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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
2,505 comments Add your comment
Lew
November 21st, 2012
11:01 am
Then ignore me professor.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
11:01 am
Shaun….. :facepalm:
Lew
November 21st, 2012
11:03 am
And BTW Shaun – It’s PASSED over – not past over. I think that’s a holiday, isn’t it?
TennesseePaul
November 21st, 2012
11:03 am
i think last year was an anomaly for upton when it comes to OBP, and thus, OPS. i wouldnt expect him to OPS .750 again
I would tend to agree with that. I don’t see Bourn’s bat improving with age.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
11:03 am
i suppose the braves could bat him (BJ) 5th or maybe even cleanup and see what happens.
He’d be hitting 7th within a month. 8th when Mac gets back!
tony austin
November 21st, 2012
11:04 am
My wife said I treat one of my daughters unfairly. I wonder which one she is talking about, my beautiful, sweet, precious angel or that other kid.
Ray
November 21st, 2012
11:04 am
Yeah TP, I thought of that too but for someone that has a bit of a clue and understanding would get exactly what I was stating. I know scoots, you and others would get what I am stating.
TennesseePaul
November 21st, 2012
11:05 am
I think that’s a holiday, isn’t it?
That would be “pass over”. “Past over” is simply redundant.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
11:07 am
i think last year was an anomaly for upton when it comes to OBP, and thus, OPS. i wouldnt expect him to OPS .750 again
I can understand that, but he’s been in that range for his last 3 years… he’ll probably get closer to .780 (if his OBP gets back to near .320, his 4yr avg.) Still not great numbers, not a good fit.
ncscoots
November 21st, 2012
11:11 am
I personally like it better when “narrative” or “park-adjusted”, rather than “ad hominem” is Shaun’s word of the day.
Because, in truth, Shaun falls prey to the ad hominem fallacy fallacy.
Personal abuse directed towards the maker of an argument is not, in fact, an ad hominem attack unless the personal attack is used to undermine the logic of the maker’s argument. Otherwise, it’s just plain old personal abuse, LOL.
Sadly, the perps of ad hominem fallacies most often are those who accuse others of such a thing. The accuser attempts to dismiss the logic of a contrary opinion by resorting to claims of personal attacks, rather than engaging the logic of the contrary opinion. Thus, creating a complete circular attack on themselves.
Lew
November 21st, 2012
11:11 am
Ten Paul – “What’s all this talk about violins in America?”
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
11:12 am
It is at this point it should be noted that this is a sorting and filtering on five columns.
If one has to sort and focus on one or five columns and ignore a player’s overall contributions throughout a whole season, that person is probably looking for something other than value in a player.
When one has to focus on Triple Crown stats, September, team making the playoffs and ignores what a player contributes overall throughout a season, that person is not really concerned with which player is most valuable.
So because Upton plays CF, he gets a pass for being such a poor hitter?
Begging the question. A poor hitter by what standards? He’s just fine relative to centerfielders and once you consider ballparks in which he’s played.
Lew
November 21st, 2012
11:14 am
Ad hominen? And just when I thought he’d legally changed his name to Straw Dog.
Efrim
November 21st, 2012
11:17 am
At least Dexter Fowler is 26, Denard Span is 28 as is BJ Upton.
Bourn will be crossing over to the dark side of 30 soon and giving him a six year deal in the 90-100 million range is stupid.
Whole situation with Bourn reaks of Boras getting him to sign with either Rizzo or Sabean in late December or early January.
DAP
November 21st, 2012
11:17 am
TOBF he’ll probably get closer to .780 (if his OBP gets back to near .320, his 4yr avg.) Still not great numbers, not a good fit.
yeah, IF he maintain his slugging. i actually think .780 from our CFer would be great. but its not what i had in mind for cleanup.
ncscoots
November 21st, 2012
11:18 am
Ad hominen? And just when I thought he’d legally changed his name to Straw Dog.
But I thought Shaun would find it interesting, with the counter-intuitive underlayment of it all. At least, now he won’t throw the phrase around inappropriately.
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
11:18 am
Shaun can’t see the forest for the pine needles
If you are ignoring position, age, skill set, ballpark, just focusing on Triple Crown stats, September hitting stats, etc. you are ignoring the forest in favor of the pine needles.
brian
November 21st, 2012
11:19 am
I will not be heartbroken if the Phillies outbid us for BJ Upton
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
11:20 am
All those focusing on me instead of the topics and ideas are acknowledging that they have nothing to add to the discourse and their comments are absolutely pointless and not worth anything.
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
11:21 am
Also, focusing on me instead of ideas and topics is probably a sign that you know you are wrong about many of the ideas and topics I’ve expressed that you have an opposing view on. You can’t address the ideas so you move the discussion to me. I’m flattered by the obsession but I would just assume have an enlightened discussion.
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
11:22 am
“I would just as soon,’ I mean.
…and “passed over.”
Didn’t bring my editor with me to the comments section. Sorry.
ncscoots
November 21st, 2012
11:24 am
All those focusing on me instead of the topics and ideas are acknowledging that they have nothing to add to the discourse and their comments are absolutely pointless and not worth anything.
Oh, I don’t know. There is usually at least a small bit of entertainment value in there, LOL, so I wouldn’t call them “pointless”. People just like messin’ with you, man.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 21st, 2012
11:24 am
Lew
November 21st, 2012
10:59 am
Yes, Victorino is now 31. He can barely lift that bat anymore.
Lew
I know this was meant as a sarcastic joke but he has been injured lately and his numbers are declining. Some so called experts have said his bat speed is slowing down. Maybe he just needs a lighter bat? I suggest one of those yellow, long skinnny wiffle ball bats maybe, after all he is a small guy.
ncscoots
November 21st, 2012
11:25 am
Also, focusing on me instead of ideas and topics is probably a sign that you know you are wrong about many of the ideas and topics I’ve expressed that you have an opposing view on.
See, now this actually is an ad hominem attack.
Good example thanks, man.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
11:26 am
I will not be heartbroken if the Phillies outbid us for BJ Upton
I would be elated.
Begging the question. A poor hitter by what standards?
The expected production of a $15million hitter (+ the loss of a 1st round pick), the production lost by Chipper, poor hitter compared to who he’s expected to offer protection too (JHey and Free)
TennesseePaul
November 21st, 2012
11:27 am
If you are ignoring position, age…
It would seem to imply that one is suggesting age as a determent to winning accolades. One shouldn’t so blatantly embrace ageism, such prejudice is beneath the rest of us.
TennesseePaul
November 21st, 2012
11:28 am
See, now this actually is an ad hominem attack. Good example thanks, man.
Ha! Flawless.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
11:29 am
i actually think .780 from our CFer would be great. but its not what i had in mind for cleanup.
Agree. Freeman, Hey, Mac, Uggla could all easily post that same OPS… and they supposedly aren’t great fits. Justin Upton would be a good fit. .785 is his lowest OPS (something BJ hasn’t reached since 08) and is likely to post nearly a 900 OPS next season. He’d be a great fit at cleanup.
tony austin
November 21st, 2012
11:33 am
I’m not sure who I like for CF/LF (like it matters). I guess it’s just a process of elimination.
No: Bourn, Upton, Hamilton, Swisher
On The Fence: Victorino
Leaves: Span/Willingham via trade, Pagan FA.
I don’t think Willingham will be available for what MN is likely to request. I think I’d be okay with either Span or Pagan or maybe even both.
However I would rather see the Braves sign any of the above as long as it’s not Upton.
BravesFanInMaine
November 21st, 2012
11:34 am
I hope the nhl settles there dispute so I can watch hockey again bc once the football season is over its going to be a long month of winter til baseball starts
Lew
November 21st, 2012
11:35 am
“Ignoring the forest for the pine needles”
Dude, isn’t that exactly what not seeing the forest for the pine needles means? But – then agin – you just parrot stuff you read elsewhere and haven’t truly had an origianl thought the enitre time you’ve been on this blog – it’;s always someone else’s work.
And I thought I was only worthy of being ignored? So far, how’s that been going?
Tumbledown
November 21st, 2012
11:35 am
I apologize to anyone (even Tron) for any comments that can be construed as an attack. I wish I had more to offer in the way of furthering the discussion but I simply do not have the time or energy to research all these baseball stats and figure out how to compare each player in an objective and proper. My job is research based, and I just want an outlet from that.
I have watched baseball for almost 40 years, but have probably gained more knowledge about it during my short term on this board than at any other previous time. With all the analysis and debate I read, I do feel it important to remind everyone that this should be a fun endeavor. Life has too many not-so-fun things to grapple with, so I believe that we should try to remember this a little during the discourse.
raleighbravefan
November 21st, 2012
11:36 am
POMPOUS ARROGANCE ALERT! POMPOUS ARROGANCE ALERT!
Shaun is wound up today, attempting to show us the error of our ways…and shortcomings of our thoughts and opinions…worse than usual, if that’s possible.
Uh, DUH, what were we thinking?!?
Atlanta Braves Links of the Day For November 21, 2012 | Atlanta Braves Dugout Online | Atlanta Braves Blog
November 21st, 2012
11:36 am
[...] Braves target Upton, while weighing other CF options [...]
ncscoots
November 21st, 2012
11:43 am
With all the analysis and debate I read, I do feel it important to remind everyone that this should be a fun endeavor.
Hey, I guess it all depends on the definition of “fun”.
But, yeah, if it didn’t entertain me, I certainly wouldn’t come around. What would be the point?
raleighbravefan
November 21st, 2012
11:44 am
Lew – Violins? Oh, violence. That’s very different! Never mind. (with a tip of the cap to Emily Litella)
Lew
November 21st, 2012
11:44 am
Brave Pack – Maybe he is injured – if so, he certsainly hasn’t acknowledged it. I just find it hard to believe that at age 31, his bat speed slowed down enough that anyone could actually tell. Not as if he had a fall off the cliff season – it was simply an off year.
But – that being said – I’m not advocating for him to be signed by the Braves. But it wouldn’t send me screaming in horror if they did, either.
raleighbravefan
November 21st, 2012
11:45 am
I still miss the late, GREAT, Gilda Radner.
ccrider
November 21st, 2012
11:45 am
Trade for Span $6.5, Trade for Kubel $8, sign C. Ross 3 years $8 per
CF Span
3B Prado against all pitchers with Francisco given as many at bats aginst RHers as he deserves, Prado rest Freeman, LF, SS(IF the Braves want an extra bigger bat on the bench than Janish) but mostly Uggla, if he continues to slump
RF Heyward
LF Ross against LHers, Kubel Against RHers
1B Freeman
2B Uggla
C McCann/Laird
SS Simmons
rest of bench: Janish, Reed Johnson,
raleighbravefan
November 21st, 2012
11:46 am
Lew – But have you researched his WAR?
Lew
November 21st, 2012
11:49 am
raleighbraves – Which version?
ncscoots
November 21st, 2012
11:51 am
Trade for Kubel $8, sign C. Ross 3 years $8 per
I guess it’s possible that the team may be unable to find one player to readily fill LF, and would attempt such a platoon. Stranger things have happened.
raleighbravefan
November 21st, 2012
11:52 am
Lew – Does it really matter?
abeeeewright
November 21st, 2012
11:54 am
ncscoots, November 21st, 2012, 11:43 am … “… if it didn’t entertain me, I certainly wouldn’t come around. What would be the point?”
Influencing the Front Office to adopt your brilliant view-points, ala Dentz.
(I’d put a smiley after that comment if I did smilies.)
abeeeewright
November 21st, 2012
11:57 am
raleighbravefan, November 21st, 2012, 11:36 am … “Shaun is wound up today, attempting to show us the error of our ways…and shortcomings of our thoughts and opinions…worse than usual, if that’s possible.”
Since the original point of discussion is now past, over … could you fill the rest of us in on what started the current bark-fest?
monty
November 21st, 2012
11:58 am
Merry Thanksgiving All! Since Christmas has officially imposed(thanks to retailers) itself on the Thanksgiving Holiday. Look out Halloween, you day is coming.
ncscoots
November 21st, 2012
11:58 am
Influencing the Front Office to adopt your brilliant view-points, ala Dentz.
Frank quit taking my calls after the Escobar trade.
My FO influence-peddling days seem to be over.
abeeeewright
November 21st, 2012
12:00 pm
In all the sturm and drang over BJ Upton, it would pay us to consider … is he better than Schafer? Since that’s who we’ve got pencilled into CF if FW doesn’t get a trade/FA signing done.
raleighbravefan
November 21st, 2012
12:02 pm
abeeee – Who knows? I rarely pay that much attention, considering the source. It often is not the message itself, but the manor in which it is delivered which is the point of contention.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
12:08 pm
Not getting BJ doesn’t necessarily mean that Schaffeure will be patrolling CF. With many trade possibilities, Victorino (possibly available cheaply), Reed Johnson, Pastornicky are all available. But with us possibly needing to replace Mac’s offense next year along with 2 pitchers, I wouldn’t be for throwing 15mil at BJ in the hopes that he gets better. We’re gonna need to spend next winter as well.
TennesseePaul
November 21st, 2012
12:11 pm
Frank quit taking my calls after the Escobar trade.
Frank just gave that guy away… Blue Jays just traded him for two starting pitchers, a starting catcher, a starting short stop and a utility player, all with MLB service.
…
Of course, in Wren’s defense he did manage to find some one who would take JoJo Reyes.
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
12:13 pm
Dude, isn’t that exactly what not seeing the forest for the pine needles means?
Yep. If you focused on Triple Crown stats, September hitting and team making the playoffs instead of overall value of a player throughout the 2012 season in determining the most valuable player in 2012, you are not seeing the forest for the pine needles.
If you are focused purely on OBP and SLG of BJ Upton and ignoring age, skill set, ballparks in which he’s played, position, then you are not seeing the forest for the pine needles.
That’s the problem here. Too many pine needles not enough forest.
That’s, folks, for the attention you are giving me. I appreciate the obsession with me. I’m truly flattered that you all want to focus on me. But, again, I just as soon have a reasonable discourse and discuss ideas and topics.
TennesseePaul
November 21st, 2012
12:13 pm
Yunel went into the 2010 season with a career line of .301/.375/.426/.801 (111 OPS+) in over 1500 major league PA’s and then proceeded to torch and burn every single bridge he crossed.
DAP
November 21st, 2012
12:17 pm
abeeewright In all the sturm and drang over BJ Upton, it would pay us to consider … is he better than Schafer?
oh heck yeah.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
12:23 pm
is he 14mil better than Schafer?
rico carty
November 21st, 2012
12:25 pm
Not sure what everyone sees in Span except that he’s cheap.
I like Swisher–power from both sides of the plate, good clubhouse guy.
Victorino in CF and Swisher in LF works for me.
DAP
November 21st, 2012
12:27 pm
TOBF is he 14mil better than Schafer?
probably.
Keith
November 21st, 2012
12:28 pm
What about Charlie Blackmon from the Rockies. Solid and he did play for G.T. MICHAEL BOURN COULD/WOULD SIGN IF OFFERED 5 YEARS 75 MILLION.
Lew
November 21st, 2012
12:28 pm
But WTF Shaun? Three or four years ago you thought I couldn’t use OBP or OPS. I’m all the way up to around 2008 now – I even cite OPS+.
And about that worthy of being ignored thing. Bet you can’t do it as long as I keep replying to your line of BS. Or is that xBS+?
ccrider
November 21st, 2012
12:28 pm
ncscoots, The A’s platoon worked pretty well this year, it may be an option
Lemke's Knuckler
November 21st, 2012
12:34 pm
TheOnlyBravesFan…”is he 14mil better than Schafer?”
Isn’t everyone?
Lemke's Knuckler
November 21st, 2012
12:35 pm
Hey, this time last year we were talking about Seth Smith. I think BJ Upton is an upgrade in the conversation.
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
12:38 pm
Lew, if you bring up valid, reasonable points related to ideas and topics worthy of being discussed, that’s fine. I’ll ignore anyone who wants to make it about me instead of ideas and topics and evidence and reason worthy of discussion, as flattered as I am.
If you have something in your post like, “Shaun is this” or “Shaun is that” instead of just getting right to the point, that’s a sign that you have no point other than to attack me and that you aren’t worthy of attention.
If you notice, generally if I’m addressing someone’s points, I simply start with their name, like I’m writing a letter, so that that person knows whom I’m addressing then I get right to the point. I do my best to avoid trying to characterize others and do my best to just express the idea, argument or counter-argument I’m making and stick to that. Seems that’s an easy way to avoid not making things personal and keeping your biases towards a person out of the discourse.
Lew
November 21st, 2012
12:39 pm
I’d like to see them trade for Fowler (good Atlanta Kid – he’d boost his performance just by living at home – based on the adjusted HF factor+) or Span and then signing Swisher.
All this talk of low OBP and incvonsistency, yet most seem to overlokk the one player with power, good OBP, consistency, ability to hit for power even in pitcher’s parks (Oakland) and a switch hitter, too (replaces Chipper’s SH).
And it would make scoots wring his hands and moan.
tony austin
November 21st, 2012
12:39 pm
I reread this post and although I still am going to post it, it is a pretty stupid post/idea, so please feel free to scroll past it.
There are so many stats that show a player either not worthy of being called a player or the next coming of Henry Aaron. There should be a way to average every possible stat there is, including attitude and hustle or lackadaisical play, take those stats and come up with some kind of a number. The higher the number the more valuable the player. Upton is a 409 while Bourn is a 422 so let’s go after Bourn. Hamilton is a 421 but I don’t want to pay him, Pagan is a 418 and we should go after him.
DAP
November 21st, 2012
12:43 pm
lew All this talk of low OBP and incvonsistency, yet most seem to overlokk the one player with power, good OBP, consistency, ability to hit for power even in pitcher’s parks (Oakland) and a switch hitter, too (replaces Chipper’s SH).
And it would make scoots wring his hands and moan.
such a player might actually make some sense batting cleanup.
Fols
November 21st, 2012
12:44 pm
Tony the problem with assigning each player a number is that you hurt feelings.
How would you feel if you’re Dan Uggla and you wake up to see your number lower than Julio Franco and the year is 2012?
It’s just not fair.
Lew
November 21st, 2012
12:45 pm
When are you going to start ignoring me? I’m waiting.
And as for actually making valid points and using stats while doing it – That’;s exactly what I’ve done with you for two years re: BJ Upton. He keeps putting up the same numbers and very low OBP, but you keep telling me it doesn’t matter because of his age and about how much potential he has.. However, he’s two years older and putting up the ame pitiful OBP and striking out as much as when you started arguing with me two winters ago.
But I’ll ask the same question yet again (and maybe you’ll actually give me a realistic anser – or for that matter – any reasonable answer) – How many years of full time play in MLB does a player need to play before it’s no longer potential, but what it is? Is it six? Eight? A fifteen yer career?
BJ’s played six full years and a third of two more. I think what we have is exactly what we’ve seen – some speed, some power, and a wildly undisciplined hitter with ernough speed to make up for his mediocre defensive ability.
CB
November 21st, 2012
12:46 pm
Really, Upton would not be my top choice either but I don’t see a huge drop off in talent between him and Bourn. What concerns me much more is who the replacement for Chipper is in the lineup. Even though he didn’t play every day his presence in the lineup most certainly kept the lineup going.
tony austin
November 21st, 2012
12:46 pm
@Fols –
P'cola Brave
November 21st, 2012
12:49 pm
One thing that worries me about Nick Swisher is hes been an AL player his entire career. Over his career his batting line against NL teams is .236/.342/.405/.747.
Fols
November 21st, 2012
12:49 pm
I really haven’t seen it, but is there thoughts of having Upton in LF and still trading for say…Span? Or is Upton a CF option only?
Lew
November 21st, 2012
12:50 pm
DAP – That’s what I;ve been saying for several years now. I do not understand the lack of love for ole Nick though. He puts up great numbers every year and wouldn’t cost any more than many of the player mentioned more prominently.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
12:50 pm
Upton would not be my top choice either but I don’t see a huge drop off in talent between him and Bourn
But there is a huge dropoff in performance…
Dudcreek
November 21st, 2012
12:50 pm
Michael Brantley from Indians,, trade for him and sign him when necessary.. If not then a year or two sign another, but Upton???Not this time
CB
November 21st, 2012
12:52 pm
TOBF,wrong but don’t let that stop you.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
12:52 pm
Shaun must be Larry Reynolds (BJ’s agent)…
Lew
November 21st, 2012
12:53 pm
P’Cola – Relatively small sample size. And considering the pitching in the NL East the past few years (which the Yankees probably played more than any other division….), it’s likely somewhat skewed. He’d do better facing the same pitchers more often.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 21st, 2012
12:54 pm
Shaun
and that you aren’t worthy of attention
I think that right there is why Lew and others take offense to you. You’re right that you typically do a good job of avoiding directly saying “Lew is an idiot.” But you structure your arguments by saying why someone points are wrong and yours are right, and here’s why. And do you this with what tends to be a fairly condescending style of writing.
I have a supervisor that doesn’t understand that the concept of “senior review” should involve him reviewing my work to make sure I didn’t overlook or miss anything important. Instead, he basically re-writes the reports or work in the exact format he would use if he were writing it, because in his head that’s the right way to do it. Then he explains why this should be this way or that should be that way, and throws a little “but overall it looks pretty good” at the end thinking he’s giving me a pat on the back, when actually he basically just took a big dump over all the hard work I did. Some people just have a knack for making people feel like idiots even if what they’re doing or saying anything isn’t wrong (most things are relative to a point of view and there’s rarely ever a right or wrong answer), and he’s one of them. And sometimes you come across that way too. Whether you intend to is besides the point. Perception is reality my friend.
P'cola Brave
November 21st, 2012
12:55 pm
BJ Upton made 7 million last year and didn’t exactly have a contract year. Statistically it was one of his worse. I can’t see paying him any more than 12 million and getting your worth out of the contract. Dan Uggla had more impressive stats at the time of his contract and will only make 14 (or close to this year) and he was at the time one of the top 2nd basemen.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 21st, 2012
12:59 pm
Fowler, Upton, Span, Pagan…
Not really sure anyone really stands out from that group. I would be fine with any of them. I think Upton has the most potential, but potential doesn’t score runs.
P'cola Brave
November 21st, 2012
12:59 pm
I would much prefer the Braves sign Swisher compared to BJ Upton. I think you’ll get more value from Swisher than Upton over the contract. Plus acquiring a valuable CF via trade will be easier than a LF/3B therefore making the team better.
Lew
November 21st, 2012
1:01 pm
P’Cola – And most people don’t realize that both Uggla and McCann – with their fall off seasons last year, still both ranked among the top third of all NL players at the second base and catcher positions offensively.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 21st, 2012
1:02 pm
Dudcreek…Michael Brantley from Indians
I’m sold. I think he’s a definite up and comer. But I’m pretty sure he’s one of the few players the Indians intend to keep.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 21st, 2012
1:05 pm
P’cola Braves,
The Braves need more speed in center that Swisher provides. Turner Field has some pretty big gaps and we have a staff full of contact pitchers. I think a strong defensive CF is a must.
tony austin
November 21st, 2012
1:05 pm
I think I have the potential to be a doctor. I have a 4.0 college GPA, I feel I’m pretty smart (in my mind, sometimes it’s hard to put my thoughts into words) yet I work in I.T. Just because I have the potential to be a doctor doesn’t mean I am ever going to be a doctor. Just because Upton has potential doesn’t mean he will ever use it. The hospital isn’t going to put me into the OR because I have the potential, neither should the Braves pay $15M to Upton based on the same fact.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 21st, 2012
1:07 pm
Lew,
We’re a greedy fan base. Uggla should be the top-ranked offensive 2B and McCann should trail only Posey.
Fols
November 21st, 2012
1:08 pm
I guess this is what November does to a blog…
What’s kind of funny is that we’re all batting around these B list ideas trying to come up with a team that will put us over the wild card hunt. Meanwhile the Bourn’s and Hamilton’s will sign elsewhere. Those are the A list. If the Braves want to get over a hump and plant a true stud in-between Heyward and Freeman they sure won’t find that shopping in the wrong list.
Not like there are great options out there, just find it kind of funny the names we are tossing around. Lets all admit, Upton, Swisher, whoever, unless Uggla and Mac have some sort of jolt in production again, this is wild card talk.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 21st, 2012
1:08 pm
tony austin,
Baseball ain’t a hospital. Plenty of people get paid big based on potential.
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
1:08 pm
Lew, you seem to be confusing me with someone else. I’ve hardly brought up Upton’s potential. He’s been a solid player throughout his career and I see no reason to expect that to change within the next several seasons.
I think maybe some think he’s been a failure or something close to it because he’s not a superstar. But he’s been quite good and there is no reason to think he won’t continue to be quite good for a while longer.
His OBP, and his offensive production in general, is not low compared to other centerfielders. In fact when looking at his career as a whole, his production is quite good.
2007 was the first year he got significant playing time (his first season with over 189 PA). Since that time, he’s comfortably been one of the top 10 centerfielders in the game in terms of overall value, maybe even top 5-6. That’s pretty impressive that he’s accumulated that much value so far in his career and he’s still relatively young.
This idea that those of us who are more than okay with Upton in centerfield for the Braves for the next few years (assuming that the front office gives him a reasonable contract, which I think is a very safe assumption) are focusing on his potential instead of who he has shown himself to be is simply not grounded in reality.
His potential is nice and certainly it’s a minor factor but it’s who he has shown himself to be that is important, and he’s shown himself to be a very solid player.
Please don’t focus on strikeouts, potential, and just on any one offensive metric. Focus on the whole package, including how he compares to other players at his position, his age, his skill set, how the parks in which he’s played have affected his statistics, etc.
Lew
November 21st, 2012
1:08 pm
Swisher wouldn’t play CF – he’d play LF and we could get a CFer through trade – like P’Cola proposed earlier.
tony austin
November 21st, 2012
1:11 pm
Baseball ain’t a hospital. Plenty of people get paid big based on potential. – Lemke’s Knuckler
Ah, who asked you anyway
Just kidding of course, touche.
Lew
November 21st, 2012
1:11 pm
Sahun – More of your xBS+- Of course you did. I only wish Random were here to pull up your posts. Hell, for that matter, you keep mentioning age (you did it earlier today) and that equates to the argument about potential.
But after all the time BJ’s played in the bigs and the results don’t improve (and they certainly have NOT), then you have to finally realize that what you;ve seen is what you’ll get.
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
1:12 pm
Nick Swisher would be a great addition for the Braves. I think the issue might be cost. If the Yankees want to keep him or if a team like the Red Sox gets in to a bidding war with the Yankees, the Braves probably have no chance. Even if the Braves offer something equal, he’s probably choosing the Yankees.
Also, he’s older and brings no defensive value over replacement, so he’s probably not the type that you should go way over market value for in order to outbid a team like the Yankees.
P'cola Brave
November 21st, 2012
1:12 pm
Lemke
Sorry if it read that I was proposing Swisher for CF. I would have him in LF and would pursue a CF through trade (Fowler, Span, etc.)
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 21st, 2012
1:15 pm
brings no defensive value over replacement,
BJ doesn’t either… he may actually cost defensive value.
Swisher, Hamilton, Olt, Myers, Upton for LF…. Span or Fowler for CF
Jeff R
November 21st, 2012
1:15 pm
Humans was thought it sound that their gut feelings suggested the earth was the center of the universe and that when someone sneezed they need to be blessed right away so that the evil spirits wouldn’t enter in to their bodies. You sure you want to rely purely on gut feeling?
Shaun, are you sure you want to rely solely on science? No human error there? No false premises? No faulty methodology?
Jeff R
November 21st, 2012
1:19 pm
But after all the time BJ’s played in the bigs and the results don’t improve (and they certainly have NOT), then you have to finally realize that what you;ve seen is what you’ll get.
Likely, Lew, but not definitively. Some players do perform better later than earlier in their careers (pitchers come to mind). However, there’s no reason to believe that Upton will do more with the Braves than he’s done with Rays. The Braves signing Upton represents a substantial financial gamble for a team a fairly strict budget.
I wouldn’t sign Upton if I were Wren.
Shaun
November 21st, 2012
1:19 pm
Lew, age matters, not in terms of potential for a player going in to his age 28 season (because we shouldn’t expect a player to get drastically better at that age), but in terms of the fact that we shouldn’t expect him to get worse over the next few seasons. And that’s just fine because he’s been quite good and his displayed the skills to remain quite good. Yes, what we’ve seen is what the Braves would get, most likely. And that is more than fine.
(Notice the quote, “Sahun – More of your xBS+-.” Everyone take note of my above comments and try to find something remotely like that. If your comment includes a personal attack, I’m concerned that you can’t be objective and unbiased.)
Lew
November 21st, 2012
1:22 pm
Why are you concerned that I can’t be objective and unbiased if you feel that I’m worthy of being ignored?