4:03 pm December 4, 2012, by David O'Brien
December 5th, 20128:59 pm
And misspelled “combined.” *sigh*
Gordon, .284/.366/.457/.823, 19hrs
Choo, .283/.374/.440/.814/ 16hrs
December 5th, 20129:01 pm
Hanson was projected to make 4mil in arb for next season… so I count him being gone as an extra 4mil (really 3.5 since we got Walden) to spend.
Juan and EOF for Jon Jay to play LF… not an impact bat though, but is a solid leadoff hitter and defender. .300/.360/.400 batting line
December 5th, 20129:02 pm
you also said you would trade an established starter for an unproven prospect, something that has almost never happened in baseball when it is a contender trading away the established player during the winter. prolly not gonna happen
December 5th, 20129:03 pm
How about a straight-up Upton for Simmons trade? Then put Prado at SS, where he excelled in late summer ‘12, and let the rest of the jokers fight it out for 3B?
That’s right, y’all, I’m “thinking out of the box.”
December 5th, 20129:04 pm
Bruce Levine @ESPNBruceLevine
Cubs and Ryan Dempster’s agent talking parameters of deal. No direct offer yet. See blog.
You wouldn’t trade Medlen for Myers straight up?
December 5th, 20129:05 pm
Frank Wren: There is nothing wrong with taking steps to beef up the bullpen and back stop the catcher–and it is not that we don’t trust you*, but in case you are unaware…………WE NEED MORE OFFENSE!!!!!
* (you know Frank, we are a just a bit gun shy after KK, Lowe, McOut, and Uggla)
December 5th, 20129:06 pm
course those projections are based on their current teams
#1 they are most always off anyway and #2 a change in teams would likely make James rerate them a bit. Overall Choo has been a noticeably better hitter than Gordon and a better baserunner
what I dont see mentioned on here enough is that these GM’s are all in essence playing poker. They are playing it with the media and each other. The more info you reveal the weaker your negotiating power. Frank knows what the budget is and has several plans in mind. Scouts give input as well as assistants.There is info about players we don’t know. Read any biography about a baseball player and you learn all the sides of the player that often are not public info. As we have seen, even marginal, bench type players are getting multi year deals.Pitchers with 4.00-4.50 ERA’s are getting contracts for tens of millions. If you have a specific budget and have to adhere to it you can’t afford a mistake on a premium player if at all possible. If you do err, its not without all the due diligence and input of tons of information from multiple sources. It is frustrating playing the waiting game but this stuff takes balls and any GM worth his salt is a good poker player. Play on Frank and push the chips to the middle and put us over the top.
December 5th, 20129:07 pm
wouldn’t even consider it, most likely neither will Wren. if nothing else a good way to put your job in jeopardy….
Breaking news folks:
An Atlanta Pro team is on National TV…..and LEADING!
Hawks 55…..Nuggs 49
December 5th, 20129:09 pm
you can count it anyway you please but when comparing the two seasons it is a half mil difference, thats how they will count it in the end when comparing payrolls between the two years
December 5th, 20129:11 pm
For all the talk about an Asdrubal Cabrera trade, one person involved said they’re no closer to deal than when they arrived at meetings.
While Myers may be “unproven” in terms of major league play, the kid cranked out 37 bombs in the minors this year and put up extremely good numbers across the board. Yes, he’s a prospect, but he’s the best prospect in all of baseball as far as I’m concerned. Medlen’s value will never be higher than it is now.
Now come on Mixxo — don;t jinx us. LOL.
I am still mad about that game vs the Cavs. That was unacceptable with a Capital U.
Tough weekend for ATL with the Dogs and Hawks. At least we can rely on the Falcons up to now.
I do expect one more Falcons loss and a 14-2 record. That is good enough for the one seed.
December 5th, 20129:12 pm
If Medlen flames out in a couple years, we’ll all look back at this as a missed opportunity.
Where’s Efrim and his breakdown of the Atlanta salary commitments when you need him??
December 5th, 20129:13 pm
without thinking twice I can name any number of “can’t miss” AAA players who did in fact totally bomb out, at least three or four from the Braves.
December 5th, 20129:15 pm
Trading a proven high-caliber starter (Medlen) for a prospect, however highly regarded, would be a poor move for a team that won 94 games last season.
December 5th, 20129:16 pm
you might, nobody with a feel for how real baseball works as opposed to fantasy baseball will,
how can you think something is a missed opportunity when you have no idea if it was an actual opportunity to begin with. There is no reason to believe that KC would take that deal at all.
And if Myers pulls a Marte we’ll be glad we passed on this oportunity.
Id probably do a Medlen for Myers swap… 3yrs of control vs. 6. And lets not forget, but just 12 starts ago, the dish on Meds was that he didnt have a good ERA as a starter… now he’s Reg Maddux. Id say it more likely that Myers plays like Heyward than Medlen becomes Maddux. Thats probably why I would do the deal. We are only losing a #3 starter this season, Beachy will be back in 14 and Graham and Delgado are top of the rotation starters potentially. We’d be fine. Myers fills a big need of ours cheaply, and for the next 6 years. We’d have one helluva core to build around.
Course, Id much rather trade Teheran or Minor, but I wouldnt say no to Medlen-Myers. Id consider it.
Yeah, and I can come up with a couple of pitchers that we grossly overvalued and ended up gaining little in return for them. Both JJ and Hanson could have netted us huge paydays in talent, but we chose to keep them. Of course, things didn’t pan out.
December 5th, 20129:18 pm
If we had traded those guys at their peak value… man, we would probably not be talking about picking up a LF right now.
Tim Wheeler cranked out 30 something bombs in the minors in 2011 and you saw how his power got curtailed last yr with 2 HRS and 37 RBI in AAA.
Yes, I do get he had a hand injury but he was the prospect of the hour last winter that everyone wanted.
Myers — He is a prospect . He could be anything between Brad Kommisk to Dale Murphy. No way I move Meds or Minor for any prospect.
Meds, Minor, Hudson, Malholm and Delgado — that is my rotation. I do not move any of em.
An FW might be the smart one to be stubborn in not wanting to move two prospect pitchers. He does have a way of not overpaying in trades.
Tell me one Wren trade he made in which you would come out and say “We gave up too much”, at the time the trade was made.
I am not talking about after the fact. So the Mc Louth and Uggla deals are off the table on this topic.
Maybe the Javy Vasquez deal I didn;t like but that was done for business reasons.
The Atlanta Braves payroll was $93.5 million in 2012. No one should argue that.
Right now, counting projected arbitration salaries, they have $75 million in 13 players – Uggla, Upton, McCann, Hudson, Prado, Maholm, O’Flaherty, Heyward, Medlen, Venters, Laird, Janish, and Martinez.
Try to toss around bonuses and incentives all you want, but unless payroll is being slashed, there is no reason whatsoever for them to fill the last few spots on the team with utility/platoon players. If that’s the case, then payroll went down and Wren should be questioned about that as Terry said it would go up slightly. At the very least, we didn’t hear it was going down.
December 5th, 20129:19 pm
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
If #Nationals trade Mike Morse they would probably want package to include a top lefty reliever.
December 5th, 20129:20 pm
Sporty – you’re right that Medlen’s value is about as high as it can get — unless, of course, he puts up great numbers in 2013. There are no doubt plenty of people who think that he’ll fall back down to earth, so I’m not sure that that’s not already priced in. In any case, if you’re going to take that route, you’d better get a proven ML player in return, not a prospect. It might be different if the Braves were in rebuilding mode, but they’re not – they’re in win-now mode (as they should be).
I wouldn’t want him pitching against us, though.
December 5th, 20129:22 pm
Oh yeah, and the Braves have $28.75 million in guaranteed contracts for 2014 – so it’s not like they can’t absorb any additional long term commitments. Few teams have the payroll flexibility that the Braves have.
sure there is always risk no matter what you do. You try to pick the choice with the most proven odds, but that doesn’t always work.
plus even though we think they should be totally dedicated to improving the club no matter what, GMs are human too and most will not have the cojones to put themselfs in high rish situations.
Myers bombs or is mediocre and Medlen does well would bring tremendous criticism to such a trade
Injuries had alot to do with the decline of JJ and Hanson.
JJ never did project well with the advanced numbers, for what they were worth. Some of it was that he is a guy who pitched to contact and did give up a fair amount of walks. So there were power type of pitchers who fared better with the BAIBP, WAR and some of those other numbers.
When he was healthy he won, gave you his share of innings and that is what counts.
He will get another chance somewhere but as a minor league contract.
Juan Francisco at Turner field, 2012, MLB:
.298/ .341/ .536/ .876
Juan Francisco at home games, DR winter ball, 2012
.360/ .441/ .520/ .961
Juan Francisco away games, DR winter ball, 2012
.271/ .286/ .604/ .890
Juan Francisco hitting while at 3B, versus as pinch hitter, 2012, MLB:
.265/ .296/ .497/ .792
Juan Francisco, leading off an inning, 2012, MLB:
.314/ .314/ .629/ .943
From this, we know
Juan LOVES to play at home, where ever that is.
Juan’s home field in the Dominican Republic is a hellaciously hard place to hit a HR.
Juan does not like to pinch hit.
Juan likes to hit with the bases empty, but NEVER walks with the bases empty. Never.
December 5th, 20129:23 pm
Very well said, in reference to the payroll situation. Basically what I have been trying to tell everyone here tonight.
I thought that was a great trade and it worked out as one too
Yessir, that Cavs game was totally unacceptable. Would have been 7 straight….but, fail.
December 5th, 20129:24 pm
Has there ever been a home/away platoon?
Seriously, Juan Fran’s home numbers are sort of good.
Talk about thinking outside the box.
December 5th, 20129:25 pm
With guaranteed contracts, projected Arb raises, and league minimum and plus players (i.e Kimbrel, Minor), the total is $83.0 mil.
Efrim — If that is where the Braves are on February 1, you are absolutely right.
Should have said
Juan likes to lead off an inning, but NEVER walks when leading off an inning. Never.
December 5th, 20129:26 pm
Juan Fran is totally awesome at home.
Thanks, Disgusted, I agree.
TOBF: How is Myers, who hasn’t played in the MLs, more likely to become Heyward than Medlen, who posted 138 innings @ 1.57 ERA in the bigs last season, Maddux? (Other than the obvious reason, which is that Maddux was a once-in-a-generation talent and Heyward is, to-date, merely pretty good to good). And it sounds like you rate Graham and Delgado higher? Both COULD be great players, and certainly I like the flashes I’ve seen out of Delgado, but — you’re basically suggesting that 3 guys, two of whom haven’t seen the inside of a ML clubhouse, are “can’t-miss” All-Stars. Not likely.
December 5th, 20129:27 pm
Yep, can’t get the bold to turn off. you put the b inside the little arrow thingys at the beginning and at the end, right?
December 5th, 20129:28 pm
I think Wil Myers had some sort of a knee problem at one time. But seriously, to look at his numbers last year (with over half the year at AAA), the dude is about as close to a sure thing as you can get in a prospect.
BUT, there’s always still a chance he could bomb.
I’d be tempted to offer up Medlen for him. But then again, it’s easier to do that deal from a keyboard than from a true GM’s desk.
we all know what the numbers are, we do not all believe every word out of the Braves mouth. Dave says 10 mil, at these prices that is a less than stellar starter a decent bench guy and a BP guy plus all the raises. none of us knows what will happen, but if they sign Swisher or some of the other mentioned players I will be totally amazed and that does not happen all that much
December 5th, 20129:29 pm
@nolie: Yeah, I see what you’re getting at.
December 5th, 20129:30 pm
Nate Schierholtz has agreed on 1 year deal with Cubs, source says
Juan never walks…. he hates OBP.
That second Javy trade was genius… a great trade. Would have been better If Melky actually tried, but…. That’s what wished Frank did with JJ, trick some team into overpaying for him. I was a bit worried about the injury history, thought waiting until this year would be too risky. We all know how that turned out. Surely we could have gotten at least 1 top prospect back for him
Nolie — the Vasquez deal did work in an indirect way in that they flipped Dunn as part of the Uggla deal and Vizcaino was flipped over in the Reed Johnson/Malholm deal.
Javy did not work well in NY and Yankee fans did not like it.
But Melky Cabrera — I never really liked him as a Yankee. He was not bad, sort of as averge player.
We know what he was here. I thought he was out of shape and sometimes looked lazy in the field.
And we sort of know why his game skyrockted after he left here. Silly Blue Jays. He is their problem now Cheater and he got caught.
you have to put a / in front of the second b Old Man or the second i if it is for italics
December 5th, 20129:31 pm
old man, don’t put that stuff in there…..to turn it “off.”
December 5th, 20129:32 pm
Juan Francisco, RISP, DR winter ball, 2012:
.364/.450/ .606/ 1.056
Regarding payroll. keep in mind the buzz words Wren keeps mentioning, even tonight on MLBN
The payroll will come in around $88.0 mil
December 5th, 20129:33 pm
How about moving Upton for Upton? (Had to throw that out there, c’mon!)
December 5th, 20129:34 pm
we got a very good year from Vazquez and he cost us almost nothing. that was one of the biggest negative reactions to a trade I ever remember here though cause Flowers had just had such a great AFL. so far he has done nothing in the MLB and Lillibridge is next to nothing and the young pitcher we included is in this winters Rule 5 draft
That RISP stat for Juan tells me his head is not completely us his @ss.
“How is Myers, who hasn’t played in the MLs, more likely to become Heyward than Medlen, who posted 138 innings @ 1.57 ERA in the bigs last season, Maddux? (Other than the obvious reason, which is that Maddux was a once-in-a-generation talent and Heyward is, to-date, merely pretty good to good).”
You sir answered your own question. lol
Zing — I do see Medlen being 80 to 85 percent of the pitcher Maddux was. That is pretty darned good.
He has to stay healthy. I do not think last yr was a total fluke but his numbers will come back to earth to some degree.
I do not ask him to be Maddux, but I do see a good solid 10 or so yrs left of being a solid number 2 or 3 MLB SP giving you the innings and starts.
Hugo Z Hackenbush
Bye bye Schierholtz, no Atlanta platoon for you!
December 5th, 20129:35 pm
OK. Test. OK?
I could really give a shyt what the actual numbers are concerning our projected payroll. I am basing my point (that the Braves have 1 more deal in them) on the fact that Frank Wren told Jim Bowden he had the resources to make a deal if the right deal presented itself.
Just not seeing him with a Reed Johnson/Nate Schierholtz platoon being the solution. There is a deal out there that will help us in the leadoff spot and be within our budget. Probably they have 5-6 contingencies. Of course, BOTH sides (the free agent and the other GM) have to be willing to make those deals happen, but I really think we are being premature in thinking that FW is done right now.
December 5th, 20129:36 pm
A good barometer of Braves spending will be to see what Schierholtz signed for with the Cubs. The Braves were reported to be after him also.
December 5th, 20129:37 pm
Nolie — The first Vazquez deal was great — no doubt.
It was the one with the NYY that almost no one liked but that was done for business reasons. But as we flipped Dunn and Vizcaino it could have been worse.
We stole him from CWS.
Dang. The little slashy thingy before the b inside the little arrow thingys actually worked!
Old man is totally awesome!
onliest problem is that it is a lot easier hitting in the Dominican than in MLB
12 starts ago, I believe Medlens career ERA as a starter was in the 4s… he’s a good pitcher, but not elite yet. Too soon. Myers is about as cant miss of a prospect as they come,profiling as a RH Heyward. We need that. Unless you are telling me Meds is the next Maddog, maybe you should trade him. We can get another currently #3 starter.
I see both Graham and Delgado as future #2s yes,they can both reach it reasonably and still have 6yrs of control. Medlen has just 3.
December 5th, 20129:38 pm
Crazy idea–trading Medlen for Myers. That is something a team would do, MAYBE, if it was rebuilding.
And even , then, almost certainly, NO—Medlen has several years before free agency.
December 5th, 20129:40 pm
Is there no chance the Braves are interested in re- signing Lyle Overbay? He’d be a decent pinchhitter off the bench.
They probably have cheaper options.
How about a David DeJesus option for LF? Decent salary and good OBP. Could lead off and play a decent LF.
December 5th, 20129:41 pm
It was the one with the NYY that almost no one liked …Disgusted
nope, the blog was in an uproar for 18 solid hours over the first one. I was one of only about three people who liked the deal and I spent hour after hour fighting negative responses and saying that Javi would be great in the Ted with Bobby as a coach.
If I knew how i”d link you back there to read all the anger at that trade
88 million in today’s game is a mediocre payroll and that might be generous.
Its getting into being a lower tiered payroll. Before long 88-92 mil will not even be in the top 20 out of 30 teams.
We can still win for now but as this payroll stays flat well — the handwriting is on the wall several yrs down the road.
How many more yrs that takes I don;t know. I say in 5 yrs we will not have a top 20 roll all things staying the same.
December 5th, 20129:42 pm
Overbay is garbage. End of story.
December 5th, 20129:43 pm
Shin Soo Choo is projected to make $6.9 million through arbitration. Ellsbury at $8.1 million. These two players + a couple of utility players should absolutely be within budget.
No one should be expecting Nick Swisher at this point. If anyone is, just look to Boston’s ridiculous contract with Victorino. Swisher is going to blow that away, and very well should if Shane is making 3/39.
Swish is looking for 14-15mil last i read DS1, no way do I believe the Braves will spend that
December 5th, 20129:44 pm
Still can’t believe Victorino got paid that. Insanity.
There are WAY too many potential LF options out there to mention. Not all are ideal, but most of them are a helluva lot better than an inhouse option.
Not saying we can’t hope for the best with Gattis and Juan Gone. We always hope our internal guys kicks azz. But we just don’t count on em.
Dinner time folks…………….
When I get back here, I want to see that you folks have gotten all this stuff figgered out…….. dammit!
Overbay had an ok career but I think he is getting done. He sure did not look good at all after we got him
December 5th, 20129:45 pm
TOBF: So, Medlen has to be Maddux in order for him to be worth keeping? Setting a bit of a high standard aren’t we? I mean, if the wager is whether he’ll be Maddux or Myers will be a serviceable OF, okay, odds are on Myers. But that’s kind of silly.
I don’t know what the numbers were exactly, though I remember reading that if you took out his first few starts as a rookie, he was mid-3s in ERA prior to 2012. Half his games started at this point took place in 2012, though, at that sparkling ERA. I just think he’s pretty clearly a high quality SP at this point, and you don’t trade that kind of asset away.
At least, not for a prospect, unless you’re rebuilding in a major way.
December 5th, 20129:46 pm
Wren must be looking for dumpsters to dive into at the Gaylord Opryland Hotel…
nor do I nolie (Swisher, that is)
If Wren settles for Juan Francisco and Reed Johnson + Martin Prado in LF/3B – then he should be blamed for it unless we hear payroll is being slashed….which would be strange to hear in December.
right , for the most part it is a deal done at trading deadline by a team that is rebuilding.
Cubs To Sign Nate Schierholtz problem solved.
December 5th, 20129:47 pm
Overbay recorded what, like 3 hits total for the Braves? He would march into the box and just start hacking, no game plan whatsoever.
I was not on the blog at that time the deal with the CWS was made for Vazquez — I would have been in favor of it.
That goes to my basic theory is that most fans overrate their favorite team’s prospects. It happens with fan discussion, and other baseball blogs.
Cause we gave nothing for him in that CWS deal.
I do see some fans overrating other team’s prospects — look at the Will Myers chasers. Last yr it was Tim Wheeler. And next winter there will be a new flavor of the season. It happens.
Not knocking Myers, I just do not wnt to give up proven pitching for him. Not now
nolie, agreed, but his overall .932 OPS is third in the entire league down there, and there are some pretty decent people pitching. AA+ or AAA level wouldn’t you say, with a smattering of guys who will be in an MLB rotation for at least a cup of coffee in 2013? Wil Myers’ OPS in AAA ball last year was .932, and he’s not chopped liver either.
I agree questions remain. Perhaps we can say that so far he has not hurt his situation one bit this winter, especially if he really is staying in better shape physically. We need to keep an eye on him.
This blog has the longest delay EVER.
December 5th, 20129:48 pm
Incidentally… remember all the hype around Hanson, and then the Braves brought up *Medlen* first? How everybody howled and said it was a stunt to keep the arb clock from starting on Hanson until June? Seems kind of ironic now, doesn’t it. Or sad…
settling might not be the right word, it takes too to tango and often the best trades turn out to be the ones that were not made. I’m sure Frank would like another big player. I hope he gets one. I’m not saying it absolutely will not happen, just that I am skeptical
December 5th, 20129:49 pm
Schierholtz got a 1yr deal at $2.25 mil plus $500k in incentives.He made $1.3 mil last season
Welcome to Free Agency version 2012
December 5th, 20129:50 pm
Efrim, I’d rather have that scenario than a panicky move. Doing something for the sake of doing it doesn’t usually track well.
Wrenn was asked specifically. Do you have the funds to pursue someone like Swisher? Wrenn said sure we do!
Swisher is overrated. He benefited from all those big bats surrounding him in the lineup, and the short porch at Yankee Stadium.
December 5th, 20129:51 pm
There will be a few players who fall through the cracks at the end of the FA period and you can get a bargain value sign for someone who has bee half decent late in January early Feb.
Could Ryan Ludwick be one of those guys. Inconsistent, yes, but he is comming off a decent yr. He is better than a straight platoon guy.
Hey I have nothing personal against Francisco, I hate hitters with low OBP no matter how much power. If he can play and stop making outs over 70% of the time I have nothing against it. The thing is that not all that many players are able to change their approach in that regard.
Outs are precious little dearies, not to waste them…..
If the Braves pick up Swisher, mark my words, he or BJ will be moved in 2014, barring some incredible re-negotiation of the tv contract.
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