5:38 pm November 2, 2012, by David O'Brien
November 8th, 20129:02 pm
If Victorino truly is in decline, it’ would be like continuing to run Hinske out there as a PH’er last year. Knowing he was going to luck into a hit from time to time; but that he had definitely lost it. I think I’d steer clear of Victorino unless it’s a 1 year with an option.
Signing a guy like Victorino is really not that much of a risk, since we have SCHAFER as the heir apparent!!!
(as ward would say, little humor)
I think Cereal Man is a bit behind either Pagan or Victorino. though every so often he throws up a decent year
I hope DOB did not get rid of Wayne because of his remarks after the election. Wayne is a good guy and good poster
Nope. Didn’t “get rid” of anyone for their political remarks except the vile Mitch C. (our chronic and permanently banned poster from S.F.)
November 8th, 20129:03 pm
David DeJesus would be another guy that’s pretty comparable.
November 8th, 20129:05 pm
I’d prefer not to trade for them unless they are very good at it, or get picked up in a bigger deal for starting players, but I wouldn’t say never. Betemit has been available a number of times recently and I have advocated him in certain circumstances. He was at one time a huge hype as Chipper’s replacement…..
November 8th, 20129:06 pm
Va, you brought up Crisp… I seem to remember reading that Cespedes may also be available. Wonder what it’d take to get him.
If you got and look at Pagan’s career numbers his 2012 season was almost aligned perfectly with his career averages. And he’s been fairly consistent over the past 4-5 years.
November 8th, 20129:08 pm
If he is truly in a decline, then I agree wholeheartedly. However, I just don’t feel on gut instinct that he is. I think Shane has a lot left in the tank and nagging injuries caused him to have a down year. I’d still only give him a short deal even if he’s healthy and still has a lot left, but I’d rather take a short risk signing him to a short term deal say 1 year and a team option or even a 2 year deal with an option than a long risk in the case of Pagan of 4 guaranteed years.
After we factor in money and so on. For example would we rather commit 4 years 40+ million to Angel Pagan, or trade Terdo for CoCo (who’s owed 7 million in 2013) Something like that. Looking at there numbers they both could easily produce similar numbers and even if Pagan is slightly better would it really be worth such the big commitment? Hell what about David DeJesus? The guy posted a 350 OBP this past season and played 148 games. There are a handful of certain OFers out there that I would consider in the same tier or close to Angel Pagan, I’m just not a fan of the guy and don’t see what’s so special. He’s average.
Betemit is the guy who lied to the Braves about his age saying he was older than he was and then after a good first season he sued them to try to get free agency. Never was all that warm to him after that. He was quite the showman as a kid, used to run out on the field and do one of those Ozzie Smith flips while running,
November 8th, 20129:10 pm
I’m wondering what kind of a contract Scott Hairston will be looking for? He might be in the same position Cody Ross was in last year, looking for an opportunity to start full time. Not a very good OBP guy, but he has some pop and can play all 3 OF spots.
not a Crisp fan but not a hater either, just hope we can do better
November 8th, 20129:15 pm
Yeah. I see your point, but still I feel Pagan may be risk just as much as Shane. Now if Wren could get Pagan on a shorter and cheaper deal, then it’d be the better get. I just don’t feel Pagan is worth THAT much.
November 8th, 20129:16 pm
POP QUIZ FOR ALL AJC BLOGGERS
There is a banned substance available that evades the current MLB testing protocol. However there is a test that detects it.
You are the Commissioner – Do you approve use of the new test risking the suspension on many players, or do you look the other way?
Think before you answer
November 8th, 20129:17 pm
I really haven’t kept up with Victorino this past year, other than to look at the numbers. If he truly was banged up, that might explain the numbers dropping. I’m sure the Braves know all this. I guess we’ll just have to trust them to get the right players for us.
November 8th, 20129:18 pm
Angel Pagan has only been a starter for 3 seasons (after breaking out and playing 88 games in 2009) Had a good 2010 and then seen his OPS drop over 70 points the next season, then was shipped off and had a great year with the Giants. He’s still just a average defender in CF, he’s only great with baserunning and is 31 years old, a 280/330/420 type hitter with 25 SB ability that’s likely to decline. Really solid player, but not 4 year deal worthy to me. He hasn’t even been a starter for 4 years. Thats the really the only reason I’m so against it is cause he’s getting way overvalued to me. I wouldn’t mind him in our Outfield but not for that commitment.
November 8th, 20129:19 pm
I guess that depends on how intrusive the test would be. And how bad you want to clean up the game.
November 8th, 20129:21 pm
Francisco can hire a personal trainer and a dietician. Then he can hit 500 in winter ball. Then some will be all giddy with unrealistic expectations next year. He will still butcher plays at 3B and strike out more than Uggla were he to play a full season as a regular. Yep, more than Uggla. Hard to believe but he would take the K title from Uggs.
He can’t play good enough to be a regular on a team that wants to contend for titles. Getting in shape will help a little but it wont keep him from swinging at all those sorry pitches.
To be fair, Victorino’s age is a partial reason for this past year’s down season and his bat speed has slowed a tiny bit, it comes with the aging process, but I am a big Victorino fan and I followed him with the Phillies and with Dodgers this year and it was more so the nagging injuries from the past creeping up on him and biting him. Even then, I do feel Victorino has quite a bit left in the tank. In the right scenario, like being signed by Atlanta, it will give him a fresher start.
And I’m not saying I wanna see the Braves bring in CoCo Crisp or David DeJesus, just saying go look at there production compared to Pagan who’s gonna come with a sizable commitment.
The test is no less intrusive than the current one
Your second point is the key one, how many and what would it do to the game
November 8th, 20129:23 pm
Meant no more intrusive
If you’re serious about getting rid of PED’s, then you test em all.
November 8th, 20129:24 pm
My point exactly on Pagan.
Yeah, I agree we’ll just have to trust Wren and Co. because even though they’ve produced some duds, their overall tenure, they’ve done way more good than bad. So I do have faith in them to put the team together on the field.
I’m still gonna express my wants though, in hopes they actually listen to me
November 8th, 20129:25 pm
Look the other way….
Gotta love Key: How about looking into charges against the scout that said Pastornicky was a MLB SS last year and left the position in turmoil the entire year? AT least demote him to washing and folding clothes.
November 8th, 20129:26 pm
I’m with you, but does Selig have the balls to do it?
November 8th, 20129:27 pm
Trust me, the game will take a major hit
I’d still only give him a short deal… — BFChris28
The problem is he’s a Free Agent, and FAs usually look for something longer than a short deal. In Victorino’s case, being there’s a dearth of good CFers, he’ll probably get more than you or Frank are willing to give him.
November 8th, 20129:28 pm
I know DeJesus has played a good bit of CF, but how good is he out there?
November 8th, 20129:30 pm
True, but I’m just holding out hope Wren can get Victorino, even if he has to go slightly more than what I’d go for him.
November 8th, 20129:31 pm
Maybe the safe choice would be to announce that beginning in ST of 2014, the test would be administered. And give them a chance to go clean.
But I’m guessing that there will constantly be guys trying to figger out how to beat the system. If you have enough money, you can buy a lot of medical knowledge to dodge that shyt.
November 8th, 20129:32 pm
If the Braves don’t sign Victorino, I hope he ends up in the AL. He’s always been a pain in the butt against Atlanta.
November 8th, 20129:36 pm
DeJesus would likely be a below average in CF at this point
November 8th, 20129:38 pm
It’s a synthetic testosterone, they rub on their arm after playing. It take their ratio from 1:1, up to 10-15:1.
Now 6 hours later the level drops to below 4:1, the acceptable level
You get the benefit of tissue repair, healing and recovery, and it promotes muscle growth.
Really hi-tech stuff
November 8th, 20129:39 pm
DOB – what would it take to get the Padres talking on Headley?
November 8th, 20129:41 pm
At my age I could use some stuff like that
Is that the gel stuff I see on the late night commercials? And if this stuff is so good, what are the downsides? Wouldn’t it be smart to make it legal to use?
November 8th, 20129:42 pm
Trader – as commissioner you put in place the new test but put it far enough in the future so people can stop using it prior to testing starting
November 8th, 20129:43 pm
Just for sh!ts and giggles
OPS + Pagan 106 DeJesus 106
CF Defense Pagan-Average DeJesus-Below Average
Career Batting Line
Pagan 281/333/424/757 Age 31
DeJesus 281/355/419/774 Age 32
Pagan, free agent, likely to get 4 years 40-50 million
DeJesus, 4.25 million (would have to trade for) 2014 option 6.5 million
November 8th, 20129:44 pm
Correct. Announce the new testing now, effective with ST, give these characters time to purge it from the system
So it says Cardinals’ GM is looking for LH Relief Pitchers.
Venters + for Jon Jay?
I’d be up for that. I like EOF over Venters, so I’d trade Venters over EOF. Can always pursue more relief after doing that trade?
November 8th, 20129:47 pm
The current MLB drug test costs approx $150. The new test to detect this product would cost $400.
November 8th, 20129:53 pm
David De Jesus is better than Coco Crisp. Better OBP.
Crisp still gives you defense in CF.
I would rather see the Braves make a better splash than that. Like a deal for both Willingham and Span together.
Scott Hairston, nah. He is a platoon player, the kind of player you go for if you are going on the cheap.
November 8th, 201210:06 pm
If the substance has no long term negative health impacts (like cortizone or aspirin) make it legal.
November 8th, 201210:10 pm
PEDS never bothered me all that much
November 8th, 201210:14 pm
PEDS never bothered me all that much — nolie
They did to me. Players cheating using drugs that can harm the body put pressure on others to do the same.
November 8th, 201210:16 pm
I’m a little surprised coming from an old school traditionalist
November 8th, 201210:18 pm
Bourn to decline qualifying offer; Hamilton not a fit for ATL, but who might be?
November 8th, 201210:24 pm
I don’t think i’m all that traditional. I use both sets of stats but prolly more the newer ones. I am not a stolen base or small ball guy to any great extent. Even back in the dark ages when I was scouting I looked at numbers more than most did. Like most things in baseball and in life I am pretty much in the middle the last 25 years or so.
November 8th, 201210:34 pm
I was referring to your comment regarding PEDS
November 8th, 201210:36 pm
I have always been torn on PED’s. I’m think I am against steriods, as I have heard a lot of bad side effects from using them. Some of the other things (HGH, testosterone, etc) I am not as familiar with.
I have known people who have been put on treatments to increase healing or to solve a medical issue. I’d think there might be some value to some of the things that are out there.
What are the downside to these testosterone gels that we are hearing about? I really don’t know.
November 8th, 201210:38 pm
And I hate small ball early in the game.
Anal leakage, Wayne
McFann :Ô: :Ô: :ô:
CB he’s heard about you,he won’t hurt Brian. The wrath of McFann puts fear in all men.
You better believe it!…
November 8th, 201210:39 pm
yes I know, but I’m not really an old school traditionalist, just mostly old. so that shouldn’t make you surprised by my PEDS thoughts is what I meant.
Not thrilled that it happened, but I saw prevalent cheating long long b4 they arrived and to me a cheater is a cheater, he’s not any worse because he has the advantage of better cheating aids IMO.
oh well, not really wanting to get in a debate about it, we all see such things differently.
In the current question I guess I would give fair warning such as ST 2014 as someone already suggested. After that if they are stupid enough to get caught it is on them
November 8th, 201210:47 pm
I really understand. Back in the day a broken down minor league player who worked with me, advised me to tell everyone that I was throwing a forkball. In reality, I could load one up that would make Gaylord Parry proud.
Get any advantage you can
November 8th, 201210:50 pm
Braves should go after Shin Soo Choo, Cleveland needs pitching bad…..send them Hanson and some youngsters to get it done!!!
Frosted Lucky Charms
November 8th, 201211:08 pm
So the Braves need a big RH bat for the OF and Justin Upton is available and the Braves aren’t making a play? Ah typical Braves management…so much for going for premium players. No wonder Braves are always knocked out of the playoffs or just fall short. Lets sign or trade for some aging veterans like Willingham and Hunter though, or injury prone players like Span. 25 million to spend and assets to trade yet the Braves aren’t interested…unbelievable.
November 8th, 201211:27 pm
November 8th, 201211:28 pm
I’m very much in favor of medicine which promotes healing. I have a hard time calling that cheating.
Something which amps up on field performance or promotes unnatural physical feats … that’s cheating to me. Might as well legalize cyborgs and call it done.
I also have problems with guys who can get r done without aids amping up just so that they can get unreal numbers. Marginal players? Heck, you have to fill up your roster with some guys.
When robots take over he sport, at least Shaun will be happy.
Although “clutch” takes on a whole new meaning in the robo baseball leagues.
November 8th, 201211:42 pm
Hey guys what the hell happened to Julio teheran?? Ridiculous !!!
November 9th, 201212:05 am
great game VT and FSU,
November 9th, 201212:14 am
cant believe i am saying this but if you are spending the money spend it wise.
if the free gent market blows, do not fill it for the need, fill it for the best player available.
that is greinke. front end load our rotation.
we sure can back end it.
look at what the giants did,
trot out greinke, hudson, medlen, minor, maholm.
trade hanson. maybe trade delgado for the cf the twins give us.
think about that rotation.
that is a better option then swisher or b.j. upton.
November 9th, 201212:20 am
our team is built to keep leads.
gotta go with lew on keeping EOF.
the guy is .shutdown.
with him and Venters.
point is uggla and the 12 million dollar guy that wont play till May better hit.
November 9th, 201212:26 am
the greinke thing makes more and more sense. he replaces Hudson next year. he fronts the rotation.
i can go without the options that are available offensively.
get a CF.
November 9th, 201212:29 am
Did you run everybody off? How about Dan Haren? Been pretty consistent starter for his entire career. I’m not convinced Greinke is worth the dough he is slated to get.
November 9th, 201212:35 am
I wouldn’t spend money just because I had it either. If I didn’t like the choices, I’d go a different route. Maybe spring for a big starter. Who’s out there available for a trade?
November 9th, 201212:42 am
wayne, off the cuff maybe we should trade obama for frank wren, one knows a budget the other?
got your back my man.
November 9th, 201212:48 am
Wishful thinking my friend…….
It might be a bumpy ride for a while.
November 9th, 201212:56 am
wayne, really it is not so much different.
in the current system, MLB taxes the the teams with big revenue, their is no hard cap.
i do not beguile any of the big revenue teams.
November 9th, 201212:58 am
i do disdain owners that take this shared revenue an whine about it.
November 9th, 20121:03 am
I don’t either. I also think it’s ok for a team to operate on a reasonable budget. I kinda like that my team can’t just go out and willy nilly spend money like it grows on trees.
I think some of the large budget teams are starting to pull back a tad bit.
This Todd Cunningham kid seems to be doing well in the winter league.
November 9th, 20121:04 am
so either MLB goes the the way of the NFL. or they deal with the current structure.
funny thing is if a hard cap was put into effect the labor union would cry foul.
November 9th, 20121:08 am
The union has a lot more power in baseball than in the NFL.
But the influx of this big TV money is a little scary. Baseball might need to reevaluate their shared revenue plan.
November 9th, 20121:09 am
wayne, balance of competion wise do you think it is fair that pirates operate at 48 million and the yanks are at 200 million?
November 9th, 20121:11 am
wayne, you nailed it. the MLB baseball union is owns the league.
November 9th, 20121:12 am
probably union wise one of the strongest in the nation.
November 9th, 20121:16 am
That’s a tough question (fairness of one team operating much lower than others). I’m a capitalist at heart, but baseball is a national pastime. I think baseball owes it’s fans the potential of all teams having a shot at being competitive. But the whole “making it fair for everybody” rubs me the wrong way.
So I am torn. I do think that there should be some sort of agreed upon limitations for some teams that have access to a higher revenue stream. I think……….
November 9th, 20121:19 am
on the other side of the coin i think the owners are also prospering. the new national TV contract pretty much speaks for itself.
we on the other hand are about to be handcuffed to our new 20 year regional deal which pales into comparison.
November 9th, 20121:22 am
wayne, NESN has a lot bigger revenue potential then the cable network in K.C.
November 9th, 20121:24 am
why do you think major league baseball said we could not broadcast all of our games on TBS anymore?
regional network dollars.
November 9th, 20121:26 am
And these owners paid good money for their franchises and are deserving of making a profit. Well at least the last time I checked, it was still ok in this country to make a profit. We’ll see how that develops.
November 9th, 20121:28 am
why do you not see barely any games on WGN anymore?
November 9th, 20121:30 am
Gonna head off for now. Good chatting with ya.
You going to be heading out west this winter?
November 9th, 20121:34 am
wayne, i am all for the owners. all in.
only difference is their ability to sell their product.
some owners have a more dense and larger populated area to sell their product.
November 9th, 20121:40 am
wayne, no Alta trips planned this season. our crew started at around 15 about 20 years ago fell to about 6 four years ago. everyone now has an excuse, families.
those darned families………..
November 9th, 20121:45 am
by the way Alta is the best ski mtn. in the country. peak is only around 8500 but the powder is the best.
they do not allow snowboarders.
November 9th, 20121:46 am
So I was just reading where AJ Pierzynski’s childhood dream was to play for the Braves.
November 9th, 20121:51 am
wayne, macfann already has her ire out for him. scroll back.
November 9th, 20122:57 am
After reading the comments of Dbacks GM Towers, i dont think its so unrealistic that the Braves cant find a way to trade for Upton. Trade Teheran, Hanson/Delgado, and Venters for Upton.
November 9th, 20123:30 am
Hello everyone! This goes back to what I was thinking. Braves should pass on Bourn now, and agree. Way too much money for his age, and will fall out at the end of contract. Pagan, Span, Torii Hunter would be the best bet for the Braves. In a couple of seasons bring up Cunningham, or Gattis. Why spend money on huge contracts, and players that fall out at the end of their years? Best way is to spend money wisely. Buy 2 players for under 20 million instead of one, or trade?
November 9th, 20124:12 am
Wren seems to be saying we have 20M to spend: 95M payroll in 2012, will go up a little in 2013, which sounds like 100M. And he suggests spending 20% on two players, 20M. And he does not want to spend 20% on one player.
Even though splitting the money 10/10 would be ideal, I’ll guess the nosebleed level for a single difference maker would be about 15M, or splitting the money 15/5. His point seems to be that if a single player gets hurt or goes in the tank (like Uggla), you don’t want 20% tied up in that.
The problem is that a lot of the appealing players are via trade, and could cost less than 20M together. I suppose you could trade two pitchers, not just one, then sign a FA to replace one of them. Then you would be spending your 20M on three players (CF, LF, pitcher) and that way you spread your risk of injury or non-performance even more, which I suppose Wren would like based on the interview.
November 9th, 20124:16 am
And if Maholm was one of the two you traded (even though I like him a lot), you could eat 2M of his salary, save 4M, so you really have 24M to spend, and you could spend an average of 8M on each spot, CF, LF, P.
November 9th, 20125:17 am
they are not gonna spend money on a starter
November 9th, 20126:38 am
nolie: I know diddly about baseball compared to the regulars on the board, so help me out here. In a vacuum I agree they have no need to spend money on a pitcher. But if both OF spots are filled via trade, and we have to use more pitching than we really want to make those trades, why would we not “spend money” to fill that gap we have created with a new pitcher as a rough equivalent of a guy we just traded?
I see attractive CF/LF combinations where both players are under contract, but maybe available via trade.
November 9th, 20126:50 am
Francisco is not my cup of tea for several reasons, but I don’t see too much “Yunel” factor with him. I wish he showed a lot more evidence of dedication to the finer points of the game–fielding, fitness, plate discipline. Maybe he has it, but it just doesn’t show. But the numbers don’t lie. If he was just “below average” with his pitch selection/plate discipline, his numbers show that as a starter, or at least as a platoon, he would be a pretty impressive hitter. I think Wren sees that, so he will give him every chance. I’m sure Wren has limits to his patience. Francisco is 25, which is certainly within the range of ages when a lot of players begin to flourish at the MLB level, and some of those guys seem far more disciplined from the beginning.
From what I see and hear, he needs to grow up and get a clue. I would hate to see him do that in 2013 with a different ball club. He might hang around long enough to be insurance against some kind of injury to another player, like Prado or one of our OFers (Prado moving back to the OF). Otherwise, I could see him being part of a mid-season move. Or maybe Wren was talking him up yesterday because he is going to be dealt now.
November 9th, 20126:56 am
I think Juan “San” Francisco will be Prado’s backup in ‘13, Prado being the better talent and a much more disciplined athlete.
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