Falcons predicted to finish 7-9 by “Outsiders”
BLOGCATIONVILLE — Headed for that last blog-cation before the season starts. Needed to get a few things for you all to nimble on.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan won an ESPY for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Show airs at 9 p.m. Sunday.
Not everyone is predicting greatness for the Falcons in 2009.
The folks over at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, are predicting more doom and gloom. In their eyes, the streak will reach 44 seasons. There will be no playoffs and someone’s pet is probably going to die.
In the publications’ eight page analysis of the Falcons, Rob Weintraub, a local free lancer and TV production worker, points out that over the last 30 years, 17 teams have improved by seven games — including the Falcons and Miami last season — but only the 1998 Jets under Duane Charles Parcells (some folks call him Bill) have improved the next season.
Those other 14 teams, wins decrease by an average for four. That would put the Falcons at 7-9 in 2009.
“Every other team has come back to the pack for various reasons,” Weintraub said. “It’s the NFL, parity rules.”
Part of the Falcons summary reads, “2009: That bar is set much higher, and the team is weighted down by almost certain regression.”
Here’s how they see the Falcons coming back to the pack:
THE DECLINE IN HEALTH: “The more statistical things that we’ve gone through point to injuries. The Falcons were a very healthy team last year. They were fifth-best in terms of our stats: man-games-missed by their starters.
Here's what an ESPY looks like.
“We found that there is no correlation from year-to-year. Teams that stay healthy for one year don’t necessarily stay healthy the next year. In fact, teams will go backwards in that category.
“If you just have a couple of injuries to a couple of linemen, that could be overcome. Now, if Matt Ryan goes down in the second weak of the season, then the whole thing falls apart. There is a great deal of fortune involved.”
Falcons fans have been there. Check 1999, injuries to Jamal “Jam” Anderson not Jamaal “Sackmaster” Anderson and to Chris Chandler the year after going 14-2 and reaching the Super Bowl. That team went 5-11.
THE SCHEDULE: The Falcons don’t have the AFC West and the NFC Central to kick around. They have the AFC East and NFC East.
“The schedule is significantly more difficult,” Weintraub said.
THE CURSE OF 370: The Outsiders have come up with this “Curse of 370” notion.
Here’s how that works, only one running back – Eric Dickerson – has managed to stare down the Curse.
“Any running back who carries 370 times or more in a single season, there is a significant dropoff or injury the next season,” Weintraub said. “Eric Dickerson is the only guy who’s beat that.”
Eric Dickerson
Micheal Turner had 394 carries for 1,742 yards in 17 games last season.
“You are talking about a very high probability that he’s going to experience a significant (dropoff) this year,” Weintraub said. “Now, it would behoove the Falcons greatly to ease off on his carries. They have Jerious Norwood, whom we love as a back.
“If they can establish a real combination back there, that could definitely offset some of the projected decline in Turner’s numbers.”
The great Dickerson went for 1,808 yards on 390 carries in 1983. He followed that up with 2,105 yards on 379 carries in 1984.
In 1988, Dickerson had 388 carries for 1,659 yards and in 1989 he had 1,311 yards on 314 carries.
Sadly, he was worn out at age 29. By the time he got to the Falcons in 1993, Dickerson could only muster 91 yards on 26 carries.
THE X- FACTOR: The Outsiders don’t know what to do with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Tony and October Gonzalez
“We’ve never really had a projection to account for adding a hall of fame tight end, when your biggest need is tight end,” Weintraub said. “It’s obviously a plus, assuming he stays healthy and stays at the level he’s been at.
“He’s also defied all kinds of logic and projections that we’ve done. Our numbers have said they he was going to fall off for the last three years and he hasn’t. That’s a testimony to what a great all-time great player that he is.”
CAN RYAN WIN SHOOT OUTS?: The Outsiders ranks Ryan’s rookie season as the finest of any quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
“They may have to beat teams 35-31 every week,” Weintraub said. “That’s not a sustainable way to go to the playoffs. Now, it can be done, but I think they’ll need a better plan of attack.”
THE DEFENSE: In their regression analysis, more than 100 variables were looked at for each team. They had to consider the ensuing upheaval with replacing five starters on the defense.
“These guys could step up and play lights out,” Weintraub said. “Stephen Nicholas could turn out to be a Pro Bowl linebacker, we’ll see. But the trend over the last 15 years with teams putting (five or more) starters who have played so little into their starting defense, doesn’t bode well.”
CAVEAT: They still have to play the games.
“We projected the Falcons not to be good last year,” Weintraub said. “But (Matt Ryan) significantly out performed the trends. Surely, that can happen again. We certainly acknowledge that there are times when players step up and become superstars.”
IN SUMMATION: A lot has to happen for the Falcons to end that 43-year streak of never posting back-to-back winning seasons.
“Overall, they have a lot of trends, anchoring them and weighing them back to the pack this year,” Weintraub said. “Right now the numbers say they are going to take a step back.”
You can get the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 off their website: www.footballoutsiders.com and print-on-demand copies from Amazon.com in late July.
D.LED’S UNOFFICIAL/BOOTLEG DEPTH CHART
MISS KERI BABY: Falcons need to line up Decatur's Keri Hilson to do the National Anthem to open the season.
Before we get to the depth chart, here are three campers to keep an eye on:
Rashad Bobino, Linebacker, 5-11, 230: Was a big thumper at middle linebacker for the Texas Longhorns. Made the Big 12 team three times. Check out his pro day workout.
Ryan Stanchek, Guard, 6-3, 305: Was a four-year starter at West Virginia. Was all-Big East in 2006 and 2008. Played left tackle in college. Got snubbed by the coaches in the all-conference voting last season.
Thomas Johnson, Defensive tackle, 6-2, 305: His name keeps popping up. Has been with three teams since coming out of Middle Tennessee in 2005. He hasn’t been able to stick with Dallas, Houston or the New York Jets. He made three starts with Houston in 2006.
THE DEPTH CHART
QUARTERBACK: Starter — Matt Ryan. Backups – 2. Chris Redman, 3. D.J. Shockley, and 4. John Parker Wilson.
RUNNING BACK: Starters — Michael Turner and Ovie Mughelli. Backups – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Jason Snelling, 3. Thomas Brown and 4. Verron Haynes.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Starters – Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Backups – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran, 3. Eric Weems, 4. Troy Bergeron, 5. Chandler Williams, 6. Aaron Kelly, 7. Darren Mougey and 8. Bradon Godfrey.
TIGHT ENDS: Starter – Tony Gonzalez. Backups – 1. Ben Hartsock, 2. Justin Peelle, 3. Keith Zinger and 4. Jason Rader.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters – LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Todd McClure, RG Harvey Dahl, RT Tyson Clabo. Backups – Center – 1. Brett Romberg, 2. Ben Wilkerson.
Guards – 1. Jeremy Newberry, 2. Romberg, 3. Wilkerson, 4. Ryan Stanchek, 5. Jose Valez.
Tackles – 1. Will Svitek, 2. Quinn Ojinnaka, 3. Garrent Reynolds, 4. Michael Butterworth.
Falcons All-Pro defensive end John Abraham.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters – RDE John Abraham, RT Peria Jerry, LT Jonathan Babineaux, LDE Chauncey Davis.
Backups DE – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Kroy Biermann, 3. Lawrence Sidbury, 4. Willie Evans and 5. Maurice Lucas. DT – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Trey Lewis, 3. Jason Jefferson, 4. Thomas Johnson, 5. Vance Walker, 6. Tywain Myles
LINEBACKERS: Starters – WLB Michael Peterson, MLB Curtis Lofton, SLB Stephen Nicholas. Backups: 1. Coy Wire, 2. Edmond Miles, 3. Tony Gilbert, 4. Spencer Adkins, 5. Robert James, and 6. Rashad Bobino.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: LCB – Chris Owens, FS – Erik Coleman, SS – William Moore, RCB – Chris Houston. Backups – CB – 1. Chevis Jackson, 2. Brent Grimes, 3. William Middleton, 4. Von Hutchins, 5. David Irons (injured), 6. Glenn Sharpe, 7. Tony Tiller. S – 1. Thomas DeCoud, 2. Jamaal Fudge, 3. Antoine Harris, 4. Eric Brock.
SPECIAL TEAMS – KR – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Thomas Brown. PR – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran. P – Michael Koenen. PK Jason Elam. LS – Mike Schneck.
The Countdown to Training Camp is winding down!
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1,184 comments Add your comment
jason
July 23rd, 2009
10:51 pm
Wr, I think I played that once, and was drunk. I was so bad that there were side bets on what cards I had in my hand.
Spades, I tweaked my Spades playing in the militar working night shift. There are a thousand ways to play. Nil, Double neel, Ace high, Duece high and so on. I actually went blind nil and won. I need a couple of hands to see your style of play and then its on. I can bid straight up, or I can make someone do some sandbagging.
WR
July 23rd, 2009
11:18 pm
Jason, I gotta hold you to a higher esteem, I wasn’t in the military but thats where I learned it from. My father is a vietnam vet, he taught me the game really early, I haven’t heard anyone bring up all the different ways you can play in quite some time, he started me on Bizwiz, I don’t know if I spelled or said that right but hopefully you get the point.
WR
July 23rd, 2009
11:19 pm
Maybe it is bid wiz
WR
July 23rd, 2009
11:21 pm
JJ, yeah I have fallen up into Derby’s before, not quite my crowd though. I got to through something on you and take you down to Loca Luna, man you would lose your mind, probably wouldn’t hear from you in the cage for weeks. H@ll even the playa would be jealous.
WR
July 23rd, 2009
11:22 pm
throw not through, my bad
jason
July 23rd, 2009
11:22 pm
WR, Yeah, I had a buddy in the Army when I first started playing and he like you could hold his own with the worst of teammates (me). He could count the cards and know what you are holding in the second or third rotation. I can’t count cards and ADD keeps me from remembering what has been played. I usually play off my partner more than anything.
WR
July 23rd, 2009
11:32 pm
Jason, I wish you were still in the ATL, if you can play off your partner its still all good. When I play with someone thats not quite sure of themselves I try to get them to understand my lead, for example, if I throw the two of diamonds, its like letting them know I have diamonds on deck, if you have the Ace of diamonds play it now because that suits going to be cut really soon. Now if I turnaround and throw out the king of diamonds, I’m cutting that suit really soon, if not immediately after I have thrown the king. To me it seems simple, but I have been playing so long, maybe I don’t get that its hard to understand. Speaking of counting cards, my aunt was the queen, I use to watch her take people’s money in what they called blue lights in the basement parties. I’m telling on myself now but yeah I grew up around gambling and boos, so I was really good at cards early in life.
CBrass
July 24th, 2009
12:23 am
Hey guys just checking in before going to bed. Page 12…nice work ladies and gents. I skimmed the post and i see that you guys want me to join FF…I’m still not sure about that. I really do not think I’m ready for that just yet…I’m honestly still learning the game.
I’ll check up with you guys later. Have a good one.
God Bless!
BT
July 24th, 2009
7:11 am
Good morning all.
CB, here is a link to a site that explains the basics on just about everything (NFL football related) that a fan needs to know and understand.
I recommend it for anyone who wants to know more about football.
Football 101:
http://football.calsci.com/ADay.html
JJ, Spalding Derby is OK for lunch on Friday`s.
A nice steak lunch for less that $8.00
I do that about once a month
Overall, the Alpharetta Derby is little nicer place IMO
That said, when I go out on game days, I prefer Locos.
A touch of Athens everytime.
SeminoleWarrior
July 24th, 2009
7:45 am
Good Morning Cage Family…
Page 12 and counting. How sweeeeeeeeet it is!! Looks like that was a very lively discussion again last night.
I hated being out of the loop last night while I was at the office. Could not even get help from Sarah with the business at hand. But you can’t keep a good man down. It’s only a minor thing since the shift rotate every two weeks. I shall be back!!
Glad that we have Moore signed and ready to hit it next week. Come Jerry; get it done!! Spades? Did I hear someone say spades? When and where? Ready to rock baby!!
SeminoleWarrior
July 24th, 2009
7:53 am
WR..
Can’t do RETRO until I return to the day set next week. “Blogs” have been shut out of our network. You and JJ will have to hold it down until I return to the day beat on Monday..
Sarah B
July 24th, 2009
9:50 am
Anybody know Pinochle? We play lots of cards.
Unca' Bob
July 24th, 2009
10:05 am
Sarah B,
Wasn’t that the lying little boy that ran with Gapetto?
Unca' Bob
July 24th, 2009
10:06 am
BT,
Great site post. I will go back.
Unca' Bob
July 24th, 2009
10:43 am
Ladies and gentlemen, The Bird Cage is now open. D3 has it up and running. Pick it up on the Falcon Main Page.
D3
July 24th, 2009
11:07 am
ALRIGHT LADIES AND GENTLEMEN! ITS OFFICIAL: WE HAVE OUR OWN FALCONS FAN BIRD CAGE BLOG! ITS OVER ON THE MAIN SPORTS PAGE OR ON THE FALCONS AJC PAGE.
WANT TO TELL YOU HOW MUCH I’VE ENJOYED WHAT WE’VE BUILT HERE IN DOL’S BLOG AND THIS IS A TRUE PRODUCT OF YOU ALL. WE’VE CREATED A FAMILY HERE AND I WANT TO TELL YOU ALL HOW MUCH I APPRECIATE YOU ALL IN THIS WONDERFUL FALCONS FORUM.
LOOKS LIKE YOU’LL BE HAVING TO DO DOUBLE BLOGGING DUTY FOR DOL’S AND THE BIRD CAGE. I’M SURE YOU WON’T MIND.
SEE YOU OVER THERE!
John Waynesworld
July 24th, 2009
11:26 am
It is good to see so many familiar postings. I see some new names too. I hope everyone is well and I hope each of you has had much summer fun. Had to go away for awhile for a big project at work. So much enthusiasm still here and time is ticking!
tick, tick…
I am greatly anticipating the day when the radio and TV heads across the nation all sound off in unison…”ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!” The weekdays will go by so much better when I have a thousand pieces of stats to chew on and digest from the Sunday before. And before that, we have a very exciting preseason to witness. Who goes, who stays (TBrown). I am pumped to see our D line in action, with the new kids vs the vets (and JA).
Like a pig in…his element! I can’t wait!
Unca’, where is it? I looked in the Falcons main and the blog section and couldn’t see it.
John G
July 24th, 2009
4:00 pm
I’m comforted by the fact that this “Outsiders” writer doesn’t know the difference between WEAK and WEEK.
“…if Matt Ryan goes down in the second weak of the season, then the whole thing falls apart.”
Keep the haterade coming guys. Nobody gave us a chance last year either. Tommy D’s draft mastery can easily overcome the continuance of this streak that the grammatically inept writers of the Outsiders are predicting. Stay golden Ponyboy, you’ll learn homonyms one day.
deionfalcon21
July 24th, 2009
7:14 pm
is this guy a professional sports writer????? think logically for once and leave the stats and trends to the wayside. how can you say that wiht a tight end threat like tony g lining up for most of the plays and locking up a secondary guy to cover him can you say that turner will be less productive. if anything i can see him have a few less carries but for more yards. 7 and 9 huh? i bet you think the eagles are best team in the nfc too. maybe you should switch to another sport toolbag
richbrave
July 25th, 2009
9:58 am
So is my man and fellow alum SIDBURY in the house yet?
Ken Strickland
July 26th, 2009
12:33 am
UPDATE! My bid on a house got accepted and I could be back in the ATL by the end of August, YEAAAAAAA! I had actually started to come to the realization I might end up spending this winter in the Dominican Republic.
Who would you prefer to start along side DT JBabineaux, PJerry or TLewis? TLewis is bigger and maybe a little stronger. He could provide better protection for MLB CLofton, provide run stopping capability, as well as an adequate pass rush on 1st and 2nd downs. PJerry could be teamed with DE JAbraham and used like he was used last yr, in obvious passing situations and 4th quarters.
Joebrave
July 26th, 2009
8:30 am
I see the virtual clowns are/have been out in force, good lord these ignorant moron think Vick is going to play week one!(FAT CHANCE), deserves a shot at it but, I don’t think Goodell is going to cave to VS,VS2and Daryl.
And douchebag Daryl, I seem to recall A.Blank being a billionaire, It’s not that the Falcons don’t have money to sign Jerry, it’s that Jerry thinks he was a top ten pick!(see Ole Miss)!
Now that being said,Mr.Vick is no longer employed by the Falcons, and this year I refuse to cave to the IGNORANT rantings of the uneducated fools!
Joebrave
July 26th, 2009
8:32 am
I for one would like to see the starting D-Line look like Abe,Babs,Lewis,and Sids!
Ken Strickland
July 26th, 2009
12:56 pm
JOEBRAVE-Not sure Sidbury is ready to become a starter just yet, especially over a seasoned vet like CDavis, or hopefully a much improved JAnderson, or even an improved KBiermann. Right now he’s a rather raw, but very, very athletically talented physical specimen, but his techniques and skills have to match his physicality.
I think he’ll be just as valuable coming off the bench to either replace or compliment JAbraham in passing situations. Can you imagine an OL trying to contain the speed, quickness and athleticism of a pass rush featuring DE’s JAbraham and LSidbury coming off the edges and DT’s PJerry and JBabineaux, or JAnderson coming up the middle? Instead of moving DE JAbraham around and overplaying DT JBabineaux, like we did last yr in passing situations, with DE LSidbury and DT’s PJerry and VWalker we have the equivalent of 2 JAbrahams and 3 JBabineaux’s.
I REALLY LIKE THIS TEAM PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CBrass
July 26th, 2009
3:40 pm
Ken Strickland,
Glad to see that you will be back in Atlanta. D3 has the Bird Cage Blog up and run and I can’t wait to see you over there.
gatorhater
July 26th, 2009
4:11 pm
Every Falcon fan should know that we don’t do well when we are predicted finish high in the standings. So take 7-9 predictions as a positive sign. They know we will have plenty of offense, but defense seems to be the reason for our projected failures. Yeah, these guys are young, but they are extremely talented and Brian Vangorder is very aggressive and knows how to utilize youthful speed. Sure we are gonna give up some points here and there. But these guys will rank somewhere in the middle of NFL defenses and that will be adequate. Just wait and see if we dont rank near the top in QB sacks and TFL. If we stay healthy, I think we can be a contender in the NFC for deep run in the post season. GO FALCONS!!!!!!!!!!
Ken Strickland
July 27th, 2009
2:38 am
I see that some of the trash that was prominant back when these blogs were being dominated by IGNORANCE AND STUPIDITY are back. DON’T RESPOND TO THSES ANAL MINDED MORONS. Last preseason they were barking that the Falcons would go 2-14, and now they’re smelling up these blogs with predictions of 4-12.
Anyone stupid enough to believe law enforcement, and the courts, are responsibile for Vick getting involved in illegal dogfighting, his relatives and friends selling illegal drugs and getting caught, then becoming witness for the gov and providing federal procecuters with the evidence used to convict Vick, are simply too damned stupid for words to describe. THEIR IGNORANCE AND STUPIDITY DOESN’T MERIT A RESPONSE.
Vick has spent the last 2yrs in federal prison and the Falcons have risen out of the ashes left by MVick, yet these IGNORANT MONKEYS are still waiting for his return to the Falcons. And these MORONS are mad at everyone else because of what Vick did to himself. AM I THE ONLY ONE THAT DETECTS A LITTLE MAN LOVE OR MAN CRUSH GOING ON BETWEEN VICK SUPPORTER, BIGEASY AND MVICK?
WE’RE ALL ENTITLED TO FREE SPEACH, THAT DOESN’T MEAN WHEN MORONS MAKE THEIR PRESENCE FELT, WE HAVE TO USE IT TO RESPOND. REMEMBER THE OLD SAYING, NEVER GET INTO A DISCUSSION/ARGUMENT WITH AN IDIOT, FOR THEY WILL ALWAYS SUCCEED IN DEFEATING YOU WITH THEIR VAST EXPERIENCE.
nhe
July 27th, 2009
4:50 pm
Defense will be fine if the following happens:
1. Chris Houston looks back for the ball! He is actually a very good cover corner except for one fatal flaw that cost us 5 TDS last year. He doesn’t EVER look back for the ball, he just tries to stick his hand in the receiver’s face. If the DB is 6-2 he can get away with just putting his hands up, but at 5-9, Houston has gotta look back for the ball and make a play on it. During preseason he should concentrate on nothing but looking back for the ball, even if he gets beat by 20 yards…….he needs to lose that bad habit, it killed us in 3 or 4 of our losses last year, including the Cardinal Playoff game.
2. The New England style defensive line rotation continues to develop as planned. This is the most underrated part of the Falcon’s team IMO. Dimitroff has brought in the New England DL rotation philosophy and we saw it began to take shape last year – making Jamal Anderson a 2 position player and increasing the PT for Biermann and Jefferson as the season went along. This year, adding Jerry, Sidbury, T Lewis, etc will make this group even deeper and much fresher in the 4th quarter. It will also mean less running down snaps for Abraham – which is a good thing. I really think the Falcons know what they’re doing here and this unit will be the surprise we’ll be talking about – much like the OL was last year.
3. Adequately replace Foxworth. This will be the hardest guy to replace, but the Falcons were right to not spend money they didn’t have here. This is one of those situations where we may find another Foxworth on a team that has a guy lost in a numbers game. I don’t see the candidates we have working – C Jackson is a nice piece, but he’s a nickel back still. The Falcons should find the player they need here, but he’s probably not currently on the roster.
4. Err on the side of missing an assignment on occasion in favor of flying to the ball and trying to make a play. Brooking and Boley killed us last year by playing assignment football and not making a play. Turn the young guys loose, let them feel free to fail – especially Nicholas and Moore……we may give up a few more long TDs on a missed assignment, but if we double or triple our turnovers from last year, that’s more than a fair trade.
Prove the Haters Wrong
July 27th, 2009
8:00 pm
Go Gettem Vick!
The man is yet to sign with a football team, has JUST NOW been officially conditionally reinstated, and he’s already seeing “NFL ANALYST” knockin on his QB ability.
Wish him the best of luck wherever he ends up. People here forget he did some great things for ATL pre-dogfighting scandal.
JJ
July 28th, 2009
7:00 am
to get to D3 “Bird Cage”:
– move cursor over sports tab – do not click
– a blue box pulls down, clicl on “more blogs”
– scroll down to Bird Cage
kevin
July 28th, 2009
2:04 pm
nope they sour at atlanta these writers we go 12-4 this season……
BIRDMAN
July 31st, 2009
12:05 pm
yea yea.Every body has his or her thoughts.Now hear this.The Falons are now one of the contenters in the NFL top 10 .They will prove that this year .10 wins at least .Coaching ‘ they now have one the best are should I say the best staffs , they have ever had ,Players ,everything to that puzzle is now fallng into place.Main reason Auther Blank.He has said a number of times he wants the ring on his finger and with his money ‘and determanation ,plus his background as a man of acomplishments.He will get it .If not this year , then it want be long .You all can bank on that
BIRDMAN
July 31st, 2009
2:43 pm
JASON….Hear you say Cairo …how about Whigham..Mean anything ? GO FALCONS..
Tom
August 12th, 2009
3:43 pm
I am a falcons and fan and don’t want to sound negative but you have to think about the teams the Birds played last year and how many had winning records !!!…This year will be tuff, but last year we had many Red Zone chances and settled for Field Goals, i think Tony G. will have a big influence in the zone this year, we will need him. If we can go 8-8 will be a good year, any better then that will be a great year. It will take Ryan delivering some wins in the last 2 mins.
Go Birds.