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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
6,463 comments Add your comment
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:02 pm
Bowman is a fool and that is not the first proof
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:02 pm
I know Beltre is owed 16mil though for the next 3 seasons so it could be too big a risk financially.
He’s actually owed $16 in 2013, $17 in 2014, and $18 in 2015. There’s also a 2016 option for $16 that voids if he doesn’t reach a certain number plate appearances.
It’s certainly an interesting idea, and he would qualify as a “premium player”. The question mark is whether or not the Rangers would even entertain trading him. It could free up some money for them to sign Hamilton, but it’s just as likely that they could end up losing Beltre AND Hamilton, who are cornerstones of their offense. My guess is that it’s too much risk with too little reward for the Rangers to shop him, but stranger things have certainly happened.
Gary O.
October 24th, 2012
3:04 pm
Some of Bowman/McAlpin’s OPINIONS from the 680 the fan Braves Clubhouse report;
1) Bourn will end up with Phillies or Nats
FGon likes Prado at #2, so they will look for a leadoff hitter. One of them suggested trying Heyward at leadoff depending on who is signed for the OF (after all, Washington has Werth leading off).
2) Francisco will not be the starting 3B even if he loses the weight the Braves want him to
3) Pagan will get $50 mil+
4) Castanza is better off as a 4th OF.
5) Both think BMac’s option will be picked up. However, Bowman said the Braves may pick up his option and consider trading him if a team (like the Rangers) makes a good offer.
6) Bowman thinks they should try and dump (his word) Hanson. McAlpin agrees they should try and trade him
7) Braves would rather hold on to Teheran over Delgado
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:04 pm
my guess is that if they put Beltre on the market we could not match the offers from some other teams, there is very little on the farm that is shiny enough to be a must have prospect for other teams
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:07 pm
I think Heyward would make a great leadoff hitter. He’d also make a great #2, #3, #4, or #5 hitter. Considering that cloning research hasn’t come far enough for him to be able to bat in more than one of those spots, I’d lean toward keeping him at #3, with #2 a possibility.
I don’t think Simmons should be in one of the top 3 spots in the lineup (yet).
TheOnlyBravesFan
October 24th, 2012
3:08 pm
6) Bowman thinks they should try and dump (his word) Hanson. McAlpin agrees they should try and trade him
Hanson haters…
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:09 pm
hitting Jason first would be a tremendous waste of his skills and he didn’t even have a very good OBP last season. I don’t much care for him at second either, his talents are maximized to the highest extent hitting third
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:10 pm
nolie, Cody Ross wasn’t going to get a much more lucrative offer than what he got from the Sox, in terms of average annual value. In that case, why not sign for one year and see if you can get more down the road?
But if it’s something like McCann refusing a larger deal (at least $12M a year, which is likely what he could get if the Braves decline his option) to sign a less expensive two-year deal (with the Braves, as was suggested) in hopes that he’ll get an even bigger deal down the road, that’s ridiculous.
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:12 pm
Bowman thinks the Braves should try Heyward as a lead off hitter……
No he doesn’t, does he?
Murph
October 24th, 2012
3:12 pm
I wonder what Heyward would think about hitting leadoff?
Given that he’s just coming off a comeback season of sorts I’d leave him alone and not mess with him. He did well hitting 3rd, so I’d leave him 3rd.
ncscoots
October 24th, 2012
3:12 pm
FGon likes Prado at #2, so they will look for a leadoff hitter.
I like him at 2 my own self, but not so much that I’d hit some out-machine ahead of him, just because the out-machine is some speedy-bunting-no-lumber profile.
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:14 pm
Heyward should hit 3rd. Only way he doesn’t is if Prado hits leadoff and we bring in a scrub CF plus a player like Willingham. Then you really have no choice unless you want to hit Simmons 2nd, which I would not.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:15 pm
hitting Jason first would be a tremendous waste of his skills and he didn’t even have a very good OBP last season. I don’t much care for him at second either, his talents are maximized to the highest extent hitting third
My suggestion that he could hit 2nd was based on an assumption that Fredi doesn’t try to play “small ball” in the early innings by bunting over runners and stuff. While Heyward is a very good hitter who can drive in a lot of runs, I think he’s an even better baserunner, and is probably the best on the team. Hitting him 2nd would give him plenty of opportunities to knock in runs, but would also put him on base a lot for the 3/4/5 hitters, who would have an easier time driving him in than anyone else on the team.
I’m basically looking at the Beltran on the Cardinals model for how this would work.
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:15 pm
you could hardly tailor-make a more perfect physical specimen to hit third if you manipulated the fetus’ genes
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:17 pm
yeah I understand RC, and it ain’t the worst place by any means, but it would just make Shaun even more unbearable than he already is
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:17 pm
Basically I’m fine with any combination of Prado and Heyward at #2 and #3. In my opinion they are the Braves best two hitters, and those are the spots you want to place your best hitters.
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:17 pm
You have to love these ideas about batting order based solely on tradition without any regard to what type of batting order maximizes run scoring.
Heyward can’t lead off or hit second because he doesn’t fit in to the leadoff or #2 prototype. Which type of commenter makes players sound like robots, now?
RC, I think the Rangers realize they are better off with Beltre than with Hamilton, so I don’t think they would trade Beltre to sign Hamilton.
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:17 pm
This Rangers Profar stuff is ridiculous. The kid needs plate appearances at the major league level, period. Not 300-400 while playing some 2nd base and DH for crying out loud. Lots of movable parts in Texas, but the one thing that makes a great deal of sense is having Jurickson Profar playing every single day. Whether that is at Texas or Triple-A, I’m not sure. But he shouldn’t be on the bench to start the season. That’s crazy talk.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:18 pm
you could hardly tailor-make a more perfect physical specimen to hit third if you manipulated the fetus’ genes
You could teach it to switch hit
TheOnlyBravesFan
October 24th, 2012
3:19 pm
Bowman said that if the Braves can’t get a proven leadoff hitter, they should at least consider using Jason leadoff. It works with the Nats… He wouldn’t move Prado, and he doesn’t want Simmons up there.
I myself prefer Heyward 3-4… 3 if we get Willingham/Ross; 4 if we don’t
ncscoots
October 24th, 2012
3:19 pm
Then you really have no choice unless you want to hit Simmons 2nd, which I would not.
I’d give him a look there, what the heck. He hasn’t even been around the league once, yet, so he might get some happy juice for six weeks or so. Then, see how he adjusts.
Figure that hitting between Prado and Heyward is unlikely to hurt his chances of being successful.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:19 pm
RC, I think the Rangers realize they are better off with Beltre than with Hamilton, so I don’t think they would trade Beltre to sign Hamilton.
I agree. Hopefully that came across in my post, but judging by your comment I’m worried that it didn’t.
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:20 pm
not sure if there is a gene for that, maybe we will have found it by next time….
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:21 pm
I myself prefer Heyward 3-4… 3 if we get Willingham/Ross; 4 if we don’t
Who would be your 3 if Heyward is 4? For that matter, who’s your 1 and 2?
ncscoots
October 24th, 2012
3:21 pm
You could teach it to switch hit
That’s nurture, not nature.
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:22 pm
Constanza
Prado
Heyward
Freeman
Uggla
Francisco
Ross
Simmons
we are good to go!!!
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:22 pm
I guess when I look at it….maybe some can claim they think Bourjos will hit given his career minor league stats….
But then again, Diory Hernandez hit in the minors too guys….
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:22 pm
Everything is off of what Hamilton’s decision is, but I don’t think the Rangers will wait very long for him.
Right now, it’s a rotation of Darvish, Harrison, Holland and a mix of Perez, Ross, or Ogando for the back 2 spots. They need another starter, for sure. Catcher too. Bullpen aside from Nathan isn’t really set if they decide to move Ogando to the rotation.
Murphy, Gentry, Martin, Cruz in the outfield. A mix of Moreland, Olt, and Young at 1B and DH. Beltre, Andrus, Kinsler, Profar in the infield.
Lots of moving parts.
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:23 pm
RC, the research suggests you want your best hitters at #2 and #4. But much more important is making sure your best hitters are bunched together and high in the batting order so that they come up often and so you can string together baserunnings and decrease the chances for 1-2-3 innings, so as long as Heyward and Prado are pretty high in the order, that will be just fine.
Efrim, Andrus should be traded and I think he will. But maybe the Rangers are that crazy.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:23 pm
Nolie-
Really hope thats your early afternoon joke of the day
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:23 pm
that research is NOT proof Shaun
Murph
October 24th, 2012
3:25 pm
Constanza
Prado
Heyward
Freeman
Uggla
Francisco
Ross
Simmons
That’s not funny… because I can see it happening.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:25 pm
Efrim-
So what you’re saying is that we match up well w/ Texas on a deal if one could be made
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:25 pm
Andrelton Simmons probably shouldn’t be near the top of a big league lineup right now.
ncscoots
October 24th, 2012
3:25 pm
we are good to go!!!
That’s a lineup that would have me wondering if I could still get a pitching tryout. I’m only 61, you know.
Sandy Koufax’s arthritic elbow could carve up that group.
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:25 pm
If Andrelton Simmons hits well enough, we need to send Tony DeMacio and the Braves scouts, player development folk some sort of gift backet, because that kid is going to be a WAR All-Star.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:26 pm
And stats prove that the Braves worst hitters in 2012 hit 3-5….
Now I didn’t think Heyward and Freeman were THAT bad, BUT the stats showed the worst production coming from the 3 hole
Murph
October 24th, 2012
3:27 pm
FYI, if you haven’t picked it up yet, OOTP (Out of the Park Baseball) is 50% right now.
http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/out-of-the-park-baseball/index.php
Joe Simpson
October 24th, 2012
3:27 pm
I know I was wrong about Uggla last season, but as soon as Spring training starts Uggla will go on a tear.
You watch.
flange1
October 24th, 2012
3:27 pm
Unfortunately, this discussion is going to pave the way for 78 posts from Shaun about The Book and proper “thought” out line up construction.
But I like Prado at 2 and Heyward at 3 too.
I could also be happy with Prado leading off and Heyward at 2. We then need a 3 hole hitter that is not LH.
I would rather spend money on a 3-4 hitter than a lead off guy. We need a RH hitter to split Heyward and Freeman, and Uggs ain’t the guy.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:27 pm
RC, the research suggests you want your best hitters at #2 and #4. But much more important is making sure your best hitters are bunched together and high in the batting order so that they come up often and so you can string together baserunnings and decrease the chances for 1-2-3 innings, so as long as Heyward and Prado are pretty high in the order, that will be just fine.
Exactly. That’s why I’d play some combo of Heyward/Prado at 2 and 3, with Freeman behind them. Freeman’s got plenty of bat, but his baserunning is not a positive. Better to have him as the last guy in my “bunch”, since the other two are excellent baserunners that can score from 2nd on a single, 1st on a double, and move up in other situations. I kind of like Heyward then Prado to go L/R/L, and for Heyward’s superior baserunning, but I like Prado then Heyward due to the fact that Heyward hits with a bit more power, and Prado much less likely to K than Heyward (which, with a decent leadoff man, could mean quite a bit).
Either way leads to a pretty good setup atop the order.
Joe Simpson
October 24th, 2012
3:28 pm
Enter your comments here
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:29 pm
So what you’re saying is that we match up well w/ Texas on a deal if one could be made
No. Just speaking out loud a bit on the Rangers. It’s a big offseason for them. They need a lot of restructuring.
TheOnlyBravesFan
October 24th, 2012
3:29 pm
Well, if we don’t get Willingham/Ross, I’m assuming the final lineup spot is an aging vet or Francisco at 3rd (Prado in LF)
CF (Span, Victorino, Jay, whoever)
Prado
Freeman
Heyward
Uggla
Mac
Simmons
Francisco/Vet
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:30 pm
that research is NOT proof Shaun
Nope. It’s just that the research suggests you want you best hitters hitting second or fourth.
But I suppose this is another thing that is part of some grand conspiracy. Folks don’t or weren’t trying to get at the most optimal lineup construction. They were actually just trying to advance some nefarious idea about the best hitters hitting second and fourth, because everyone knows folks have so much to gain by advancing this idea over any other. There is no possible way that this is actually what the research suggests. It’s all actually some deep, dark, evil conspiracy. To what end, we have no clue.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:30 pm
And stats prove that the Braves worst hitters in 2012 hit 3-5….
Now I didn’t think Heyward and Freeman were THAT bad, BUT the stats showed the worst production coming from the 3 hole
Which stats were those? I’m genuinely curious, not trying to pick a fight. Just wondering what you are using to define 3-5 as the Braves “worst hitters”.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:30 pm
RC-
Prado/Heyward/Kinsler ?
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:31 pm
RC-
Would have to look them up again but it was something I was really surprised about that I found on BRef
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:31 pm
The Rays and Rangers match up for a Elvis Andrus/James Shields trade. Not sure of all the parts, but those two as the start of it makes some sense. Even if Hak Ju-Lee is ready by mid-season, he can play some 2nd base – he can do that as he isn’t the prospect Profar is. I think Zobrist fits best in a corner outfield spot anyway.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:32 pm
RC-
Got it:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=ATL&year=2012
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:34 pm
In fact, 2nd (obvious) and 6th (not so obvious) were the most productive….
6th I am gathering because of Heyward and Freeman before they were moved up the lineup and then proceeded to struggle
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:34 pm
Nationals prospect left-hander Matthew Purke had shoulder surgery in August.
Well, I’m glad we went with Mike Minor over Matt Purke or Tyler Matzek. Jury is still out on Shelby Miller and Zach Wheeler though. I’m still betting on those two being frontline starters.
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:35 pm
And stats prove that the Braves worst hitters in 2012 hit 3-5….
Now I didn’t think Heyward and Freeman were THAT bad, BUT the stats showed the worst production coming from the 3 hole
The most common batting order had Heyward, Jones, Freeman 3-4-5.
Among qualifiers, Heyward had the 2nd-best OPS+ on the team, Jones had the best OPS+ and Freeman had the 4th-best.
Frank Wren
October 24th, 2012
3:36 pm
JS wants to see the offense score more so I think I’ll hire Ozzie Guillen and make him the third hitting coach.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:36 pm
RC-
Prado/Heyward/Kinsler ?
Hmm….not sure where I’d fit Kinsler in as part of the Braves lineup. Until last year, he actually has had a decent OBP, and I likely would have slotted him leadoff, followed by Prado, then Heyward, then Freeman. Assuming the team added him AND a leadoff hitter, I think going Prado, Heyward, Kinsler, Freeman in slots 2-5 would make a lot of sense.
There is one major question though:
What did you do with Uggla? I’m assuming he’d be in LF, but it seems like for the resources spent to get Kinsler you could get a better hitting player who just happens to play LF, and improve the team more by spending less.
flange1
October 24th, 2012
3:37 pm
Just because folks take time to do research does not mean that the research has any value.
No conspiracy there.
ncscoots
October 24th, 2012
3:38 pm
What did you do with Uggla? I’m assuming he’d be in LF,
Your entire premise just got nuked, then. And they dialed up the yield to maximum, before launch.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:38 pm
RC-
Only thing there is, Kinsler has never batted cleanup and I worry about his numbers just a bit away from that park….
But I think I did good at least pulling an outside the box name no one had thought of as of yet
cricket
October 24th, 2012
3:40 pm
Man that pirates stuff is insane. off course there are bloggers here who would not think twice before wanting to put Mac through that insanity..
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:40 pm
RC-
No no no….
Kinsler would be at 3b and Prado would stay in LF
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:40 pm
And stats prove that the Braves worst hitters in 2012 hit 3-5….
Okay, I get it. What you mean are the Braves’ worst production came from the 3-5 spots, not that there worst hitters hit in those spots. Pretty important distinction there.
But even that’s not exactly true. The number four spot in the order had the 2nd-best OPS of all the batting order positions. The number five spot had the 4th-best OPS.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:41 pm
P-Town Brave,
It is surprising how bad the 3-hole was last year. It looks like 2, 4, 5, and 6 were all pretty comparable in production. As for who contributed to the 3 spot being bad, it appears that Heyward was by far the best of the player who hit there, getting roughly half the ABs, and the bad stats were mostly attributable to Freeman and McCann, with 9 games worth of bad numbers chipped in by Chipper. My guess is that a lot of those stats were accumulated while Freeman was battling his eye issues, but Fredi hadn’t yet moved him down the lineup.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:42 pm
Kinsler has played 2 innings of 3b in his MLB career….you sure that’s the best option defensively??
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:43 pm
Man that pirates stuff is insane. off course there are bloggers here who would not think twice before wanting to put Mac through that insanity..
Speaking of insanity, wasn’t that the name of the workout that Moylan did the offseason prior to his most recent injury?
Lew
October 24th, 2012
3:44 pm
Shaun – Research or no research, it would all depend on each team’s personnel, their strengths, weaknesses and team needs that determine where in the order they hit. One size fits all rarely does.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:45 pm
flange-
Im not saying it has much value other than to say over the course of the ENTIRE 2012 season, our middle slots were awful
.232 .299 .410 .709
.246 .353 .426 .778
.256 .343 .422 .764
3-6 as a whole was here: .252 .334 .430 .765
That is just nowhere near good enough to be a top squad….
Oh and FWIW, the team that beat us in the WC game….their 3-6 were here…
.287 .357 .477 .834
abeeeewright
October 24th, 2012
3:46 pm
“What did you do with Uggla?”
Hit him lead off? There’s a hole there, don’t you know.
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:48 pm
Just because folks take time to do research does not mean that the research has any value.
flange1, true. The research has value because it is sound and valid. But don’t take my word for it. You can check it out for yourself.
Also, it seems pretty arrogant to assume it has no value and discard it simply because it goes against your assumptions.
I’m not necessarily saying you are doing this. But some seem to be discarding it for this reason. For example, the research concludes the best hitter should hit second instead of third. So some seem to discard it without any regard to the methodology or how the researchers arrived at that conclusion, and whether the research was done soundly and validly.
Also, if the research wasn’t a serious and honest attempt to arrive at something valuable (namely, how to construct a batting order), what would be the point, besides some sort of conspiracy? Or are folks just criticizing because the research doesn’t fit their assumptions?
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:49 pm
Shaun – Research or no research, it would all depend on each team’s personnel, their strengths, weaknesses and team needs that determine where in the order they hit. One size fits all rarely does.
No doubt. But I think the research that’s been done DOES illuminate the things that are most important at the various lineup slots, some of which run counter to the conventional thinking that has been around baseball for so long. One of the things that the research demonstrates is that the #2 spot isn’t best served by a guy who’s only skills are “handles the bat well” and “doesn’t strike out”. On average, that lineup spot sees more run-producing opportunities (RBI chances) than even the #3 spot, so it’s spot where managers should try to put one of their better hitters, not just a guy who’s good at bunting or hitting the other way.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:50 pm
RC-
My thought is this….Kinsler played instructional there and has gotten enough time and I just think he projects well there in the future….
Now I’m not saying you won’t have some growing pains….but Chipper hasnt exactly been the spring chicken there for the past few years…
And lets face it, we could REALLY use the bat in the lineup….
I think if you could add a Kinsler and go after the so called CF/leadoff man, we would have a pretty solid team in place for a run in 2013…
Honestly I question the contract more than I do his ability to play 3b.
abeeeewright
October 24th, 2012
3:50 pm
What is “best” hitter?
Wouldn’t you rather high SLG to be in the middle of the order and high OBP to be at the top of the order?
Where does the L-R-L-R-L-R-L-R-P thing fit into the optimal construction of line-ups?
When should you bunt? Steal a base?
Do you want your “clutch” hitter to come up in the bottom of the ninth in the 7th game of the World Series with the tying and go-ahead runs on 2nd and 3rd with two outs? Or does it really matter?
Efrim
October 24th, 2012
3:51 pm
On whether 2013 will be McCann’s last year in Atlanta….
Mark Bowman @mlbbowman
@BeltoWNC I’ve been singing this tune since January. If anything, there is even more reason to believe ‘13 will be his last in ATL
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:51 pm
Uggla has hit second a good bit. could be Prado, Uggla, Hey,Free
McFann :Ô: :Ô: :ô:
October 24th, 2012
3:52 pm
Gary O. Bowman said the Braves may pick up [BMac's] option and consider trading him if a team (like the Rangers) makes a good offer.
Still…that is the stupidest (baseball) idea I ever heard!…
I mean seriously, what is WITH Bowman and his thing with BMac?? Lord…
abeeeewright
October 24th, 2012
3:52 pm
What logic could possibly have made it reasonable to hit Alex Gonzalez second for any length of time?
I agree with the POV, hit your best hitters as soon as you can and don’t waste any spot in the first five with a weak sister.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:53 pm
Cricket-
You do realize Mac was pretty much doing that himself by deciding to play in his version of The Fugitive starring Brian McCann as the One Armed Man right?
Lew
October 24th, 2012
3:54 pm
RC – Sounds like our number two hitter, actually.
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:54 pm
Smilin’ Frank is a cold hard man, anything could happen
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
3:54 pm
Lew, no one is saying the research points to a one-size-fits-all approach. But it does suggests that the prototypical lineup may not be the best. That’s the thing.
Sure, there can be a variety of truly optimal batting orders. It’s not one-size-fits-all. But the research suggests that one of those optimal lineups, for example, shouldn’t include one of your weakest hitters hitting second simply because he can bunt and make contact, etc.
There are still good and bad lineups, even if there isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:54 pm
Hmm….I don’t think I heard that from Bowman….but lots of us believe its 2013 and gone for Mac….
Just is what it is….the real question is…..when do you start shopping for your new blog home McFanny
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:56 pm
abe-
I dunno but L/R/L/R/L/R sure as hell pisses everyone off when we do it playing ball
abeeeewright
October 24th, 2012
3:56 pm
Uggla did get his walks in. Cut down on the strike-outs, work on the bunting a little, that dude could be a prototypical 2-hole hitter.
Play a little small ball, make productive outs, bunt the runner over, …
New campaign theme … Uggla in the 2-hole!
ncscoots
October 24th, 2012
3:56 pm
Smilin’ Frank is a cold hard man, anything could happen
The hair gives him away. Pretty sure it turned white when he sold his soul to The Devil and embarked on a life of Evil.
RC
October 24th, 2012
3:56 pm
And now that I’ve defended Shaun’s research, I will say that there are some shortcomings. Like any statistical analysis, it can’t accurately account for the mental aspects of the game, and how they affect the players. Case in point:
When Mark Teixeria was on the Braves, Chipper Jones noted that with Tex hitting 4th he was seeing more fastballs than he’d ever seen in his career. This is something that could be researched and either confirmed or busted, but I have not done that nor do I have the time to do it. There is research that shows no impact of “lineup protection” on a major league hitter. One thing that sticks out to me though, is that whether or not Chipper actually saw more fastballs or not, the mere fact that he THOUGHT there was some “protection” affect have affected his production. Maybe because he expected more pitches in the zone he was going to the plate looking to hit earlier in the count instead of waiting back. Maybe it caused him to be MORE patient, because in his mind he thought they couldn’t afford to walk him. Whatever the case, there had to be some affect of that lineup construction that can’t be accounted for statistically, both on the hitters in it and on the pitchers facing it.
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:56 pm
that is just another strawman because nobody is suggesting hitting a player who can only handle the bat well and not K a lot in the second slot, we have all said that OBP skills are important there. Prado is a combination of old and new and about as good as it gets at second when healthy
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:57 pm
Lew-
Check out my FB here in the next few days….
planning on finally getting around to posting some of my pics from the ATL trip….
You’ll probably appreciate the one I got w/ Frank….really genuinely nice guy and even stopped and chatted it up w/ us for a little bit
nolie
October 24th, 2012
3:58 pm
when do you start shopping for your new blog home McFanny T-Town
c’mon man , that was mean and uncalled for
abeeeewright
October 24th, 2012
3:58 pm
Unless McCann’s shoulder is permanently methusaleh’d, I suspect he’ll be back with the Braves after 2013. Otherwise, he’s prolly retired (sad face).
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
3:58 pm
Given all the players and coaches Ive met over the last few years, its gotten much harder to throw anyone under the bus….
Used to not always be the case, but the Braves have some really good dudes
flange1
October 24th, 2012
3:59 pm
P’town,
I was not disparaging your research at all, I think you have a valid point.
Shaun,
I was pulling your chain a bit.
Not so much on lineup construction, but more on the lines of “I have research to back up my point so thus, I am correct,” or more to the point, “I have provided research to back up my point and you have not so I win.”
abeeeewright
October 24th, 2012
4:00 pm
“You’ll probably appreciate the one I got w/ Frank….really genuinely nice guy and even stopped and chatted it up w/ us for a little bit”
I heard he’d even trade you his hot dog for your hamburger if the fixin’s were right.
Shaun
October 24th, 2012
4:00 pm
The biggest anti-conventional, data-driven move a manager these days can make is to actually hit one of their better hitters second in the batting order. If we could just start there, baseball would be slightly more entertaining because, if managers did this, we would see them maximizing their resources.
It’s very nice that the Braves have a hitter like Prado, and plenty of other good options to hit second, so that we don’t have to worry too much about them doing what many other managers do.
RC
October 24th, 2012
4:00 pm
RC – Sounds like our number two hitter, actually.
Well, I’m not saying they are bad skills by themselves, just that they can’t be the ONLY skills a player has. Prado is a really good hitter, who happens to not strike out much and be able to handle the bat well. The key to him being good in the #2 spot is that he’s a good hitter, not the 2nd and 3rd parts of that statement. A guy who isn’t a good hitter but doesn’t strike out very much is not a very good #2 hitter. That guy is someone like Ryan Theriot. Sure he doesn’t strike out, but he doesn’t really do anything EXCEPT not strikeout. He is not a guy I’d want sniffing the top half of a major league lineup (or any half of the lineup, honestly).
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
4:00 pm
RC-
There is some truth to it….especially when the opposition perceives the next guy as a greater threat or when you have someone who is a threat on the basepaths…
Just ask anyone who has had the pleasure to hit behind Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins
ncscoots
October 24th, 2012
4:01 pm
Whatever the case, there had to be some affect of that lineup construction that can’t be accounted for statistically, both on the hitters in it and on the pitchers facing it.
The synergistic effect. We’ve spoken of that before.
In fact, because any semi-reasonable lineup produces so little offensive change from any other semi-reasonable lineup (over time), it makes more sense to cling to the traditional profiles for each slot just in case there is a non-measureable synergistic effect to be had by doing so.
nolie
October 24th, 2012
4:03 pm
I don’t think that hitting after stuff is as big as it was b4 the shufflestep delivery. plenty of offspeed thrown now no matter who is on
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
4:03 pm
RC-
So what you’re saying is a guy who has been mentioned on here quite a bit and the bane of the Braves…
David Eckstein
RC
October 24th, 2012
4:05 pm
P-Town Brave,
I agree. My point was that when “running the numbers”, that may not show up. It could be that variables are left out, or that there are unquantifiable variables at play (how do you judge how “concerned” a pitcher is with a runner?).
I can’t remember the theory, but there is some scientific thing that states than in observing an action, the act of you observing has fundamentally changed the action being observed. To me that same principle applies to trying to figure out the effects of “lineup protection” or pitchers worrying about the baserunner.
TheOnlyBravesFan
October 24th, 2012
4:05 pm
Smilin’ Frank is a cold hard man, anything could happen
Definitely. RE McCann, I don’t think he would trade him, but if he can get some monster return on him (though I can’t see that happening, he’s hurt… huge gamble), Frank may consider. He’d trade Medlen if he could get Kemp. I mean seriously… almost no one on the team is untouchable. It’s just harder to grab some players than others.
P-Town Brave ©
October 24th, 2012
4:05 pm
Scoots-
Isn’t it also so that in case you are a manager you don’t get questioned as much or in lamens, get sh*tcanned if a crazy lineup doesn’t work?