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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
6,190 comments Add your comment
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
9:05 am
Another option would be to keep Prado in left and try Juan Francisco at third. Sounds like a stretch, but Francisco, 25, is going off in the Dominican winter league, displaying monster power.
Do we want the Braves to set a record for team strikeouts?
flange1
November 29th, 2012
9:05 am
I have mixed feelings about the Upton signing.
I do feel the guy has value, look at WAR and other metrics, they show his value to be equal to or greater than Bourn or the other CF FA.
But he is not a direct replacement offensively for either Bourn or Chipper.
My old fashioned mind keeps trying to pound the square peg into the round hole!
I mean BJ can’t hit lead off right? And probably not clean up either right?
And I totally understand that line up construction is not that statistically significant.
This move makes the next move even more important. The team could go with a Span in LF and go the speed route or go Willingham in LF and go the power route.
Time to accept the trade, pull for BJ to be a great Brave and hope FW has a great idea for LF.
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
9:11 am
Victorino?
He looked totally cooked last year to me, but, yeah, somebody like that on a shorter deal, maybe. Give themselves time to see if Simmons can become a top-of-the-order hitter, see if Gattis proves out at AAA, like that. Either or both occur, even if the acquisition busts, they’re ahead of the game.
I think they’d really like to see Gattis come on, so that they have a little more flexibility on the McCann decision next year.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
9:11 am
Haha Jeff… Strikeouts must be overrated to the Braves FO, just like OBP
Found this on Laird… He frames pitches better than any other catcher I’ve ever seen in Detroit and has a cannon for an arm. I don’t remember a bad throw he made to second base all year. If his pitchers could hold runners (which none of them can), his CS% of 19% last year would be more like the 35% he holds for his career.
BraveDan
November 29th, 2012
9:13 am
Interesting day; one down, one to go. Sweet!
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
9:14 am
I don’t want to automatically rule out a player because of the park they play in… I’m sure he could hit here just as well, it’s not like Coors where the atmosphere plays a big role.
Okay, so a disregard for OPS+. Couldn’t disagree more. Young has had two seasons as an above average hitter and has never had a great offensive season. Not the player BJ is.
abeeeewright
November 29th, 2012
9:14 am
So I see that the Brave have fixed CF for the next half decade. Bourn was nice for 1.5 years, but he was not likely to stick around for just two more years (which might be the start of his decline).
No worries about continuing the merry band of scrubs the Braves have run out their since Andruw’s decline and departure.
With circa $10M left to spend, hope Wren works his magic to get a banger fo LF.
Although, it would be terrific to read that San Diego had sold Headley’s contract fo $10M and a PTBNL. Have to check SD’s GM’s wine glass for roofies after that late night chat he had with Smilin’ Frank.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 29th, 2012
9:16 am
TOBF
C’mon dude are you really going to keep bashing the guy for the rest of the offseason? We get it you’re not a fan if the signing but it’s too late Bossman is a Brave. Trust Wren and his staff, support your team, and maybe, just maybe, Upton will surprise you and give us his best seasons as a Brave. He has the skill and is entering his prime, all positive signs that it could happen and my bet is it will.
Does anyone know what time press conference is today? I have the day off and would finally like to watch one live.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
9:21 am
Robby Spurlin @RobbySpurlin
@mlbbowman any chance of extending Mac to spread salary, gain room?
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman
@RobbySpurlin No. It remains safe to assume 2013 will be McCann’s last in Atlanta.
Yeah, I could see that. Still hoping for a really strong offensive year for McCann and then at the very least a qualifying offer next November.
A dream of mine that will most likely never come true – 2 Top 40 draft picks for the Atlanta Braves.
Sigh…..
TennesseePaul
November 29th, 2012
9:21 am
what he offered: defense, power, some OBP
“Some OBP”… It used to be four years of an OBP of .316 was a red flag. For some reason BJ has that entire theory boomeranging. And it used to be, not very long ago, that only “traditionalists” would talk up HR and SB with a .316 OBP as a positive.
The CF market sucked this year. There were/are a lot of players with problems and all of them are seeking outsized contracts for what they offer. I get that. Perhaps BJ is the best option for this team in this market. But I highly doubt his having “security” for 5 years is going to suddenly reverse him back to what he was over half a decade ago. I’m apparently of a dying breed. “Potential,” in my view, is not a justification for signing a 6 year veteran to a multi-year deal.
I am curious though, how many other 6+ year veteran free agents have been signed under the promise of their “potential”?
Anyway, this team needs something even better in LF or at 3B if it is going to make up for the loss of Chipper.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
9:21 am
He looked totally cooked last year to me, but, yeah, somebody like that on a shorter deal, maybe. Give themselves time to see if Simmons can become a top-of-the-order hitter, see if Gattis proves out at AAA, like that. Either or both occur, even if the acquisition busts, they’re ahead of the game.
I think they’d really like to see Gattis come on, so that they have a little more flexibility on the McCann decision next year.
Another heavy lumber guy? it works if Upton, Uggla, and Gattis (let’s add Heyward, though I think he’ll reduce his Ks as he continues to develop) are all in their grooves. But, wow, if these guys are in dry spells together that leaves little room for error from Braves’ pitchers.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
9:21 am
What would it take to get Gyorko… blocked 3B in San Diego. They’ve got a 1B and 2B already, no where to move him to
TennesseePaul
November 29th, 2012
9:23 am
A dream of mine that will most likely never come true – 2 Top 40 draft picks for the Atlanta Braves.
Probably best for your own health Ef. They’d get those 2 picks and then, as you gleefully watch the MLB network to see how they use them, the Braves select a college reliever and polished lefty, skipping over two high school positional players with big bats.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
9:25 am
Interested to see how the contract is structured for Upton. Braves usually don’t front load or back load contracts – so I’d expect to see a straight $15.05 million 2013-2017.
Not what I’d do though….. 13: $17M, 14: $17M, 15: $13.75M, 16: $13.75M, 17: $13.75M
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
9:25 am
Gattis has struck out every 6 PAs for his career…. every 7 this season.
Believe the presser is at 2pm EST
A dream of mine that will most likely never come true – 2 Top 40 draft picks for the Atlanta Braves.
Maybe if Mac and Prado walk…. and Frank only signs one player who costs us a pick.
Next up are some Hanson rumors, I guess.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
9:27 am
Haha Jeff… Strikeouts must be overrated to the Braves FO, just like OBP
I guess, TheOnlyBravesFan. I don’t want to knock Wren for signing Upton. He’s operating in Realville versus the rest of us who get to operate in Virtual World. But the Braves’ offense is looking like a lot more of the same in 2013 (feast or famine and poor RISP) with the added concern of not having a proven lead-off hitter. And I know Prado can step in there and that Wren may solve that otherwise through a FA signing or a deal at the winter meetings.
But right now, the Braves are shaping up to be a lot more lumber than lightening.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
9:28 am
TP at 9:21: Spot on.
I’m apparently of a dying breed. “Potential,” in my view, is not a justification for signing a 6 year veteran to a multi-year deal.
At this price and loss of the pick. You aren’t alone.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
9:29 am
“Another heavy lumber guy? it works if Upton, Uggla, and Gattis (let’s add Heyward, though I think he’ll reduce his Ks as he continues to develop) are all in their grooves. But, wow, if these guys are in dry spells together that leaves little room for error from Braves’ pitchers.”
Didn’t mean to put my response to scoots in italics.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
9:29 am
Probably best for your own health Ef. They’d get those 2 picks and then, as you gleefully watch the MLB network to see how they use them, the Braves select a college reliever and polished lefty, skipping over two high school positional players with big bats.
So true. And yet, so friggin sad.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
9:33 am
2007-2008 – Tom Glavine
2008-2009 – Derek Lowe
2009-2010 – Billy Wagner
2012-2013 – B.J. Upton
First Round selections we kept: Mike Minor, Sean Gilmartin and Lucas Sims.
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
9:33 am
But, wow, if these guys are in dry spells together that leaves little room for error from Braves’ pitchers.
Well, yeah. I think pretty much any lineup in MLB with four middle-order bats in a slump is gonna be a little toasty, not just the Braves.
Slumps don’t kill your offense, lengthy slumps do. The biggest difference in good hitters and mediocre hitters is how much more quickly the former can find what’s wrong and fix it. I don’t doubt the possibility that a number of these hitters might all go bad at once, but all go bad at once for the same month or two? I have a harder time seeing that.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 29th, 2012
9:39 am
Honestly is there any “sure thing” in sports today? Even the best hitter in the game had a bad year for him. I know it’s still a pretty good year for a regular player but for the $ Pujols signed for it wasn’t worth the value of his contract overall.
TennesseePaul
November 29th, 2012
9:40 am
so I’d expect to see a straight $15.05 million 2013-2017.
I could see the quarter or more being a signing bonus and then a flat rate.
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
9:40 am
But right now, the Braves are shaping up to be a lot more lumber than lightening.
Cool! Trot-speed is my idea of “quick”, LOL.
Boom! goes Heyward. Bang! goes Freeman. Whack! goes Uggla. Wham! goes McCann. Thump! goes Upton.
One inning of scoring, 5-2 win.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
9:40 am
Probably best for your own health Ef. They’d get those 2 picks and then, as you gleefully watch the MLB network to see how they use them, the Braves select a college reliever and polished lefty, skipping over two high school positional players with big bats.
First, I’m not certain that Wren continues to target college pitchers in the draft. I think he’s wanted to accelerate the pitching pipeline to fill holes and get the Braves competitive faster for cheaper cost (and Minor seems on the right track, so his pick pretty good. We’ll see about Gilmartin).
Second, I don’t think its a bad strategy to load up on pitching. Talented pitchers are tougher to come by than talented position players, IMO. Stock up with enough talented young arms, then any number of deals is possible for position players (or if budget allows, signing position players via free agency).
I don’t know what Wren will do with Teheran, Delgado, Spruill, Graham, or even Gilmartin, but I think most or all will be the subject of inquiries at the winter meetings and beyond.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
9:42 am
So does BJ Upton only having 9 months in the last 24 (4 seasons) w/ an OPS above .750 count as lengthy slumps? He’s also had a 3month stretch where his OPS is under .750 each of the last 3 seasons. Comes during May-August. Bookends those stretches with OPS’ of at least .770.
TennesseePaul
November 29th, 2012
9:43 am
One inning of scoring, 5-2 win
Then famine for the rest of the week… then Kaboom! another monster scoring game… then famine for another week. Blasto! Another monster scoring game…
By seasons end we should be able to enjoy a decent run-differential as Wren does his prep-work for the following season while watching other teams play in the post season.
richbrave
November 29th, 2012
9:45 am
“….Interesting. If they aren’t going the trade route and possibly signing a player like Victorino, then handing the job to Randall Delgado or Julio Teheran makes a lot of sense….” Efrim
TEHERAN has had a decent, and then a superb outing back-to-back down south.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
9:46 am
One inning of scoring, then 10+ Ks from that crew the rest of the night!
phil
November 29th, 2012
9:46 am
I wish we would just sign someone and get it over with.,,
This waiting around is killing me.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
9:47 am
Talented pitchers are tougher to come by than talented position players, IMO.
I’m just not sure I agree with this. Having a lopsided system isn’t good. They have done a terrible job at drafting and developing hitters since the 2008 draft and international signing period with plenty of teams doing much, much more in that timeframe. They need to focus a bit more there, because they are not matched up well with other teams that are in need for position player prospects or want that as part of the haul. Pushing Nick Ahmed in trade talks can only get you so far.
richbrave
November 29th, 2012
9:47 am
Jeff R:
You might add RHSP LUCAS SIMS into that prospect pipeline, although for my money, I like LHSP ALEX WOOD better.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
9:48 am
But gotta say, that seems to be what our offense did this year. When they scored, it was in bunches. Then, they’d decide to not score for a few days… so frustrating. BJ just adds to that, not a consistent hitter.
Wonder if Swisher gets more than 15… he’s more consistent. 4/63
richbrave
November 29th, 2012
9:49 am
phil
November 29th, 2012
9:46 am
“….I wish we would just sign someone and get it over with.,,
This waiting around is killing me…..”
Oh phil, you say the nicest things!
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
9:50 am
Slumps don’t kill your offense, lengthy slumps do. The biggest difference in good hitters and mediocre hitters is how much more quickly the former can find what’s wrong and fix it. I don’t doubt the possibility that a number of these hitters might all go bad at once, but all go bad at once for the same month or two? I have a harder time seeing that.
scoots, that sort, kinda happened back in ‘11, didn’t it? Big time team slump then. Not quite the issue in ‘12, though. Probability of extended slumps by multiple players in ‘13: closer to 50-50 than we might suspect.
Upton and Uggla could be a perfect storm: either stroking the ball together or automatic outs at any – long – stretch in the season.
I think the Braves’ problems last season were getting runners on then getting those runners to score. Did the Upton signing address those issues? Not sure they did.
Again, I would hope that Upton adjusts his game a bit. I wouldn’t mind seeing him reduce his homers and up his singles and doubles. Singles and doubles drive in runs, too.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
9:51 am
Not really mad about the player selection or the contract for Upton. Just heated about the trend of giving up draft picks.
P-Town Brave ©
November 29th, 2012
9:52 am
TOBF-
And Swisher would then go 0 for 20 in the playoffs…..
Just stop it…..STOP IT!!
As I said on Twitter, we ALL know you don’t like BJ……everyone gets it at this point….
Is there really any sense in continuing to beat that drum?! You’re starting to get to Energizer bunny levels…..and this coming from someone who likes conversing w/ you
DAP
November 29th, 2012
9:53 am
jeff r But right now, the Braves are shaping up to be a lot more lumber than lightening
i dont think so. actually, with who we currently have, i only see one issue with the offense. that is that all of our biggest threats are lefthanded. most of the time that wont really be a problem, anyways. if you dismiss handedness, a lineup that includes heyward, freeman, mccann, uggla, prado, upton and simmons is actually a pretty exciting group. you have power, contact and speed. when you have to actually put them in an order it gets a little challenging, but it will work.
richbrave
November 29th, 2012
9:53 am
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
9:47 am
Talented pitchers are tougher to come by than talented position players, IMO.
“…….I’m just not sure I agree with this. Having a lopsided system isn’t good. They have done a terrible job at drafting and developing hitters since the 2008 draft and international signing period with plenty of teams doing much, much more in that timeframe. They need to focus a bit more there, because they are not matched up well with other teams that are in need for position player prospects or want that as part of the haul. Pushing Nick Ahmed in trade talks can only get you so far…….”
I’m not disagreeing with you here. I feel the same way, but I do think the slotting in the new CBA will help in that regard at least with U.S. players. Not sure of the rules changes around the rest of the world, if any changes at all.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
9:54 am
You might add RHSP LUCAS SIMS into that prospect pipeline, although for my money, I like LHSP ALEX WOOD better.
Yes, sir. Two pretty good prospects.
mrnatural
November 29th, 2012
9:56 am
I like the Upton signing for all the obvious reasons – RH power, competent center fielder, speed. We really don’t know what was going down in the Rays handling of Upton that affected his OBP. Without much protection in the lineup he may have been asked to step out of his comfort zone and amp up his power at the expense of his OBP for example. Anyways I would be comfortable starting Reid Johnson or Jordan Scheafer in left. Good opportunity for either to be Bourn’s lead-off replacement. Use Francisco in Henski’s role and see how that works. Gives FW a chance to gauge whether or not Simmons could develop into a lead-off type hitter. If all fails they still have the cash and young starting pitcher trade pieces to go after a LF/lead-off guy mid season. Multiple options, no need to rush.
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
9:56 am
By seasons end we should be able to enjoy a decent run-differential as Wren does his prep-work for the following season while watching other teams play in the post season.
I think I’ll disagree with you on this.
When they scored, it was in bunches. Then, they’d decide to not score for a few days
This was actually not the case, until the last six weeks or so of the season. The team scored 4 or more runs per game at about the same rate as the Texas Rangers for much of the season, over 60%. I don’t remember anyone here labeling the Rangers’ offense as “inconsistent”.
richbrave
November 29th, 2012
9:57 am
Can’t wait for B.J.’s 100th AB as a BRAVE, so I can pass judgement on this latest FA get of WREN’s.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
9:58 am
Much like the 2011 trade deadline, Frank is, for lack of a better phrase, fixing the wrong problem. Back then, we needed a guy to drive in runs. We were already getting runners on, we just couldn’t drive them in. Getting a .300 hitter to put in the 3hole (Pence) would have fixed that. Instead, he got a leadoff hitter.
This year, we need a consistent hitter to slot in the lineup, and them having power is a plus. Instead, we get another extremely streaky guy. Can’t Uggla, Freeman, Heyward, and Mac provide us with enough? Uggla, Freeman, and Mac are good for 20-25 and Hey’s gonna go past 30. I don’t see why we necessarily need another 30HR guy, especially if they’re not a good hitter. .240/.315 isn’t really what we need. The .270/.370 we could have gotten from Swisher may have been better. Sell the farm for Upton, Myers, Willingham… someone.
Just my opinion, but we added a guy who isn’t as good a hitter as Freeman or Heyward, and I’d put Mac/Uggla just ahead of him when they’re right.
P-Town Brave ©
November 29th, 2012
10:00 am
BFC28-
Not sure if you’re around but I was curious what you think about the deal….
Saw your commentary about wrestling and the Iron Sheik last night….good stuff and I saw the tweet too….
That said, Disgusted obviously is just generalizing about wrestling, bc he hasn’t heard why some of us are pretty disinterested in the product lately…..
FWIW Disgusted, WWE has catered to the preteen audience for the last 7-8 years now and that is apparently their target demo at this point…..which to some of us is wrenching because not only have they pushed away from the ratings driven and newsworthy Attitude Era in the late 90’s, BUT Vince all of a sudden decided he didn’t want anyone with prior wrestling knowledge or affiliation on the creative writing staffs and thus he starts hiring people out of Hollywood for those jobs….
Thus the predicament they have found themselves in now with cheesy stories that cater to the younger fanbase….
I still watch but in a sense, I have something to complain about every single week…..
That said, someone explained it PERFECTLY a week ago and it hit me and I was like….wow, they’re right….
The statement was that if you have watched for a long time, you find that wrestling is never as good to someone as it was when they first started watching…..you keep reminiscing about what was good then and what isn’t now….but the ideal spot is to realize that everything changes over time and nothing will ever really be as good as it once was in your mind….
Okay enough of my commentary there…
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
10:02 am
I’m just not sure I agree with this. Having a lopsided system isn’t good. They have done a terrible job at drafting and developing hitters since the 2008 draft and international signing period with plenty of teams doing much, much more in that timeframe. They need to focus a bit more there, because they are not matched up well with other teams that are in need for position player prospects or want that as part of the haul. Pushing Nick Ahmed in trade talks can only get you so far.
I think the axiom the Braves are going by is that a team never has enough good pitching. And I think with pitching more in demand, and with the Braves’ ability – limited by budget, of course – to sign FA position players, Wren and company are making a very deliberate strategic decision based on priority and value.
Also, the Braves have produced five position players in their lineup: McCann, Simmons, Prado, Heyward, and Freeman. All quality players.
As I’ve written before, too, there are always prospects that never make anyone’s “tops” list that turnout to be solid major leaguers (Prado is one; Simmons wasn’t hitting the radar initially).
A guy like Ahmed seems to be a comer. Cunningham is showing some good potential. And let’s not forget the ever-controversial Bethancourt (on the blog, that is)!
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
10:02 am
that sort, kinda happened back in ‘11, didn’t it? Big time team slump then. Not quite the issue in ‘12, though. Probability of extended slumps by multiple players in ‘13: closer to 50-50 than we might suspect.
Not as much lineup depth in 2011 as 2012, and 2013 should see an even deeper lineup (assuming health). I know it’s hard to see past Uggla’s underperformance, McCann’s health, and Upton’s history, though.
richbrave
November 29th, 2012
10:04 am
Noting silence from both sides where REED JOHNSON is concerned. Was the SCHAFER get a power move on JOHNSON to get him to sign for less, or maybe a fail-safe if he leaves? Inquiring minds want to knpw.
Have seen a blip regarding DURBIN in that negotiations are on with the BRAVES and others for his services next year.
wheelz007
November 29th, 2012
10:05 am
I think we over-payed here, but we’ve added another 20 homer guy with speed to our line-up. A solid RH bat.
Prado, Heyward, Upton, Freeman, Uggla and a healthy McCann make for a dangerous lineup.
Let’s see what Wren does next. I’m guessing he trades for a speedy left fielder that can bat lead off.
Again, I feel like we’re spending too much on this 1 player, but I like the addition.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
10:05 am
Not as much lineup depth in 2011 as 2012, and 2013 should see an even deeper lineup (assuming health). I know it’s hard to see past Uggla’s underperformance, McCann’s health, and Upton’s history, though.
That’s my hope: Uggla hitting his norm (pre-Braves); Upton making adjustments and developing into the outstanding hitter he’s been projected as; McCann having a solid contract year.
P-Town Brave ©
November 29th, 2012
10:05 am
Richbrave -
Glad to see you’re at least reserving judgment for a few ABs on BJ…..
Its amazing the arm chair QBing that is going on right now….
At least let the guy play a little bit before you throw him under the bus
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
10:08 am
i dont think so. actually, with who we currently have, i only see one issue with the offense. that is that all of our biggest threats are lefthanded. most of the time that wont really be a problem, anyways. if you dismiss handedness, a lineup that includes heyward, freeman, mccann, uggla, prado, upton and simmons is actually a pretty exciting group. you have power, contact and speed. when you have to actually put them in an order it gets a little challenging, but it will work.
Yes, if these guys all do well, it could be. But there are legit questions about Uggla, Upton, McCann, and Simmons going into ‘13. I say Simmons cause pitchers saw him some in ‘12 and should have a book on the kid in ‘13. Does he make adjustments quickly enough or…?
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
10:10 am
That’s my hope: Uggla hitting his norm (pre-Braves); Upton making adjustments and developing into the outstanding hitter he’s been projected as; McCann having a solid contract year.
I’d settle for about two-and-a-half of those, if Heyward and Freeman progress. With Medlen winning 30 games, I’d think it’s the WS for sure.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
10:16 am
Buster Olney
On Aug. 10 of the 2012 season, B.J. Upton had 10 homers, to go along with a .298 on-base percentage. At that trajectory, he was on pace for a season of 15 homers, 155 strikeouts, a .378 slugging percentage, 30 stolen bases. It wasn’t long after that that a long-time general manager guessed that Upton’s deal in free agency would be for about two years and $16 million.
But Upton smashed two homers on Aug. 11, in the Rays’ 112th game, and over Tampa Bay’s last 50 games he clubbed 18 homers. There’s no way of knowing precisely what that burst of power did for Upton’s value in the market, but it’s probably safe to say that the rush of offense seemed to help significantly.
And by Thursday evening, we should see Upton standing on a podium, wearing a Braves jersey, having made the deal of a lifetime — five years, $75.25 million, with the help of his highly respected agent, Larry Reynolds. Upton was the youngest of the center fielders on the market, at age 28, and the Braves stay young with this. Their lineup could look something like this by mid-May, after Brian McCann comes back from shoulder surgery:
POS Player (Age)
CF B.J. Upton (28)
3B Martin Prado (29)
RF Jason Heyward (23)
1B Freddie Freeman (23)
2B Dan Uggla (32)
C Brian McCann (29)
LF ?
SS Andrelton Simmons (23)
The Braves had the best defensive center fielder in the majors in Michael Bourn, and Upton has been viewed as a plus at his position, as well, something you need in spacious Turner Field.
Atlanta signed Upton to the biggest free-agent contract in its history in spite of a lot of numbers and concerns that have been red-flagged in other organizations.
1. His declining on-base percentage, which has dropped almost 100 points over the last six seasons.
2007: .386
2008: .383
2009: .313
2010: .322
2011: .331
2012: .298
2. The strikeouts. Upton has racked up 934 over his last six seasons, in part because of his acute struggles against power pitchers. If you use the definition provided by Baseball-reference.com — the top third of the pitchers in the league in strikeouts plus walks — Upton hit .168 against power pitchers last year, with no homers in 121 plate appearances. After Wednesday’s signing, rival evaluators mused over Fredi Gonzalez’s challenge of trying to place Dan Uggla and Upton in the same lineup, given that Uggla is a very similar hitter to Upton — streaky, with a lot of strikeouts.
3. His declining defensive metrics. There is no perfect measure of defense, but FanGraph’s UZR/150 evaluation of Upton is right in line with more advanced metrics used by individual teams.
2007: 7.0
2008: 8.4
2009: 7.5
2010: 1.9
2011: 1.6
2012: -3.2
To repeat: Defensive metrics are tricky, and it may well be that the Braves had a much stronger evaluation of Upton.
4. The peaks and the valleys. His offense comes in bursts, and rival scouts have thought for years that Upton tends to get down on himself. In recent years, the Rays were open to listening to offers for Upton, as he got more expensive, and no team — not the Braves, not some other club — aggressively moved on him.
This whopper investment by Atlanta seems incongruous with how the industry has viewed Upton in recent seasons, and you wonder if the Braves might’ve been better off chasing Chris Young — who was acquired by Oakland from Arizona a few weeks ago — in a deal earlier this offseason. His age (29) and production has been very similar to that of Upton, he’s regarded as a better defensive outfielder, and — most importantly — he’s owed just $10 million over the next year, with an $8.5 million salary in 2013 and a $1.5 million buyout on an $11 million option for 2014. The Braves probably would have been better off overpaying in a trade for Young rather than assuming the risk of the massive deal with Upton.
But the opinions on Upton are scattered, and an NL evaluator offered a different perspective.
“He is the most talented player in the free agent market and somebody I think will age well,” the evaluator said. “He is continuing to improve. Most free agent signings pay players for what they have done, but when you sign Upton, it’s about what he will do.
“On top of that, things in the market are changing. Jonny Gomes just got a multi-year deal with an average annual value of $5 million, while setup guys like Brandon League and Jeremy Affeldt are getting paid between $6-8 million per year. Baseball just signed a new labor deal last year and got a lot of TV money this year. There was value in the Braves striking early, before the market really took hold, because some of these contracts may get out of hand.”
The Braves don’t have a lot of outfield depth in their farm system, and they will now look to fill their left field position. Dexter Fowler could be an option as a trade target, just as Denard Span could be. They could also look to sign Shane Victorino, writes David O’Brien, although it’s hard to imagine that Victorino will get anything less than three years and $27 million, given the financial shift in the sport.
Upton’s Twitter account had an avatar change to a Braves logo, as Marc Topkin writes.
• The dominoes from the Upton signing will naturally fall toward Philadelphia now, because the Phillies were in on Upton. Now their options have shrunk, and given Upton’s deal, Michael Bourn has a stronger position to ask for more, and Angel Pagan can reasonably expect a four-year deal for something in the range of $45 million-$50 million. Victorino is still on the market, as is Josh Hamilton.
The Phillies’ search continues, writes Bob Brookover. Upton’s signing may be a blessing in disguise for the Phillies, writes David Murphy.
richbrave
November 29th, 2012
10:16 am
TOBF:
I would think if we ’sell the farm’ for MYERS, WILLINGHAM et.al. we really screw the pooch. With money a big, BIG, object considering the overall revenue stream vs. competitors, FA is not the only avenue you want to have to annually construct your club. Just my personal opinion of course. ZI would thnk you need both.
I’m also assuming since we just lost our first pick, we go for some positions in this next draft unless a hot BRAVES arm prospect falls to them thru luck in the draft.
And I’m wondering if the top two rounds going to pitchers was in the back of WREN’s mind last year when he picked pitching over positions.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
10:17 am
With Medlen winning 30 games, I’d think it’s the WS for sure.
Glad to see you’re on the Medlen bandwagon now, scoots.
Murph
November 29th, 2012
10:18 am
1B ERNESTO MEJIA [.346 BA] 3-4, 1 2B [6], 1 RBI [29].
.296/.347/.502/.849
24 HR
32 2B
92 RBI
How is this guy not coming up in conversations? He just hits and hits and hits
David O'Brien
November 29th, 2012
10:20 am
Upton press conference to be carried live at 2 p.m. on 680 The Fan and online at 680thefan.com
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
10:22 am
POS Player (Age)
CF B.J. Upton (28)
3B Martin Prado (29)
RF Jason Heyward (23)
1B Freddie Freeman (23)
2B Dan Uggla (32)
C Brian McCann (29)
LF ?
SS Andrelton Simmons (23)
Average age of starting lineup without LF filled: 26.7
monty
November 29th, 2012
10:22 am
As Chipper used to say,” the team goes well if the top 2 hitters are getting on base”(or something to that effect). We still need a good table setter ahead of Prado to be a team that can challenge for the division.JMHO. CHipper might know a thing or two. We just replaced the loss of Chipper’s production, now it’s time to recoup Bourns.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
10:22 am
Upton has racked up 934 over his last six seasons, in part because of his acute struggles against power pitchers.
Gio Gonzalez, Strasburg, Zimmerman, Hamels, Dickey, Santana, Gee, Lee…
Murph
November 29th, 2012
10:24 am
DOB, you have some insight into what the club thinks about players in the system… what is their plan with Mejia? He originally came into the organization as an OF… any chance they could try and move him back out there? If not, are they going to try and package him up with someone else in a trade?
Seems like he’s got the best bat in the Braves’ minor league system, but nobody ever talks about him. Ever.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
10:24 am
Gio Gonzalez, Strasburg, Zimmerman, Hamels, Dickey, Santana, Gee, Lee…
You’re not gonna have an obsession over this like Hanson…..or Bourjos……or a lot of other things, right?
CB
November 29th, 2012
10:27 am
Murph,I believe Mejia will replace Hinske as our top pinch hitter. They need to go cheap in some areas and he might be a surprise.
monty
November 29th, 2012
10:27 am
Murph- “How is this guy not coming up in conversations”
My sentiments too. I’m sure someone will point out he has lead feet or hands of stone or something. Only explanation I can come up with.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
10:27 am
nope
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
10:28 am
For me, Buster kinda shreds his cred on the Upton issue when he presents Chris Young as an alternative, and slots Upton at leadoff.
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
10:30 am
You’re not gonna have an obsession over this like Hanson…..or Bourjos……or a lot of other things, right?
Only 70-odd days until PCR. Maybe we can live with it for that long.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
10:33 am
For me, Buster kinda shreds his cred on the Upton issue when he presents Chris Young as an alternative, and slots Upton at leadoff.
Chris Young, especially. With his 95 OPS+ career line with two seasons above a 100, at 103 and 108. And again, there was obviously some concern about the lack of CF options in the minor leagues. They are not considering 2010 draft picks Todd Cunningham and/or Matt Lipka everyday players, imo.
On the leadoff thing, would not shock me if Fredi hit him there. Would shock me to see him hit 7th. He’s gonna hit 1-6, I think.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
10:34 am
We have about 12-15mil left to spend now, right?
Murph
November 29th, 2012
10:36 am
We have about 12-15mil left to spend now, right?
Not enough for Greinke…… sorry.
DAP
November 29th, 2012
10:36 am
im gonna get picked on for this probably, but im throwing it out there anyways. juan pierre has not stopped getting on base his entire career. last year he put up a .351 OBP. career mark at .347.plays decent defense in LF. just saying.
we probably have the payroll space to do a little better, but i dont think he is a bad player, or a bad option based on what we have left to accomplish.
DAP
November 29th, 2012
10:39 am
TOBF dickey, gee and santana arent power pitchers. the other guys certainly are though.
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
10:39 am
Heyward against power pitchers .250, Freeman against power pitchers .140, not as if most hitters don’t perform more poorly against the best pitchers in the league. Cherry-picking there, a little.
David O'Brien
November 29th, 2012
10:40 am
Good stat from Buster in his ESPN.com column today: Upton has racked up 934 over his last six seasons, in part because of his acute struggles against power pitchers. If you use the definition provided by Baseball-reference.com — the top third of the pitchers in the league in strikeouts plus walks — Upton hit .168 against power pitchers last year, with no homers in 121 plate appearances. After Wednesday’s signing, rival evaluators mused over Fredi Gonzalez’s challenge of trying to place Dan Uggla and Upton in the same lineup, given that Uggla is a very similar hitter to Upton — streaky, with a lot of strikeouts.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
10:40 am
Noting silence from both sides where REED JOHNSON is concerned.
Silence may be a good thing, richbrave. Parties don’t negotiate in public or provide status reports on negotiations. Let’s hope so.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
10:40 am
8-12 it seems…. (depending on how Upton’s deal is done.) Hopefully it’s somewhat backloaded, like 11-12mil this season, then a flat 16mil after that. By my count, we’re currently set to be at 87.2 (w/out Hanson)
DAP
November 29th, 2012
10:42 am
murph what is their plan with Mejia? He originally came into the organization as an OF… any chance they could try and move him back out there? If not, are they going to try and package him up with someone else in a trade?
Seems like he’s got the best bat in the Braves’ minor league system, but nobody ever talks about him. Ever.
the blog your commenting on has a pretty good bit of info on ernesto meja. the short of it is he is a little old for a prospect, has always hit, but doesnt play any positions well, and the only place you can squeeze him in is at 1st. there isnt a place for him in atlanta. he is a DH.
P-Town Brave ©
November 29th, 2012
10:42 am
Tells you all you need to know about the idiocy of the sportswriters and analysts though….
That is the 4th lineup of 4 I have seen from so called experts that ALL have BJ Upton leading off…..
Just dumb….they are either underselling the importance of having a leadoff hitter (see Cincinnati), overselling the ability that Upton can’t hit in the middle of the order (see Dumb Al Leiter), OR they’re underselling the commentary from Frank Wren saying that if we didn’t get a legit leadoff hitter that Andrelton Simmons would be hitting there (see no one paying any bit of attention to the smartest man in the room)
Venice Jim
November 29th, 2012
10:43 am
From the Washington Post, Adam Kilgore looks at the impact of the Upton signing on the Nats, and where they might be in terms of Bourn…
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/nationals-journal/wp/2012/11/29/b-j-upton-lands-in-atlanta-and-the-center-field-market-starts-to-churn/
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
10:44 am
Freeman hit .140 vs. power pitchers, IIRC.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
10:44 am
scoots beat me to it.
Efrim
November 29th, 2012
10:46 am
DOB, I know you thought Bourn was a better fit, but do you think so even when considering the contracts, or expected contracts? If Bourn gets six years, $96 million at his age and with his skillset?
DAP
November 29th, 2012
10:46 am
scoots For me, Buster kinda shreds his cred on the Upton issue when he presents Chris Young as an alternative,
you dont think young and upton are similar players? young isnt quite as good of a hitter as upton, but he almost is, and young is much better defensively (say the metrics). i think it was a good comparison.young has similar value, especially at the cost, as upton does.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
10:46 am
Uggla (.811), Mac (.785), Justin (.774) vs. power pitchers.
.695 for Melvin. .438 in 2012
George_George
November 29th, 2012
10:47 am
David O’Brien
November 29th, 2012
10:20 am
Upton press conference to be carried live at 2 p.m. on 680 The Fan and online at 680thefan.com
***********************
Good morning all
Would anyone really want to listen to that bums press conference? Look for NATE type hitting stats from our CF position next season. BJ makeing more money then they paid CHIPPER, DISGUSTING!
David O'Brien
November 29th, 2012
10:48 am
DOB, you have some insight into what the club thinks about players in the system… what is their plan with Mejia? He originally came into the organization as an OF… any chance they could try and move him back out there? If not, are they going to try and package him up with someone else in a trade? — Murph
No plans to move him back to OF, from conversations I’ve had. He’s much bigger and more muscular now than when he last played OF. So it’s bench spot or trade, it would appear. Or back to Triple-A, of course.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
10:51 am
Not enough for Greinke…… sorry.
Bobby telling stories was enough to sway BJ… maybe bring him back and Maddux/Smoltz as well
Plus, we really would have 23mil-26mil to spend if we trade two of our more expensive starters.
But seeing that we have that flexibility, Ross, Justin, Victorino (maybe Swisher, if Hanson is traded) all fit under our constraints. We got 27mil coming off the books next year, we can fill the payroll to the max!
P-Town Brave ©
November 29th, 2012
10:51 am
So 12-15M left…hmm….
Go out and get Pagan or Victorino to sign off w/ the thought of building a super lineup….
Then sign Reed J, leave Francisco, and let the kids play….
Promote Gattis and then go w/ Pastor or Janish as backup MIF…..
OR go out and get Justin Upton or Alex Gordon….
While I’m not sure thats what will happen, we all know that those are pretty good options…..
Thing I look at there, IF we go out and get Gordon or Pagan, they can slot right into leadoff…..Victorino has never really been that guy, so if we went out and got him, he becomes a 7 or 8 hitter IMO….and if we went out and got Justin, I think you go Simmons/Prado/JUpton/Heyward/BJUpton/Freeman/Uggla/McCann once you hit May….
Adding any of those 4 I mentioned makes for a better ballclub, all in somewhat differing ways but for close to the same amount of money I would venture to guess…..
I think the easiest to obtain would probably be Victorino….not sure after that as it sounds like the Phils are hot after Pagan….and I’m still not sure what it would take to get either of the other two.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 29th, 2012
10:51 am
I like TOBF as a poster but man does he beat shyt to death. I think I may have to keep scrolling when I see his name if he keeps it up. Dude get over it Bossman is a Brave. Look at the bright side buddy the guy practically carried the Rays in their deep playoff run years ago. He a gamer and wants to win. And he chose our Braves over the Phillthies which gives him an A+++++ in my book.
Is the press conference being streamed live on Braves.com?
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
10:51 am
challenge of trying to place Dan Uggla and Upton in the same lineup
No problem, Uggla has a career .800+ OPS against power pitchers.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 29th, 2012
10:54 am
Speaking of our buddy Nate, the Marlins may be looking at him…. poor guy. They also want Bourjos. He’d be a good fit for LF here though, and may be available in the likely case that the Angels lose Greinke. Hanson+
Coach (2012 Fredi's Beisbol Fandango)
November 29th, 2012
10:57 am
75 million over five years is of course 15 million per season. The Braves didn’t want to give Bourn the same, which I agree with accordingly. But I think we overpaid a bit. But again, this was predictable and necessary. Upton brings power, defense and a much needed right hand bat. He also doesn’t lead off, strikes out way too much, and adds to Fredi’s off season to do list…..putting a line up together.
ncscoots
November 29th, 2012
10:59 am
you dont think young and upton are similar players?
I’d say that they’ve had a similar recent history, but similar players? No, I don’t think that. Upton may indeed turn out to be Chris Young, for all I know, but that would make him a bust. Chris Young turning out to be Chris Young, on the other hand, would be a reasonable expectation: a sub-100 OPS+ guy.
unbelievable
November 29th, 2012
11:00 am
Bowman..It will also be interesting to see if the D-backs arrive at this year’s Meetings ready to once again make Justin Upton (B.J.’s younger brother) available via trade. To get the younger Upton, the Braves would have to include either Teheran or Delgado and likely Nick Ahmed, a sure-handed shortstop who garnered some attention during the Arizona Fall League.
Wren should absolutely jump on a Justin Upton trade if it costs one of Teheran/Delgado + Ahmed.
unbelievable
November 29th, 2012
11:02 am
75 million over five years is of course 15 million per season. The Braves didn’t want to give Bourn the same, which I agree with accordingly. But I think we overpaid a bit. – Coach
Its my understanding that Bourn wanted more $$ and years. However, if he was willing to accept that same offer, then Bourn wouldve been the better fit.
RC
November 29th, 2012
11:02 am
75 million over five years is of course 15 million per season. The Braves didn’t want to give Bourn the same, which I agree with accordingly.
I don’t think Bourn would have accepted that amount. I’m betting he signs for at least 6-years, $16 million per.
Jeff R
November 29th, 2012
11:03 am
The strikeouts. Upton has racked up 934 over his last six seasons, in part because of his acute struggles against power pitchers. If you use the definition provided by Baseball-reference.com — the top third of the pitchers in the league in strikeouts plus walks — Upton hit .168 against power pitchers last year, with no homers in 121 plate appearances. After Wednesday’s signing, rival evaluators mused over Fredi Gonzalez’s challenge of trying to place Dan Uggla and Upton in the same lineup, given that Uggla is a very similar hitter to Upton — streaky, with a lot of strikeouts.
If Upton can or will make adjustments – back off the power hitting somewhat – maybe he will. If not, between Uggla and Upton, double-trouble.
Arkansas Transplant
November 29th, 2012
11:03 am
If we get Justin.. surely it would cause both Uptons to play at a very high level, trying to out do the other.
P-Town Brave ©
November 29th, 2012
11:03 am
BP-
Agreed…..F Longoria…..BJ almost carried them from the dead to a playoff berth in 2012….
And if not for Matt Garza, he would have won the ALCS MVP going away that year….
People really do get critical and bent out of shape about everything these days…..
And yet most are the same ppl who always complain that the Braves have no money….