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4,357 comments Add your comment
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
8:27 am
On another point, though, signing Upton does create some more options for another OF. If Upton plays CF, say, then a lefty OF in the other spot might work. If Upton is considered the righty power they’re seeking, then the other OF needn’t be a masher and might open up more leadoff possibilities. Dunno.
On the other hand, if they consider the guy a leadoff hitter, it would be a disastrous signing, in my opinion.
Ray
November 16th, 2012
8:29 am
If Upton comes here, I think it will either be a major plus or a huge bust. I think it will fall on the far side of each spectrum.
Ray
November 16th, 2012
8:32 am
For the Uggla haters and yes he has under performed in a big way. If Upton repeats last year’s performance along side Uggla, that would be down right ugly for everyone but Braves opponents.
Dadgum.....
November 16th, 2012
8:36 am
listened to you? I don’t remember seeing your name back when Prado was still in AAA and I was getting kicked around for saying he would be a good starting player when everybody said he was a mediocre scrub at best. I wish I could get back to those days on the blof so I could revisit all those folks who now claim to have been staunch supporters from the beginning.
———————-
Nolie……how time impares our memory. I have been on the blog since the year DOB started this thing. Saw Prado play in AAA as a matter of fact. I was probably the biggest supporter on here (next to you and Lew)of Prado during the Johnson vs Prado bantering 3-4 years ago. I changed my handle from Rock on to Dadgum that may have been why. Not looking to one up you and I respect your baseball acumen. As an aside, I also railed against the Braves trading Vazquez and Infante. Most thought those trades were good and would help the Braves. Wrong. I win.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
8:38 am
If Upton repeats last year’s performance along side Uggla, that would be down right ugly for everyone but Braves opponents.
The flip side of that coin, though…scary-azz lineup. Heyward, Freeman, and Uggla all have the capability of hitting 30+, Upton and McCann hitting 20+. Buncha big innings, if that happens.
Dadgum.....
November 16th, 2012
8:42 am
Nolie, I am pretty sure I started on this blog in 2003. If I remember correctly DOB came up from the Marlins beat in ‘02 so it could well have been in the blog’s 2nd year. Not positive. Time has impaired my memory.:-)
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
8:42 am
You dont want bj in center… Rays fans say he horrible, he little bit Ive seen of him was horrible, and the metric say hes horrible. And his offense likely will not be enough of a plus to overcome it. Put him in LF and get Span. Hed lead off as well, Im sure Fredi will hit BJ 2 or 5/6.
12+ mmil is a lot to commit to a gamble… he has been bad last4 years, why should we expect him to get better? Not to mention the loss of a pick and inability to overcome that contract if he does go bad for us
O.J.
November 16th, 2012
8:45 am
I wouldnt mind it if the Braves signed BJ then traded Hanson along with some others for Denard Span. Move Prado to 3rd.
Lineup would be:
Span
Prado
Heyward
Upton
Freeman
Uggla
Simmons
Laird
Until Mac gets back then its
Span
Prado
Heyward
McCann
Upton
Freeman
Uggla
Simmons
CrαZy
November 16th, 2012
8:46 am
Not sure how I feel about Upton? Guess it all depends on the contract. I don’t want to see a crazy contract for a guy with a 246 / 298 / 454 slash for last year.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
8:51 am
Lineup would be:
If they sign the guy, hitting him at 4 is probably not the best use. At least make him show that he’s not going to an out-machine before hitting him up in the lineup.
Besides, there’s nothing wrong with hitting Heyward and Freeman back-to-back. Just want to try to avoid hitting three of your LH sluggers in a row, I think. Uggla at 4 or 5 and Upton at 6 or 7, something like that, depending on the pitching matchup.
Disgusted
November 16th, 2012
8:53 am
What is the final $$$$$$$$$$$$ amount for Gerald Laird/
If they are paying him 2 mil a yr that is ridiculous for his skill set. He can;t hit a lick and his throwing out percentage is declining from what it was a few yrs ago.
He is not worth more than 1.25, maybe 1.5 max.
The cost of bench players is what is ridiculous, not the stars or impact starters. I have never begrudged good players the $$$$$$$$$ they get. They do something for you. Even top subs like Ross he earned what he got.
Laird — sort of shaky on this one, just does not bring alot to the table. He was great defensively but that was a few yrs ago.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
8:57 am
Spread it out oer the past 4…. .242/.316/.430 believe. Thats a pitiful 745 OPS. Why should he get more than 9mil a year for 3 years? Oh right, potential. Potential that we’ve been waiting to see for 4 years now. Makes sense. You wanna guy with an OPS like that, bring back Bourn. At least we know he’ll give us a good OBP/leadoff, play great defense, and actually try.
Trader Jack
November 16th, 2012
8:58 am
If a change of scenery, helps with his attitude and work ethic, he could be a real treat to watch. OTOH, if he brings his baggage with him, 5 or 6 years @ 12 mil per, he’ll end up having more haters here than Uggla and Mac combined
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
9:02 am
Upton should hit 8th until he shows something…
True on Laird, Disgusted. Just marginally better than Mac throwing out runners, but he still looks to be a solid defender and handler of a staff. He’s hit a little bit too.
Disgusted
November 16th, 2012
9:03 am
@TOBF — When a guy has a certain skillset, there are more than a few teams that have it in their mind that they can get more out of this guy — hence that is why you have a crazy overbidding for BJ.
I am with you on prefering Bourn, but teams see certain skills and the safe guards fall off the rail and the decision makers jump in the oocean thinking they will swim in choppy waves to Treasure Island cause they might get there.
Wren is not the only GM who sees that I am sure.
Hey, look how the overrated J.D. Drew got overpaid time and time again — never brought the big return he was supposed to bring. Great tools, etc, never the big bang seasons he was supposed to have.
Why do you think thay will keep on and on with Salcedo who has been a dud in Class A and an AFL bust. There has to be some tools scouts and talent evaluators see though you would never know it measuring his on the field results.
Potential, Potential. Never an exact science.
CB
November 16th, 2012
9:05 am
Well, at least we got TOBF away from talking about Bourjos.
Actually, if we sign Upton and cannot get another power hitter would not have a problem with trading for Bourjos and keeping defense strong and using extra money to strengthen bench or pitching. I still would prefer power hitting LF.
Disgusted
November 16th, 2012
9:06 am
True on Laird, Disgusted. Just marginally better than Mac throwing out runners, but he still looks to be a solid defender and handler of a staff. He’s hit a little bit too.
And that is fine TOBF, he has a useful role here, just want to know how much less than Ross he came in here for.
It the total saving is say, a million or two over two yrs that is plain cheap to downgrade in that area.
It they got him 2 yrs in the 2.5 to 3 mil range total well, can sort of see it half way.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
9:08 am
Ha! I was wondering what that pop was I heard last night. Turns out it was Payne getting the news Trout didn’t win the MVP. Wasn’t even close.
Disgusted
November 16th, 2012
9:09 am
Now that the Angels have lost Hunter I do not see them trading Bourjos — think they want to keep him for themselves.
And God Bless Wren if he can trade for Headley — I doubt SD and that new ownership want to move him now.
If I were a SD fan I would be so happy to rid of John Moores and get the new blood in there. I do not see them doing a Jeffery Loria and moving Headley for a bag of beans to save $$$$$$$$$ like Loria just did.
Disgusted
November 16th, 2012
9:13 am
I am still in Uggla’s corner — he has been horribly streaky but not nearly as bad as some make him out to be.
And he has played a better second base than I epected him to.
He as to get that BA in the 250-260 range and there would be less chirping about him.
CB
November 16th, 2012
9:13 am
Shaun is probably in his dark basement wailing away. Sad but true,he probably has Keith Law and Brian Kenney for company.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
9:14 am
Rock on CB! But w/ Hunter gone, I doubt that we could get him now… unless they really need a SP and would take Maholm or Hanson. (If it’s Maholm probably an overpay)
We could use the light version of Peter- Schafer. Well, maybe not. I just hope that the Braves don’t sign him with the intention of him playing CF. I’d rather he not leadoff, but I can live with that. But I don’t want him roaming CF. I like my defense out there to be strong.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
9:16 am
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Phillies met with B.J. Upton earlier this week.
Go Phils, go!
O.J.
November 16th, 2012
9:18 am
No on Upton to Phillies, the dude hit 28 homers in pitching friendly Tropicana, imagine how many he would hit in that bandbox of Phillies
DawgDad
November 16th, 2012
9:22 am
“So before convincing yourself that this will be another Garrett Anderson or Raul Mondesi sort of offseason for the Bravos,”
I don’t have to “convince myself”, I have the evidence of recent past off-seasons. Wren and the Braves have to convince me.
Last year Wren went into the season without a Major League starting shortstop. This year, it could be catcher and center field, compounded by the ONGOING dire and desperate need for a right-handed power hitter to bat cleanup between Heyward and Freeman, and the on-going presence of Dan Uggla. Am I confident, or convinced? In a word, NO.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
9:23 am
hoping that the switch to the weaker league helps too.
The league with the last 5 WS champions.
Or, it could be framed, the “smarter league” as the manager must work without a crutch.
raleighbravefan
November 16th, 2012
9:34 am
I say, go get both Uptons, and Utley as well. Along with Uggla, we’ll own the market for U’s, to go with the M’s on the pitching staff.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
9:35 am
I thought, as our dogmatic commentaries kicked into overdrive, that the baseball world was simply not big enough for the both of us, that the loser of this transformative election would be spiked into a different sports universe to follow Jeffrey Loria’s new Quidditch franchise (which, I understand, just traded its highest-paid keepers for a couple of secondhand brooms).
–Jon Paul Morosi
David O'Brien
November 16th, 2012
9:37 am
Upton’s visit with Braves at Turner Field on Thursday went well. Not sure if/when he’s visiting other team(s), or when he’ll decide. I wouldn’t expect it to be a protracted bidding-war scenario like those that Boras orchestrates, but don’t know if Upton is thinking he’d like to decide in a week, before Thanksgiving, or if he might wait till December.
Braves would play him at CF, by the way. Wouldn’t be looking to bring in another CF and move Upton to another position.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
9:39 am
Writers and fans show why they don’t work in major league front offices with the MVP vote and with the views of BJ Upton.
How many misinformed fans don’t want the Braves to go after Upton? What do the Braves do? Go after Upton because they know more than you.
raleighbravefan
November 16th, 2012
9:39 am
Scouting, and player evaluation, has to be one of the hardest jobs in baseball. You look at a 16-20 year old kid, using an aluminum bat, or maybe overpowering pitches against weak young batters, playing against questionable competition, and predict how they will perform in 4-5 years against the best players in the world. Daunting, to say the least. And few if any advanced metrics available, as well.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 16th, 2012
9:40 am
Disgusted…”I am still in Uggla’s corner — he has been horribly streaky but not nearly as bad as some make him out to be.”
Uh, for $13 million, yes he has.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
9:41 am
Dan Uggla his 2 years here has been roughly the same player his two years here as BJ has been for his career… slightly better OPS wise if we take out BJs first 2 years.
BJ Career OPS+- 105… since 2009- 102
Dan Uggla ATL OPS+ 103
phil
November 16th, 2012
9:41 am
Greetings from the distant and sunny Carribean….
Upton was in town, eh? I guess we’ll see.
Glad to see Cabrerra win the MVP….it was a no brainer. If Trout is for real, he’ll get his soon enough.
Anything else worth knowing happen the last 3 days?
raleighbravefan
November 16th, 2012
9:42 am
Yes, Shaun, we realize that you think we are all stupid. You don’t have to keep reminding us.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
9:43 am
TheOnlyBravesFan, Upton is the better defender and better baserunner, plus with his body type and skill set, Upton is likely to age better.
Again, the Braves’ front office realizes this. The fans who are anti-BJ Upton don’t.
abeeeewright
November 16th, 2012
9:43 am
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman … “Upton’s meeting w/ the Braves lasted more than three hours. Free agents have said Frank Wren and his staff are impressive in these settings”
I’ve got a two word explanation for this … “rally stripper.”
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
9:44 am
Braves would play him at CF, by the way. Wouldn’t be looking to bring in another CF and move Upton to another position.
Oh geez. Hope the LF is Gordon of KC then… otherwise, there’ll be tons of balls headed to the fence in the LF gap.
phil
November 16th, 2012
9:44 am
Uggla’s corner…..
Good grief. The guy has been a terrible disappointment. Will it get better next season? It should since it would be hard for it to get worse. He makes my stomach hurt…
Lemke's Knuckler
November 16th, 2012
9:44 am
The Braves are paying Uggla to produce his .500 slugging percentage from the years in Florida, not the .384 slugging percentage he turned in last year.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
9:44 am
raleighbravefan, you’re not stupid. It’s not a matter of wise or stupid. It’s a matter of paying attention. It’s not much of a mystery why BJ Upton is attractive to the Braves, unless you are keeping yourself in the dark for some reason, maybe biases or maybe you’re just misinformed.
P'cola Brave
November 16th, 2012
9:47 am
Didn’t realize Alex Gordon has hit leadoff as much as he has. Alex Gordon or Span would be a great addition to play LF for the Braves next year. Assuming Upton is signed for CF.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
9:47 am
yeah, sure Shaun…. keep thinking that. The kid hasn’t produced since 08, and to take the risk of paying him 12+mil and losing the draft pick is nuts to me.
Mikeyc588
November 16th, 2012
9:47 am
I’d like the power/speed combo from the right side that Upton gives you for sure. It’d be nice to have two 30/30 threats in the outfield for the next few years with Upton and Heyward. I’ve seen some people (e.g. MLB Network) scoff at Upton leading off, but Michael Bourn only had a .348 OBP last year and Upton has a career .331 OPB batting leadoff in 167 games. Upton has had his most success hitting 2 (.812 OPS) but the Braves have said publicly that they think of Prado as a prototypical #2 guy. Is it so crazy to hit Upton #1? I know it’s SUPER premature for this. Just trying to envision where he fits in our lineup, especially when McCann is back and healthy. Good problem to have, but still…
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
9:47 am
Good grief. The guy has been a terrible disappointment. Will it get better next season? It should since it would be hard for it to get worse. He makes my stomach hurt…
Wrong. The Braves are paying Uggla to produce wins. Sure, he’s been disappointing. But probably not as disappointing as some seem to think. He’s probably created more runs that people realize because they are focusing almost exclusively on homeruns and slugging and things of that sort instead of overall offensive run creation.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
9:51 am
TheOnlyBravesFan, what do you mean by “hasn’t produced”? He’s been an above-average offensive centerfielder and is going in to his age 28 season.
$12M a year for Upton is very reasonable. The Braves realize this. Anti-Upton fans don’t, of course, because they aren’t paying attention to the information that front offices pay attention to.
abeeeewright
November 16th, 2012
9:52 am
If the Braves replace Bourn with BJ Upton, they’d be replacing this slash line … .272/.339/.365 with .255/.336/.422.
Lower BA, similar OBP, more power.
BJ 125.7 SO/season versus Bourn 97 SO/season
Upton’s defense is not as good as Bourn’s.
In any event, it seems to me that such a move would leave the Braves in about the same place next year as there were last year, with only circa 110 games of Chipper to replace.
RC
November 16th, 2012
9:54 am
Writers and fans show why they don’t work in major league front offices with the MVP vote and with the views of BJ Upton.
How many misinformed fans don’t want the Braves to go after Upton? What do the Braves do? Go after Upton because they know more than you.
Shaun, while I actually like the fact the Braves are going after Upton, there is a fallacy in your logic. You are basically stating “because a major league club does it, it’s the right decision”. Major league front offices make mistakes all the time….they are run by human beings. You yourself have made the argument in the past that simply because someone is an “outsider” doesn’t mean that their opinion is invalid, assuming it’s based on data and facts. While I agree with you that Trout should be MVP and Upton is a good option for the Braves, I completely disagree with your argument that the Braves decision to go after Upton MAKES it a good decision.
Reasonable discourse is a big part of what makes talking about baseball so much fun. 99% of the time you do a great job of backing up your statements with reasonable logic, even if I occasionally disagree. This time the logic is simply not there.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
9:56 am
As Mark Bowman Tweeted, we shouldn’t overrate the “true leadoff hitter” thing. Look at how many games the Reds won and what their leadoff hitters did.
But there are plenty of candidates on the Braves that would work just fine in the leadoff spot. I would bet whomever the Braves insert in to their leadoff spot (even if it’s not a “prototypical leadoff guy”) will be as good or better than most leadoff hitters, in terms of the things that actual matter from a leadoff hitter.
Hugo Z Hackenbush
November 16th, 2012
9:57 am
The Braves “know more than you” when their opinions coincide with Shaun’s.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
9:59 am
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/11/mvp-aftermath.html
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
10:01 am
.242/.316/.420/.736 and 102 OPS above average, sure… but not worth his cost to me. Especially since he’s costing us on defense. 160 Ks a season, 69 RBIs, 20 HRs….
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 16th, 2012
10:02 am
Upton’s defense is not as good as Bourn’s.
Or Constanza’s
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
10:03 am
RC, true. Teams make mistakes. My point was simply that the Braves see all the appropriate things that make Upton worth going after just like front offices see all the appropriate things that make Trout the most valuable player. Many fans (and writers) don’t see these things, in these specific instances. But it’s also true in other instances some front offices, many fans and many writers don’t see the appropriate things, and sometimes relatively few people actually see what is appropriate.
jbill
November 16th, 2012
10:04 am
I for one hope BJ signs…he is just one piece of Wren’s and his staffs plan. Wren has said he has pitching to trade and I’m sure he has something lined up for LF and or third base. Don’t be surprised at what happens at winter meetings. Even Uggla may figure in something. The party will not end with BJ its just starting. Got to believe Wren is smarter than some of us old farts on blog since 2003. I’m just glad to see Braves doing something trying to get better.
Thanks DOB for all you do..travel over US to bring us up to date on our Minor League Players and Braves.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
10:06 am
TheOnlyBravesFan, I think you’re underestimating, to a fairly significant degree, how much the free agent market has valued performances like BJ Upton’s career performance, (on average, so not just taking in to account horrible deals or great deals for teams).
Murph
November 16th, 2012
10:09 am
One question….
Is BJ Upton a “premium” player?
RC
November 16th, 2012
10:11 am
One question….
Is BJ Upton a “premium” player?
Fully acknowledging that “premium” is a nebulous, subjective term, I would say that yes, he is someone that most would consider a “premium” player.
DAP
November 16th, 2012
10:11 am
shaun What do the Braves do? Go after Upton because they know more than you.
what do you think they see in him that we dont?
BravoMan
November 16th, 2012
10:12 am
I believe the front office is pushing for Upton for several reasons.
1. Obtaining an above average CF with a better arm than Bourn
2. Signing a player who could provide us with some of Chipper’s power and Bourn’s speed.
3. He’s only 28.
4. He’s from Virginia, possibly some family ties to the Braves ie. Billy Wagner.
5. He’s the best FA CF option available.
If the cost is right, this could be a pretty good fit and this will allow us to finally have a secure CF for several years.
jbill
November 16th, 2012
10:12 am
Is a Ford better than a Chev ? options everyone have.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
10:15 am
Braves would play him at CF, by the way. Wouldn’t be looking to bring in another CF and move Upton to another position.
That would certainly seem to rule out a trade for Span, and all the trade currency would still be intact. So, basically any OF (lefty or righty) who could play LF and lead off should be in play. Or maybe not even lead off, LOL. At least we’re not stuck looking at Cody Ross and Nick bleepin’ Swisher, if Upton signs.
Hitting in Philly is probably pretty appealing, though.
Hugo Z Hackenbush
November 16th, 2012
10:16 am
If a career OPS+ of 105 translates to a “premium” player, then yes, I suppose he is.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 16th, 2012
10:17 am
Shaun…”Wrong. The Braves are paying Uggla to produce wins. Sure, he’s been disappointing. But probably not as disappointing as some seem to think. He’s probably created more runs that people realize because they are focusing almost exclusively on homeruns and slugging and things of that sort instead of overall offensive run creation.”
There are no big disappointments or small disappointments…just disappointments. Hopefully, you’re not too young for Seinfeld to understand that line, but he’s been a disappointment. I’m not focusing on homeruns or slugging, I’m focusing on the fact that the Braves brought him here to be that right-handed force in the middle of the lineup, and he’s been one of the streakiest hitters (more bad streaky than good streaky) I can remember seeing in a Braves uniform. His struggles made it very difficult for the 2012 Braves to do as well as they did. And I think the manager would back me up on this, seeing as how he benched Uggla for a period of time. If he was producing runs like you say, then there would have been no reason to bench him.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
10:18 am
and this will allow us to finally have a secure CF for several years.
Assuming he doesn’t just sit in the corner of the clubhouse with his headphones on, and then play the field the same way.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
10:19 am
That would certainly seem to rule out a trade for Span, and all the trade currency would still be intact
Yes. But then you have the news from when Hunter signed. The news being, the team went into the off-season with Hunter and Upton/Bourn as targets… which would leave all that trade currency intact as well. Could be they weren’t looking to trade unless as a last resort.
RC
November 16th, 2012
10:20 am
BravoMan,
Agree with all points except for #4.
Ray
November 16th, 2012
10:20 am
With Upton there is an upside but his declining numbers do concern me. When your obp is below 300 that just isn’t good. If they do sign Upton, I would be a little surprised if they overpay for him. Wren is pretty good at signing players at a good value.
O.J.
November 16th, 2012
10:20 am
ncscoots, Span spent half the season in LF, so he is still an option
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
10:21 am
Lemke’s Knuckler, I want players to not be disappointments, of course. But ultimately I just want the players to be good enough to allow the Braves to win. To what degree a player is disappointing is secondary.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
10:21 am
Could be they weren’t looking to trade unless as a last resort.
Man, if that’s true, then I guess they really, really, really don’t like to trade pitching, huh?
Because if they don’t trade from the glut of pitching they have now, when would they ever?
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
10:22 am
As Mark Bowman Tweeted, we shouldn’t overrate the “true leadoff hitter” thing
As Frank Wren stated, “We’re looking for a true leadoff hitter.” Doesn’t seem to matter what we think, if Wren is wanting it, then that’s what he is looking for… or this could all just be hogwash again. Figured all along the goal was to smack down a fat contract to an undeserving player then turn around and hype them as “premium.” That would preclude any other stated needs or goals.
wheelz007
November 16th, 2012
10:23 am
You can never have too much speed on your team. If we get Upton, I’ll like it. Will add some pop, speed and athleticism to our line-up.
In a perfect world, we’d resign Bourn and then sign Josh Hamilton as a Free Agent but that’s not happening.
Upton is a RH bat. I think it would be a nice pick-up for the Braves.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
10:23 am
Take is away JoePo:
Argument 2: Cabrera was better in August and September.
Three things this time. First is, yes, Cabrera was better than Trout offensively those two months. He hit .344/.411/.670 to Trout’s .287/.383/.500. That’s better. Trout did score more runs, however. He stole 18 bases to Cabrera’s 0. He was still the much, much better defensive player. Was Miguel Cabrera really the better PLAYER the last two months of the season, or just the better hitter? I mean, if the MVP is only about who hits the ball in August and September, well, Prince Fielder’s .337/.453/.607 should have put him pretty close to Cabrera’s level as an MVP candidate.
Which leads to the second thing: Isn’t it interesting that Fielder and Cabrera both went cuckoo at the plate the last two months of the season. I wonder why. Maybe it’s because they are both extraordinary pressure hitters who rise to the occasion when it matters most, when backs are against walls, when time is up, when chips are down, when fat ladies is sinking. Maybe it’s because they have some sort of inner strength that others lack, some sort of clutch hitter gene that triggers when the team needs them the most.
Or — and I’m just spitballing here — part of it could be that the Tigers played Cleveland (last in league in ERA), Minnesota (second-last in league in ERA) and Kansas City (11th in league in ERA) 28 times in the last two months. I suppose that is at least possible. Meanwhile Trout played Oakland (2nd in ERA) and Seattle (third in ERA) 21 times, just those two teams.
Look, it’s never as simple as saying that ballpark factors or strength of schedule or anything like that makes all the difference. They don’t make all the difference. Cabrera hit good pitchers and bad all year — the guy’s a masher. But it seems impossible to me that people would divvy up the season like that — making games after August 1 sacrosanct — without taking that little tidbit into consideration.
And there’s the third thing. Take a look at July:
Mike Trout: .392/.455/.804
Miguel Cabrera: .344/.409/.677
Do you see it? Yep: Miguel Cabrera was almost exactly the same in July as he was in August and September. Seems he didn’t just turn it on August 1st because the team needed him. He’s just a really good hitter. Meanwhile Trout was otherworldly.
And … wait a minute: It looks like they played baseball in June too:
Trout: .372/..419/.531
Caberra: .311/.387.604
Hmm. And wait, what’s this? They played baseball in May too?
Trout: .324/.385/.556
Cabrera: .331/.371/.468
It’s fun to parse the baseball season into nice, bite-sized chunks to make a point. You know from Sept. 25 to October 3 — the last nine games of the season! The crunchiest of crunch times — Mike Trout thoroughly outhit Cabrera
Trout: .361/.465/.694
Cabrera: .313/.353/.500
And do you know what that means? Nothing. It’s the MVP. Whole season.
BravoMan
November 16th, 2012
10:24 am
RC,
Is he not from Virginia?
ncscoots,
“Assuming he doesn’t just sit in the corner of the clubhouse with his headphones on, and then play the field the same way.
”
Haha I really hope you’re not right about that.
TennesseePaul
November 16th, 2012
10:25 am
Man, if that’s true, then I guess they really, really, really don’t like to trade pitching, huh
Probably are quietly assuming Hanson will stink, Beachy won’t really be effective until next year, Meds will finally lose a game, and Minor still has some work to be done and thus are banking on serious depth.
Even if the worst doesn’t happen, probably wise to keep that depth considering the avoidance of desire to obtain Shields or similar. Either get that top of the rotation guy, or back fill pitching with as many arms as possible.
RC
November 16th, 2012
10:25 am
As Frank Wren stated, “We’re looking for a true leadoff hitter.”
Didn’t Wren also say in his interview with Bill Shanks (the hack) that they would be ok if they didn’t end up with a prototypical leadoff hitter, and they might look at giving Simmons a chance at leadoff?
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
10:26 am
TennesseePaul, hopefully Wren was looking for the best players that fit the Braves’ budget and trade scenarios and is considered secondarily about batting order spots. That doesn’t mean batting order spots don’t matter and that ideally the Braves would find a perfect guy for leadoff. It’s just that that should not be the primary factor. I think Wren and his team know this.
CB
November 16th, 2012
10:28 am
So,if BJ is playing CF then go get Justin or Willingham. Dang,that would be a nice lineup.
Murph
November 16th, 2012
10:29 am
1. Simmons
2. Heyward
3. Upton
4. Freeman
5. Prado
6. BMac
7. Uggla
8. Constanza
BravoMan
November 16th, 2012
10:29 am
Signing Upton could also put the Phillies in a bidding war with the Nats for Bourn which makes me happy.
RC
November 16th, 2012
10:29 am
BravoMan,
He is from Virginia. I have strong doubts that it will play any factor in where he eventually signs. He’s actually from Chesapeake, VA, which is about twice as far from Atlanta as it is from Philadelphia (and the Phillies are one of the other teams interested in him).
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 16th, 2012
10:30 am
Look I was as hesitiant and leary as TOBF and some others about adding Upton for not only his inconsistencies but attitude as well. I watched his highlights last night and looked at some of his tweets and interviews and feel better about him if the Braves signed him. The dude has a very nice swing that generates great power pretty easily. I know some of the stats are bad but I believe at age 28 he seems to have matured and may have figured things out with the bat finally as he lit it up the second half of last season. He’s been in the league for 10 years now which is amazing as he is still only 28. He has power and speed and with Heyward could be a force for years to come. Hey Bossman Jr is way better than a signing of Cody Ross for this team. I’ve changed my mind if we can’t land Hamilton Bossman Jr is my 2nd choice, especially if it’s for like 12-13 million.
Now I believe the decision is up to him between the Phillthies and our Braves. Why would he want to play for the worst fans in professional sports they cheer one minute for throwing 102 mph and then boo you the next for only throwing 99 mph. I think it’s a no-brainer.
BravoMan
November 16th, 2012
10:33 am
RC,
Yeah I had thought of that shortly after I wrote it. Hopefully Upton, any other FA, will see the Braves are in a better situation to win now and a little further down the road as opposed to the Phillies. That’s arguable I know; however, it is what I believe.
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
10:33 am
Span spent half the season in LF, so he is still an option
I guess, but it wouldn’t make sense to me to put the superior defender in LF. But, you’re right, they could go that route. Didn’t I just say my own self that Upton would give them more flexibility for LF? Guess I ought to listen to me, first, before declaring a player outta here.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
10:34 am
BravePack(FreeFan), the thing is that stats that matter aren’t that bad. In fact, they are fairly solid. He’s not Andruw Jones or Dale Murphy or anything but he’s been solid. Throw in his age, skill set, body type and he’s a very solid choice for the Braves to man centerfield for the next few seasons.
Lemke's Knuckler
November 16th, 2012
10:34 am
If I see Constanza in another lineup posting on this blog, I’m going to punch myself until I’m unconscious.
David O'Brien
November 16th, 2012
10:35 am
Nearly 3 yrs later, #Braves still waiting for prospect Edward Salcedo to flourish
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/11/16/braves-still-waiting-for-salcedo-to-flourish/
BravoMan
November 16th, 2012
10:36 am
1. Simmons-SS
2. Prado-3B
3. Heyward-RF
4. Willingham-LF
5. Freeman-1B
6. Upton- CF
7. McCann-C
8. Uggla- 2B
One could even swap Uggla and Upton around. Either way, really nice complimentary line-up. I’ve wanted Willingham for awhile and the Twins need pitching.
RC
November 16th, 2012
10:36 am
Hopefully Upton, any other FA, will see the Braves are in a better situation to win now and a little further down the road as opposed to the Phillies. That’s arguable I know; however, it is what I believe.
I think that’s a fair statement to make….not sure how Upton or any other FA will view it, but I can respect the opinion. My personal belief is that it’s very likely to come down to money. I don’t mean that as a greed statement exactly, but if you think about it from Upton’s point of view, you want to go to the place that makes you feel the most wanted. Assuming both teams are rolling out the red carpets to welcome you (like it sounds like both the Phillies and Braves are doing), the only way left for a team to show you how much they value you is how much they are willing to pay you. I think he goes with the higher bid (which could be either team).
CB
November 16th, 2012
10:36 am
Lemke’s, be careful. We are a cruel bunch here.
Shaun
November 16th, 2012
10:37 am
Simmons probably shouldn’t be near the leadoff spot. There are plenty of better options on the Braves.
RC
November 16th, 2012
10:39 am
1. Simmons-SS
2. Prado-3B
3. Heyward-RF
4. Willingham-LF
5. Freeman-1B
6. Upton- CF
7. McCann-C
8. Uggla- 2B
If this ends up being the roster construction, I’d prefer that Simmons slides down to 8 and everyone else moves up a spot. I also might flip Willingham and Upton, mainly because I feel like Upton’s speed could be hampered batting behind Willingham and Freeman (but it’s probably more statistically sound to leave them in the slots they are presented above).
tony austin
November 16th, 2012
10:41 am
I was doing a crossword puzzle last night and one clue was “Just say no”. It was only a 4 letter clue so I couldn’t put “Upton” there.
Murph
November 16th, 2012
10:41 am
BJ Upton has had a couple of really good seasons… look at his 2007 and 2008 numbers. Both had OBP’s over .380.
Who knows? Get him in the cage with the 2 hitting coaches right after he’s signed, get some of the kinks worked out, and he could be a super-productive hitter going forward. The speed is there, the plate discipline has been there in the past, and the power is pretty impressive.
I’m not as freaked out about the thought of signing him as I was a couple of days ago. I still think the Braves need to go get masher for LF, be it Willingham or the other Upton. Imagine…
1. Simmons
2. Prado
3. Heyward
4. Upton
5. Freeman
6. Upton
7. BMac
8. Uggla
Good hitting and speed 1-4, power from top to bottom… pretty impressive lineup.
DAP
November 16th, 2012
10:42 am
CB if BJ is playing CF then go get Justin or Willingham. Dang,that would be a nice lineup.
id like that.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 16th, 2012
10:43 am
Murph
I would think a player who can be a perrenial 30/30 player has to be considered “premium.”
ncscoots
November 16th, 2012
10:43 am
I also might flip Willingham and Upton
If the Braves were to acquire both players, I’d wager a sizable fraction of my vast personal wealth that Upton would be leading off Opening Day. That’s just Fredo. Upton might make outs like he gets gold stars for ‘em, but he’d hit at the top.
RC
November 16th, 2012
10:44 am
Murph,
There is no way that you will end up with Simmons and J. Upton in the same lineup. If the Braves are indeed to get J. Upton, it’s going to cost them Simmons in trade.
BravoMan
November 16th, 2012
10:44 am
In the words of Tom Petty.
“The waiting is the hardest part…”
Can’t wait till the Winter Meetings. Some get excited for Opening Day, others the All Star Game. I for one wait around for the Trade Deadline and the first week of December. And my college grades around those times reveal my dedication to following eveything on mlbtraderumors.com