8:35 pm December 18, 2012, by David O'Brien
December 24th, 20121:51 pm
I’m putting it out there right now…. the Phillies as is (and as they likely will be) aren’t winning more than 75 games. Who knows, the Mets may win more than them!
December 24th, 20121:54 pm
McCann is 28. He will be 29 on 2/20/13 Hard to believe.
December 24th, 20121:59 pm
Halladay 22-4 haha, Cliff Lee ain’t hitting 20 wins either. Heck, Hamels may not. Your offense still sukks, bullpen is just okay. Howard, Utley, and Young on the infield, not real good. Missing Ruiz early, and have no good OF outside of evere, and he isn’t even good. What’s his career SLG, like .330?
Gimme a friggin break. Go back to the Philthadelphia Phillthies blog please.
December 24th, 20122:01 pm
Trying to judge objectively, the Phillies are a tough team to figure for next year. They will have Uttley and Howard for the full year, but are they still the players they were 2 years ago. The key seems to be the condition of Halliday. Will he be recovered from the injuries that plagued him last year or is he in decline. They have lost Blanton and Worley from the back of their rotation and if Halliday is nothing more than the pitcher we saw last year, then that starting rotation is mediocre after Hamels and Lee. Lannan is not as good as Worley (except when he faces the Braves). The bullpen is better, but the core of Uttley, Howard, and Rollins is another year older. They could still challenge for a playoff spot or continue to decline.
December 24th, 20122:02 pm
bf, michael young is very good and was a great signing. Great hitter, plus defender and as versatile as prado. That said, he’s their only good pickup
December 24th, 20122:07 pm
Young is cooked imo. May hit for a .260+ average, but has no SLG at all. Not a high OBP guy.
He’s 36, just posted a .682, Texas was going to limit his ABs…. there was a reason for that.
December 24th, 20122:17 pm
A very merry Trollmas to one and all!
December 24th, 20122:19 pm
phat last year holliday had arm trouble guess who this year hamels and that phat comntract
December 24th, 20122:20 pm
December 24th, 20122:21 pm
phat go backand read the archives i told everyone roys days were not gonna be good before his sorry pitching started
December 24th, 20122:23 pm
Phat Santa we have a bet here about your age. Most say you are 11-12 years old. I have $5.00 riding on you are 16 years old. Please help me win the bet
December 24th, 20122:24 pm
i doubt you get 6 wins between roy and cole
December 24th, 20122:25 pm
and lees just about washed up too
December 24th, 20122:26 pm
Although I do not post too often, I would like to wish the regulars (Lew, DS1, TOBF, richbrave, brava, key largo, DOB and anyone I failed to mention), a Merry Christmas. You have all given me a great deal of enertainment and thoughts about how to improve the favorite team of ours. Thank You!
UgglaRollins (Youth and Defense Prevails)
Prado>Young (Not even close)
McCann>Ruiz (If healthy)
Left Field is Even basically
Starting Pitching the Phillies have the Edge, but any injuries or decline will hurt a ton while Braves have youth looking to take positive steps.
Braves easily have the better bullpen.
Your team wanted Revere,C.Ross,Span,many others but your broke azz team couldn’t afford them…
The Braves are cheap and couldn’t offer anything to anyone. But the Phillies offered contracts to EVERYONE and NO ONE signed, HA!
Rollins better than Simmons at SS
Hey phillies troll. Enjoy reid’s last game in town? Heh!
Everyone in Redskins Nation hopes he comes back after a jeff lurie brain-fart.
December 24th, 20122:27 pm
UgglaRollins (Youth and defense)
December 24th, 20122:28 pm
See where you predicted the Braves would win less than 82 games this coming season. I predicted they would 89 in 2012 and was close.
What was your prediction for the Braves again in 2012?
For some reason the blog isn’t allowing me to compare Uggla to Utley or Simmons to Rollins.
December 24th, 20122:29 pm
December 24th, 20122:30 pm
December 24th, 20122:31 pm
Young will hit .300 25 100 all day long.
“Phat Santa In Philly’s Comedy Central Christmas Special”
Phat Santa In Philly
December 24th, 2012
“…..Wake up ignant Braves fans…”
If that isn’t the pot calling the kettle black!
Brantley was a -7 centerfielder last season , he was really bad in 2010, the rest of the years are about the same as last season.. He is a + in left field most seasons Jason
You too Joey!
Bring the Phils down a bit, and I agree. Mets may pass the Phils for 3rd place.
Phils- Cooked and done… not competing for the next 2-3 years. Shoulda traded Hamels.
December 24th, 20122:33 pm
Thank you and Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you too.
December 24th, 20122:34 pm
Young will hit .300 25 100 all day long
Yea, .300 SLG and OBP… 25 BB, 100Ks.
Peace man, and thanx.
December 24th, 20122:35 pm
and lees just about washed up too</em
December 24th, 20122:36 pm
Wishing you sustained improving health, and a long life. Best Wishes to you and yours this Holiday Season.
And a Day of Rain
December 24th, 20122:38 pm
Fat Philly says this:
Braves will go 75-107. Phillies will go 107-75.
Dumb bugger can’t even seem to add…
December 24th, 20122:40 pm
Merry Christmas to all.
December 24th, 20122:42 pm
so……now we play 182, not 162. When did that happen?
December 24th, 20122:43 pm
Right now, Philly doesn’t look like much. Lee and Hamels should get them some wins. But, the in-field looks like it could be scary bad and the outfield … yikes!
Halladay’s injury is a little spooky. If he rebounds, Phils might not be too bad. If he stinks, …
It’s a good thing that the Marlins dumped their payroll this year and the Mets last year. The bottom of the NL East looks like it could give the AL Central a run for badness.
December 24th, 20122:44 pm
‘Course, there’s still time for Philly to make some moves to patch up their holes. Michael Bourn is waiting for a call, after all.
SOUTH OF THE BORDER
closed for the season
All others December 30.
No games scheduled today
December 24th, 20122:46 pm
Young, Rollins, Utley, Howard … all have seen their best years. Injuries, age, …. , this isn’t the team that won the WS and contended the following year.
December 24th, 20122:49 pm
I don’t understand the sentiment for trading for a “proven” veteran LF. Willingham and Gattis seem to be very similar players …jim
I think “proven” says it all. We know what Willingham will do in the bigs, we have no idea what Gattis will do. Some folks like risk, some folks like safe. Good points on both sides of that debate IMO
December 24th, 20122:51 pm
What’s the Phillies lineup right now?
Yuck all the way around. Pathetic. Only got 1 good hitter, Ruiz to be honest.
Braves are still a top 10 MLB team. They made it to the post season last year despite a horrible collapse offensively and despite Beachy being lost for the season.
MCCann will be health and Beachy will return at the all star game or there about. Having Maholm the whole season as well as having Meds in the rotation all season greatly improves our rotation. If Mike Minor picks up where he left off we will have one of the best rotations.
We will have a SS the entire year and one who actually hits the ball. Freeman and Heyward will continue to become legit stars n this league. As important as someone being productive in LF, is how Uggla rebounds this year. If Uggla rebounds this year and has a strong year, it may be enough to put the Braves over the top. Uggla will be key for the Braves this year
December 24th, 20122:52 pm
what exactly is a “modified” sign and trade and how does that make it legal?
December 24th, 20122:56 pm
though it seems that those amphetamines really helped out Chooch last year…. last season just doesn’t fit compared to all his others.
December 24th, 20123:09 pm
with a 85-95 million dollar payroll, the Braves have to take risks if they intend to be competetive on both a short and long-term basis. Willingham is precisely the kind of player that Gattis projects to be, but at a cost that makes extending players like Heyward and Freeman much more feasible. Also Gattis will be at his peak years over the extent of his time of service with the Braves, and Willingham will be on the downside. Every rookie is a risk — the same argument was being raised on the blog last year about aquiring a “proven” shortstop. The biggest concern over Gattis is his defense. A team with the Braves’ budget has to make the in-house option its preferred alternative whenever feasible.
December 24th, 20123:10 pm
We might be ranked a top 5 team but guess, the Nationals are better. So a wild card spot isn’t too good cause all it takes is 1 bad game and were done. We either win the division or win that 1 game bullshyt or the whole season is failure.
December 24th, 20123:13 pm
Looks possible that team’s may do a sign and trade combo to avoid the draft pick loss. Team’s with protected 1st rounders could sign an elite FA and only surrender a 2nd round pick and then trading that player to a team that would have lost it’s 1st round pick.
Something even crazier is a team like the Indians could sign Michael Bourn and only lose it’s 3rd round pick (2nd rounder lost signing Swisher) but have a trade in place while doing so. They’d likely receive better value than a would be 3rd round pick out of this deal.
So for example for fun, Wren could have called the Indians… We don’t wanna surrender out 1st round pick. We want yall to sign you BJ, and then we’ll trade for him. Then for example they agree to do it for Sean Gilmartin. Then we call BJ and say we have a sign and trade deal in place where Cleveland will sign you to our 5 year 75 million contract offer and then trade you to Atlanta.
So basically Cleveland would be trading there 2nd round pick for Sean Gilmartin, and the Braves would be trading Sean Gilmartin to keep there 1st round pick while getting the CFer they want. Crazy stuff….
December 24th, 20123:15 pm
“I’ve heard the same thing from everyone,” said Lowe. “I want to be a starter and feel I have a lot left in being a regular starter in a rotation and making my 30-plus starts. I can still do that. It’s frustrating to see other starters who have come off injuries get a shot, and I’ve never been hurt and can still help a team. I’m sure things will get going for me in January. I want to pitch. I’m nowhere near ready to retire.”
My advice would be to call the Rockies or Twins and lower all contract expectations and good luck.
December 24th, 20123:16 pm
I think unless Wren is bowled over by a great deal for a LF that we’ll go with Gattis.
If he isn’t ready by midseason, Wren has tons of $ to buy a mid-season acquisition.
December 24th, 20123:17 pm
Exactly VA… we may be a top 5 team, but with the Nats still ahead of us… tough luck. Gotta go win the lottery game sh%t.
December 24th, 20123:19 pm
tons of $$ to buy a LF… what, Frank’s gonna send the Giants or Brewers 5mil for the LF and then pay the guys salary still? I mean seriously… he’s gotta give up the prospect as well, and that’s not happening. And the Braves won’t be adding in a long-term LF who costs 15mil+ a season via trade… they won’t pay that much for a LF, cuz I mean, it’s not like having a good LF is important, and once again, Frank won’t pay the price in prospects for this “superstar”
December 24th, 20123:21 pm
as far as I know sign and trade has always been against the rules, you had to wait 6 months or so. how is what they are talking about any different than always? I must be missing something here.
December 24th, 20123:24 pm
Give me Willingham at 2/14 any day over taking a chance on Gattis. If he does not hit we fall behind until they find someone which is not going to be any easier then than it is now
December 24th, 20123:30 pm
“They made it to the post season last year despite a horrible collapse offensively and despite Beachy being lost for the season.”
Really,the 1-game WC playoff game is more pergatory, than post-season.It really is a play in game to the post-season.Let’s not over-romanticize the Braves ‘12 season.
December 24th, 20123:31 pm
December 24th, 20123:33 pm
I can not get my comment accepted
Like I said last night I am in the middle, torn between the two options.
December 24th, 20123:35 pm
I sort of like safe right now, but that could change later with a couple of Wild Turkey shots tonight making me all wild and daring again
December 24th, 20123:36 pm
December 24th, 20123:41 pm
Without Trumbo we’re looking at 75-80 wins.
December 24th, 20123:44 pm
Good point Nolie. Given what the Twins are likely asking for Willingham (assuming he’s even available), I’ll roll the dice with Gattis and keep our young pitching.
December 24th, 20123:46 pm
Well that’s a little dramatic.
Enquiring Minds Want to Know
Some folks like risk, some folks like safe. Good points on both sides of that debate IMO
Let’s do a little cost/benefit analysis here, and see if we can determine what exactly what the risk is.
If Gattis is given the LF job, and he doesn’t work out, what is the cost?
1. A $500K salary.
2. The fact that he will keep Wren from acquiring someone better.
3. If he fails, then Prado must play LF and Francisco plays every day at 3B.
Now, what is the benefit if he succeeds?
1. A $500K salaray, as opposed to a $10-15M multi-year guarantee to an older player (thank God Nick Swisher is off the board!).
2. If the pitching does falter, as some seriously fear, there is money to pay for a starting pitcher who might be acquired at the break.
3. You have control over a RH power bat at the very time when you need to extend the contracts of established players.
4. Francisco can be retained as a bench player, giving you protection against injury to Prado, Uggla, or Gattis (think about it).
5. You have the feel-good story to sell to your fans and the rest of the league- how the young man overcame his personal problems, persevered, etc, etc. Fear Strikes Out, indeed. And baseball could use a few feel-good stories about now.
Considering how little there is to choose from (even from the beginning), I think its a good risk. The downside doesn’t look too bad to me, and the upside could be spectacular. I said this once before, but I think it fits: If you want to get struck by lightening, sometimes you’ve got to stand in the rain.
December 24th, 20123:49 pm
gotta also count the ground lost as we scramble to find a LF, and since we would be more desperate, higher prices to pay. It’s easier to find a LF during the offseason
barry bonds says he is clean and ready
snark snark snark
December 24th, 20123:52 pm
but I can understand the idea to go with Gattis… I just wish that we’d try to upgrade the rotation now then, not wait til midseason
Halladay going 22-4? Seriously might want to tell your GM that. Amaro Jr. was on XM talking about how they hoped that he would be”85% this year”. You’ll be lucky if his arm doesn’t fall off.
December 24th, 20123:53 pm
Go drown your sorrows in eggnog if ya think it’s gonna be that bad next year.
the only good Bonds is a roided up Bonds…
December 24th, 20123:54 pm
I don’t get why we’re feeding this guy….
thats right halladay is on holiday and hamels aint far behind
December 24th, 20123:56 pm
blog hits thats why
December 24th, 20124:02 pm
EMWTK, the risk is also that Francisco does not work out either, and I have little faith in him actually less than in Gattis, and thus we fall steadily behind until we add someone.
Now you might not see both those as likely but it definitely is a risk
December 24th, 20124:08 pm
you could have got texiera and see how that works out
December 24th, 20124:11 pm
All, have a Merry Christmas, and DOB, and Carroll have a Merry Christmas too. Braves will be fine, and I’m looking forward to The White Bear…..How sad is this, Yankees looking at Matt Diaz. That’s comedy at the most! Braves have been linked to Scott Hairiston on trade rumors, but just a rumor. All be cool, and Talk tomorrow, and Peace my friends, and “Go!!!!!Braves!!!!!”
December 24th, 20124:13 pm
No – worst case scenario, you still have Prado playing full time at one position or you go to a Francisco/Prado/Johnson platoon. Juan may not be a succesful full time player, but as a platoon player hitting against RHP, he’ll be fine.
Worst comes to worse you either have a weak LFer or you end up with a platoon. No way you have two black holes out there and a very good possibility you have none. This is really a low risk situation. Think back to last year – when Prado played third, who was out in LF? Diaz and Constanza? Seriously, how much worse could Gattis/Johnson be?
December 24th, 20124:17 pm
Half Empty, you are correct. I think one of those two is likely to do well. Or well enough. But there is that risk that they both flop or get hurt. But isn’t that true of the whole team?
So what’s plan C? (drum roll please….) Jordan Schafer to the rescue! Yeah, I know, don’t hit me. But he is a much better defender than average, and he’s got to hit better than Paul Janish. There’s enough fire-power elsewhere on this team to get by. And if those other guys aren’t playing well, I don’t think it matters much who is in LF.
December 24th, 20124:18 pm
December 24th, 20124:19 pm
As I think about it, a Schafer/Johnson platoon is mo betta.
December 24th, 20124:23 pm
I bet they’d go with Constanza/Johnson before adding Schafer to the mix.
Schafer doesn’t need to sniff the 25man… I don’t even want him at Gwinnett. Cut him please Frankie.
Merry Christmas to all the Braves, but him.
December 24th, 20124:29 pm
Merry Christmas, good people of the Blog!
December 24th, 20124:30 pm
Lew, I’d take that bet. Schafer makes the team, Constanza doesn’t.
December 24th, 20124:32 pm
I hope not.
December 24th, 20124:33 pm
Of course, it may come down to how well Cunningham starts the season. Is he going to be at AAA this year?
December 24th, 20124:37 pm
I hope Cunningham gets a better shot to make the team than those 2 buffoons….
December 24th, 20124:38 pm
Yeah, Cunningham should be at Gwinnett. He hit .309, .364, .403 at AA, with 38 BB and only 51 K and 144 hits in 120 games with 23 2B and 63B.
Maybe he’s going to be the fall back position?
December 24th, 20124:39 pm
I think Cunningham will be in AAA this season at least to start if everybody is healthy
I think the outfielders will be Heyward,Upton, Gattis and Johnson
December 24th, 20124:41 pm
As The Outlier pointed out overnight, Schafer has always had tools, and if he’s ever going to be motivated its now. Carnac predicts he will be the surprise of the spring.
I would pigeonhole him as the first possible backup in front of Constanza and Schafer too Lew
December 24th, 20124:43 pm
I don’t much care how well he hits in the spring, I don’t trust Schafer too hold steady.
December 24th, 20124:44 pm
Half Empty – Yeah, he’s been under the radar, but given the current situation with LFers being available, you never know. The Braves view some of their prospects much more highly than some of the “experts” do.
And he did put up a solid AA season.
December 24th, 20124:45 pm
Schafer’s a bust… cooked. toast. A .606 OPS and 66 OPS+ after nearly 900 PAs? And couldn’t even hit in Houston? Plus the dude’s a cocky twit… useless.
Let him go. Cunningham in CF, Constanza in LF, and Durango or whoever in RF for Gwinnett. Schafer is unnecessary.
December 24th, 20124:47 pm
I would pigeonhole him (Cunningham) as the first possible backup in front of Constanza and Schafer too
Agreed. Kids got a good bat, and speed… they say he isn’t powerful enough for a corner, not good enough defensively for CF, but he should at least be a solid 4th OF. He’s got some contact ability.
The risk occurs if neither Gattis nor Francisco works out. Suppose they both do (define this to mean better than Uggla). Then what? If the strongest lineup had Gattis in LF, Francisco at 3B and Prado at 2B, would they sit Uggla?
December 24th, 20124:48 pm
Maybe Gattis can show him how to put down the reefer and start doing yoga. Increased performance through inner peace.
December 24th, 20124:50 pm
no they would not sit Uggla, at least for half a season IMO
Jim, I think one of Uggla’s arms would have to fly off before they’d do that.
With all the power in this lineup, he would’t need to hit like a ture corner outfielder. As a matter of fact, with Uggla’s numbers at second (still in the top third of NL 2B in power and OBP), you can get by with not much power from LF.
Cunningham should hit some doubles and triples and should be more than adequate defensively as a LFer, if not as a CFer.
December 24th, 20124:53 pm
Cunningham does have the advantage of being a switch-hitter, IIRC.
December 24th, 20124:55 pm
Yep, he’s a switch hitter.
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