Falcons predicted to finish 7-9 by “Outsiders”
BLOGCATIONVILLE — Headed for that last blog-cation before the season starts. Needed to get a few things for you all to nimble on.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan won an ESPY for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Show airs at 9 p.m. Sunday.
Not everyone is predicting greatness for the Falcons in 2009.
The folks over at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, are predicting more doom and gloom. In their eyes, the streak will reach 44 seasons. There will be no playoffs and someone’s pet is probably going to die.
In the publications’ eight page analysis of the Falcons, Rob Weintraub, a local free lancer and TV production worker, points out that over the last 30 years, 17 teams have improved by seven games — including the Falcons and Miami last season — but only the 1998 Jets under Duane Charles Parcells (some folks call him Bill) have improved the next season.
Those other 14 teams, wins decrease by an average for four. That would put the Falcons at 7-9 in 2009.
“Every other team has come back to the pack for various reasons,” Weintraub said. “It’s the NFL, parity rules.”
Part of the Falcons summary reads, “2009: That bar is set much higher, and the team is weighted down by almost certain regression.”
Here’s how they see the Falcons coming back to the pack:
THE DECLINE IN HEALTH: “The more statistical things that we’ve gone through point to injuries. The Falcons were a very healthy team last year. They were fifth-best in terms of our stats: man-games-missed by their starters.
Here's what an ESPY looks like.
“We found that there is no correlation from year-to-year. Teams that stay healthy for one year don’t necessarily stay healthy the next year. In fact, teams will go backwards in that category.
“If you just have a couple of injuries to a couple of linemen, that could be overcome. Now, if Matt Ryan goes down in the second weak of the season, then the whole thing falls apart. There is a great deal of fortune involved.”
Falcons fans have been there. Check 1999, injuries to Jamal “Jam” Anderson not Jamaal “Sackmaster” Anderson and to Chris Chandler the year after going 14-2 and reaching the Super Bowl. That team went 5-11.
THE SCHEDULE: The Falcons don’t have the AFC West and the NFC Central to kick around. They have the AFC East and NFC East.
“The schedule is significantly more difficult,” Weintraub said.
THE CURSE OF 370: The Outsiders have come up with this “Curse of 370” notion.
Here’s how that works, only one running back – Eric Dickerson – has managed to stare down the Curse.
“Any running back who carries 370 times or more in a single season, there is a significant dropoff or injury the next season,” Weintraub said. “Eric Dickerson is the only guy who’s beat that.”
Eric Dickerson
Micheal Turner had 394 carries for 1,742 yards in 17 games last season.
“You are talking about a very high probability that he’s going to experience a significant (dropoff) this year,” Weintraub said. “Now, it would behoove the Falcons greatly to ease off on his carries. They have Jerious Norwood, whom we love as a back.
“If they can establish a real combination back there, that could definitely offset some of the projected decline in Turner’s numbers.”
The great Dickerson went for 1,808 yards on 390 carries in 1983. He followed that up with 2,105 yards on 379 carries in 1984.
In 1988, Dickerson had 388 carries for 1,659 yards and in 1989 he had 1,311 yards on 314 carries.
Sadly, he was worn out at age 29. By the time he got to the Falcons in 1993, Dickerson could only muster 91 yards on 26 carries.
THE X- FACTOR: The Outsiders don’t know what to do with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Tony and October Gonzalez
“We’ve never really had a projection to account for adding a hall of fame tight end, when your biggest need is tight end,” Weintraub said. “It’s obviously a plus, assuming he stays healthy and stays at the level he’s been at.
“He’s also defied all kinds of logic and projections that we’ve done. Our numbers have said they he was going to fall off for the last three years and he hasn’t. That’s a testimony to what a great all-time great player that he is.”
CAN RYAN WIN SHOOT OUTS?: The Outsiders ranks Ryan’s rookie season as the finest of any quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
“They may have to beat teams 35-31 every week,” Weintraub said. “That’s not a sustainable way to go to the playoffs. Now, it can be done, but I think they’ll need a better plan of attack.”
THE DEFENSE: In their regression analysis, more than 100 variables were looked at for each team. They had to consider the ensuing upheaval with replacing five starters on the defense.
“These guys could step up and play lights out,” Weintraub said. “Stephen Nicholas could turn out to be a Pro Bowl linebacker, we’ll see. But the trend over the last 15 years with teams putting (five or more) starters who have played so little into their starting defense, doesn’t bode well.”
CAVEAT: They still have to play the games.
“We projected the Falcons not to be good last year,” Weintraub said. “But (Matt Ryan) significantly out performed the trends. Surely, that can happen again. We certainly acknowledge that there are times when players step up and become superstars.”
IN SUMMATION: A lot has to happen for the Falcons to end that 43-year streak of never posting back-to-back winning seasons.
“Overall, they have a lot of trends, anchoring them and weighing them back to the pack this year,” Weintraub said. “Right now the numbers say they are going to take a step back.”
You can get the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 off their website: www.footballoutsiders.com and print-on-demand copies from Amazon.com in late July.
D.LED’S UNOFFICIAL/BOOTLEG DEPTH CHART
MISS KERI BABY: Falcons need to line up Decatur's Keri Hilson to do the National Anthem to open the season.
Before we get to the depth chart, here are three campers to keep an eye on:
Rashad Bobino, Linebacker, 5-11, 230: Was a big thumper at middle linebacker for the Texas Longhorns. Made the Big 12 team three times. Check out his pro day workout.
Ryan Stanchek, Guard, 6-3, 305: Was a four-year starter at West Virginia. Was all-Big East in 2006 and 2008. Played left tackle in college. Got snubbed by the coaches in the all-conference voting last season.
Thomas Johnson, Defensive tackle, 6-2, 305: His name keeps popping up. Has been with three teams since coming out of Middle Tennessee in 2005. He hasn’t been able to stick with Dallas, Houston or the New York Jets. He made three starts with Houston in 2006.
THE DEPTH CHART
QUARTERBACK: Starter — Matt Ryan. Backups – 2. Chris Redman, 3. D.J. Shockley, and 4. John Parker Wilson.
RUNNING BACK: Starters — Michael Turner and Ovie Mughelli. Backups – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Jason Snelling, 3. Thomas Brown and 4. Verron Haynes.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Starters – Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Backups – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran, 3. Eric Weems, 4. Troy Bergeron, 5. Chandler Williams, 6. Aaron Kelly, 7. Darren Mougey and 8. Bradon Godfrey.
TIGHT ENDS: Starter – Tony Gonzalez. Backups – 1. Ben Hartsock, 2. Justin Peelle, 3. Keith Zinger and 4. Jason Rader.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters – LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Todd McClure, RG Harvey Dahl, RT Tyson Clabo. Backups – Center – 1. Brett Romberg, 2. Ben Wilkerson.
Guards – 1. Jeremy Newberry, 2. Romberg, 3. Wilkerson, 4. Ryan Stanchek, 5. Jose Valez.
Tackles – 1. Will Svitek, 2. Quinn Ojinnaka, 3. Garrent Reynolds, 4. Michael Butterworth.
Falcons All-Pro defensive end John Abraham.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters – RDE John Abraham, RT Peria Jerry, LT Jonathan Babineaux, LDE Chauncey Davis.
Backups DE – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Kroy Biermann, 3. Lawrence Sidbury, 4. Willie Evans and 5. Maurice Lucas. DT – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Trey Lewis, 3. Jason Jefferson, 4. Thomas Johnson, 5. Vance Walker, 6. Tywain Myles
LINEBACKERS: Starters – WLB Michael Peterson, MLB Curtis Lofton, SLB Stephen Nicholas. Backups: 1. Coy Wire, 2. Edmond Miles, 3. Tony Gilbert, 4. Spencer Adkins, 5. Robert James, and 6. Rashad Bobino.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: LCB – Chris Owens, FS – Erik Coleman, SS – William Moore, RCB – Chris Houston. Backups – CB – 1. Chevis Jackson, 2. Brent Grimes, 3. William Middleton, 4. Von Hutchins, 5. David Irons (injured), 6. Glenn Sharpe, 7. Tony Tiller. S – 1. Thomas DeCoud, 2. Jamaal Fudge, 3. Antoine Harris, 4. Eric Brock.
SPECIAL TEAMS – KR – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Thomas Brown. PR – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran. P – Michael Koenen. PK Jason Elam. LS – Mike Schneck.
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1,184 comments Add your comment
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
10:48 pm
First, the Boss. Now, WR. JJ, stay with me here or else it will be me and the Player hosting tomorrow. LOL.
jason
July 21st, 2009
10:48 pm
Seminole Warrior, again, not saying he is as good as Dunn. Just that they are very similar in style.
JJ, Brown went to UGA when we were loaded with 3,4,5, RBs that could start anywhere. That is a good thing with Brown. He didn’t carry the ball 300 per in college. he still has some tread on the tires.
WR
July 21st, 2009
10:50 pm
It was Calvin’s time, everyone knew it and he left gracefully so no regrets. I do get your take on KM and MS, I thought they should have been more dedicated, KM even seemed hostile, like he was just waiting to get his chance, get his stats, and bolt, so I get you on that.
Now back to Dunn, Dunn is the original warrior, no one preformed in the trenches like Dunn, as I have reminded the cage often I’m a GT fan, but Dunn made me a FSU fan. To see such a small guy handle the big boys, and I will say it again, he handled the big boys, he did it in college as well as the pros and all the while he was the constant professional, I won’t take anything away from TB, but he really has to show me something to be put in Dunn’s category.
jason
July 21st, 2009
10:51 pm
Seminole Warrior, MS and KM can take their collective Arses back to Texas and NJ. That’s why I like UGA getting players from the South East, They may leave early, but they will remain loyal as long as they are there.
jason
July 21st, 2009
10:53 pm
WR, Exactly. Dunn was the reason that I would actually sit and FSU with my brother. TB may never be near as good as Dunn production wise. They are just similar in how they play being so small. I think Dunn is better at shielding his body and not taking the big hits. TB can’t seem to avoid those.
jason
July 21st, 2009
10:56 pm
WR, on CJ. You knew every SAT you watched that he would sale out his body for for a chance to get Tech a win, or at least give them a chance. I think after playing 3 years with Ball he had to go. The only thing that sucked is he landed in DET with more worthless QBs.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
10:58 pm
Sounds like to guys that give/gave their all. Jason, you steered me into giving the benefit of the doubt to BVG. I’m going to keep my eyes on the man with the heart, Mr. Brown.
Let me set the record straight. On behalf of the Seminole nation, I am quite sure we will never see another like Warrick Dunn…period. That drive, that heart, that love of game WILL never again be repeated in a Garnet and Gold, Red and Pewter, or Red and Black uniform.
WR
July 21st, 2009
10:58 pm
Reggie Ball, what more can you say, I honestly can’t think of a worse player in GT annuals, and to think the guy was allowed to start for four years, if I was smoking crack I would know to pull Ball. Okay I’m good, thanks Jason that was some really good looking out, as the saying goes with friends like you I don’t need any………………………………..LOL
Unca' Bob
July 21st, 2009
11:00 pm
Wow! I have never seen a blog more active than this one. Seminole Warrior, A tip of my Falcon’s cap to you. You have done a masterful job of keeping it fresh, as well as active. And, yes Sir, I am indeed a Veteran. I spent 1969 & 1970 in the United States Marine Corps in Chu Lai, South Viet Nam. The I corps area. For those of you that are unfamiliar, it’s the most northern section of then, South Viet Nam. I reckin’ a little Bio can’t hurt. Any Questions?
jason
July 21st, 2009
11:04 pm
WR, I didn’t want to, but you called my man Brown dumb (not the brightest) Were the other QBs at TEch that bad?
Seminole, there will never be another Dunn. For his size he was the best.
WR
July 21st, 2009
11:05 pm
Seminole, agreed, I know we have to get back to our birds but Dunn is truly one of my all time favorites. I wish he could have retired gracefully instead of being cut, you said in a seminole’s uniform, but I wonder at times will you ever see it again. You really have to go back and watch tape to really understand this guy’s heart, determination, and commitment, it was like no other, I like Jason, can truly say he made me watch FSU football, the guy was truly amazing, sounds like some interesting Retro talk is brewing.
jason
July 21st, 2009
11:08 pm
WR, The reason I can’t stand Ball is during his Frosh year he scrambled out of the pocket for like a 10-15 yard gain and ran out of bounds in front of Thurman on the UGA side line. Starts talking alot of $h!t , I mean would not shut up. A couple of plays later he scrambles again and ducks out of bounds in front of Thurman again on the Tech sideline, and Odell just lays his @$$ out like 10 yards out of bounds. Funny thing is I don’t remember one Tech player coming to defend him. That says alot about Ball as a Freshman.
jason
July 21st, 2009
11:10 pm
My meomeries of Dunn at FSU was that swing pass out of the backfield. An unstoppable play.
jason
July 21st, 2009
11:12 pm
I am not talking all my DAWGS up as the greatest. I will admit to being a homer. That said, I really don’t know what TB will do. First, he has to stay healthy, and second, he has to make the most of his oppurtunity. That’s what Dunn did and then some every step along the way to the NFL.
WR
July 21st, 2009
11:12 pm
Man Unca’Bob, I think you were hanging out with my pop, although he was over there a bit earlier, his tells from being based in germany are classic, you probably could understand this better than others, but he once told me how he took out his boot laces tied them around his arm and tied it to some pipes up under his service vehicle, so that he would look like he was working because he had hung out all night the night before.
jason
July 21st, 2009
11:14 pm
WR, We have all done something similar to that. Just prayed like heck that no NCO or OIC came anywhere near us.
jason
July 21st, 2009
11:16 pm
All right Guys. I got my Falcon fix, and heck , got my DAWG fix for the night. I am going to sit back popa top and play some NCAA2010. I will check back in before I go to bed. Later… Great bloggage today. Today’s player of the game is brought to you by Red Stripe, helping whit guys learn to dance for over 50 years.
CBras is the blogger of the day. Congragulate her when she comes back on. Later guys.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
11:20 pm
Stop the Press!! I’m going mushy here and I really mean it!!
UnCa, this changes everything. I’m proud of my own serivce and that of my family, to include the little Warrior serving today. But I have read of the hellish battles that took place in the area in which you served. You sir, are a TRUE warrior. I respected you from day one when we met here. Now, it is at a seriously new level.
I don’t know if you fought in that hell. I’m sure you lost some good friends there. My heart and love to them and their memories.
Semper Fi, UnCa. That’s always faithful to the rest of the Cage. You, given that hellish place on this earth, are a true patriot.
At FSU, we honor the only UNCONQUERED and UNDEFEATED group of warrior among all the nations. But nothing we can do compares to the honor that I feel to be able to call you my friend and a Marine.
Semper Fi my brother….Semper Fi.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
11:21 pm
WR, remind me to make sure we give this man honors tomorrow during RETRO. I’m totally serious.
Sarah B
July 21st, 2009
11:27 pm
His Dog!!!
WR
July 21st, 2009
11:33 pm
Trust me when I say I understand Seminole, between my Father and his friends I believe thats the primary reason I never entered the military, but I have always respected the people who choose to protect our country. Sadly to say that even after all these years, my father has the occasional flashback dream, what he saw and what he went through wouldn’t allow him to even consider allowing myself and my siblings to enter the military. I believe thats why I am so honored by our soldiers today, thats a commitment beyond all commitments, to commit to defend people you have never met and probably will never meet is the strongest of commitments. So tomorrow Unca’Bob will have his dedication admired during the Retro hour.
WR
July 21st, 2009
11:34 pm
Sarah, are you awake, his dog, feel free to explain because that one flew over my head.
D3
July 22nd, 2009
12:02 am
Great Tuesday P.M. ‘Cagers! Jeez, its almost a job to catch up these days if you stay away too long. Just started the 8th page a little earlier, stay away for a minute and……BAM, 9th page. To say the Bird-Cage is alive and well would be an understatement. Where to begin……
Seminole, JJ, & WR – NFL Retro, what a nice little addition to the ‘Cage. I’ll have to admit that I’m a touch younger to know about a lot of the earlier teams, but its nice to learn about the “real” days. If you guys have Tivo or DVR and you like the older stuff, you have GOT to record “America’s Game” on NFL Network. It profiles all the Super Bowl winning teams and is narrated by famous actors like Alec Baldwin, Laurence Fishburne, Martin Sheen, and Ed Harris. A Must Watch!
Newberry Retiring – This certainly opens a little bit of a hole on our masterful depth. From what I could comprehend, Newberry was looking to serve as a versatile backup, but mainly at guard since we have Romberg and Wilkerson at center. The question is whether we will look on the waiver wires during training camp, or look to develop one of the young undrafted rookie free agents we signed, Ryan Stanchek out of West VA or Jose Valdez out of Arkansas. Not including our long snapper, we carried 9 OL on the active roster: 3 C’s(McClure, Stepanovich, Wilkerson), 2 G
s(Dahl, Blaylock), and 4 T’s(Baker, Clabo, Ojinnaka, Weiner). So this year might look something like this: 4 T’s(Baker, Clabo, Svitek, Reynolds), 3 C’s(McClure, Romberg, Wilkerson), and 2 G’s(Dahl, Blaylock) assuming that Romberg, Wilkerson, or Ojinnaka being able to play guard in a pinch. What do you guys think?
Rich McKay’s Draft History – someone brought it up, see what you think:
2004
Deangelo Hall, Michael Jenkins, Matt Schaub, Demorrio Williams, Chad Lavalais, Etric Pruitt, Quincy Wilson
2005
Roddy White, Jonathan Babineaux, Jordan Beck, Chauncey Davis, Michael Boley, Frank Omiyale, Deandra Cobb, Darrell Shropshire
2006
Trade for John Abraham, Jimmy Williams, Jerious Norwood, Quinn Ojinnaka, Adam Jennings, DJ Shockley
2007
Jamaal Anderson, Justin Blaylock, Chris Houston, Laurent Robinson, Stephen Nicholas, Matrez Milner, Trey Lewis, Doug Datish, Daren Stone, Jason Snelling
30 Players Drafted
-Players still with team: 13, 43%
-Current/Projected Starters: 7, 23%
McKay certainly snagged some steals in there and it looks not quite as bad when you over some of the guys that were drafted later and either have a chance to start or make the team: Stephen Nicholas, Trey Lewis, Jerious Norwood, Chauncey Davis
Overall, McKay drafted at less than 50% rate of all draft picks still with the team. Even though he drafted well in the later rounds, he had some serious issues with 1st rounders: Deangelo Hall, Jimmy Williams, and Jamaal Anderson(jury still out). After review, McKay didn’t do quite as bad many thought, but imagine what TD would have done 30 draft picks? Out of 11 draft picks from last year, 9 made the active roster and 1 on the practice squad. It will be interesting to see who makes the roster again from last year and who makes it from this year.
Your thoughts on GM McKay’s overall draft classes?
Boxcarar
July 22nd, 2009
12:17 am
I am going to have to go back and catch up, but “9 PAGES” When I retired from reading, there were already an admirable 6. If the team works half as hard as the Cagers, we will be in great shape for years to come. It would be nice for the brain trust to know about the serious support that exists within these posts.
Sarah B
July 22nd, 2009
12:20 am
Rocky is JJ’s dog
D3
July 22nd, 2009
12:30 am
New Stadium – I’m very torn on this issue. I used to be totally against having a Dome in the South and missing out on beautiful fall sundays to watch the game. But after becoming a season ticket holder and seeing the renovations(particularly the color) than it has become an enjoyable experience heading into the Dome on a frigid or skin-melting hot day in GA. With the advent of our new direction, that place can really get rockin’ and make it a hostile place for opposing teams.
A new open-air stadium would be an amazing addition to Atlanta, and if they put it at the old Doraville plant than that would be totally awesome for JJ, Sarah, and me. But what would happen to the Dome? The Dome brings in so much business to Downtown and Atlanta in general. I assume the Dome would be torn down, but it could really be a great thing to keep open to keep the SEC Championship, Final Four, International Soccer Matches, etc. flowing to the ATL. It would be great to have the new stadium replace the Dome if possible, but that would require at least 2 years, and the Falcons would have to play at Tech or UGA and I don’t see that happening.
Your thoughts?
JJ
July 22nd, 2009
12:33 am
Sarah B. is correct! Queen of the cage and CBrass – princess!
WR
July 22nd, 2009
12:41 am
D3, you are still kicking, some of us were beginning to wonder, glad to have you back and as usual with a great analysis.
After reading over your post I see where there are at least 14 players who will start or play a major role for the Falcons or other teams in the NFL. Hall was a good pick, if it wasn’t for his mouth and selfishness he would still be in Atlanta. His skills are only as bad as his professionalism, which both have faded. There are some other really good players on that list but to truly judge McKay’s drafts is to take away Vick, which can’t be done. The birds built there team around one player, they focused the goals of the team around one player, they threw all of their cards in one basket based on one player. Was Mckay a bad GM for Atlanta or did he get caught up in the Vick hype. Hit or miss look at who he drafted and where they are now. TD did a great job last year, and hopefully this year’s class will turn out the same way, but how often does that happen, where just about everyone you select make the team and become big time contributors. In McKay’s defense, somewhere along the lines the coaches stopped building a team, as long as Vick was healthy they figured the team had a chance and so did the players. Thats why I like Smitty so much, he has forced the players to go back to the thinking of accountability, are you doing your job, are you doing your job to the best of your ability. There’s no more standing around waiting for someone to make a play, its now about what plays have you made, what can you do for the team. Kind of like the old saying by JFK, ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country. This team is recapturing what it means to be a team, the front office is focused on giving them the weapons to master that skill, so in essence was Mckay a bad GM because of the players he selected, or is TD a good GM because of the head coach and coaches he selected. Good and consistent teams continue to build no matter the players on the team, no England has the Great Tom Brady, but they continue to build, the Colts have the great Manning, but they continue to build, the Falcons had Vick and somewhere along the lines they stopped building, and it wasn’t all on McKay.
JJ
July 22nd, 2009
12:50 am
WR: war eagles my friend!
WR
July 22nd, 2009
12:55 am
Ah, Sarah, did you just figure that out, you got to tune in to NFL Retro, we can get you caught up on all the hot topics and our special in studio guests. Plus I miss you being around, obviously so does JJ can’t speak for his dog though. Its been another great day in the cage, I’m sure things will continue on but sleeps been calling for awhile now, so in the words of my fellow brothers, we’re one nation Falcon nation, Nuff respect everytime.
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
12:56 am
Settled here after the night beat. Glad to see that my partner D3 is on the scene. JJ still handing strong.
WR
July 22nd, 2009
12:57 am
JJ, did you just not hear me say I got to catch some zzzz, ain’t nobody worried about no War Eagles, you know whats in store for them, so go ahead and grab your ankles, you know whats coming.
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
1:14 am
WR.. I will bring it tomorrow as it pertains to UnCa Bob. The brother is most worthy!! History owes him and the guys that fought in that area. The indiscretions of a few cost so much heartache and pain for the masses. And we owe them big time. RETRO will even the odds as best we can..I promise that!!
Now, the game.
D3, currently the state is exploring options on replacing the Dome with another domed facility as part of the proposed next GWCC expansion. The deal is that the state’s proposal do not favor AB and the Falcons when it comes to revenue sharing. The Dome is now the home of Georgia State football and will still attract a lot of other GWCC venues. But I am sure that when the deal is done, AB will move us out.
I love outdoor stadiums and have stated that I would prefer a Raymond James like setup. That stadium is terrific for football. A good friend of mine lives in Indianapolis and he says that I would love the new Lucas Oil facility. It has a retractable roof, meaning we could have the option. I heard that AB is leaning in that direction which would be cool also.
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
1:16 am
I’m going to call it one here as well. Peace to all. See ya on the other side.
Nookah
July 22nd, 2009
1:21 am
Damn!!!! 9 pages? Are you kidding me? D Led where you at bro? Do you see what’s happening in The Cage? Back home in Jamrock we’d call this “Traffic Blockin’!!!! Nuff crowd!!!!
This is absolutely great. Seminole, you the man!! Sorry for singling out the Warrior but WR, JJ, Sarah B, Unca’ Bob, CBrass, CP, D3 and all the others who have kept this cookin’. I lift my hat to you all. This is remarkable. I’m going to add to this though. I saw this on Sporting News, enjoy: Check out the co-author!!
Falcons camp countdown: Will high expectations, defense weigh down Atlanta?
Roy Cummings, Vinnie Iyer and D. Orlando Ledbetter
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Saturday, Jul. 18, 2009 – 11:45 a.m. ET
This is the 25th in a series of team-by-team breakdowns that will run on SportingNews.com before the start of training camp.
Reporting date: July 31
What can we expect from QB Matt Ryan as he enters his second season?
What can we expect from QB Matt Ryan as he enters his second season?
With all due respect to the Arizona Cardinals, the Atlanta Falcons were the real surprise team of the ‘08 season. The Cardinals, after all, had a playoff-proven quarterback, a tried-and-true lead rusher and a pair of Pro Bowl wide receivers. Even their coaches had tasted success before, albeit with another franchise.
The Falcons, on the other hand, had none of those things. They were led by a rookie quarterback, a rookie head coach and a rookie general manager, yet still made the playoffs, losing to the Cards.
The question now is what will the Falcons do for an encore? They never have put together back-to-back winning seasons, and NFL history is filled with teams that came out of nowhere to shake the world one year only to fall back into a hole the next.
These Falcons appear to be built for the long haul. But if they can’t make a swift transition on the defensive side of the ball, they could lose the momentum they gained last year and go from being the league’s biggest surprise to its biggest disappointment.
What’s new
Offense: Coordinator Mike Mularkey is a fan of old-fashioned smash-mouth power football but will throw in some exotic twists. He has a lot of tricks and gadgets inside his playbook.
Now that quarterback Matt Ryan has a feel for the league, he’ll bring a lot of them out in ‘09. Mularkey won’t overdo it, though. He has the power rusher he wants in Michael Turner and still will lean on him. He’ll also use play-action fakes and throw downfield. In addition, the offense added the ultimate intermediate target in future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez.
What Ryan has to do this year is develop consistency and carry it through to the end of the season. Chances are he will. This is a kid who’s not afraid to do his homework.
Defense: Brian VanGorder would like to attack more in his second season as the coordinator, but he still doesn’t have a lot of weapons. If he can get the secondary to play better in his 4-3 zone scheme, he’ll get aggressive with his linebackers. If not, he’ll rely on the line to get the bulk of the pressure. Outside of end John Abraham there isn’t much to rely on there.
Over the past two years, the Falcons worked to improve the defense in both free agency and the draft but have come up short. It’s possible that their patience with players such as end Jamaal Anderson will start to pay off. If so, Atlanta could develop into a team to be feared.
Atlanta began rebuilding its linebacking corps last spring when the team drafted Curtis Lofton, moved him into the middle and pushed Keith Brooking to the weak side. Now Brooking has been released and in his place is veteran Mike Peterson, who had his best years while playing middle linebacker for coach Mike Smith and VanGorder when all three were with the Jaguars.
Strongside linebacker Michael Boley is gone, too. The Falcons plan to move young Stephen Nicholas into his spot, but Nicholas will get a run for the job from Coy Wire, who has a little more experience than Nicholas.
View from the other sideline
An opponent breaks down the Falcons
“You have to start with Matt Ryan, who was just lights-out last year. He’s an outstanding player, and he obviously has a great command of the game and great knowledge and awareness of what’s going on around him. They’re real solid there and should be for a while.
Coach Mike Smith talks with new Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Coach Mike Smith talks with new Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez.
“They have a very strong running game, too, with Turner, and with (Jerious) Norwood, they’ve got that changeup kind of back there as well. They also have one of the best fullbacks in the league (Ovie Mughelli). You talk about one-on-one blocking and moving people, he’s really good at it.
“On defense, the pass rush needs a little bit of a kick-start. Everybody’s getting on Jamaal Anderson, but he’s still playing pretty well. I’m not ready to sign off on him just yet. If he can get better or if they can add another guy to help out John Abraham, they should be OK there. Chauncey Davis could be that guy, but I see more as a rotational guy. If they get that pass rush going, they should be all right. But they’ve made a lot of changes at linebacker and in the secondary, so you have to see how that’s going to work out.”
Burning question
What can we expect from Matt Ryan in Year 2?
“The biggest part is trying to fine-tune the little things, trying to improve individually, and if we can do that, we can improve collectively. … That’s the kind of stuff we need to clean up now so when we get to training camp, we can work on our timing and have a great understanding of what we’re doing.” — Falcons QB Matt Ryan
Bottom line
Expectations are high again—maybe too high. The defense remains in a rebuilding mode, and the offense still is young at the most crucial spot on the field. The special teams are strong. If the defense can get better and the offense can avoid a precipitous drop in production, the Falcons should stay in the hunt for a division title.
This doesn’t look like a team that’s ready to make a long run in the playoffs, but a second consecutive postseason appearance is possible. It also would be unprecedented, and that would make 2009 another big success.
Go Falcons!!!!
Nuff respect everytime!!!!
CBrass
July 22nd, 2009
8:52 am
Hello all I see you guys kept things rolling like no other last night. I see you guys touched on the Stafford..Moreno subject and lets just say I’ll keep my opinion to myself. As for as Brown goes he’s one of my favorites…if he could have stayed health while he was here just imagine the type of numbers he could have put up.
So what’s on the board for today? I think we added just over 2.5 pages yesterday…AWESOME!!! Let’s keep it going.
jason
July 22nd, 2009
8:56 am
” This doesn’t look like a team that’s ready to make a long run in the playoffs, but a second consecutive postseason appearance is possible. It also would be unprecedented, and that would make 2009 another big success. ”
Someone please explain this to me. A possible run to the playoffs again, but ATL doesn’t look to make a long run into the playoffs. Are they saying we will be one and done again? It won’t be on the offense. We have got to get our Defense going. Improvement from week to week. With the youth on D, I am wottied that ny the time we get to the playoffs, fatigue may be an important factor. Year 2 of the process. I am not being negative, but I think year 3 is when we will really be pushing for the SuperBowl.
jason
July 22nd, 2009
8:58 am
CBrass, Good morning Blog ROY. You were named blogger of the day for yesterday. Keep it going girl…
D3
July 22nd, 2009
9:00 am
Blog Monster on the Loose!
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
9:01 am
Jason, CBrass. What’s happening. Yesterday was a balst for sure.
D3
July 22nd, 2009
9:02 am
Attempt #2
What’s Up Fellow ‘Cagers? Figured we be on to page 10 by now.
Nookah – what’s up my friend? I think that was a pretty fair assessment. I agree with the point that our defense will be young, but to say that we won’t have any playmakers on defense sounds pretty ridiculous. Added: Peria Jerry, William Moore, Chris Owens, Mike Peterson, a healthy Trey Lewis, and Stephen Nicholas.
As far as the offense goes, any sophomore slump should be considered with the addition of Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez at tight end. While I can see where we couldn’t make a “deep run” in the playoffs, to dismiss it outright is a little premature. I would say we’re close to where the NY Giants were a couple of years ago when they made the run to the Super Bowl.
Seminole – Thanks for the info on the Dome plan. Did you mean that they would blow up the Dome and replace with something else?
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
9:02 am
Blog monster attack already? Must be a Tech or Panthers fan hiding in the midst.
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
9:05 am
Jason, give a little feel my brother. Defensively, we will be in a steep learning curve this season. But like last, I see a lot of bend but don’t break aspects. Like you, I worry about hitting the wall later in the season; that is why depth is so critical.
jason
July 22nd, 2009
9:07 am
D3, Good Morning, Sir. I picked up where you left off on your MS/KM tangent. I had to get that off my chest. I think those 2 were more of the reason that UGA played as such last year. I think iw was that more than the injuries. I got the NCAA 2010 and if Akeem Dent and Freshman Marlon play anywhere near as they do on this game, UGA is going to alot better than anyone thinks. Dent is a SR now, and as far as this game he is living up to the hype he had back when he was a recruit. That’s enough for now, I have got to get to work. I will be off and on all day, work permitted. Later.
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
9:09 am
Forgive the typos. Was up late last night after the gig and the OJ is flowing. Hot water heater decided to meet the angels so the plumber is here early.
Along the lines of the point Jason brought up, I have a point that has me thinking this morn as well.
Jason mentioned the possible “wall” late in the season. I’m going one further. My research shows that Peria Jerry has not had an injury free season in the last three years. Should we be concerned about that as well as the “wall”?
jason
July 22nd, 2009
9:10 am
SeminoleWarrior, True, That’s my only concern is hitting the wall. I believe we will keep making adjustments as the season moves along. We talked about BVG alot a couple of days ago. I think it may be year 3 before the blitz is really unleashed. We have got to get the young guys prepped and ready for the NFL.
CBrass
July 22nd, 2009
9:12 am
jason,
I also feel that by year three with TD and Smitty we will most definitely be making a SuperBowl run. The schedule this year is just brutal. We may end up with one or two less wins but I do feel that we’re going to be a better team.
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
9:16 am
Shared sentiments CB. Back to back winning seasons are assured for the first time in my opinion as well as a spirited run down the home stretch.
Jason, as I have studied, your point is on target. It will take a year or two in order to get where we want to be. And that begs another question. With continued improvement, how long will Smitty be able to keep such a fantastic staff in tact? Another year of offensive bliss and I’m Mad Mike will get a call. Not an issue though because we are fortunate in that we have another offensive cooridnator on the staff. Coach Musgrave was an OC and a pretty good one too.
CBrass
July 22nd, 2009
9:22 am
I just think people expecting a SB this coming season is a big much. I’m not saying that I will not be stoked if that happens but I just do not see it. I hate to bring up the dreaded point again but we have to have back-to-back winning season before we even begin thinking about a SB.
Seminole Warrior,
How are you doing this morning?
SeminoleWarrior
July 22nd, 2009
9:25 am
Feeling fine here my dear. I’m with you on the Super Bowl hype for this season. Time is the key.