3:21 pm November 19, 2012, by Carroll Rogers
November 20th, 20125:00 pm
Dayton finally DFA’d Brayan Pena. Impressive that guy has hung around the majors for 8 seasons.
One more “season” and Pena could end his career with the same length of tenure and “better” numbers than Joe Simpson.
single white dove
November 20th, 20125:04 pm
What about signing david wright and angle pagan?
November 20th, 20125:07 pm
Angle’s too obtuse :p
First off – this post is NOT apersonal preference or reccomendation for who we should acquire. It is merely the result of an exercise just to “See” what the results might be within certain narrow parameters. I based it on the premise that “We have to replace Chipper and Bourn’s performances” and this is strictly an offensive comparison of what am acquistion of BJ and Cody Ross (like I said – merely an example) and only uses last years’ numbers.
Bourn and Chipper accounted for 127 BB, 462B, 10 3B, 23 HR and 43 SB.
Based on last years numbers, a replacement of their numbers with BJ and Cody Ross’s last years’, the result is this -
-40BB, +17 2B, -6 3B, +27 HR and -10 SB.
Like I said – just for the hell of it.
November 20th, 20125:10 pm
Lew, you must also include the stunning good looks of Cody Ross. Ain’t no man alive who could speak ill of Ross with the way he looks.
November 20th, 20125:11 pm
Probably would be +100-120 Ks
I would look at runs scored/driven in, runs saved defensively, # of hits, etc. as well…
November 20th, 20125:13 pm
HA! I just pulled up an image or Cody to see what he looks like… I guess that’s Payne’s kind of guy. Perhaps he found his intrinsic beauty through a quantitative analysis of his bone structure and breadth of smile.
Ten Paul – OHHHHH Kay.
November 20th, 20125:14 pm
Only Braves – Yes, you would have, but I’m not anal nor did I desire getting into the comparison on the sub atomic level.
November 20th, 20125:18 pm
but I’m not anal nor did I desire getting into the comparison on the sub atomic level
November 20th, 20125:20 pm
I really hope Cody Ross isn’t gonna be a Brave…. The guy had a good “slugging” season aided by playing in Fenway, and still managed to produce a pathetic OBP which was right around his career norm. He’s only a average defender at all three outfield spots and can mash LHP. He’d make a good platoon guy for sure but he wants to be paid like a everyday guy…
I like Upton cause of his power and speed combination but that 5 year 75 million estimated contract he’ll sign is a huge overpay, how on earth could this guy actually get 15 million a season… I’d say that’s about 5 million to much. Possibly more… No thanks.
November 20th, 20125:22 pm
What’d you call me?
November 20th, 20125:24 pm
Bourn: 135 runs offensively, and 38 defensively, 171 Hits, 155 Ks (244 TB)
Jones: 92 runs offensively, 4 defensively, 111 Hits, 51 Ks (176 TB)
Upton: 101 runs offensively, 2 defensively, 141 Hits, 169 Ks (260 TB)
Ross: 107 runs offensively, -5 defensively, 127 Hits, 129 Ks (229 TB)
Jones&Bourn: 227 runs offensively, 42 defensively (a total of 269 runs), 282 Hits, 210 Ks, 420 Total Bases
Upton&Ross: 208 runs offensively, -3 defensively (a total of 205 runs), 268 Hits, 298 Ks, 289 Total Bases
That was with Chipper missing considerable time, and the addition of Ross w/ Upton. It’s quite likely that whoever the LF is won’t be as valuable as Ross was.
November 20th, 20125:25 pm
Awesome? I wasn’t aware that I called you anything..
November 20th, 20125:27 pm
My thinking on both UPTON’s tends to the polar opposite. They might try to monopolize the clubhouse convo and play on the field as well.
November 20th, 20125:28 pm
Since we’re both divining here.
November 20th, 20125:29 pm
of course I meant 489 total bases for Upton and Ross…
Heh! it’s a line from a movie………”SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION.” The main character calls the warden ‘obtuse’
November 20th, 20125:35 pm
What’s the expected net gain or net loss in wins with Upton and Ross versus Jones and Bourn?
Also, after we factor in the likely improvement of McCann, what does that do to the expected win total?
That’s all we should really care about.
November 20th, 20125:36 pm
What’s the expected net gain or net loss in wins with Upton and Ross versus Jones and Bourn?
Fine. Go ahead and tell us their WAR
November 20th, 20125:38 pm
Change it to Span or Fowler (who IMO are likely acquisitions for LF)…
w/ Upton and Span: 205 runs offensively, 10 defensively, 287 Hits, 231 Ks, 92 BB, 464 TB
w/ Upton and Fowler: 200 runs offensively, -3 defensively, 277 Hits, 297 Ks, 113 BB, 475 BB
Still below where we were this season.
I have not written all year!!!!!…another mediocre season, except Chipper was cool until that last game gaffe which I attended oh so very briely getting there late and leaving early…L.A. style. Upton, .246 hitter wow!!! are the Braves just TOTALLY INSANE OR WHAT????? pay me $1 million and I could bat higher than that????!!! duh
November 20th, 20125:39 pm
“I like Upton cause of his power and speed combination but that 5 year 75 million estimated contract he’ll sign is a huge overpay, how on earth could this guy actually get 15 million a season… I’d say that’s about 5 million to much. Possibly more… No thanks.”
Yep. If you’re going to give him that, you mine as well overpay to keep Bourn who is a significantly more valuable player.
Really at this point, I think BJ Upton has to be the Ryan Dempster of the Braves deadline. No way they are actually going to do that deal, but they are just “talking” about it. Upton is just not worth that kind of money. He really isn’t. Especially if you can get a guy like Span and/or Willingham who would cost the same amount of money COMBINED (minus prospects).
P-Town Brave ©
November 20th, 20125:40 pm
I still like Span out there and whether they admit it or not, Upton projects better over time as a corner OF….
While they could get that combo, it makes no sense to me having Span in LF and BJ in CF….although I’m sure given the money they would give BJ, it’d make sense to try and keep him as happy as can be….
November 20th, 20125:41 pm
Have we signed Upton yet?
November 20th, 20125:42 pm
Fowler OTOH, I could see being moved to LF…..he just isn’t that great, even if you put into consideration that he plays in that vast park in Colorado….
FWIW, Span plays in a massive OF in Minny and has to cover LOTS of ground w/ Willingham in LF and the revolving door that has been RF there before Revere took that job.
November 20th, 20125:44 pm
I’d rather have Schafer in CF and Hamilton in LF at this point than have to watch the Braves kill their future hopes and dreams by overpaying for BJ “I’ll never live up to my promise” Upton.
November 20th, 20125:45 pm
jeffrey d, it be best to look at Ross and Upton’s expected WAR for next season versus Chipper and Bourn’s from last season.
To look at how the how team might improve or decline, you would need to factor in any changes in expected WAR from all other players, of course. Most notably, we’d probably be talking McCann here. Also, having Simmons at shortstop all season may be significant.
Bourn had a career year and Chipper was pretty darn good, so without running the numbers, I would guess the Braves would take a bit of a hit in just those two spots. But go with someone like Willingham and Upton, that may even things out quite a bit.
It’s safe to say the Braves likely aren’t getting another 2012 Bourn type season from their centerfielder, even if they bring back Bourn.
November 20th, 20125:46 pm
Another mediocre season? Did you perhaps not tune in to the 94 wins?
November 20th, 20125:49 pm
Hell with it, trade for Span and Fowler. We’ll just play great defense and steal bases lol
November 20th, 20125:51 pm
Agreed and no matter what some think, it’d be hard pressed to believe Uggla will have another below .400 SLG year and be who he was….
November 20th, 20125:52 pm
Sad to say but the best player mentioned so far is Willingham. Haven’t really come up with a realistic CF option. I’m assuming if we get Willingham we can’t get Span. But I’d try a Marlins like deal to get both those guys. Justin and Fowler are too much products of their home parks. BJ is overrated and overpaid. Victorino seems to be over the hill and not a CF but I’d be willing to take a chance on him.
November 20th, 20125:53 pm
From John Dewan of ACTA Sports and The Fielding Bible:
“6,200,000 – That is what perennial backup catcher David Ross will earn with his new two-year contract with the Boston Red Sox. In four seasons with Atlanta, Ross accumulated close to a full season of at-bats and produced well offensively. His .816 OPS is comparable to some of the better hitting catchers including Carlos Santana and Miguel Montero, albeit in a third of the plate appearances. However, it is defensively where Ross stands out. Ross has saved the Braves 11 runs with his defense, buoyed by throwing out 47 of 127 potential basestealers. His 37.0 caught stealing percentage barely trails five-time Fielding Bible Award winner Yadier Molina, who threw out 37.6 percent of runners over the same time period. Hopefully, his new contract is an indication of an increase in playing time. Ross definitely deserves it.”
November 20th, 20125:57 pm
I still like Span out there and whether they admit it or not, Upton projects better over time as a corner OF…
Agree, and this is the only option that has a tiny sliver of a chance that I’ll be okay with the move. If he’s going to be in CF (which is almost guaranteed) I can’t agree with it. But with the money he’s gonna be paid, he’ll be playing CF. I’d rather see Span, Fowler, Bourjos out there.
Yes, you would have, but I’m not anal nor did I desire getting into the comparison on the sub atomic level.
LOL that is fine. I just like to go into the nitty gritty details sometimes, esp. when it can help my case.
Heck, give up the farm for Justin Upton (or Olt/Myers!), send Hanson and Spruill for Span, let’s go play ball. Sims and Graham will be left, we can get more pitching in the draft next year. Just not college, polished soft-tossers please.
November 20th, 20125:58 pm
While I’ll agree that it was a good season, you have to understand why people (me too) are frustrated that the Braves have won 1 postseason game in the past 7 years, and 0 postseason series since 2001
November 20th, 20126:00 pm
You could win 162 games but it don’t mean crap if you lay an egg in the postseason. Years from now people aren’t going to be saying, “Yeah the Giants won the World Series in 2012, but did you see that the Braves won 94 games??!”
November 20th, 20126:01 pm
I’m all for giving up some of the farm for Olt and Gentry.
November 20th, 20126:08 pm
OLT and TAVARAS
November 20th, 20126:09 pm
Or OLT and MYERS
Every team’s top prospect for Hanson in a 30 team trade
November 20th, 20126:14 pm
Go with a different approach, trade for both Fowler and Span, and still have enough money to sign Grienke lol….
November 20th, 20126:15 pm
Also, the Braves get Miguel Cabrera and CC Sabathia in the deal.
November 20th, 20126:17 pm
Those of you who remember Ella Guru Records, my man Don has re-opened a smaller version at LaVista and Oak Grove, over here a few miles from Emory and about a mile east down LaVista from his old location at Toco Hill Shopping Center. Now he’s in shopping center where Oak Grove Market is; he’s between a great Mexican restaurant (Taqueria El Vecino) and one of those Growler beer joints.
Oh, and his Twitter feed is @itstheblimp (Captain Beefheart fans know the reference).
We’d have to give up some of our pitching to add both outfielders, then we wouldn’t have the depth at Starter, so we bolster it big time with Grienke. But also Span and Fowler will cost roughly 8 million total or so. Just a bullcrap idea I thought of. Figure I’d get approval from the “We need Grienke” crowd.
November 20th, 20126:23 pm
B. J. Upton to the Phillies. Let’s keep Bourn.
November 20th, 20126:28 pm
No on BJ, that was a fake Twitter account and post…sorry, I thought I had a scoop.
November 20th, 20126:31 pm
Yeah so did DOB.
Oh, I don’t know, 162 and 0 would probably be talked about for a long time. Failing to win in the postseason would just make it even crazier.
November 20th, 20126:34 pm
Probably some a-hole phillthy fan.
November 20th, 20126:35 pm
True. I stand corrected.
November 20th, 20126:36 pm
“Hey remember when the Braves went undefeated in the season but couldn’t advance in the playoffs??! That was crazy. Who won the World Series that year?”
November 20th, 20126:41 pm
Hopefully, his new contract is an indication of an increase in playing time. Ross definitely deserves it.”
I always thought Ross’ defense benefited from his limited playing time. I would expect it to fall off if he plays more often in Boston.
November 20th, 20126:42 pm
Ha, that sounds about right, jeffrey.
November 20th, 20126:44 pm
“Go with a different approach, trade for both Fowler and Span, and still have enough money to sign Grienke lol….”
While you probably could do worse, I’m not sold on needing Greinke. But would like some payroll flexibility and trade chips to make a mid-season move if need be.
That being said, I agree in theory with you. Go with Fowler and Span (adding some speed since we’re losing speed with Bourn), and then fortify the bench.
Worst case scenario you have legit backups in case of injury, or platoon partners if somebody struggles.
But I’m really not for “maxing” out the alleged available payroll whatever that amount might be.
I’d rather Wren spent wisely, than spent crazily because the money is available.
Ha, the Upton “signing” reported on the fake Twitter account apparently fooled a lot of us for a moment. But B.J. himself refuted it quickly on his Twitter account:
I have NOT signed- that is a false report from a fake twitter account. Just because its on the Internet doesn’t make it true people
November 20th, 20126:48 pm
I’m all for Upton. Just Justin, not BJ
November 20th, 20126:50 pm
“I’m all for Upton. Just Justin, not BJ”
No on Justin, No on BJ. Yes on Kate. The only Upton the Braves should sign. $1 million a year to dance on the dugout and throw towels and shirts, should get it done.
November 20th, 20126:53 pm
And Kate. And as long as the hmm hmm is from Kate and not the 2nd Upton brother…
November 20th, 20126:54 pm
But I’m really not for “maxing” out the alleged available payroll whatever that amount might be.
November 20th, 20126:55 pm
1yr, $15mil for Kuroda to stay with the Yanks
November 20th, 20126:56 pm
“I’d rather Wren spent wisely, than spent crazily because the money is available.”
I’d love for him to spend crazily on talent. BJ Upton however isn’t talent and isn’t worth the contract. Now if we are spending money on guys like Willingham, Hamilton, Greinke, Bourn, etc. Fine. But don’t throw away $15 million on Upton. Not even close to worth it.
November 20th, 20127:03 pm
I think it would be great to do the following.
For Centre Field
Braves trade Tommy Hanson & Sean Gilmartin and perhaps even the rights to Jair Jurrjens to either the Rockies for Dexter Fowler or Twins for Denard Span. Either of them can bat lead off and won’t break the bank.
For Left Field
Braves Trade: Nick Ahmed & Randall Delgado to either the Diamondbacks for Justin Upton or to the Marlins that are holding a fire sale for outfielder Giancarlo Stanton. Justin Upton can replace Chipper Jones salary spot on the roster and Stanton would obviously be even cheaper in the meantime.
Sign Free Agent: Pitcher Zach Greinke which should provide the Braves with an Ace for a rotation of
Greinke, Hudson, Medlen, Minor Maholm, ( Beachy and Teheran)
We could even shop Maholm for those desperate for pitching help in exchange for prospects to replenish now or during next years trade deadline.
November 20th, 20127:08 pm
MFin04: Good stuff, I think Kate would be our best option, too.
November 20th, 20127:13 pm
Guys, you can’t use Chipper in comparisons straight-up, because he missed too much time. You’d need to amplify his numbers to match, say, 155 or so games or use “Braves third basemen numbers” … if you don’t do that, you’re going to overrate whoever you’re trying to compare Chipper/Bourn with.
November 20th, 20127:18 pm
You are correct Zing… adding that would make adding BJ Upton in any combination look worse though. Even with using Chipper straight up, he and Bourn were still more valuable than any combinations I made w/ Upton.
November 20th, 20127:20 pm
Based on actual performance (numbers) not names on Jerseys….
I still say trade for Fowler and Sign Swisher.
November 20th, 20127:26 pm
Garry: Agree on Span, but I don’t think the Twins would take Hanson/Gilmartin. They’re probably looking for Teheran at least. I like the counterintuitive shift in focus to acquiring pitching with Greinke, but I don’t really feel like the Braves need him. They’ve got a strong rotation returning (Hudson, Medlen, Minor, Maholm, and Hanson/Teheran/Delgado… and eventually, the best of the lot, Beachy). So, I’m thinking the Braves will give up either Teheran or Delgado plus perhaps Ahmed for Span (though that might be a little much). Then, for LF, they’ll probably get a Ross-type guy and platoon him with Schaeffer/Gattis/R. Johnson, maybe even put Francisco at 3B occasionally and push Prado out there. They’ll still have a surfeit of pitching to possibly trade (maybe Maholm or Hanson if he’s proven himself, with Beachy about to come back mid-summer) for help over the summer and enough money to either re-sign McCann if they want and/or extend an offer to one or both of their big young boppers (Heyward and Freeman).
Or… they could try my all-in Josh Hamilton strategy! (Plus Span or Fowler).
November 20th, 20127:27 pm
I still say trade for Fowler
The one who’s hit .248 away from Coors? (.698 OPS)
November 20th, 20127:30 pm
OOOOOPS… meant trade for Span and sign Swisher.
November 20th, 20127:32 pm
Well crap I forgot someone was dumb enough to give Torii Hunter 13 million a season, So I guess 15 million a season for BJ makes plenty of sense… Player salaries are going threw the roof… bench players will be making 5 million a season, average guys making over 10, and so on…. Crazy… 90 million payroll isn’t gonna cut going forward unless we wanna be a team that trades away every good player we develop after there ARB years are over.
November 20th, 20127:34 pm
Nice alliteration…I’d go with Span over Swisher, though
November 20th, 20127:36 pm
Bourne’s road OPS in 2010 was .681. Including his time as a Brave, it was .711 in 2011.
Last July, I said I would prefer that the Braves trade for Fowler instead of Bourn since we would solve the CF position for a while. Little has changed to move me away from that position.
November 20th, 20127:43 pm
Ahmed and Delgado will likely not get us Upton and will definitely not get us Stanton. May help get us Gordon though
November 20th, 20127:44 pm
Good to see jeffrey is not in love with BJ like the BRAVES seem to be.
Nail in the Road
November 20th, 20127:48 pm
got no problem with upton……….gotta get what you can afford
November 20th, 20127:49 pm
November 20th, 20128:08 pm
Appel, Stanek, Austin Meadows are the top 3
Some of these suggestions for players on here are crazy as heck!
Check out this analogy. In race car terms it would be like someone going shopping for a fast car to win car races so they go to the Ford dealer to get a Mustang. Problem is they out of the big V-8 engine Mustangs so they settle for a small V – 6 and then try to sell it as a winner = Upton.
November 20th, 20128:09 pm
More like Denard Span, Dexter Fowler or Josh Willingham – and I’m not even sure those two will be enough for Fowler or Willingham.
November 20th, 20128:18 pm
November 20th, 20128:20 pm
Some good selections possible at our (hopefully 2) draft selections. There are some good power arms (92+!!!) along with some good college/high-school bats in the OF and at C. Eric Jagielo (3b/OF), Nick Ciuffo (C), Jacoby Jones (2b/OF), Cavan Biggio all look good to me.
November 20th, 20128:25 pm
Say no to Dexter Fowler. Twins not giving up Denard Span cheaply.
November 20th, 20128:45 pm
Gotta tell you I’m really confused as to which permutations of the possibilities to place in CF and LF. This much I’m sure of: Prado needs to be at 3B, and Cody Ross strikes me as a 4th outfielder at best.
November 20th, 20128:54 pm
…and if I read one more blogger suggesting Constanza in the outfield as a starter next year, I may start bleeding from my eyeballs…
November 20th, 20128:57 pm
I sincerely hope that Wren isn’t foolish enough to sign Upton and pay him $15mil per year. We already have Uggla and McCann and can ill afford another high paid failure on the offense. I’m amazed how many just assume that it’s a given that Uggla and McCann will return to better numbers in 2013. Uggla has sucked for most of the last 2 years and McCann has been crap since about the allstar break of 2011. Sure, it would be nice to see one or both of them come back like gangbusters, but the last 1 1/2 to 2 years has not been a blip on the screen. What we don’t need at this point is to add another failure to the mix. I would rather play Schafer, and/or Constanza and save the money than be stuck under a contract that will kill us for the next 4-5 years. Hell, it doesn’t even matter whether we get to the playoffs or not because we can’t win a playoff game. Stop me when I’m lying.
November 20th, 20128:58 pm
…and if anyone really believes that Schafer will be our starting CF next season, they are just so consumed with negativity that they’re blind…
I’d much rather have Constanza playing rather than Upton or some of these others I hear about on here. Then use the money to get another real player rather than pay waaaay too much for an error prone strikeout machine. We already have one of those we are paying waaaaay to much for.
November 20th, 20128:59 pm
OMG, what’s that warm liquid oozing from my orbital cavities?
November 20th, 20129:04 pm
oops! Sorry, I just ran into the wall. having trouble seeing right now.
November 20th, 20129:07 pm
And just to be clear, I am not a proponent of Constanza and Schafer starting in 2013. I’m just saying that if we are gonna put someone out there that is gonna fail, we should do it without giving up the bank to do it.
November 20th, 20129:08 pm
Overall no player makes sense for the Braves, we’ll either have to overpay a free agent to sign him or give up too much to trade for a player, so I guess were just screwed. Hope Jordan Schafer and Jose Constanza are ready, lol
November 20th, 20129:09 pm
Hamilton is not worth the money per year or the years on his contract. He is not young. He has significant injury history. He has a history of substance abuse with relapse.
would i love to sign Hamilton for 3 years $75 million? – of course. Trade pitching surplus for a CF – Fowler, Span, etc.
Do I want to sign Hamilton even if it comes at 6 years $150 million? NO way
November 20th, 20129:10 pm
Why would Schafer be beyond the realm of possibility for us? Afterall, he did it for half a year for us 2 years ago and barely hit .200 and we had a second baseman play all of last year and barely hit .200. Just a few years ago, Kelly Johnson hit barely .200 for a year or so. So, its not like we demand a certain level of competency all the time out there.
November 20th, 20129:17 pm
One thing is for sure. If we did go with Constanza and Schafer, we would have a great defensive outfield and plenty of speed.
November 20th, 20129:18 pm
“Sure, it would be nice to see one or both of them come back like gangbusters…..”
If one or both of them came back like gangbusters, we wouldn’t need to be looking at the top end contributors in LF and 3B.
If Ugga duplicated his season before joining the Braves and Mac reverted to his old self, this lineup would be fairly stacked at 5 of the 8 spots (Freeman, Heyward, Uggla, Mac and Prado), with a defensive guru at SS, who can also hit a little.
Leaving the need to be nothing more than league average in CF and LF.
It’s because Wren likely has little confidence that Mac and Uggla will for sure rebound to what they once were that he will likely overpay for somebody in CF and LF, either via free agency or via trade.
meanwhile somebody like Cody Ross will sign for about 12 million for 2 years somewhere after the dust settles and do exactly what we would need…… be about league average.
To me, “who” and “how much” Wren spends/gambles in LF and CF speaks volumes to what he reasonably expect from Mac and Uggla.
By around August of 2013, we’ll find out whether he guesse right or not….. however he guesses.
November 20th, 20129:20 pm
I meant CF in the first paragraph of the last post. Not 3B.
I can only assume that Prado will be the 3B unless Headley or Wright fall into Wren’s lap.
November 20th, 20129:23 pm
VaBravesFan – I agree with the above statement. No player is ideal for the Braves that is widely out there. There best bet is to trade for Fowler or Span and then sign someone to play LF.
the ideal bat for LF is Stanton, Braun (how’s that for your PED fix), etc. Not sure the Braves want to trade Medlen or Minor in a trade
November 20th, 20129:26 pm
At this point, I doubt there are very many left who have total confidence in Uggla and McCann. Just a select few on this blog that suffer from delusion.
November 20th, 20129:27 pm
Medlen and Minor are untouchable. We have 2 OF spots open. Gotta trade for one and sign a free agent for the other. This team will NOT go into next year with Jose and/or Jordan in the starting line-up…
Wren finally has a chunk of change to spend. He ain’t trading good prospects or Atlanta players to get that guy. He wouldn’t trade them when he was lower on money, why would he now?
Players like Span, Fowler, Willingham or whoever that would cost you some good prospects robably won’t be here.
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