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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
5,183 comments Add your comment
phil
November 9th, 2012
3:02 pm
nolie
November 9th, 2012
2:36 pm
phil calling someone else a whiner is priceless…….
************
I never denied it, jackass….
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:02 pm
and of course the larger the sample size the more so.
not sure Shaun is the guy you should be asking about that aspect of stats.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:03 pm
phil calling somebody else a jackass is priceless too
Venice Jim
November 9th, 2012
3:04 pm
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
Davey Johnson and #nationals have agreed on the terms of his new managerial deal. Just finalizing legal issues/peperwork
Shaun
November 9th, 2012
3:07 pm
and of course the larger the sample size the more so.
not sure Shaun is the guy you should be asking about that aspect of stats.
Yes, because I’m one of the folks constantly posting about situational stats and playoff stats and stats against a certain pitcher as if they are statistically significant.
phil
November 9th, 2012
3:07 pm
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:03 pm
phil calling somebody else a jackass is priceless too
***********
I never denied it, doofus…..
flange1
November 9th, 2012
3:08 pm
Thanks nolie!
Murph
November 9th, 2012
3:09 pm
What didn’t you deny, phil?
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 9th, 2012
3:11 pm
I never denied it, doofus…..
Another priceless moment….
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:12 pm
I will certainly admit to being a doofus
phil
November 9th, 2012
3:12 pm
That I was a jackass or a whiner or a doofus….
phil
November 9th, 2012
3:13 pm
As if TheOnlyBravesFan has any room at all to open his piehole…..
Murph
November 9th, 2012
3:14 pm
phil, you never answered the question… do you drive a Prius?
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 9th, 2012
3:15 pm
TTFN
phil
November 9th, 2012
3:17 pm
Murph
November 9th, 2012
3:14 pm
phil, you never answered the question… do you drive a Prius?
*************
Didn’t see it.
No.
DAP
November 9th, 2012
3:19 pm
id give prado a 4-5 year deal and heyward a freakin 10 year deal if hed take it. with the braves stagnant payroll and no relief obvious on the horizon, they need to lock these guys up super longterm. sign freeman for 10 years to.
ncscoots
November 9th, 2012
3:19 pm
Yes, because I’m one of the folks constantly posting about situational stats and playoff stats and stats against a certain pitcher as if they are statistically significant
In other words, that other folks are wrong makes you knowledgeable of statistical methodology.
We call this an informal fallacy, by the way. Ironically enough, a regression fallacy.
Murph
November 9th, 2012
3:20 pm
nolie, be nice to lowercase phil. He doesn’t drive a Prius.
That makes him ok in my book.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
3:24 pm
Would anybody on here admit if they really did drive a Prius?
If I had one, I drive in a disguise so as not to be recognized.
ncscoots
November 9th, 2012
3:26 pm
Would anybody on here admit if they really did drive a Prius?
“First, we kill all the Prius owners.”
DS1
November 9th, 2012
3:26 pm
DAP
How much would you offer a guy like Heyward or Freeman for 10 years? 80 mil? Would they take it?
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:27 pm
phil is the new Murph in my book with all the attendant dangers from me. rejoice man
Shaun
November 9th, 2012
3:29 pm
ncscoots, knowledgeable is largely relative. Am I knowledgeable of statistical methodology? Compared to whom? I’m no expert on statistics but I have a basic understanding of how a lot of baseball statistics work and understand a 3 percent difference in OPS+ over a four-year stretch is not all that meaningful.
I definitely consider myself a baseball person before a stats person.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:29 pm
80 mil? no way Jose, try 150, Tulo’s was higher than that IIRC
phil
November 9th, 2012
3:30 pm
I give…
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:30 pm
definitely consider myself a baseball person before a stats person…Shaun
yeah thats what I meant. not really insulting you
P-Town Brave ©
November 9th, 2012
3:31 pm
DS1-
Good points while I was away at lunch and yeah, like I said, not the best option IMO but not the worst….I just don’t see how he fits in given all our current lower BA, high K rate players….
I just feel like we need to look at the Cardinals and Giants model and try to follow….they both seem to have done well by putting the ball in play more and using models w/ solid baserunning and timely hitting….now its always hard to predict timely hitting and who will hit well w/ RISP, however, I think the whole putting it in to play helps there….at least in the Giants aspect…just look at Scutaro….
I just am not too keen on adding another high strikeout guy….I mean if we were gonna do that, why not bring in Mark Reynolds who is a better defender in the field, hits a ton of HR, and then we don’t have to move Prado….
Just pulled that name outta my *ss so don’t kill me over it…
And btw…loved the Italian suit reference….nice one there.
Oh, and trust me, from friends who have them, people who have a Prius will gladly tell you so…..smugness abounds!
FWIW, I moved off a V6 Torrent to the new CX13…..MUCH better gas mileage and even at a smaller V4, it has amazing pick up and go through a great torque system and I get 32 mpg in an SUV….can’t really beat that outside of paying out the wazoo for a hybrid.
P-Town Brave ©
November 9th, 2012
3:31 pm
Shaun-
Thats quite interesting as I’d have pegged you the complete opposite of that….
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:33 pm
Cx13, you drive a guitar?……
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:34 pm
most all the green folks are smug….
Shaun
November 9th, 2012
3:36 pm
ncscoots, I’m not a statistician nor do I pretend to be. But you don’t have to be a statistician to see that Willingham is no Uggla. A lot of statistics in baseball don’t require you to be a statistician or statistical expert. They just require the faculty of basic human logic and reason. I wouldn’t never attempt an in-depth statistical research project but I certainly feel like I (and most baseball fans) can follow along and understand such research that has been done in the world of baseball. But I feel that some baseball fans don’t want to bother with even attempting to understand. They want to dismiss it all because they view counting and math as having a limited place in baseball. But it’s pretty obvious that counting things that occur on a baseball field and examining how it relates to creating an preventing runs is pretty useful, and has nothing to do with an avoidance of the human side of the game, or whatever attacks are levied upon people who do math in the realm of baseball.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
3:39 pm
DOB
What is the real story behind Uggla’s decline in Atlanta, from your perspective? Did he bulk up too much? Is he in decline? Any insight?
If Dan could get back to his career norms (255/345/470) he’d be good enough to hit probably 5th in this lineup, and then our choice of a LF’er would be less crucial.
P-Town Brave ©
November 9th, 2012
3:40 pm
Weird…..that should have said 5 Nolie….
CX-5
Half Empty
November 9th, 2012
3:42 pm
I think that a CX13 is a Mazda too noles
DAP
November 9th, 2012
3:42 pm
DS1 How much would you offer a guy like Heyward or Freeman for 10 years? 80 mil? Would they take it?
no, more than 80mil. probably more like $130mil for heyward. slightly less for freeman.
maybe thats crazy, and i know its a risk but heres why i do it.
with the braves ownership and tv deal, its unlikely revenue will increase dramatically over the next decade and a half, so its also unlikely that payroll will rise much. the way i see it, the BEST bet for the braves to continue to be competitive for the next decade is for our young players to be all we hope they will be. in other words, were gonna live or die by these players. i say, hitch the wagon to them. know what im saying?
ncscoots
November 9th, 2012
3:42 pm
Am I knowledgeable of statistical methodology? Compared to whom?
Why, me, of course.
I think the point was being made that asking you about differential signficances was perhaps misplaced. Without some understanding of how statistical models and methodologies derive validity, it’s difficult for someone to truly understand the measure of a statistical significance within that model. I think you’ve said before that you have had no formal training in statistics, correct? That’s all we were talking about.
I merely seized the opportunity to take your reply, in which you did something called “ascribing without cause”, and create a small joke about logical fallacies. Little humor.
P-Town Brave ©
November 9th, 2012
3:43 pm
DS1-
I think whichever way you slice it, Uggla should bat 6th….
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:44 pm
I’ve heard that the CX5 Mazda is quite a nice vehicle.
Shaun
November 9th, 2012
3:44 pm
ncscoots, also, I think a major problem is that baseball people, like me, are afraid of the realm of statistics and to get too far in to the mixture of statistics and baseball. I can understand that, in some ways. You don’t want to have to re-think the assumptions in the world that you’re used to, the baseball world, when the questioning of those assumptions seems to be coming from another world, the world of statistics. But it’s not abandoning baseball to follow along with what the statistical world brings to it. The statistical world actually enhances the baseball world and makes it more vivid.
David O'Brien
November 9th, 2012
3:44 pm
No deals, but Wren says GM meetings were productive
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/11/09/no-deals-but-braves-say-gm-meetings-productive/
Murph
November 9th, 2012
3:45 pm
Fiat and SmartCar owners are quickly gaining ground on Prius owners, at least here in Austin.
A couple months ago a guy in our office building (not in my company) sent out an email to everyone asking if they knew the owner of a Smart Car parked in our parking garage. He rides a motorcycle to work and parks in the parking garage. Turns out this Smart Car owner was too lazy to find their own spot, so they decided to share the motorcycle’s parking spot, pulling within centimeters of the bike.
When I went outside that night to get in my car I noticed a crowd had gathered in the parking garage and everyone was taking pictures. The motocycle driver and turned the Smart Car over so that it was sitting upside down, still within the parking spot.
P-Town Brave ©
November 9th, 2012
3:45 pm
What I meant to say was 2013 Mazda CX-5
Brain not as quick as fingers……
Or as Redd Fox would say, I’m just a big dummy!
DS1
November 9th, 2012
3:45 pm
If I’m Frank Wren, I’d offer Bourn a 4/60 contract, with a club option for the 5th and 6th years. Tell him that he was a good fit for the club, and that we’d love to have him back. Give him a week to mull it over.
Then deal for Span or Fowler if he doesn’t bite.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:46 pm
“lies, damn lies, and statistics”
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:50 pm
I kinda like the Smart Car, but i would need one for each foot ….
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:51 pm
scared to death of Fowler, Coors guys usually sukk
ncscoots
November 9th, 2012
3:53 pm
The motocycle driver and turned the Smart Car over so that it was sitting upside down, still within the parking spot.
Get that man a longneck, on my tab.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
3:54 pm
I tease quite a bit about economical vehicles (I own three SUV’s that are not overly “green”), but I really don’t have issues with folks trying to save money on fuel. What is scary though is seeing those smart cars driving down the freeways with all the OTR trucks and fast driving folks zooming around them like crazy.
What I really would love would be a job that would allow me to ride a horse to work! Now that would be classy!
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:54 pm
I used to really like the little Nash Metro back in the 50s
Murph
November 9th, 2012
3:54 pm
Fowler’s away splits in 2012: .262/.339/.381/.720
So long as he’s cheap, he’s not a horrible option.
RC
November 9th, 2012
3:55 pm
Fiat and SmartCar owners are quickly gaining ground on Prius owners, at least here in Austin.
Here in Atlanta, we are just now seeing more and more Prius’s hit the road. Think we are a few years from seeing many SmartCars.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
3:55 pm
get urself a ranch
DS1
November 9th, 2012
3:55 pm
nolie
Yeah, I’ve seen those splits for Fowler. Kinda scary. Didn’t hurt Holliday, but Fowler ain’t no Matt Holliday either.
ncscoots
November 9th, 2012
3:57 pm
I think a major problem is that baseball people, like me, are afraid of the realm of statistics and to get too far in to the mixture of statistics and baseball.
I’d call that a terribly naive assumption. It’s my guess that every FO has evaluation models that would make your head spin. FOs may rely on them to a greater or lesser degree, but don’t kid yourself that any of them are statistically atheistic.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
3:57 pm
Talking about low K rates and good OBP, I have but one question: Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio!
Shaun
November 9th, 2012
3:58 pm
ncscoots, I do have some understanding of how OPS+ for instance derives validity. OPS correlates strongly with scoring runs. But OPS can be greatly influenced by league environment and park environment and all sorts of environmental factors, so OPS+ attempts to adjusts for those factors, as seems to do a pretty good job, as OPS+ correlates very well to run scoring.
Now I didn’t come up with OPS+, of course. But I can follow along with how it works and assess the case for why it’s relevant. Some might say that’s not having a mind of my own and relying on others, etc. But there is nothing wrong with relying on folks smarter than you, as long as you’ve examined what you’re looking at with some skepticism and some reason. It beats relying on mere assumptions and biases and relying on folks who haven’t built a rational case for their views.
For example, the whole Nate Silver drama from the last couple of weeks. If you can follow along and have some basic reasoning skills and basic math skills, it was easy to follow along with Silver’s projections. And if you wanted to be as objective as possible about things, it would be wise to trust his projections more than the assumptions of some political blowhards who haven’t built some well-thought-out model for projecting the race and are just relying on assumptions and biases.
This relates to baseball, as well. You don’t really have to be some sort of unique genius of a person to grasp some basic statistical and math concepts applied to baseball. And it’s not about labels of “sabermetric” or “anti-sabermetric” or anything else. It’s about intellect and intellectual curiosity (perhaps more so than intellect) that will lead you to some knowledge. I think that gets lost when we try to put labels on everything and everything has to be “sabermetric” or “anti-sabermetric” or “traditional,” etc. Just ask does it make sense? Is the case made and is it thorough and reasonable?
DS1
November 9th, 2012
3:59 pm
It’s snowing to beat the band out this way today! Got about 3-4 inches so far. Mountains look beautiful!
Murph
November 9th, 2012
3:59 pm
DS1, I don’t actually mind the people who drive gas-sippers, either… so long as they stay outta the fast lane. I got places to go, kids full of grape juice, and heaven help the Prius owner who’s doing 40 in a 60 when I’ve got the 4 year old in the back seat yelling “It’s too late! It’s too late!” as she pees all over her car seat.
Shaun
November 9th, 2012
4:00 pm
ncscoots, oh, I’m not talking front offices, at all. I agree that front office people are probably the most sophisticated baseball people around.
I’m more talking baseball fans, baseball media, etc., even the smart ones.
Ward
November 9th, 2012
4:01 pm
Hello everyone! Now we have a better idea what Wren will be up to. The question is will Wren, make the move, or go with youngsters again.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:01 pm
You’d think that Frank would have at least resigned Ross or Johnson or heck, even Durbin. Would give us something besides stats to talk about………. and Smart Cars!
Ward
November 9th, 2012
4:02 pm
I’m trying to be positive here, but I don’t like the way Wren, is talking right now,and it’s possible Wren, could not make a deal again?
Murph
November 9th, 2012
4:02 pm
Speaking of cars, any of you old guys have a ‘55 Chevy hidden away in a barn or behind your house? I’m looking for a new project car….
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:02 pm
always liked Ted and Stan better than Joe. in 1969 Joe was voted the games greatest living player, highly debatable, and thereafter in his speaking engagements he always insisted on being introduced that way from what I heard from several sources back in the day
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:03 pm
Murph
About 5 years ago, I passed a middle aged lady on a scooter on the freeway. She was in the slow lane, thank goodness, going about 45 mph. And she was driving with 1 hand, and TEXTING with the other hand!
I wanted to honk at her, but I was afraid I might contribute to her death so I didn’t.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:04 pm
get a 57
Murph
November 9th, 2012
4:04 pm
I’m trying to be positive here, but I don’t like the way Wren, is talking right now,and it’s possible Wren, could not make a deal again?
Offseason Ward is back. Don’t we go over this every offseason, Ward? Relax… it’s November 9th. Lots and lots of time to make deals.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:05 pm
honk at her? shoulda run her off the road….
Ward
November 9th, 2012
4:06 pm
The way the money talk is? It’s worries me some, but I’m still trying to think positive, and hope Wren, can get us Span, Pagan, and I read that there’s a pssibility of Jacob Ellsbury trade? Would accept Fowler too.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:06 pm
nolie
You couldn’t go wrong with ANY of those 3 guys. Plus a boat load of others.
Murph
November 9th, 2012
4:07 pm
get a 57
I like the ‘57 Chevys, but there’s just something about the ‘55… I like the smaller fins I guess.
Ward
November 9th, 2012
4:07 pm
Thanks Murph!I did read that Braves think Jacob Ellsbury could be a fit.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:07 pm
folks like her are a menace, better she take a dirt nap than an innocent family of five….
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:08 pm
55 was a good year for Chevy’s and for births.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:09 pm
57 was my first car, I liked the fins and there were more vibrant colors readily available too
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:11 pm
still I always wanted a lil’ Nash Metro as a pet
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:11 pm
I loved all those mid to late 50’s models. But the one that doesn’t seem to be as popular is the 56. Kind of a tweener. But I think its a classy vehicle.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:12 pm
true, not much difference tween the 55 and 56 and a big difference in the 57, stuck in the middle
Ward
November 9th, 2012
4:12 pm
What about Jacob Ellsbury? Not a bad idea? Question is staying healthy? I would consider taking a chance with a trade.
ncscoots
November 9th, 2012
4:12 pm
Just ask does it make sense? Is the case made and is it thorough and reasonable?
I don’t think I’m getting my point across, at all. I don’t doubt that you can read the documentation of a mathematical model and nod your head assentingly that, yes, that makes sense. Good enough. My bet is that we’ve bored the forum long enough with this.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:13 pm
My dad had a 56 Crown Vic when I was a little kid. Sky blue and white with the continental kit. Didn’t have the bubble roof though.
But he was too ansy for a convertible and dealt it for a 58 Ford Convertible with the motorized top that collapsed into the trunk.
That’s why I am a convertible nut.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:14 pm
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
brian
November 9th, 2012
4:16 pm
Espn.com has a story on potential trades for Elssbury. Braves are #1. 1 year of Ellsbury for Ahmed and Teheran.
I would hope that we could get more than a 1 year rental for Teheran and Ahmed
ncscoots
November 9th, 2012
4:18 pm
always liked Ted and Stan better than Joe.
My father always said DiMaggio was the best he ever saw, though. I snickered at that as a youngster, of course. He said the only two good things about WWII for him were coming home alive plus getting to see DiMaggio play, every day for a week.
Interesting to note that his take on Andruw vs DiMaggio was “close”.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:18 pm
I think that was the Ford fairlane retractable hardtop Wayne, my dad, always a big Ford fan, had one. cool car. think it came out in 58
Ward
November 9th, 2012
4:20 pm
After doing some thinking on Bourn. I would let him walk. He’s not worth the high price. Braves can do better. Let some other team be stupid, and pay the price. Bourn might be good for a couple of seasons, but then what? Very risky, so let him walk.
Lew
November 9th, 2012
4:20 pm
As much as Ellsbury stays hurt, we’d be lucky if it even was a one year rental.
Ward
November 9th, 2012
4:21 pm
I don’t wan’t a player on the team, who thinks about himself, and money.
Murph
November 9th, 2012
4:21 pm
Ellsbury missing half of 2012, almost all of 2010, but had a career season in between. Not sure what to think about him.
If you’re getting 2011 Ellsbury he might be worth giving up some talent for. 2010 or 2012 Ellsbury, though… meh.
RC
November 9th, 2012
4:22 pm
If trade for, would Ellsbury be the first Native American baseball player to play on the Braves?
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:22 pm
Ted was the best hitter, Joe was the best defender, but all around I think Stan the Man might have been the best, anyway three great ones at the same time to some extent
RC
November 9th, 2012
4:23 pm
I don’t wan’t a player on the team, who thinks about himself, and money.
I don’t think you can find 25 players in the major leagues who would be qualified for Ward’s team by this criteria.
I don’t really care what players on my team think about, as long as they play baseball well.
cricket
November 9th, 2012
4:23 pm
I don’t wan’t a player on the team, who thinks about himself, and money.
now that all sports teams are dissolved, what are you guys up to?
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:23 pm
Ells is a huge risk
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:24 pm
That’d be a killer OF. Williams, DiMaggio and Musial. Even better than Heyward, Bourn and Prado. (but not by much!)
Murph
November 9th, 2012
4:25 pm
I think Ellsbury was on synthetic testosterone and HGH for his 2011 season. Not only did he never hit anything close to 32 HR before, at any level, he never even had double-digit HR totals before that season.
Now that I think about it more, I’d stay as far the hell away from Ellsbury as I could get. Unless Boston is willing to trade him for Mejia, at least. If they’ll do that, then I’ll reconsider.
DS1
November 9th, 2012
4:26 pm
I really haven’t studied up on Ellsbury’s injuries, so I really can’t say with any authority that he should be good to go. But if he’s healthy, he’d be a killer addition to this team.
But he’s another Boras client, and I’d never make that deal without an extension. We’ve played that game too many times now.
Ward
November 9th, 2012
4:27 pm
If you had to choose between Ellsbury, or Willingham? Who would it be? Just remember that Ellsbury is younger. All, Have a good one! I’ll remain calm……Peace my friends, and “Go!!!!!Braves!!!!!”Talk tonight!
RC
November 9th, 2012
4:28 pm
But he’s another Boras client, and I’d never make that deal without an extension. We’ve played that game too many times now.
We have? The last Boras client we traded for with only a year on his contract left that I can remember was JD Drew. I guess you may be throwing Teixeria and Bourn into your list, but I’d argue that’s a bit unfair, since each of those players had a season and half left on their contracts when the Braves acquired them.
nolie
November 9th, 2012
4:30 pm
butr none re-signed reasonably so I’d include them too