Falcons predicted to finish 7-9 by “Outsiders”
BLOGCATIONVILLE — Headed for that last blog-cation before the season starts. Needed to get a few things for you all to nimble on.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan won an ESPY for Best Breakthrough Athlete. Show airs at 9 p.m. Sunday.
Not everyone is predicting greatness for the Falcons in 2009.
The folks over at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, are predicting more doom and gloom. In their eyes, the streak will reach 44 seasons. There will be no playoffs and someone’s pet is probably going to die.
In the publications’ eight page analysis of the Falcons, Rob Weintraub, a local free lancer and TV production worker, points out that over the last 30 years, 17 teams have improved by seven games — including the Falcons and Miami last season — but only the 1998 Jets under Duane Charles Parcells (some folks call him Bill) have improved the next season.
Those other 14 teams, wins decrease by an average for four. That would put the Falcons at 7-9 in 2009.
“Every other team has come back to the pack for various reasons,” Weintraub said. “It’s the NFL, parity rules.”
Part of the Falcons summary reads, “2009: That bar is set much higher, and the team is weighted down by almost certain regression.”
Here’s how they see the Falcons coming back to the pack:
THE DECLINE IN HEALTH: “The more statistical things that we’ve gone through point to injuries. The Falcons were a very healthy team last year. They were fifth-best in terms of our stats: man-games-missed by their starters.
Here's what an ESPY looks like.
“We found that there is no correlation from year-to-year. Teams that stay healthy for one year don’t necessarily stay healthy the next year. In fact, teams will go backwards in that category.
“If you just have a couple of injuries to a couple of linemen, that could be overcome. Now, if Matt Ryan goes down in the second weak of the season, then the whole thing falls apart. There is a great deal of fortune involved.”
Falcons fans have been there. Check 1999, injuries to Jamal “Jam” Anderson not Jamaal “Sackmaster” Anderson and to Chris Chandler the year after going 14-2 and reaching the Super Bowl. That team went 5-11.
THE SCHEDULE: The Falcons don’t have the AFC West and the NFC Central to kick around. They have the AFC East and NFC East.
“The schedule is significantly more difficult,” Weintraub said.
THE CURSE OF 370: The Outsiders have come up with this “Curse of 370” notion.
Here’s how that works, only one running back – Eric Dickerson – has managed to stare down the Curse.
“Any running back who carries 370 times or more in a single season, there is a significant dropoff or injury the next season,” Weintraub said. “Eric Dickerson is the only guy who’s beat that.”
Eric Dickerson
Micheal Turner had 394 carries for 1,742 yards in 17 games last season.
“You are talking about a very high probability that he’s going to experience a significant (dropoff) this year,” Weintraub said. “Now, it would behoove the Falcons greatly to ease off on his carries. They have Jerious Norwood, whom we love as a back.
“If they can establish a real combination back there, that could definitely offset some of the projected decline in Turner’s numbers.”
The great Dickerson went for 1,808 yards on 390 carries in 1983. He followed that up with 2,105 yards on 379 carries in 1984.
In 1988, Dickerson had 388 carries for 1,659 yards and in 1989 he had 1,311 yards on 314 carries.
Sadly, he was worn out at age 29. By the time he got to the Falcons in 1993, Dickerson could only muster 91 yards on 26 carries.
THE X- FACTOR: The Outsiders don’t know what to do with the addition of tight end Tony Gonzalez.
Tony and October Gonzalez
“We’ve never really had a projection to account for adding a hall of fame tight end, when your biggest need is tight end,” Weintraub said. “It’s obviously a plus, assuming he stays healthy and stays at the level he’s been at.
“He’s also defied all kinds of logic and projections that we’ve done. Our numbers have said they he was going to fall off for the last three years and he hasn’t. That’s a testimony to what a great all-time great player that he is.”
CAN RYAN WIN SHOOT OUTS?: The Outsiders ranks Ryan’s rookie season as the finest of any quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
“They may have to beat teams 35-31 every week,” Weintraub said. “That’s not a sustainable way to go to the playoffs. Now, it can be done, but I think they’ll need a better plan of attack.”
THE DEFENSE: In their regression analysis, more than 100 variables were looked at for each team. They had to consider the ensuing upheaval with replacing five starters on the defense.
“These guys could step up and play lights out,” Weintraub said. “Stephen Nicholas could turn out to be a Pro Bowl linebacker, we’ll see. But the trend over the last 15 years with teams putting (five or more) starters who have played so little into their starting defense, doesn’t bode well.”
CAVEAT: They still have to play the games.
“We projected the Falcons not to be good last year,” Weintraub said. “But (Matt Ryan) significantly out performed the trends. Surely, that can happen again. We certainly acknowledge that there are times when players step up and become superstars.”
IN SUMMATION: A lot has to happen for the Falcons to end that 43-year streak of never posting back-to-back winning seasons.
“Overall, they have a lot of trends, anchoring them and weighing them back to the pack this year,” Weintraub said. “Right now the numbers say they are going to take a step back.”
You can get the Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 off their website: www.footballoutsiders.com and print-on-demand copies from Amazon.com in late July.
D.LED’S UNOFFICIAL/BOOTLEG DEPTH CHART
MISS KERI BABY: Falcons need to line up Decatur's Keri Hilson to do the National Anthem to open the season.
Before we get to the depth chart, here are three campers to keep an eye on:
Rashad Bobino, Linebacker, 5-11, 230: Was a big thumper at middle linebacker for the Texas Longhorns. Made the Big 12 team three times. Check out his pro day workout.
Ryan Stanchek, Guard, 6-3, 305: Was a four-year starter at West Virginia. Was all-Big East in 2006 and 2008. Played left tackle in college. Got snubbed by the coaches in the all-conference voting last season.
Thomas Johnson, Defensive tackle, 6-2, 305: His name keeps popping up. Has been with three teams since coming out of Middle Tennessee in 2005. He hasn’t been able to stick with Dallas, Houston or the New York Jets. He made three starts with Houston in 2006.
THE DEPTH CHART
QUARTERBACK: Starter — Matt Ryan. Backups – 2. Chris Redman, 3. D.J. Shockley, and 4. John Parker Wilson.
RUNNING BACK: Starters — Michael Turner and Ovie Mughelli. Backups – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Jason Snelling, 3. Thomas Brown and 4. Verron Haynes.
WIDE RECEIVERS: Starters – Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. Backups – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran, 3. Eric Weems, 4. Troy Bergeron, 5. Chandler Williams, 6. Aaron Kelly, 7. Darren Mougey and 8. Bradon Godfrey.
TIGHT ENDS: Starter – Tony Gonzalez. Backups – 1. Ben Hartsock, 2. Justin Peelle, 3. Keith Zinger and 4. Jason Rader.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Starters – LT Sam Baker, LG Justin Blalock, C Todd McClure, RG Harvey Dahl, RT Tyson Clabo. Backups – Center – 1. Brett Romberg, 2. Ben Wilkerson.
Guards – 1. Jeremy Newberry, 2. Romberg, 3. Wilkerson, 4. Ryan Stanchek, 5. Jose Valez.
Tackles – 1. Will Svitek, 2. Quinn Ojinnaka, 3. Garrent Reynolds, 4. Michael Butterworth.
Falcons All-Pro defensive end John Abraham.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Starters – RDE John Abraham, RT Peria Jerry, LT Jonathan Babineaux, LDE Chauncey Davis.
Backups DE – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Kroy Biermann, 3. Lawrence Sidbury, 4. Willie Evans and 5. Maurice Lucas. DT – 1. Jamaal Anderson, 2. Trey Lewis, 3. Jason Jefferson, 4. Thomas Johnson, 5. Vance Walker, 6. Tywain Myles
LINEBACKERS: Starters – WLB Michael Peterson, MLB Curtis Lofton, SLB Stephen Nicholas. Backups: 1. Coy Wire, 2. Edmond Miles, 3. Tony Gilbert, 4. Spencer Adkins, 5. Robert James, and 6. Rashad Bobino.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: LCB – Chris Owens, FS – Erik Coleman, SS – William Moore, RCB – Chris Houston. Backups – CB – 1. Chevis Jackson, 2. Brent Grimes, 3. William Middleton, 4. Von Hutchins, 5. David Irons (injured), 6. Glenn Sharpe, 7. Tony Tiller. S – 1. Thomas DeCoud, 2. Jamaal Fudge, 3. Antoine Harris, 4. Eric Brock.
SPECIAL TEAMS – KR – 1. Jerious Norwood, 2. Thomas Brown. PR – 1. Harry Douglas, 2. Brian Finneran. P – Michael Koenen. PK Jason Elam. LS – Mike Schneck.
The Countdown to Training Camp is winding down!
Tell us what you think about the site
Customer Care »
Vacation stops, manage subscriptions and more
AJC Services
Sections
Other Editions
Visitor Agreement | Privacy Statement
© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,184 comments Add your comment
Seminole Warrior
July 20th, 2009
5:14 pm
Walker, Lewis, Jerry, and Babs provide us with a solid DT rotation for years to come. No issues noted there.
jason
July 20th, 2009
5:19 pm
Seminole Warrior, That last post brings a question to mind. How many DTs will we carry? 4 or 5? I am on the fence because I think JAnderson can play DE/DT. And as you mentioned Walker, Lewis, Jerry, and Babs; they are our present and future. DO we really need to carry a Jordan Jefferson, or Morehead also?
Nookah
July 20th, 2009
5:32 pm
Guys, Anderson is not a bad player. In fact he is a productive player but the real issue with JA98 is that he was drafted 8th in the first round and that comes with a whole lot of expectations. However, I am with you WR, I think he will have a much better year. With the formidable push we should be able to generate inside, it will force the QB out of the pocket and allow our outside rush to do their thing. In fact if the QB’s choose to stay inside then they will be hurried more from the inside push. This could allow #98 to get his hands on more QB’s and even have more tackles this year (27 last year).
Don’t forget this is Jamaal’s 3rd year and will be his 2nd stable year. That ain’t no way for someone who is really just adjusting to the rudiments of the game. His football history should be examined closely and if you are objective you will see that his better days are ahead of him. The guy is only 23 years old and has a lot more to offer.
Apart from that we all know what a winning environment can do to players. It positively affects their attitude and work ethic and brings out the best in them. With the coaching staff we now have, I think he will be far more effective this year.
Go Falcons!!!!
Nuff respect everytime!!!!
Seminole Warrior
July 20th, 2009
5:33 pm
Jason, I think that all DTs except the big four (Babs, Jerry, Lewis, and Walker) will be released. Anderson flexibility will allow us to keep a “DT” without carrying one extra on the roster.
Seminole Warrior
July 20th, 2009
5:34 pm
Nookah, as far as Anderson goes, in the Sugar Bear I will trust. Davis and Biermann will be ready in case.
Seminole Warrior
July 20th, 2009
5:36 pm
Can a brother get a burger dropped by the forecast office? LOL.
Seminole Warrior
July 20th, 2009
5:44 pm
Jason, I did not forget your WLB question my brother. The man that I am locking in on as my focal point at the position is Mizzou’s Sean Weatherspoon. 6′ 2.5″, 240 lbs. A very gifted OLB. Mizzou ran some unique schemes last season but they are transitioning to a Tampa 2 scheme (yes, there I go again), so it will be interesting to see his production as a senior. Last season, 149 total tackles, five sacks, and three INTs.
jason
July 20th, 2009
5:47 pm
Seminole Warrior, Saw him in the Alamo Bowl last year. Tampa 2, the WLB usually plays in space anyway, covering RB/FB out of the backfield. I am sure that he can run. That seems to be the mo… Run fast with good striking ability. I was praying TD was going to draft Ellerbe (UGA)this year, but Ellerbe has the injury issues.
jason
July 20th, 2009
5:51 pm
Seminole Warrior, Also UGA has some LBs that can fly, but they are under the radar. Could be looking at some mid to late round picks to add depth. I see TD drafting at least 2 LBs, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him draft possibly 3.
I am curious to see what both James and Adkins brings in the preseason. Give them another and a full year in the system and our depth problems at LB might be solved.
jason
July 20th, 2009
5:53 pm
I am going to go ahead and say this. I want to be a GM for a day so I can draft and trade and sign FAs all from UGA; like I do on my PS2. LOL!!!
If I don’t have a UGA player at a position, I look at WR’s Jackets and see if there is a fit. I am all GEORGIA, all the time !!! 
stendec
July 20th, 2009
6:04 pm
Should they show Roddy “Butterfingers” White the money? Hell no. They should show him the door! Amen congregation. Sorry I am a bit behind. See Falcons at 12-4 this season!
jason
July 20th, 2009
6:08 pm
We are about to hit page 6. Guys is there a set date for the FF draft, yet?
MattyICE
July 20th, 2009
6:08 pm
Check Out Matt Ryan’s LA radio interview:
http://sportsradiointerviews.com/2009/07/20/rookie-of-the-year-matt-ryan-eager-for-encore-performance/
Seminole Warrior
July 20th, 2009
6:39 pm
Whew…forecast discussion done. I have a break for a while. No love on the burger so I will have to make due with the Healthy Choice I brought with me. LOL.
I would love to work with TD for a day as an assistant or a scout for a day. Man, can you imagine sitting down with the brother and discussing personnel? I would love it!!
Wonder if DO-Led has connections that can get the ‘Birds to consider the idea as a contest? Imagine the response from the CAGE alone!!
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
7:03 pm
Seminole Warrior,
That would be a great thing. Getting the chance to sit and talk football with T.D would be awesome(even thought I wouldn’t know what I was talking about…LOL). Can you imagine the response if a contest like that was set up?!?!
jason
July 20th, 2009
7:11 pm
My head would be spinning from all the info he would drop on me. Brain overload.
jason
July 20th, 2009
7:15 pm
D3, resend me that invite to FF. Send it here: ugawatson@satx.rr.com
I had the e-mail at work but it will do no good there. ESPN is FORBIDDEN per USAF. You can’t even go to a ESPN site.
jason
July 20th, 2009
7:17 pm
D3, this is what I recieved from ESPN once I logged on?
We’re Sorry
We have detected a problem with this invitation. Please request a new invitation from your League Manager.
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
7:27 pm
jason,
It would just be interesting just to see how him mind works. How he goes about determining if a player is a good fit for the system and the organization as a whole. I love what he said during the draft that he wasn’t going to draft a player just because the media think he should…I knew then that we had something extremely special in T.D
What so bad about ESPN? That’s one site that should be allow everywhere!!!
jason
July 20th, 2009
7:34 pm
CBrass, I know. I feel like I would be even more lost after I set and talked with him. He is that intelligent.
Oh, and ESPN apparently impedes the work progress. SSSSH, they don’t know about my blog, yet.
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
7:36 pm
jason,
I thought that was Facebook….LOL
jason
July 20th, 2009
7:41 pm
CBrass, That too. There are not that many sites allowed. Damn, military. They probably have “Big Brother” zoomed in on me now.
They actually think the AJC is a news source. I can get CNNSI. I guess because of the CNN.
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
7:53 pm
jason,
I’m still trying to get past the fact that ESPN is not allowed…I mean what is wrong with it but then again this is the military we’re talking about. What branch are you in? If you don’t mind me asking.
jason
July 20th, 2009
7:55 pm
CBrass, I don’t know. There are certain sites that you can’t go to. COMM in the USAF will not allow you to; like porn sites (No Duh). Then you have a site like ESPN, and I have no idea why. I go to FOX Sports, The Sporting News, etc. I honestly don’t have a clue.
BT
July 20th, 2009
7:59 pm
Good evening, fellow Cagers.
Sarah B. I use almost the same recipe on my burgers but with a slight variance with the grill verses the griddle.
The griddle (or pan) calls for a pat of butter for each patty.
Call me a weirdo, but I love grilling, BBQ and smoking meats.
Got some good recipes and always interested in learning more.
It`s a southern thang, I suppose?
Please hold the phone with all the JA98 praise and certainty he`s going to breakout.
I know he`s only 23 but so far he has shown me nothing at pass rush or stopping the run.
I am not trying to be a pessimist but facts are facts.
Here are some last seasons stats to back up my premise that the guy can`t play.
JA, 27 tackles, 24 solo and 3 assist with 2 sacks..that is with him starting with the majority of reps.
C. Davis, 38 tackles, 29 solo, 9 assist, 4 sacks and a fumble recovery, all with him playing only part time in the rotation.
Then you have Bierman who played way much less than JA98 or Davis and as a rookie came in with 21 tackles, 18 solo, 3 assist a 2 sacks.
I like Bierman, that`s showing me something considering his status.
What`s even more disturbing IMO, the 2 guys that led the team in tackles (Brooking and Coleman) were lined up behind him on the weak side.
Teams largely ran directly at JA98 we were ripped with close to a 5 YPC average overall.
Y`all to realize that is almost a half a yard more per carry than the Falcons gained on the ground and they led the NFL in rushing!
I don`t know what y`all are seeing in this guy but to me, he is what I have seen and the stats back me up.
A bust until he proves otherwise.
Davis and Bierman, they would be my #2 and 3 DE`s, until JA has shown me something.
If he needs more OJT?
Put him on the practice squad.
We don`t have any more patience or time to fool around with less than what`s expected.
BT
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:01 pm
USAF, AirDorce. I am going ARMY in DEC.
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:02 pm
Air Force OOPS
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
8:19 pm
BT,
Great argument. He does has alot to prove this year and if he doesn’t put up the numbers people will start to label him as a bust. From my understanding many of you think that the light should come on in year 3. Now is his time to show that he belongs.
BT
July 20th, 2009
8:23 pm
Jason, her is an idea.
Get yourself down to a public library or find a laptop and go wifi at the Krystal or many other locations and go ahead and register, unencumbered by Gooberment regulations.
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:25 pm
CBrass, True year three is when the light should come on. Now with JAnderson, it may take year four, but we need to see some progress being made. Smitty is and has shown confidence in him.
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:26 pm
BT, Dude I have a computer at home. That’s not what the conversation was about.
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
8:29 pm
jason,
I can see that considering that he’s so young. The may give him that extra year but he should at least double his sack total from last season. Having a coach like Smitty will benefit him in the long run.
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:33 pm
CBrass, Oh Yeah JAnderson will have to show significant improvement this year, especially ing the Sacks dept.
BT
July 20th, 2009
8:36 pm
CBrass, plenty of football knowledgeable people have already labeled JA98 a bust.
I realize about the third year and his relative young age.
Honestly, even if he doubles his production in 09?
He is still only mediocre and he is still a bust considering his draft status.
Do you realize Adrain Peterson was taken only one selection before JA98 and we lost that pick on a coin flip?
That`s one heck of a fall off between the 7th and 8th pick in the 06 draft.
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
8:37 pm
BT/jason,
Seems like it’s a slow night here so I have a question for you guys. What’s the different between the three linebacker positions?
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
8:38 pm
Wow no I didn’t realize that AP we taken just before him.
BT
July 20th, 2009
8:40 pm
Jason, I was just trying to help.
Did you get registered?
It`s seems you were having some issues.
I happened to be fairly decent on puters.
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:42 pm
CBrass, The MLB is your QB of the defense. He is usually your leading tackler because he plays behind the DTs. Your SLB (Strong side) plays over the TE. more of a pass rusher. WLD (Weak side) is more lighter and faster. He plays in space alot. Better in coverage. I am sure Unca’Bob and Coach Ken will have you starting at LB by the time they are done with you.
jason
July 20th, 2009
8:44 pm
BT, Not yeat. D3 is going to resend the e-mail to my home address. I should be up and running once he sends it. I am basicly locked out until I get a reinvite to the league.
BT
July 20th, 2009
8:50 pm
SAM is a term for strong side LB, he will line up on the side the TE`s dominantly line up.
That would be his basic cover responsibility and he should be very present on run support on his side.
MLB for middle line backer covers center field in the short passing game and should be very strong in run support.
WIL is short for weakside LB and he covers RB`s out of the backfield, he has a little more freedom to roam or blitz and he needs to be present on running downs on his side.
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
8:51 pm
jason,
That cleared up a lot. Thanks!!! Not sure if this is a stupid question or not but where does an Outside/Inside linebacker fit in all of this? And if is a offense is running a two TE set which TE does the middle LB line up againist? Sorry for all of the questions.
Sarah B
July 20th, 2009
9:01 pm
So SW your a meteorologist??? You may think most people don’t appreciate you guys but I for one am a complete weather geek. We were playing trivia at a bar lot long ago the question came up ‘what are the verticle bar’s on a weather map called?’ I was the only one there, in the whole bar, that got isobars lol. Because I know that when the isobars are to close together that is what makes it windy. They just looked at me. I said don’t you watch the weather channel? And they just looked at me. I always thought I should have been a meterologist. But alas I’m not.
I give JA one more year to do something…
BT can’t really go wrong with that burger mix. Keeps them nice and moist. Don’t need anything fancy. 9.5 days until TC!! And I’m on board for Taco Mac after too.
Sarah B
July 20th, 2009
9:11 pm
Nothing wrong with questions CBreeze. The Falcons usually run a training camp for Women in Oct. in Oct. because it benefits Breast Cancer. I went the first year and already knew mot of the answers to the questions. It is $50 but you get player autographs at the beginning, then Q&A with coaches with 1/2 the group while the other half runs drills with former players and coaches. Then you switch. Then dinner and a glass of wine. I’ll go again if you want to. It was very cool.
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
9:15 pm
When is it? do You know what day it is? I’ll be extremely busy that month going to see my Dawgs play!!!
jason
July 20th, 2009
9:18 pm
CBras, BT just explained it. Actually a little better that i did.
BT
July 20th, 2009
8:50 pm
Reread that post above.
jason
July 20th, 2009
9:19 pm
CBras, I knew there was something about you that I liked…. Another DAWG in the Cage.
BT
July 20th, 2009
9:19 pm
Sarah B. Got a grilled chicken marinade ya can`t go wrong with also.
It`s simple, mix 3 equal parts of 3 sauces.
Soy, teryiaki and worcestershire.
Then add liberal dashes of hot sause, to taste.
Soak the chicken parts in the mix for at least half and hour.
Then grill them.
Sometimes, the simple things are actually best.
CBrass
July 20th, 2009
9:24 pm
jason,
No doubt. I just hope the defense will actually tackle this season!!!
Seminole Warrior
July 20th, 2009
9:31 pm
Back with you my brothers and sisters! Yes, Sarah, been doing it now for almost 25 years and I love it.
CBrass, hope that you got all the info you desired on the LB positions. BT and Jason breaking it down with skill…love it.
BT
July 20th, 2009
9:32 pm
Jason, I think CBrass wanted to know what to do if it`s a Jumbo set, with 2 TE`s?
Then you either move the Strong safety up into a SILB position or (if time) and situation allows bring in an extra LB so that you are in an effective 4-4-3.