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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
4,816 comments Add your comment
Venice Jim
December 9th, 2012
11:38 pm
Paul Charles Lentz?
Bravesfaninnc
December 9th, 2012
11:38 pm
Well I guess with the Royals trading away Myers their is no way that they will trade Alex Gordon.
Mike
December 9th, 2012
11:38 pm
And Braves still have LF problems, oh well. We know that Royals is going to win atleast 10 more games
nolie
December 9th, 2012
11:39 pm
take your pick, he has 2 years left at just 7.5 per
Brava
December 9th, 2012
11:39 pm
Marc Topkin @TBTimes_Rays
#Rays Friedman: “Personally I think this is the most difficult trade we’ve made to date.”
Venice Jim
December 9th, 2012
11:39 pm
3 opens, 4 closes, but a quote does not need to be closed out…
Brava
December 9th, 2012
11:40 pm
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
The Royals just made a desperate trade.
cabravesfan
December 9th, 2012
11:40 pm
Tom? TOM?!? TOM!! I used to know someone named Tom…
Venice Jim
December 9th, 2012
11:40 pm
Unless you are a teenager and need on comment on what you post…
JasonInFL
December 9th, 2012
11:41 pm
Frank, you alive somewhere?
Tom O'Hawke
December 9th, 2012
11:42 pm
3 opens, 4 closes, but a quote does not need to be closed out… — (math genius)
Dammit!!!!!
Hello, LAdy!
JasonInFL
December 9th, 2012
11:42 pm
Great deal for the Rays
JasonInFL
December 9th, 2012
11:44 pm
Wondr if Frank has asked about Zobrist?
cabravesfan
December 9th, 2012
11:44 pm
Hi Tom!
Brava
December 9th, 2012
11:44 pm
Marc Topkin @TBTimes_Rays
#Rays Frieldman said they have been talking with #Royals since October and this form of deal gained traction Thurs + Fri
Venice Jim
December 9th, 2012
11:45 pm
Glad you show up after the Packers manage to win over a quasi-worthy opponent…
nolie
December 9th, 2012
11:45 pm
its a good deal for the Rays if Mters becomes the star that most think he will be, no guarantees yet
Tom O'Hawke
December 9th, 2012
11:46 pm
Glad you show up after the Packers manage to win over a quasi-worthy opponent… — VJ
This blog is too distracting. Didn’t want to lose focus in the game.
Brava
December 9th, 2012
11:46 pm
David Price @DAVIDprice14
Guys guys guys there’s been a huge misunderstanding…whenever we all wake up tomorrow Shields and WD40 will still be my teammates…
cabravesfan
December 9th, 2012
11:47 pm
Well now that he doesn’t have twitter anymore I don’t have to worry about him unfollowing me again…
richbrave
December 9th, 2012
11:48 pm
Tom O’HAWKE:
My main man. How’s tricks? Good to see you here once in awhile again. Any new music I missed the past six months?
nolie
December 9th, 2012
11:49 pm
Who is this Tom character? Do we know him???
richbrave
December 9th, 2012
11:50 pm
Someone else has MYERS and we-e-e- have GATTIS, and CUNNINGHAM.
Tom O'Hawke
December 9th, 2012
11:50 pm
Hello, richbrave!
The best “new” music I’ve been listening to was given to me by Jarryd. Nice jazz, I’ll try to give you a tune or two.
richbrave
December 9th, 2012
11:50 pm
Enter your comments here
Tom O'Hawke
December 9th, 2012
11:52 pm
Who is this Tom character? Do we know him??? — nolie
Yeah, I’m the one you banished to hell.
How ya doin’, buddy?
richbrave
December 9th, 2012
11:53 pm
Bein’ the Holiday Season, I would have supposed your spelling would have been ‘Jared,’ as in “HE WENT TO JARED.” Heh!
cabravesfan
December 9th, 2012
11:54 pm
Jared has some nice things. Any girl would like that…
Brava
December 9th, 2012
11:55 pm
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
I’ll say it again: How you view this trade hinges on how you view Davis. If he’s a legit starter, KC did well. If he’s not, they didn’t.
Venice Jim
December 9th, 2012
11:55 pm
Well, I guess it’s time to go back to a civilized conversation on Facebook with PL since the blog is welcoming the Prodigal…
richbrave
December 9th, 2012
11:55 pm
Oh crap, gotta’ pull the plug for now. TOM, leave a few titles if you will. I’ll catch them. Have a great Holiday Season, if we don’t post up before.
NYTOL.
cabravesfan
December 9th, 2012
11:56 pm
Diamonds (or sapphires or emeralds or rubies) truly are a girl’s best friend…
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
12:03 am
richbrave
I’ll get some titles to you. The group’s name is, “Snarky Puppy”.
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
12:07 am
richbrave
Or not… It may be, “Papa Grows Funk”. Jarryd gave me BOTH of those groups. I like them both, but I forgot which one I like better. They’re both good.
ChattTownBrian
December 10th, 2012
12:11 am
Now that Myers has been traded to the Rays … what’s the point of going on. Braves ate done and my life is ruined.
WAAAAAA!!!!!
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
12:14 am
Diamonds (or sapphires or emeralds or rubies) truly are a girl’s best friend… — cabravesfan
… and gourmet cooking.
nolie
December 10th, 2012
12:19 am
PROFESSOR HIGGINS:
Why can’t a woman be more like a man?
Men are so honest, so thoroughly square;
Eternally noble, historically fair.
Who, when you win, will always give your back a pat.
Why can’t a woman be like that?
Why does every one do what the others do?
Can’t a woman learn to use her head?
Why do they do everything their mothers do?
Why don’t they grow up, well, like their father instead?
Why can’t a woman take after a man?
Men are so pleasant, so easy to please.
Whenever you’re with them, you’re always at ease.
Would you be slighted if I didn’t speak for hours?
COLONEL PICKERING:
Of course not.
PROFESSOR HIGGINS:
Would you be livid if I had a drink or two?
COLONEL PICKERING:
Nonsense.
PROFESSOR HIGGINS:
Would you be wounded if I never sent you flowers?
COLONEL PICKERING:
Never.
PROFESSOR HIGGINS:
Well, why can’t a woman be like you?
One man in a million may shout a bit.
Now and then, there’s one with slight defects.
One perhaps whose truthfulness you doubt a bit,
But by and large we are a marvelous sex!
Why can’t a woman take after a man?
‘Cause men are so friendly, good-natured and kind.
A better companion you never will find.
If I were hours late for dinner would you bellow?
COLONEL PICKERING:
Of course not.
PROFESSOR HIGGINS:
If I forgot your silly birthday, would you fuss?
COLONEL PICKERING:
Nonsense.
PROFESSOR HIGGINS:
Would you complain if I took out another fellow?
Pickering
Never.
PROFESSOR HIGGINS:
Why can’t a woman be like us?
[dialog]
PROFESSOR HIGGINS:
Why can’t a woman be more like a man?
Men are so decent, such regular chaps;
Ready to help you through any mishaps;
Ready to buck you up whenever you’re glum.
Why can’t a woman be a chum?
Why is thinking something women never do?
And why is logic never even tried?
Straightening up their hair is all they ever do.
Why don’t they straighten up the mess that’s inside?
Why can’t a woman behave like a man?
If I was a woman who’d been to a ball,
Been hailed as a princess by one and by all;
Would I start weeping like a bathtub overflowing,
Or carry on as if my home were in a tree?
Would I run off and never tell me where I’m going?
Why can’t a woman be like me?
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
12:22 am
richbrave
I was right the first time, “Snarky Puppy”.
Here’s a link to listen to. If you like it, you can listen to anyone of the following 19.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lh0suC6pehc&playnext=1&list=RD07lh0suC6pehc
cabravesfan
December 10th, 2012
12:23 am
Tom-
ANY good cooking is wonderful. I’ve been spoiled the last 3 years
Good night!
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
12:26 am
Good night, LAdy!
Venice Jim
December 10th, 2012
12:28 am
You left out the best part:
Women are irrational, that’s all there is to that – their heads are full of cotton, hay and rags – they’re nothing but exasperating, irritating, vacillating, maddening and infuriating hags…
done without the benefit of copy and paste – the second album I learned 51 years ago…
Venice Jim
December 10th, 2012
12:30 am
Someone biting me for posting that…
nolie
December 10th, 2012
12:30 am
Very Good James…
Venice Jim
December 10th, 2012
12:31 am
Mrs. Pearce, you’re a woman…,
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
12:33 am
Someone biting me for posting that… — VJ
Sit, Nala, sit… bad girl!
nolie
December 10th, 2012
12:33 am
I’m not a huge fan of musicals though I do like some. That is my favorite
Venice Jim
December 10th, 2012
12:33 am
My niece got to go to a special screening of Les Mis today for close friends of Hugh Jackman – not sure how, but it is amazing that there is a movie I am looking forward to more than The Hobbit…
Mike Berry
December 10th, 2012
12:34 am
Does anyone have the piece from Buster Olney on Dale Murphy’s Hall of Fame case???
Venice Jim
December 10th, 2012
12:36 am
Nala is sweet…
nolie
December 10th, 2012
12:38 am
doing the Hobbit in three parts i hear. I might not be around for the end. Good thing I read the book….
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
12:39 am
Nala is sweet…
I didn’t realize you’ve been biting her back, VJ.
nolie
December 10th, 2012
12:39 am
Dale Murphy
When I got home from the winter meetings Friday, there was a thick brown envelope sitting in the kitchen basket: The Hall of Fame ballot, issued to the voting members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.
A few hours later, I got this in an email:
An Open Letter to the BBWAA: Making the HoF Case for Dale Murphy, or, The Guy Who Changed My Diapers. By Chad Murphy.
[Note: I've pasted the email below in its entirety. The usual links and notes from around baseball can be found at the conclusion of the email.]
My name is Chad Murphy. I’m Dale’s oldest son. ‘Tis the season for HoF voting, and this being the last year of my dad’s eligibility, I’d like to begin by reiterating the voting criteria, as per the Hall of Fame’s website:
5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.
Next, let me just list a few of my dad’s accomplishments in his former role as an active MLB player. Here goes:
• Back-to-back NL MVP 1982, 1983 (1 of only 13 players — and the youngest in history at that time)
• 7-time NL All-Star (top NL vote-getter and started in 5 of those games)
• 4-time Silver Slugger award-winner
• 5-time Gold Glove winner
• 6th player in MLB history to reach 30 home runs/30 stolen bases in a single season
• In 1983, he became the only player in history to compile a .302+ batting average, 30+ homeruns, 120+ runs batted in, 130+ runs scored, 90+ bases on balls, and 30+ stolen bases in a single season.
• Led MLB in total bases during the span of 1980-1989 (2,796)
• 2nd (only to HOFer Mike Schmidt) in total home runs from 1980-1989 (308)
• 2nd (only to HOFer Eddie Murray) in total runs from 1980-1989
• 1st in total home runs from 1980-1989 among all Major League outfielders (308)
• 1st in total RBIs from 1980-1989 among all Major League outfielders (929)
• 2nd in total hits from 1980-1989 among Major League outfielders (1,553)
• 2nd in total extra-base hits from 1980-1989 among Major League outfielders (596)
• Played in 740 consecutive games from 1980-1986 (11th longest streak in history at the time, and 13th today. Only missed 20 games total between 1980-1989)
• In 1987, reached base in 74 consecutive games (3rd longest streak in Major League history)
• 398 career homeruns (19th in Major League history when he retired, 4th among active players)
• 2111 career hits
• 1266 career RBIs
• .265 career batting average
• Sports Illustrated’s “Sportsmen of the Year” Award, 1987 (represented baseball as their “Athlete Who Cares the Most” for his charity work, along with U.S. gold medalist Judi Brown King, Kenyan gold-medalist Kip Keino, and others)
• Lou Gehrig Award, 1985 (given to the player who most exemplifies the character of Lou Gehrig, both on and off the field)
• Roberto Clemente Man of the Year Award, 1988 (given to the player who “best exemplifies the game of baseball, sportsmanship, community involvement and the individual’s contribution to his team”)
• Bart Giamatti Community Service Award, 1991
• Jersey number “3″ retired by the Braves, 1994
• Inducted into the World Sports Humanitarian Hall of Fame, 1995 (induction class with Roberto Clemente and Julius Erving. One of only 8 baseball players inducted in the Hall’s history)
• Inducted into the Little League Hall of Excellence, 1995 (joining Mike Schmidt, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Nolan Ryan, and others)
• Inducted into the Georgia Sports Hall of Fame, 1997
• Inducted into the Oregon Sports Hall of Fame, 1997
• Inducted into the Braves Hall of Fame, 2000 (joining Phil Niekro and Hank Aaron, among others)
• Founder of the IWon’tCheat Foundation in 2005, whose mission is to encourage character development among youth
Next, I really want to dive into his sabermetrics, starting with his JAWS, WAR, and WAR7, and then moving on to his JPOS, WPA, OPS, and — last but certainly not least — the all-important holy quadrinity of VORP, GORP, SCHLORP, and THUNDERCORK.
Oh wait, no I don’t.
Stand down, statistics nerds.
I have no desire to get into some sort of cryptic mathematical argument for my dad’s induction into the Hall of Fame. The numbers are what they are — maybe they’re strong enough for the Hall on their own, maybe not. Whatever. The bigger issue, to me, is this: what happened to three of the criteria listed under the rules for election, namely, integrity, character, and sportsmanship? Gone but also forgotten? No doubt a player’s stats (i.e., “record” and “playing ability”) are a crucial part of the equation, but that’s just the point: we’re talking about an equation here, folks. And we’ve got a serious case of missing variables. Where’d they go, friends?
To be fair, I’ll grant the nerds this: In most cases things like “integrity” and “character” and “sportsmanship” are mighty difficult to quantify. I get that. Other than, say, creating a variable along the lines of “number of arrests for drug possession” or “number of ejections from a game,” it’s not exactly clear yet how to go about measuring those attributes. As a consequence, this so-called “character clause” does a real number on our quest for objectivity, which makes us uneasy. And so it makes sense that collectively we’ve emphasized the part of the voting criteria that is easier to measure and largely beyond subjective interpretation, namely, on-field statistics. Fine.
But hold on, maybe not fine. The character clause isn’t just totally MIA. In fact, it seems to come roaring back into the conversation every so often when certain players are mentioned, as if judging character weren’t so difficult after all. And, mysteriously, this only seems to happen in cases where the point is keep someone out (see: Pete Rose, Shoeless Joe Jackson, the ‘Roid Boys). Indeed, then it gets easy: Gamblers? Out! Cheaters? Be gone! Vehement racists? Well, okay, you can stay (lookin’ at you, Cap Anson). Of course, the obvious question here is from whence this biased, one-way application of the character clause?
Here’s one possibility. In psychology there’s a well-known and well-established finding known as the “bad is stronger than good” principle. In 2001, Roy Baumeister and colleagues reviewed a large number of studies and found overwhelming evidence that negative events figure more prominently in our minds — and are hence easier to recall — than positive ones. For example, the authors cite a 1978 study by Brickman and colleagues where they interviewed people who one year previous had either won the lottery (a supposed “good” event) or had been paralyzed in an accident (a bad event).
What they found was that the intense negative feelings associated with being paralyzed had not abated a year later, while the positive feelings from winning the lottery had almost totally disappeared and the details of the experience entirely forgotten. The upshot here is that we, as human beings, adapt very quickly to good events, so quickly, in fact, that it doesn’t take long for us to forget the those good things completely. And isn’t the uneven application of the character clause perhaps an illustrative example of this quirk in human memory and reasoning? Bad behavior (some of which — e.g., Joe Jackson — happened, er, 100 years ago) appears to occupy a more central place in the minds of voters than the exemplary behavior of players like Dale Murphy.
These two facts — 1) the difficulty of objectively quantifying qualitative characteristics about a player; and 2) our deeply-engrained negativity bias as human beings — have led to a troubling scenario where we either ignore the character clause altogether, or we use it to keep people out, citing their public sins. But let’s be honest: you can’t have it both ways. Either we apply the character clause for all eligible players, equally, allowing for both negative and positive evaluations to count toward a player’s HoF case, or we toss it out completely. If the latter, then say goodbye (probably) to my dad’s HoF chances at the same time you say hello to Mr. Rose and Mr. he-of-no-shoes Jackson. Oh, and might as well roll out the red carpet for Mr. Bonds, too.
As the voting criteria currently stand, however, there’s no doubt that a fair, holistic assessment of my dad’s playing years would reveal that he is exactly the type of player we should want to represent the game of baseball for future generations. As the criteria suggest, HoF membership is not the equivalent of a career-long MVP award; rather, it’s an honor bestowed upon players for the legacies they left behind. In my dad’s case, that’s a dang near unimpeachable legacy indeed.
Chad Murphy
P.S. And if it’s numbers you want, take a look at this chart (attached) compiled by a friend of mine, Jonathan Clark. [From Buster: The chart is too wide to replicate here; it compares Murphy's numbers to a number of current Hall of Famers.]
Looking at just one element — his ability to generate runs — this is pretty impressive. Each of the measures presented are aimed at comparing my dad on his run production ability to more recent HOF outfielders. Pretty interesting stuff, if you ask me! A few things stand out: (1) only Willie Stargell and Reggie Jackson were more likely to hit a home run than my dad, (2) my dad was about as good (or better) than each of these guys in terms of run production (i.e., scoring runs or RBIs), and (3) In terms of awards and/or leaderboards (see the black ink measure) my dad was better than many of these guys. See the notes below the table for some information on averages for these stats during the ['80s] (1980-1989). A quick look at the average likelihood of a home run or the probability of run production tells you just how good my dad was. He was more than twice as likely as the average MLB player to produce a run or to hit a homerun.
nolie
December 10th, 2012
12:44 am
Borderline IMO even though he was my second favorite Brave of all time. I do think he deserved a lot more votes than he got. He never even came close
Venice Jim
December 10th, 2012
12:45 am
Heading off – since I have had nothing controversial to say tonight, I should point put that Bubba McBraves Fan since 1932 was totally off base for demanding a trade for Saul Berenson – as much as I love Mandy, he has trouble with lefties at this point…
Gone Viral
December 10th, 2012
12:46 am
Just hang in there18 more months, nolie. The third Hobbit film is released in July of 2014.
Mike Berry
December 10th, 2012
12:48 am
Thanks a lot Nolie…appreciate it.
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
12:48 am
No correction for put, VJ?
A stat-padding opportunity not taken? Man, you’ve changed, Jim.
nolie
December 10th, 2012
12:53 am
you’re welcome Mike, any time
Brava
December 10th, 2012
1:06 am
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Royals tried to trade Myers for Shields straight up. Rays said no. Weeks later, they arrived at the final six-player deal.
Arkansas Transplant
December 10th, 2012
1:08 am
no one really expected the Braves to be aggressive on the trade front, did they?
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
1:15 am
I didn’t expect them, after making the playoffs while losing their best pitcher, Beachy, to do anything too reckless, either, AT.
kenhotlanta
December 10th, 2012
1:19 am
Hey Tom, good to see you. Hope all is well.
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
1:22 am
Hi, Ken! Yes, all is well. Been pretty busy, but that’s a good thing, right?
Hope it’s all well on your end, too.
kenhotlanta
December 10th, 2012
1:24 am
nolie, thanks, and I firmly believe he belongs just for his character alone, which is up there with Gehrig and Musial… and he put up HOF numbers for 10 years. Koufax only had 6 prime years. But it’s too late now, at least during our lifetime.
kenhotlanta
December 10th, 2012
1:28 am
Tom, doing good, thanks. Except all these Rock and Roll groups celebrating their 50th Anniversary are making me feel my age, though.
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
1:29 am
I’ve always said… if the HOF gave you any points for being a “Class Act”, then Murphy would’ve been in on the first ballot.
Tom O'Hawke
December 10th, 2012
1:31 am
I’m amazed how many of those old groups are still together and doing concerts. Fleetwood Mac just announced that they’re going on tour, again.
Ward
December 10th, 2012
3:39 am
Hello everyone! It’s hard to say what Wren, will do next? I hope he can make a deal, and get us Bonafacio. Ichiro, looks like he will sign with Yankees. That leaves Choo left, and Fowler, who Wren could still strike a deal within the few months. Don’t count out Cody Ross? He’s still out there, and he still could sign with Braves?
Ward
December 10th, 2012
3:41 am
The market is now thinning, so I expect Wren, do some thing with a couple of weeks. That’s just my opinion. Let’s hope he will get our LF?
Ward
December 10th, 2012
3:44 am
All, let’s drop the Ellsbury thing. Boston would wan’t too much, and he’s not healthy most of the time…..Very risky. He’s one player I would pass….
Ward
December 10th, 2012
3:46 am
Braves have been great in signing players. I would expect a trade to happen within a couple of months. we need to be patient……
Ward
December 10th, 2012
3:52 am
All, have a good one! Patience, and Wren, will get us our LF. Patience is some times the best policy……Peace my friends, and “Go!!!!!Braves!!!!!”
BFChris28
December 10th, 2012
7:17 am
As a Braves fan this makes me sad, but as a Rays fan I am extremely excited
old man
December 10th, 2012
7:52 am
Just waking to the news of the Myers trade. [I'm calling it the Myers trade, not the Price trade, so that tells you something about who won it]. So Gordon is gone, and this probably drives up the price for Choo. If they want Teheran or DelGado, I doubt we make that trade. At least I hope we don’t.
With Francisco and Teheran playing well this winter, maybe we need to be flexible about what we are doing here. Maybe we need to re-examine the entire idea of having to acquire another premium OFer. I like Cody Ross as a platoon with Francisco, but now I am wondering if you want to lock him in for 3 years. Is there anyone on the FA market who would do a one year deal, that kills lefties? A better version of Reed Johnson? A one year version of Cody Ross? A “crushes lefties only” version of Choo? A one year 6-8M deal?
Having extra cash sitting around would allow us to pick up a big time bat at the deadline and eat half a season of a big salary.
We just don’t need to get panicky because of the Myers trade and make a bad deal for Choo. He would be fantastic, but not a too high a cost.
old man
December 10th, 2012
7:53 am
Gotta work on those italics. Dang it.
old man
December 10th, 2012
7:54 am
Just waking to the news of the Myers trade. [I'm calling it the Myers trade, not the Price trade, so that tells you something about who won it]. So Gordon is gone, and this probably drives up the price for Choo. If they want Teheran or DelGado, I doubt we make that trade. At least I hope we don’t.
With Francisco and Teheran playing well this winter, maybe we need to be flexible about what we are doing here. Maybe we need to re-examine the entire idea of having to acquire another premium OFer. I like Cody Ross as a platoon with Francisco, but now I am wondering if you want to lock him in for 3 years. Is there anyone on the FA market who would do a one year deal, that kills lefties? A better version of Reed Johnson? A one year version of Cody Ross? A “crushes lefties only” version of Choo? A one year 6-8M deal?
Having extra cash sitting around would allow us to pick up a big time bat at the deadline and eat half a season of a big salary.
We just don’t need to get panicky because of the Myers trade and make a bad deal for Choo. He would be fantastic, but not a too high a cost.
old man
December 10th, 2012
7:54 am
Nailed it.
CB
December 10th, 2012
8:07 am
So, Myers by himself was not enough to get Shields. A trade of Medlen or Minor might have worked. We could have been a contender.
TennesseePaul
December 10th, 2012
8:17 am
here you go Efrim:
Kansas City has agreed to acquire right-hander James Shields, right-hander Wade Davis and a player to be named or cash from Tampa Bay in exchange for outfielder Wil Myers, right-hander Jake Odorizzi, left-hander Mike Montgomery and third baseman Patrick Leonard
old man
December 10th, 2012
8:18 am
I thought it was odd that LAD plowed ahead with a huge deal right after the adverse court ruling last week. A judge has just ruled that the entire system of giving each team exclusive local broadcasting geographic areas is part of an illegal conspiracy.
MLB will have to settle this case, and agree to an entirely different system of selling TV rights for each of its member clubs. The LAD deal is not final yet, so why would the company bidding on their TV deal agree to sign a contract now, right after a judge has said that contract is part of an illegal conspiracy?
If all the clubs have to soon vote on a new system as part of a settlement, won’t the poor clubs (e.g., ATL) vote for a system that levels the TV money playing field? What is LAD going to do then, when they have already committed to player contracts with money they end up not having?
ncscoots
December 10th, 2012
8:19 am
We could have been a contender.
Early-morning troublemaker.
The usual crowd flayed the Myers trade as bad for the Royals (and it might end up that way), but it’s obvious that the Royals have some urgency about them. Including the young pitching in the trade, I can understand. Not as if they don’t have more young pitching stashed away and waiting. If Davis is a good starter for them and their young position players step up, they have a chance in a weak division. That might be more important to them than what Wil Myers does for the next six years (not that Law and Neyer and such take that into account, LOL).
JasonInFL
December 10th, 2012
8:27 am
I understand why the Royals made the trade. If they had gotten Price instead of Shields, I would have no issue. They traded away a lot of young talent for 2 years of Shields is all. I, as most people, would have liked the trade better for the Royals if they would have gotten more controllable years for the ace they received.
TennesseePaul
December 10th, 2012
8:27 am
old man, from my understanding, the ruling merely allowed the process to go to court. It wasn’t a final ruling… and a settlement could still be an outcome. And, lastly, I doubt a change in the way MLB does TV rulings, is going to mean networks and stations pay pennies on the dollar. In the age of the DVR, live sporting events are about the only consistent money maker for networks. They will pay huge for it.
JasonInFL
December 10th, 2012
8:28 am
As long as there is a chance the Braves can get out from underneath of their colossal failure of a tv contract…
TennesseePaul
December 10th, 2012
8:31 am
better for the Royals if they would have gotten more controllable years for the ace they received.
They got 2 years of a vet top of the rotation guy, plus Wade Davis… and that guy is under control forever. Five more years if he’s good. Two years if he stinks… That’s a very club friendly contract.
2013:$2.8M, 2014:$4.8M, 2015:$7M club option, 2016:$8M club option, 2017:$10M club option ($2.5M buyout)
Efrim
December 10th, 2012
8:35 am
I think it’s a fine deal for both sides and it’s definitely a little much to say the Rays won the trade by a lot. Shields is a stud, imo.
However, I wouldn’t of traded Myers and I wouldn’t of invested $21 million AAV for 2013 into Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie.
ncscoots
December 10th, 2012
8:35 am
If they had gotten Price instead of Shields, I would have no issue.
I’d rather have platinum than gold, too.
But one would have to know how the packages progressed during the discussions to have any idea whether that would have worked. Maybe the Royals get Price but not Davis, maybe Price costs one more prospect than was reasonable, maybe Price costs a switch from Odorizzi to Paulino, yada yada yada. Shields seems reasonable to me.
At least, I no longer wonder about what kind of Braves’ package might have secured Shields, LOL. They ain’t got one.
Efrim
December 10th, 2012
8:37 am
The Kansas City Royals’ main goal this offseason had to be to make the club into a potential 85-win team, at a minimum. In a desperately weak AL Central, an 85-win baseline puts you within variance of contention — a little luck, a breakout or two, some ill fortune in Detroit or Chicago — and that’s about the best GM Dayton Moore could reasonably have accomplished in one winter.
The best path to do that was to try to max out the lineup, adding top prospect Wil Myers in right field in place of Jeff Francoeur and all the outs he makes, letting new hitting coach Jack Maloof try to fix Eric Hosmer by getting his hands down, and adding starting pitching whenever possible. Instead, the Royals traded Myers for pitching help in a deal with the Tampa Bay Rays featuring James Shields that might make them slightly better in the short term but at a severe long-term cost. And it’s quite possible they don’t even sniff 80 wins with the pitching they just acquired, unless there’s another substantial deal coming.
Royals get help at a cost
The Royals did get pitching help for 2013, clearly. They had no one on their 2012 staff who was close to as valuable as Shields was — using Fangraphs’ WAR, for one quick reference point, Shields’ total of 4.3 was more than double that of any Royals’ starters. Kansas City used a lot of replacement-level arms in its rotation this past season and might have done so again, so Shields really could add 4-5 wins to the Royals’ win total by adding 220 of his usual innings and ridding the team of the need to use guys the caliber of Nate Adcock and Vin Mazzaro. Shields has plus command with an out-pitch changeup and an above-average curveball, but can be homer-prone because his fastball isn’t that hard and is a little true. His contract will pay him more than $22 million over the next two years, making him a good value but not an outstanding one.
Kansas City also got Wade Davis in this deal, and I’d like to see him given another shot in the rotation even with his newfound success in relief, where his stuff got dramatically better and his strikeout rate spiked. It could be a spring training experiment in which the team stretches him out and sees how his arm responds. If he’s back down to 2011 levels, they scrap it and put him in the pen, but when he was coming up as a prospect he threw harder and had better bite on his curveball.
At 92-95 mph on his fastball with a curveball around 80-82, which is what he was in the minors but less than what he showed in relief this year, he’d have a chance to be a league-average starter, especially given his size and capacity to handle 200 innings. Even a 2-WAR guy is helpful to a team that just nonsensically guaranteed it will pay Luke Hochevar about $5.5 million to post a 5-plus ERA, and Davis could be better than that if his stuff holds up in the rotation. At worst, he returns to the pen where he was excellent in 2012, but only provides about 70 innings of work.
The net result for the Royals, assuming that the player to be named later is not significant, is that they probably added 3-4 wins for 2013 with this trade, and that’s just not enough to get them into contention, or to justify giving up one of the top two pure hitting prospects (along with Oscar Taveras of the St. Louis Cardinals) in all of the minors. The deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job, which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions.
Unfortunately, as with former Seattle Mariners GM Bill Bavasi and the Erik Bedard deal, trades made under those circumstances often come back around to be the cause of a change in leadership. This looks very much like the deal that, barring something completely unexpected, will be the move that brings Dayton Moore’s tenure in Kansas City, one marked by massive improvement in the team’s farm system, to an end.
Rays cash in
For Tampa Bay, this is a heist, a potential franchise-making deal that should allow the Rays to continue their run of contention on a dime for several more years as they acquire a centerpiece bat in Myers, a potential mid-rotation starter in Jake Odorizzi, and two other prospects, none of whom has more than a few days of major-league service — meaning the Rays get six years of club control of each of them.
Myers is by far the most important name here, a top-five prospect in all of baseball who has raked at every level and should have debuted in the majors this summer but was blocked by the Royals’ Francoeur fetish. His swing is very simple and he has quick wrists to generate bat speed; he has lengthened his stride at the plate, giving him a longer finish for more power with the slight downside of some collapse on his back side, which probably explains the high strikeout rate in Triple-A. I could see him debuting this year with a modest average but strong power numbers, only to bring the average up in time because he’s a smart, patient hitter who’ll also increase his bat control as his body matures. In the long run, he’s a potential top-five overall player in the league, and you don’t get guys like that just any day.
Odorizzi finished strongly in Triple-A for the Royals this year and is major league ready, or close to it. The righty is a former high school wide receiver who’s very athletic with a clean, repeatable delivery — maybe too clean as he doesn’t have a ton of deception and his 90-94 mph fastball is straight, making him a touch homer-prone. He has a four-pitch mix, led by a solid-to-average changeup that produced a reverse platoon split for him across Double- and Triple-A this year. I’d like to see him scrap one breaking ball, more likely the curve, to see if committing to one such pitch makes it more effective, but even without that I like his athleticism and fastball command even if he’s not more more than an emergency call-up in 2013.
Lefty Mike Montgomery has the widest range of possible outcomes of the four players in the deal, because he has the stuff of a No. 2 starter and the command of the little kid down the block who aims for the living room window and breaks one on the second floor instead.
He’s had minor elbow issues but never had a serious injury; he was struggling with his landing in spring training, a relatively minor thing to fix, but was worse in 2012 than he had been the year before.
Montgomery will touch 97 and sit in the low to mid-90s with an above-average changeup and a big, slow curveball that looks pretty but isn’t hard or sharp enough to be more than a third pitch in his arsenal. He has had disputes with the Royals’ player-development people over aspects of his between-outings regimen, and perhaps he just needed a change of scenery. His arm is live enough that he’s absolutely worth taking a flier on even though there’s a fairly high chance he ends up in the pen or as nothing at all.
The Rays also got short-season outfielder Patrick Leonard, who has plus raw power from a somewhat uphill swing and a plus arm, although he’s probably headed for first base in the long run and will have to show real improvement in his hit tool to profile there.
The Rays still have a surplus of starters, with David Price the ace, Matt Moore not far behind, and Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann and Chris Archer all candidates for the other three spots, while Odorizzi himself is probably ready for a major league role. More importantly, Myers could be their second-best hitter at some point this year, behind only Evan Longoria, given a mildly optimistic forecast for a guy who has always hit when healthy.
Myers also gives them the impact hitting prospect they haven’t had since Longoria — their best position-player prospects, such as Desmond Jennings, Hak-Ju Lee, and even Tim Beckham before his fall from grace — have all been up-the-middle guys with more defensive value and less bat. Myers should be a good defensive right fielder in time, as he’s a good athlete with very good instincts, but his value is going to come on offense, and that’s something the Rays lack, even in the upper levels of their system.
He alone, for two years of Shields and three years of Davis (who has club options beyond that), would have made sense. To get Myers plus a likely mid-rotation starter, plus a lefty with arm strength, plus a low-level hitting prospect, makes this an outstanding day for Rays fans.
Efrim
December 10th, 2012
8:39 am
That was Keith Law, by the way.
Efrim
December 10th, 2012
8:44 am
Myers is by far the most important name here, a top-five prospect in all of baseball who has raked at every level and should have debuted in the majors this summer but was blocked by the Royals’ Francoeur fetish.
In the long run, he’s a potential top-five overall player in the league, and you don’t get guys like that just any day.
He alone, for two years of Shields and three years of Davis (who has club options beyond that), would have made sense. To get Myers plus a likely mid-rotation starter, plus a lefty with arm strength, plus a low-level hitting prospect, makes this an outstanding day for Rays fans. – Keith Law
That’s more love for Myers than Murph would give him. I mean…..
W-O-W.
TennesseePaul
December 10th, 2012
8:47 am
However, I wouldn’t of traded Myers and I wouldn’t of invested $21 million AAV for 2013 into Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie.
Guthrie isn’t a bad investment, I don’t think. His an innings eating average veteran starter for $8M. He did not take well to Colorado last season, but he hasn’t been awful in his career. Ervin Santana on the other hand, I don’t trust that guy. But then, it is his walk year. Perhaps that will be a motivator for him.
Efrim
December 10th, 2012
8:49 am
BenBadler Wow wow wow do I love that trade for the Rays.
Basically anyone who deals in prospects and is a sabr person will love this trade for the Rays and think the Royals got mugged.
The other side will say it’s fair for both sides.
Trout vs. Cabrera all over again.
ncscoots
December 10th, 2012
8:49 am
a potential top-five overall player in the league…like his athleticism and fastball command even if he’s not more more than an emergency call-up in 2013…arm is live enough that he’s absolutely worth taking a flier on…probably headed for first base in the long run and will have to show real improvement in his hit tool to profile there
Notice the tenor of this breakdown, and from a guy who absolutely loves the Rays’ side of the trade. “Potential”, “take a flier”, etc. Don’t get me wrong, I think the world of Myers and I’m sure the Rays will count it a win if only he proves out and the rest of the trade goes bust. But it does seem that some pundits have all these youngsters with long and satisfying ML careers already in the bank, and that might be a touch optimistic.
Couch Tater
December 10th, 2012
8:49 am
Royals have some urgency
Dayton Moore’s contract expires in 2014. Looking for a contender to avoid Palookaville.
Efrim
December 10th, 2012
8:52 am
Guthrie isn’t a bad investment, I don’t think.
It’s more Santana, for sure. And looking at their rotation as a whole prior to last night I just thought they could of done a bit more. I think they should try Wade Davis as a starter. They have enough pen arms.
Shields, Guthrie, Santana, Davis, Hochevar, Chen.
ncscoots
December 10th, 2012
8:53 am
He alone, for two years of Shields and three years of Davis (who has club options beyond that), would have made sense.
This is just some kind of mescaline-induced fantasy dream. Law must have not proofread that part of his analysis. I mean, please.
Efrim
December 10th, 2012
8:54 am
Dayton Moore’s contract expires in 2014
Yeah, he is going Jim Fassel on the league. Poker chips to the middle of the table.
TennesseePaul
December 10th, 2012
8:57 am
But it does seem that some pundits have all these youngsters with long and satisfying ML careers already in the bank, and that might be a touch optimistic.
No, really?
Efrim
December 10th, 2012
9:00 am
This is just some kind of mescaline-induced fantasy dream. Law must have not proofread that part of his analysis. I mean, please.
Agreed.
I guess if I were Moore, Myers would just be someone I was not willing to discuss and a player I wanted to be apart of the team’s future. I would of done by best to try and trade Starling, Ventura, etc. for a starter. Just my opinion on that. For me, that would of been more optimal.
ncscoots
December 10th, 2012
9:00 am
Yeah, he is going Jim Fassel on the league. Poker chips to the middle of the table.
Who can blame him? The only goody in the trophy case is the BA Top Farm System Trophy. There comes a time when value means diddly, if you can’t cash some of it in for sustenance.