Atlanta Braves | Trade targets: RHP Julio Tehran, SS Nick Ahmed
The Braves are set at shortstop for years to come with the exciting Andrelton Simmons. He is about as untouchable as any prospect in the organization, and that makes Ahmed expendable. (Word is the Rangers tried to use Olt to get Simmons in hopes of flipping him, Andrus or Profar for Upton, but the Braves wouldn’t do it.)
Ahmed, 22, was the Braves second-round selection in the 2011 draft and had a solid year at high Class A Lynchburg, both offensively and defensively while swiping 40 bases. Teheran remains the Braves’ top pitching prospect and once his command and control arrive, he should be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter for years. For the Braves, Upton would fit nicely in left field while Martin Prado could be moved to third base to replace Chipper Jones. While the Braves are known for sticking to a strict payroll, they are taking Jones off the books this year, and Upton’s contract would replace Jones’ in the budget.
If I was in Towers’ shoes I wouldn’t trade Justin Upton. I would rather spend time trying to sign his brother, B.J., who could play center field next to him, and use Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock as trade pieces and find lesser upgrades on the left side of the infield. I think both Upton’s have the potential of playing at even a higher level than we’ve seen especially if they are able to play together. Why not in Arizona?
I weouldn’t exactly say BJ had “no chance in any universe inhabited by humans” to be more than he was the past few years, but I think people need to realize that – as far as the realizing of potential goes – he’s been in the bigs for six full seasons and two seasons of 50 or more games. He is no longer a novice.
I think it would be wise to pencil him in or the numbers he’s been producing and not to expect him to all of a sudden “get it”. He is what he is – a fast, decent defender, who will hit for power, steal a few bases and strike out a whole lot while getting on base at a less than average rate and a pretty low batting average.
Yes, there may be some deviation towars the positive, but there is sufficient sample size to know what you’re signing and yto not hold your breath turning purple waiting for that break out season..
November 12th, 2012
11:21 pm
I would love to see a lineup of:
Span
Prado
Heyward
Upton
Freeman
Uggla
Simmons
Back up catcher
Pitcher
********************************
Good day all
I am shocked how many normally level headed bloggers like brian above want to see BJ UPTON here. If he came here he would be our next NATE THE GREAT, plus BJ has history of not getting along with his teamates.
I’m just trying to figure out why BJ Upton has stayed with one team so long if he is not a clubhouse guy, can’t get along with teammates and his attitude is subpar, like many on here claim. Just doesn’t make sense to me. I would love to have BJ Upton playing CF for the Braves.
I think the clubhouse stuff with BJ Upton is bogus. It’s more that he hasn’t lived up to his tools for whatever reason – attitude, etc. That doesn’t mean he is a bad teammate. That’s not something I’ve read.
Just depends on whether the Braves want to push in the chips on that hand, or wait for another.
I don’t think they will. I think they will make their bid and if he bites, he bites. But I don’t seem them going “all in” … pushing their chips in… just to get him. Wren really wanted AJ Burnett, and wouldn’t “go all in” with him either. Doubt he’ll do so with BJ. I think Wren realizes there is only one difference maker in the FA market and he’s got his warts. If you can’t get the Corvette why fork over similar cash for the Chevette?
I know he won’t play LF, which is quite unfortunate. That’s the only position I’d sign him to play. Since he won’t be playing that position, I wouldn’t try to sign him. CF defense is quite important to me, and since BJ is a bit of a loafer out there, does take bad routes, and his offense isn’t good enough to make me give him a pass, I’d not take the risk on him. Certainly not a 15mil one. I’d rather overpay in prospects for Span, Fowler, Jay, etc. Even Bourjos!
On Brian McCann’s health and timetable for a return:
Wren: “It’s so early in the off-season, but every indication is he’s doing very well so far. We’ll know a lot more in spring training, but if everything goes perfect, he shouldn’t miss more than a couple of weeks of the season. If there is a little extra delay, maybe three weeks. Right now, it’s hard to really put a date on it.”.
Simmons at leadoff?
Wren: “We’re looking at outside options primarily (for leadoff). If we don’t have Bourn back, I think we first look at outside options, but if our club came together and we couldn’t find a suitable outside (option), Simmons is probably the most likely candidate.”.
If they sign BJ, is there a LF who can leadoff available?
OnlyBraves – Have you actually watched Upton play CF for an appreciable number of games, or are you merely paraphrasing and parroting what some talking “expert” has already pontificated or just relying on that defensive alphabet soup of crap they refer to as fielding metrics?
the lineup listed above was under the assumption BJ was our #1 priority. If we sign him we need a CF/leadoff and I would like Span.
Instead of going for BJ Upton, I would obviously rather have Myers or Stanton but I still think those 2 are untouchable. In regards to Stanton, I would let the Marlins know I would be willing to go all in to get Stanton.
We’ve been going backwards. It’s now Thanksgiving and still nothing’s happened. But that’s okay FW–nothing urgent. It’s just the ENTIRE 2013 SEASON we are talking about! It is just your job to plan ahead and make sure that we don’t have any major weaknesses–like OFFENSE and CF and 3B. But that’s okay, don’t worry, get in a few more rounds of golf between now and late March…………we’ve come to expect this mediocrity. By late March there might be a few bones left with some meat on them that you can pick.
And the metrics just help to prove my point. Sometimes I do get dependent on them for players I haven’t watched a lot of, but I’ve seen enough of BJ to have an opinion on his actual play.
So you lead the world in posts on this blog, usually psoting about 16 hours a day, supposedly go to school and still have time to watch 200 games a year – of a team that isn’t even your primary focus?
BJ Upton has a 105 career OPS+ going in to his age 28 season. Michael Bourn has a 90 OPS+ going in to his age 30 season.
I don’t think anyone denies that Upton isn’t a good defensive centerfielder. (Well, I suppose there are a few folks out there who think he’s great but it’s a fringe group.) But there’s a decent chance that the overall value of the two players, once you consider hitting and age, will be reasonably close over the next few years with Upton have a chance to separate himself from Bourn in a favorable way going forward.
Felix – And how many other deals have you seen teams make so far? It’s not like everyone except us has their rosters ready to go, all Free Agent are signed and no teams intend to make a trade from here forward.
I agree that BJ’s CF play, or lack thereof, has gotten overblown. I have not heard he has an especially weak arm, and he has the speed. I have always heard fielding stats are less reliable than hitting stats.
But I agree with TOBF too, that if BJ is going to come her as a CFer (and I believe that is correct, maybe because some of the preceding paragraph is believed by FW), you are well advised to have a slick glove in LF. And since BJ is not going to be your .950 OPS bat, to balance out your weaker hitting OF acquisition, you need to think about two guys (BJ and whoever) both with ,850 OPS potential. Really, Gordon is the only guy who fills that bill. Gordon-BJ-Heyward would still probably be the top fielding OF in MLB, overall.
A problem with Gordon is his escalating contract. He makes 6M in 2013, but 12.5M in 2015.
Bennett Hipp @bennetthipp
Fredi on meeting with Upton: “At one point his agent goes ‘you know, this is the most I’ve heard (B.J.) talk’ in all the years he’s had him”
old man – I’m not advocating getting someone to play LF with a stone glove, but I think the fielding metrics are likely innaccurate and way overblow. The other day we were tlking about certain CFers making about 15 runs a year difference. That’s about a run every ten or eleven games. I think his bat would more than make up for that 10th of a run per game.
Shaun. Well said. Pretty much my feeling. I would pull the trigger on BJ, but have my fingers crossed when I did it.
Clearly a downgrade as a CFer from what we had. I just wonder if maybe his stats aren’t a tad deceptive. I never really heard he was horrid out there until a lot of stat-hawking by everyone (including me) on the board.
I watch 250-300 games a year, too – but I’m semi – retired and work at home (and can draw or paint while watching a game. But, then again, I only post a couple hours a day, have no school work to do and all day to do it (not to mention a good bit of the night since I’ma LOF and don’t sleep all that well sometimes.
I certainly could not have done all that when I was doing under grad work or in grad school.
I’m not sure there would be much drop off from what we saw from Bourn last year.. I’m just not buying that… did anyone watch Bourn during the second half of the season last year or for that matter watch him after we acquired him in the trade?
6 Things Justin Upton Does Better Than His Brother B.J.
Hit for Power, Score Runs, Save Runs Via Range Fielding, Win Awards, Control His Temper and Avoid Ejections, Negotiate a Contract
While Justin has saved an average of 46 runs above average during the course of his defensive career, brother B.J. has actually cost his team to the tune of 85 defensive runs saved below average.
I’m not sold on BJ – never been a big fan – but he might be about the best we could do right now, though he’s not who I’d target.
Still, I respect Frank Wren and if he’s that sold on him, then I suppose there’s something more there than most of us see. But let’s not go into it thinking there will be this huge improvement because he’s reached his “potential” cause we’ve seen what he is and that’s what we’ll be getting. Six full years in the bigs and 2 more years playing a third of a season is plenty sample size to go on.
Course one could swap out Upton for one of those left fielders should they prove a better CF than Upton. I think Upton will sign before Thanksgiving with either us of Philly. Nationals are waiting on LaRoche which limits their ability to sign Upton which, from what I’ve read, I think he will sign sooner rather than later.
November 19th, 2012
1:11 pm
Bennett Hipp @bennetthipp
Fredi on meeting with Upton: “At one point his agent goes ‘you know, this is the most I’ve heard (B.J.) talk’ in all the years he’s had him”
Not sure what that means? That it was a good meeting because he was talking?
Upton talking during the meeting shows interest. This increases the chance that he will sign with us.
I just worry about tying up a lot of money in another Uggla-type player. I trust Frank and his ability to put a competitive team on the field with limited funds. However, it was Franks trades that earned him my trust ie Bourn, Vazquez, Infante, Vizcaino, Maholm etc. He has made some good signings too though. Billy Wagner comes to mind.
If Upton is signed for CF does that eliminate interest in Willingham (backed up by Gattis) for LF? Does the LF necessarily have to be a speed guy?
1. Simmons SS
2. Prado 3B
3. Heyward RF
4. Willingham LF
5. Freeman 1B
6. Upton CF
7. Uggla 2B
8. Laird/McCann C
That might be too much of an adventure in the Left-Center gap, but if Simmons could handle lead-off, that lineup would mash. It also preserves my cherished Gattis fantasy. And also keeps the pressure off McCann trying to do too much, too soon.
old man, another thing is that people don’t seem to understand the concept of replacement level. Upton is a solid option when you consider how difficult it is to find even a halfway serviceable centerfielder.
How many centerfielders exist who can provide even decent value on both sides of the ball consistently at the major league level? There’s Trout, Bourn, Span, Austin Jackson maybe Revere, maybe Pagan, and that’s about it. That’s four sure things and a couple of maybe’s. That’s not many. If you can get a guy that can just play centerfield halfway decently and hit halfway decently, you’re helping yourself tremendously. People seem to think centerfielders who can both hit and field are falling off trees.
But there’s a decent chance that the overall value of the two players, once you consider hitting and age, will be reasonably close over the next few years with Upton have a chance to separate himself from Bourn in a favorable way going forward. – Shaun
Yes, but will he? I think Upton is just too big of a financial risk to a middle market (or whatever) payroll team, and I think that risk far outweighs the possible reward.
If we are to sign Upton, I really think trading for Willingham would help silence some skeptics on this blog. He’s a solid run producer and he gets on base. Upton’s speed in the OF would make up for his limitations defensively. Yes Bourn can cover more ground, but think about the HR numbers these guys could bring to the team.
We’ve been connected to Willingham before when he was a FA.
I would be kind of surprised if Simmons leads off, even if there is no prototypical leadoff hitter on the team. There are plenty of good options to hit leadoff if the Braves were to sign Upton and acquire someone like Willingham or Gordon or someone of that ilk.
That might be too much of an adventure in the Left-Center gap
With that defense, pick any fan, they could run from the SS position to the LF wall and not be caught by either fielder. The (lack of) range in that outfield would be depressing.
One thing is clear….maybe the only thing….about every player being talked about for the Braves, by trade or FA market.
EVERY player mentioned has people who feel strongly about them, and EVERY player has both fans and haters. Moves will be made (and I trust Wren and the Braves to make their best available moves, based on the information they have, and player availability). These moves will work out, or they won’t (or somewhere in between)…and there will be some who will complain, no matter what.
Jim Bowden’s proposed “trades for Justin Upton” are beyond ridiculous. His proposed trade for the Braves is “Julio Teheran and Nick Ahmed”. If that’s all it would take to get J. Upton, Wren would have the press conference scheduled for tomorrow. No way Arizona gives him up for that little.
tony austin, I think the most likely scenario is that Upton is at least as valuable as Bourn, in an average Michael Bourn-type season, throughout the length of his next contract. Upton just gets to that value in different ways than Bourn has throughout his career. It’s not a bad idea to take a shot on Upton’s upside knowing that the risk is him being merely a decent player instead of something near all-star level.
Also, again, even decent centerfielders are pretty hard to find and the Braves have no obvious centerfielders of the future coming up in the near future. So I don’t think the risk is as big as some seem to think.
Exactly. I wonder if going all out for BJ does not mean that FW is considering strongly the idea of Simmons or Prado in lead off. They say he will play CF, so why would you go get a LFer who plays a better CF? You wouldn’t. You would go get a solid bat to compliment BJ. Again, Gordon is the one guy who sticks out as doing that, yet really shores up your total OF glove situation. He can lead off, and has some pop as well, and is A++ with the glove. But apart from him, it looks like Simmons or Prado in lead off.
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1. Taxi Driver
2. Goodfellas
3. Mean Streets
4. Gangs of New York
5. The Departed
6. Raging Bull
7. Casino
8. The Color of Money
9. Shutter Island
10. The Aviator
If BJ Upton is signed to play CF then I believe Alex Gordon is the best fit for LF if a trade could be made. Willingham or Span would be my next choice. I only see Wren signing one OF from FA. The other will come from trade.
Shaun, apparently Wren indicated in his interview that Simmons would be his choice to lead off if an outside player were not found. I wouldn’t mind Prado as lead off myself, and bat Simmons 2nd, but Wren really, really likes Prado no. 2.
Now I imagine you would prefer something like this:
1. Prado
2. Heyward
3. Upton
4. Feeman
5. Willingham
6. Uggla
7. Laird/McCann
8. Simmons
It’s not a bad idea to take a shot on Upton’s upside knowing that the risk is him being merely a decent player instead of something near all-star level.
15mil is a lot of scratch to hand out to a guy who may be just a “decent player”, if that.
I understand what you are saying Shaun, but I have to agree with TheOnlyBravesFan 15mil is a lot of scratch to hand out to a guy who may be just a “decent player”, if that..
The story that hangs around this man is “has potential”. There’s only so long that “potential” will hang around, and if he’s yet to show it there’s no reason to believe that all of a sudden he will. If he has potential he obviously doesn’t want to use it or doesn’t know how to.
If the Braves had the Yankee payroll, then sure, sign him and see what happens. But they don’t have that kind of payroll flexibility and in my opinion it’s just too big of a risk for a Braves team to thrown 1/6th (or so) of their payroll at him.
I am not at all sold that we should pay $15 mil to BJ Upton, but this article made me feel a little better about the prospect of having him on the team:
Alex Gordon is way too expensive, specially if you weigh the price of prospects and salary escalations it would cost us.
12.5mil by contract’s end, a plus defender in LF, and a .300 hitter. Or 15mil for Upton, who’s a below average defender in CF, and a .300 OBP’er. I’ll take Gordon, even with the cost in prospects.
Y’all are crazy. Bourn isn’t coming back, Hamilton is down the list because he’s ridiculously expensive and yet another LH bat that would make only 2-3 RH bats in our everyday lineup? Upton is a good fit, I think a change of scenery will help a TON and it’s a good sign if Upton is talking more than his agent has ever seen before. Upton wants to play for a team other than Tampa and I personally would be stoked to see him in a Braves uniform and hope he shuts all the critics up with a first AB bomb!
I don’t know what is going to happen but like Lew said no matter who comes here either a lot of people won’t be happy, some won’t be happy, but it is guaranteed that people will still complain no matter who it is, probably even if it was Trout. I just know I don’t want a Willingham, Ross, or Pagan.
Like I’ve been saying Upton isn’t my 1st choice but I’m not so against it as many of others on here are like TOBF. I like the fact that he is still 28 and has that combination of speed and power like Heyward. I do feel like the more time that goes by, the less chance he picks the Braves. If the meeting went well and he liked what he saw a decision would be easy to make. If he is the Braves #1 priority and they have no problem making that known like they have in the press then they obviously made a good offer to which Upton hasn’t said yes to yet. We all know Wren likes to work quick so he knows what is left to take care of for his team needs.
I sorta like the idea of Ichiro for LF and BJ for CF.
As for paying that $15 or 16 mil per for BJ — hey, the price for good talent with that kindof upside is going up like it or not.
Either we pay or we focus on extreme value signs and hope they work.
BJ is on the verge of being a 30/30 man & his defensive rap seems to be a product of creative overanalization of sabermetrics.
Who care what route the guy takes to get to the ball so long as he gets there. I wonder if these stat heads use metrics for simple things in life as walking down the stairs or pouring a cup of coffee.
I read enough positive things about his range in CF, see enough highlight plays that its good enough for me to go in and just sign the guy if you want him. Plain and simple.
Ichiro for 2 yrs — that would help the OBP some. He has a good glove too.
tony austin, I could care less about potential people thought he had when he was drafted. All I care about his his potential for the next few seasons based on what he’s done in his pro career. That may not match up with what people thought when he was drafted but he’s still solid.
The Braves should sign Upton in hopes that he lives up to what some people thought he might do when he was drafted. They should look at him, see a solid player who can be serviceable in centerfielder and who is still in his prime, a rather young free agent. If they get anything beyond that, it’s gravy. But that’s good enough, considering how few solid centerfielders are out there.
I think many of you are completely overlooking the fact that there aren’t many centerfielders around who meet there expectations of playing good defense and producing around league-average or above offensively. That’s a huge factor in why BJ Upton is an attractive option.
Last year there were only about four players in the entire major leagues who would have met the expectations of some in centerfield.
Arkansas Transplant, Alex Gordon is one of the better defensive leftfielders in the game. He’s also a very good offensive centerfielder. I’m not all that concerned about his batting average, just his offensive value.
If the Braves could get Alex Gordon at a good price, they should do it without hesitation. But the Royals should ask for quite a haul for him.
4,357 comments Add your comment
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
12:02 pm
Give us Myers… they still have 2 more OF and good bats lefts. The pitching is worth it.
Efrim
November 19th, 2012
12:03 pm
Yordano Ventura has some JR Graham in him. Dominga Tapia from the Mets too. Guys that might end up as relievers.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
12:04 pm
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms-office/post/_/id/5394/five-trades-for-justin-upton
Atlanta Braves | Trade targets: RHP Julio Tehran, SS Nick Ahmed
The Braves are set at shortstop for years to come with the exciting Andrelton Simmons. He is about as untouchable as any prospect in the organization, and that makes Ahmed expendable. (Word is the Rangers tried to use Olt to get Simmons in hopes of flipping him, Andrus or Profar for Upton, but the Braves wouldn’t do it.)
Ahmed, 22, was the Braves second-round selection in the 2011 draft and had a solid year at high Class A Lynchburg, both offensively and defensively while swiping 40 bases. Teheran remains the Braves’ top pitching prospect and once his command and control arrive, he should be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter for years. For the Braves, Upton would fit nicely in left field while Martin Prado could be moved to third base to replace Chipper Jones. While the Braves are known for sticking to a strict payroll, they are taking Jones off the books this year, and Upton’s contract would replace Jones’ in the budget.
If I was in Towers’ shoes I wouldn’t trade Justin Upton. I would rather spend time trying to sign his brother, B.J., who could play center field next to him, and use Adam Eaton and A.J. Pollock as trade pieces and find lesser upgrades on the left side of the infield. I think both Upton’s have the potential of playing at even a higher level than we’ve seen especially if they are able to play together. Why not in Arizona?
Trader Jack
November 19th, 2012
12:04 pm
scoots
I’d steer clear of Victorino. He injured his right hand in Toronto in 2011,which was downplayed and has been receiving cortisone shots since then.
I’m no doctor, but wouldn’t be surprised if he has some tendon/nerve damage in that hand
Lew
November 19th, 2012
12:04 pm
I weouldn’t exactly say BJ had “no chance in any universe inhabited by humans” to be more than he was the past few years, but I think people need to realize that – as far as the realizing of potential goes – he’s been in the bigs for six full seasons and two seasons of 50 or more games. He is no longer a novice.
I think it would be wise to pencil him in or the numbers he’s been producing and not to expect him to all of a sudden “get it”. He is what he is – a fast, decent defender, who will hit for power, steal a few bases and strike out a whole lot while getting on base at a less than average rate and a pretty low batting average.
Yes, there may be some deviation towars the positive, but there is sufficient sample size to know what you’re signing and yto not hold your breath turning purple waiting for that break out season..
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
12:06 pm
And for the Indians, it’s Asdrubal Cabrera and Vinnie Pestano… they don’t NEED Upton though. Work out a 3-way.
Efrim
November 19th, 2012
12:08 pm
Really just looking for a 49ers W tonight vs. Da Bears. Colin K subbing for Alex Smith. Yikes.
George_George
November 19th, 2012
12:12 pm
brian
November 12th, 2012
11:21 pm
I would love to see a lineup of:
Span
Prado
Heyward
Upton
Freeman
Uggla
Simmons
Back up catcher
Pitcher
********************************
Good day all
I am shocked how many normally level headed bloggers like brian above want to see BJ UPTON here. If he came here he would be our next NATE THE GREAT, plus BJ has history of not getting along with his teamates.
ncbravesfan90
November 19th, 2012
12:15 pm
I’m just trying to figure out why BJ Upton has stayed with one team so long if he is not a clubhouse guy, can’t get along with teammates and his attitude is subpar, like many on here claim. Just doesn’t make sense to me. I would love to have BJ Upton playing CF for the Braves.
CB
November 19th, 2012
12:19 pm
Wow, Maryland going to Big 10.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
12:19 pm
I would love to have BJ Upton playing CF for the Braves.
2.15 RF, -5 to -10 Rdrs
Not sure I’d say that I love to see him playing CF. LF would be better if we do sign him. (though that’d be a bad idea as well)
George_George
November 19th, 2012
12:26 pm
Hillbilly
November 19th, 2012
10:43 am
Fredi G made it clear on XM radio this morning, that BJ was their top choice.
***********************
Now for sure I DON’T WANT BJ. FREDI is not good at evaluateing talent.
ncbravesfan90
November 19th, 2012
12:26 pm
“Not sure I’d say that I love to see him playing CF. LF would be better if we do sign him. (though that’d be a bad idea as well)”
BJ Upton will not play LF wherever he signs. He will play CF. Surely you wouldn’t rather have Schafer out there? Haha
Efrim
November 19th, 2012
12:26 pm
I think the clubhouse stuff with BJ Upton is bogus. It’s more that he hasn’t lived up to his tools for whatever reason – attitude, etc. That doesn’t mean he is a bad teammate. That’s not something I’ve read.
TennesseePaul
November 19th, 2012
12:34 pm
Just depends on whether the Braves want to push in the chips on that hand, or wait for another.
I don’t think they will. I think they will make their bid and if he bites, he bites. But I don’t seem them going “all in” … pushing their chips in… just to get him. Wren really wanted AJ Burnett, and wouldn’t “go all in” with him either. Doubt he’ll do so with BJ. I think Wren realizes there is only one difference maker in the FA market and he’s got his warts. If you can’t get the Corvette why fork over similar cash for the Chevette?
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
12:35 pm
for defense, I may! haha
I know he won’t play LF, which is quite unfortunate. That’s the only position I’d sign him to play. Since he won’t be playing that position, I wouldn’t try to sign him. CF defense is quite important to me, and since BJ is a bit of a loafer out there, does take bad routes, and his offense isn’t good enough to make me give him a pass, I’d not take the risk on him. Certainly not a 15mil one. I’d rather overpay in prospects for Span, Fowler, Jay, etc. Even Bourjos!
Gary O.
November 19th, 2012
12:42 pm
On Brian McCann’s health and timetable for a return:
Wren: “It’s so early in the off-season, but every indication is he’s doing very well so far. We’ll know a lot more in spring training, but if everything goes perfect, he shouldn’t miss more than a couple of weeks of the season. If there is a little extra delay, maybe three weeks. Right now, it’s hard to really put a date on it.”.
Simmons at leadoff?
Wren: “We’re looking at outside options primarily (for leadoff). If we don’t have Bourn back, I think we first look at outside options, but if our club came together and we couldn’t find a suitable outside (option), Simmons is probably the most likely candidate.”.
If they sign BJ, is there a LF who can leadoff available?
ncbravesfan90
November 19th, 2012
12:44 pm
“If they sign BJ, is there a LF who can leadoff available?”
Victorino, Pagan, or trade for Fowler.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
12:47 pm
A LF who can leadoff? Alex Gordon. He’s an even better defender than Prado was in LF. And with BJ in CF, we’re gonna need it.
TennesseePaul
November 19th, 2012
12:54 pm
is there a LF who can leadoff available?
Any player with a higher OBP than BJ is a better option at lead-off.
RC
November 19th, 2012
12:55 pm
“If they sign BJ, is there a LF who can leadoff available?”
Ichiro?
Lew
November 19th, 2012
12:56 pm
OnlyBraves – Have you actually watched Upton play CF for an appreciable number of games, or are you merely paraphrasing and parroting what some talking “expert” has already pontificated or just relying on that defensive alphabet soup of crap they refer to as fielding metrics?
Lew
November 19th, 2012
12:56 pm
Talking head “expert”
brian
November 19th, 2012
12:58 pm
the lineup listed above was under the assumption BJ was our #1 priority. If we sign him we need a CF/leadoff and I would like Span.
Instead of going for BJ Upton, I would obviously rather have Myers or Stanton but I still think those 2 are untouchable. In regards to Stanton, I would let the Marlins know I would be willing to go all in to get Stanton.
brian
November 19th, 2012
1:00 pm
for Stanton for example, would people be willing to trade Freeman (for example Freeman, Teheran, and Ahmed) -
it would mean signing LaRoche to his 3 year deal or trading with the Angels to get their ML ready prospect blocked by Albert.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
1:02 pm
Have you actually watched Upton play CF for an appreciable number of games
Probably about 200 in the last 3 years. Not as much as nolie, but it’s still a good number.
Lew
November 19th, 2012
1:02 pm
I think that trading Freeman would be a really stupid thing to do.
Felix
November 19th, 2012
1:02 pm
We’ve been going backwards. It’s now Thanksgiving and still nothing’s happened. But that’s okay FW–nothing urgent. It’s just the ENTIRE 2013 SEASON we are talking about! It is just your job to plan ahead and make sure that we don’t have any major weaknesses–like OFFENSE and CF and 3B. But that’s okay, don’t worry, get in a few more rounds of golf between now and late March…………we’ve come to expect this mediocrity. By late March there might be a few bones left with some meat on them that you can pick.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
1:03 pm
And the metrics just help to prove my point. Sometimes I do get dependent on them for players I haven’t watched a lot of, but I’ve seen enough of BJ to have an opinion on his actual play.
Lew
November 19th, 2012
1:04 pm
So you lead the world in posts on this blog, usually psoting about 16 hours a day, supposedly go to school and still have time to watch 200 games a year – of a team that isn’t even your primary focus?
WTF is your secret? Aderol or time travel?
reagan
November 19th, 2012
1:05 pm
Mountain…..Your 11:17 am post is Right On The Money as far as I’m concerned!!!…..every word!
Arkansas Transplant
November 19th, 2012
1:08 pm
Delgado, Ahmed and Salcedo to Texas for Olt and Gentry. Then sign Upton and call it a day.
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
1:09 pm
BJ Upton has a 105 career OPS+ going in to his age 28 season. Michael Bourn has a 90 OPS+ going in to his age 30 season.
I don’t think anyone denies that Upton isn’t a good defensive centerfielder. (Well, I suppose there are a few folks out there who think he’s great but it’s a fringe group.) But there’s a decent chance that the overall value of the two players, once you consider hitting and age, will be reasonably close over the next few years with Upton have a chance to separate himself from Bourn in a favorable way going forward.
O.M.G.
November 19th, 2012
1:09 pm
Lew, or full of crap!
Lew
November 19th, 2012
1:10 pm
Felix – And how many other deals have you seen teams make so far? It’s not like everyone except us has their rosters ready to go, all Free Agent are signed and no teams intend to make a trade from here forward.
old man
November 19th, 2012
1:11 pm
Lew:
I agree that BJ’s CF play, or lack thereof, has gotten overblown. I have not heard he has an especially weak arm, and he has the speed. I have always heard fielding stats are less reliable than hitting stats.
But I agree with TOBF too, that if BJ is going to come her as a CFer (and I believe that is correct, maybe because some of the preceding paragraph is believed by FW), you are well advised to have a slick glove in LF. And since BJ is not going to be your .950 OPS bat, to balance out your weaker hitting OF acquisition, you need to think about two guys (BJ and whoever) both with ,850 OPS potential. Really, Gordon is the only guy who fills that bill. Gordon-BJ-Heyward would still probably be the top fielding OF in MLB, overall.
A problem with Gordon is his escalating contract. He makes 6M in 2013, but 12.5M in 2015.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
1:11 pm
Bennett Hipp @bennetthipp
Fredi on meeting with Upton: “At one point his agent goes ‘you know, this is the most I’ve heard (B.J.) talk’ in all the years he’s had him”
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
1:15 pm
much of the Rays games I watch are during the summer… during the school year, I tivo and watch later
Lew
November 19th, 2012
1:16 pm
old man – I’m not advocating getting someone to play LF with a stone glove, but I think the fielding metrics are likely innaccurate and way overblow. The other day we were tlking about certain CFers making about 15 runs a year difference. That’s about a run every ten or eleven games. I think his bat would more than make up for that 10th of a run per game.
old man
November 19th, 2012
1:18 pm
Shaun. Well said. Pretty much my feeling. I would pull the trigger on BJ, but have my fingers crossed when I did it.
Clearly a downgrade as a CFer from what we had. I just wonder if maybe his stats aren’t a tad deceptive. I never really heard he was horrid out there until a lot of stat-hawking by everyone (including me) on the board.
old man
November 19th, 2012
1:20 pm
Has anyone done the eyeball test on BJ in CF, over a period of time?
I know he had some attitude/effort issues out there a couple of years ago, but other than that?
UKUGA
November 19th, 2012
1:20 pm
hmmm,
so the Braves used Chinese water torture on BJ Upton?
Lew
November 19th, 2012
1:21 pm
I watch 250-300 games a year, too – but I’m semi – retired and work at home (and can draw or paint while watching a game. But, then again, I only post a couple hours a day, have no school work to do and all day to do it (not to mention a good bit of the night since I’ma LOF and don’t sleep all that well sometimes.
I certainly could not have done all that when I was doing under grad work or in grad school.
Nowhere man
November 19th, 2012
1:22 pm
Tech and the Dawgs playing in their leagues Championships games who would have thought it.
Arkansas Transplant
November 19th, 2012
1:24 pm
I’m not sure there would be much drop off from what we saw from Bourn last year.. I’m just not buying that… did anyone watch Bourn during the second half of the season last year or for that matter watch him after we acquired him in the trade?
Nowhere man
November 19th, 2012
1:25 pm
If you are talking about giving that kind of money to Upton why not try for Hamilton?
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
1:26 pm
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1296725-6-things-justin-upton-does-better-than-his-brother-bj
6 Things Justin Upton Does Better Than His Brother B.J.
Hit for Power, Score Runs, Save Runs Via Range Fielding, Win Awards, Control His Temper and Avoid Ejections, Negotiate a Contract
While Justin has saved an average of 46 runs above average during the course of his defensive career, brother B.J. has actually cost his team to the tune of 85 defensive runs saved below average.
Lew
November 19th, 2012
1:26 pm
I’m not sold on BJ – never been a big fan – but he might be about the best we could do right now, though he’s not who I’d target.
Still, I respect Frank Wren and if he’s that sold on him, then I suppose there’s something more there than most of us see. But let’s not go into it thinking there will be this huge improvement because he’s reached his “potential” cause we’ve seen what he is and that’s what we’ll be getting. Six full years in the bigs and 2 more years playing a third of a season is plenty sample size to go on.
Nowhere man
November 19th, 2012
1:30 pm
Bobby just happened to be in town to tell some stories. Were they baseball stories or boxing stories with Pam.
Should have brought in Chipper E. Jones for his take on tongue and groove.
BravoMan
November 19th, 2012
1:30 pm
Where would Upton fit into this Braves line-up should he sign with us?
LF- Possibility of Fowler, Span, Victorino(hope not), Pagan
3B- Prado
RF- Heyward
1B- Freeman
CF- Upton
C- McCann
2B- Uggla
SS- Simmons
P-
Course one could swap out Upton for one of those left fielders should they prove a better CF than Upton. I think Upton will sign before Thanksgiving with either us of Philly. Nationals are waiting on LaRoche which limits their ability to sign Upton which, from what I’ve read, I think he will sign sooner rather than later.
Nowhere man
November 19th, 2012
1:32 pm
Chipper tweeting about his night at the Groove with his past exploits at Hooters is priceless.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 19th, 2012
1:34 pm
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
1:11 pm
Bennett Hipp @bennetthipp
Fredi on meeting with Upton: “At one point his agent goes ‘you know, this is the most I’ve heard (B.J.) talk’ in all the years he’s had him”
Not sure what that means? That it was a good meeting because he was talking?
Arkansas Transplant
November 19th, 2012
1:35 pm
LF- Prado/SS- Simmons
CF- Upton/LF- Prado
RF- Heyward
2B- Uggla
1B- Freeman
C- McCann
3B- Olt/CF- Upton
SS- Simmons/3B- Olt
P-
Nowhere man
November 19th, 2012
1:38 pm
Get ready to come up with a nickname for Upton.
Anderson=Loaf
Uggla=Struggla
Nate=McOut
Heyward=Wayward
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
1:40 pm
old man, there is plenty to like about BJ Upton, based on the stats, if we look at them appropriately and look at the appropriate ones.
Folks seem to be underrating him because of this and because of expectations.
O.M.G.
November 19th, 2012
1:42 pm
Lew, just doesn’t add up does it. (TOBF that is)
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
1:42 pm
old man, throw in age and skill set, as well and there is plenty to like. Not that he’s a superstar or anything. But there is plenty to like.
tony austin
November 19th, 2012
1:44 pm
I hope Upton’s nickname is Dodger, or Phillie, or even Blue Jay.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 19th, 2012
1:45 pm
Nowhere man
He’s got a nickname already…it’s Bossman Jr. son.
BravoMan
November 19th, 2012
1:46 pm
BravePack(FreeFan),
Upton talking during the meeting shows interest. This increases the chance that he will sign with us.
I just worry about tying up a lot of money in another Uggla-type player. I trust Frank and his ability to put a competitive team on the field with limited funds. However, it was Franks trades that earned him my trust ie Bourn, Vazquez, Infante, Vizcaino, Maholm etc. He has made some good signings too though. Billy Wagner comes to mind.
Lew
November 19th, 2012
1:47 pm
OMG – It is somewhat perplexing.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
1:49 pm
Get ready to come up with a nickname for Upton.
Struggle-a-ton
Phillies-ton-of-bricks
I just hope that his nickname involves him being on another team. It may get nasty real quick if he’s a Braves.
Lew
November 19th, 2012
1:51 pm
Nasty if he comes to Atlanta? You mean as opposed to nasty no matter who comes to Atlata?
Enquiring Minds Want To Know
November 19th, 2012
1:51 pm
If Upton is signed for CF does that eliminate interest in Willingham (backed up by Gattis) for LF? Does the LF necessarily have to be a speed guy?
1. Simmons SS
2. Prado 3B
3. Heyward RF
4. Willingham LF
5. Freeman 1B
6. Upton CF
7. Uggla 2B
8. Laird/McCann C
That might be too much of an adventure in the Left-Center gap, but if Simmons could handle lead-off, that lineup would mash. It also preserves my cherished Gattis fantasy. And also keeps the pressure off McCann trying to do too much, too soon.
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
1:51 pm
old man, another thing is that people don’t seem to understand the concept of replacement level. Upton is a solid option when you consider how difficult it is to find even a halfway serviceable centerfielder.
How many centerfielders exist who can provide even decent value on both sides of the ball consistently at the major league level? There’s Trout, Bourn, Span, Austin Jackson maybe Revere, maybe Pagan, and that’s about it. That’s four sure things and a couple of maybe’s. That’s not many. If you can get a guy that can just play centerfield halfway decently and hit halfway decently, you’re helping yourself tremendously. People seem to think centerfielders who can both hit and field are falling off trees.
tony austin
November 19th, 2012
1:52 pm
But there’s a decent chance that the overall value of the two players, once you consider hitting and age, will be reasonably close over the next few years with Upton have a chance to separate himself from Bourn in a favorable way going forward. – Shaun
Yes, but will he? I think Upton is just too big of a financial risk to a middle market (or whatever) payroll team, and I think that risk far outweighs the possible reward.
BravoMan
November 19th, 2012
1:55 pm
Enquiring Minds Want To Know,
If we are to sign Upton, I really think trading for Willingham would help silence some skeptics on this blog. He’s a solid run producer and he gets on base. Upton’s speed in the OF would make up for his limitations defensively. Yes Bourn can cover more ground, but think about the HR numbers these guys could bring to the team.
We’ve been connected to Willingham before when he was a FA.
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
1:58 pm
I would be kind of surprised if Simmons leads off, even if there is no prototypical leadoff hitter on the team. There are plenty of good options to hit leadoff if the Braves were to sign Upton and acquire someone like Willingham or Gordon or someone of that ilk.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
1:58 pm
Upto-nogood
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
2:01 pm
That might be too much of an adventure in the Left-Center gap
With that defense, pick any fan, they could run from the SS position to the LF wall and not be caught by either fielder. The (lack of) range in that outfield would be depressing.
raleighbravefan
November 19th, 2012
2:01 pm
One thing is clear….maybe the only thing….about every player being talked about for the Braves, by trade or FA market.
EVERY player mentioned has people who feel strongly about them, and EVERY player has both fans and haters. Moves will be made (and I trust Wren and the Braves to make their best available moves, based on the information they have, and player availability). These moves will work out, or they won’t (or somewhere in between)…and there will be some who will complain, no matter what.
RC
November 19th, 2012
2:04 pm
Jim Bowden’s proposed “trades for Justin Upton” are beyond ridiculous. His proposed trade for the Braves is “Julio Teheran and Nick Ahmed”. If that’s all it would take to get J. Upton, Wren would have the press conference scheduled for tomorrow. No way Arizona gives him up for that little.
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
2:04 pm
tony austin, I think the most likely scenario is that Upton is at least as valuable as Bourn, in an average Michael Bourn-type season, throughout the length of his next contract. Upton just gets to that value in different ways than Bourn has throughout his career. It’s not a bad idea to take a shot on Upton’s upside knowing that the risk is him being merely a decent player instead of something near all-star level.
Also, again, even decent centerfielders are pretty hard to find and the Braves have no obvious centerfielders of the future coming up in the near future. So I don’t think the risk is as big as some seem to think.
old man
November 19th, 2012
2:05 pm
Enquiring Minds Want To Know,
Exactly. I wonder if going all out for BJ does not mean that FW is considering strongly the idea of Simmons or Prado in lead off. They say he will play CF, so why would you go get a LFer who plays a better CF? You wouldn’t. You would go get a solid bat to compliment BJ. Again, Gordon is the one guy who sticks out as doing that, yet really shores up your total OF glove situation. He can lead off, and has some pop as well, and is A++ with the glove. But apart from him, it looks like Simmons or Prado in lead off.
BravoMan
November 19th, 2012
2:05 pm
DOB,
In honor of Martin Scorsese turning 70 I have listed my top ten favorite films of his.
1. Taxi Driver
2. Goodfellas
3. Mean Streets
4. Gangs of New York
5. The Departed
6. Raging Bull
7. Casino
8. The Color of Money
9. Shutter Island
10. The Aviator
P'cola Brave
November 19th, 2012
2:12 pm
If BJ Upton is signed to play CF then I believe Alex Gordon is the best fit for LF if a trade could be made. Willingham or Span would be my next choice. I only see Wren signing one OF from FA. The other will come from trade.
Enquiring Minds Want To Know
November 19th, 2012
2:12 pm
Shaun, apparently Wren indicated in his interview that Simmons would be his choice to lead off if an outside player were not found. I wouldn’t mind Prado as lead off myself, and bat Simmons 2nd, but Wren really, really likes Prado no. 2.
Now I imagine you would prefer something like this:
1. Prado
2. Heyward
3. Upton
4. Feeman
5. Willingham
6. Uggla
7. Laird/McCann
8. Simmons
No?
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
2:16 pm
It’s not a bad idea to take a shot on Upton’s upside knowing that the risk is him being merely a decent player instead of something near all-star level.
15mil is a lot of scratch to hand out to a guy who may be just a “decent player”, if that.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
2:17 pm
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
hamilton’s whole market is quite a #mystery. #brewers #mariners #orioles #redsox #phillies #braves http://cbsprt.co/Q5I44h
Mariners already out, Sox a wild card… we may have a shot, if Frank wants it.
Arkansas Transplant
November 19th, 2012
2:20 pm
Alex Gordon is way too expensive, specially if you weigh the price of prospects and salary escalations it would cost us.
Arkansas Transplant
November 19th, 2012
2:22 pm
It’s pretty much a 99.9% fact that Hamilton will not wear a Braves uniform.
tony austin
November 19th, 2012
2:24 pm
I understand what you are saying Shaun, but I have to agree with TheOnlyBravesFan 15mil is a lot of scratch to hand out to a guy who may be just a “decent player”, if that..
The story that hangs around this man is “has potential”. There’s only so long that “potential” will hang around, and if he’s yet to show it there’s no reason to believe that all of a sudden he will. If he has potential he obviously doesn’t want to use it or doesn’t know how to.
If the Braves had the Yankee payroll, then sure, sign him and see what happens. But they don’t have that kind of payroll flexibility and in my opinion it’s just too big of a risk for a Braves team to thrown 1/6th (or so) of their payroll at him.
Hillbilly
November 19th, 2012
2:25 pm
Get ready to come up with a nickname for Upton.
BJ Downton
O.M.G.
November 19th, 2012
2:26 pm
AT, so you’re saying there’s a chance? LOL
Hillbilly
November 19th, 2012
2:26 pm
BJ Upside
Puma
November 19th, 2012
2:26 pm
I am not at all sold that we should pay $15 mil to BJ Upton, but this article made me feel a little better about the prospect of having him on the team:
http://mlb.si.com/2012/11/19/justin-upton-bj-upton-possible-landing-spots/
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
2:28 pm
Enquiring Minds Want To Know, I just don’t know if Simmons is good enough offensively to bat very high in the order.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 19th, 2012
2:32 pm
tony austin: Exactly
Alex Gordon is way too expensive, specially if you weigh the price of prospects and salary escalations it would cost us.
12.5mil by contract’s end, a plus defender in LF, and a .300 hitter. Or 15mil for Upton, who’s a below average defender in CF, and a .300 OBP’er. I’ll take Gordon, even with the cost in prospects.
tony austin
November 19th, 2012
2:32 pm
Get ready to come up with a nickname for Upton.
Overrated
Wasted Roster Spot
Unmovable contract
jbailz23
November 19th, 2012
2:32 pm
Y’all are crazy. Bourn isn’t coming back, Hamilton is down the list because he’s ridiculously expensive and yet another LH bat that would make only 2-3 RH bats in our everyday lineup? Upton is a good fit, I think a change of scenery will help a TON and it’s a good sign if Upton is talking more than his agent has ever seen before. Upton wants to play for a team other than Tampa and I personally would be stoked to see him in a Braves uniform and hope he shuts all the critics up with a first AB bomb!
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 19th, 2012
2:33 pm
I don’t know what is going to happen but like Lew said no matter who comes here either a lot of people won’t be happy, some won’t be happy, but it is guaranteed that people will still complain no matter who it is, probably even if it was Trout. I just know I don’t want a Willingham, Ross, or Pagan.
Like I’ve been saying Upton isn’t my 1st choice but I’m not so against it as many of others on here are like TOBF. I like the fact that he is still 28 and has that combination of speed and power like Heyward. I do feel like the more time that goes by, the less chance he picks the Braves. If the meeting went well and he liked what he saw a decision would be easy to make. If he is the Braves #1 priority and they have no problem making that known like they have in the press then they obviously made a good offer to which Upton hasn’t said yes to yet. We all know Wren likes to work quick so he knows what is left to take care of for his team needs.
Disgusted
November 19th, 2012
2:37 pm
I sorta like the idea of Ichiro for LF and BJ for CF.
As for paying that $15 or 16 mil per for BJ — hey, the price for good talent with that kindof upside is going up like it or not.
Either we pay or we focus on extreme value signs and hope they work.
BJ is on the verge of being a 30/30 man & his defensive rap seems to be a product of creative overanalization of sabermetrics.
Who care what route the guy takes to get to the ball so long as he gets there. I wonder if these stat heads use metrics for simple things in life as walking down the stairs or pouring a cup of coffee.
I read enough positive things about his range in CF, see enough highlight plays that its good enough for me to go in and just sign the guy if you want him. Plain and simple.
Ichiro for 2 yrs — that would help the OBP some. He has a good glove too.
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
2:40 pm
tony austin, I could care less about potential people thought he had when he was drafted. All I care about his his potential for the next few seasons based on what he’s done in his pro career. That may not match up with what people thought when he was drafted but he’s still solid.
The Braves should sign Upton in hopes that he lives up to what some people thought he might do when he was drafted. They should look at him, see a solid player who can be serviceable in centerfielder and who is still in his prime, a rather young free agent. If they get anything beyond that, it’s gravy. But that’s good enough, considering how few solid centerfielders are out there.
ncbravesfan90
November 19th, 2012
2:43 pm
The Phillies appear to have Hamilton as a fallback option in case they don’t sign B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports.
And yet some people here don’t want BJ Upton on this team, while many teams view him and Bourn ahead of Hamilton.
Arkansas Transplant
November 19th, 2012
2:45 pm
12.5mil by contract’s end, a plus defender in LF, and a .300 hitter.
Alex Gordon is not a .300 hitter, and as far as plus defender.. I’m not sure I’d add the plus.
Soph
November 19th, 2012
2:45 pm
Get ready to come up with a nickname for Upton.
Psch, forget the nickname it’s gonna be new club time!
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
2:47 pm
I think many of you are completely overlooking the fact that there aren’t many centerfielders around who meet there expectations of playing good defense and producing around league-average or above offensively. That’s a huge factor in why BJ Upton is an attractive option.
Last year there were only about four players in the entire major leagues who would have met the expectations of some in centerfield.
Puma
November 19th, 2012
2:48 pm
Hamilton as a fall back plan…what?!?! Must be nice Phillies
Double down
November 19th, 2012
2:49 pm
BravoMan, good list. I’d put Last Waltz as #11.
Shaun
November 19th, 2012
2:49 pm
Arkansas Transplant, Alex Gordon is one of the better defensive leftfielders in the game. He’s also a very good offensive centerfielder. I’m not all that concerned about his batting average, just his offensive value.
If the Braves could get Alex Gordon at a good price, they should do it without hesitation. But the Royals should ask for quite a haul for him.