Lohse thinks he tipped pitches in May vs. Braves

Friday night’s Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse gave five runs on nine hits in five innings the last time he faced the Braves May 30, including home runs to both Brian McCann and Freddie Freeman. He thinks he might have been tipping his pitches that night.

“I thought maybe a couple of the hitters might have known some things that were coming,” Lohse said.

He immediately made an adjustment with his delivery, taking his hands over his head instead of keeping them up in front of his chest.

“I don’t know if that really had much of a difference for real or just maybe a mental thing,” Lohse said. “It seemed to work a little bit.”

Lohse went 7-3 with a 2.08 ERA over his next 10 starts, allowing two or fewer runs in nine of them.

Lohse, who celebrated his 34th birthday Thursday, was chosen over Adam Wainwright to start the one-game playoff for the Cardinals because he’s been their most consistent starter throughout the season. Lohse finished the season 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA while Wainwright was 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA.

Cardinals lineup

Manager Mike Matheny announced his lineup for Friday’s game:

1. Jon Jay CF

2. Carlos Beltran RF

3. Matt Holliday LF

4. Allen Craig 1B

5. Yadier Molina C

6. David Freese 3B

7. Daniel Descalso 2B

8. Pete Kozma SS

9. Kyle Lohse P

Injuries

Veteran first baseman Lance Berkman is not expected to be on the Cardinals roster for Friday’s game. He has been out most of the year following two knee operations, the latest on Sept. 11, and is contemplating retirement. He pinch hit in the Cardinals’ final regular season game on Wednesday, grounding out, but that was largely to give the Cardinals fans a chance to honor him with an ovation. It was his first appearance in a game since Sept. 7.

“He’s feeling a lot of restriction the further he tries to push it,” Matheny said Thursday. “We’re not ruling anything out…but right now he’s not ready.”

Former Brave shortstop Rafael Furcal has been out since Aug. 30 with a torn ligament in his right elbow. He’s hoping a platelet-rich plasma injection will help him avoid “Tommy John” surgery. Pete Kozma, 24, a first-round draft pick in 2007, has hit .333 (24-for-72) with five doubles, three triples, two home runs and 14 RBIs in 26 games in place of Furcal.

42 comments Add your comment

Brave Decisions

October 4th, 2012
4:45 pm

I think the Braves can still get to Lohse, don;t believe it had a huge effect. Will be a great pitchers duel though. Have some thoughts on the game, http://wp.me/p2lqJ1-er

Weaseal

October 4th, 2012
5:00 pm

Is it Friday Yet ????!!!!

Bream Is My Homie

October 4th, 2012
5:07 pm

Seems like pitchers shouldn’t be allowed to tip there pitches.

JMac

October 4th, 2012
5:34 pm

REMEMBER….. Eventually ALL streaks come to an end. The longer it goes, the odds of it continuing get worse and worse. I believe Medlen’s will end tomorrow.

bravofan

October 4th, 2012
5:47 pm

What a profound statement from another moron on this site. Yes jmac im talking about you. Every streak must come to an end duhhhh…. as for the odds, the odds of winning any single game is only changed by the team you are playing. Streak or no streak has nothing to do with odds. Get educated before you state something like that you moron!

bravofan

October 4th, 2012
5:48 pm

Braves win 5-2!!!

Ritz

October 4th, 2012
5:51 pm

JMac – That is incorrect. While the streak as a whole is incredibly rare each game remains an independent entity.

Medlen has just as much of a chance to win or lose Friday’s game as he would any other game. Just because he pitched really well in his last 23 starts doesn’t mean he is “overdue” to pitch poorly in this next game.

If anything, based on his performance I would say the odds are slightly better that the streak will continue. It might not end until he loses some game 1-0 or 2-1 due to poor Braves offense.

JMac

October 4th, 2012
6:03 pm

@Ritz, all I can say is… What did you read? I NEVER made any mention about Medlen pitching poorly tomorrow. I simply stated that I believe the streak of the Braves winning every game he starts, will end tomorrow. Let’s see, did the Braves win all of the starts by Glavine or Smoltz? They usually pitched really good in their starts, but some of the games were not won. Medlen is a very good pitcher, but to expect the Braves to keep winning every time he goes out there is ridiculous. The longer that happens, the shorter the odds get. I say again, and maybe you will understand my meaning… EVENTUALLY ALL STREAKS WILL COME TO AN END, and I believe tomorrow his streak will end. What part of that do you not understand?

bravofan

October 4th, 2012
6:20 pm

Enter your comments hereodds are same.do you understand?

bravofan

October 4th, 2012
6:25 pm

@ jmac..Eventually is the only part you got right in all that bs u posted… odds are no different in this start his last start or his next start in the nlds. Go away troll!!

Dirty Dawg

October 4th, 2012
7:17 pm

Enter your comments here

Dirty Dawg

October 4th, 2012
7:24 pm

Would somebody explain how, and/or why, a platelet-enriched (or whatever it’s called) injection, or Tommy John surgery for that matter, is so different than other types of ‘performance-enhancing’ drugs? Seems to me that most of the reasons PEDs are banned is that it isn’t fair to players that don’t use em, or to those that played, and set records, before these things were available.

BC

October 4th, 2012
7:37 pm

Jmac, Isn’t there a St. Louis blog you should be wearing out.

Lamar

October 4th, 2012
7:44 pm

Lmac doesn’t belong to STL…I am a die hard Cards fan. The game will be competitive. Good luck to both teams! Ps, It would be great for Atlanta to win, however, since this isChipper’s final year!

Lamar

October 4th, 2012
7:47 pm

Jmac, go trolling on the Yankees site…you sound like one those know it alls!

shadetree

October 4th, 2012
7:53 pm

Leave JMAC alone. I understand what he is trying to say but this game coming up is no different than any other Meds start. It’s just that he is playing the Cardinals.

They are good and have a good offense. I think we can get them on defense. We just have to become better than the worst runners in scoring position than last in the NL.

While evryone is opting for a pitchers duel, how many times have we seen it go opposite.

Braves 10, Cards 8

Aisle 117 row 18

Go Braves.

But for you JMAC to pick against the Bravos you are no fan.

For I will be like the others and say go somewhere else.

Go Braves

We need Bourn to trip the lights Fandango

Can some whiz give me Bourns BA against Loshe.

I guess McCann is hurt since he ain’t in the lineup.

Boscan could be our Francisco Cabreara.

We need JHay to step up and Prado to keep rolling and if Hoss could take the team on his back that would be great. We will go the way of the Hoss. Funny, 100 years ago they said the Hoss was dead.

Carl Farvman

October 4th, 2012
9:01 pm

“JMac – That is incorrect. While the streak as a whole is incredibly rare each game remains an independent entity.”

You guys think you’re so smart. What the original poster meant is that, unless perfection is the norm–which we know has never been done with MLB pitching-with every win he is closer to a no decision or a loss. Yes, the opponent is the variable, but statistically [or whatever you prefer to call it] he will not maintain a perfect record forever. This is a fact and you can throw out your technical jargon all you want to and call people morons for failing to have your high level of understanding, but you can’t escape reality. He’s closer to an L now than he was 10 games ago.

Carl Farvman

October 4th, 2012
9:04 pm

JMAC, don’t waste your time with that nitwit. He’s off somewhere trying to convince someone else that he’s a really smart guy.

lazlodawg

October 4th, 2012
9:22 pm

The probability that the Braves lose the next start by Medlen is INDEPENDENT of what has happened in his prior starts. For example, (and I know baseball game outcomes are not 50/50, but hang with me here) the odds that I flip a coin and get heads is 50%, right? Well it is possible that I can flip a coin and get heads 20 times in a row. Not likely, but possible. Say I do manage it – the odds that I get heads on my next coin flip is still 50% – not less than that just because I’ve done it 20 times in a row before. Same principle here when discussing Medlen and his streak.

bitman

October 4th, 2012
9:37 pm

@Carl Farvman: Keep your day job. Your understanding of probability and statistics is just as bad as JMac’s. The previous games have absolutely no bearing on the odds of winning or losing the next one. The odds of achieving a 24 game streak are incredibly high at the beginning,, but after 23 consecutive wins, the odds of winning the 24th are no different than were the odds of winning the first, all other things equal.

BRAVESFAN

October 4th, 2012
9:44 pm

I think Kyle Lohse just can’t take a good chopping.

AdirondackDave

October 4th, 2012
9:48 pm

My understanding is that Medlen’s streak is a regular season record. We are now in the post-season so Kris will resume his record streak in April, 2013. Anybody out there know for sure?

Brandon

October 5th, 2012
1:31 am

This probability argument is silly. Whether you guys want to say that friday’s game is INDEPENDENT or not, it should still be quite obvious that the likelihood of medlen maintaining his streak much longer is slim. Why do you think his streak is a major league record? It is a major league record because no other pitcher in the history of the game has done it. Let me ask this…during dan uggla’s 30 something game hit streak last, did anybody say that dan uggla would pass joe dimaggio’s record because he was on the streak? If not, why not? Think about that

But anyways, with that said, I believe that the Braves will win this game and I do believe that this is their year.

Columbus

October 5th, 2012
1:57 am

This game IS different than ALL of Medlins previous starts. It matters MOST. The season is ON THE LINE. Throw EVERYTHING from the season and streaks out the window. When it comes to pitching in the playoffs and hitting, its focus, determination and mental state along with ability. Medlin has never been in this spot. How will he do? He is a cool customer and I think he will do great under the pressure. He will likely be pumped up and be throwing a couple of miles an hour faster which may help him or hurt him. As far as going into that extra gear mentally and with focus and determination? We will find out tomorrow. Can leave one hanging and cant let up mentally or physically on ONE pitch. Every pitcher can have a game where is arm is dead and he knows it when he out there warming up and knows it immediately. That cant happen tomorrow. Braves havent played the Cards since May? Is that right? HUGE advantage Medlin IMO.

j-brave

October 5th, 2012
3:48 am

This game makes me so nervous. I cannot believe they didn’t throw a lefty at us- I know they don’t have any good lefties, but a rookie call-up would have done the trick against us most likely.

Lohse is an average pitcher having a career year. It’s very strange that he has become such a good pitcher this late in his career, his career ERA being 4.45. But even with his 16-3 record this year and absurd era and whip, I think I’d rather face him than a lefty.

Armchair Observer

October 5th, 2012
7:01 am

To all you theorists, that is why they play the game.

Good call on Rossie.

Like the Braves chances, negative Nancy’s stay away.

Win one for the Chipper.

J J

October 5th, 2012
7:24 am

IT makes no difference whop either side pitches. Braves have Hooter hero running the show. Guess what? See you next year Braves.

probability brave

October 5th, 2012
7:32 am

The probability of the Braves winning Medlen’s start IS the same (or at least we assume that by ignoring differences between opponents, etc.) for the reasons stated, we’ll call it p.

The probability of the streak going x games is p^x. Since p is always less than 1 p^x is always greater than p(x+1). SO the chances that the Braves win THIS GAME has nothing to do with the streak, BUT the probability the streak being 24 games is smaller than the probability that the streak being 23 games.

All that said – Braves 3 Cardinals 2

pcola braves fan

October 5th, 2012
7:47 am

I’m starting my trek to the playoffs… A 5 hour drive and then four wonderful days in Atlanta watching the Braves kick butt. With all the predictions going here, it’s my turn. I’m saying this is where the kid from Curacao shows his stuff. It’s going to be clutch hitting by Uggla, Heyward, Chipper and Simmons…GO BRAVES!!!!

J J

October 5th, 2012
7:56 am

@probability brave Where exactly did you find the 3 runs. No bats. Hooter hero on ego trip.2 broken down cachers, a second baseman that just swings for the fences-thusly K’s. A rookie SS that has no clue how to play inplayoff. A CF just waiting until he can be a National. That only leaves Prado,Heyward,and Freeman. They have had good years,but it won’t be enough. Cardinals 10 Braves 1

Coach D

October 5th, 2012
8:04 am

@ JMac: Go back to your St. Louis papers.

Jimmy Crack

October 5th, 2012
8:55 am

He must have been tipping his pitches the entire postseason last year too, as his 2011 stats show he didn’t exactly help his team win the World Series…

3 Games – 0-2 (W-L) – 12.2 Innings – 18 Hits – 12 Runs – 11 Earned Runs – 4 HRs – 7.82 ERA

It appears Lohse is not a primetime pitcher.

Crusin' the field

October 5th, 2012
9:08 am

I think it’s time for Lohse’s streak to end, whatever that was.

Ted Striker

October 5th, 2012
9:11 am

@JJ……Man, based on what your saying, I can’t believe the Braves won 94 games with that terrible team…..must have done it with smoke and mirrors…You’re an idiot…

Kelly Carter

October 5th, 2012
9:15 am

@JMac: Statistically, that’s not necessarily true. Although it makes common sense to think a streak is more likely to end later on, all things the same, the probability of the streak ending are equal every game that the streak is tested. What might make your claim correct, though, is if the person having the streak lets their psychology get affected and change something they’re doing in hopes of not breaking the streak. The key is to just approach every game the same way without regard to the streak.

chipdog

October 5th, 2012
9:53 am

is the game sold out tonight? chipper deserves a sell out for his last game

Disbott3000

October 5th, 2012
9:55 am

Jmac can suck it. Medlen is going to make the Cards look stupid this evening and the
Braves will be moving on to the next series. I believe it, and so it shall be. Go Braves!!

Greg Norton

October 5th, 2012
9:57 am

Some people just think it’s cool to get on here and make anonomous predictions so they can say “I told you so”. They are all idiots. JMac…. You are the focal point of this post.

I believe Freddi learned a lot from last year and has done a fine job this year. I’m nervous, excited, and confident. We have a great team and a big future. Looking forward to tonight.

For next year, WE HAVE A HOLE IN THE LINEUP AT 3RD. I hope we spend the money to plug the hole and keep center like it is.

Chop-Chop!

Jo

October 5th, 2012
11:59 am

Lets just hope FG doesnt tip his hat at the end of the game…

Lemke's Knuckler

October 5th, 2012
12:20 pm

If Medlen keeps the ball in the park, the Braves win. If he makes a few mistakes to either one of Beltran, Holliday, Freese or Molina, we could very well lose this game.

Regardless, I don’t either team will score more than 4 runs. And I think Fredi needs to be ready to put Kimbrel out there for 2 innings tonight. With a lead, I’d bring the kid in for both the 8th and 9th. I don’t think you can risk putting O’Flaherty or Venters out there against the heart of their order which is almost all right-handed bats.

Lemke's Knuckler

October 5th, 2012
12:26 pm

Lohse wasn’t very good in last year’s postseason.

NLDS against Philllies: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER
NLCS against Brewers: 4.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER
WS against Rangers: 3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER

Overall, he was 0-2 with a 7.82 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP in the playoffs. That after going 6-1 with a 3.26 ERA down the stretch last year.

So let’s hope he’s just one of those guys that regresses a bit in the postseason, much like he did last year.

Barbara

October 5th, 2012
2:16 pm

Our advantage is we are Home. If Heyward and Freeman are hot tonight we will win. Fredi needs to play small ball for once he hasn’t played it all year. We need this win so we can pay back the Nasty Nats

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