2:37 pm December 10, 2012, by David O'Brien
December 15th, 20121:26 am
Gotta run to take a call. See you good folks later…
December 15th, 20121:27 am
Haggard is at the Classic Center in Athens Feb. 14th
December 15th, 20121:28 am
haggard, I love it being back to home where I grew up…spending lots of time with my old classmates spinning tall tales.
Have to go back to Habersham County tomorrow for the funeral of an Uncle, haven’t been up that way in a while.
Speaking of God’s country, we haven’t seen Ivan around lately either.
Hope you are well and listening to some good tunes.
December 15th, 20121:39 am
think about those last 56 seconds in King Larry’s voice.
December 15th, 20121:46 am
haggard and ken. total top ten posters.
sounds pretty light weight tough.
This is a reminder for the rest of you nighttime-stragglers and for the early-am crew.
McFann, thanks to her support here and with her other friends, has made it into the finals of her photo/knitting contest.
This time, no comments are necessary, just a check mark and a submit (Vote).
This is the site: http://mochimochiland.com/2012/12/mochimochi-photo-contest-12-the-big-vote/
McFann’s is, “Gnome Picnic”, not Gnomepaste. Just a check mark on that one and a click on Vote, and you’re finished. However, you’re only allowed to vote once.
McFann would also like to tell you that it’s OK if you vote for any of the others (however, I’LL break some of your bones if you do).
December 15th, 20121:53 am
Hello everyone! I’ve been doing some re-search on the trade talks, and can’t find anything again. Thats’s why you just have this feeling some thing will happen soon.
December 15th, 20121:59 am
I don’t know about you, but I like Ramiro pena signing. He’s 27 years old, and has potential, and I think he could have a good solid season.
December 15th, 20122:00 am
Pena, an’t played muc buthat was, because of all the Yankee high priced players. A new team, could make a differance?
December 15th, 20122:01 am
Yeah I know….. Take an easy on my typing…….
December 15th, 20122:03 am
You had BETTER take it easy on your typing, Ward
an’t played muc buthat is banned on several blogs in Central Africa.
December 15th, 20122:06 am
tom i entered a knome picnic vote. dont think it took.
December 15th, 20122:07 am
Why do you say that, uga?
December 15th, 20122:08 am
Ward did you vote?
December 15th, 20122:09 am
Actually, if I recall correctly, it should tell you that your vote has been submitted. And, if I recall correctly, all of the 11 pictures disappear.
December 15th, 20122:13 am
i voted twice. good look mcfaan.
December 15th, 20122:15 am
Good man, uga… however, only one vote will count. But I’m glad you gave it another shot to make sure.
The results will be given on Monday.
December 15th, 20122:19 am
John Leonard – Yes, I did, and compassionate conservative, and leave it as that! John, how’s it been? Tom I know, I meant to say An’t played much but that was…..
December 15th, 20122:21 am
Don’t worry, Ward, we can figure it out. We’re night-people, too, you know.
December 15th, 20122:22 am
Ward, Leonard was talking about voting for McFann, I believe.
December 15th, 20122:24 am
Thanks! I just need to proof read,before I post. Thinking about the Giants, playing the Falcons. Should be interesting…..
December 15th, 20122:25 am
Tom, what happened? Did I miss some thing?
December 15th, 20122:26 am
Talking about Mac, because I say we keep him, and make him a long term Brave.
They OWE you some PAYBACK, Ward
We’ve got the Bears… they owe us the same thing
December 15th, 20122:27 am
Tom, what happened? Did I miss some thing?
My 1:46, Ward
December 15th, 20122:31 am
I voted for the Tiny texas dude saying Hello…..
December 15th, 20122:34 am
Ward, I see broken bones in your future….
December 15th, 20122:43 am
December 15th, 20122:47 am
Ursula K. Le Guin
December 15th, 20122:53 am
Go mcfann !
I saw. I voted. I’m gone.
December 15th, 20122:56 am
one more in the mcfann collum
….who was that masked man?
December 15th, 20122:57 am
December 15th, 20123:01 am
n — chipontheroad
Ha,ha,ha That took me a several seconds to figure out.
December 15th, 20123:56 am
All, It’s been good! Hoping for the best with the Giants, but I’ll keep calm, Falocns can be tough…… Peace my friends…….High Ho!!!!! And Away……little humor.”Go!!!!!Braves!!!!!”
December 15th, 20123:59 am
Oh Crap!!! I miss typed Falcons…….At least I got the Giants right! Peace Out!
December 15th, 20124:42 am
MLB Trade Rumors @mlbtraderumors
BREAKING NEWS: The @Braves are doing absolutely nothing significant.
December 15th, 20126:36 am
Braves already did their significant thing
December 15th, 20128:03 am
And that’s all you get this off-season.
December 15th, 20128:06 am
With rumors of Nick Saban leaving Alabama to coach the Cleveland Browns after this season, that would put UGA grad Kirby Smart in position to replace Saban.
December 15th, 20128:13 am
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
word is, there is agreement on players in dickey trade with #jays. @MartinoNYDN suggests medicals being reviewed.
December 15th, 20128:18 am
Alderson trades for Zack Wheeler AND Travis d’Arnaud? That is spectacular, if you’re a Mets fan.
December 15th, 20128:23 am
To BRAVA and brien from yesterday’s tragic events relating to causes.
Thank you for pointing to the crux of the problem behind guns. PEOPLE and their mental health.
December 15th, 20128:26 am
I’m still depressed, and I noted on the several blogs I post on, other’s must have been too. Posts were way down. Saw that here also until last night.
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
d’Arnaud’s favorite player growing up in southern california was #mets great mike piazza (via wikipedia)
December 15th, 20128:27 am
I would not trade d’Arnaud if I was AA. Just a head scratcher, imo.
Jays still have lots of pitching in that system, though – and it seems like that is what they aren’t willing to give up – Sanchez, Norris, etc.
December 15th, 20128:30 am
Here are Bill James’ projections for our current 1-7:
Simmons .289 .351 .416 .767
Prado .291 .347 .425 .772
Heyward .272 .360 .483 .843
Upton .248 .329 .436 .765
Freeman .282 .358 .481 .839
Uggla .238 .341 .439 .780
McCann .266 .347 .467 .814
Upton and Uggla seemed on the low side to me. McCann and Freeman looked a little high.
I’m going to post in a second on interesting Bill James numbers for Johnson and Francisco.
KeyLargo, none of this is a repeat of anything, I swear.
December 15th, 20128:32 am
d’Amaud looks like a heck of a prospect but if Toronto can lock up Dickey up for a couple more years may be a trade worth it for them. Knuckleballers usually have longer careers and Dickey seems to be hitting his stride.
December 15th, 20128:36 am
Those Bill James numbers have been posted several times in the last week. But I won’t complain since this is your first, and hopefully only time.
December 15th, 20128:37 am
Toronto has already given up Marisnick, Nicolino and Hechevarria this year. d’Arnaud would be their 4th Top 10 prospect traded.
AA is done with “asset collecting” for sure.
December 15th, 20128:38 am
old man – now if you can figure out how to post those numbers in orderly columns, post away. I have never been able to keep the columns aligned though.
December 15th, 20128:39 am
MLB.com Prospect Watch is a pretty cool format for prospects. I don’t agree with the rankings Mayo puts together, but it’s a quick and easy way to go through the lists:
December 15th, 20128:44 am
Phillies close to signing Mike Adams, according to Tim Brown.
December 15th, 20128:45 am
Phillies signing Mike Adams to a two year deal with a vesting option. They really needed an 8th inning guy, so this should help their pen. Papelbon, Adams, Bastardo and some other powerful young arms.
December 15th, 20128:50 am
they still gonna be fighting w/ the Mets for 3rd place imo, unless they add some offense
December 15th, 20128:53 am
Here is Reed Johnson’s 2013 projection by Bill James:
.272 .325 .382 .707
Here is Johnson’s career line:
.284 .340 .411 .752
Here is 2012:
.290 .337 .398 .735
Not sure at all why he is projecting Johnson to have a down year in 2013.
Lee in S GA
December 15th, 20128:58 am
“Not sure at all why he is projecting Johnson to have a down year in 2013.”
sometimes playing with Atlanta a full season can have that effect on a hitter…probably something in the water
December 15th, 20129:04 am
Can’t there be a police officer at every single school in this country? Like, all the time?
December 15th, 20129:13 am
It is a crime to not have security at every school in the country. There’s no excuse in my mind. Hasnt there been enough of the killings the last decade or so?
December 15th, 20129:15 am
Just voted for McFann…hope FW is placing a vote or phone call for a LF
December 15th, 20129:16 am
[Skip to next post to avoid more of my nonsense on Juan]
Bill James has Juan Francisco with a pretty good looking line for 2013:
.272 .308 .502 .810
That’s a big 100 point jump in OPS over 2012. Interestingly, he has Juan playing in one less game (93 to 92) but with about 40 more plate appearances. Based on some educated guessing, this has Juan playing around 60 games at 3B instead of the 44 he had in 2012. And with fewer but still a decent number of pinch hit appearances. Last year, 29% of his plate appearances were pinch hitting. My guesswork has Bill James projecting those at about 15%, or cut in half as a proportion of total plate appearances.
I’m not sure Bill James has consciously done it, or his computer has done it, but he has a big OPS jump for Juan in 2013 when his pinch hitting duties are cut down. Maybe he’s been reading my posts here. Anyway, he verifies that the less you use Juan as a pinch hitter, the better his production becomes.
To figure his performance in a platoon–the starter and therefore never a pinch hitter in that situation–you can cut the percentage of pinch hits down to zero. I know that’s not a real number, but it would assess him in the platoon role.
And you also need to correct for hitting against righties only, which James does not do, and which my projected line in earlier posts has done. In a full time platoon, Juan’s games at 3B would go from Bill James’ 60 to 110, and the plate appearances at 3B would go from around 225 to 450. (These are my extrapolations from James’ numbers.) So again here is Bill James’ line for Juan, still including him facing lefties, and still having 15% of his plate appearances in a pinch hitting role:
And here is the line I developed earlier, where he never faced lefties, and never pinch hit:
In a full time platoon role, maybe he would land somewhere in between there, which would be darn good.
There usually is. There’s one at my school. But if a nutjob comes in on the other end of the school shooting people, it’s tough for our officer to make his way to him in a timely manner, especially considering he has to wade through chaos.
December 15th, 20129:20 am
Trumbo would be a solid deal with all that power he has, though we know Wren won’t give them what they’ll want I betcha. We are probably stuck with a platoon. Very frustrating to me.
December 15th, 20129:22 am
I want to say that every school in Georgia has to have a resource officer, but I’m not sure.
December 15th, 20129:23 am
i voted, did you?
December 15th, 20129:24 am
I know it won’t be popular with drama queen fans, but I’m interested to see what a slimmed down Francisco can do with a tinkered swing.
December 15th, 20129:27 am
Apparently a lot of people were looking for a Lentz Free forum – the new Braves page already has over 50 members. And I just received word from an old, well loved poster here on the blog and it seems he will be joinging the new page soon, too.
I wonder who it could be?
December 15th, 20129:28 am
Glad I have my phone handy since I’ll been waiting for this doctor a while longer. My glands around my neck are so swollen and this cough will drive ya nuts! All this crazy weather isn’t helping peoples symptoms either. This place is packed with coughers and snifflers.
December 15th, 20129:29 am
I’ll add this about Bill James. He projects 4 Braves to have over .800 OPS:
December 15th, 20129:33 am
old man – I just can’t understand why so many refuse to believe that this team is going toscore a serious amount of runs and will be much better than they’re being given credit for. Maybe they don’;t win the division, but they aren’t going to be letting the Nats run away with it, eiether. They will be very competitive.
December 15th, 20129:37 am
Is Journalist Jimmy Smith making a comeback, Lew?
Do you ever talk to Bob, Lew?
December 15th, 20129:40 am
I just can’t understand why so many refuse to believe that this team is going toscore a serious amount of runs
Well you have to understand where they’re coming from. I have my doubts too. The team that was 7th in the NL in runs scored last year lost a legend who was one of the team’s top OPS’ers and lost their leadoff hitter too. So far all they’ve replaced them with is a guy who hit .246 last year.
December 15th, 20129:41 am
And Gerald Lair
Braves will be fine. You lost Chipper and Bourn, though. Remember how good MB was in the first half. Those are big holes that Upton alone cannot cover.
December 15th, 20129:43 am
interesting read oldman about juan, i leaning towards not being to upset with him starting.
can any one point me in the right direction regarding looking back on individual predictions?
December 15th, 20129:45 am
I have not paid close enough attention. Who is Lentz? What’s up with that?
Even if the Braves do acquire a LF or 3B and Francisco turns out to be awesome, uh……trade bait!
December 15th, 20129:47 am
Who is Lentz?
Just buy a coo coo clock and wait for the bird to pop out and you’ll get the jist.
How would I describe P. Lentz, you ask? How would you spell the sound of a toilet flushing?
McFann :Ô: :Ô: :ô:
December 15th, 20129:49 am
Thanks for voting, guys!
Hey, haggard! Good to see you again!..
December 15th, 20129:52 am
jeffrey d How would I describe P. Lentz, you ask? How would you spell the sound of a toilet flushing?
Hahahahahaha!!! Sounds about right…but the poor toilet…
December 15th, 201210:00 am
Jason – Not since his wife passed away a few years ago – he kind of disappeared after that (they were both quite elderly and had been married for decades). Not sure if anyone has heard from him or if he’s still around. I’ll check with the Mystery Blogger and see if he knows or if he knows who might know.
December 15th, 201210:03 am
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Angels are telling people they’re not trading Mark Trumbo. Obviously, that changes with right offer but more inclined to deal Peter Bourjos
And as for JJS – to uote a well known cartoon rabbit – “Ehhhh, could be”.
Can report stronger now what I’d already heard was likely: Jays saying willing to offer d’arnaud and Gose in Dickey trade.
Have to imagine more is going to the Jays than Dickey. Mets are getting their future CF and C for one year of R.A. Dickey. Just insane.
Teams are certainly going for it this offseason. Tired of collecting prospects and leading the BA Top Org. lists.
December 15th, 201210:09 am
There was a quote from a rival executive regarding AA “He’s tired of collecting players, and finishing in fourth place”
Pretty much sums it up.
Thanks, Lew. I would appreciate that. He had e-mailed me not long after I moved to FL, but it is an account that I no longer use. I would love to drop him a note.
December 15th, 201210:12 am
Simmons .289 .351 .416 .767 Might be an overestimate
Prado .291 .347 .425 .772 In the ball park
Heyward .272 .360 .483 .843 May see better
Upton .248 .329 .436 .765 Uggla with speed – close
Freeman .282 .358 .481 .839 May see better
Uggla .238 .341 .439 .780 Likely, but let’s hope for more
McCann .266 .347 .467 .814 Not unreasonable
December 15th, 201210:15 am
jeffrey d- I keep hearing how we can’t replace Chipper as if he were still playing a full season and putting up HOF numbers.
Face facts – Chipper has not been that HOF player for several years now. He missed 50 games and even with that OPS as good as it was, he still only hit 14 HR (replaced all of his and Bourn’s too, plus a few more) and had to have someone play one of every threwe games for him. His defense was certainly less than stellar and will be more than adequately replaced even if Francisco is the starting 3B.
You’ve got five players with a more than legitimare shot at hitting 20-30 HR and an incredibly large amount of doubles. If you add Francisco and/or Gattis you add another potential 25 HR and even more power and you could reasonably add another 25 HR between Simmons and Prado. You’ve got speed in CF to replace Bourn with only a small dropoff in defense. Upton, Prado, and Heyward are all capable of stealing a goodly number of bases.
There may not be a lot of small ball played here and there will be a lot of K’s – but there is a whole lot of thunder up and down the lineup from 1-8.
I really fail to see how this team does not score runs and a lot of them.
December 15th, 201210:16 am
Which doesn’t bode well for the Braves trading for a LF. Should have snagged Span…seems to be easily the cheapest in terms of return of the players traded so far.
Remember reading that Ike Davis may go to the Jays in addition to Dickey.
inclined to deal Peter Bourjos
Get on it Frank.
December 15th, 201210:17 am
McFann always has my vote. Nice job
December 15th, 201210:21 am
perfect guy to buy low on, let him play in the 8 spot, groom him to become our leadoff man next year when/if Prado leaves. Plus speed, quick bat, great defense. We’ve already got our heavy hitters, and he’s better than Georgie/Constanza. Got great potential just like BJ, but much cheaper .(He posted a higher OPS+ in 2011 than BJ has since ‘09)
December 15th, 201210:24 am
I know Bill James is just some guy with a computer, but he’s certainly as legit as anyone on this blog. He has Bourn, 2013:
.273 .344 .363 .707
and Upton, 2013
.248 .329 .436 .765
I can’t say we lose anything there, on balance. Different type players, but we are at least even.
Chipper in 2012 was
.287 .377 .455 .832
If you could come this close with a new 3B or LFer or platoon, I think you will be OK:
.275 .330 .460 .790
I say this because, here are James’ projection for 2013 for everyone else, compared to our 2012 OPS numbers:
There is a lot of randomness to it, but I think these numbers support the general idea that we have two types of players: (1) star youngsters who will continue to progress, and (2) players with past records that strongly suggest they will move northward in 2013, toward their career norms. Nobody on our club had a “career” year that they are unlikely to reproduce. If you include Bourn (2012) and Upton (James, 2013)–an increase of 26 OPS points–we have a total 2013 projection over 7 lineup spots of +255 OPS points, compared to 2012. So even if Chipper’s replacement is a drop off from 2012, we have a lot of room to spare.
So, I agree with the optimists. We have already replaced Bourn. And we don’t need to completely replace Chipper.
December 15th, 201210:27 am
December 15th, 201210:28 am
Dickey and Ike Davis make a lot more sense, if that is what goes over. But I’m guessing there would be even more than would go over to the Mets then. It does sound like there is a lot more than just Dickey, d’Arnaud and Gose.
Enquiring Minds Want To Know
December 15th, 201210:29 am
The team that was 7th in the NL in runs scored last year lost a legend who was one of the team’s top OPS’ers and lost their leadoff hitter too. So far all they’ve replaced them with is a guy who hit .246 last year.
This is the scenario that those who think the Braves will score beaucoup runs (I include myself) foresee:
1. Our 23 year old core (Heyward, Freeman, & Simmons) will be a year more experienced, and therefore more consistent and even more productive.
2. Uggla and McCann will revert back toward their career norms.
3. Either Francisco or Gattis (perhaps both) will contribute power. No, they won’t replace Chipper Jones, but Chipper was fading fast last year. Even Chipper wasn’t replacing Chipper.
Now, if these things do not happen, then there’s trouble. But I like the odds.
I know I need to move on, but Choo would have been just about perfect. I get the impression from Bowman’s article that he was FW’s primary target and that FW really thought we were going to get him until AZ got involved and was willing to flip Bauer for a SS prospect.
December 15th, 201210:33 am
Got to go do all those things we put off until Saturday morning. Back later. Have fun.
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