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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,547 comments Add your comment
chipl1960
January 11th, 2013
1:05 pm
Thanks ken. Went right over my head, but, I read who posted it…so, there you have it.
Robert
January 11th, 2013
1:05 pm
Justin Upton has three years left on his contract -and is owed right around $38 million
I would say this first- $13 mil a year for ages 25,26, and 27 out of a guy who has a career adjusted OPS of 117 is far far better than $15 million a year for ages 28-32 out of a guy with a career adjusted OPS of 105 (that would be BJ Upton)
Now, how much is it worth to give up to go get him?
Start with one sure thing you are giving up – Venters – an All-Star caliber lefty reliever who should be entering his prime (age 28 in 2013)- arb eligible, but wont cost a fortune
That’s a lot But you’re getting a lot.- Now throw in some lottery tickets. I say do the trade
George_George
January 11th, 2013
1:05 pm
DS1
January 11th, 2013
12:53 pm
A deal for Upton would mean the Braves are “all in” on the Upton family potential. Kinda risky proposition for TWO brothers at a high salary.
Justin has had two almost 900 OPS seasons. And two almost 800’s. (not counting his first 2 partial seasons)
As for Gattis, he is ALL potential. And very affordable potential.
So what are the odds that BOTH BJ and Justin perform well (850+) consistently? I’d say looking at their track records, you really don’t want to go that route unless you had a lot of extra money laying around.
Or you had some inside information.
Just my two cents worth.
******************************
AGREED
Geno
January 11th, 2013
1:10 pm
I agree with ncbravesfan90’s post at 1:01.
DS1
January 11th, 2013
1:14 pm
I agree with all my posts!
DAP
January 11th, 2013
1:14 pm
ncbravesfan So now we’re saying that Justin Upton is a risky proposition but Gattis is all potential? Come on now.
keep in mind that upton will get paid like 30x more than gattis. i think that ups the risk factor for upton, dont you?
Brava
January 11th, 2013
1:16 pm
Next year, Robert. Make your plans to be there early.
Actually, I think HOF security should be alerted to that possibility.
Enquiring Minds Want To Know
January 11th, 2013
1:21 pm
Unless Wren can steal someone at the last minute, I think we’re good to go. And the reason I say that is that the strength of the team in other places affords Wren the luxury of taking a flyer on a young player. It’s not going to matter that much who is left field, because the Braves fortunes are going to depend on some other things. Namely:
1. Do Heyward and Freeman progress?
2. Does Uggla return to form?
3. Does McCann return to form?
4. Is Simmons the offensive player we think he is?
5. Are Medlen and Minor as good as they showed last year?
If the answers to these questions are positive, then either Gattis in LF or Francisco at 3B is not crucial. If they are negative, then JU’s contribution will only be as a financial mill stone arpund the team’s neck.
We’re worrying about the wrong things.
ncbravesfan90
January 11th, 2013
1:24 pm
“keep in mind that upton will get paid like 30x more than gattis. i think that ups the risk factor for upton, dont you?”
No not at all, not for a proven MLB player with All-Star and MVP potential and the money and prospects the Braves have available to spend on him. What’s risky is holding onto all the prospects in hopes that they turn out the way they were envisioned. If Teheran is anything short of an ace, and when I say ace I mean Verlander, Kershaw, Strasburg type ace, then he will be considered a bust considering we could have had anyone we wanted for him 2 years ago.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
1:27 pm
ncscoots, I don’t know if money is the primary reason and never said it was. I do suspect it’s a significant reason.
And I’m not sure what you mean by “before dollars were an issue.” Dollars are always an issue, to some degree or another. Teams are always trying to get as much performance value as they can for as low a dollar value as they can.
Bat Masterson
January 11th, 2013
1:35 pm
Actually, I think HOF security should be alerted to that possibility. _ Brava
Robert
January 11th, 2013
1:47 pm
“Actually, I think HOF security should be alerted to that possibility”
No worries. I’ve visited the Baseball HOF several times, but if they induct Cox, I’d never set foot in the building again.
rammerjammer
January 11th, 2013
1:50 pm
Here’s what I’d like Frank to do:
1. Sign Prado to an extension.
2. Nothing else.
Let’s see how Gattis and Fran look in the spring; see how McCann looks when he returns; get some Gwinnett ABs for Bethancourt; more innings for Julio..
Just too many variables right now. Got to see ‘em play…THEN we’ll know what to do.
Bat Masterson
January 11th, 2013
1:50 pm
It’s not if, Robert, mearly when. You know that, you can’t help but know it.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
1:51 pm
If Teheran is anything short of an ace, and when I say ace I mean Verlander, Kershaw, Strasburg type ace, then he will be considered a bust considering we could have had anyone we wanted for him 2 years ago.
There is no way this is true. Anyone we wanted for him? No way.
DS1
January 11th, 2013
1:52 pm
Robert
Then you’d better get on up there this year for one more visit.
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
1:53 pm
No not at all, not for a proven MLB player with All-Star and MVP potential
I think this fairly states the division among posters here. If one views Upton 2 as a top-tier, perennial All-Star, MVP-type player, then one could reasonably decide that there is little in the Braves’ minor leagues worth keeping over such an acquisition. If one views him as a good player who may or may not be a difference-maker, then one tends to think that the Gattis potential plus the potential of the retained players may have more value.
But Enquiring Minds makes the real point, i.e., it’s what the seven everyday guys already on the squad do that will determine the success of the season. The performance of whoever starts in LF will merely affect the margin of error.
TheOnlyBravesFan
January 11th, 2013
1:55 pm
get some Gwinnett ABs for Bethancourt
I’d rather he be at Mississippi and Gattis catching in AAA
DS1
January 11th, 2013
1:58 pm
With all the risk considered, if you could get Justin for a reasonable haul, I’d do the deal. Only problem with having them both on the same team is if you ever decided to drop/trade/not sign one of them, how would it affect the other?
For me a reasonable haul would be the likes of Ahmed, Delgado, Spruill and Avilan.
Wes Jorga
January 11th, 2013
2:03 pm
Right now the Braves are operating from a place of strength. They can go to ST and see if they have a realistic option for 3B/LF. They have 9 million in surplus to obtain a LF/3B. They have prospects to trade and would be comfortable trading one of the middle MLB relievers. Why rush ? Arizona has no realistic deals on the table and have now soured their relationship with JU. Let them come to the Braves. A JU signing could jeopardize the ability to sign some of our top players to long term contracts and would deplete our farm system. After living through the after effects of Mike Hampton I would like to see some caution on FW’s part.
Hugo Z Hackenbush
January 11th, 2013
2:05 pm
And that’s why I said you’d be in bed with the Karda–uh, the Uptons for the next three seasons if you sign JU. It’s a weird situation that no other team bidding for his services has to consider. I say it should make him less costly for the Braves to get.
jfp
January 11th, 2013
2:08 pm
DS1, one thing to consider is that our outfield could very easily cost us nearly 40 million. That’s a lot for 3 players on a mid market team.
Nick
January 11th, 2013
2:11 pm
If the Mets get Upton, that might push ATL to 4th place.
Murph
January 11th, 2013
2:11 pm
Justin Upton is a proven commodity. Gattis, Francisco, Graham, Spruill, Teheran, Delgado, Ahmed, Bethancourt… are not.
I’d rather see the team go all-in and worry about 3 years down the road 2 years down the road. Better to try and win than to try not to lose.
Enquiring Minds Want To Know
January 11th, 2013
2:15 pm
Murph, you go all in for a Barry Bonds or a Greg Maddux, not the likes of Justin Upton. He’s just not the player you wish he was.
Mako
January 11th, 2013
2:19 pm
Gattis is not equal to J. Upton. It amazing how people are trashing Upton but continue to hype up Gattis’ and his “potential.” Please
I honestly don’t even care anymore. The Braves can go ahead into next season with Gattis/Francisco/Johnson as starters, but when they move crashes and burns, Wren’s going to be in a bad spot because then, he really is going to have to make a desperation move and other GMs are going to be waiting to raep him.
Rick C
January 11th, 2013
2:21 pm
“Gattis is not equal to J. Upton.”
Who said he was?
RC
January 11th, 2013
2:24 pm
If the Mets get Upton, that might push ATL to 4th place.
Good point. Not like they’ll see any negative effects from trading away last year’s NL Cy Young winner.
Murph
January 11th, 2013
2:28 pm
Murph, you go all in for a Barry Bonds or a Greg Maddux, not the likes of Justin Upton. He’s just not the player you wish he was.
Expound, please.
RC
January 11th, 2013
2:31 pm
Gattis is not equal to J. Upton. It amazing how people are trashing Upton but continue to hype up Gattis’ and his “potential.” Please
It is funny how we all view “potential”. One thing that’s pretty incredible to think about: Upton is actually a year YOUNGER than Gattis. If the plan is to “develop guys with potential”, I think it’s pretty clear that Upton is the superior choice.
Murph
January 11th, 2013
2:34 pm
Murph, you go all in for a Barry Bonds or a Greg Maddux, not the likes of Justin Upton. He’s just not the player you wish he was.
And keep in mind, going all-in has to be in scale with what you have to offer. The Braves version of all-in can only net them so much due to the dearth of talent in the minors. A Braves all-in looks much different than it would with a team that has decent players in the minors.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
2:36 pm
Here’s something we often fail to focus on when we look at a player’s splits: Where did he play his road games and how did he do in specific parks.
Justin Upton has obviously played most of his games at Chase Field.
Upton has played most of his road games in Dodger Stadium, which is pitcher-friendly. He’s hit .231/.280/.408 at Dodger StadiumSecond is AT&T Park, not exactly a right-handed hitter’s paradise, not to mention he’s faced a pretty good pitching staff there for most of his career. Third is Coors, where he’s posted solid stats, .347 OBP and .440 SLG. Fifth is Petco where his stats are surprisingly impressive: .291/.354/.547. Those are all the parks where he has over 78 plate appearances. Most of those are pitcher-friendly.
The pitchers he’s faced most often in his career: 1) Matt Cain, 2) Tim Lincecum, 3) Chad Billingsley, 4) Kevin Correia, 5) Barry Zito.
Chase Field is hitter-friendly but it’s not so hard to see why Justin Upton, a player who has spent his career in the NL West, doesn’t have similar road and home numbers.
Now I’m not saying there is a lot of evidence to suggest he’s a star in the making or something. I’m just saying the road numbers may be a little deceiving and, once we go a little deeper, there is some indication his road numbers shouldn’t be quite as big a concern as it seems on the surface.
We can get there by looking at his OPS+, which is 117 for his career through age 25, which is solid. But if you go through all the information about where he’s played and the pitchers he’s faced most often, you’ll see why he has the 117 OPS+, for those who may not completely trust that OPS+ does a decent job of telling the whole story about his offensive production.
TennesseePaul
January 11th, 2013
2:38 pm
Let’s just hope he was a late bloomer.
“Late bloomer” How can you make that statement? The guy may turn out to be as awful as Payne proclaims he’ll be, but I have a hard time using the phrase “late bloomer” for a guy who has only been in the game for 2+ years (222 games total). Mejia, on the other hand, seems a more appropriate player to whom to affix the term “late bloomer”.
Enquiring Minds Want To Know
January 11th, 2013
2:39 pm
OK Murph. Going “all in” is a high risk, high reward bet. The Braves went “all in” when they traded for Mark Texeira, figuring that he was an impact player of such ability there was a chance that he and Chipper would be an unbeatable tandem. It didn’t work out, but it was not an unreasonable bet because Texeira was a special player.
JU is not a special player. We can take Kevin Towers’ word for it.
TheOnlyBravesFan
January 11th, 2013
2:39 pm
Again, read this… http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-upton-is-not-a-park-effect-mirage/
TheOnlyBravesFan
January 11th, 2013
2:41 pm
later guys
DAP
January 11th, 2013
2:43 pm
ncbravesfan90 What’s risky is holding onto all the prospects in hopes that they turn out the way they were envisioned.
but if the prospects dont turn out, you still have the $14mil to spend. if the $14mil player bombs, not only do you suck, youre stuck. if the prospect bombs…you suck, but you arent stuck. just my opinion.
jfp
January 11th, 2013
2:47 pm
Shaun, I understand how you feel about the splits, but I would be willing to bet that Justin’s averages don’t change much where ever he ends up. There are other factors that could take his averages up or down faster than which ball park he is playing at. Where he bats in the lineup, behind whom, in front of whom? How does the other team pitch ours? Teams were putting up lefties against us more often because they knew that was a weakness of ours. How well he gets along with the coaches, can he relate to the hitting coaches and how well he fits in on the team. I believe this would impact him more than what his previous stats were and in the worst case scenario would put up similar numbers to his past.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
2:47 pm
It is funny how we all view “potential”. One thing that’s pretty incredible to think about: Upton is actually a year YOUNGER than Gattis. If the plan is to “develop guys with potential”, I think it’s pretty clear that Upton is the superior choice.
Good points here. We tend to overrate potential when it comes to prospects in some cases and underrate potential when it comes to young players who have been in the majors a while. Regardless of age, some of us might get tired of hearing about potential because a player has been in the majors for a few years. But sometimes we factor in the level at which a player has played in ways we shouldn’t when considering potential. Gattis doesn’t necessarily have more potential than a player like Upton just because Gattis has played at lower levels. We seem to look too much at level and don’t focus enough on age, when trying to do our own projections and guesses.
One could look at it as Gattis hasn’t reached his potential because he hasn’t had the experience, and there is something to that. But I also think there is something to the fact that Upton has been working on his craft against major league pitching and hasn’t had any time away from the game.
bravesfaninnc
January 11th, 2013
2:54 pm
Everyone keeps harping on Upton’s road splits. However, have you seen his numbers at Turner Field, where he would be playing half his games? Pretty darn good. Not too mention his good numbers at Philly and at NY. His numbers at Washington are lousy, but with their pitching, who’s going to hit there anyway? Marlins Park is too small of a sample size.
The Braves could choose to go with a Prado/Francisco/Johnson revolving door at 3B and LF, or they could go with Prado and 3B and Gattis at LF. And that would be serviceable.
Play a guy like James Loney at 1B and it’s serviceable. Stick Albert Pujols there, and suddenly, it’s a difference.
That’s my view of Upton vs all of the other options, and that’s why I think the Braves would be foolish to pass up on this opportunity.
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
2:54 pm
What’s risky is holding onto all the prospects in hopes that they turn out the way they were envisioned.
No FO thinks every prospect is going to bloom; just the opposite. They know most of them will go bust. You ameliorate that foregone result by creating minor league depth, which allows the option of delaying irrevocable decisions on which players will boom or bust.
Once you decide to include that kid in a trade, you’ve made the decision on his future in your org: none. When kids still have potential, making that decision too soon means you may have traded the one out of twenty that might actually help you.
axeman
January 11th, 2013
2:54 pm
I would trade Teheran or Delgado or both for him and our other SS prospect and Gattis, Bethancourt, etc…Patrick
totally ridiculous and not gonna happen sheeeesh
jfp
January 11th, 2013
2:56 pm
It’s hard to look at Gattis’ potential the same way you would a 20 year old, but after being away from baseball for 4 years, it could have created some urgency that you might not see in someone younger. He hasn’t failed yet and could have already met his potential. But because of the lack of history, you won’t be able to make a good assessment of him until spring training. If he adapts and adjusts the same way he has in the minors, then you will have a lot more to consider.
MikeInFl
January 11th, 2013
2:56 pm
Any thoughts on J Upton’s durability? I know he played much of last season with a thumb problem (which as we all know, can affect performance). But also seen reports that he has a potentially chronic shoulder condition; and I know he’s had some hamstring issues too.
Since becoming a regular, he’s played 108, 138, 133, 159 and 150 games (apparently many of those 150 playing hurt).
I don’t know much more about it than a quick google search revealed … just seems like a shaky health history for a young player.
Rick C
January 11th, 2013
2:59 pm
bravesfaninnc, Upton ain’t no Pujols.
TennesseePaul
January 11th, 2013
2:59 pm
Under the revamped system, a new team that signs an elite free agent will be required to surrender both a draft pick and a chunk of its allotted draft bonus pool money
Hadn’t heard this before. Is this due to losing the first rounder, i.e. highest possible signing amount, and not being allowed to maintain that money in the “pool”? Sucks even more now if so. It isn’t just draft that was lost, but that much more money for signing drafted players.
No pressure BJ.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
2:59 pm
Shaun, I understand how you feel about the splits, but I would be willing to bet that Justin’s averages don’t change much where ever he ends up.
Depends on to which “averages” you are referring. I don’t think his OPS+ and other park- and league-adjusted numbers will change drastically in ways we don’t expect. But I do think his basic average, on-base and slugging numbers may change, if he’s traded, depending on where he plays, because it’s quite possible that he’ll go to a division where his road games are in lesser pitcher-friendly environments.
Very good Fangraphs piece that basically says what I did in my 2:36 comment: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/justin-upton-is-not-a-park-effect-mirage/
“Whatever you do, though, don’t just look at a player’s road stats and assume that it’s a window into his real talent level, with the difference between his home and road stats being a mirage of the park he played in. That’s simply not how home/road splits work.”
axeman
January 11th, 2013
3:00 pm
Everyone keeps harping on Upton’s road splits. However, have you seen his numbers at Turner Field, where he would be playing half his games? BFinNC
That is too small a sample size to mean anything
jfp
January 11th, 2013
3:04 pm
Shaun, I was pretty much considering Atlanta moreso than anywhere else.
chipl1960
January 11th, 2013
3:04 pm
Medlen on XM within next hour.
Murph
January 11th, 2013
3:05 pm
but if the prospects dont turn out, you still have the $14mil to spend.
True, but spending money isn’t what I would call Frank Wren’s strong suit. It’s not his fault, he doesn’t get much practice.
What will $14mil buy next offseason? What about the one after that? My guess is less and less. We saw it this time around… I mean, look at the deals Pagan and Ross got! Insane!
The Braves are not going to be very competitive, if at all, on the floor of the free agent stock market. They just don’t have the funds that most other teams who are going after the same players have. It is what it is.
Look at the players that the team has under control for the next 3 years. There’s a lot of good talent at the MLB level there. Enough to be in the mix of the playoff hunt. Now add in a Justin Upton. No need to search next season for an OF. Brings up some issues as far as extending Prado and/or McCann, yes, but the team can figure that out later.
This team is soooo close to being able to compete with the Nats. So close. Come next September, when they are 5 games out and preparing for Play-In Game 2.0, are we going to be ok with that or are we going to be lamenting that we let Upton slip away because we wanted to hold on to a bunch of prospects that may or may not pan out in the next 2-5 years?
I don’t want the team to return to the days of the last-place 80’s Braves, but a limited budget and trade chips that nobody wants or that we’re unwilling to part with… the team is slowly plodding in that direction.
This is their best chance to compete and really make a run. In 3 years the team is going to look way, way different than it does now because of the economics that are taking hold. Mega TV deals are going to price the Braves right out of the mix.
Go get Upton. Put the best possible team on the field NOW. Worry about tomorrow tomorrow.
bravesfaninnc
January 11th, 2013
3:06 pm
Rick C – go back and re-read my post. You totally missed the point.
axeman
January 11th, 2013
3:06 pm
Whatever you do, though, don’t just look at a player’s road stats and assume that it’s a window into his real talent level, with the difference between his home and road stats being a mirage of the park he played in. That’s simply not how home/road splits work.”
not perfectly, but it gives a fair indication over the years that I have paid attention to it,
there is no better way to judge how a player will perform in a new park if he is coming from an extreme park
he will likely do some better than his road splits after he settles in because home parks usually have better stats for players,
the biggest thing in my opinion is to be aware that he will probably not be putting up the same counting numbers that he did in an extreme home park
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
3:08 pm
Everyone keeps harping on Upton’s road splits. However, have you seen his numbers at Turner Field, where he would be playing half his games? Pretty darn good. Not too mention his good numbers at Philly and at NY. His numbers at Washington are lousy, but with their pitching, who’s going to hit there anyway? Marlins Park is too small of a sample size.
Most of his numbers in any one specific park has the issue of small sample size. But if we look at his numbers in all pitcher-friendly park, all hitter-friendly parks and all neutral parks, I think we would see why his career OPS+ comes out to 117 and not an OPS+ that goes along with his .250/.325/.406 road numbers.
ncbravesfan90
January 11th, 2013
3:08 pm
If this was a typical offseason for the Braves with minimal money to available to spend, then im fine with letting Gattis play LF, but surprise, the Braves have a lot of money to spend this offseason and have about 12-15 mil left to spend. You just can’t have Chipper and Bourn leave and a questionable McCann and sign just BJ Upton and insert Gattis into LF, unless you truly are settling for middle of the pack in MLB. There is money to spend and prospects to deal this offseason, and if I was a betting man Wren will make a move for a LF, and we will send Delgado+ or Teheran+ in return.
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
3:11 pm
I will admit that the thought of the two brothers on the same team has given me some pause, beyond Upton 2’s offensive performance/potential/whatever. Had the two brothers been the very soul of moderation previously, maybe I wouldn’t give it a second thought. But they haven’t, and, rightly or not, I can’t help but consider the possibility that some situation could occur for one in which the other or both could go mushroom-cloud.
It wouldn’t be my determining factor, I think, but the team would be foolish to ignore it altogether.
axeman
January 11th, 2013
3:13 pm
Except that what weoriginally thought of as a lot of money has turned out to be less than expected relatively because so many mid-level free agents got such surprisingly high contracts
Rick C
January 11th, 2013
3:18 pm
bravesfaninnc, I got your point just fine.
jfp
January 11th, 2013
3:18 pm
scoots, agreed about the concern of having 2 brothers on the same team. By the way Justin has handled this situation with Towers speaks volumes for him. Not many people would be quiet if they were in the same position. Most would be demanding a trade.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
3:22 pm
axeman, the issue is that not all road splits are equal across the board. Some players play most of their road games in mostly hitter-friendly or mostly pitcher-friendly parks. So you’re not always getting a sampling of more neutral environments by looking at road numbers.
Upton is a good case study in this. His home park is hitter-friendly. The parks in which he’s played most of his road games are pitcher-friendly. So looking at his road numbers are not as telling as looking at park adjusted numbers, like OPS+ or wRC+.
bravesfaninnc
January 11th, 2013
3:23 pm
Rick C – obviously you didn’t. I was in no way comparing Upton to Pujols.
Bat Masterson
January 11th, 2013
3:29 pm
The blog may be a mess but the comment section looks really good in the new mobile format. No comment box though.
axeman
January 11th, 2013
3:29 pm
Upton is a good case study in this. His home park is hitter-friendly. The parks in which he’s played most of his road games are pitcher-friendly. So looking at his road numbers are not as telling as looking at park adjusted numbers, like OPS+ or wRC+. @Shaun
it is still the best approximation available, there is a reason that his production is so extreme dude, and it is not just that players usually hit better at home. If you are he will put up the same counting numbers in Atlanta that he does in Arizona over the long term you are probably going to be way off
Rick C
January 11th, 2013
3:31 pm
bravesfaninnc, no but your implication is that Upton would be a big difference maker over Gattis, as would Pujols over Loney. My counterpoint is that adding Pujols is a much more signification addition than adding Upton, and the potential cost in prospects and salary for Upton may not be worth the difference he may provide over our internal options.
axeman
January 11th, 2013
3:35 pm
I’ll take Upton, but not in a TEX type trade, meaning numbers and quality of players dealt, I know that he has three years left
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
3:35 pm
the way Justin has handled this situation with Towers speaks volumes for him
I hate to say it, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable with Bobby handling the situation of the two brothers playing together. With the team as young as it is, Chipper gone, McCann maybe playing out the string, and Fredo at the helm, I wonder if there is a clubhouse presence that could forestall any potential Upton problems.
I think there are a number of guys in there with plenty of leadership quotient, don’t get me wrong, but it’s a transitional year for that kind of thing. There’s no god-like figure yet, LOL. You know the type, the ones who don’t have to say a word, just give you that look.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
3:40 pm
axeman, actually the best approximation of a player’s true talent level is something like OPS+ or wRC+ or something that is park- and league-adjusted; or just looking at a player’s performance in each park, one-by-one. Again, if you just look at road numbers, you don’t get the whole story because a player could have played a significant number of his road games in environments that favor hitters or favor pitchers, and therefore you are not getting a true representation of what a player did in neutral environments. Road splits are not always neutral environments.
axeman
January 11th, 2013
3:47 pm
actually the best approximation of a player’s true talent level is something like OPS+ or wRC+ or something that is park- and league-adjusted;
that is ridiculous , the individual park numbers one by one are all too small a sample size to be very reliable,
using OPS+ is fine but then you have to translate that into what it amounts to in the new home park, which will give you about the same thing as the away numbers alone will give you, at least it will point you in the right direction.
Since no matter what the stats are they will not assure that is what will occur in any given time, what we are looking for is a ballpark number, no need for anything more exact since it is not guaranteed to happen anyway
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
3:49 pm
I’ve never thought much about this before until now but the NL West is a weird place to play in that there aren’t really neutral parks in that division. or parks that are all that close to neutral. I’m guessing this makes it tough to evaluate players who have played most of their careers in the NL West. I wonder if there are inherit biases that front offices have to overcome when evaluating players who’ve played a significant number of games in the NL West.
Murph
January 11th, 2013
3:54 pm
I’ll take Upton, but not in a TEX type trade, meaning numbers and quality of players dealt, I know that he has three years left
The Braves don’t have a Tex type package to send for Upton. Even if they send their top 5 prospects, they’re still falling way short of what they sent to the Rangers.
So…. it’s ok. They can deal ‘em all and not have to worry about any kind of Tex Deal type fallout.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
3:55 pm
using OPS+ is fine but then you have to translate that into what it amounts to in the new home park, which will give you about the same thing as the away numbers alone will give you, at least it will point you in the right direction.
axeman, OPS+ adjusts for park and league. There is no need for adjusting anything because adjustments are already built in. So if a player basically holds the same skill level, his OPS+ will basically be the same, no matter where he plays most of his games. The purpose of OPS+ and similar stats is so that you don’t have to translate much of anything.
kenhotlanta
January 11th, 2013
3:55 pm
ncscoots @ 3:35: I totally agree, that could turn out to be a huge problem.
RC
January 11th, 2013
3:57 pm
Completely agree Murph. The talent level of the Braves minor league system at the time of the Tex trade was light years ahead of where it is now. I’d go as far as to say that the Braves don’t currently have a single prospect in their minor league system that is as good as any of the top 3 guys in the Tex trade were (Saltalamacchia, Feliz, and Andrus).
VaBravesFan
January 11th, 2013
3:58 pm
Damn, was hoping to come home from work and see the Braves had traded for Justin.
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
4:00 pm
Even if they send their top 5 prospects, they’re still falling way short of what they sent to the Rangers.
The problem with that is that the team had as-good-or-better players either in the system or already at the ML level for the group in the Teixeira deal. They don’t have that kind of depth now, and should not deal their very top kids for pretty much anybody.
If they can make a deal which allows them to both acquire the player and keeps the kids likely to help them both near- and long-term, make the deal. Otherwise, probably best to pass.
Roy Hobbs
January 11th, 2013
4:00 pm
I had heard the braves have 8 to 9 million to spend. If they really have 12 to 15 million left, bourne makes much more sense than J Upton. He is a better fit for the lineup, as he can leadoff. He is a great defender, a solid guy in the clubhouse, and he does not cost 3 to 5 of our best prospects.
Spend the money on Bourne. Best OF in baseball, and a beautiful lineup top to bottom.
Bat Masterson
January 11th, 2013
4:02 pm
@BatMasterson……
World traveler pic.twitter.com/04UkwitX
axeman
January 11th, 2013
4:02 pm
axeman, OPS+ adjusts for park and league. There is no need for adjusting
come on Shaun keep up, you have to adjust to get approximate numbers which are what most people on most blogs are mopst familiar with. Saying that he will have a 117 OPS+ means nothing to them, they want to have an idea of what his counting numbers will be. what does an OPS+ of 117 usually compute to at Turner Fielf is what is the most understandable to compare to what his previous numbers were. Very few here care about wat the OPS+ number is by itself
RC
January 11th, 2013
4:03 pm
the way Justin has handled this situation with Towers speaks volumes for him
How has Justin handled the situation with Towers? I haven’t heard any quotes about him being unhappy or complaining to the media. The only tangible piece of evidence is that when Towers traded him to Seattle, he used his NTC of 4-teams to block the trade….because Seattle was one of the 4 teams he said he DIDN’T want to be traded to. For a guy who is scheduled to hit free agency in what is likely to be the peak of his career, I wouldn’t want to spend 3 years in a park that drastically suppresses offensive performance either. Which is why he, you know, asked for a no-trade clause! To enforce that show no more “bad character” than to enforce that the team pay you every 2 weeks. It’s in the contract, which both sides agreed to.
axeman
January 11th, 2013
4:04 pm
Obviously Murph, I meant relatively. don’t give up the farm system for him because he is not worth doing that for
jfp
January 11th, 2013
4:04 pm
RC, wasn’t Matt Harrison also a part of that trade?
scoots, Prado could very well be the leader of the club house. Strong work ethic, liked by everyone and appears to set a great example.
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
4:05 pm
RC, I think that poster was actually complimenting Upton 2 for his lack of restraint, not berating him for being a bad actor.
Bat Masterson
January 11th, 2013
4:05 pm
Bat Masterson @BatMasterson…..
World traveler pic.twitter.com/04UkwitX
Lew
January 11th, 2013
4:07 pm
Well, there are proven commodities and then there are proven commodities. I suppose it would depend on which Justin Upton we traded for.
If we traded for the JUpton who put up numbers like he did in 09 and 11 – .289-.300 BA, .368 OBP, .530 SLG with 31 HR and 30-39 2B, he MIGHT be the difference between the WC and the Division Title.
However, if we traded for the 10 and 12 versions that put up a .273-280 BA, .355 OBP, .435 SLG with 17 HR and 25 or so 2B, then I don’t see him as being worth the almost $40 mil we’d have to pay him and the players he would cost and would just as soon see what we have with those already on hand.
axeman
January 11th, 2013
4:07 pm
that poster was saying that Justin has handled it well, not poorly, I think RC
Bat Masterson
January 11th, 2013
4:07 pm
Hum ….. I wonder why that link does not work
jfp
January 11th, 2013
4:08 pm
RC, was simply saying he has shown a professional attitude and that it was a positive. Most others would be demanding a trade.
RC
January 11th, 2013
4:10 pm
RC, wasn’t Matt Harrison also a part of that trade?
He was. But my argument was that the Braves current farm system has nobody that was as good a prospect as the top 3 guys….I think there are a couple of prospects in the system who are as highly regarded as Harrison was at the time of the trade.
Murph
January 11th, 2013
4:10 pm
They don’t have that kind of depth now, and should not deal their very top kids for pretty much anybody.
I see what you’re saying, but…. how many of the proposed prospects are likely to contribute to the MLB team at a high level within the next 3 years? Impossible to predict, but it’s safe to say that not many, if any, of them will be all-stars anytime soon.
I guess my stance comes from a feeling that I have that the Braves need to do everything they can to compete and compete NOW or they will completely miss the boat. It’s almost a certainty that they will lose some stars to free agency down the road, and it’s almost just as certain that they won’t be able to replace them with similar level players due to budget constraints.
I’d rather risk the prospects and be ultra-competitive now than hold the prospects and be kinda competitive in 3 years, sorta competitive in 5 years, and not competitive at all in 7 years.
Not many teams make the playoffs. The Braves have shown that they have a team capable of doing that. Now the issue is whether they have the team that it’s going to take to advance in the playoffs. This team is so close… so freakin’ close… they need to get over the hump. Losing Chipper and Bourn and replacing them with Upton doesn’t get them any closer. Adding the 2nd Upton, who could possibly be had where a Stanton or other impact player cannot… well, like I’ve been saying, I’d rather they try and maybe fail than not try and almost certainly fail.
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
4:11 pm
Prado could very well be the leader of the club house. Strong work ethic, liked by everyone and appears to set a great example.
You kinda make my point.
If we have to think about who might be a clubhouse presence, then maybe they don’t have one.
Again, I’m not saying that there aren’t leaders in that clubhouse; too many guys who play the game the right way for that to be true. I’m really talking about that guy who commands respect when you walk in the door, whether you’ve ever met him or played with him before; the guy you heed when he speaks, even if he’s calling you a no-talent, no-hustle, no-swing, no-glove waste-of-pine while reminding you that “we don’t do that here”.
VaBravesFan
January 11th, 2013
4:17 pm
I always seen this offseason as the best time to go all in. Our farm system is already pretty bad but we actually have enough to still get a really good player and have the financial ability as well. Already committed 75 million to BJ Upton as well….. Go all in.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
4:20 pm
axeman, a 117 OPS+ means for his career Upton’s OPS adjusted for league and parks was 17 percent better than league average. There is no need to make any adjustments after that. The adjustments are already built in to the calculation. In fact that’s the whole point of such calculation, so you don’t have to make additional adjustments. Whether people care about his OPS+ or not, it is what it is, that his OPS was around 17 percent better than league-average after adjusting for league and park, through his age 24 season. You do understand that the whole purpose of stats like OPS+ and wRC+ is so that you don’t have to make your own park adjustments, right?
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
4:23 pm
Again, I’m not saying that there aren’t leaders in that clubhouse; too many guys who play the game the right way for that to be true.
Guys don’t make it to the majors by playing the game the wrong way.
jfp
January 11th, 2013
4:23 pm
Agreed, but nobody knew if Chipper would step up when Maddox, Glavine and Smoltz left. Most of the time you have the silent leaders that let the vocal ones do their thing(kind of out of respect). I believe Prado understands his role and will be vocal when necessary. You have very good and strong points and understand your concerns. They were mine as well at first, but remembered that since you have a solid organization, they will move on(and so will we) and continue to be successful.
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
4:25 pm
I’d rather risk the prospects and be ultra-competitive now than hold the prospects and be kinda competitive in 3 years, sorta competitive in 5 years, and not competitive at all in 7 years.
So, your point is that the team will be unable to draft any future players with any talent at all? That’s a surprising notion, considering the number of home-grown above-average players on what has to be one of the youngest teams in the league. It seems to me that you’re saying that, despite what the org has done in the past to draft and develop young talent, you think they will never, never, never be able to do so again.
jfp
January 11th, 2013
4:26 pm
Shaun,”Guys don’t make it to the majors by playing the game the wrong way.”
Can’t say that is 100% true. Most don’t stay but some do.
ncscoots
January 11th, 2013
4:26 pm
Guys don’t make it to the majors by playing the game the wrong way.
I didn’t expect you to understand the topic, Shaun.
jfp
January 11th, 2013
4:30 pm
scoots, sometimes it’s hard to argue if you understand a point. So, if you twist it a little, you can write a thesis on it and everyone will understand it much better.
Shaun
January 11th, 2013
4:31 pm
Playing the game the wrong way? What do players run the bases backwards or something and still make it to the majors? I think the guys who play the game the wrong way probably don’t get far after the first couple of weeks of little league.
Robert
January 11th, 2013
4:31 pm
“Justin Upton is a proven commodity. Gattis, Francisco, Graham, Spruill, Teheran, Delgado, Ahmed, Bethancourt… are not.
I’d rather see the team go all-in and worry about 3 years down the road 2 years down the road. Better to try and win than to try not to lose”
VERY well said