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4,357 comments Add your comment
richbrave
November 16th, 2012
12:47 pm
George_George
November 16th, 2012
12:40 pm
“……Good day all
I don’t know what some of you are thinking. BJ UPTON, NO WAY. Past three years hit has hit .237, .243, .246. I would spend no big money on a outfielder who cannot hit for a .250 BA. BJ UPTON just what we need another outfielder like JASON who can hit for some power but not for ave. Yes I know JASON had desent BA last year, but that was unuseal……”
George_George:
I thought SIMMONS was a quick study.
Three years into HEYWARD’s career and you’ve already spotted a trend in his BA. Interesting.
tony austin
November 16th, 2012
12:47 pm
I know occasionally a batter might strike out and reach first via a wild pitch. But that brings up the question of why is he swinging at a wild pitch?
Jerry
November 16th, 2012
12:49 pm
I wouldn’t trade Simmons for Upton either. Why would anyone trade to alleviate a problem in the outfield, just to create another problem at shortstop? And it’s genuinely tougher to come up with a really good shortstop. Just dumb.
RC
November 16th, 2012
12:49 pm
I would trade Simmons for Justin Upton.
Easy.
Are you sure about that, taking contracts and club control into account? Here are basically the two sides you would be choosing between:
Side A: 3 years of Justin Upton on your team.
Side B: 6 years of Andrelton Simmons on your team, plus $24 million (calculated by estimating Simmons to make roughly the same as Elvis Andrus through his arbitration years, and then subtracting that total from the salary that Justin Upton will make over that time period).
If we were just talking about trading players, Upton is the clear choice. When contracts and years of control enter the equation, it’s a lot tougher to justify such a trade.
P-Town Brave ©
November 16th, 2012
12:51 pm
Shaun-
Good point there….
Not only is the place an absolute dump and awful to look at as well, but its killed hitters….
In fact, Longoria’s success can be somewhat attributed to his ability to dead pull balls to their new shortened porch in LF….
BTW, here are Upton’s career numbers batting cleanup….and this mind you is without much protection in his Rays career…
.268 .361 .439 .800
I’d say even those are currently constructed aren’t too shabby and would improve the Braves club.
old man
November 16th, 2012
12:51 pm
RC: Good points. So I’ll say yes, but not easy.
Lew
November 16th, 2012
12:51 pm
Dubbed Loaf for too high expectations or his lackadaisical manner of play? It was the latter.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
12:52 pm
tony austin, hate the strikeout all you want. But the fact is they aren’t worse than other outs. How a player makes his outs just isn’t all that telling, no matter your emotional views of the strikeout.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
12:52 pm
I’m pretty sure that stuff you taste is filthy T-Hawk….
George_George
November 16th, 2012
12:54 pm
old man
November 16th, 2012
12:40 pm
I would trade Simmons for Justin Upton.
Easy.
********
GOOD GRIEF! We finnally have a good SS and some people want to trade him and use a untested rookie.
Tumbledown
November 16th, 2012
12:57 pm
Shaun- Your 12:30 was an excellent post that makes me warm to the idea of signing B.J. Upton. I am a long-time Braves fan who is recently starting to read about and grasp the new sabemetric models. I like when you incorporate such stats in making your arguments for a particular player. I do not like it so much when you refer to some holy war and make declarations against those who might have a more traditional way of viewing the game.
Sometimes the best way to advance a cause is to use a subtle approach and not bang the drums so loudly on an issue. Despite the recent MVP vote, I sense the sabermetric movement gaining steam, especially as long as the proponents act with a little more respect to those holding long-held traditional views.
David O'Brien
November 16th, 2012
12:57 pm
GOOD GRIEF! We finnally have a good SS and some people want to trade him and use a untested rookie. — George_George
Well, don’t worry, because that’s not going to happen.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
12:57 pm
“Loaf” was hitting .302/.333/.465/.799 on July 29 w/ 9 HR, 40 RBI. He just needed to stay healthy down the stretch, but he didn’t get the off days. Did he look a bit lackadaisical in the field at times? Yes, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t play well.
.312/.343/.480/.823 from May5 to July 29… .298/.327/.452/.779 from May5 to Aug 29
He wasn’t the biggest problem. KJ and Francoeur were.
P-Town Brave ©
November 16th, 2012
12:57 pm
RC-
No dice….
As good as the upside you can see from JU, the Braves have the toughest defensive position on the field finally filled w/ someone they can control long term as of now that can save them many a ball game and has a bat that is pretty solid as of now…
He is for all intensive purposes an untouchable player for me and he’s near the top of that list….in fact, if I only had the option of 5, he’d be part of that 5…
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
12:58 pm
Oh, boy. If the Braves do end up signing Upton, I can’t wait for the comments about him not loving baseball, being lazy, etc. because he doesn’t hit for a high enough average or drive in enough runs for some peoples’ liking.
RC
November 16th, 2012
1:00 pm
I like when you incorporate such stats in making your arguments for a particular player. I do not like it so much when you refer to some holy war and make declarations against those who might have a more traditional way of viewing the game.
I completely agree with this. I realize it goes both ways, and many times Shaun is caught in a situation where he is simply trying to defend himself against those that are attacking his statements without any logical basis. But it still tends to work a lot better to simply present the argument and hope people accept it than to present it and tell people why they are wrong if they don’t accept it.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
1:02 pm
It’s pretty amazing how many folks with an opinion on BJ Upton are ignoring Tropicana Field.
I don’t really care to go through all the posts to find out if this was a direct response to anything. It just stood out coming from Payne. OPS+ and all should balance out home park right? At any rate, Upton hit the same home and way for his career. It was identical. I don’t think anyone could “blame” anything on his home park…
_______PA__AVG__OBP__SLG__OPS
Home 2048 .252 .336 .422 .758
Away 2015 .258 .335 .422 .757
Lew
November 16th, 2012
1:02 pm
Loaf’s numbers at the end of each month as a Brave -
April -.200, .231, .320
May – .266, .294, .353
June – .284, .311, .407
July – .297, .330, .459
Aug – .287, .320, .436
Sept-.268, . 303, .401
Lousy in April, liousy in May, Better in June, Good in july, pretty good in Auugust and died in Spetember.
Two good months in the middle of the season and lackluster play in LF. That’s what I saw and wht the numbers tell us.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
1:04 pm
Two good months in the middle of the season and lackluster play in LF. That’s what I saw and wht the numbers tell us.
I do miss his blog posts from his blackberry during the game. That was good stuff.
RC
November 16th, 2012
1:04 pm
I can honestly see either side of a Simmons/Upton trade. I personally would prefer to stick with Simmons, for many or the reasons that P-Town outlined, but I do think it’s close enough that either decisions could be justified. Just wanted to lay out above what the teams would actually be trading, instead of it being incorrectly viewed as just which player is better.
old man
November 16th, 2012
1:04 pm
Bill James 2013 Projections, AVG/OBP/SLG;
BJ Upton: .248/.329/.436
Juan Francisco: .272/.308/.502
Tumbledown
November 16th, 2012
1:05 pm
If Ahmed were further along in his development, I would think more seriously about a deal revolving around J. Upton and Simmons. As it is, I agree that Simmons is nearly untouchable. His defense will be especially needed since the Braves, with the possible signing of B.J. Upton, will be getting weaker up the middle in CF and catcher.
George_George
November 16th, 2012
1:05 pm
David O’Brien
November 16th, 2012
12:57 pm
GOOD GRIEF! We finnally have a good SS and some people want to trade him and use a untested rookie. — George_George
Well, don’t worry, because that’s not going to happen.
***************************************************
Good, thank you DAVID.
Slowhiteguy
November 16th, 2012
1:06 pm
The Braves have a more realistic chance of signing Hamilton than they do trading Simmons.
Lew
November 16th, 2012
1:06 pm
Ten Paul – They were great. And RHR gave him the nickname pretty early in the season – not for fading in the stretch. She also gave MFIKY his nickname. We need her back to name all the new players we getthis winter.
MiaBchBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:06 pm
I was wrong on Wilson Betemit. I was really wrong on Andy Marte. I hope my words prove to be a whammy in favor of Ed, but I think that Salcedo will ultimately join Betemit & Marte in Braves’ ignominy.
Lew
November 16th, 2012
1:08 pm
Did Bill James project how many games Francisco would play?
David O'Brien
November 16th, 2012
1:08 pm
I got an email from the Forest City (N.C.) Owls of the Coastal Plain Summer League, to let me know they’ve offered Chipper Jones an assistant coaching job. About 3 months of work, total pay $1500.
Something tells me that’s not how he plans to spend his first free summer in about a quarter-century.
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:09 pm
And the same was true for the AL MVP voting. Front-office types thought it was an absolute no-brainer for Trout to win, and those in uniform thought Cabrera was a ridiculously easy choice. But when the Tigers made the playoffs and the Angels didn’t — voila — the easy out appeared for the writers. I don’t blame some of them for taking it, because the Cabrera/Trout decision was an impossibly difficult choice. – Buster Olney
Those front office types don’t know what the heck they are talking about……….
old man
November 16th, 2012
1:10 pm
I’ve got to think Wren, if he signs BJ, sees some things there that aren’t in the stats, that aren’t clear to most on this board.
What’s the anticipated price range for BJ, anyway? A bunch, right?
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
1:10 pm
How a player makes his outs just isn’t all that telling, no matter your emotional views of the strikeout.
So you are saying with this comment that the Braves could not tell anything about Heyward from 2011 based upon his repeated ground outs to 2nd? I’m fairly certain how a player is making outs helps in identifying weaknesses in said player’s swing and as such can be quite useful information. If one must get technical, I will grant that perhaps a coach or teammate can notice something in the swing first and then point to the outs as a result of that something. Either way, the outs are a helpful visual tool and it is exceedingly foolish to emphatically state outs are not all that telling.
RC
November 16th, 2012
1:12 pm
Simmons came up on June 2, and got injured on July 8.
Tim Hudson’s ERA prior to June 2: 4.60
Tim Hudson’s WHIP prior to June 2: 1.24
Tim Hudson’s ERA between June 2 and July 8: 2.41
Tim Hudson’s WHIP between June 2 and July 8: 1.10
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:12 pm
Juan Francisco: .272/.308/.502
richbrave
November 16th, 2012
1:13 pm
Some sour grapes coming out of Tidewater Virginia from parents who have had the UPTON kids on their travel teams a decade or more ago. But no allowance for growth on the field, or in their approach to baseball over the past one-two decades.
I’m not one to believe anything other than my eyes on a stat sheet and the field. So far, the sheet is all I have to go by.
And I’m a believer in the BRAVES scouting system. After all, they have been smart enough to look at my grandson ….twice so far.
So I’ll take either of the UPTON’s under advisement pending future considerations. And wait to see what they may do in a BRAVES uni on the field.
After all, we once had to deal with YUNEL, a similar sounding head-case to these young men.
I’ll abide by the selection process WREN has in place.
And for those who think WREN is not capable to be the BRAVES GM, I challenge you to do better while dealing with McGUIRK and LIBERTY MEDIA.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
1:13 pm
Those front office types don’t know what the heck they are talking about…
And apparently those writer colleagues of Buster are in fact just a bunch of lazy oafs looking for an easy out. Which really makes one wonder why Managers don’t have free reign over decisions… obviously writers are too lazy and dumb to care about asking tough questions.
RC
November 16th, 2012
1:14 pm
Did Bill James project how many games Francisco would play?
He projected Francisco for 92 games in 2013.
old man
November 16th, 2012
1:15 pm
Lew, 92 games, 246 plate appearances. He said 12 HRs, which is at about a 30HR/per year rate for a full-time starter, I imagine, based on the plate appearances. I’m guesstimating that it looks like around 45 starts and 45 pinch hits. It’s all pure conjecture, of course, but worth noting. James knows one or two things about baseball that I don’t.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
1:16 pm
…many times Shaun is caught in a situation where he is simply trying to defend himself against those that are attacking his statements without any logical basis.
Could you give me a link to the blog you’ve been reading?
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
1:16 pm
You already know that Upton, if he signs, is going to post a .298 OBP next season?
Yes. I actually used Nate Silvers’ model. It’s nice you know. Backed up with data and all that. Tells the future very well.
Lew
November 16th, 2012
1:16 pm
Well, if he plays 92 games then he’s part of a platoon – at least some of the time.
old man
November 16th, 2012
1:17 pm
Lew, at 4.5 PAs per game, and if Juan played all 162 games, James HR projection equals 36 HRs. Just to convert it to a per season figure.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
1:18 pm
Tumbledown, the disrespect more often (though not always) comes from the “anti-sabermetric” crowd (for lack of a better term). Actually most of the “sabermetric” crowd is not really pro-sabermetric more than they are pro-whatever can get them closest to the truth.
I can understand that. It’s natural to be somewhat disrespectful and abrasive towards someone who is bringing up data that may be forcing you to rethink your views, no matter how respectful the folks bringing up the data.
Best to just throw out the information that you need to throw out, as respectfully and as honestly as you can, and to not worry about whether some folks are going to take that as you disrespecting them.
If you are telling someone he/she is wrong and you are bringing reason and data, it doesn’t really matter how respectful you are or aren’t trying to be. Many are going to view you as being disrespectful simply because you are telling someone he/she is wrong, unfortunately, no matter how nicely you try to do it.
RC
November 16th, 2012
1:18 pm
After all, we once had to deal with YUNEL, a similar sounding head-case to these young men.
Based on media reports, the Upton’s are NOTHING compared to Yunel’s personality. I actually haven’t heard all that much bad about either of them, while a baseball exec was quoted a few days ago as saying “Miami is about to learn that Yunel makes Hanley look like Teammate of the Year”.
MiaBchBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:18 pm
What’s your take on the following, DOB: is Upton really a Braves’ kind of guy? The last time the Braves had anyone within the zip code of being a clubhouse cancer, it was Gary Sheffield, who by that time was a well-seasoned veteran who fell in line with Bobby Cox and The Braves’ Way.
Upton is a still-young, surly guy, who when things are not going well, becomes an evil carcinoma. If the Braves sign this character, I for one would be sorely disappointed. I mean, really, the guy’s played for some pretty competitive Rays teams, and Joe Maddon will probably not miss him one whit. He’s rather have a team full of Longoria’s than Upton’s; not that he’d ever say anything to that effect.
Lew
November 16th, 2012
1:18 pm
Then again – maybe not. He played in 93 games this year.
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:19 pm
Lots of speculation is all I can do. I don’t know what the Braves are thinking and what teams are asking for in trade talks. Not sure what the players are asking for in terms of money.
All that said, just really hard for me to see them keeping all of this pitching. I know, I know…Hunter and Upton were the two targets. But it’s still going to be a head scratcher for me if we don’t make a trade……
….and I usually am all for free agency and keeping prospects. Of course, that was back in 2009 when our system was one of the best in the sport. Not so much anymore, so ……trade em all!
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:20 pm
“I live a few blocks from Tropicana Field in St. Pete where the Rays play. I have seen Upton now for several years. I will say this he is good for the community. Active in charitable philanthropy, until this year. His agent had him pull back on that because this was his last year here. I don’t get that.
The other thing I have to noticed about Upton is that he is high on ‘potential’ and low on actual fulfillment on that potential. He strikes out with a regularity reminiscent of Hafner (albeit without the muscles), Sizemore, Branyan, Santana. Get the picture? The guy can’t hit. He is not worth what he is going to get paid, except that he does give to the community. Indians should stay far away. And I believe they will. He will be out of their price range. I can’t believe that unfulfilled ‘potential’ commands huge salaries these days. There are too many teams in MLB.”
Lew
November 16th, 2012
1:21 pm
old man – You don’t need to convince me – I still think they could do a lot worse than to platoon Francisco, Prado and someone who rakes against LHP in LF and at 3B.
Maybe not the optimal stuation, but certainly it would be a workable situation and likely pretty productive.
tony austin
November 16th, 2012
1:22 pm
tony austin, hate the strikeout all you want. But the fact is they aren’t worse than other outs. How a player makes his outs just isn’t all that telling, no matter your emotional views of the strikeout. – Shaun
I appreciate your position on this but I have to disagree. You have 100% better chance (save the wp factor) of reaching base when a player puts the ball in play versus a player who strikes out. Granted, this is the major leagues and most of the time hitting an infield grounder is going to result in a out, but there is that occasional error or ball lost in the sun or even beating it out. When you strike out, you are walking back to the dugout instead of running to first base.
Making an out at first is much better than striking out. That out you made may advance a runner to 3rd who happens to score the game wining run on a wild pitch.
I cannot hold a candle to your knowledge of the stats and how they work, but I feel that the strikeout is just a wasted out.
old man
November 16th, 2012
1:22 pm
I mentioned James’ projection to say something about BJ, and something about Francisco, and also to say something about BJ by way of comparison. I wonder if some of the people crapping on me about holding out hope for Francisco are also thinking BJ is a good idea.
I’m not against BJ per se, but you need to look at numbers.
He is projecting Juan’s BB/K percents as 4.5 % and 26.0 %, still terrible.
He is projecting BJ’s at 10.5 % and 25.8 % . Pretty damn bad as well.
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:23 pm
So Upton’s already met with the Braves and Phillies. Might meet with the Nationals or Rangers. I dunno, seems like a decision might be made before Turkey Day. Doesn’t seem like he would make a visit this week, sit on it for three weeks and sign during the Winter Meetings. That’s just me.
I’d bet Wren is waiting on that call before executing a trade. If Upton is a Philly, then a trade would most likely come down after. I don’t think Wren wants any part of Michael Bourn. Although he didn’t tell me that……
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
1:23 pm
Many are going to view you as being disrespectful simply because you are telling someone he/she is wrong, unfortunately, no matter how nicely you try to do it.
Please don’t make me go to the archives for all the examples of how “nicely” you do this. Just retract the implication that you do such a thing, and we’ll all be better off.
Lew
November 16th, 2012
1:24 pm
Shaun – Why do you think that if we’re as intractable as you seem to believe, that anything you say could “force” us to change our views?
You do realize that this is far from the first MVP race to have a divided opinion on who should win? How about Ted Williams hitting .406 and Joe DiMagiio hitting in 56 straight games?
In either instance, there is no loser. They all had hellacious seasons and whoever won they were all deserving.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:24 pm
.245/.291/.477/.768- This was Juan’s numbers this season vs. RHP, with a more avg. BABIP. With more playing time, his numbers would probably drop a bit. I’ll stick w/ my prediction. 25 HR/yr, about 10 with the 250 or so ABs that he’s projected to get by James. But, boy, he’d make a ton of outs. (Btw, he hit 9 HR in 165 this year)
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:26 pm
Baseball America Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects
By Conor Glassey
1. Nick Castellanos, 3b/of
2. Avisail Garcia, of
3. Bruce Rondon, rhp
4. Jake Thompson, rhp
5. Austin Schotts, of
6. Danry Vasquez, of
7. Tyler Collins, of
8. Casey Crosby, lhp
9. Eugenio Suarez, ss/2b
10. Adam Wilk, lhp
Just an awful list. They always have an awful list. But they keep winning. Sort of like the White Sox. And I think Dombrowski and Williams are similar in a lot of ways. Sort of how like Colletti and Sabean are. And Friedman and Daniels are.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
1:26 pm
TennesseePaul, I agree that viewing a player’s swing and perhaps where the ball goes and how hard they hit the ball and even whether a player makes contact is useful information. But just looking at a player’s strikeouts alone doesn’t tell us much, as someone was doing with Span versus Upton versus Bourn versus I don’t know who else.
As far as BJ Upton’s home/road splits, better to look at some adjusted stats rather than home/road splits, for at least a couple of reasons. First, you don’t know what kind of parks in which a player played the majority of his road games. Second, you don’t know how playing in a certain type of home park might affect a hitter’s performance on the road (not just his road stats but his actual performance). For example, a player hitting in Colorado for 81 games may feel like he’s hitting a sock instead of a baseball if he goes to play a game in Oakland.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:27 pm
He is projecting BJ’s at 10.5 % and 25.8 % . Pretty damn bad as well.
A walk rate double that of Juans, and a slightly lower K rate…
But I still don’t want either. Even if BJ can run and play better defense.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
1:29 pm
For example, a player hitting in Colorado for 81 games may feel like he’s hitting a sock instead of a baseball if he goes to play a game in Oakland.
I’ve seen you use this example before, and my experiences tell me it’s far from correct.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 16th, 2012
1:29 pm
http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/8636937/casey-affleck-direct-write-movie-josh-hamilton-texas-rangers-report
Another reason the Braves should want nothing to do with the Josh Hamilton drama parade.
George_George
November 16th, 2012
1:30 pm
Why B J UPTON would not be good for us, wonder if it runs in the family?
*****************************************
During the Rays’ June 27, 2010 home game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Upton loafed after a ball hit by Rusty Ryal into left-center field, allowing a double to become a triple.[12] At the end of that half inning, Evan Longoria approached Upton in the dugout, obviously to mention his displeasure with Upton’s effort. Upton immediately became irate at the criticism and argued face-to-face with Longoria, repeatedly pointing a finger in his face, until Longoria walked away while Rays player Willy Aybar grabbed Upton by the waist and took him away from the scene.
RC
November 16th, 2012
1:30 pm
Just an awful list. They always have an awful list. But they keep winning. Sort of like the White Sox.
It helps when you competition are the Royals, Indians, and Twins.
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:30 pm
I’m gonna guess it’s the first team to guarantee BJ Upton a sixth year. Like it was between the Braves/Yankees and they gave Burnett that fifth year. I’d bet the Braves/Phillies are around the same dollar amount of $15 million a year. But that sixth year to get him to around $90 million overall contract value is going to do it for him.
Matt the Brave
November 16th, 2012
1:32 pm
Personally, I’d like BJ Upton in the outfield. Personally, I’d like to see Justin out there as well, but I doubt it happens (too high a cost, still wouldn’t have a true leadoff hitter if we had both Uptons). Beyond that, the rumor is that the Uptons would end up being a distraction in the clubhouse somehow.
Also, to the people who want to trade Simmons….are you NUTS?! He’s going to end up being the best SS in the NL in about two years. He is beyond smooth in the field, plus he knows how to keep his head down and do the right thing already. He’s going to end up being a stud player for us.
tony austin
November 16th, 2012
1:33 pm
The Phillies can have Upton. The Braves would be better served to spend their money elsewhere.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
1:33 pm
Lew, this is the most recent MVP race, so it’s the one more likely to be discussed. But I’ll be glad to discuss the 2006 NL MVP, if you prefer, when a player that wasn’t even close to being one of the most valuable 7 players in his league actually won the award.
As far as changing views, I’m not sure I expect that. The way it normally works is that I’ll throw some data or some argument out there that contradicts what someone else has posted. Someone will find that to be annoying or disrespectful and things will escalate from there, as I try to defend myself and others try to hold on to their views.
old man
November 16th, 2012
1:33 pm
No one ever answered my Dexter Fowler question from yesterday. His OPS+ and wRC+ numbers still show a strong home/away split. In fact, the Rockies as a team still have a huge home/away split on these numbers.
If they are park adjusted stats, how could that be?
I love the idea of Fowler in the abstract, but his home/away splits terrify me.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
1:33 pm
As far as BJ Upton’s home/road splits, better to look at some adjusted stats rather than home/road splits, for at least a couple of reasons.
It’s good you rehashed this lecture, as your previous statement implied you had forgotten much about this, which is why I mentioned park adjusted stats in my comment. I included the home/road splits to help you along as that sermon appeared to have slipped your mind. You also seemed to be at a loss of the tenants of your most basic sermon… look at the stats. And there, even without park adjusting, was no difference between home field (Tropicana) and the rest of the parks he played in over the last 8 years.
Playoffs!!!
November 16th, 2012
1:33 pm
Lew—–Thanks for the monthly breakdown on the player you affectionaltly call “Loaf” The way I (and most objective observers) would interpret those numbers —–4 good months, and two bad ones (April and Sept)).
April was bad because he got hurt in Spring Training and was about 3 weeks behind when season started. September was sub-par because the 38–39 -yr-old was overused.
The only time I saw him “loaf” when he was going after a ball hit down the line in left. He knew it was a double, so why kill yourself (it’s a long season) A double is a double..
But because someone dubbed him “Loaf”, all the lemmings on the blog her piled on, and it stuck.,
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:35 pm
Oh, and while we’re looking at predictions… my CF
.262/.316/.411, 13 HR, 88 Runs scored, 57 RBI, 24 SB 6.7% BB, 20.2% K
Bum
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
1:36 pm
Beyond that, the rumor is that the Uptons would end up being a distraction in the clubhouse somehow.
It occurs to me that getting the security of a long-term market-value contract might be the thing that gets Junior’s head right. One could hope.
Lew
November 16th, 2012
1:37 pm
Yeah, OK. Lemmings. Right. Whatever.
Ray
November 16th, 2012
1:37 pm
I don’t think anyone can doubt the potential upside for BJ Upton. He passes the eyeball test in many ways. What cannot be ignored is his performance over the last 3 seasons. Are these a trend? Are they just blips on the radar? I don’t think anyone can spin a below 300 obp into a positive. Now if he is here just to hit homeruns and provide solid defense in CF then that is a different perspective. But as a high on base, decent avg with the home run production, its not there yet. The big question is if he comes here, at what cost?
Tumbledown
November 16th, 2012
1:38 pm
I understand that there are negative incidents out there involving free agents like Pagan and B.J. Upton. I also know that Torii Hunter made some conroversial comments. However, if the Braves are only looking for the perfect person to bring in, they might be looking for awhile. Unless there is a young Dale Murphy out there to play CF, the Braves just have to trust that the player’s positive attributes outweight the negative past incidents.
RC
November 16th, 2012
1:39 pm
Also, to the people who want to trade Simmons….are you NUTS?! He’s going to end up being the best SS in the NL in about two years.
I’d like to go on the record right now as saying I don’t think it’s going to take 2 years. I think he’ll be best in the NL THIS year.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:40 pm
Now if he is here just to hit homeruns and provide solid defense in CF then that is a different perspective.
Solid defense? Not happening. If you want a guy here to just hit homeruns, regardless of OBP, defense etc… we’ve got Juan Fran already.
old man
November 16th, 2012
1:41 pm
BJ has been so highly rated on some lists of FAs, that I was imagining 13M to 15M, times 4 years. That has been my assumption. Something like that kind of money, Is that right?
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
1:42 pm
the Braves just have to trust that the player’s positive attributes outweight the negative past incidents.
Who says you have anything to learn here, LOL? You just nailed the premise that 80% of the folks here forget, every day.
Plenty here would throw over Miss America because she had bushy eyebrows.
tony austin
November 16th, 2012
1:44 pm
I’d rather have today’s version of The Murph on this team than Upton.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
1:46 pm
I think [Simmons will] be best [SS] in the NL THIS year.
If he hits even a little bit and stays on the field, I think he has a very good shot.
I wonder if he’s lost his rookie status? I’m too lazy to look it up, if somebody wants to help me here.
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:47 pm
I wonder if he’s lost his rookie status?
He’s lost his prospect status. That much I do know. Believe 192 PA’s was his final total?
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:48 pm
Already lost it scoots
Projected to do basically the same as what he did this year… .289 avg, .351 obp, .416 slg
Justin Upton projected to be a beast as I expect. Near .500 SLG. Get him at all costs! Well, not Simba.
Tumbledown
November 16th, 2012
1:48 pm
ncscoots – I learn something new everytime I read and/or participate in this blog.
George_George
November 16th, 2012
1:49 pm
Ray
November 16th, 2012
1:37 pm
I don’t think anyone can doubt the potential upside for BJ Upton. He passes the eyeball test in many ways. What cannot be ignored is his performance over the last 3 seasons. Are these a trend? Are they just blips on the radar? I don’t think anyone can spin a below 300 obp into a positive. Now if he is here just to hit homeruns and provide solid defense in CF then that is a different perspective. But as a high on base, decent avg with the home run production, its not there yet. The big question is if he comes here, at what cost?
******************************************
SOLID DEFENCE IN CF? Read my 1:30 post
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:49 pm
182… and I believe the cutoff is 132??? or 123…
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
1:50 pm
TennesseePaul, and what exactly is wrong with what BJ Upton has done the last 8 years? Pretty solid, if you ask me.
Also, regardless of what he did on the road, chances are his home stats would look better if he had played his home games in a more hitter-friendly park.
And if one does a better job of information gathering, you’ll see which parks have brought down his road stats. Of the 10 road parks where he’s had the most plate appearances and performed worse than he has overall, only one (Fenway) is a hitter-friendly park.
He has a lot of plate appearances at Safeco, a lot in Oakland and a lot in Anaheim. All of those parks rank in his top 10 of parks where he’s had the most road plate appearances, and his stats take a hit in all three, as do all players’.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
1:50 pm
I learn something new everytime I read and/or participate in this blog.
Then, I’d say you’re assimilating the info pretty frickin’ well.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 16th, 2012
1:51 pm
tony austin
November 16th, 2012
1:33 pm
The Phillies can have Upton. The Braves would be better served to spend their money elsewhere.
Yeah like Cody Ross or Angel Pagan. 2 players who just can’t seem to find a permanent home, I wonder why?
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:52 pm
The Blue Jays have agreed to sign Melky Cabrera to a two-year, $16MM contract, Enrique Rojas of ESPNdeportes.com reports.
Hah! AA doing work.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
1:54 pm
Somebody dropped a little sumpin’ in AA’s cornflakes, man. Somebody remind him there are only 25 spots on his roster, LOL.
“Sign ‘em all. Let God sort ‘em out.”
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
1:54 pm
old man, it goes back to Colorado having a negative affect on a player’s hitting on the road. In other words, it’s not only that the stats take a hit away from Colorado but also the player himself. Again, hitting in Denver may be like hitting a golf ball so that hitting anywhere else may feel like hitting a sock. Kind of like when you open the fridge to pick up a gallon of milk expecting it to be full and heavy but it’s actually empty.
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:55 pm
SS Reyes
3B Lawrie
RF Bautista
1B Encarnacion
CF Rasmus
LF Cabrera
DH Lind
C Arencibia/Buck
2B Bonifacio/Izturis
Nice squad. And they definitely have the trade chips to beef up the rotation and/or bullpen. I also like the Melky signing for Anthony Gose. He was not ready to be in the majors everyday. Could use some more time in Triple-A.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
1:57 pm
MLB Trade Rumors @mlbtraderumors
Blue Jays To Sign Melky Cabrera http://bit.ly/ZYUIUy #mlb
Good OF work…. 2yrs, 16mil. Didn’t think he’d get that much this winter.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
1:57 pm
Efrim, you have to respect the Blue Jays. They are just relentless in acquiring talented players, warts and all, that other teams pass on. There is something to be said for that.
Efrim
November 16th, 2012
1:57 pm
Blue Jays have added $48 million in payroll for 2013 alone in the last week.
Patrick
November 16th, 2012
1:59 pm
The Blue Jays have agreed to sign Melky Cabrera to a two-year, $16MM contract, Enrique Rojas of ESPNdeportes.com reports.
Unbelievable that this cheating, ungrateful, overrated POS gets a contract this generous. I know Toronto’s “going for it” but I just lost respect for them.
Melky is going to suck, he’s going to suck because HE SUCKS. He always has until he took PED’s
8 millions dollars a year for a cheat. Gotta love the business of baseball…
George_George
November 16th, 2012
1:59 pm
Who would want to play in TOR? It is cold up there.
Tomahawkin (Suffering Fan)
November 16th, 2012
1:59 pm
BREAKING!
Blue Jays Signed The Melk-Dud!
2 years 18 Mill!
What a Joke! He should be banned from the game!
Ray
November 16th, 2012
1:59 pm
@George, I remember that incident. It was all over baseball tonight, espn, etc. I have not seen him play a lot. I have caught many games but I can’t say I have seen a huge amount over the last few years. I will give upton the benefit of the doubt of that incident. We had AJ here and we remember when Cox pulled him in the middle of an inning. My main point is what will be his primary purpose? Hit a lot of homeruns or are some expecting high obp etc?
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
2:00 pm
“What’s AA?
It’s a place where other GM’s go to talk about getting fleeced by the Toronto GM.”
Wanna see some more of that from Frank! Salcedo for Upton. Go.
Gary O.
November 16th, 2012
2:00 pm
Efrim,
I think Bourn will get at least $15 mil, but I will be surprised if BJ gets $15 mil. I think he gets $12 mil per. But I do agree that the 6th year could be what he is waiting on. And if I’m the Braves, I am not giving BJ a 6th year (unless it’s a mutual or team option).