9:11 pm October 22, 2012, by Carroll Rogers
October 31st, 20125:40 pm
“The slow, lazy motion, the I’m better than you confidence, the 94 explosion. It’s gone forever.”
Sigh, don’t make me all teary eyed. Probably my favorite Braves pitcher for the longest time. Guy was just a pleasure to watch. I’d love to see some sort of miracle comeback and if he does I’ll be proud of him. Heck I’ll be proud of McCann and Uggla if they come back too.
October 31st, 20125:42 pm
his ERA was between 1.25 and 2.70 all the way up the line thru AAA
I don’t agree that it is exactly the same as what might be said about all pitchers
Well, I’d disagree in the way I framed it… To state a guy might have health concerns in his career is really not a stretch, especially for pitchers.
October 31st, 20125:45 pm
Right now, I vote for Bourjos and Cody Ross, Ross to platoon with Francisco. That’s the best option I see that we can afford. If Bourjos flops, we plug in someone else in CF, or move Ross to CF and plug in someone in LF.
In theory, Ross and Francisco would team up for 39 or so HRs, based on last year’s numbers for each, and based on Ross getting around 40% of the starts, against lefties. A full season is considered around 650 ABs, right? Hope I did the math right.
And, worse for the Braves, it’s happened again with Hanson.
And the team hasn’t really skipped a beat. JJ was worthless, Hanson was pretty bad, and the team just kept on winning anyways.
The pitching last year felt a lot like the year where the team had all those come-from-behind, dramatic 9th inning victories. Every time you thought that there was no way they win this game, they figured out a way to get it done.
Hopefully they can do it again next season.
October 31st, 20125:46 pm
Detroit was my first team, that was not really the sense of what many up there thought about it 10P. It was much more of a “its gonna happen” feeling I got from friends.
anyway as someone said earlier, he was dirt cheap and gave us some great years and I am grateful we got him
October 31st, 20125:47 pm
couldn’t disagree more old man
October 31st, 20125:50 pm
Actually, I’m coming up with 44 HRs between Ross and Francisco, based on 650 ABs between them. That can’t possibly be right, can it?
October 31st, 20125:53 pm
old man I’m coming up with 44 HRs between Ross and Francisco, based on 650 ABs between them. That can’t possibly be right, can it?
since its just a wild guess, why not?
October 31st, 20125:54 pm
for one thing they are not gonna sign Cody for a platoon and he wouldn’t accept it if they tried so it really doesn’t matter
October 31st, 20125:59 pm
It was much more of a “its gonna happen” feeling I got from friends.
Yeah. Reading the rumors I picked up that many believed health concerns were more immediate than a “typical” pitcher. But, well, I still think that claiming their concerns were validated due to the knee injury is a bit of a stretch, as I still don’t believe their concerns were about his knee when they were trading him. So while they may have been “validated” because he eventually broke down, despite not being in a way that anyone at the time perceived it to happen, I still hope the Braves never take such a route with their own pitchers for such a cheap return.
And perhaps they didn’t, as Hanson is still a Brave and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to learn that many GMs inquired about him in trades as he was coming up/early in his career while publicly musing about his potential “health concerns” in an effort to drive down the price.
I also don’t recall any trades in which the Braves traded a player, then turned around and stated they feel good about the deal because said player had “health concerns.”
October 31st, 20126:01 pm
Against righties in 2012, Francisco had 155 ABs and 9 HRs. Over 650 ABs (a full season) that would be a homer every 17.2 ABs, or a total of 37.8 HRs. But if he platoons, he plays against only righties, or 60% of the time, so that’s 22.67 HRs.
Against lefties in 2012, Cody Ross hit 12 HRs in 132 ABs, or one every 11.0 ABs, and over 650 ABs, that would be 59.09 HRs (!!!???). But he is only starting 40% of the time, against lefties, so that’s 23.63 HRs.
23.63 + 22.67 = 46.3 HRs from a Ross/Francisco platoon.
I know you can’t make decisions based on a bunch of stupid number games and assumptions based purely on last year’s stats, but am I doing the math halfway right? Maybe I have some of these stats wrong.
October 31st, 20126:04 pm
I’ve just never heard that about Ross not willing to platoon. He certainly mashes the crap out of lefties.
October 31st, 20126:07 pm
I attribute Minor’s overall 4.37 (or whatever ) ERA to his learning cuve and his 2.14 ERA for three months to having actually learned.
The difference which gives me hope that the lower ERAed Minor is closer to what we will see is that the reason he was getting beat up before was his lack of confidence in getting out of jams he got into and that he did better to learning he COULD get out of touble by going after hitters and then becoming confident that he COULD do it – and then did.
I see it as two entirely different approaches to pitching, the implementation of a better approach and gaining confidence in himself as a result. Again- one of those unmeasurable (except by seeing the results, thereof) intangibles.
Maybe y’all saw something different? Or maybe you hang on to preconceived notions?
October 31st, 20126:08 pm
he just refused a two year deal to better his earnings potential, he would be nuts to put himself back in a situation that would limit his future value, plus he is prolly gonna get a bigger deal than the Braves would be willing to pay a platoon player
they may sign Ross but I would bet that it will not be as a mostly platoon player
October 31st, 20126:10 pm
my preconceived notion is that he will not have an ERA in the low twos through his career no matter how much learning he did, thats for sure
October 31st, 20126:13 pm
Lew,truthfully it is not likely that Minor or Medlen will pitch as well next season as they did at end of season. They may have patches of pitching like that but they will settle into a level for the season that is more reflective of their ability. Who knows what that will be?
And as for three months being a small sample size – depends entirely on how you view small. Small as opposed to a longer career? Yes. Small when compared to MInor’s body of MLB work? Not hardly. 15 of 200 starts is a small sample – 15 of 50 starts is a pretty large sample.
October 31st, 20126:15 pm
let’s all hide and watch
October 31st, 20126:16 pm
CB – There’s a big difference in calling him a “Career 4.37 ERA pitcher” and seeing him “regress” next year to something closer to 3.20.
He’s a young pitcher who seemingly learned a lesson and got better as a result. And the numbers he put up later in the season and the way he pitched really indicate as much – unless you have alredy decided he will never be better. Say what you will, but for half of a major league season – a third of his mahjor league career – he pitched quite well and I fail to see how that’s even deniable.
October 31st, 20126:20 pm
nolie – And who said he would put up an ERA that low over his career? Certainly not me. Ive only pointed out that despite predictions to the contrary, he did for an appreciable part of his season and that this bodes well for his future and that I expect to see more of the “good” MInor in the future than the” bad” Minor some believe that will always be there..
October 31st, 20126:21 pm
I’m going to go eat dinner – feel free to feed on yourselves.
at this point he is a career 4.37 pitcher, can not get any more truthful than that.
what will happen from now on? Who knows?
I think he will settle in with an ERA in the mid threes and be what is considered a mid-rotation pitcher.
I doubt he will be a star but I doubt he stays as a 4+ ERA pitcher either
Lew, I believe most of us here and I am sure Braves mgmt. will be thrilled if he pitches a 3.20ERA next year.He did very well for sure the last few months.
October 31st, 20126:23 pm
I think he will settle in with an ERA in the mid threes and be what is considered a mid-rotation pitcher….Half
which is what I have said all along but what Lew seems to think is an unreasonable pre-conceived notion.
October 31st, 20126:24 pm
It looks like Ross signed a one year deal for 3M for 2012. In 2011, he signed a one year deal for 6.3M, probably based on his 1.076 OPS in the post season. He had an off year in ‘11, so he took a pay cut to the 3M with Boston. He is really saddled with his less than stellar RHP stats, so his price in the market may be depressed. Would he take 5M x 2 years? That’s a ton for a platoon, but he is versatile, plays a very good CF, etc.
If I felt like I would create a potential 46 HR platoon (we only pay Francisco about 480K), then 5M would be well worth it.
October 31st, 20126:25 pm
Yuck. I just tried to feed on myself. It was terrible. Maybe I picked the wrong part. Too tough and gamy for me
October 31st, 20126:26 pm
Would he take 5M x 2 years? That’s a ton for a platoon, but he is versatile, plays a very good CF, etc
I think he will get around a three year 16 mil deal , perhaps more
October 31st, 20126:28 pm
Francisco makes way too many outs, if he is playing a lot his power does no make up for that IMO
October 31st, 20126:29 pm
I see Boston is talking about 2 x 7.5M for Ross, and he wants 3 years. I’m piecing this together from a couple of things, so this may be off, but clearly 5M a year won’t cut it.
October 31st, 20126:30 pm
yes I an sure hoping that Francisco plays as little as possible, but I wouldn’t mind Ross at a reasonable rate
October 31st, 20126:31 pm
yes they will not pay that kind of money for a platoon player
October 31st, 20126:33 pm
I think 3 years for 20 million is a real possibility nolie, think your guess is probably low
October 31st, 20126:37 pm
I am probably wrong but I doubt Francisco will be with team next season.
October 31st, 20126:40 pm
may be CB, he kind of dropped off their radar the last month of the season.
Wouldn’t break my heart
October 31st, 20127:06 pm
Murph: I think we have already seen this movie or read this book…they need some original material.
Jake W. (The original)
October 31st, 20127:27 pm
Congrats to JHey on the gold glove. The Minor debate remains. I think the guy is a good pitcher and one that we obviously needed this year. He had a horrible stretch after a great start but finished very strong. Always thought it was a smart pick to get a lefty who could be ready soon, of course there
were sexier picks that could have been made but it’s not like we didn’t have any high upside pitchers in the system at the time. I don’t know if the guy will end up being a bust or an ace, consensus is a 3 I guess. Time will tell, just hope he gives us cheap and good production.
Looking forward to the off-season, finally a little money to spend. Should be interesting. Angels starting early I see.
October 31st, 20127:52 pm
I like Francisco. But if he is immune to reason, and immune to the natural maturation process, then we just need to put Prado at 3B, and move on. It’s just a shame, because I see some talent buried in the numbers he puts up.
October 31st, 20127:58 pm
BAS – If you’re still around, my comment at 6:47pm EST June 9th, 2009, first two comments after Mike Minor’s name was announced as the Braves #7 pick:
Well, at least Minor is 21(December 1987 birthday). Maybe he can get to the majors soon.
You don’t take potential mid-rotation guys at #7. Just sayin…..
Safe, signable pick for Braves. I’d bet they’ve already got a deal in place or assurance that he’ll sign. We’ll find out soon enough.
Here is the link to the blog: http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2009/06/09/medlen-and-the-15-inn-marathon/?cp=4
But you’re probably right that at some point, among the 750+ comments I made on Minor, I said once that he was not a mid-rotation starter. I guess……
October 31st, 20128:03 pm
At some point going back in the archives you need a password, I think. Maybe 2008 or earlier
October 31st, 20128:07 pm
I think much earlier, Bat. I know TenneseePaul and scoots said that it was paid to get in at some point.
October 31st, 20128:11 pm
Yeah, probably earlier. I did some google searches for things that have been brought up here that lead to blank blogs. Trying to search on AjC I was asked for the password.
October 31st, 20128:12 pm
I don’t like playing GM b/c I don’t like all the paper crap. I do like managing though because I like game strategy, practicing, teaching the game and evaluating players. So, I’ll manage but someone else would have to GM. I understand you have a little more money than usual so here is what I need regarding position players:
Sign Prado for about 3 more years. Thanks for getting Mac so we can see how he pregresses after rehab. Make sure we can keep Simmons, Freeman and Heyward.
From what we had last year sign backups Johnson, Constanza, Francisco, Pastornicky.
We need a CF, LF and 3B. One of those needs to be able to run and hit leadoff and I don’t want him striking out as much as the one this year did. In fact, try to make sure the other 2 new guys you get can put the ball in play also.
Lastly, you may want to get rid of Uggla because if he looks like the one from this past year next year, he aint playing and Prado is going to play 2nd.
If you get this we’ll win with the pitchers we have.
Oh and PS – Don’t bring Hanson back either
nolie still here? I have a question for him.
I enjoy going back and reading some of the commentary from before I started reading the blog.
October 31st, 20128:19 pm
were sexier picks that could have been made but it’s not like we didn’t have any high upside pitchers in the system at the time
Agree. And, I can see where there was probably a debate in the front office about drafting a higher risk pitcher. Fresh on their minds, however, was Hudson’s DL, Jorge Campillo, Buddy Carlyle, Jo Jo and Chuck James. That would make me extremely conservative with my pick.
I personally felt like they would have taken CF Donovan Tate had he fallen to them in the ‘09 draft.
October 31st, 2012
Think I will try that, should be interesting to see blog in early days before me.
October 31st, 20128:21 pm
2008 offseason and on was solid. 2006 and 2007 were sorta dark times. But I never really go back and read it.
October 31st, 20128:25 pm
2006 and 2007 were sorta dark times
That sounds like a good place for George to start.
October 31st, 20128:26 pm
I always doubted Tate and hoped they did not. Another great athlete who really showed no reason to believe he would ever hit at the higher levels
October 31st, 20128:28 pm
Agree. And, I can see where there was probably a debate in the front office about drafting a higher risk pitcher.
That’s a really good point, Tater. Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, Teheran, Delgado, Hanson, Medlen, etc. in the system and they probably wanted some level of certainty.
Makes the Gilmartin pick in 2011 all the more strange…..
Speaking of dark times………….. I’m sitting here in the dark eating all the Halloween candy. It never would have occurred to me to do that if phil had not brought it up today.
Sorry neighbor hood kiddies, blame phil
October 31st, 20128:30 pm
not surprising that idea came from phil, he is always such a party pooper
October 31st, 20128:31 pm
If you get this we’ll win with the pitchers we have.
Oh and PS – Don’t bring Hanson back either _ Mark
Resign now and save yourself some grief.
October 31st, 20128:34 pm
October 31st, 20128:36 pm
The new Neil Young and Crazy Horse album, “Psychedlic Pill,” is terrific. Vintage, rocking, wall-of-guitars Neil and the Horse. Double CD with several sprawling, guitar-driven tunes. Love it. Didn’t like their “Americana” covers album earlier this year. But this is nothing like that. This is like “Rust Never Sleeps”-era stuff.
Oh, and Paul Kinzer, the agent who repped Furcal when the ugly incident happened with the Braves, has reportedly left the Wasserman Group.
October 31st, 20128:37 pm
Makes the Gilmartin pick in 2011 all the more strange
Cheap Hudson insurance. Call him Geico.
October 31st, 20128:39 pm
Braves missed out on two players they wanted badly in 2009: Zack Wheeler(Giants/Mets) and 2011: Robert Stephenson(Reds). The picks right before us. More upside. Probably a bit better than Sims.
October 31st, 20128:44 pm
Is Moylan still apart of the Wasserman Group? Wasn’t that his agency?
October 31st, 20128:51 pm
yeah, guys like Tate are one of the causes of low success rates in first round picks. They are so athletic that someone often bites and yet so many fail to ever hit enough to make an impact.
October 31st, 20128:52 pm
Great Geico line Tater
October 31st, 20129:03 pm
Here’s a cut off the Neil Young CD.
October 31st, 20129:08 pm
New Orleans PF Anthony Davis has 13 points, 4 rebounds, 1 block in his first 16 minutes of his NBA career. He is 19 years old.
October 31st, 20129:12 pm
I still like the trade for the Royals – rather take a chance on Ervin Santana than to spend multi-year dollars on a mediocre pitcher. Just a one year deal.
October 31st, 20129:13 pm
Efrim – Moylan. Yes.Wasserman. I was curious how that would go, but it may be moot with Kinzer gone and Moylan, uh..less than 100%.
October 31st, 20129:18 pm
For the Royals, Santana essentially replaces the slot of free agent Jeremy Guthrie in the rotation. Other rotation candidates would include Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, prospect Jake Odorizzi, Luke Hochevar, waiver wire pickup Chris Volstad, and the rehabbing Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino. – Dave Schoenfield
Bob Dutton @Royals_Report
#Royals GM Dayton Moore says “we’re not done” after acquiring Ervin Santana from Angels.
Yeah, that’s probably a good idea.
October 31st, 20129:26 pm
Should gone conservative on those draft picks. Hee
October 31st, 20129:29 pm
Trade of a couple 2009 draft picks? Minor for Myers?
October 31st, 20129:33 pm
Boras wants four years, $60 million for Soriano?
Wonder what he thinks of Michael’s value…..
October 31st, 20129:39 pm
Woe be the team that gives Sorriano that.
Boras will probably get Bourn around 15 per for 4 or 5 years which will be way too much. He wont hit 300 and his steals and speed will start declining. One thing will increase and thats the Ks
October 31st, 20129:41 pm
I hope Neil Young will remember a souther man don’t need him around anyhow.
October 31st, 20129:42 pm
rather take a chance on Ervin Santana than to spend multi-year dollars on a mediocre pitcher. Just a one year deal….Efrim
he is a mediocre pitcher
October 31st, 20129:44 pm
Bourn might go as high as 6/96
October 31st, 20129:52 pm
But at least it’s only one year of a mediocre pitcher with some good years in his past, instead of a long term deal like they gave Gil Meche that one year.
October 31st, 20129:53 pm
It is more than laughable to suggest that the so called bad posters are bully anyone.
In fact it is the herd that do the bullying to anyone who does not agree with them.
This so called group of good posters-the herd-are the first ones to resort to name calling when they feel threatened by someone disagreeing with them.
Why have to catergorize anyone? If you agree fine if not that’s okay too.
Some on this blog think Fredi should be fired others think he is the greatest thing since sliced bread. Doesn’t make either group bad or good.
October 31st, 20129:54 pm
I could see six years and 96 million. It’s crazy how much cash is out there. Dangerous.
nolie, I think you’re close to right on Bourn’s ultimate deal. We don’t need to be part of that.
Now, can I talk to you about Bourjas . . . .
Who is going to over pay Bourn that much?
October 31st, 20129:55 pm
there are two herds, and they both bully the other. the idiot herd continues to increase with additions like you and the intelligent herd continues to decline in an attempt to avoid the melodramatic insanity
October 31st, 20129:57 pm
I read an article from the AP that said this would be McCann’s last season in a Brave uniform regardless of what type of season he has and that this was the end of the last good contract he will sign.
I beg to differ on a lot of points. I think with a good bounce back season he will sign a five or six year deal.
October 31st, 20129:59 pm
Hoorah I have forgot more about baseball than you will ever know.
I assume you consider yourself one of the good posters? Lot’s of folks differ with you.
October 31st, 201210:00 pm
6 at 96 is just too much and too long imo
I think if he bounces back with a real good healthy year that he should get another pretty good contract though perhaps not as long term as he might like, depending on if it is an AL or NL team he signs with
October 31st, 201210:04 pm
I think Mac deserves another good contract. He has been too good to give up on.
Nolie ..6/96 to high for Bourn ,he strikes out too much ,no power & he will sloow down as he ages. Maybe 5/65 and that could be high…
October 31st, 201210:06 pm
McCann will probably finish in AL possibly Yanks
The combination of Mac and Ross is great. Why not sign Ross to a three year deal and then Mac to a four or five year deal.
October 31st, 201210:08 pm
I know he didn’t play catcher but once upon a time a great mind said Frank Robinson was an old 30
Hoorah I have forgot more about baseball… — Nowhere Man
This is the first thing I’ve ever read from this poster that I can agree with.
October 31st, 201210:09 pm
Bobby H. another of the good guys with white hats.
October 31st, 201210:11 pm
Hoorah I have forgot more about baseball than you will ever know. @Nowhere
now that is the funniest thing I have read on here in months. The only thing you know is how to spell Chipper E Jones and how to lie about all the posters who are banned.
If you ever knew anything about the game itself it obviously slipped away in dementia.
A team that would reward Dan Uggla and Derek Lowe based on their past performances should have no problem extending Mac.
October 31st, 201210:12 pm
i don’t remember even one comment coming within 100 centuries of considering him the greatest thing since sliced bread. some have maintained that he is not the idiot many here make him out to be, feel he has done a decent job and are pretty sure that he is doing and will do a better job of managing MLB team than ANYONE posting comments here. no one has posted any comment crowning him a super smart manager like Maddon and no stat heads are burning midnight oil coming up with justifications for any unconventional / unexpected moves he has made, like they invariably do for Maddon.
October 31st, 201210:13 pm
I played ball in College and my granddad pitched in the Majors. Probably gives me a little more insight than you Hoorah.
yes it is much too much, but we seem to have a perfect storm this winter of plenty of available movey and needs for centerfielders. Not saying it will happen, but if it does I will not be too surprised
October 31st, 201210:17 pm
oh come on, no way you ever even got to college unless you rode in on the short bus for special classes
oh well, at least I woke a few up with that possibility
October 31st, 201210:20 pm
not sure why they wouldn’t reward Uggla for his past production which was in the top 10% of Total Runs most every year in Miami. No way was there a legitimate reason to think he would fall off so much
enough of this bullying by the good posters.
Yall be good.
October 31st, 201210:24 pm
Uggla had a good past & we needed a RH Power hitter & still do ..
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