 yards), you could go with Jerry or Babs. DT size does not matter much because it is all about getting to the QB. Babs has a good first step and would still draw double teams.
BT
July 18th, 2009
3:55 pm
Wabe, there is no doubt in my mind, if it be by the use of the 3/4 or not?
We will see a more aggressive style of play from our D.
They did not bring in a bunch of fast aggressive ball hawks to sit back and play totally read and react.
Smitty has already come out and indicated that a big point of emphasis is to created more turnovers.
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
4:04 pm
I hear you guys.
Seminole I hear what you’re saying. I hope you don’t think I’m discrediting your theory of the Tampa 2. You’re right to say that we still lack a few key spots if we wanted to change from a 4-3 base to a 3-4. But I wouldn’t mind seeing it implemented and thrown into the mix. Throw Lewis, JA55, and Anderson out there to anchor the inside. We have definately have the right blend of players to fill out the 4 LB spots. I think this kind of scheme would benefit the likes of Sidbury, who clearly have the potential to be playmakers, but are still a bit raw making the trasition from college to pro. In general, we have speed and depth, let’s utilize the best we can with what we’ve got. We don’t have to be shackled down to a certain philosophy.
I also hear you jason. I understand we haven’t exactly had the speed needed to be a blitz oriented defense in years past. This is all the more reason I’m more SKYED than ever to see what these young guys can do.
We have alot of depth at D-Line, which is why I don’t see the Falcons moving into 3-4 territory anytime soon. But here and there, it would be something worth trying just to mix things up.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
4:19 pm
Wabe, no discredit seen my brother. It’s a valid, viable discussion. Speed gives you amny options on defense. That is what made my Seminoles the beasts that they were in the ’90s. That and a solid running attack with target passing schemes.
Jason is really doing a great job of bringing me up to date on the philosophy of BVG. With each statement he makes, I analyze and plug players. I can see it coming into a better degree of focus than I could say, a week or two ago.
The depth is critical in order to sustain your intent. Remember, first and foremost, this is a process. TD is of the New England school; be ready to insert and continue the process as it is scripted.
jason
July 18th, 2009
4:29 pm
Wabe, I think the more that you can give a NFL QB to think about, the better your chances are for your D to have success.
Wabe
July 18th, 2009
4:31 pm
B I N G O!
I hear that Jason.
jason
July 18th, 2009
4:32 pm
The depth is critical in order to sustain your intent. Remember, first and foremost, this is a process. TD is of the New England school; be ready to insert and continue the process as it is scripted.
Seminole Warrior, and what kind of Defense does N.E. run? Multiple fronts and looks. They run a 3-4 and 4-3 package. Taking full advantage of the versatility of their defensive players. ATL will do the same in Smitty and BVG’s system.
SeminoleWarrior
July 18th, 2009
4:33 pm
I’m soaking it up like a sponge Jason.
jason
July 18th, 2009
4:33 pm
Our biggest thing is getting the game expeeience for Sid, Nicolas, Owens, Jerry, Moore, Middleton and continued growth for the other youngsters.
jason
July 18th, 2009
4:37 pm
SeminoleWarrior, The great thin about the Tampa 2 is that you can run it with any package, 3-4 or 4-3. Even some Nickel or Dime. It is all about deep soning the middle of the field with your 2 safeties and MLB. MLB takes a deep zone and allows your safeties to split the field in half to cove the deep side of the CBs. The key is Lofton’s ability to play in space.