Ross exit adds to Braves’ expanding to-do list

The following is my estimate of what I what I think will be the 50 biggest contracts given out this winter, based on average annual value (AAV). (I also did this last year if you want to check how I did.) I use AAV because that is what the MLB Players Association is most concerned with when evaluating contracts. When the AAV is equal, tie goes to the contract with greater overall value.

This is not my preferential order, and player salaries and terms are often based on position, supply and demand. To get a better feel for the market, I also talked to agents, scouts and execs who will be heavily involved with this offseason’s bidding.

A few other things to keep in mind as you read this list.

• Industry revenues continue to grow, and that will have a huge impact on free-agent contracts.

• The value of middle relievers continues to grow — expect their salaries to do the same. This particular free-agent class has a solid quantity of quality setup relievers, so expect some surprising salaries for their ilk.

• Corner outfielders are scarce outside of Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Cody Ross and Torii Hunter, but center field is deep with B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and Angel Pagan.

• There is only one shortstop on the board, Stephen Drew, and I think he will benefit from that significantly.

• I think Angel Pagan has a chance to become the Aaron Rowand of this free-agent class with someone overpaying beyond his abilities because of his successful 2012.

• Hamilton’s situation obviously will be the most interesting. He’s looking for seven years, but I think he’ll get five with a club option.

With all that said, let’s get to the value rankings.

NOTE: Ages are as of Opening Day 2013.

Josh Hamilton
OF
31
5
$115M
$23M
Analysis: His history of injuries, addiction and lapses on the field this year will prevent him from getting the type of contract length that players such as Joey Votto and Prince Fielder received. Four years would be the most appropriate length, but someone will offer him five with a club option. In terms of AAV, I think he will land just north of Votto and south of Fielder.
BEST FITS: Brewers, Rangers, Red Sox
Zack Greinke
RHP
29
6
$117M
$19.5M
Analysis: The former Cy Young winner is the top of the class, and his market value was set by the long-term contracts signed by Cole Hamels and Matt Cain earlier this year. I think he will get a little less than those guys, but not by as much as most people think because I think he proved last year that he can perform in any market size and in big games in a pennant race.
BEST FITS: Angels, Dodgers, Rangers

Michael Bourn
CF
30
5
$75M
$15M
Analysis: Johnny Damon was paid $13 million per year in his 2006-09 contract, Aaron Rowand brought in $12 million per year in his 2008 contract, and it won’t surprise me if Bourn gets paid more than both of them. He’s a Gold Glove centerfielder who can get on base and steal a base. He’s represented by Scott Boras, who will make sure Bourn gets paid more than Upton.
BEST FITS: Phillies, Nationals, Reds, Braves

B.J. Upton
CF
28
5
$70M
$14M
Analysis: There have been a lot of contracts given to outfielders in recent years that seemed crazy at the time and seem more insane in retrospect. (Jayson Werth and Vernon Wells are prime examples.) Point is, all it takes is one team to skew the market, and Upton will get more than people think. I like him more than Bourn, but I think Bourn will get a little more cash.
BEST FITS: Phillies, Nationals, Reds

Anibal Sanchez
RHP
28
4
$56M
$14M
Analysis: His value grew significantly in August and September, then skyrocketed in the postseason when he demonstrated that he could get it done on the biggest stage. I’m estimating that he will fall short of C.J. Wilson’s AAV of $15.5 million last winter but should be able to come close to Mark Buehrle’s deal with the Marlins.
BEST FITS: Tigers, Orioles, Dodgers, Royals

Rafael Soriano
RHP
33
3
$40.5M
$13.5M
Analysis: Last winter, Jonathan Papelbon was the only closer to get a lucrative multiyear deal. I expect Soriano to get the biggest deal of any reliever this year, but he won’t get a fourth year.
BEST FITS: Angels, Tigers, Nationals

Hiroki Kuroda
RHP
38
1
$13.3M
$13.3M
Analysis: We are waiting to see whether Kuroda will be accepting his qualifying offer of $13.3 million to stay with the Yankees for another year. The Dodgers might be willing to give him a two-year contract, but expect Kuroda to stay with the Yankees or return to Los Angeles, where his family was extremely happy. If he signs a multiyear deal, expect the AAV to be less than the qualifying offer.
BEST FITS: Yankees, Dodgers
Kyle Lohse
RHP
34
3
$39M
$13M
Analysis: Lohse has proved in the past two years that’s he’s a reliable starter with a great sinker/slider combo. I expect him to get a deal similar to one John Danks signed in terms of AAV, but Lohse’s age will limit the length of the contract.
BEST FITS: Royals, Orioles, Dodgers

Adam LaRoche
1B
33
3
$36M
$12M
Analysis: He’s coming off of a career year and has special value to the Nats because he brings balance to their lineup as a left-handed hitter. He received the qualifying offer but should command a three-year deal with a lower AAV.
BEST FITS: Nationals, Orioles, Indians

Nick Swisher
OF
32
3
$33M
$11M
Analysis: Swisher is incredibly consistent: Very good in the regular season, bad in the postseason. His poor playoff performance will work against him, but he can get on base, has some pop and plays with a lot of energy.
BEST FITS: Orioles, Phillies, Braves, Tigers, Mariners

Angel Pagan
CF
31
3
$33M
$11M
Analysis: As a key member of a title team, Pagan is poised to be overpaid. He was excellent in 2012 but still takes some bad routes in the outfield.
BEST FITS: Giants, Nationals, Tigers, Phillies

Dan Haren
RHP
32
2
$22M
$11M
Analysis: Haren is tough to predict because he is a West Coast guy who will only entertain East Coast teams if there is a big difference in dollars. If the medicals on his back are clean, there is a legitimate possibility he’ll get a third year or an option year; otherwise, he’ll get two years with incentive clauses based on innings pitched or games started.
BEST FITS: Dodgers, Padres, Cubs

Ryan Dempster
RHP
35
2
$22M
$11M
Analysis: Dempster was great with the Cubs in 2012 but hurt his value with a mediocre performance with the Rangers after a midseason trade. He could end up back in Chicago, but the Cubs would be signing him with thoughts of flipping him in July.
BEST FITS: Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Blue Jays
Stephen Drew
SS
30
3
$30M
$10M
Analysis: Knee problems have hindered Drew’s play, but if healthy, he could be a bargain as a shortstop with pop and on-base skills. However, the lack of shortstops on the market could drive up his price.
BEST FITS: A’s, Red Sox, Cardinals, Pirates, Twins

Edwin Jackson
RHP
29
3
$30M
$10M
Analysis: He’s a durable midrotation starter who has been an integral part of two straight playoff teams. Toronto seems to be most interested.
BEST FITS: Blue Jays, Royals, Indians

Torii Hunter
RF
37
2
$20M
$10M
Analysis: Hunter would like to say with the Angels, but they didn’t give him a qualifying offer, which suggests they don’t want him back. He could end up as Swisher’s replacement in New York.
SIGNED: Tigers — 2 years, $26 million

Mariano Rivera
RHP
43
1
$10M
$10M
Analysis: He’s the greatest closer of all time and the highest paid in the sport at $15 million in 2012. The Yankees want him to come back, but, at age 43 and coming back from injury, they’ll ask him to pitch for less with performance bonuses that can bring it up if he stays healthy.
BEST FITS: Yankees
Andy Pettitte
LHP
40
1
$10M
$10M
Analysis: He was impressive in 2012 after no pitching in 2011, and there is no reason to think he can’t be just as good in 2013.
BEST FITS: Yankees

Brandon McCarthy
RHP
29
1
$10M
$10M
Analysis: He could be the sleeper of the class, and the A’s, Cubs, White Sox and Blue Jays have all been in contact with his agent. Injuries limited McCarthy in 2012, which could keep his cost down, but he really came into his own the year before.
BEST FITS: A’s, Cubs, White Sox, Blue Jays

Shane Victorino
OF
32
3
$28.5M
$9.5M
Analysis: Victorino is in decline, but he is still a quality outfielder you love to have on your side. His contract will exceed his talent because of his makeup, and he’s better suited for a club where he’s not asked to lead off.
BEST FITS: Reds, Braves, Giants

Mike Napoli
C
31
3
$27M
$9M
Analysis: He wasn’t able to repeat his incredible 2011, when he had a .414 OBP with 30 homers, but he still hit for power and can take a walk. He should stay in the AL, where he can DH.
BEST FITS: Red Sox, Astros, Rangers
Kevin Youkilis
3B/1B
34
2
$18M
$9M
Analysis: He can still play third and would be a nice stopgap for the Phillies or White Sox. And don’t rule out a return to Boston, as the Red Sox need a first baseman.
BEST FITS: White Sox, Phillies, Indians, D-backs

Russell Martin
C
30
3
$24M
$8M
Analysis: Martin’s .211 batting average will limit the market, but he did hit 21 homers. The Yankees don’t have a catcher and would like him back.
BEST FITS: Yankees, White Sox

A.J. Pierzynski
C
36
2
$16M
$8M
Analysis: Pierzynski is coming off of a career year, but, given his age, I doubt teams will expect him to repeat it. He’d like to return to Chicago, and I expect he’ll be back unless the Yankees step up.
BEST FITS: White Sox, Rangers, Mariners

Ryan Madson
RHP
32
1
$7.5M
$7.5M
Analysis: He missed the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and has a chance to be a real bargain. Someone will get a top-notch setup man who could be a real asset in the second half.
BEST FITS: Reds, Nationals, Rangers

Melky Cabrera
OF
29
1
$7.5M
$7.5M
Analysis: He was headed for a four-year, $40 million deal before his positive PED test, and he could be a good bargain for a club willing to take a gamble.
BEST FITS: Tigers, Blue Jays, Phillies

Shaun Marcum
RHP
31
2
$14M
$7M
Analysis: The health of his shoulder clouds his status, but he has a great feel for pitching and is a good mid-rotation starter when healthy. Just be sure to thoroughly examine those medical reports.
BEST FITS: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Cubs, Brewers
Joe Saunders
LHP
31
2
$14M
$7M
Analysis: He pitched well for the O’s after they acquired him from Arizona during the season, and manager Buck Showalter wants him back. He’s nothing special, but he’s durable.
BEST FITS: Orioles, Angels, Indians

Cody Ross
OF
32
2
$14M
$7M
Analysis: The Red Sox were wise not to give him the $13.3 million qualifying offer, as he surely would have accepted. He wants a three-year deal, but his low OBP will limit the market for him.
BEST FITS: Phillies, Tigers, Red Sox, Braves

Ryan Ludwick
LF
34
2
$13M
$6.5M
Analysis: He had a nice year for the Reds hitting in the cozy confines of Great American Ballpark, and is hoping to capitalize on that with the type of deal Josh Willingham got last winter. He’ll come up short, but could do better than expected due to the lack of good corner-outfield options.
BEST FITS: Reds, Indians, Tigers

Jonathan Broxton
RHP
28
2
$13M
$6.5M
Analysis: Broxton boosted his stock with a 2.48 ERA in 60 appearances last season and hopes to get a job as a closer.
BEST FITS: Reds, Rangers, Cubs, Twins

Brett Myers
RHP
32
1
$6.5M
$6.5M
Analysis: He’s bounced between starting and relieving the past few seasons and has let clubs know he’s willing to do both. Myers was good out of the bullpen (3.31 ERA) in 2012.
BEST FITS: White Sox, Pirates, Padres
Jeremy Affeldt
LHP
33
2
$12.4M
$6.2M
Analysis: The industry was shocked when he got a three-year, $14 million deal in 2010, but Affeldt proved his worth. As a lefty reliever who can get righties out he will be in demand, and he should get a raise in terms of annual average value.
SIGNED: Giants — 3 years, $18 million

Delmon Young
LF
27
2
$12M
$6M
Analysis: His off-field issues, poor defense and low OBP will hinder his market, but his postseason success will give him a bit of a boost.
BEST FITS: Indians, Mariners, Astros

Jeremy Guthrie
RHP
33
2
$12M
$6M
Analysis: Like most starting pitchers, Guthrie was relieved when he was traded at midseason from the Rockies to the Royals. At Coors Field he had a terrible 6.35 ERA in 15 starts, but he turned it around with Kansas City, posting a 3.16 ERA in 14 starts, and could be a decent low-cost alternative to Kyle Lohse and Anibal Sanchez.
BEST FITS: Royals, Blue Jays

Marco Scutaro
2B
37
2
$12 M
$6M
Analysis: Scutaro has found a home with the Giants and had the quote of the year during their World Series parade when he said, “I want 15 years, three thousand-million dollars, how do you like me now?” It certainly gave everyone a good laugh. I do think he’ll be able to get a two-year deal from the Giants.
BEST FIT: Giants

Lance Berkman
1B
37
1
$6M
$6M
Analysis: Berkman has been contemplating retirement and the Cardinals have made it clear they are turning the page. However, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has expressed interest in having Berkman finish his career with Houston, which could be a possibility now that the Astros have moved to the AL and could use him as a part-time DH.
BEST FIT: Astros
Mike Adams
RHP
34
2
$10 M
$5M
Analysis: Adams underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome Oct. 18. He will be out at least three months but should be ready by spring training. Adams had a 3.27 ERA in 52.1 innings pitched for the Rangers this past season and is still one of the best setup relievers in the league. He will do well in free agency with hopes of returning to the Rangers.
BEST FITS: Rangers, Padres, Red Sox

Scott Baker
RHP
32
1
$5M
$5M
Analysis: Baker is a solid back-of-the-rotation starter who can win in double digits while providing 180 innings pitched. There will be significant interest due to the shortage of quality starters in this class, and the Twins are hoping they can bring him back in the $5 million range like Chris Capuano got from the Dodgers last year.
SIGNED: Cubs — 1 year, $5.5 million

Francisco Rodriguez
RHP
31
1
$5M
$5M
Analysis: Rodriguez has settled his case against his former agent, Paul Kinzer of Wasserman; a settlement that landed Rodriguez $2 million. He has since been charged with domestic abuse and battery. He’s been happy with the Brewers, and if he can clear up his legal problems might return for another season. He appeared in a career-high 78 games last year.
BEST FITS: Brewers

Joakim Soria
LHP
28
1
$5M
$5M
Analysis: Soria could be the best bargain of this free-agent class. The Royals declined their option on Soria, making him a free agent as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. However, when he comes back, someone is going to have an impact closer and is going to be able to sign him to a low base salary contract that’s loaded with incentives and awards related to games finished and Rolaids Relief Man of the Year.
BEST FITS: Nationals, Yankees, Brewers, Red Sox
Kevin Correia
RHP
32
1
$5M
$5M
Analysis: Correia has won 10-12 games in each of the past four seasons, including going 24-22 with the below-.500 Pirates. He’s a back-of-the-rotation starter who can be expected to give up four runs with a WHIP of 1.3 in about 26 starts a year.
BEST FITS: Pirates, Padres

Francisco Liriano
LHP
29
1
$5M
$5M
Analysis: The White Sox were hoping that the left-handed starter would help them down the stretch to overtake the Tigers, but it didn’t work out as he continued his trend over the past couple of years of ERAs rising over 5.00 and WHIPs of more than 1.4. He could benefit from pitching in a bigger park and changing leagues.
BEST FITS: Twins, Indians, Pirates

Joe Blanton
RHP
32
1
$5M
$5M
Analysis: Blanton always is reliable, giving his clubs at least 175 innings with a chance to win 10 games if the bullpen and run support is there. He’s a back-of-the-rotation starter for a second-division club at this point in his career.
BEST FITS: Royals, Indians, Pirates

Jose Valverde
RHP
35
1
$5M
$5M
Analysis: Valverde saved 49 games in 49 opportunities in 2011 and helped the Tigers reach the ALCS. However, this past season, everything fell apart and not only did he lose the closer’s job for the Tigers, they were reluctant to use him at all when they reached the World Series. There is no one in this free-agent market whose value dropped more than Valverde’s did. However, someone will take a chance on him if the MRIs on his shoulder and elbow are clean.
BEST FITS: Marlins, Twins

Carlos Pena
1B
34
1
$5M
$5M
Analysis: One of the game’s nicest and classiest players, Pena hit below .200 for the second time in three years while still belting 19 home runs and driving in 61 runs, and still played an above-average first base. However, at 34 he’s finally lost an everyday job at first base and will now have to embrace a backup role if he wants to stay in the game.
BEST FITS: Indians, Rays

Sean Burnett
LHP
30
2
$8M
$4M
Analysis: Burnett is one of the few left-handed relievers in this market coming off a big year, pitching in 70 games and completing the season with an impressive 2.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Most contending teams have already called his representatives with interest.
BEST FITS: Angels, Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox

Koji Uehara
RHP
37
1
$4M
$4M
Analysis: Uehara had a nice bounce-back year for the Rangers after 2011’s struggles. In 2012, he pitched in 37 games, finishing with a 1.75 ERA and a 0.63 WHIP. The Rangers would love to have him back but, like Jason Grilli and Joel Peralta, it will probably take time to figure out if the older setup reliever market will get a nice bump in pay.
BEST FITS: Rangers, Red Sox, Angels

Ichiro Suzuki
OF
39
1
$4M
$4M
Analysis: Ichiro will be playing at age 39 in 2013, and although he did well in his short stay with the Yankees, posting a .322/.340/.454 slash line, there is no doubt that he’s nearing the end of his special career.
SIGNED: Giants, Dodgers