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6,746 comments Add your comment
Tumbledown
October 11th, 2012
2:15 pm
I am no statistical guru. I also have had absolutely zero experience as a baseball player. I did play competitively in an individual sport (tennis) at a fairly high level but recognize that a team sport like baseball is a different animal. I will say that as the stakes became higher, either in the later rounds of a tennis tournament or in setting like the NCAA team Nationals, I experienced a different feeling. Everything was different. The pressure higher, the opponent more focused, and the ultimate result often diffferent than if the match had been played in a local community court.
I can only imagine how everything is exponentially magnified in the MLB baseball playoffs. A look at the raw stats tells much of the story, especially in how particular teams reach the playoffs. But, it seems to me that there are intangibles at work duringthe playoffs which make it necessary to go beyond the stats. You look at the stats for the 1988 World Series and see that Kirk Gibson had one home run and a couple of RBIs. Not that impressive. We can find numerous examples of this output in World Series play. Yet, his home run in Game One was the singular inspiration for the Dodgers win that year over the A’s.
The playoff atmosphere is different, and the players perfomances will deviate from their normal regular season performance depending on how they cope with the pressure and stress. It seems to be too simplistic to fall back on concepts of randomness, coincidence, or small sample size to justify a rigid reliance on raw stats. Baseball, like all sports, is played by humans on the field and not in the computer.
I am sure others have made similar points and apologize for rehashing old issues. But, Shaun, just as you make me want to take a closer look at the stat sheet, I hope at least you can better understand the human element of the game beyond the stat sheet. People who have played baseball probably can better articulate the intangibles of the game.
P Rose
October 11th, 2012
2:17 pm
I agree Prado should start every day at third, but then what will they do with Juan Francisco? Is he signed through 2013, and if so, is he a bench player or can he play another position?
RC
October 11th, 2012
2:17 pm
Absolutely arrogant and pompous to sell “championship” merchandise before the championship is actually won.
I agree with that. However, it’s unclear to me how much the Nationals organization was involved in that decision. They obviously have the stuff printed out ahead of time, because with the way e-commerce works nowadays people want to by the championship shirt within MINUTES of the championship actually happening. The reports I read were that ONE store in the DC area was selling the shirts ahead of time….it’s entirely possible that they ignored the instructions to hold by sales until the division was one. It’s even POSSIBLE that they had two boxes, one of “Champions” and one of “Playoffs” (like the Braves shirts), and they opened the wrong box. Taking it another step, it’s actually PROBABLY that the Nationals had nothing to do with the shirts….it was MLBs “Playoff” design. You noticed how every team’s shirts looked the same (like a HS state championship shirt)? That’s cause MLB was running the show…I’m willing to give the Nationals the benefit of the doubt and blame is on Selig and his stooges.
Murph
October 11th, 2012
2:18 pm
People who have played baseball probably can better articulate the intangibles of the game.
If it can’t be quantified as a part of wOBA, it doesn’t matter.
Frankie
October 11th, 2012
2:19 pm
“The Braves seem committed to keeping Prado at #2. Considering that he’s “arguably been the Braves best hitter the past 2 years, I think that’s a pretty logical place for him. Given the players that the Braves will be looking at, I think it’s fair to say that Pagan will have a positive “impact” compared to the other alternatives.”
I’m not I totally agee with this. Prado IMO is your prototype 2 hitter, I agree. Still on this team he may be more beneficial batting lower. The guy can be a Double machine when he changes his approach and drives the ball. Chipper should have been in the 2 slot and Martin batting 5th could have driven in more runs and make our offense more dynamic. Prado could bat everywhere 3-5 and offense might would benefit possibly more.
Frankie
October 11th, 2012
2:19 pm
“The Braves seem committed to keeping Prado at #2. Considering that he’s “arguably been the Braves best hitter the past 2 years, I think that’s a pretty logical place for him. Given the players that the Braves will be looking at, I think it’s fair to say that Pagan will have a positive “impact” compared to the other alternatives.”
I’m not I totally agee with this. Prado IMO is your prototype 2 hitter, I agree. Still on this team he may be more beneficial batting lower. The guy can be a Double machine when he changes his approach and drives the ball. Chipper should have been in the 2 slot and Martin batting 5th could have driven in more runs and make our offense more dynamic. Prado could bat everywhere 3-5 and offense might would benefit possibly more.
Frankie
October 11th, 2012
2:19 pm
“The Braves seem committed to keeping Prado at #2. Considering that he’s “arguably been the Braves best hitter the past 2 years, I think that’s a pretty logical place for him. Given the players that the Braves will be looking at, I think it’s fair to say that Pagan will have a positive “impact” compared to the other alternatives.”
I’m not I totally agee with this. Prado IMO is your prototype 2 hitter, I agree. Still on this team he may be more beneficial batting lower. The guy can be a Double machine when he changes his approach and drives the ball. Chipper should have been in the 2 slot and Martin batting 5th could have driven in more runs and make our offense more dynamic. Prado could bat everywhere 3-5 and offense might would benefit possibly more.
N8
October 11th, 2012
2:19 pm
You’re beating a dead horse tumbledown. Shaun is a robot with no emotion and assumes ALL mlb players are the same way. None feel pressure. Nobody handles it better or worse than others.
Otherwise, to us reasonable HUMAN BEINGS who grasp emotion and the human element….. it was a great post.
Frankie
October 11th, 2012
2:20 pm
wow triple play on the blog
ncscoots
October 11th, 2012
2:20 pm
I’m willing to give the Nationals the benefit of the doubt and blame is on Selig and his stooges.
On this one thing, I’m with N8. Not because it’s the logical point of view, I just enjoy having a reason to dislike the Nats.
RC
October 11th, 2012
2:20 pm
I agree Prado should start every day at third, but then what will they do with Juan Francisco? Is he signed through 2013, and if so, is he a bench player or can he play another position?
Francisco has just over 1 year of MLB service. The Braves control his rights next year and he will cost the league minimum for 2 more years, then have 3 years of arbitration.
Francisco has played LF in the past, but he’s not very good at it. He’s likely backup 3b/pinch hitter for the Braves next year. Considering the possibility that Prado can “backup” other positions, it could be that Francisco is the LF and 2b “backup”, with Prado shifting to those positions while Francisco takes 3b.
Shaun
October 11th, 2012
2:22 pm
Shaun, I get what you’re saying….I really do….but do you think that if the Braves added say Adam Dunn and Mark Reynolds they’d be a much better team?
If they added Dunn or Reynolds to play left or third, and acquired a solid centerfielder, like a Pagan, factor in the likelihood that McCann will bounce back and that Uggla will bounce back some, I don’t know that they would be much different than last year’s team, as far as position players are concerned. They’d probably be a little worse defensively, maybe a little better offensively (again, assuming McCann bounces back).
Just asking what if they added Dunn or Reynolds isn’t really enough information to determine if they would be better. Whether they’d be better depends on other factors and it depends on what you mean by better. Better than what?
I don’t think they would be drastically better than last season because I don’t think Dunn and Reynolds add that much more value than Chipper did last year. I think if for some reason they were to add Dunn or Reynolds to essentially replace Chipper, they would be about the same, maybe a little better. But, again, a lot of that improvement will probably come from McCann bouncing back.
Frankie
October 11th, 2012
2:24 pm
“People who have played baseball probably can better articulate the intangibles of the game.”
Exactly. Doesn’t mean they know more about the game as a whole, but comprehend certain aspects about the game others don’t. Sorry the truth for you Shaunheads.
Miles
October 11th, 2012
2:25 pm
DOB, any chance the Braves look at moving Uggla and paying half his salary?
TennesseePaul
October 11th, 2012
2:25 pm
Giants with the lead.
N8
October 11th, 2012
2:26 pm
“On this one thing, I’m with N8. Not because it’s the logical point of view, I just enjoy having a reason to dislike the Nats”
LOL. Thanks.
Meanwhile, Gregor Blanco starts the rally and uses his legs to score…… and the Reds start to fall apart at the seams.
BravePack(FreeFan)
October 11th, 2012
2:27 pm
I’m not here to argue with DOB, in fact I usually agree with most of what he writes but I am 99% sure that Josh Willingham will not be a Brave next season. We’ve all seen how Wren goes about his business and that is not trading away top pitching prospects in the early 20’s for a player who will be 35 years old and is injury prone coming off a career year. A Pagan signing where nothing is lost I can see as a last resort to take over CF if he doesn’t find anything better through trade.
One thing I do know is the trades and signings that do happen aren’t ones that DOB or any of us throw out there, in fact it’s usually the opposite.
Larry30
October 11th, 2012
2:27 pm
$12 million for a catcher who has never been very good defensively, who consistently loses steam as the year goes on and who was almost invisible offensively the past season and a half? But Wren will pay it because he consistently over pays. I’m tired of the sentimental hogwash: “pick up the option because of all he’s done for the franchise.” He was hired to do a job and has been handsomely paid for it. The best case scenario on McCann if we do pick up the option is that he gets off to a strong start and we trade him to an AL team. I like the idea of Pagan. I don’t know what the fascination is with upton. It would be like having another uggla in the lineup. Take chippers 12 mil, mccanns 12 mil and sign someone who can really play the game.
Efrim
October 11th, 2012
2:27 pm
Ugh. Won’t be able to watch a Cards/Giants NLCS. Friggin hate both of those teams.
ncscoots
October 11th, 2012
2:27 pm
He’s likely backup 3b/pinch hitter for the Braves next year.
Francisco seems too limited defensively to be a good choice for the bench, to me. They’re going to carry a backup catcher and a backup middle infielder, for sure. If Johnson is the 4th OF, that only leaves two spots, with somebody to backup 1B yet to be found. Braves have always liked to carry a couple of guys who can play around the IF, but Francisco hardly meets that criteria.
I don’t see that having him on the bench really gives the team enough flexibility with their role players.
Efrim
October 11th, 2012
2:28 pm
Travis H. (Des Moines, IA)
If your the Braves, what do you do with Tommy Hanson?
Klaw (1:58 PM)
I’m afraid he’s just not going to be healthy again.
cricket
October 11th, 2012
2:28 pm
I’m still pissy bout the NL East championship shirts being available to purchase a week before the season was over (I believe there was 8 games left and a 4 game lead).
seriously? those shirts were available at Kohl’s, by mistake. it is standard practice to print those kinds of shirts, jerseys, hatc etc. before the results of a sporting event are available. one set is sold in US based on results and everything else is sent out to poor countries to be sold for what that stuff is actually worth.
this is very misplaced hatred.
Trader Jack
October 11th, 2012
2:31 pm
The Reds have never won a playoff game in that stadium
TennesseePaul
October 11th, 2012
2:31 pm
Travis H. (Des Moines, IA)
If your the Braves, what do you do with Tommy Hanson?
Klaw (1:58 PM)
Because I hate the Braves, I’ll assist in ruining his trade value… I’m afraid he’s just not going to be healthy again.
Shaun
October 11th, 2012
2:31 pm
Murph, how about just “preach” whatever information best reflects reality? I feel that’s the best way to go. The problem is when people start taking their own assumptions for granted and they don’t do their best to examine the information out there that best reflects reality. Someone brings up some information that doesn’t jive with their assumptions and they get defensive, blaming the information or blaming the person who brought up the information, refusing to acknowledge that maybe it’s their assumptions that need to be re-thought.
ncscoots
October 11th, 2012
2:31 pm
this is very misplaced hatred.
Hey, some maroons here got Willingham, me and N8 got t-shirts.
Hate is where you find it.
Posts about The Braves From Other Great Blogs issue #1 | Atlanta Braves Dugout Online | Atlanta Braves Blog
October 11th, 2012
2:32 pm
[...] or any of the other bitter pangs in and outside of baseball the passing seasons more… Braves have 2 big needs, and the means to fill them – blogs.ajc.com 10/10/2012 Their postseason lasted just one day, and the Braves enter the [...]
Efrim
October 11th, 2012
2:33 pm
Homer Bailey said the other night that this was the first time his shoulder has been healthy in 3 years. Had a great performance.
Shoulders for pitchers are just so different. That normal “wear and tear” Andrews described could of been a rotator cuff tear that hasn’t healed and is costing Hanson velocity and command.
FEATURED BRAVES POST: Braves have 2 big needs, and the means to fill them | Atlanta Braves Dugout Online | Atlanta Braves Blog
October 11th, 2012
2:33 pm
[...] The rest of the article can be found here: Atlanta Braves [...]
Fredo
October 11th, 2012
2:33 pm
“In the history of the wild-card era, which dates back to the 1995 season, only four teams have come back from down 2-0 in the Division Series”
and today we might see 2 teams come back from being down 2-0 to win. We’ll see at least 1, the Reds are screwed
Efrim
October 11th, 2012
2:33 pm
Because I hate the Braves, I’ll assist in ruining his trade value… I’m afraid he’s just not going to be healthy again.
Hah! Sigh…..
Trader Jack
October 11th, 2012
2:34 pm
Posey with the slam – awfully quiet in Cincy
TennesseePaul
October 11th, 2012
2:34 pm
Buster busts it open… Giants lead 6-0
Efrim
October 11th, 2012
2:35 pm
And Buster Posey delivers teh Giants to the NLCS.
It’s only been 3 years, but I’m fairly tired of the Giants and Cardinals winning every big ballgame in this league. Really tired of it.
TennesseePaul
October 11th, 2012
2:35 pm
Kind of fitting that the last two WS winners are shaping up for an NLCS showdown…
TennesseePaul
October 11th, 2012
2:37 pm
I still favor the NL in the WS.
cricket
October 11th, 2012
2:38 pm
Hate is where you find it.
i’m all set in that department, i hate everyone
ncscoots
October 11th, 2012
2:38 pm
Kind of fitting that the last two WS winners are shaping up for an NLCS showdown…
I’m OK with that. I got zero invested here, LOL.
Murph
October 11th, 2012
2:38 pm
Shaun, I’m not sure why you’re attacking me when I’m on your side.
If the wOBA does not fit, you must a quit… um… talking about signing that player. Or something.
wOBA supports my belief that Pagan would be a better signing than Bourn, so I’m gonna shout it from the mountain tops.
Frankie
October 11th, 2012
2:39 pm
Yep, two teams that are well coached and strong in all facets. Giants-Cards belong where they are.
ncscoots
October 11th, 2012
2:39 pm
i’m all set in that department
Atta-baby, LOL.
TheOnlyBravesFan
October 11th, 2012
2:40 pm
Travis H. (Des Moines, IA)
If your the Braves, what do you do with Tommy Hanson?
Klaw (1:58 PM)
I’m afraid he’s just not going to be healthy again.
Better him than me saying that. I’m not the Hanson hater!
Murph
October 11th, 2012
2:41 pm
I’d love to see an A’s/Giants WS with the A’s winning it all in dramatic fashion. I might actually watch some of those games.
DS1
October 11th, 2012
2:42 pm
Great read DOB. Agree with a lot of what you’re saying.
A couple of thoughts:
Juan Francisco needs to go somewhere that he can play a fairly regular third base. Give him a chance to refine his game if possible. But he really doesn’t fit well here.
Chad Durbin is an “every other year” pitcher. Take a pass on him for 2013, it’ll be another down year.
If we can’t get the Twinkies to deal Willingham, my next two choices would be Headley or Upton. Headley would cost a ton, as would Upton. Upton is owed a lot of dough. I’ve scoured the team rosters and I really am not seeing another RH LF’er or thirdbaseman who fills the bill, and would be obtainable. Unless you go VERY young with a prospect. Not seeing that happen.
I’m OK with Pagan for CF. Victorino would be a good alternative, but I wouldn’t pay him too much or for too long. How about Gentry in Texas? Bourjos? Span? (wouldn’t seem Minn dealing both Willingham and Span) and my personal underdog, Gutierrez. (if only for the nickname)
Those wanting to dump Hanson are not being realistic. He stays unless he is packaged in a deal somewhere. He won’t be given away, nor should he.
Kentavo
October 11th, 2012
2:42 pm
I’d take a flyer on Torii Hunter for LF if Angels cut him loose; and echoing many sentiments, see if we can dump Uggla, move Prado back to 2B and sign Youkilis or Rolen to a short-term deal for 3B.
Scott Hairston would also be a good fit for at least a platoon – he mashes lefties.
Shaun
October 11th, 2012
2:43 pm
Tumbledown, I think that’s pretty much right, that there is knowledge gained with experiencing baseball or playing baseball that is difficult if not impossible for those who never played to understand. I wouldn’t want a front office person who never played the game at a high level to be in charge of developing and coaching players. They may not know anything about how to spin a breaking ball or how to stay back on a breaking ball, etc. Just like I wouldn’t necessarily want a player to try to build a roster or scout a player. That player may not know anything about what the data shows regarding historical trends or what to look for to determine a player’s hit tool on the 20-80 scale.
The perfect baseball person would have played the game at a high level and would have educated himself on scouting concepts and data analysis concepts and statistical studies. But I’m not sure there is a perfect baseball person.
It’s about getting as much information, as much information that reflects reality as possible. When you close yourself off to legit, objective information because you are too confident in your own assumptions, that’s when you start to get in trouble. That’s when I start to raise my voice, so to speak, on here. Frankly because it’s fun to point out to someone who has made an unfounded assumption what the information that is there for all to see actually suggests.
ncscoots
October 11th, 2012
2:43 pm
wOBA supports my belief
What other offseason moves is wOBA giving you, O Swami?
Kentavo
October 11th, 2012
2:43 pm
Or you could go the old school Braves route and sign Grienke, then use starting pitching depth to acquire other needs.
Murph
October 11th, 2012
2:46 pm
What other offseason moves is wOBA giving you, O Swami?
Denard Span.
My wOBA crystal ball is also telling me that the team needs to stay the hell away from Revere, confirming your assumptions that he’s crap.
ccrider
October 11th, 2012
2:47 pm
I would,personally, not want to trade young pitching for a short term fix. Now, if it involved Chase Headley, I would amend that.
But, Headley, coming of the career year he had, the cost in players would be prohibitive to the point of clouding the future of the team.
My preference would be to trade for young hitters, like Mike Olt, Denard Span or Ben Revere. Keep the starting lineup young with potential peaking at the right time to win a World Series in a few years.
CF Revere, LF Prado, RF Heyward, Olt, Freeman, Uggla, McCann, Simmons, use the rest of the payroll to add a No.1 proven starter. Greinke or perhaps a trade for David Price.
Price, Medlen, Minor, Beachy and Graham or Spruiel.
Oakland and St. Louis are showing big name position players are not the be all or end all need.
Two years from now, the lineup and rotation could look like the players above, except Evan Gattis replacing Dan Uggla and Nick Ahmed pushing for regular playing time with Prado moving back to 2nd base and only 2 starters being in their early 30’s(Prado and McCann).
A team like the Braves(Limited Resources) must build to a peak and hope the majority of the players peak at the same time
bball fan
October 11th, 2012
2:47 pm
It’s always better to trade a player a year early than a year late. McCann is not a good defensive catcher and he is injured a lot. He needs to go and please do not resign Bourn. Your leadoff hitter should not strike out over 150 times.
Tom
October 11th, 2012
2:48 pm
Could probably get 30 homers and 100 RBIs out of Soriano and Francisco flip flop platoon using Prado. I would go for that if the Cubs would take someone like Varvaro and give us $30 mil.
cricket
October 11th, 2012
2:50 pm
Juan Francisco needs to go somewhere that he can play a fairly regular third base. Give him a chance to refine his game if possible. But he really doesn’t fit well here.
Wayne – that somewhere is here with the braves since our 3B has retired and Prado can stay at LF. only problem is, except Lew, none of us want to give him that chance
Mountain Braves Fan
October 11th, 2012
2:50 pm
DOB, thanks for a great article!
The Braves most pressing need this off-season is to find a legitimate preferably right handed power bat to insert in the cleanup spot between Heyward and Freeman and play a serviceable left field (or 3B if Prado stays in left). This player should hit for power, get on base, drive in runs, and because of the Braves collective struggles against lefties, hit well versus LHP.
To quantify this Braves need, I set the following as minimum acceptable standards for the right handed power bat: 20 HRs, 80 RBIs, .800 OPS overall, and an .800 OPS versus LHP. I looked at all outfielders in Major League Baseball, including those who bat right handed, left handed, and switch hit, and a total of 17 outfielders made the cut by meeting all four minimum standards. Only one of them bats left handed: Josh Hamilton.
Notable players who failed to make the cut, due to their OPS versus LHP, include Curtis Granderson (.762), Jay Bruce (.754), Nick Swisher (.769), and Carlos Gonzalez (.742). Due to injuries, Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista did not meet the RBI standard, and Bautista’s OPS versus LHP was .718. These are all great players and the Braves would be lucky to have any of them, but the 17 players listed below best meet the Braves’ particular need for a right handed power bat. That some of them play center field is an added bonus.
Many of these 17 players are the face of their franchise and as such are unobtainable and/or unaffordable for the Braves. All of them have an offensive skill set that the Braves need. Some make sense, some don’t (I wouldn’t jump through any hoops to get Soriano for left field, for example). The outfielders are sorted by HRs (most to least).
NAME TEAM HRs/RBIs/OPS/OPS-LHP CONTRACT
JOSH HAMILTON TEX 43/128/.931/.853 Free Agent.
RYAN BRAUN MIL 41/112/.986/1.208 8 years $135.5 million + 2021 $15 million mutual option ($4 million buyout) + no-trade protection.
GIANCARLO STANTON MIA 37/86/.969/1.024 $480K in 2012. Team control through 2016.
JOSH WILLINGHAM MIN 35/110/.890/.920 2 years $14 million + 2014 salary increases by $1 million with 525 plate appearances in 2013.
CARLOS BELTRAN STL 32/97/.841/.867 1 year $13 million + full no trade + award bonuses.
ALFONSO SORIANO CHC 32/108/.821/.831 2 years $36 million + full no trade + award bonuses.
ADAM JONES BAL 32/82/.839/.800 6 years $85.5 million + no trade protection + performance bonuses.
MARK TRUMBO LAA 32/95/.808/.808 $500K in 2012. Team control through 2016.
ANDREW MCCUTCHEON PIT 31/91/.953/1.140 5 years $48.75 million + 2018 $14.5 million club option ($1 million buyout).
COREY HART MIL 30/83/.841/.893 2 years $19 million + limited no trade (15 team block).
MIKE TROUT LAA 30/83/.963/.862 $480K in 2012. Team control through 2017.
MATT HOLLIDAY STL 27/102/.876/1.021 4 years $68 million + 2017 $17 million club option ($1 million buyout) + full no trade + award bonuses.
RYAN LUDWICK CIN 26/80/.877/.937 2013 $5 million mutual option ($500K buyout).
ALEX RIOS CHW 25/91/.850/.857 2 years $25 million + 2015 $13.5 million club option ($1 million buyout) + limited trade protection + salary escalators if traded.
YOENIS CESPEDES OAK 23/82/.854/.853 3 years $29.5 million.
CODY ROSS BOS 22/81/.807/1.010 Free Agent.
ALLEN CRAIG STL 22/92/.876/1.011 $495K in 2012. Team control through 2016.
HONORABLE MENTION:
MATT KEMP LAD 23/69/.905/1.105 7 years $150 million.
This is by no means an all-inclusive list. I am sure that Wren will “leave no stone unturned” in search of the right player and the right deal for the Braves, someone who fits both in the clubhouse and in the budget. But looking at players who have the skill set we need is a good place to start.
Gameday
October 11th, 2012
2:52 pm
Doesnt matter who we sign. At the end of the day we are the Atlanta Braves and thus will choke in the playoffs.
Frankie
October 11th, 2012
2:53 pm
“I’d love to see an A’s/Giants WS with the A’s winning it all in dramatic fashion. I might actually watch some of those games.”
As long as Al Michaels isn’t broadcasting a major catastrophic event causes a delay in the series.
RC
October 11th, 2012
2:54 pm
My guide to how I’m going to justify being happy for whatever team wins the WS:
Reds – My wife’s family is from Ohio, so they’ll be happy about it. Also, Brandon Phillips is from ATL and seems like a cool guy based on his Twitter account.
Giants – Buster Posey is a GA boy who’s little league coach is one of my dads friends.
Nationals – They stuck to their guns by not letting Teddy Roosevelt win the President’s race until they made the playoffs. 8 years worth of him losing….dating back even to the RFK days. Gotta admire the restraint, especially since the damn drill wins the final home game at Turner Field every year.
Cardinals – Yadier Molina is a class act. In Chipper’s last at bat he did everything he could to extend the moment before crouching down behind the plate; fixing the grass in front of the plate, talking to his pitcher, forcing his pitcher to change balls right before the at-bat started. As annoying as I find the Cardinals in general, that was pretty classy by Molina.
A’s – It’d be nice to see Billy Beane’s s*** work in the playoffs for once. Also, more television coverage of Coco Crisp’s receding hairline afro is a win for everyone.
Orioles – Because it’d be nice to see something so different that Billy Beane’s s*** work in the playoffs. Also, my best friend lives in Baltimore now, and I’ll be there the night of a possible WS game 7. Plus, Dan Symborski who writes for ESPN is an O’s fan, and he was pretty vocal against the “infield fly” call during the Braves game.
Tigers – It’s getting a bit tougher now….I guess I’d be happy for Omar Infante. He always seemed like a good dude, and played really hard for the Braves.
Yankees – Umm…..if the bad guys don’t win every now and then, it’s not as sweet when they don’t win? Yeah, I’ll go with that.
flange1
October 11th, 2012
2:57 pm
Great post RC!
Shaun
October 11th, 2012
2:57 pm
Tumbledown, for instance, the whole clutch issue. I’m honestly not trying to be closed off to the other side. If someone came to me right now and gave me all this information that shows that there are certain major leaguers who are and have been drastically more or less clutch than others for no other reason that they have some sort of clutch characteristic separate from overall skills and abilities, I honestly would change my views.
The problem I have is that I firmly believe, based on the information that is there for all of us to see, that it’s very unlikely there are any significant number of players throughout the history of the game and who are playing now, who have been much more or less clutch than others because of some distinct clutch skills separate from other baseball skills. I didn’t arrive at this view in any other way accept that’s where I believe the information takes us, trying my best to leave my personal, subjective views of players out of it.
Fols
October 11th, 2012
3:00 pm
That’s a lot of roster moving for a team that just needed to field a ball cleanly and throw the ball accurate on the biggest game of the year.
I know people get pissed off when you stand pat, but Wren did the right thing last year. This was a good ball club. It’s not Wren’s fault or FG for that matter than Chipper Jones of all people would ‘Yunel’ the ball over to 2nd base. 3 ground ball errors in a single game playoff….that’s called not showing up to the dance.
Unreal, still such a shame that it was thrown away like that.
Etrain
October 11th, 2012
3:01 pm
I still think Francisco should get a chance to prove himself… He’s got the potential to be as good or better than any free agent available… If he doesn’t meet expectations by the all star break we have the pieces to make a trade that will improve the team. Even in this scenario we still have a team that can compete up to the all star break.. I don’t think there’s a better option thats going to give you that many wins above replacement… It also frees up money that can be used to fill other holes… Guess no one agrees, but I don’t understand why it’s not even a consideration.
cricket
October 11th, 2012
3:02 pm
i’m not going to be happy for any team that wins WS
Puma
October 11th, 2012
3:04 pm
RC – anybody besides the Cardinals or Giants, but especially not the Cards.
Murph
October 11th, 2012
3:05 pm
Is there a coach who is responsible for fielding? We’ve got a pitching coach, 2 hitting coaches, a coach who holds the players shin guards and tells them to run to 2nd base, another coach who shakes hands with players as they run to home plate, a coach who coaches players while they are sitting on the bench… but who handles fielding?
Shaun
October 11th, 2012
3:08 pm
Tumbledown, I think a lot of the whole clutch thing is about one’s personal and subjective views of a player. Alex Rodriguez is overpaid, plays for the Yankees, used PEDs, allowed himself to be photographed kissing himself, seems largely unlikeable, hasn’t hit well in the postseason recently; so it seems right to assume that he’s not a clutch person.
Sure there is a lot of information that may suggest otherwise. The fact that he’s performed pretty well overall in the postseason, the fact that he’s had some really good postseasons, the fact that he’s in his late 30’s and he’s had a serious hip injury the last several years and perhaps he’s been dealing with other injuries. But it’s easy to not look at all the information skeptically and just criticize A-Rod for not being clutch, using only the information that can confirm he’s not clutch, instead of taking in all the information and accepting whatever reality that comes out based on viewing all the information in an open manner.
Puma
October 11th, 2012
3:08 pm
So I did not get to watch the Wild Card game, I had a job interview an hour after the game started which with travel time pretty much eliminated any chance to watch the game. (When I got back in the car to leave, put it on the radio and it was right after the whole infield fly thing) Anyway, two questions:
Did Meds pitch well enough to win?
Did we only lose because of errors? Were those errors basically routine plays?
Lew
October 11th, 2012
3:08 pm
cricket – Well, if I had my druthers, I’d druther have David Wright at third. However, if it came down to it I could see a three way platoon in LF/3B with Prado, Francisco and a LHP raking LFer. Maybe not the optimal solution, but I’d be willing to bet it would be much better than most think it would be.
Tumbledown
October 11th, 2012
3:09 pm
Thanks N8, I love considering the mental and emotional side of sports. The humanity involved in sporting competition is what, I believe, truly makes it special. That will always make me somewhat of an antagonist to a pure statistical viewpoint. At the same time, I am open to receiving statistical data and adjusting my assumptions.
tony austin
October 11th, 2012
3:12 pm
I have nothing against Francisco, but that dude has almost no plate discipline. He struck out 70 times in 192 AB, or once aever 2.74 ABs. Prorated to the amount of ABs for Dan Uggla, Fransisco would strike out 190 times. That’s pushing Granderson and Adam Dunn numbers with only half the HRs. Not worth it in my opinion.
P-Town Brave ©
October 11th, 2012
3:14 pm
“I think folks around here can tell who has some experience in the game from those who only chest-thump about having such”
And how do you figure? —- Didn’t you just say that you could not play and know a lot and play and know little….?
Because some of us know each other outside this blog and bring information here that we know or have heard from other avenues we’re not allowed to mention it…..and just because 1 person isn’t proud of their accomplishments means everyone should shut up about who they are or what they do….
Why, because you said so…..?
Who the hell went and made you king of all blogs?!
Frankly, its people like you that keep a lot of individuals away from here
You’re not better than anyone on here even though your condescending opinion would suggest you believe as much….
Tom
October 11th, 2012
3:15 pm
I am with you etrain and lew. Let’s wait and see what we really need next June. Then go get that game changer with the money we have.
cricket
October 11th, 2012
3:15 pm
Lew – i won’t be surprised at all if we end up with 3-way platoon. braves just don’t have as many druthers as Ted used to make available..
jj
October 11th, 2012
3:15 pm
Mountain Braves Fan..Great job. Thanks..
Lew
October 11th, 2012
3:15 pm
Puma – Meds pitched well enough to win – 2 ER in (I believe) 7 IP. And yes, the three errors doomed us (as did Bourn striking out with the bases loaded), though the botched call definitely took air out he sails and made a rally much more difficult.
But the Braves had twelve hits and still couldn’t score. Very badly played game with a terrible call.
Etrain
October 11th, 2012
3:15 pm
tony austin-
Doesn’t there have to be some consideration/leniency for lack of consistent play?
Murph
October 11th, 2012
3:15 pm
To be fair to Juan Francisco, when starting, he only strikes out one out of every three AB’s vs one out of every two as a PH.
P-Town Brave ©
October 11th, 2012
3:16 pm
Tumble-
Better you than me….
I was AWFUL at tennis….just awful….
As they say, some of us are good at one thing or another, but only a handful are good at everything….
Just baseball and basketball for me….mom wouldn’t let me continue playing football for fear of injuries and concussions…back before that even became the norm…
But yeah, wow was I bad at tennis….thanks for bringing up horrible memories in my mind
tony austin
October 11th, 2012
3:16 pm
Puma:
Did Meds pitch well enough to win? Yes.
Did we only lose because of errors? Yes. Were those errors basically routine plays? Yes.
Also a lack of hitting with runners in scoring position didn’t help the Braves either.
tony austin
October 11th, 2012
3:18 pm
Etrain – perhaps, but watching some of his ABs were very painful. I’d hate to rely on the hope that he’d straighten things out if he were playing regular. Risk/reward type of thing I guess.
DAP
October 11th, 2012
3:19 pm
anybody but the yanks or cardinals for me. id love to see the Os or As make it to the WS, just because no one saw it coming. the tigers havent won since ‘84, and the reds havent since ‘90, i believe. so, i could root for any of those teams.
Ward
October 11th, 2012
3:21 pm
Hello everyone! Good post, and I would like Uggla, and Mac to come back. I think Braves have the money to sign Bourn, or sign a center fielder, and LF. I would like Prado at 3rd base. Can’t throw players under the bus like Uggla, and Mac. I would like to see what they can do for 2 more seasons.
P-Town Brave ©
October 11th, 2012
3:22 pm
Murph-
If I recall correctly, TP works with the team on defense while Tosca who is the bench coach works on in game defensive positioning (something I feel has been atrocious since the early/mid 90s)
Murph
October 11th, 2012
3:22 pm
The Reds are trying to come back. 6-3 now, bottom of the 6th, 2 outs, man on 2nd, Cain being replaced by Kontos.
Murph
October 11th, 2012
3:23 pm
If I recall correctly, TP works with the team on defense
Fire TP!
P-Town Brave ©
October 11th, 2012
3:24 pm
BTW, the convo between Shaun and Tumble has been pretty good….
I agree w/ an extent w/ you both….
I am still under the belief though that certain guys just have something that in unidentifiable come playoff time that just makes them better —- as Tumble called it, intangibles
Ward
October 11th, 2012
3:24 pm
I think braves should sign Reed Johnson, Ross to back up Mac, bring in Mejia next year to back up Freeman,Francisco backing up LF, and 3rd base, and maybe Parraz on the bench? Many options though on the bench…….
Etrain
October 11th, 2012
3:24 pm
Granted it’s the minors, but in his last 3 years in the minors he struck out 264 times in 1206 pa… Thats roughly 130 strikeouts a year. He also batted 299.6 (so lets just round that up to 300)…. I’d take that production even if it was a bit tainted one way or another when jumping to the MLB…
P-Town Brave ©
October 11th, 2012
3:25 pm
Murph-
Don’t worry….awful Drew Stubbs successfully ended that inning
Shaun
October 11th, 2012
3:25 pm
Tumbledown, the thing is the “statistical side” of the game is a record of what happened. It doesn’t mean you negate the human side. If Chipper Jones hits a homerun because he’s talented, he worked hard to get to the position he’s in, he’s had experiences since age 4 or 5 or whenever of playing the game, etc. the homerun still shows up in the stat sheet.
Watching video of a game is a record of what happened. Does that mean if you watch video, you don’t understand the human side of the game?
Stats are useful because they give you games and games worth of information at one time.
keyLargo
October 11th, 2012
3:25 pm
I found this “old timers game” from the Yankees with Mickey Mantle batting against Whitey Ford.
Mantle was already sick but through this 5 pitch clip you can see him timing every pitch a little closer until the last one. Home Run – in an old timers game.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9fNcMLaW_A&NR=1&feature=endscreen
O.M.G.
October 11th, 2012
3:25 pm
Shaun, I respect your data knowledge. Please anwser for me the follow questions. How many times did a Brave strike out with a runner on third with least than 2 outs and how does that compare to the rest of the league. Same question with two outs. It felt like it happened alot this year, but I really don’t know if it was above league average.
Fols
October 11th, 2012
3:26 pm
I want to go back in time and see what happens if Chipper Jones throws that ball on the money…..and lets say they get the double play.
….does Meds settle that down and escape the inning with the lead in place?
….do the other erros happen?
….does Julio Franco come of the bench?
None of these can be answered.
Puma
October 11th, 2012
3:26 pm
Thanks Lew & Tony Austin. That’s what I had read, but you never really know unless you watch the game. I guess I am a little glad I didn’t see that. An entire season of great defence, then one game of crap kills us…nice.
Lew
October 11th, 2012
3:26 pm
I look at it like this, re: The Platoon I proposed -
We’ve been looking for that illusive power hitting, LHP raking, LFer for how long now? Five, six, seven years? What has been the result of the search (and attendant hand wringing, teeth gnashing, moaning and wailing) to this point? Loaf? Melky? And now we’re discussing trading good pitching for a two year rental of Josh Willingham – who many have serious questions about, relating to age, cost and durability. Or trying to sign a player – Cody Ross – who turned down a multi year deal with the Braves just last year.
Now granted there are likely options none of us have considered that FW could conceivably target via trade. The Free Agent waters are drought condition low this winter and the options there are, less than optimal.
Could we find (at a very reasonable price) a part time LFer with good numbers against LHP with decent defense that would not be considered for full time duty – maybe because they can’t hit RHP worth a damn? Likely much easier than we could the sought after paragon who has remained in hiding for so long.
Can Prado do a much more than credible job in LF AND 3B – of course he can -he already has. Can Francisco play decent defense and rake against RHP? Absolutely. He’s also done it.
So it makes sense that if you can’t find the Golden Child we all wish would come out of the mist to save the Braves with timely hitting, Gold Glove defense and all around superlative play, that you go with a solution that would quite probably work very well.
But that actually makes sense and – as well all know – sense (since) is a rare commodity in most of our discussions.
Tumbledown
October 11th, 2012
3:26 pm
Rather than evaluate players on a clutch scale, I just feel that players all differ in their abilities to focus and perform at the highest ability especially as the stakes get higher. Some people tend to get sidetracked by thinking about how much glory they will receive by coming through, others will fight demons of failure in heir head, while a third group may be able to focus exclusively on the task at hand.
Anyway, I know people are tired of the clutch issue so I will stop here.
Etrain
October 11th, 2012
3:28 pm
tony austin-
i think the risk/huge reward is well worth it… If it’s a flop we have the money and the pieces to make a big splash at the deadline… And with the team we have now and a decent center fielder. We can compete up to the deadline without getting to far behind.
P-Town Brave ©
October 11th, 2012
3:28 pm
I am with Mountain….
I think its pretty obvious the team needs to do something to fix the cleanup spot and then as Wren said, find our CF that could also possibly be our leadoff hitter
Corey Hart was a name I mentioned before but I was REALLY concerned on his H/R splits….
Another I mentioned was Jose Bautista and whether he may or may not be available….
Besides that, like was said, the list is VERY short of anyone we may have a shot at….
Bet some wish they had a different tune on Adam Jones…..
BUT if we knew then what we know now, we’d all be living in the Caribbean right?
Fols
October 11th, 2012
3:29 pm
Is there a scale to determine how many wins Melky provided the Giants?
If it means winning a division, i’d have no problem juicing up a guy like Melky to get massive production knowing that you’ll lose him but just have a good option 4th outfielder to replace and boom…..you have the Giants. Farther than the Braves after riding much of the season with HGH leading the charge.
Ward
October 11th, 2012
3:30 pm
Sign for the two big bats Braves need, and if the pitching doesn’t work out? Trade at the All Star Break for an ace…..
Tumbledown
October 11th, 2012
3:32 pm
P-town – I did try baseball as a youngster, but got struck in the eye. So, I turned to a sport which seemed to be and is not quite as dangerous, unless you try to leap the net and fail!!