If someone over 114 at bats was just knockin’ the snot off the ball, you would have no problem benching them in the basis that it’s a small sample size? Wouldn’t you keep them in there just to make sure their kSOB numbers didn’t stay up? Maybe stay up for another month? Or several years?
kSOB = “knockin’ the snot off the ball average.” See also, kSOB+ and kSOB splits.
Rockies are likely to keep the asking price high. He’s not that expensive and has produced well for them, definitely at home. To me I think a Delgado for Fowler swap would be fair, but I dont think Id do it. Toughie.
If I had to start the season today, with what we have, I’d put the Johnson/Francisco platoon out there without a second thought. The only issue is whether Dexter Fowler beats it.
Francisco/Johnson platoon
.296/.350/.545/.895
Dexter Fowler (assuming there is no “Coors swoon”)
.300/ .389/ .474/ .863
And Fowler carries a heavy trade price.
I’m fine with Fowler if the price is bearable. But not if we are getting raped by COL.
“DAP, December 12th, 2012, 4:28 pm … “heres the fbook page you wanna be on, if your gonna be on one for the blog:http://www.facebook.com/groups/231611130305683/?notif_t=group_r2j”
The question is now, how to unplug from the group that’s been Lentz’d.
sample size is the essence of statistical prediction, a few hundred at bats are of very low reliability, even 5 or 6 hundred can be completely different than the rest. as an example Chipper had a 600 at bat stretch in 2004 where his batting average was 50 plus points below what his career averages ended up as. you are welcome to make any claims that you want to, but don’t expect them to be accepted as all that meaningful
Yeah Lentz truly has no life, basically going down the whole line of us bloggers one by one talking junk. but now he’s decided to talk crap about my girlfriend and her 3 year old son… such a no life loser.
I think BJ Upton is a good but not great defender in CF, he’d be much better in a corner tho. I think were gonna get good value out of this deal for the full 5 years. He’ll only be 33 years old in the final year of the deal.
scoots – Not really. I just left the group. Just not worth listening to Lentz’s line of B.S.. I’d say the total break with reality has already started. Hope someone gets him back on his meds before he opens fire on a mall.
i think Id try offering Gilmartin and Lipka for Fowler, but I couldnt go anymore than that. With limited options we’d probably be better off just add another solid bench player type for platoon depth. Wren should concentrate on getting Prado and Heyward locked up to contracts.
still waiting for my request to be accepted, will be nice to have a Lentz free page. Pretty sad that right now he’s camped out in front of his cpu with one tab on the ajc blog (that he’s blocked from) reading everyone’s comments while talking crap on the DOB fan fb page lol…
I know bouncyball makes some of you want to puke (ahem, nolie polie) but gotta use a post to give some recognition to my Hawks. It’s early in the season, but they’re playing way beyond any expectations I had for this season.
Vedder, lead singer for Pearl Jam. awesome band as well. all of my favorite stuff is mainly from the 80s and back tho. Boston, Van Halen, Beatles, The Who, Tom Petty, Clapton, Hendrix, Stones, and could go on and on. Classic Rock Rules!
“Pretty sad that right now he’s camped out in front of his cpu with one tab on the ajc blog (that he’s blocked from) reading everyone’s comments while talking crap on the DOB fan fb page lol…”
Reminds me of the CNN debate where John Anderson (the third party candidate) debated Reagan and Carter by proxy, ’cause rhe establishnent wouldn’t let him attend the face to face debate.
TOBF, oh you were the one that brought up BABIP. Here is what I posted this afternoon. Can you tell me if it means anything?
Second, the BABIP monster reared its ugly head. I get the basic idea, but that’s about it. Is it normal for a guy who kills righties to have a higher BABIP against them? Anyway, Juan has only two years of meaningful MLB stats. Here are his BABIP numbers for the last two seasons:
YEAR/VS. LEFTY/VS. RIGHTY/COMBINED
2011/.222/.333/.316
2012/.280/.326/.318
Someone please tell me, does this mean one would expect Juan to regress or improve or stay the same against lefties or righties in 2013?
I note that Bill James is projecting a 2013 BABIP for Juan of .327. Does that mean he projects Juan’s numbers will go up next year?
Dang BABIP.
I also noted that maybe Juan is doing well this winter in part because he’s not pinch hitting any.
VaBravesFan, I read that comment he said about your girlfriend and son. I also saw the comments he made about Soph, CAB, and many other bloggers. I am trying to get access back to that group, since I left the group, because now I want to say a few things to him. My chest is starting to get tight from the pressure.
I couldn’t tell flange. I wasn’t even aware GE Smith was playing with him until I saw him up there. Andy Fairweather-Lowe used to play with Waters a lot.
im just gonna block him on facebook and leave that group after ive been accepted in the new group. i just went back and read threw his facebook and he mentioned on a few post that he has a shrink, so there you have it. he really wont let nothing go, even after you stop responding he still continues on and on..
im just gonna block him on facebook and leave that group after ive been accepted in the new group. i just went back and read threw his facebook and he mentioned on a few post that he has a shrink, so there you have it. he really wont let nothing go, even after you stop responding he still continues on and on..
im just gonna block him on facebook and leave that group after ive been accepted in the new group. i just went back and read threw his facebook and he mentioned on a few post that he has a shrink, so there you have it. he really wont let nothing go, even after you stop responding he still continues on and on..
while the support is appreciated, don’t even stress about him. He is not worth anyone’s time. He wants attention, nothing is ever his fault, he’s the injured party, blah blah blah…he’s NOT worth it. Just block him – the world is a much happier place when you don’t have to see his hateful, pathetic cries for attention. (I just realized…he is the male, way less famous, Lindsay Lohan!)
5,326 comments Add your comment
Murph
December 12th, 2012
6:38 pm
What’s it going to take to land Fowler, if the Braves were so inclined to do so?
Seems like he’d be an expensive pickup. Does he have any history with any of the local guys like Heyward?
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
6:39 pm
just sent the request to join new page.
nolie
December 12th, 2012
6:42 pm
all that effort would be more impressive if sample sizes that small actually meant anything
old man
December 12th, 2012
6:48 pm
nolie,
If someone over 114 at bats was just knockin’ the snot off the ball, you would have no problem benching them in the basis that it’s a small sample size? Wouldn’t you keep them in there just to make sure their kSOB numbers didn’t stay up? Maybe stay up for another month? Or several years?
kSOB = “knockin’ the snot off the ball average.” See also, kSOB+ and kSOB splits.
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
6:52 pm
Rockies are likely to keep the asking price high. He’s not that expensive and has produced well for them, definitely at home. To me I think a Delgado for Fowler swap would be fair, but I dont think Id do it. Toughie.
old man
December 12th, 2012
6:54 pm
If I had to start the season today, with what we have, I’d put the Johnson/Francisco platoon out there without a second thought. The only issue is whether Dexter Fowler beats it.
Francisco/Johnson platoon
.296/.350/.545/.895
Dexter Fowler (assuming there is no “Coors swoon”)
.300/ .389/ .474/ .863
And Fowler carries a heavy trade price.
I’m fine with Fowler if the price is bearable. But not if we are getting raped by COL.
Can I say that on the blog?
kenhotlanta
December 12th, 2012
6:54 pm
I sent a request to join the new page, too. Lots of mutual friends on here.
Murph
December 12th, 2012
6:54 pm
Yeah, Delgado for Fowler would be a tough one to stomach. It would take care of the OF for at least the next 3 seasons, though…
Couch Tater
December 12th, 2012
6:55 pm
all that effort would be more impressive if sample sizes that small actually meant anything
In the voice of my girlfriend. Damn.
abeeeewright
December 12th, 2012
6:55 pm
“DAP, December 12th, 2012, 4:28 pm … “heres the fbook page you wanna be on, if your gonna be on one for the blog:http://www.facebook.com/groups/231611130305683/?notif_t=group_r2j”
The question is now, how to unplug from the group that’s been Lentz’d.
nolie
December 12th, 2012
6:55 pm
sample size is the essence of statistical prediction, a few hundred at bats are of very low reliability, even 5 or 6 hundred can be completely different than the rest. as an example Chipper had a 600 at bat stretch in 2004 where his batting average was 50 plus points below what his career averages ended up as. you are welcome to make any claims that you want to, but don’t expect them to be accepted as all that meaningful
Patrick
December 12th, 2012
6:56 pm
Dexter Fowler is so over-rated and even more within the Rockies organization!
STAY AWAY!
Murph
December 12th, 2012
6:56 pm
Would Fowler be better in CF than Upton?
nolie
December 12th, 2012
6:58 pm
Gilmartin for Fowler would be about as much as I would offer and there is very little chance of them accepting that., prolly no chance really
abeeeewright
December 12th, 2012
7:00 pm
“I know who some of you are from sending out artwork, but I just got a barrage from folks I don’t know.”
Lew, abwright sent request circa 6:30 pm BST (blog standard time).
nolie
December 12th, 2012
7:00 pm
I think BJ is te better CF though according to most metrics at least neither are anything much at all
abeeeewright
December 12th, 2012
7:01 pm
Well, 7:00 is circa 6:30, isn’t it.
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
7:07 pm
Yeah Lentz truly has no life, basically going down the whole line of us bloggers one by one talking junk. but now he’s decided to talk crap about my girlfriend and her 3 year old son… such a no life loser.
nolie
December 12th, 2012
7:10 pm
like scoots said, a negative comment about one from Dentz is actually a very good thing…..
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
7:13 pm
I think BJ Upton is a good but not great defender in CF, he’d be much better in a corner tho. I think were gonna get good value out of this deal for the full 5 years. He’ll only be 33 years old in the final year of the deal.
CB
December 12th, 2012
7:27 pm
Va,I don’t do Facebook so I don’t know answer to this. They don’t have any rules to follow or someone to ban offenders?
TheOnlyBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
7:29 pm
Lew
December 12th, 2012
3:44 pm
scoots – Not really. I just left the group. Just not worth listening to Lentz’s line of B.S.. I’d say the total break with reality has already started. Hope someone gets him back on his meds before he opens fire on a mall.
Don’t do that!!! Just block the tard…
Efrim
December 12th, 2012
7:30 pm
jcrasnick Jerry Crasnick
#Braves pursued Shin-Soo Choo to play LF, as @Ken_Rosenthal reported. Choo would have given them three 20-20 guys in OF.
Sigh…..
TheOnlyBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
7:31 pm
TOBF–the kid from Two and Half Men.
I actually picture TOBF as the kid from Jerry Maguire, complete with glasses and spiky hair.
CB
December 12th, 2012
7:33 pm
Efrim, I believe I would have been willing to overpay for the guy. Sure would have made our offense strong 1-8,even for 1 yr.
TheOnlyBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
7:33 pm
Aren’t Fowler’s home/away splits kinda scary? I would be cautious.
.720 hitter on the road if we take out the aberration of 2010 (when he hit .595)
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
7:35 pm
Tom O’Hawke -
I’m watching but, looks like that “Boss” dude is on to kick it off. I’ll check back when his lame ass is off. Back to the Hawks. ♥
TheOnlyBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
7:35 pm
Efrim, I believe I would have been willing to overpay for the guy.
Go crazy like me and offer Teheran? Sigh for not getting him is right… sure sukks.
What’s this about a new FB page?
George_George
December 12th, 2012
7:37 pm
Outta here, concert time BRUCE is on.
CB
December 12th, 2012
7:37 pm
TOBF,not quite that much. I believe DAP gave a link on previous page.
TheOnlyBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
7:38 pm
wait old man, did you get any progress on Juan’s numbers? with a more normalized babip w/out the PH appearances…
Tom O'Hawke
December 12th, 2012
7:43 pm
I’m watching but, looks like that “Boss” dude is on to kick it off. I’ll check back when his lame ass is off. Back to the Hawks. ♥ — Mixxo
Hmmm, am I to gather from this post that Mixxo isn’t a Springsteen fan?
cabravesfan
December 12th, 2012
7:47 pm
Bruce puts on a pretty good show…amazing energy for an old guy
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
7:51 pm
i think Id try offering Gilmartin and Lipka for Fowler, but I couldnt go anymore than that. With limited options we’d probably be better off just add another solid bench player type for platoon depth. Wren should concentrate on getting Prado and Heyward locked up to contracts.
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
8:02 pm
Tom O’Hawke -
The band is great. I just can’t deal with the boss’s vocal. Nice bass guitar sound.
Do I see Nils Lofgren on that stage?
JasonInFL
December 12th, 2012
8:02 pm
I don’t think there is any way that the Rox trade Fowler without getting either Teheran or Delgado.
Tom O'Hawke
December 12th, 2012
8:04 pm
Hang in there, Mixxo. Maybe we can get Wren to trade him to the Angels.
cabravesfan
December 12th, 2012
8:04 pm
Mixxo-
Nils has been with Bruce for quite a while now
TheOnlyBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
8:06 pm
Ah okay, CB, I can understand that… just sukks we missed the perfect fit.
Found the link, Thanks!
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
8:07 pm
cabravesfan -
I was a Nils fan way back in the day. Seems like I heard he played with Bruce now that you mention it.
JasonInFL
December 12th, 2012
8:10 pm
Any FF players out there?
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
8:11 pm
still waiting for my request to be accepted, will be nice to have a Lentz free page. Pretty sad that right now he’s camped out in front of his cpu with one tab on the ajc blog (that he’s blocked from) reading everyone’s comments while talking crap on the DOB fan fb page lol…
cabravesfan
December 12th, 2012
8:11 pm
Mixxo-
Originally joined in 1984
JasonInFL
December 12th, 2012
8:11 pm
Do any of you play FF?
Soph
December 12th, 2012
8:18 pm
I know bouncyball makes some of you want to puke (ahem, nolie polie) but gotta use a post to give some recognition to my Hawks. It’s early in the season, but they’re playing way beyond any expectations I had for this season.
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
8:20 pm
Roger Waters playing Sandy Relief now. Love it.
Fear Builds Walls.
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
8:21 pm
Stand still, laddie!
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
8:22 pm
Soph -
I like the Hawks this year. The new bunch is really starting to gel.
Brava
December 12th, 2012
8:23 pm
Money!
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
8:25 pm
Who’s that guy singing with Waters?
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
8:25 pm
I may only be 25 but my favorite bands will always be Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd. Nothing is better, opinion of course lol
Brava
December 12th, 2012
8:27 pm
You have great taste in music, VaBravesFan.
Soph
December 12th, 2012
8:27 pm
Me too, Mixxo. Glad we can still ball without all that iso-Joe nonsense. Good riddance.
Brava
December 12th, 2012
8:28 pm
Us, us, us… and them….
Wilt the Stilt
December 12th, 2012
8:29 pm
Eddie Vedder
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
8:29 pm
Hillbilly -
Eddie Vedder…..another one of my ‘favorite’ vocalists. UGH!
They may as well bring that guy from REM and that other whiny dude from Smashing Pumpkins up there.
Make my night!
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
8:30 pm
Soph -
agreed.
Brava
December 12th, 2012
8:31 pm
Mixxo, I feel the same way about Eddie Vedder. Sings like he has a mouthful of poop.
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
8:33 pm
Haven’t you heard its a battle of words? the poster bearer cried.
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
8:35 pm
Brava -
Can’t take much of him. He used to pick a spot on the ceiling and stare at it the entire song. I see he kinda quit doing that.
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
8:38 pm
Vedder, lead singer for Pearl Jam. awesome band as well. all of my favorite stuff is mainly from the 80s and back tho. Boston, Van Halen, Beatles, The Who, Tom Petty, Clapton, Hendrix, Stones, and could go on and on. Classic Rock Rules!
JasonInFL
December 12th, 2012
8:39 pm
Keep hoping for that “Braves are in deep negotiations/discussions” tweet…
Tom O'Hawke
December 12th, 2012
8:41 pm
Can’t take much of him. He used to pick a spot on the ceiling and stare at it the entire song. I see he kinda quit doing that.
— Mixxo
I always thought that was because it was where he had the words of the song scrolling.
Brava
December 12th, 2012
8:41 pm
Don’t care for Pearl Jam and like Van Halen with DLR, not Sammy. The rest I agree on.
abeeeewright
December 12th, 2012
8:42 pm
“Pretty sad that right now he’s camped out in front of his cpu with one tab on the ajc blog (that he’s blocked from) reading everyone’s comments while talking crap on the DOB fan fb page lol…”
Reminds me of the CNN debate where John Anderson (the third party candidate) debated Reagan and Carter by proxy, ’cause rhe establishnent wouldn’t let him attend the face to face debate.
nolie
December 12th, 2012
8:44 pm
nobody left to deep negotiate for. contemplating Russian Roulette with two bullets instead of one since Choo was lost….
Tom O'Hawke
December 12th, 2012
8:44 pm
Keep hoping for that “Braves are in deep negotiations/discussions” tweet… — JasoninFL
Wren took a break to watch the concert.
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
8:44 pm
I knew that was Eddie Vedder singing on Comfortably Numb but who was that other dude singing on Us and Them and Money. Wasn’t Vedder.
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
8:47 pm
Adam Sandler bringin’ the funny!
JasonInFL
December 12th, 2012
8:51 pm
That’s acceptable, Tom!
flange1
December 12th, 2012
9:02 pm
Hillbilly, who was on guitar with Waters besides GE Smith and Snowwy White?
old man
December 12th, 2012
9:03 pm
TOBF, oh you were the one that brought up BABIP. Here is what I posted this afternoon. Can you tell me if it means anything?
Second, the BABIP monster reared its ugly head. I get the basic idea, but that’s about it. Is it normal for a guy who kills righties to have a higher BABIP against them? Anyway, Juan has only two years of meaningful MLB stats. Here are his BABIP numbers for the last two seasons:
YEAR/VS. LEFTY/VS. RIGHTY/COMBINED
2011/.222/.333/.316
2012/.280/.326/.318
Someone please tell me, does this mean one would expect Juan to regress or improve or stay the same against lefties or righties in 2013?
I note that Bill James is projecting a 2013 BABIP for Juan of .327. Does that mean he projects Juan’s numbers will go up next year?
Dang BABIP.
I also noted that maybe Juan is doing well this winter in part because he’s not pinch hitting any.
Hugo Z Hackenbush
December 12th, 2012
9:05 pm
The mystery singer was Kristen Stewart before she put her makeup on…
old man
December 12th, 2012
9:05 pm
TOBF, I should have added that Bill James number is a combined BABIP number, not a split of any kind.
What in hades do these numbers mean? That the sample size in addition to being small is aberrant? Or that it’s just small?
nolie
December 12th, 2012
9:06 pm
just small, which means that it has little reliability
Brava
December 12th, 2012
9:08 pm
Just let Jon sing, Bruce.
Trey
December 12th, 2012
9:08 pm
VaBravesFan, I read that comment he said about your girlfriend and son. I also saw the comments he made about Soph, CAB, and many other bloggers. I am trying to get access back to that group, since I left the group, because now I want to say a few things to him. My chest is starting to get tight from the pressure.
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
9:10 pm
I couldn’t tell flange. I wasn’t even aware GE Smith was playing with him until I saw him up there. Andy Fairweather-Lowe used to play with Waters a lot.
nolie
December 12th, 2012
9:11 pm
what good will that do Trey? That is exactly what he wants, he craves attention. Giving it to him simply makes him continue. Better to ignore him,
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
9:11 pm
Nice win Hawks!!!
flange1
December 12th, 2012
9:11 pm
Let it go Trey, it is not worth the effort.
You are giving him just what he wants.
Leave him be.
Wilt the Stilt
December 12th, 2012
9:13 pm
Guitarist was Dave Kilminster.
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
9:13 pm
Flange, whoever it was, they nailed Gilmour’s solos. Great stuff.
old man
December 12th, 2012
9:14 pm
nolie, where have I heard this before:
“just small, which means that it has little reliability.”
Oh yeah, my wife. Never mind.
Trey
December 12th, 2012
9:16 pm
nolie, it won’t do any good, but I will feel better. Lose the tension building in my chest.
Mixxo
December 12th, 2012
9:16 pm
Gilmour’s solos are hard to nail?
lol
Hugo Z Hackenbush
December 12th, 2012
9:16 pm
I concur with my alter ego.
Brava
December 12th, 2012
9:16 pm
I agree with the others, Trey. Just let it go. He’s not worth your time.
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
9:17 pm
Thanks Wilt.
Hillbilly
December 12th, 2012
9:17 pm
Thanks Wilt.
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
9:21 pm
im just gonna block him on facebook and leave that group after ive been accepted in the new group. i just went back and read threw his facebook and he mentioned on a few post that he has a shrink, so there you have it. he really wont let nothing go, even after you stop responding he still continues on and on..
Tom O'Hawke
December 12th, 2012
9:21 pm
Can’t swing a dead cat…
First time I heard that phrase was on, “Cheers”, by Carla Tortelli.
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
9:21 pm
im just gonna block him on facebook and leave that group after ive been accepted in the new group. i just went back and read threw his facebook and he mentioned on a few post that he has a shrink, so there you have it. he really wont let nothing go, even after you stop responding he still continues on and on..
Hugo Z Hackenbush
December 12th, 2012
9:21 pm
Wake me up when Bon Jovi is done…
VaBravesFan
December 12th, 2012
9:21 pm
im just gonna block him on facebook and leave that group after ive been accepted in the new group. i just went back and read threw his facebook and he mentioned on a few post that he has a shrink, so there you have it. he really wont let nothing go, even after you stop responding he still continues on and on..
Hugo Z Hackenbush
December 12th, 2012
9:25 pm
Are Jon and Kristen Stewart related? The resemblance is incredible…
nolie
December 12th, 2012
9:25 pm
I think it is un-American to not like Jon Bon ain’t it?
cabravesfan
December 12th, 2012
9:26 pm
Trey-
while the support is appreciated, don’t even stress about him. He is not worth anyone’s time. He wants attention, nothing is ever his fault, he’s the injured party, blah blah blah…he’s NOT worth it. Just block him – the world is a much happier place when you don’t have to see his hateful, pathetic cries for attention. (I just realized…he is the male, way less famous, Lindsay Lohan!)
Tom O'Hawke
December 12th, 2012
9:27 pm
WAKE UP, HUGO… Clapton is on
Tom O'Hawke
December 12th, 2012
9:30 pm
(I just realized…he is the male, way less famous, Lindsay Lohan!) — cabravesfan
I’m a little surprised that you didn’t use your friend, Kim K, there.