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4,357 comments Add your comment
Bay Area Steve
November 14th, 2012
2:30 pm
Obviously, TP. I thought.
Let’s talk about this: “I’d aim to turn in a mediocre season with strong “peripherals” making me a “change of scenery” candidate.”
I mean, that’s some mighty specific ball-playin’. I submit if you’re good enough to steer your stats somewhere, you really oughta just go out and mash, and then the Marlins could never afford you in the first place.
brian
November 14th, 2012
2:30 pm
BAS is right on at 1:58
David O'Brien
November 14th, 2012
2:32 pm
From Jerry Crasnick on Twitter: Tigers paid up for Hunter’s leadership, clubhouse presence and all those things that might get you laughed out of a SABR meeting.
beekay
November 14th, 2012
2:33 pm
Bay area Steve …do you want to see more quoutes from Hunter? You don’t see Kevin Love running his mouth moaning about white players in the NBA every week do you? If you take out the Euro’s it’s way under 3%
David O'Brien
November 14th, 2012
2:33 pm
Those who wondered what all the fuss was about when Chipper went on the DL with that major leg contusion, when we tried to describe how bad it was and how it wasn’t like he was going on the DL with a simple bruise as some believed, here’s all you need to see. Chipper tweeted this photo of his leg a week or so after B.J. Upton liner hit it:
https://twitter.com/RealCJ10/status/268544674669670400/photo/1
Ray
November 14th, 2012
2:34 pm
13m a year for Tori Hunter, glad the Braves did not do that. I know it would have been a long shot for any NL team to sign Hunter but wow, that is a lot of money for him.
Murph
November 14th, 2012
2:34 pm
Torii Hunter should be required to watch Soul Man, the C. Thomas Howell classic, at least twice a year.
“Mark? A black Negro? He never told me he was a black Negro. Thank you. Boy, just when you think you get to know somebody. I’m gonna go confront him with this information right now. Wow… Mark… a black Negro!”
beekay
November 14th, 2012
2:34 pm
Bay Area Currently 8% of MLB is African American …your #’s are only off about 250%
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
2:35 pm
So that a thoughtful guy, with something to say
BAS, I gotta challenge on “thoughtful”. I don’t think Latin players think of themselves as “imposter” African-Americans (and my machismo would be in full throat were I confronted with such a phrase), and a characterization of “…when you can get a Dominican guy for a bag of chips” is pretty demeaning. I can’t believe that Hunter gave much thought to those comments. His premise may be correct, for all I know, but I find it poorly expressed.
flange1
November 14th, 2012
2:35 pm
That leg looks WAY worse that I thought it would.
OUCH!!
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
2:37 pm
I don’t see racism. I see a guy who’s watched black involvement in the sport go from something like 10% down to less than 3% (numbers culled from an alcohol-riddled mind; margin of error 100%), and has a few things to say about it.
Exactly. Hunter is not a racist.
full disclosure, my 2:12 was a sarcastic joke
Of course. You don’t even need to say it.
Shaun
November 14th, 2012
2:37 pm
From Jerry Crasnick on Twitter: Tigers paid up for Hunter’s leadership, clubhouse presence and all those things that might get you laughed out of a SABR meeting.
All that is probably true. It’s also true they wouldn’t have paid up if Hunter was a Delmon Young or a Jeff Franceour type of baseball player.
joeslaststand
November 14th, 2012
2:38 pm
I am concern about the decision to resign McCann with his continual health issues over the last several years and I think we should have resigned Ross. He would have stayed in Atlanta for relatively cheap and has proven to be a worthy backup for McCann. I also think McCann represents exactly what the Braves organization wants as a player in the clubhouse and on the field and I understand the move with Bethancourt on the rise in the minors. The Braves back office knew all along how they were going to address the issue with McCann’s and Ross’ contracts. I hate to see Ross go but we move on. With the extra funds available with Chippers contract off the books and Lowe’s money reconciled, I am optimistic about our future. We have two starters with as bright of futures as any in MLB in Heyward & Freeman and a great young starting rotation (Hudson, Beachy, Medlen, Malhom & Minor) and several young guns in Delgado, Teheran & Vizciano in the minors we will not have to address this issue in the off season. I left out Hanson because I think he will be traded to help secure the right-handed bat that we need at center and at left. We have the ultimate utility player in Prado and a great young SS in Simmons. Uggla has got to crawl out of his funk and I am certain that he will. I expect us to make a push for Headley from San Diego so we can keep Prado in the outfield. Rumor has it that the Braves are interested in Cody Roos, which doesn’t thrill me but he is a likable player and a serviceable outfielder. None of this addresses the need for a lead off hitter after Bourne is gone. I am sure that he will not return because Atlanta is not going to pay $15 million for an aging leadoff hitter that regressed as a hitter and as a base stealer during the second half of last year.
Tumbledown
November 14th, 2012
2:39 pm
It seems like there is more evidence that Hunter is a positive clubhouse presence. Does anyone know whether he has had any problems with teammates in the past? Regardless whether I agree, I don’t want to be too critical of his comments as they appear to come from a sincere place in his heart.
Bay Area Steve
November 14th, 2012
2:41 pm
From a high of 27% to today’s 7.7%, right, beekay?
So while you played gotchya, even though I allowed my numbers were wrong, my overall point is still valid, no?
And, I’d love for Kevin Love, or any other athlete, to speak his mind and do so with some thought, and some intelligence, and some creativity. But, most don’t. I like the ones that do. I think that’s what I was whining about earlier.
brian
November 14th, 2012
2:41 pm
so the Jays contacted Cox to see if he is interested in managing the MarlinJays……
Braves Austerity Movement
November 14th, 2012
2:43 pm
I wonder if the Braves have considered how much they can save by signing Cody Ross since they already have the “Ross” jersey tags? If they could give him the same number David Ross had, they would save even more money!
beekay
November 14th, 2012
2:43 pm
Efrim, how do you know Hunter isn’t…is he a personal friend of yours? Google Hunter and the word racist and racism and see how many different times Hunter has brought this up in his career. Calling Latino’s Imposters is disgraceful. Pujols wanted to smash the guy
Shaun
November 14th, 2012
2:43 pm
I don’t think those things mentioned would get you “kicked out of a SABR meeting.” But this is the type strawman that advances this false dichotomy, holy war nonsense that is getting tiresome.
You can’t be an all-of-the-above person. You have to pick sides. It’s sad and lazy, really.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
2:43 pm
Scouts are very down on the HS RHP group as a whole. The lefthanders in this class are good, but all sort of have their hickeys. – Conner Glassey, Baseball America
Perfect time to take some bats. Although I’d take a college pitcher as long as they can touch 95mph.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
2:46 pm
Jason (Muskegon, MI): As the draft projects now…what positions project as deep? not deep?
Conor Glassey: For high school, it’s deep with catchers and lefthanders. Righthanders and shortstops are thin (and shortstops are especially thin in the college ranks).
Bay Area Steve
November 14th, 2012
2:46 pm
“I find it poorly expressed.”
Of course it’s poorly expressed. My issue is that there ain’t much expressing going on, and if we vilify the very few who still bother, what are we left with?
A poor athlete, white or black in this country, has to go through the draft, and typically has to wait some time to make any money. Latin players are for the most part, not subject to that system. Seems pretty obvious why there could be some estrangement there.
beekay
November 14th, 2012
2:47 pm
Bay Area…calling a race Imposters is not using thought and intelligence and creativity in my opinion….signing for a bag of chips is an insult to Latino’s intelligence as well.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
2:47 pm
But this is the type strawman that advances this false dichotomy, holy war nonsense that is getting tiresome.
Seriously, look into humor-chip implantation.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
2:49 pm
I think Craig Biggio’s son is eligile to be drafted in 2013. That’ll make you feel old. Cavan Biggio – potential 1st rounder.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
2:51 pm
Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post reports that the Marlins are shopping Logan Morrison.
Yup. I’d expect him outta there.
flange1
November 14th, 2012
2:51 pm
What is tiresome is the continual condescending posts coming from you.
Bay Area Steve
November 14th, 2012
2:52 pm
“holy war nonsense that is getting tiresome.”
Ridiculous. You started the war. You continue the war. You embrace the war. You are the war. This place has called the whole thing tired for what’s approaching a decade. 99.5% of the folks here would be glad to never discuss it again. And you have the nerve to call it tiresome? You’re the only thing that’s f’n tired.
Shaun
November 14th, 2012
2:52 pm
Seriously, look into humor-chip implantation.
ncscoots, do you know what would happen if someone make a joke in the opposite direction?
Sure, let me make a joke about getting kicked out the BBWAA for looking at WAR and wOBA and see how that goes over.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
2:53 pm
Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
Hunter’s two-year, $26 million deal nudges the market forward for the many free agent outfielders — Swisher, Pagan, Ross, etc
That sort of scared feeling in my stomach. Can’t wait for the tweet from Kenny Rosenthal:
“Sources: Braves sign Cody Ross to three year deal”
Double Yikes.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
2:54 pm
ncscoots, do you know what would happen if someone make a joke in the opposite direction?
Are you serious? These sort of jokes are made all of the time between the two. It’s sad, on both sides.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
2:54 pm
Seems pretty obvious why there could be some estrangement there.
I don’t doubt it a bit. More importantly, I am one of those folks who too often has thoughts that are better left unexpressed than expressed in their original form. And having, at times, trouble with firing before loading, I know the grief that can come from that uncomposed expression.
Bay Area Steve
November 14th, 2012
2:54 pm
“calling a race Imposters”
The irony is that, I believe, he used the term (and I understand why its target would take offense) because white people don’t know the difference.
Mountain Braves Fan
November 14th, 2012
2:55 pm
Simmons, Minor, Teheran, Venters, and Bethancourt for Andrew McCutchen. To further sweeten the deal for the Pirates, I would also take back shortstop Clint Barmes and his $5.5 million contract.
Both teams would benefit from the trade. The Braves would get the centerfielder and right handed bat they need, and McCutchen would be under team control on an affordable contract for five years plus a club option.
The Pirates would get better, younger, and cheaper at multiple positions. Venters would allow them to trade their closer Hanrahan for additional offense. Trading McCutchen, Barmes, and Hanrahan would free up about $14 million to invest in further club upgrades.
I would not trade Simmons in a deal for Justin Upton, but I would absolutely trade him if it got the Braves Andrew McCutchen.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 14th, 2012
2:55 pm
But LoMo’s pre-arb…. he fits into their model. Come on Stanton, get madder…
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 14th, 2012
2:56 pm
NO!!!!
brian
November 14th, 2012
2:59 pm
Logan Morrison would be a good bench versus platoon player. Back up 1B and platoon in LF. That is it. I would not trade jack to get him. Actually I would trade Jack Wilson but you know what I mean
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:00 pm
do you know what would happen if someone make a joke in the opposite direction?
I hope that I would laugh, if the joke had any comedic value.
I think you made a joke here once that I found amusing. You know, an intentional one.
One every five or six years probably isn’t enough to get you to Vegas, but I like that you try.
Brian from SC
November 14th, 2012
3:00 pm
Isn’t Giancarlo Stanton pretty much the perfect player the Braves need? Not that he’s available, but hypothetically, I wonder what the Braves would give up to get him.
Bay Area Steve
November 14th, 2012
3:03 pm
Brian,
This was DOB’s offer:
“For #Marlins Stanton, #Braves should offer Teheran, payment of balance on unsightly CF sculpture, concrete to fill in backstop aquarium”
brian
November 14th, 2012
3:03 pm
Stanton is the exact player the Braves have been looking for for years. I think they would have to give up Minor, Teheran/Delgado/Gilmartin (one of the 3), Gattis, and Ahmed to get Stanton
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:04 pm
Brian, look up the page re Stanton. It’s already been laid out for the trade.
brian
November 14th, 2012
3:04 pm
thanks BAS – DOB for general manager!
Brian from SC
November 14th, 2012
3:04 pm
Haha…pretty good, BAS.
I wonder, seriously, what it would be, though. Teheran, Simmons, Delgado…is that even enough?
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:06 pm
What can I get for this group: Gilmartin, Ahmed, and Terdoslavich
Whatever player I can get for Braves players drafted in 2009-2011 except for Mike Minor, Andrelton Simmons and JR Graham…..
….you know, the good ones.
Brian from SC
November 14th, 2012
3:07 pm
Ah, I see Page 15 has all the Stanton discussion. Sorry…I have not been around. I just had that thought pop in my head and popped in here to broadcast it.
13Braves
November 14th, 2012
3:07 pm
I know its not really a major concern for the Braves yet, but would they look at a guy like A.J Peirzinski as a short term solution until Mac is Healthy? Then use him as a trading chip at trading deadline. Since center field/leadoff seems to be a priority is there any way the Braves make a play for De Aza from the white sox? Just seems Wren has a knack for pulling the trade no one sees.
Ray
November 14th, 2012
3:07 pm
Buster Olney just reported a lot of the people in baseball feel that the Marlins did pretty well in the overall trade in regards to talent. That it is a lot better than it looks in just names.
sportsmandh
November 14th, 2012
3:07 pm
haven’t read all the comments, so apologies ahead of time if I repeat something
It may not be popular to say, but I would’ve gone ahead and let McCann go and not picked up his option
then there would have been plenty of money free to give Ross whatever he wanted on a two year contract
I think Ross is very valuable for a couple more years, and wouldn’t plan on keeping McCann for the long term
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:08 pm
is that even enough?
The simplest metric for any of these Stanton trade packages is “Would I consider trading Heyward for this?” If you can’t get to that point, I don’t think you could get Stanton for the package, either.
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:08 pm
Simmons, Minor, Teheran, Venters, and Bethancourt for Andrew McCutchen. To further sweeten the deal for the Pirates, I would also take back shortstop Clint Barmes and his $5.5 million contract.
Both teams would benefit from the trade.
I don’t see a rotation of Hudson, Hanson, Medlen, Delgado, and Maholm as a good thing. Maybe it’s just me. Something about the thought of seeing Gilmartin called up to fill in for an injured pitcher scares the beejesus out of me.
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:09 pm
What can I get for this group: Gilmartin, Ahmed, and Terdoslavich
Brooks Conrad
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 14th, 2012
3:10 pm
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
2:53 pm
Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
Hunter’s two-year, $26 million deal nudges the market forward for the many free agent outfielders — Swisher, Pagan, Ross, etc
That sort of scared feeling in my stomach. Can’t wait for the tweet from Kenny Rosenthal:
“Sources: Braves sign Cody Ross to three year deal”
Double Yikes.
Thanks Ef since you posted that in black and white it will not happen so we will not be tortured to endure the likes of Cody Ross in a Braves uni at way too much $.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:12 pm
David Lennon @DPLennon
#Marlins owner Loria not in chatty mood here “Not today boys. If you guys haven’t figured it out yet I’m not going to figure it out for you”
I hope we bury them every game next year.
Hillbilly
November 14th, 2012
3:13 pm
Perfect time to take some bats. Although I’d take a college pitcher as long as they can touch 95mph.
Ryan Stanek? [Go Hogs
]
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:14 pm
If you can’t get to that point, I don’t think you could get Stanton for the package, either.
Excellent way of framing it, scoots. Therefore for me: Jon Jay, Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal.
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:14 pm
The simplest metric for any of these Stanton trade packages is “Would I consider trading Heyward for this?”
In other words, start with Freeman and Teheran and go from there.
Freeman, Teheran, and Ahmed for Stanton… throw $15mil at Bourn and/or Pagan…
1. Bourn/Pagan (CF)
2. Prado
3. Heyward
4. Stanton
5. McCann
6. Uggla
7. Mejia
8. Simmons
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:15 pm
I hope we bury them every game next year.
You won’t have time to hate on the Marlins, once the Braves sign Cody Ross.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:17 pm
Ryan Stanek?
I wish….
It’s early but the Top 5 seem to be Appel, Stanek, Manea, Meadows and Frazier in no particular order. I’m forgetting what the outfielder from Stanford’s name is….but he is up there too.
It’s amazing – it seems like no matter what the year, the talent from picks 1-12 or 15 is so strong and then it falls off of a cliff and picks in the back of the first round are just as good as the guy picked 50-60. So weird. Seems like that every friggin year.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:18 pm
Therefore for me: Jon Jay, Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal.
That’s a lot. Beaucoup. I couldn’t do that one.
Mike S.
November 14th, 2012
3:20 pm
I like Murph’s idea. The fact is, the Braves need a proven legit bat in the middle of this order. McCann was never going to be it. Cody Ross will be a Dan Uggla situation…a player used to hitting in a lineup with better power around him. Then they bring him here and expect him to be the power, and he cant deal with the roll. Its cheap, and its not going to work. Go get Stanton. You know the Marlins have to be listening.
wheelz007
November 14th, 2012
3:20 pm
Cody Ross is a good player. He’ll hit .260 with 18-20 homers and drive in 80 runs or so, and he’ll play 140 games.
He’ll be good in the clubhouse too.
No, he’s not a superstar and he’s not going to win a batting title or MVP award, but he will do well as a RH bat between all the lefties we’ve got.
Again, he’s not a super-star, but he is definately a solid player.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:20 pm
And that’s why I’m not expecting a miracle in next years draft…..but I am expected more than a left hander that works 89-91mph.
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:20 pm
Mejia’s AA stats from 2011:
.297/.375/.531/.906….26 HR…. 37 2B
Mejia’s AAA stats from 2012:
.296/.347/.502/.849…. 24 HR…. 32 2B
I love Freddie, but if he can be used to get a player the quality of Stanton, it’s not like we’d have Hinske playing 1B for us. Trade Freeman and give Mejia a shot.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:22 pm
Trade Freeman and give Mejia a shot.
Bleep Mejia. Give LaRoche 3/$30MM.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 14th, 2012
3:23 pm
(Anibal) Sanchez remains a priority for the Tigers per Danny Knobler. I think it’s a good fit. If the Tigers get him, they’ll be looking pretty good. It’d make Rick Porcello a possible trade candidate in my view. He’d draw interest.
Averaged 92.3mph on his fastball… 23 years old.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:23 pm
That’s a lot. Beaucoup. I couldn’t do that one.
It is. Taveras is so close and will probably wreak havoc on NL pitchers by end of next year. And the comps to a LH Vlad Guerrero continue to pop up. Probably wouldn’t pull the trigger if I was the Cards. But I’d be looking for that sort of deal for Heyward. The freaking Sun, Moon, Jupiter, etc.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:24 pm
Averaged 92.3mph on his fastball… 23 years old.
I like Porcello because he gets groundballs and we have Andrelton Simmons on the team. Just make sure they are hit to the left side of the infield.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 14th, 2012
3:24 pm
thoughts on the declined Simmons-Olt deal?
Ben Nicholson-Smith: Really interesting stuff. I would have expected the Braves to take Olt and make him their third baseman, keeping Prado in left. I guess they don’t hold Olt in particularly high esteem — either that or they really believe in Simmons.
Umm, I’ll pick the latter.
Mike S.
November 14th, 2012
3:25 pm
Freeman is a good player, but he’s not providing enough power out of first base to make him untouchable. I dont think its a bad move to use him as trade bate to get a better player like Stanton. The Braves need a legit big bat in the middle of this order. It could make all the difference. You might even see Uggla get back to his Marlin form since he wont think he has to be the power any more.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:25 pm
The freaking Sun, Moon, Jupiter, etc.
Yeah, but it sounds as if you want the entire galaxy, not just the solar system.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:25 pm
http://espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/story/_/id/8630826/texas-rangers-play-san-antonio-alamodome
I think they get a team at some point. I have no reason to think it will happen, but I just think the market is there for a team. Them and Northern New Jersey.
Hell, I wrote a an essay in college on what the Expos should move to Portland. Never happened.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 14th, 2012
3:26 pm
I mean, maybe if it were last year and we hadn’t seen Simmons yet and Pastornicky was really considered all of that (which it seems he was), maybe I do it. But now now…
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:28 pm
I guess they don’t hold Olt in particularly high esteem — either that or they really believe in Simmons.
SS is so friggin bad. I don’t think peopel realize how bad it is. So is 3B, though. But Simmons is still a more valued asset.
Yeah, but it sounds as if you want the entire galaxy, not just the solar system
Just wait in two years when we are sitting here talking about trading Kimbrel, scoots. Trade him to some AL large market team that values closers highly and take them for everything they have….
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 14th, 2012
3:28 pm
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:14 pm
The simplest metric for any of these Stanton trade packages is “Would I consider trading Heyward for this?”
In other words, start with Freeman and Teheran and go from there.
Freeman, Teheran, and Ahmed for Stanton… throw $15mil at Bourn and/or Pagan…
1. Bourn/Pagan (CF)
2. Prado
3. Heyward
4. Stanton
5. McCann
6. Uggla
7. Mejia
8. Simmons
Oh great now this will be the topic of discussion for the next week. I don’t like it by the way. I like Stanton as a player but he has been hurt way too much as a young player. I’m keeping Freeman.
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:30 pm
1. Span
2. Prado
3. Heyward
4. Stanton
5. Laroche
6. Uggla
7. McCann
8. Simmons
Now that’s a freakin’ lineup! Nobody left in the minors, but who gives a crap?
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:30 pm
That’s how the Braves system will be rebuilt. 2012-2014 drafts and the trade of Craig Kimbrel……
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:30 pm
Freeman is a good player, but he’s not providing enough power out of first base to make him untouchable.
Man, I really dislike this kinda stuff. One does not have to find reasons that a player is somehow unworthy, to consider him in a trade. The fact is, Freeman would be in such a package because he already is a very good player, one who is likely to grow into his power and hit 30+, and hit for a solid average, to boot.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:32 pm
Now that’s a freakin’ lineup! Nobody left in the minors, but who gives a crap?
Do they play the WS in Gwinnett? I didn’t think so.
Shaun
November 14th, 2012
3:33 pm
Bay Area Steve, I don’t have issues with “the other side” (whatever that other side is). I don’t care to label the different sides of whatever imaginary baseball holy war exists. All I want is for people to accept useful and meaningful data. But some have to make it a “sabermetric” versus “anti-sabermetric” thing, so they won’t accept data that doesn’t fit the label from their side.
For example, something like wRC+ is useful and meaningful and anyone can see that it is with just a little bit of trying to understand its inner workings. But since it’s “the other” and “sabermetric,” it’s automatically discounted without regard to what goes in to it. If folks were concerned about getting a little smarter and intellectual curiosity instead of trying to label every bit of information as “sabermetric” or “anti-sabermetric,” we’d be a lot better off.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:35 pm
.290/.360/.490 from Freeman in 2013. Book it.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:36 pm
Do they play the WS in Gwinnett? I didn’t think so.
I’d be pretty heated if Teheran and/or Graham were traded. But if they went for a younger player, I’d be okay with that. I’d rather not either be included for Willingham. Gotta be able to get him for Delgado +.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:36 pm
That’s only .850, Efrim. Unacceptable, LOL.
flange1
November 14th, 2012
3:37 pm
Why do you keep posting crap like at 3:33?
When has ANYONE on here (other than you) brought up wRC+ in the last 6 months?
The only war that is going on is you VS some unknown group of BBWA dinosaurs.
We just don’t know who the dinosaurs are or where they might be but according to you they exist somewhere…..
Henry
November 14th, 2012
3:37 pm
OK Frank, the time is now to complete the fleece of the Marlins. Put a package together of Degaldo, Gattis or whomever and bring Stanton’s big bat to Atlanta.
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:39 pm
I don’t actually think the Marlins will trade Stanton… but it’s fun to think about him and Heyward in the same OF. Plus, I’d have little blue and red tears running down my cheeks seeing Freeman leave. He’s one of my favorite players on the team.
If the opportunity were to present itself, though, I’d hope Wren would take a good long look at it. In that situation, talking about a player of Stanton’s level, I’d think pretty much anyone except Heyward would be up for grabs.
Bay Area Steve
November 14th, 2012
3:40 pm
So, Shaun, the war is tired.
But you, the Holy Warrior, shall not stop because “they won’t accept?”
Fine. I’ve accepted that’s who you are. What I think is ridiculous is you calling it tiresome. You know what I do when I’m tired? I rest. Give ‘er a shot.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 14th, 2012
3:40 pm
Damn man fans these days have no loyalty whatsoever. Now we are talking about trading what could be possibly one of, if not the best closer ever if he stays healthy? Dude has been filthy since he arrived and as was evident by the numbers Murph posted yesterday on Kimbrel has been amazing to watch pitch and close out games. Instead of appreciating and sitting back enjoying what the guys does and talking about locking him up long term fans are already talking about trading him. If there was one guy worth the crazy $ athletes get for value, so far it’s been this guy.
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:41 pm
.290/.360/.490 from Freeman in 2013. Book it.
I dunno, he only hit .179 in Miami this year….
Lew
November 14th, 2012
3:43 pm
WTF is wRC+ and why should we care?
Murph
November 14th, 2012
3:43 pm
Damn man fans these days have no loyalty whatsoever. Now we are talking about trading what could be possibly one of, if not the best closer ever if he stays healthy?
Yesterday has us in a trading frenzy. It’s like sharks on a dead floating whale, only substitute sharks for stat nerds and the dead floating whale for the Miami roster… or what’s left of it.
Bay Area Steve
November 14th, 2012
3:43 pm
Pack,
I don’t think there is a single body here who wouldn’t want Kimbrel here until his arm falls off. But, this is the Braves. Do you really think they’re going to give a closer Mariano money? $15 million by five? ‘Cause that’s where it’s gonna start.
brian
November 14th, 2012
3:46 pm
It is easier to replace Freeman’s production at 1B than it would be to replace Simmons at SS or Stanton in LF so I would sign off on it except that Freeman is Heyward’s best friend. Whereas you have to trade talent to get talent, I would hesitate on Freeman mainly due to its impact on Heyward and his long term chances as a Brave.
THis is fun though – Freeman leading the package for Stanton. Sign LaRoche or trade for the Angels budding young 1B stud who is blocked by Albert. Interesting……
raleighbravefan
November 14th, 2012
3:48 pm
I sure hope Miggy wins the MVP. It will be so much fun to watch the Shaun freakout. Of course, that will be the subject of the hour, every day, until some other “injustice” occurs…but I can always scroll.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:52 pm
That’s how the Braves system will be rebuilt. 2012-2014 drafts and the trade of Craig Kimbrel
Mebbe he’s wearing three rings by then and goes hometown on us.
Hey, they paid Smoltz, didn’t they?
nolie
November 14th, 2012
3:52 pm
NL West: Road to 90 wins ESPN Insider
Projecting every NL West player and team for 2013
Updated: November 8, 2012, 10:41 AM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
Winter Forecast: AL/NL West
It remains nearly four months until the 2013 season, but baseball never really truly ends. Baseball’s Hot Stove League unofficially started last Saturday morning, and while the metaphorical hot stove baseball fans huddle around has been replaced by a hot Internet router, there’s plenty of baseball talk to get us through the winter.
To get us rolling, with the aid of the ZiPS Projection System, we’re looking at the state of each team as we enter the busiest part of the offseason, from now until the end of the year. If you haven’t noticed it in the past decade, ZiPS is a computerized projection system, designed for the purpose of condensing baseball data into an objective first opinion of what the future will bring. Computers obviously can’t tell us everything about a player, but baseball has a rich supply of useful objective information — perhaps the richest of any sport — and it can be difficult to separate what’s important from what isn’t. Predicting the future will always be an error-filled endeavor, but it’s always useful to cut through the fog a little.
So, why is this the Road To 90? Around 90 wins is when winning a game has the highest leverage in MLB. Going from 50 to 55 wins just means you finish in last place by a smaller amount. Going from 100 to 105 wins just fattens your lead. But going from 85 to 90 wins can very well be the difference between October baseball and October golf. Under baseball’s current playoff structure, 73 of the 74 90-win teams over the past decade would have gotten to play past game 162, while most teams that win 85 or fewer games watch from home.
The win projection numbers below represent the mean win projection for each team if they stood with their current roster, essentially representing a baseline 2013 projection as we enter the winter. We’ll look at where teams stand now and what they need to do to get to 90 wins.
San Francisco Giants
2012: 94-68
2013 projection: 84-78
As you might possibly recall, the Giants just won their second World Series in three seasons, so the franchise is full of happy feelings now. Everybody starts at 0-0 at the end of March and the Giants do have some work ahead of them if they want to make it three championships in four years.
The biggest task for San Francisco is what could amount to a total rebuild of the outfield. While the organization should like to see a better starting second baseman in 2013 than Joaquin Arias, the free agent market at the position is very weak, with only two appearing on Keith Law’s Top 50 Free Agent list.
If the season started today, the Giants would most likely go with some combination of Hunter Pence, Brett Pill, and Gregor Blanco. The hopeful scenario was that prospects Gary Brown or Francisco Peguero would have developed into a replacement by this point, but both players had disappointing 2012 seasons.
The Giants probably made a mistake in not giving Angel Pagan a qualifying offer. The risks associated with him accepting were very low because signing a player to a single year at $13 million is a very different scenario than giving a player four or five years at that figure. Pagan was a marvelous pickup for the Giants and his projected .271/.320/.404, 3.2 WAR line would have done a lot to eliminate some of San Francisco’s uncertainty in the outfield.
On the good side, ZiPS is optimistic about Tim Lincecum putting his 2012 behind him. The error bars on this projection are huge, with the computer being just as unsure as to what’s wrong with Lincecum as the rest of us and seeing anything from a Cy Young to a 2012 repeat as possibilities. Personally, I like to err on the side of optimism with players with as much talent as Lincecum, so I’m pulling for the Freak flag to fly in San Francisco again.
The pitching is overall solid and dependable. ZiPS projects 31 pitchers in baseball right now to finish their career with 170 wins or more, and the Giants have four of them.
2013 Giants
How each key current player projects for next season.
PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Buster Posey .299 .372 .482 Matt Cain 2.99 210.2 55 179
1B Brandon Belt .264 .358 .429 Madison Bumgarner 3.23 208.0 49 195
2B Joaquin Arias .256 .283 .348 Ryan Vogelsong 3.68 163.2 57 130
3B Pablo Sandoval .285 .338 .467 Tim Lincecum 3.67 188.2 78 194
SS Brandon Crawford .230 .292 .340 Barry Zito 4.31 135.2 53 91
LF Brett Pill .258 .295 .400 BULLPEN
CF Gregor Blanco .228 .320 .326 Brian Wilson 3.38 47.0 23 49
RF Hunter Pence .262 .317 .410 Santiago Casilla 3.36 56.1 24 51
BENCH Sergio Romo 2.25 51.0 11 64
OF Gary Brown .255 .314 .356 Javier Lopez 3.48 41.1 17 31
OF Francisco Peguero .262 .283 .357
3B Conor Gillaspie .256 .313 .367
C Hector Sanchez .257 .285 .373
IF Emmanuel Burriss .247 .300 .292
Los Angeles Dodgers
2012: 86-76
2013 projection: 84-78
The Dodgers have reached an unusually awkward position: They have one of the biggest payrolls in baseball, only a few spots open to make upgrades, but are not clearly one of the best teams in baseball. L.A. took some gigantic risks this summer, and already has $80 million committed — in 2017.
Still, the Dodgers will compete with the rest of the division well in 2013, with most of the risk absorbed manageable in 2013 as opposed to several years from now. There’s a lot more talent entering next season than this season, and any upgrades are likely to come at catcher or third. At this point, bringing in Mike Napoli (projected .243/.338/.454, 3.6 WAR in L.A.) or Kevin Youkilis (.252/.358/.454, 3.0 WAR) would barely be drops in the bucket, cash-wise, and may be enough to put away the rest of the league.
I listed both Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly in the table as we just don’t know which of them, if either, will be healthy at the start of the season.
The Dodgers are a strong competitor, if not exactly a model for efficient spending.
2013 Dodgers
How each key current player projects for next season.
PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C A.J. Ellis .248 .355 .345 Clayton Kershaw 2.56 221.2 63 233
1B Adrian Gonzalez .286 .355 .476 Chris Capuano 4.11 164.1 47 136
2B Mark Ellis .251 .308 .347 Josh Beckett 3.70 150.2 46 135
3B Luis Cruz .261 .285 .384 Aaron Harang 4.25 139.2 55 97
SS Hanley Ramirez .265 .334 .447 Chad Billingsley 3.64 167.0 59 143
LF Carl Crawford .269 .311 .435 BULLPEN
CF Matt Kemp .291 .362 .531 Ted Lilly 4.05 110.0 32 89
RF Andre Ethier .267 .343 .427 Brandon League 3.46 67.2 23 53
BENCH Ronald Belisario 3.60 64.0 26 56
UT Jerry Hairston .259 .330 .367 Kenley Jansen 2.10 64.1 28 101
SS Dee Gordon .257 .299 .317 Javy Guerra 3.88 50.0 25 41
IF Nick Punto .232 .320 .309
IF Juan Uribe .235 .291 .382
IF Justin Sellers .227 .304 .354
OF Scott van Slyke .248 .309 .411
C Tim Federowicz .232 .294 .342
Arizona Diamondbacks
2012: 81-81
2013 projection: 85-77
Arizona is one of the few teams in baseball projected to win more games in 2013 than 2012 simply by doing nothing. Chris Young and Joe Saunders are the only significant positive contributors from this season to leave the team and the Diamondbacks (and ZiPS) feel that Adam Eaton is a quality replacement for Young. There will still be playing time for Gerardo Parra and while Cliff Pennington, picked up from Oakland, won’t hit any better than Willie Bloomquist did in 2012, he’ll at least be an above-average defender at the position.
ZiPS is also more optimistic about Arizona’s 2012 surprise pitcher, Wade Miley, than it was about Josh Collmenter after 2011, though Arizona could likely still use a Joe Saunders replacement, someone to eat a few innings and pitch somewhere around league-average. A return of Edwin Jackson to Arizona (projected 4.06 ERA) would go a long way to hedging bets on Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. ZiPS is conservative with both, Bauer because he still has some control issues to work out, and Skaggs becuase of very little experience above Double-A ball.
2013 D-backs
How each key current player projects for next season.
PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Miguel Montero .267 .354 .428 Ian Kennedy 3.71 201.1 56 178
1B Paul Goldschmidt .259 .339 .468 Trevor Cahill 3.86 200.1 69 152
2B Aaron Hill .271 .326 .444 Wade Miley 3.94 180.2 47 132
3B Chris Johnson .261 .301 .424 Tyler Skaggs 4.76 141.2 57 120
SS Cliff Pennington .258 .315 .380 Trevor Bauer 4.97 130.1 85 134
LF Jason Kubel .260 .328 .485 BULLPEN
CF Adam Eaton .275 .358 .389 J.J. Putz 2.90 49.2 12 58
RF Justin Upton .275 .355 .470 Heath Bell 3.84 58.2 22 54
BENCH Brad Ziegler 3.57 57.0 20 42
C Wil Nieves .233 .269 .312 David Hernandez 3.02 65.2 26 84
IF John McDonald .249 .290 .363
IF Willie Bloomquist .265 .299 .353
OF Gerardo Parra .273 .331 .400
OF A.J. Pollock .264 .305 .361
San Diego Padres
2012: 76-86
2013 projection: 76-86
After the midway point of the 2012 season, which NL West team had the best second half of the season? Not the Dodgers or the Diamondbacks (and certainly not the Rockies), but as you may have guessed already, it was the San Diego Padres, at 45-36 in the second half, only four games behind the Giants at 49-32. The reason very few noticed is that they had already dug themselves a giant hole at 31-50.
For half a season, the Padres played the equivalent of 90-72 ball and the team’s only free agent is Jason Marquis. The team’s not really a 90-win team right now, but it has enough pieces in place, with the emergence of Yasmani Grandal as a full-time starter and nobody telling Carlos Quentin that Petco Park is a terrible place to hit, that they can make some noise in the division with a few moves.
The team’s lineup is mostly set, so the best opportunity for improvement is the rotation. With a league-average rotation, the Padres probably finish the 2012 season at around .500, but Eric Stults and Cory Luebke were the only starters to have an ERA better than a league-average number in Petco in 2012. Stults is unlikely to repeat his 2012 and Luebke won’t be back from Tommy John surgery until midseason at the earliest, but a few low-key signings by the Padres could net them some serious bang for the buck.
Petco would likely be a cozy home for Jeremy Guthrie, a gopher-ball prone player that projects to a 3.80 ERA who isn’t going to demand large amounts of cash. Another fly-ball pitcher, Scott Baker, would be a tremendous candidate for a low-salary, incentive-laden contract.
2013 Padres
How each key current player projects for next season.
PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Yasmani Grandal .255 .353 .396 Clayton Richard 4.18 163.2 45 94
1B Yonder Alonso .263 .336 .402 Edinson Volquez 4.08 154.1 85 145
2B Logan Forsythe .234 .325 .347 Eric Stults 4.42 115.0 45 69
3B Chase Headley .268 .350 .428 Casey Kelly 4.20 100.2 29 73
SS Everth Cabrera .240 .318 .302 Andrew Cashner 3.81 99.1 39 93
LF Carlos Quentin .259 .352 .479 BULLPEN
CF Cameron Maybin .246 .312 .375 Huston Street 2.85 47.1 13 53
RF Will Venable .246 .315 .407 Luke Gregerson 3.14 65.0 20 64
BENCH Brad Boxberger 3.48 64.2 38 79
C Nick Hundley .227 .288 .365 Brad Brach 3.61 72.1 26 76
1B Jesus Guzman .260 .322 .401
OF Mark Kotsay .259 .315 .349
OF Chris Denorfia .265 .318 .392
IF Alexi Amarista .253 .286 .358
IF Jedd Gyorko .253 .311 .398
Colorado Rockies
2012: 64-98
2013 projection: 75-87
The 2012 season was nearly an unmitigated disaster for the Rockies, with the emergence of Dexter Fowler and the power shown by Wilin Rosario very nearly the only positive news for the franchise.
The good news is that it can’t get any worse and it won’t. The Rockies had a rotation that was lousy on a historical level this season, but they also were extremely unlucky on the injury side, with Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio and Jorge de la Rosa all missing most of the season due to injury. With a little luck for a change, a rotation of Chacin, de la Rosa, Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz, and Alex White — while not exactly rivaling the Giants — will at least comfortably beat the embarrassing 5.81 ERA the team got from the starting pitching.
Even in the post-humidor days, Coors Field is still an incredible hitter’s park, so the offense will remain a tad overrated, but there are no serious problems anywhere in the lineup.
Colorado’s the most likely basement dweller in the NL West, but 2013 will be better. The pitching will determine what upside this organization has next year.
2013 Rockies
How each key current player projects for next season.
PO Player BA OBP SLG Player ERA IP BB SO
C Wilin Rosario .257 .296 .465 Jhoulys Chacin 4.42 136.1 61 110
1B Todd Helton .264 .355 .426 Jorge de la Rosa 4.97 70.2 34 56
2B Josh Rutledge .280 .316 .445 Drew Pomeranz 4.96 134.1 65 112
3B Chris Nelson .269 .311 .427 Alex White 5.27 127.0 58 87
SS Troy Tulowitzki .294 .362 .535 Juan Nicasio 4.48 90.1 27 80
LF Carlos Gonzalez .297 .360 .531 BULLPEN
CF Dexter Fowler .273 .366 .452 Rafael Betancourt 3.44 49.2 10 53
RF Michael Cuddyer .284 .340 .499 Rex Brothers 3.93 68.2 40 85
BENCH Adam Ottavino 4.48 96.1 42 95
C Ramon Hernandez .259 .305 .407 Matt Belisle 3.93 73.1 16 63
OF Tyler Colvin .258 .298 .491
OF Eric Young .265 .339 .373
IF DJ LeMahieu .295 .328 .379
UT Jordan Pacheco .280 .324 .383
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:54 pm
Honestly, I don’t want to get into to it too much right now, but Atlanta is not paying a closer $10 million and likely more a year to pitch 60-70 innings a year with the current payroll. It’s not happening. Closers making what Mariano are making or what Papelbon signed for are for teams like Philly, New York, LA, etc. Those teams have the payroll for it to make sense. If healthy and productive, Craig Kimbrel is set to make at least $7 million in 2014, $10 million in 2015 and $13 million in 2016. Will the Braves hold on to him throughout those years? Maybe. But Iean towards no and that they will shop him if he is healthy and productive in two years from now – on the doorstep of near $25 million over two years remaining of control. And honestly, the Braves are going to get a really good return on him. Probably 1 or 2 elite prospects. And at that point, we may have another great reliever who can pitch 60 innings for us that probably isn’t as good, but will cost a fraction of the money Kimbrel makes. Plus, we are getting a good deal for Kimmey. I think it’s a scenario that could definitely happen in a couple of years.
Efrim
November 14th, 2012
3:57 pm
Hey, they paid Smoltz, didn’t they?
I just don’t see it, but maybe I’m wrong and they will give him a four year, $60 million dollar extension. If the payroll is around $90-$95 a year, I’d want to kick my dog if that sort of extension happened for a reliever – but that’s just me.
ncscoots
November 14th, 2012
3:57 pm
THis is fun though – Freeman leading the package for Stanton.
Or the Marlins might want to go pitching. A young ML starter (Medlen, Minor, Beachy) plus the top hitting prospect (Gattis, I guess), something like that. Add as needed, stir, and pour.
If the Marlins thought half as much of the young Braves’ pitching as the blog, they might cough up Stanton plus.
Ward
November 14th, 2012
4:00 pm
Hello everyone! The rumor is true, and Braves are interested in Coddy Ross.he would be great, and this goves more hope than last night. I think Victorino will be in Center. Just a by what I’ve been reading. I think this would be enough.