9:11 pm October 22, 2012, by Carroll Rogers
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6,463 comments Add your comment
Efrim
November 1st, 2012
4:41 pm
Nate Silver is getting a good bit of heat(from the right side) for his formulas on the race. Didn’t get to read much of his stuff when he was at BP.
By the way, Jason Parks is replacing Kevin Golstein at Baseball Prospectus as their prospect guy. Goldstein took a job with the Houston Astros as a Pro Scouting Coordinator.
Astros are going at it with a stats-based approach, for sure. Should be interesting to see Luhnow at work, as he was a pretty well respected dude while helping to build the Cards farm system.
DAP
November 1st, 2012
4:43 pm
scoots What the heck, baseball is a game of redemption, right? A run to glory by Schafer would certainly make for an entertaining story.
10paul left, so you can stop that.
MiaBchBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
4:43 pm
Wow!!! Then again, given the absolute dearth of OF’ers in the organization, we would do well to also re-acquire Gregor Blanco, Gorkys Hernandez, and Wilkin Ramirez and bring them back into the fold!!!
Problem solved!!!
MiaBchBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
4:44 pm
OH!!! And Brent Lillibridge too!!! WS, here we come!!!
Efrim
November 1st, 2012
4:44 pm
Well said, cricket. Now more than ever – drafting, developing, international free agents – less and less elite value on the free agent market and capped spending in the draft and internationally.
Roman Gal
November 1st, 2012
4:45 pm
Or an imposter taking advantage of the Schafer name to invoke The Gal’s moniker?
It is I, Roman Gal.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 1st, 2012
4:48 pm
Remember if Wren signs Hamilton Saturday or after that BravePack was the 1st to say it.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
4:48 pm
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears Rick Ankiel is open to giving pitching another shot.
Bring him here… he’s got a strong arm. Power RH in the pen.
Or he could take Hanson’s spot. Can’t do any worse.
Playoffs!!!
November 1st, 2012
4:50 pm
If you have Constanza, why do you need Jordan Schaffer? another lefthanded bat –Ughhh!
CB
November 1st, 2012
4:51 pm
Lefty,TOBF.
Shaun
November 1st, 2012
4:51 pm
DAP, Chipper may not be the best player to illustrate that point but he certainly helps. One of the top three hitters in Braves history doesn’t have a season in the top 36 in RBI.
jj
November 1st, 2012
4:51 pm
Braves have gone to pot..they got Schafer back and he has been busted twice…he will be good in the clubhouse I’m sure. smoke’em JS!
This is great example for kids…since Braves love to brag on how good examples their players are.
phil
November 1st, 2012
4:51 pm
RC
November 1st, 2012
4:27 pm
@JordanSchafer
It’s gonna be nice to hear the Chop everyday again
Do they chop in Gwinnett?
**************
LOLOL!!
Just sign Andruw now and we’re all set….
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
4:53 pm
cricket
November 1st, 2012
4:53 pm
very nice story -
http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/8579599/chy-johnson-boys
phil
November 1st, 2012
4:54 pm
Schafer lit a fire under this thing today….
And maybe, just maybe, lit a bic somewhere as well.
CB
November 1st, 2012
4:54 pm
Probably should have signed Schafer after signing Hamilton,not before.
cricket
November 1st, 2012
4:56 pm
oe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears Rick Ankiel is open to giving pitching another shot.
he should be very effective if MLB allows him to pitch from “infield fly” distance..
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
4:56 pm
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman
Gwinnett will have a new manager next year. The Phillies announced Dave Brundage will manage Triple A Lehigh Valley next year. #Braves
Lateral move…. traitor
Lew
November 1st, 2012
4:59 pm
Efrim – I’ve seen Silver on a couple of shows the past week – it doesn’t surprise me the right is not pleased – he claims they’re not going to win the election – that even if they were to win the popular vot, that they’d lose by virtue of the Electoral College – in other words, damn them Ohio people..
Trader Jack
November 1st, 2012
5:00 pm
Next move? Derek Lowe as the RH set-up guy – LOL
Roman Gal
November 1st, 2012
5:04 pm
Next move? Derek Lowe as the RH set-up guy
That’s just taking it too far.
cricket
November 1st, 2012
5:04 pm
Ryan Dempster
Trader Jack
November 1st, 2012
5:07 pm
Roman Gal
Maybe Wren is a sadistic sob after all
phil
November 1st, 2012
5:07 pm
If we could get Linebrink back?
Pack the place out next year…
cricket
November 1st, 2012
5:07 pm
Next move? Derek Lowe as the RH set-up guy
That’s just taking it too far.
yes, he is a starter
Frankie
November 1st, 2012
5:07 pm
Welcome back Schaf!
Played high school ball with his Pop so one of the few on the blog happy to see J back.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 1st, 2012
5:07 pm
So 17 mil/year for 4 years plus 5th year option gets it done for Hamilton? Carolina boy wants to play close to home for a team he grew up rooting for. Stays out of spotlight, plays in the South where he can focus on being clean and sober and have the right people around him. Once in a lifetime story here right?
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:08 pm
Next move? Derek Lowe as the RH set-up guy
Or Kawakami
Trader Jack
November 1st, 2012
5:08 pm
cricket
He worked out of the ‘pen for the Yankees
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 1st, 2012
5:09 pm
Frankie
I don’t mind the Schafer move at all. Could help on D and the basepaths, plus anything with the bat is an added bonus.
kenhotlanta
November 1st, 2012
5:12 pm
Can Francoeur play Left?
Shaun
November 1st, 2012
5:12 pm
Lew and Efrim, that’s the thing, first of all, he’s not claiming Obama is going to win. He’s putting a probability on it. That’s what his critics don’t understand.
And, to your point Lew, I’m not sure how a political pundit doesn’t understand, no matter where they fall on the political spectrum, that just because the race is a virtual toss-up in the polls doesn’t mean anything in terms of who is likely to win electoral votes.
I’m not sure how you can’t take a sophisticated model like Silver’s seriously, no matter where you fall on the political spectrum. If I were placing a bet, I certainly would want to go with a sophisticated model like that over eyeballing a few polls, without any regard to electoral votes, etc.
cricket
November 1st, 2012
5:12 pm
Trader Jack
just joking around
phil
November 1st, 2012
5:13 pm
I hate to say it but people in the south aren’t nearly as clean and sober as some think…..
I’m clean and sober most always, except after a run.
phil
November 1st, 2012
5:14 pm
electoral college = BABIP
Roman Gal
November 1st, 2012
5:16 pm
Stays out of spotlight, plays in the South where he can focus on being clean and sober and have the right people around him.
In Atlanta? Brett Favre, anyone?
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:18 pm
Uh oh… Looks like the Braves are preparing for the worst when it comes to CF. Chances Jordan is the starting CFer in 2013????
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:19 pm
Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com hears word that Michael Bourn could be looking for as much as $100MM in free agency. The Phillies would probably be reluctant to spend that kind of money on a 30-year-old player who relies heavily on his legs, Salisbury writes.
Bourn is not coming back.
braveslifer
November 1st, 2012
5:21 pm
I think part of the reason that people dont take Silver seriously is because he is oversampling a particular sample of the population based on the 08 election turnout. What he is doing is sampling 8% more Democrats then Republicans which skews the results. In 08 Rasmussen was the poll that most correctly predicted the election results. I would much rather follow a poll that has been correct in the past vs. something that is purely polictically motivated.
Shaun
November 1st, 2012
5:23 pm
Uh oh… Looks like the Braves are preparing for the worst when it comes to CF. Chances Jordan is the starting CFer in 2013????
Virtually 0 percent.
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:25 pm
Shaun
It better be.
brian
November 1st, 2012
5:32 pm
no problem with Schafer as a 4th/5th OF and off the bench especially as a pinch runner.
brian
November 1st, 2012
5:37 pm
still in a holding pattern in regards to OF acquisitions. Odds of it being Gordon are even lower than before with the Royals adding Ervin Santana.
CF – Pagan, Bourjos, BJ Upton, Bourn, Victorino
LF – Willingham, Gordon, Prado
3B – Prado, Headley, Moustakis
Hamilton will not be a Brave. Gordon and Moustakis will not be Braves either unless the Braves feel the need to move Minor or Medlen, or if the Royals are high on Delgado/Prado and other prospects
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:42 pm
Mike (San Diego)
You’re a GM and you get to choose from any of the NL East’s crop of RFs. Who do you take? Heyward, Stanton, or Harper?
Klaw (1:24 PM)
Heyward. Best combination of current production (offense and defense) and future potential.
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:43 pm
Mitch (NC)
What kind of hitter will Christian Bethancourt be? He obviously has no power, I’m guessing he’s not very fast. Will his defense be enough to make him a starter?
Klaw (1:25 PM)
He has power, but he falls into the “can’t hit for power if you can’t hit” category. Defensively he was ready for the majors a year ago.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 1st, 2012
5:45 pm
brian
Some of the experts are saying Hamilton could be a Brave. What makes you so special that you know he will NOT be a Brave? You wouldn’t take that production for like 17 mil a year?
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:46 pm
Ben (Williamsport, PA)
Any thoughts on Teheran? I’ve heard his ceiling isn’t as high as people once thought? He’s been around for a while but he’s still just 21.
Klaw (1:47 PM)
I think that’s fair. Age is a bigger factor for hitters than pitchers, and Teheran’s lack of fastball life or an above average breaking ball are major issues.
P-Town Brave ©
November 1st, 2012
5:49 pm
I’m real confused there….
Why the hell would we even remotely think of dealing Prado?
Sometimes I feel like people talk just to talk….
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:53 pm
DH (Pittsburgh)
There are lots of 1B prospects who have had uneven or terrible starts in the past couple years. Hosmer, Belt, Freeman, Smoak, Ike Davis, Alonso. Who, if any of these guys, is far better than what they’ve shown?
Klaw (2:18 PM)
Freeman’s been the best of that group, but I don’t think there’s a lot of upside left there. Hosmer and Belt both need mechanical changes, Hosmer getting his hands down, Belt keeping his hips back and not loading so deep, but both have high upsides left if that can happen. I could see Davis having some .325/.500 seasons at his peak. The power’s real but he’s always going to strike out.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:54 pm
Trade Prado????? You must be joking
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 1st, 2012
5:58 pm
KLaw is a tool who doesn’t know his head from his azz with all due respect.
TheOnlyBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:58 pm
Gotta agree with Law on Freeman. Didnt take long to near his peak! Hopefully he keeps this up through age 33-34. All with the Braves of course
Needs more range on D though
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
5:58 pm
“Trading Prado” Always can find a good laugh on the blog, Trade Prado who is one of our most valuable players and some how that improves the ballclub. Good One….
Lew
November 1st, 2012
5:59 pm
Shaun – OK, whatever. I wasn’t trying to make a point – merely relaying what I’d heard from Nate Silver the past week.
Honestly, if Efrim hadn’t brought up his name, I wouldn’t have ever mentioned it on my own.
And as to the prediction/probability thing – not sure I really see the difference between the two other than possibly the way they arrived at the prediction – if indeed there is a difference. But nonetheless, the prediction of Obama being victorious was based on Silver’s 75% probability.
BravePack(FreeFan)
November 1st, 2012
6:00 pm
I think I’ll take a Hall of Famer’s word over some hack. Freeman has peaked…what a joke. Chipper said the best is yet to come and it is.
Lew
November 1st, 2012
6:02 pm
And I don’t recall mentioning I was disregarding what he says or disagreeing with how he arrived at his conclusions.
Believe it or not, I look at all sorts of imformation before choosing what I beleve and what I think is a stretch. I just don’t like WAR.
Murph
November 1st, 2012
6:02 pm
Freeman will hit 30+ HR next season… and the next 10 seasons after that.
You heard it here first.
Murph
November 1st, 2012
6:06 pm
What if the Dbacks want Prado in return for Upton? Or the Padres want Prado in return for Headley? Or the Royals want Prado in return for Myers? I know it sounds ridiculous at first glance, but Prado is about to get pretty expensive…
I don’t want to trade him either, but I don’t think he’s untouchable.
Shaun
November 1st, 2012
6:07 pm
I think part of the reason that people dont take Silver seriously is because he is oversampling a particular sample of the population based on the 08 election turnout. What he is doing is sampling 8% more Democrats then Republicans which skews the results. In 08 Rasmussen was the poll that most correctly predicted the election results. I would much rather follow a poll that has been correct in the past vs. something that is purely polictically motivated.
Silver actually factors in multiple polls in addition to other factors. His model also is not politically motivated. As far as what was correct in the past, in ‘08 Silver’s model corretly projected the winner of 49 of 50 states in the presidential race and every US Senate race.
Again, no matter what side you fall on, it’s odd to not take his projection model seriously. I will never get political here but I’m not afraid to get mathematical.
Jeff R
November 1st, 2012
6:12 pm
Schafer: Big upside, small risk. Expect him to start in CF for the Braves in 2013.
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
6:13 pm
I’m big on Freddie as well, still hard to believe he isn’t at 800 OPS or better. His rookie and 2nd seasons are very similar. He made some improvements and stayed pretty consistent. Regardless of what people say I still think we have a really good 1st baseman for years to come and will be happy even if he doesn’t become that 30+ Homer guy year in and out.
Just for sh!ts and giggles but remember alot of people that said Freeman would be like a Sean Casey type 1st baseman? Well Casey’s first 2 full seasons in the majors he OPS’d over 900. both seasons. But only reached that greatness 1 more time in his next 8 seasons.
phil
November 1st, 2012
6:20 pm
Trade Prado for Nate….
make it happen.
David O'Brien
November 1st, 2012
6:21 pm
Another factor that I believe P-Town brought up, which could be circumstantial but a bad trend regardless, is the fact that everywhere he ends up, the team gets worse not better. — BravePack
Oh, no, I’m sure that’s a direct result of Willingham putting up the numbers he did for $7 million last season, nothing to do with the colossal overpayment of Joe Mauer ever since he signed his enormous contract, or Morneau’s drop from 30 homers and 100 RBIs in 2009 to fewer than 20 homers and 80 RBIs in every since since then… Nope, it’s more to do with Willingham. Gotta be.
David O'Brien
November 1st, 2012
6:22 pm
Schafer is back, but not to replace Bourn (Of course, that won’t stop folks from insisting otherwise. Oh well….)
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/11/01/schafer-is-back-but-not-to-replace-bourn/
Couch Tater
November 1st, 2012
6:23 pm
kenhotlanta –
I have not seen Treme, although it sounds like a show I would enjoy.
Several years ago, I went to a nasty salary arbitration with the Tater formerly known as “Dadwillpayforit” and dropped premium channels as part of the deal. A firm negotiator, his side conceded to leave me a scoop of ice cream, out of any half-gallon I purchase.
Funny how that works, huh? An empty ice cream carton leads to the downfall of Time Warner stock on Wall Street. Heck, I may have even been responsible for.. uh.. well..uh.. moneyball! Yeah, that’s it! Moneyball in Atlanta! Great ain’t it?
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:32 pm
LEW:
How are tricks up RANDOLPH way?
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:34 pm
OMG SCHAFER to replace BOURN? We’re doomed!
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:37 pm
Oh yes. A boatload of money, PRADO, and FREEMAN both traded for that must have #1 starter. LaROCHE and SHAFER in center and 1B.
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:41 pm
“…..BravePack(FreeFan)
November 1st, 2012
5:58 pm
KLaw is a tool who doesn’t know his head from his azz with all due respect……”
HEH! A tool who knows nothing doesn’t sound like” all due respect” need be added to that statement………not that I disagree.
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:43 pm
Man, the crazies aboud this evening I see. Where’s “CraZy Trades Man” when you need him?
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:44 pm
Everybody done gone and put on the feed-bag huh?
flange1
November 1st, 2012
6:45 pm
Hey rich,
How are things with you?
Disgusted
November 1st, 2012
6:47 pm
I hate it that Jordan “HGH” Schafer is back — he is a BUMB who does not deserve to be in MLB.
Very CHEAP way to go. I am not fooled, he is Bourn;s replacement. Pls Braves management, DO NOT INSULT OUR INTELLEGENCE.
Schafer cannot play. He sucks to the bottom end of the plumbing system and he is a head case.
Disgusted
November 1st, 2012
6:48 pm
Schafer = ZERO upside, he and Salcedo are the big prospect busts of this century.
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
6:50 pm
Disgusted
I wouldn’t worry about it. At most he’d see a Jose Canstanza type role on the club, but most likely will be in AAA most of the season.
Disgusted
November 1st, 2012
6:51 pm
Freddie is doing fine, two yrs of 20 plus HRS and 94 RBI last yr.
Decent hands at first, not the best of range.
I don’t care about the OPS.
Freddie is young enough to be a 30 HR 100 RBI guy with a good amount of doubles. OPB is adequate.
Disgusted
November 1st, 2012
6:53 pm
Va Braves — To bring this punk pot head HGH guy back in the org is what gets me
I would avoid him due to charachter issues. Bad bad guy. He proved he can’t play in Houston.
nolie
November 1st, 2012
6:53 pm
we all know that KLaw hates the Braves…..
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:53 pm
“……brian
November 1st, 2012
5:32 pm
no problem with Schafer as a 4th/5th OF and off the bench especially as a pinch runner……”
“Oh my” uttered with a KEITH JACKSON-style exhalation.
Disgusted
November 1st, 2012
6:54 pm
I’d take Constanza over a bad charachter like Schafer anyday.
He (Schafer) is a bad bad guy. A whiner too who never took responsibility for his HGH use.
phil
November 1st, 2012
6:54 pm
And Schafer deserves to be booed, of course…
nolie
November 1st, 2012
6:55 pm
yup just what we need, a bench player who hits even worse than Georgie
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:55 pm
flange1:
Hangin’ man, hangin’……you? Well I hope.
phil
November 1st, 2012
6:57 pm
Georgie is simply misunderstood….
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
6:59 pm
Relax guys, SCHAFER will never see the pine in ATLANTA. GWINNETT is probable, MISSISSIPPI possible. The system needs defense and outfield arms. Looks to be FELIX PIE behind first JOHNSON, and second CONSTANZA.
Disgusted
November 1st, 2012
7:01 pm
Va Braves — Freddie has had OPS of .795 and 796 in his 2 yrs, that is close enough to 800 to me.
And his OBP is in the 340’s, I like his amount of doubles and I expect him to hit closer to 30 next yr (more like in the 28 to 32 range.
I don’t think Casey was even a 20 HR guy. He was pretty average.
nolie
November 1st, 2012
7:02 pm
Schafer is out of options, and while he might end up in AAA it would involve some manipulation
Nowhere man
November 1st, 2012
7:05 pm
It is November now how about a new blog. At least one a month.
Let the herd begin. If you don’t like it go somewhere else. He is too busy to make more blogs.
Yadda yadda yadda.
Nowhere man
November 1st, 2012
7:06 pm
WTG Frank. Excite the Hot stove folks by picking up Schafer. Just say no.
nolie
November 1st, 2012
7:07 pm
and you wonder why most dislike you….
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
7:07 pm
TODD CUNNINGHAM would in all probability get consideration for seventh place anyway. And GATTIS could be in the mix in LF also.
All are much better than SCHAFER to my way of thinking. Not taking accountability for one’s acts is indicative of punkin’-head thinking pure and simple. Unfortunately, there are many athletes with physical gifts and 10-cent heads.
nolie
November 1st, 2012
7:07 pm
we were desperate for something new to talk about , Frank realized that and provided it
VaBravesFan
November 1st, 2012
7:08 pm
Disgusted
A good amount of people compared Freddie to Casey. Mainly cause they seen Freeman being a more line-drive doubles hitter like Casey was.
Casey had a good career. Just below average power for his position. Only 130 HR (3 seasons with 20 or more)
302/367/447/814 career hitter in 12 years.
Disgusted
November 1st, 2012
7:08 pm
Ooops — I made a mistake about Sean Casey in my 701 post.
He was real real good his first 2 yrs, only one good yr in 04 after that. Something happened.
Nowhere man
November 1st, 2012
7:11 pm
For asking about a new blog??
richbrave
November 1st, 2012
7:11 pm
nolie:
“……nolie
November 1st, 2012
7:02 pm
Schafer is out of options, and while he might end up in AAA it would involve some manipulation……”
So he signed a ML deal with ATLANTA? I find that hard to believe. I’m thinking a minor league deal with no ML resourse without a buy-out.
flange1
November 1st, 2012
7:12 pm
Rich,
All good here.
Any news on the grandson?
Nowhere man
November 1st, 2012
7:12 pm
Even you admit it Nolie, we need something new to talk about and a new blog would be it.
Disgusted
November 1st, 2012
7:13 pm
Va Brave — I will be happy if Freddie is a constent 22 to 28 HR guy with 32 to 37 doubles a yr.
And I look at doubles because its a more important hit than some give it credit for.
Casey was a bit better OPB guy, but I can live with a .340 to 350 OBP.
I just do not look at OPS, that is all, would rather look at doubles and HRS. And of course the still valued stat RBI, I grew up with RBIs and will die with RBI’s over slug pctg.