Falcons predicted to finish 7-9 by “Outsiders”
BLOGCATIONVILLE — Headed for that last blog-cation before the season starts. Needed to get a few things for you all to nimble on.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan won an ESPY for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Show airs at 9 p.m. Sunday.
Not everyone is predicting greatness for the Falcons in 2009.
The folks over at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, are predicting more doom and gloom. In their eyes, the streak will reach 44 seasons. There will be no playoffs and someone’s pet is probably going to die.
In the publications’ eight page analysis of the Falcons, Rob Weintraub, a local free lancer and TV production worker, points out that over the last 30 years, 17 teams have improved by seven games — including the Falcons and Miami last season — but only the 1998 Jets under Duane Charles Parcells (some folks call him Bill) have improved the next season.
Those other 14 teams, wins decrease by an average for four. That would put the Falcons at 7-9 in 2009.
“Every other team has come back to the pack for various reasons,” Weintraub said. “It’s the NFL, parity rules.”
Part of the Falcons summary reads, “2009: That bar is set much higher, and the team is weighted down by almost certain regression.”
Here’s how they see the Falcons coming back to the pack:
THE DECLINE IN HEALTH: “The more statistical things that we’ve gone through point to injuries. The Falcons were a very healthy team last year. They were fifth-best in terms of our stats: man-games-missed by their starters.
Here's what an ESPY looks like.
“We found that there is no correlation from year-to-year. Teams that stay healthy for one year don’t necessarily stay healthy the next year. In fact, teams will go backwards in that category.
“If you just have a couple of injuries to a couple of linemen, that could be overcome. Now, if Matt Ryan goes down in the second weak of the season, then the whole thing falls apart. There is a great deal of fortune involved.”
Falcons fans have been there. Check 1999, injuries to Jamal “Jam” Anderson not Jamaal “Sackmaster” Anderson and to Chris Chandler the year after going 14-2 and reaching the Super Bowl. That team went 5-11.
THE SCHEDULE: The Falcons don’t have the AFC West and the NFC Central to kick around. They have the AFC East and NFC East.
“The schedule is significantly more difficult,” Weintraub said.
THE CURSE OF 370: The Outsiders have come up with this “Curse of 370” notion.
Here’s how that works, only one running back – Eric Dickerson – has managed to stare down the Curse.
“Any running back who carries 370 times or more in a single season, there is a significant dropoff or injury the next season,” Weintraub said. “Eric Dickerson is the only guy who’s beat that.”
Eric Dickerson
Micheal Turner had 394 carries for 1,742 yards in 17 games last season.
“You are talking about a very high probability that he’s going to experience a significant (dropoff) this year,” Weintraub said. “Now, it would behoove the Falcons greatly to ease off on his carries. They have Jerious Norwood, whom we love as a back.
“If they can establish a real combination back there, that could definitely offset some of the projected decline in Turner’s numbers.”
The great Dickerson went for 1,808 yards on 390 carries in 1983. He followed that up with 2,105 yards on 379 carries in 1984.
In 1988, Dickerson had 388 carries for 1,659 yards and in 1989 he had 1,311 yards on 314 carries.
Sadly, he was worn out at age 29. By the time he got to the Falcons in 1993, Dickerson could only muster 91 yards on 26 carries.
THE X- FACTOR: The Outsiders don’t know what to do with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Tony and October Gonzalez
“We’ve never really had a projection to account for adding a hall of fame tight end, when your biggest need is tight end,” Weintraub said. “It’s obviously a plus, assuming he stays healthy and stays at the level he’s been at.
“He’s also defied all kinds of logic and projections that we’ve done. Our numbers have said they he was going to fall off for the last three years and he hasn’t. That’s a testimony to what a great all-time great player that he is.”
CAN RYAN WIN SHOOT OUTS?: The Outsiders ranks Ryan’s rookie season as the finest of any quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
“They may have to beat teams 35-31 every week,” Weintraub said. “That’s not a sustainable way to go to the playoffs. Now, it can be done, but I think they’ll need a better plan of attack.”
THE DEFENSE: In their regression analysis, more than 100 variables were looked at for each team. They had to consider the ensuing upheaval with replacing five starters on the defense.
“These guys could step up and play lights out,” Weintraub said. “Stephen Nicholas could turn out to be a Pro Bowl linebacker, we’ll see. But the trend over the last 15 years with teams putting (five or more) starters who have played so little into their starting defense, doesn’t bode well.”
CAVEAT: They still have to play the games.
“We projected the Falcons not to be good last year,” Weintraub said. “But (Matt Ryan) significantly out performed the trends. Surely, that can happen again. We certainly acknowledge that there are times when players step up and become superstars.”
IN SUMMATION: A lot has to happen for the Falcons to end that 43-year streak of never posting back-to-back winning seasons.
“Overall, they have a lot of trends, anchoring them and weighing them back to the pack this year,” Weintraub said. “Right now the numbers say they are going to take a step back.”
You can get the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 off their website: www.footballoutsiders.com and print-on-demand copies from Amazon.com in late July.
D.LED’S UNOFFICIAL/BOOTLEG DEPTH CHART
MISS KERI BABY: Falcons need to line up Decatur's Keri Hilson to do the National Anthem to open the season.
Before we get to the depth chart, here are three campers to keep an eye on:
Rashad Bobino, Linebacker, 5-11, 230: Was a big thumper at middle linebacker for the Texas Longhorns. Made the Big 12 team three times. Check out his pro day workout.
Ryan Stanchek, Guard, 6-3, 305: Was a four-year starter at West Virginia. Was all-Big East in 2006 and 2008. Played left tackle in college. Got snubbed by the coaches in the all-conference voting last season.
Thomas Johnson, Defensive tackle, 6-2, 305: His name keeps popping up. Has been with three teams since coming out of Middle Tennessee in 2005. He hasn’t been able to stick with Dallas, Houston or the New York Jets. He made three starts with Houston in 2006.
THE DEPTH CHART
QUARTERBACK: Starter — Matt Ryan. Backups – 2. Chris Redman, 3. D.J. Shockley, and 4. John Parker Wilson.
RUNNING BACK: Starters — Michael Turner and Ovie Mughelli. Backups – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Jason Snelling, 3. Thomas Brown and 4. Verron Haynes.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Starters – Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Backups – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran, 3. Eric Weems, 4. Troy Bergeron, 5. Chandler Williams, 6. Aaron Kelly, 7. Darren Mougey and 8. Bradon Godfrey.
TIGHT ENDS: Starter – Tony Gonzalez. Backups – 1. Ben Hartsock, 2. Justin Peelle, 3. Keith Zinger and 4. Jason Rader.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters – LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Todd McClure, RG Harvey Dahl, RT Tyson Clabo. Backups – Center – 1. Brett Romberg, 2. Ben Wilkerson.
Guards – 1. Jeremy Newberry, 2. Romberg, 3. Wilkerson, 4. Ryan Stanchek, 5. Jose Valez.
Tackles – 1. Will Svitek, 2. Quinn Ojinnaka, 3. Garrent Reynolds, 4. Michael Butterworth.
Falcons All-Pro defensive end John Abraham.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters – RDE John Abraham, RT Peria Jerry, LT Jonathan Babineaux, LDE Chauncey Davis.
Backups DE – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Kroy Biermann, 3. Lawrence Sidbury, 4. Willie Evans and 5. Maurice Lucas. DT – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Trey Lewis, 3. Jason Jefferson, 4. Thomas Johnson, 5. Vance Walker, 6. Tywain Myles
LINEBACKERS: Starters – WLB Michael Peterson, MLB Curtis Lofton, SLB Stephen Nicholas. Backups: 1. Coy Wire, 2. Edmond Miles, 3. Tony Gilbert, 4. Spencer Adkins, 5. Robert James, and 6. Rashad Bobino.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: LCB – Chris Owens, FS – Erik Coleman, SS – William Moore, RCB – Chris Houston. Backups – CB – 1. Chevis Jackson, 2. Brent Grimes, 3. William Middleton, 4. Von Hutchins, 5. David Irons (injured), 6. Glenn Sharpe, 7. Tony Tiller. S – 1. Thomas DeCoud, 2. Jamaal Fudge, 3. Antoine Harris, 4. Eric Brock.
SPECIAL TEAMS – KR – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Thomas Brown. PR – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran. P – Michael Koenen. PK Jason Elam. LS – Mike Schneck.
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1,184 comments Add your comment
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
5:52 pm
JJ, I remember we hosted the division playoffs in 1980 at the old ACFS. Yes, I’m that old..LOL. Rolland Lawrence, one of the best CBs we have had in my opinion in a Falcon uniform, was coming in quick for a hit on Tony Dorsett. Newhouse laid the brother out with the block and Dorsett scampered for about 20 yards before being caught by Buddy Curry. I bet that Rolland still has headaches from that.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
5:54 pm
I feel ya, Barry.
JJ
July 21st, 2009
5:55 pm
D3 and I have gone back and forth over RB3, he likes brown then snelling and I’m just the opposite; however, I did not see much of brown last yr. So I guess the obvious question, esp. with norwood contract in limbo, if JN goes (hope not), who replaces? D3, I think brown is closer to norwood and snelling is closer to turner. Outstanding insight..I know…lol
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
5:57 pm
JJ, we will continue the flashbacks until someone come along with another topic. Buddy Curry, now there was an inside linebacker. Can you imagine the press that dude would have gotten if ESPN, which was an upstart network then, was what it is now.
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:00 pm
SW. I was at that game. I loved that open, real grass stadium. My yankee friends ,who now live in our beautifull state-”hey GA is full”, never fail to jab at us falcons having a indoor stadium. And I agree with them!
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:01 pm
Class act that man!
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:02 pm
JJ, I’m with you. Snelling is a keeper in my opinion. He is a very good blocker, has great hands, and is a warrior. Here is a little fact that most may not know because he is such a private guy. The dude is has epilepsy but has not let the ailment slow his role. He just keeps on keeping on.
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:03 pm
Too tall jones, hollywood henderson and man, the raiders. Some of my fav. players of all time. Golden richards and that db they had, made ronnie lott look like a girl!
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:04 pm
Ohhhh I love the Dome don’t get me wrong. But I will be on happy dude when we get back outside. In Georgia, I’m sorry, football is meant to be played outside.
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:05 pm
Stadler, my man stadler. I’m a south-paw so I loved kenny, side-arm throws!
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:07 pm
we will see it my friend…open air grass field in atl within 10yrs., maybee split-roof like dallas
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:08 pm
JJ, sad part about it is that the NFL did not keep stats on tackles when Curry played.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:11 pm
I agree. As I stated yesterday, I hope that AB sends a team to Tampa and uses Raymond James as a model for our future stadium.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:14 pm
Welcome to NLF Retro…with your host, SW and JJ. Coming at you live.
It’s all about the history of the game tonight…flashbacks, good times, players, favorite moments.
Chime in via the Cage or give us a call at 1-888-LUV-ATLF
JJ…take it away.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:15 pm
Oops..that should be NFL Retro…Hey, this is my first time being a talk show host..
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:17 pm
JJ, Stabler was a bad dude. But let’s come home for a minute. How darn good could Steve Bartkowksi have?
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:21 pm
Breaking news on NFL Retro…the AJC is confirming that Jeremy Newberry is retiring. JJ, your comments.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:26 pm
AS D3 would say, looks like the blog monster is attacking.
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:32 pm
For those of us growing up in the atl in the 70’s, we rooted for our birds, but we all had other teams we rooted for…we had too! Now most of us were broken down into 2 cat. – dallas / pittsburgh. I was a cowboy fan because of the cheerleaders, coach landry and my 10yr. old best friend in the neighborhood was a die hard pittsburgh fan. He had the last laugh! Then Dallas got that miracle bomb in our house against my birds…cheerleaders be damn–goodbye dallas! Then they humiliated coach landry and I have disliked them ever since.
Now, I turn it over to SW:
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:34 pm
thanks for the gramm. – staBler, staDler came later!lol
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:41 pm
Stabler was a bad dude. But let’s come home for a minute. How darn good could Steve Bartkowksi have?
He had billy white shoes, he had a great DL, the prob. was our pass d. was terrible. I also remember out Ol giving up a lot of sacks. So how good could steve b. b? Only as good as ranklin smith was willing to spend on his teammates!!!
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:47 pm
Yes, that ’80s team was special.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:48 pm
JJ and SW holding it down on NFL Retro live from the Cage!!
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:49 pm
Good Point there JJ. How would you rate Rankin Smith as an owner?
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:51 pm
Dude had deep pockets. I mean he sold Life of Georgia Insurance policies all over the state. I know my grandparents had a few of them. In your opinion, did he not have a true interest in the team?
Or am I wrong to try and compare him to AB?
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:55 pm
Blog monster is messing with me…Hope that JJ is keeping the flow moving.
WR
July 21st, 2009
6:57 pm
Is this the birdcage or the history channel,LOL. JJ, loved the GA is full post, I am for taking down the Georgia on my mind signs, and putting up no vacancy signs. I see you tried to ease a little uppercut in on my team, Watch out now!
Speaking of flashing back, I miss the old school running backs. Everyone talks about wearing down defenses and running backs that get stronger in the fourth quarter but none of the backs today could carry the jock straps of those backs back in the day. Sweetness,Dorsett,Harris,Andrews are some of the best of course, but you could go back to the less heralded backs like Otis Andersen from the Giants. He would pound on opponents, yes pound on opponents, it should be the reverse but that wasn’t the case, he will pound on them so much that by the fourth quarter they just didn’t want to try to tackle the man. Now teams get pounded and fatigued, back in the day it wasn’t fatigue it was the pain and suffering of trying to tackle those backs.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
6:59 pm
WR…welcome to NFL Retro. SW and my main man JJ holding it down while the rest of the Cage handles the evening commute. Chime in bro.
JJ
July 21st, 2009
6:59 pm
Do not think it woulb be fair to compare them..No dought, Rankin wanted to win, beleive he put his heart and sould into it. His pockets were not as deep as AB. I beleive the falcons never having back to vack winning season tore at his soul like a dementors kiss! I’m very glad his faily sold the team to AB, but as a long time suffering fan, I’d like to thank Mr. Rankin Smith for doing his best and bringing our birds home!
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:00 pm
JJ, I feel you. I too thank Mr. Smith on his insight and bringing our beloved Birds to the ATL. He is the father of major league sports in ATL.
JJ
July 21st, 2009
7:01 pm
sorry, when i type fast without looking at the keyboard, I really should spell-ck! only on 2nd stripe- i swear…
JJ
July 21st, 2009
7:03 pm
SW- the floor is yours, have to walk my son, yea he’s deformed, no thumbs and 4 legs to boot!
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:03 pm
So JJ, would you join me and supporting that we add Mr. Smith’s name to the Ring of Honor? WR?
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:04 pm
LOL…Alright..laters bro.
D3
July 21st, 2009
7:07 pm
Good Lord My Fellow ‘Cagers, are we approaching a record number of pages and posts? I’ll have to refer to some of the original ‘Cage members, but upwards of 700 posts and 8 pages only in 4 days? Wow, our Football forum is rocking well and strong. Let’s get to it……
JJ – Thank you for “keeping it real” on Jerious Norwood. He is one of the biggest game-breaking threats that plays in the NFL, but the fantasy that has grown to a degree in here lately suggests that he’s the next Walter Payton (ok, obviously I’m exaggerating a little). Norwood is a special athlete, but that has been many O’ games in his career that I have seen him totally disappear. When he’s on his game, he’s untouchable, but when he’s off; he’s really off. He doesn’t run very tough between the tackles and will easily fall down by a “shoestring” as you said if hit in the backfield. He’s the man, but let’s pause on Norwood being the best thing in football since the forward pass.
Seminole – As a UGA Dawg, let me be as objective as I can. Moreno (& Stafford for that matter) struck a side that just didn’t sit well with me. He blew it up his first year and was dominant and his ability and potential should go unmatched, but his and Stafford’s attitude is what many Dawg fans had an issue with. I’m being hypercritical of course here, but they were seen by many to be “mercenaries” of sort. You never got the feeling that UGA was special to them, in other words an SEC or National Championship never seemed to be the dream that it was to many. They both struck many fans as prima-donnas and gave the impresssion that UGA was simply a stepping stone on their way to “bigger and better” things. Moreno, in particular, struck me as an air of arrogance. All the dancing, grooving, and BS on the sidelines. Showed signs of an undisciplined football team. Last point: when asked what he thought about Georgia Tech, Moreno responded “Oh, its just another game to me, I don’t have a rivalry at all with them.” That always stuck a burr in my saddle. He was wearing a shirt of himself when he got drafted for godsake. Ok, sorry for going off on that tangent, but I felt I needed to say it. Ask jason and all other Dawg fans, but give me David Greene, DJ Shockley, or Musa Smith any day over more talented Stafford and Moreno. Whew, gotta take a xanex after that tirade.
JJ(2) – Good comparison. I want to keep both. Snelling a more inside tough runner and TBrown as a norwood type, but remember that pound-for-pound TBrown was one of the strongest players to EVER come through UGA and still holds weight lifting records.
Newberry Retiring – Someone broke it here in the ‘Cage earlier and it is in fact true. That was a quick stay as a Falcons lasting a whole 3 weeks. Well, the question is this: Do we look to keep and develop one of these undrafted rookies like Jose Valdez, Ryan Stanchek, or Michael Butterworth; or do we scan the waiver wire when camp starts? Newberry was slotted to backup Guard instead of center. There definitely is a little bit of hole there now and, as Seminole mentioned earlier, we are bone thin behind Sam Baker. Quinn Ojinnaka doesn’t appear to be the answer because they opted to resign 37 year old Wayne Gandy then use Ojinnaka when Baker got hurt. On one hand it sucks, but Newberry was 33 anyway, so this will be a good opportunity to develop someone younger. If anyone can do that, Coach Boudreau can.
More later……….
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:07 pm
JJ is walking the little one, WR is chilling, and I supposed to be doing a forecast. But we are cool in the Falcon Nation. NFL Retro. JJ and I have been flashing back on the good old days.
So Cage, tell me? JJ and I are there. Should the founding father of the Falcons, Mr. Rankin Smith, be honored in the Ring of Honor?
Live in the Cage…this is Falcon style, NFL Retro.
WR
July 21st, 2009
7:07 pm
Caller to NFL retro: Rankin was tight on the pockets when it came to the Falcons, if he had spent just a little more the team could have been sustainably good throughout the 80’s and early 90’s.
WR
July 21st, 2009
7:12 pm
I can see where Rankin’s pockets weren’t as deep as AB but at the same time I don’t think Rankin realized that in professional sports you have to spend money to make money. Just ask the Braves right now, and the hawks before the new ownership group took over.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:13 pm
D3, now that was some fire on the UGA pairing of Stafford and Moreno. Whew.
Caller from the ACC: I share that feeling on the pockets. I know Life of Georgia made a lot of cash in my part of the state. Better front office management would have helped too. Do you support ROH induction?
WR
July 21st, 2009
7:14 pm
He did give us the birds though, so that puts him in the ring of honor
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:15 pm
Another 15 minutes or so as the Cage family finalizes their evening commutes.
NFL Retro live from the Cage. SW holding it down with my man WR. JJ, my co-host is walking the little one. The boss, D3, popped in to make sure I was at work. LOL.
WR
July 21st, 2009
7:16 pm
Blank is approaching top billing in the Ring, but for now I think Turner has to head of the class, the man wanted a team that won and he got it.
WR
July 21st, 2009
7:17 pm
Seminole, man you are truly a fool, I can’t stop laughing on the D3 comment.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:17 pm
The carosel of coaches did not help us either under the Smith Regime. personally, the best two coaches under that regime were Leeman Bennett and Dan Reeves. Notice I said COACHES!! Reeves was not a good “GM.”
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:18 pm
WR, I got to keep the boss happy!! After all, this is his and DO-Led’s gig. I’m just a player in the squirrel nest. LOL.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:24 pm
NFL Retro…holding it down.
JJ, WR, and I have been reflecting on our beloved Birds and a few other players/teams. Tell me Cage, what would it mean to you to be called a Super Bowl Champion?
NFL Retro…SW holding down with WR and JJ.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:27 pm
Super Bowl Champion aspirations? Rankin Smith in the Ring of Honor? A new dome or an outdoor stadium. Its your world, Cage.
1-888-LUV-ATLF (Love ATLanta Falcons)
WR
July 21st, 2009
7:29 pm
It would mean that we finally get to parade wildly and drunkedly down peachtree, this city would go nuts if the birds pull off a superbowl victory. The high would carry over for months, we support the Braves, we support the Hawks, but this is a football state, no matter what the birds have been through we have continued our support, yes often at a distance, but we often kept at least one eye on the birds hoping for a miracle. Now back to you SW
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:32 pm
Agreed WR. I can easily see 200 to 250K on Peachtree.
Seminole Warrior
July 21st, 2009
7:33 pm
And imagine how a title would electrify the base. It could help across the board. Winning is contagious.