5:38 pm November 2, 2012, by David O'Brien
November 6th, 20125:25 pm
Lew,the brick wall works.
November 6th, 20125:26 pm
Sigh….. 14 great starts an ace maketh not. Having 2 guys do such, a front-line duo maketh not.
A great 2nd half from a rotation, after we attempted to trade for an ace, a formidable rotation maketh not.
The sample size is too small for me (and others). Sorry.
November 6th, 20125:27 pm
CB – Denial always leaves you with options I suppose.
November 6th, 20125:28 pm
No, we’re sorry you just don’t understand reality.
November 6th, 20125:30 pm
Tried to trade for an Ace? You mean Dempster? Or Maholm?
November 6th, 20125:32 pm
But I suppose we can start preparing the Cy Youngster and HOF plaques for Medlen and Minor now… That 2nd half was a sign of their future careers.
November 6th, 20125:33 pm
Reality excludes anything that Lew doesn’t agree with.
November 6th, 20125:35 pm
And sometimes, children should be seen and not heard. Grow up.
November 6th, 20125:36 pm
We truly lack a top tier starter, but we still have a good rotation. Gotta feel good about how Medlen emerged and how Minor rebounded in the 2nd half, still have the veteran Tim Hudson and solid back end guys Maholm and Hanson all while having Delgado and Teheran knocking on the door.
November 6th, 20125:37 pm
Dempster…. They even inquired on Greinke, after missing on Dempster I believe. Maholm was a move made after not getting either pitcher, but still needing to replace the disaster that was JJ.
November 6th, 20125:40 pm
Maholm was gotten to be a stable pitcher… Did that fine. He’s not a frontline pitcher though.
We’ll see how the guys perform next year. I want to see it.
November 6th, 20125:54 pm
Good grief ……….
TOBF do you think there is anyone that reads this blog, no matter how casually, that is not aware of your desire for Grienke. Your reasons for said desire and the various methods to have your desire met.
November 6th, 20125:56 pm
November 6th, 20125:58 pm
ESPN’s Jim Bowden’s “Pricing the Free Agents”
Josh Hamilton 5 years 115 million
Zack Grienke 6 years 117 million
Michael Bourn 5 years 75 million
BJ Upton 5 years 70 million
Has Swisher and Pagan at 3 years 33 million
Dan Haren 2 years 22 million
Shane Victorino 3 years 28 million
Cody Ross 2 years 14 million
If you wanna know another player’s just ask.
November 6th, 20126:02 pm
seems a bit low to me, but then I almost never agree with Bowden
November 6th, 20126:06 pm
Keith Law’s Outfield Value Opinions.
Nick Swisher, RF: Interest is running high in the top three outfielders on the market (Josh Hamilton, Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton), which may leave Swisher in the unfortunate position of being too good for the teams seeking one-year bargains but not good enough to compete with his direct competition for the largest free-agent deals. Swisher is a consistent, patient switch-hitter and still very capable from both sides of the plate, and he provides average defense in right. If my guess (and it’s just that) that the market won’t tip his way turns out to be correct, he’d be a great value on a deal as long as three years.
Angel Pagan, CF: So underrated, he might have become overrated. This might be great for him, especially since he played so well in the postseason when the entire industry was watching. I’d love to get Pagan on a two-year deal, something short enough to minimize the chances that his skills decline to the point where he is not an everyday player — especially his speed, which is a skill that can fade quickly past Pagan’s current age of 31. The market could put him into the next category if someone gives him four or even five years.
B.J. Upton, Josh Hamilton, and Michael Bourn: All three have huge risk factors that could cause the long-term deals they sign to go sour. Upton is the youngest and the most likely to hold his value over the course of a five-year-deal, including his defensive ability, but he swings and misses a ton and his patience evaporated this year as he tried to do way too much at the plate (perhaps believing that more homers would get him paid). Hamilton’s off-field issues aside, he is prone to major injuries and is the oldest of the trio. Any five-year deal takes him well into the age range where most players get hurt more often anyway and the range where bat speed starts to fall off. Bourn has the huge defensive value but depends almost entirely on his legs to help his team. If they go, his value drops dramatically, as he has no power and doesn’t walk.
Upton is my top choice of the three. He has the most upside due to his age and broad skill set, while his flaws bother me much less than Hamilton’s.
Cody Ross, OF: He is not a center fielder, he has a .324 career OBP — in fact, his .326 figure in 2012 was his career best in a full season — and his power spike this year was largely a function of playing his home games in Fenway Park, a great place for right-handed hitters. He hit 74 percent of his doubles at home and 59 percent of his homers, posting a .232/.294/.390 line away from Fenway. On a one-year deal to serve as part of a platoon, yes, he has value. Anything more than that for a 32-year-old corner outfielder who doesn’t get on base or make much contact is foolhardy.
November 6th, 20126:07 pm
Bowden’s numbers are all reasonable, but seem on the low side generally.
November 6th, 20126:10 pm
November 6th, 20126:11 pm
I was struck by the fact that after Greinke, there are not a lot of free agent starting pitchers that are game-changing upgrades over what we already have. McCarthy and Sanchez maybe, but maybe not.
November 6th, 20126:13 pm
If we sign Greinke, Maholm would be gone. Not that hard to make space…
With all due respect, I think your obsessive. I’m really not kidding.
November 6th, 20126:14 pm
I bet Cody Ross loved Law’s comments. As I said before, he’s an ideal platoon guy, but he wants full-time money. I like him, and if he’s cheap enough, it might make sense. Otherwise, Justin Upton.
November 6th, 20126:16 pm
Jim Bowden had this to say before the estimated contracts.
I served as a general manager for more than a decade, and committing big dollars to a free agent is always a gamble. You have to try to balance age, injury history, tools, performance and makeup before making an offer.
The following is my estimate of what I what I think will be the 50 biggest contracts given out this winter, based on average annual value (AAV). (I also did this last year if you want to check how I did.) I use AAV because that is what the MLB Players Association is most concerned with when evaluating contracts. When the AAV is equal, tie goes to the contract with greater overall value.
This is not my preferential order, and player salaries and terms are often based on position, supply and demand. To get a better feel for the market, I also talked to agents, scouts and execs who will be heavily involved with this offseason’s bidding.
A few other things to keep in mind as you read this list.
• Industry revenues continue to grow, and that will have a huge impact on free-agent contracts.
• The value of middle relievers continues to grow — expect their salaries to do the same. This particular free-agent class has a solid quantity of quality setup relievers, so expect some surprising salaries for their ilk.
• Corner outfielders are scarce outside of Josh Hamilton, Nick Swisher, Cody Ross and Torii Hunter, but center field is deep with B.J. Upton, Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and Angel Pagan.
• There is only one shortstop on the board, Stephen Drew, and I think he will benefit from that significantly.
• I think Angel Pagan has a chance to become the Aaron Rowand of this free-agent class with someone overpaying beyond his abilities because of his successful 2012.
• Hamilton’s situation obviously will be the most interesting. He’s looking for seven years, but I think he’ll get five with a club option.
oh yeah he is definitely O/C
November 6th, 20126:20 pm
Keith Law also listed 4 outfield trade targets with some comments.
Andre Ethier, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers: I don’t get this one either. The Dodgers gave him a five-year, $85 million contract just a few months ago, and now they want to move him? Ethier is probably fairly paid in market terms, but he is not going to produce enough to live up to the contract given his struggles with left-handed pitching, fringy defense and the fact that he’ll be 35 when the deal ends. Even if the Dodgers find a taker, they’d likely either take a bad contract in return or have to simply give Ethier away, and despite his limitations, he is not in Vernon Wells territory, where the question is whether the player is even worth the roster spot.
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox: Ellsbury will be a free agent after the 2013 season and has played only one full season in the past three, with that one full season accounting for more than half of his career home runs. The Red Sox have his potential replacement, Jackie Bradley Jr., already in Double-A and likely to be ready before the end of the 2013 season. Moving Ellsbury’s potential $10 million-plus salary for younger players would help the Red Sox accelerate their rebuilding process while increasing their short-term financial flexibility. If another team thinks Ellsbury can get back to even 90 percent of what he was in 2011 — a reasonable belief if you assume that his 2012 struggles were health-related — he should fetch one or two elite prospects or young players in return.
November 6th, 20126:22 pm
Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-backs are coy about whether they want to deal Upton, but I keep hearing that GM Kevin Towers doesn’t like Upton’s approach or his high strikeout totals. I can imagine that watching Upton’s at-bats throughout 2012 didn’t help matters, as he hit far more weak grounders and popups than a hitter with his bat speed should. He may need a change of scenery, or specifically a change of coaching staff, to get back to his true talent level, and Arizona has a surplus of outfielders with Adam Eaton, Gerardo Parra and Jason Kubel on the roster.
Shin-Soo Choo, RF, Cleveland Indians: Choo is a free agent after 2013 and has no interest in signing an extension. Cleveland isn’t good enough to justify keeping Choo and paying him $7 million or so this year even though he’ll be worth more than that if healthy. Health has been a frequent issue for Choo, both in keeping him on the field and allowing him to cover the required ground in right, and he has always had a sizable platoon split. That said, getting him for one year and giving him a platoon partner to try to keep him healthy for the full season would provide plenty of value to the acquiring team.
nolie: Justin Upton and Ben Revere? I know it depends on what you give up, but in a vacuum how do you feel about those two?
No kidding……. It’s like a dog chasing his tail
November 6th, 20126:23 pm
GM Meetings start tomorrow… I hope we at least come out of there with some new rumors to talk endlessly about. Don’t think I can handle another 4 weeks of Greinke/Bourjos/Willingham jibber jabber.
November 6th, 20126:24 pm
nolie: not separately, but as a package. And not the details, just in general.
November 6th, 20126:25 pm
I know it’s just more jibber jabber, but why else dig you log on? It’s all a bunch of nonsense, OK?
November 6th, 20126:26 pm
Or Murph, or BM? Can I call you BM?
You’ve been called worse, right?
November 6th, 20126:27 pm
Feel like I’m chasing my tail.
November 6th, 20126:28 pm
Pardon me a second, while I lick myself.
November 6th, 20126:30 pm
OK, I’m done.
November 6th, 20126:33 pm
Can I call you BM? _ old man
November 6th, 20126:38 pm
November 6th, 20126:39 pm
Or Murph, or BM? Can I call you BM?
You old guys sure do like a good scotch in the afternoon, don’t you?
November 6th, 20126:41 pm
Dan haren is an interesting potential addition if he really will only get a 2 year contract
November 6th, 20126:45 pm
If Dan Haren’s healthy, he’s as good as Greinke
November 6th, 20126:47 pm
You are 100% dead on correct. Do you have a surveillance camera here in my study?
November 6th, 20126:49 pm
Best deal around. Grant’s. The back of the bottle has the Glenfiddich crest molded into it. It’s the Glinfiddich blended scotch version. Or their reject batches. Depending on who you ask.
While I believe we need to focus on offense, if the Braves do indeed change there plans and go for a starting pitcher it should be clear cut upgrade. While I like Dan Haren, I just feel like there’s a solid chance he’d repeat his 2012 or just be a solid pitcher like Paul Maholm. If the Braves go for a starting pitcher they might as well go big…
November 6th, 20126:51 pm
Did you miss my post, or did I miss your reply? Do you have a brother Richard, a lawyer in ATL? Or are you a different Brian?
November 6th, 20126:53 pm
old man,we all might need a few more shots before this election night is over.
November 6th, 20126:59 pm
Oh please. After all these debates, campaign ads, phone calls, etc. election nigh is nothing.
night…..keys are sticking
November 6th, 20127:06 pm
Too early to call
November 6th, 20127:09 pm
Old man – no brother Richard. Lawyer different story
November 6th, 20127:11 pm
Too early to call
For real. I could’ve called Georgia about 10 years ago.
November 6th, 20127:20 pm
You guys are slow counters in Ga, all those people with their toes hanging out.
November 6th, 20127:26 pm
all those people with their toes hanging out.
I don’t get it…
We’re such bad counters that we need to use our fingers and toes to help?
November 6th, 20127:27 pm
O/C…. Just not sold on the rotation. Feel better about the offense, especially if we add a good bat in LF. Add a great defender in CF, I’d feel great about our overall defense. Pitching is where I’m hung. We’ll see next year, but I’d bet that it probably won’t be as good as this year.
November 6th, 20127:31 pm
November 6th, 20127:33 pm
Oh….then sorry to kill the joke.
What’s Martin’s WAR again? *takes off socks*
November 6th, 20127:36 pm
Well,I thought it was funny. Maybe George liked it.
November 6th, 20127:43 pm
Geore George doesn’t like anything unless Fredi is indirectly involved
November 6th, 20127:44 pm
Well, regardless of anything else, after tonight I should not have to endure any more of Thomas Peterffy’s ads. That’s a blessing
November 6th, 20127:51 pm
I got it, CB.
Not know if that helps or hurts.
November 6th, 20127:53 pm
Not Don’t know
November 6th, 20128:41 pm
Watching partial election results leaves me as confused as Jerry Meals watching a baseball game
November 6th, 20128:51 pm
Watching partial election results leaves me as confused as Jerry Meals Mitchell watching a baseball game
there I made it board appropriate….
November 6th, 20129:08 pm
Reps will keep the House
November 6th, 20129:24 pm
Your face will keep the House
November 6th, 20129:53 pm
looking at the maps it is obvious that the country is continuing its previous rural/urban split.
Dems will keep the Senate
November 6th, 20129:55 pm
wth was that about Jeffrey?
November 6th, 201210:01 pm
Romney gets Utah, what a surprise
November 6th, 201210:02 pm
I see the Braves trying to trade for Willingham who is under contract for next two years @ 7 mil per and would be a nice bridge gap to Gattis. Also with the interleague games being spread out throughout the season it should help keep him healthy. I then see them adding either Pagan or Victorino for CF.
November 6th, 201210:05 pm
that would be nice P’c, I can get aboard with Pagan and Willingham, in fact already claimed it as one of my fave results. not sure I see it happening though
November 6th, 201210:06 pm
Enter your comments here
November 6th, 201210:07 pm
I am campaigning for Victorino in CF. I have always wanted him on the Braves. A great chance to get him, can’t pass the chance up.
November 6th, 201210:08 pm
Not sure it will either but makes a lot of sense. Adds the stability to our lineup and would still allow money to sign bench guys. We had a very weak bench in my opinion. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I hope they stay away from Cody Ross though as I believe his numbers this year aren’t numbers he’ll continue to produce.
November 6th, 201210:09 pm
I too have always liked Shane but I am a little worried about last season and about how many evaluators have claimed his bat has slowed.
November 6th, 201210:13 pm
Victorino would be a big risk, considering his drop off this past year. Otherwise I like his moxie.
November 6th, 201210:18 pm
Colorado, Iowa and the big four still out there. Romney may have to sweep em to get to 270.
November 6th, 201210:20 pm
There has been a lot of evaluators saying that Victorino’s bat has slowed.
November 6th, 201210:30 pm
November 6th, 201210:37 pm
I’ll wait up till around 11:30, but it does seem tough to trace the path of 270 for Romney. Surprised how well Obama is doing in North Carolina and Florida. Shocked, actually.
November 6th, 201210:40 pm
It was over before it started
November 6th, 201210:44 pm
I kinda think so too Bat, Reps strayed too wide right. I know a lot of independent voters who would have voted other than Obama if the Rep ticket had been a bit more moderate. oh well I didn’t care much for either
November 6th, 201210:45 pm
course with provisional ballots in some states this might drag on for days
November 6th, 201210:48 pm
Romney would need a big comeback in Ohio… he’s got a decent shot to win Florida
November 6th, 201210:50 pm
I don’t see him winning Fla, most of the votes that have not been counted yet are from heavily Dem SFla
course I guess anything can happen. Romney really needs to win down here though
November 6th, 201210:51 pm
What are the rules if the vote is too close in Florida? Automatic recount if they are within a half a point? Not sure.
November 6th, 201210:52 pm
i thought about changing my name to none of the above and paying to get on the ticket. with these pollyanna fascists from both sides id have won with a landfslide and wouldn’t have even had to campaign
November 6th, 201210:53 pm
I don’t see him winning Fla, most of the votes that have not been counted yet are from heavily Dem SFla — nolie
The Panhandle closes last, nolie… usually Republican
November 6th, 201210:54 pm
can’t have fascists from both sides gary
how ya doing bro? I hope as well as possible.
Still sending up prayers.
November 6th, 201210:56 pm
true but the panhandle has much less population and it has been said several times that most still left out are from the Miami area which is traditionally slow to report. We’ll see
November 6th, 201210:58 pm
yeah a recount won’t surprise me at all Wayne no matter who wins the state
Hope you’re doing better gary. I thought if I came on and talked baseball, that I might feel better……………. but it ain’t workin. Though you guys are being awfully kind.
Too damned depressed right now to post anything else.
Take care folks.
November 6th, 201210:59 pm
I didn’t know about Miami-area being slow… but it’s so close right now
Santa Rosa county in the panhandle yet to report
People still in line waiting to vote in Dade and Broward
November 6th, 201211:03 pm
No hurry, Bat, just hope they beat the 36 days it took Florida in 2000.
November 6th, 201211:06 pm
Ha, no kidding, Bobby.
Keeping the courts out of would be nice, too.
Florida health care amendment goes down to defeat.
November 6th, 201211:08 pm
still doing fairly well nolie
my lung capacity is only about 25 % but my doctor today said he was surprised tro see me alive much less basically healthy so keep them prayers coming
not to toot my own whistle but God made me a pretty tough old bird.
i start taking riultek this week its the only thing they have to slow progression down so i’m crossing my fingers that it woeks for me
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