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© 2013 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1,372 comments Add your comment
ncscoots
October 1st, 2012
2:10 pm
Some where around his age 26-29 seasons
He waits that long, he’ll be dead to me when it happens.
Efrim
October 1st, 2012
2:10 pm
Such a thing can waylay your confidence about your ability to hit when down in the count (because, let’s face it, he was helpless when behind last year), and that means you’ll do a lot to not get in that situation.
I think I’ve brought this up before, but, do you think pitchers went after him differently as the season went along? – or that he was so aggressive he was just trying to not get behind in the count and swinging at near everything so he didn’t see pitch #5. I think you pretty much just said that, but I was always baffled at how pitchers were throwing first pitch strikes to him – no matter what.
Murph
October 1st, 2012
2:10 pm
I haven’t seen anyone being mean about the AL MVP race… then again, I probably haven’t read most of the comments about it because, well, it’s about the AL MVP race. Only slightly less relevant to the going concern than the discussions about the 2014 starting rotation.
Efrim
October 1st, 2012
2:13 pm
Some where around his age 26-29 seasons he’ll “break out.” We will all weep with joy as he “finally got it figured out” right around the same time most every ball player gets it “figured out.”
Nothing TenneseePaul hates more than “hype” and “future promise”.
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
2:13 pm
Heyward is comfortably one of the 15 most valuable players in baseball this season.
phil
October 1st, 2012
2:17 pm
And Shaun is comfortably the most irritating baseball blogger I’ve ever seen…..
And I’m with Murph on the meaningless mvp thing.
ncscoots
October 1st, 2012
2:17 pm
but I was always baffled at how pitchers were throwing first pitch strikes to him – no matter what.
Book on him was always that he was not aggressive early (at least, until Bobby told him to get after it, sometimes), so throw him an early strike. I can’t remember what he’s hitting when putting the first pitch in play and how often he puts it in play, but I’m betting both are magnitudes above his previous stats.
The book on a player dies hard, man. You get the guy out one way, he gets hot for a month or ven two, you still try to get him out that way.
Bat Masterson
October 1st, 2012
2:17 pm
Some where around his age 26-29 seasons he’ll “break out.”
Gonna be a star for the Yankees
Frankie
October 1st, 2012
2:17 pm
” Heyward is comfortably one of the 15 most valuable players in baseball this season.”
Que?
Take Harper, LaRoche, Zimmerman and Desmond from the Nats alone
Efrim
October 1st, 2012
2:17 pm
Heyward is comfortably one of the 15 most valuable players in baseball this season.
This is going to start a wonderful debate. This is a great time to get up, walk around the office, and go to the bathroom. See everyone later.
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
2:17 pm
Here’s a post from Sean Foreman of Baseball Reference:
You may have heard that the AL MVP is between a player who may win the Triple Crown and a player who most (if not all) of the stathead-friendly sites say is the best player in the league this year. There have been a number of articles being written by veteran writers about how stupid WAR is–complaining it’s incomprehensible, stupid, meaningless, dumb, formulas are different, etc. etc.
Here are a couple of recent examples:
Here is Bill Madden in the New York Daily News [link included in the post]
Here is Jerry Green in the Detroit News [link included in the post]
Now I’m painting the baseball media with a broad brush, but each of these types of articles gets my hackles up. I’m a fellow card-carrying-member of the BBWAA and one would think that I would be afforded some professional courtesy before having a stat we produce being berated in print.
Not a single member of the print media, the broadcast media or radio has reached out to me to learn more about WAR since this MVP controversy has erupted. Not one. First, I apologize to the curious and hard working media members who put in the time to study the game and its analysis in detail. You know who you are, and I appreciate your hard work. I’m sure many have taken the time to read our exhaustive introduction to WAR. But in the last two months not a single person has called or e-mailed asking for more information and that includes Bill Madden and Jerry Green.
So if you are a member of the media who is skeptical about WAR and want to get some questions answered. Or if you are a radio or tv host want to talk to me on the air or on the record to excoriate me for WAR’s failings. Let me know. I’ll appear on any radio show to discuss WAR and make time for any writer who wants to learn something about it or debate its merits.
Here is my contact information.[link included in the post]
http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2012/09/how-many-baseball-writers-have-called-or-e-mailed-to-talk-to-me-about-what-goes-into-war-zero/
ncscoots
October 1st, 2012
2:19 pm
Gonna be a star for the Yankees
Oh, man, that short porch? Have mercy.
Frankie
October 1st, 2012
2:20 pm
Heyward having a solid season, still let’s not get carried away.
Doesn’t strike fear in pitchers yet and cannot carry a club. Reality and hopefully next couple of years. He looked as bad as anybody his Rookie season in the playoffs where I think he got 1 or 2 hits and clearly overmatched. Lets hope for improvement this season.
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
2:21 pm
Frankie, no Nationals’ player approaches Heyward in terms of overall value.
phil
October 1st, 2012
2:23 pm
Not a single member of the print media, the broadcast media or radio has reached out to me to learn more about WAR since this MVP controversy has erupted. Not one. First, I apologize to the curious and hard working media members who put in the time to study the game and its analysis in detail. You know who you are, and I appreciate your hard work. I’m sure many have taken the time to read our exhaustive introduction to WAR. But in the last two months not a single person has called or e-mailed asking for more information and that includes Bill Madden and Jerry Green.
************
I wonder why……no one much gives a damn perhaps?
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
2:25 pm
Frankie, there are only maybe around 13 position players who did as good or better in terms of carrying a club this season than Jason Heyward, if overall value as a baseball player has anything to do with carrying a club.
phil
October 1st, 2012
2:26 pm
Carrying a club….
RBI…..
Both are meaningless and empty.
Murph
October 1st, 2012
2:27 pm
DOB, are you going to Primanti Bros while you’re in Pittsburgh? Too touristy?
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
2:27 pm
I wonder why……no one much gives a damn perhaps?
They sure do bring it up a lot, for folks who don’t give a damn.
Perhaps they should figure out why it’s worthy of criticism before jumping at the chance to criticize it.
raleighbravefan
October 1st, 2012
2:30 pm
I guess it’s hard for anyone who is a total believer in the all-powerful value of advanced statistics, to NOT sound condecending and arrogant when talking to (lecturing) us mere mortals about the folly of our ways.
Hillbilly
October 1st, 2012
2:30 pm
Oh, man, that short porch? Have mercy.
{2011 Joke, but I can’t resisit, sorry}: If they move the wall in to the grass in front of second base, he’ll dominate the league in ground-rule doubles.
phil
October 1st, 2012
2:31 pm
“They” wouldn’t know an actual baseball if it rolled up to their feet….
raleighbravefan
October 1st, 2012
2:31 pm
Stat that counts the most = WINS (however you get them).
Bat Masterson
October 1st, 2012
2:32 pm
Kind of sad but that might apply to Sept 2012
phil
October 1st, 2012
2:34 pm
Wins?
Useless number, devoid of real meaning because it doesn’t connotate value.
Jimmy
October 1st, 2012
2:36 pm
All of the important games start tonight in the 7:05 / 7:10 window.
Pending rain delays.
RC
October 1st, 2012
2:36 pm
Stat that counts the most = WINS (however you get them).
No question. The argument made those that tout WAR over other statistics is that it has a much, much higher correlation to wins than AVG, HR, and RBI do.
Mixxo
October 1st, 2012
2:38 pm
http://thebiglead.fantasysportsven.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/matty-ryan-9-30-12.gif
jeffrey d
October 1st, 2012
2:40 pm
How do you calculate WAR?
Jimmy
October 1st, 2012
2:42 pm
jeffrey d -”How do you calculate WAR?”
It’s a complicated formula that only three people understand.
Two of those are dead, and the other post on here often.
raleighbravefan
October 1st, 2012
2:45 pm
RC – I understand that. I agree that to some degree that is true. I also agree that some of the advanced stats can be very useful as part of an overall evaluation. My problem is that I think WAR is flawed enough to be, at least, troubling, and probably to some extent, misleading. But then, I’m not a stathead.
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
2:45 pm
phil, Heyward has done as much or more to carry his club than all but about 13 position players.
The evidence suggests that Heyward is one of the 10 most valuable position players in the NL this season. It is what it is, regardless of personal feelings about Heyward.
raleighbravefan
October 1st, 2012
2:46 pm
jeffrey – calculation of WAR seems to depend on the one doing the calculating.
TennesseePaul
October 1st, 2012
2:47 pm
Nothing TenneseePaul hates more than “hype” and “future promise”
Got not time for it.
It does annoy me when a player moves along the normal, average production trajectory and, low and behold he peaked in his peak years! And then we read about how he “figured it out” and had a “break out season”… I was under the impression “peak years” was so defined because of optimal output from players during those years. It’s to be expected.
Heyward should be back to his 2010 output level well within 6 years of being in the majors. If not, it will have been a lot of hype. Freeman’s benefit is weighted in the other extreme; coming up no one really cared for him to begin with, so anything he does is a plus. You know, if one can say he has done anything.
TennesseePaul
October 1st, 2012
2:49 pm
It’s a complicated formula that only three people understand.
They each calculate it differently.
jeffrey d
October 1st, 2012
2:49 pm
jeffrey – calculation of WAR seems to depend on the one doing the calculating.
I got it now. Based on my calculations, Lyle Overbay has a WAR of 8.4.
Of course, my formula is birthyear/weight.
Waffle House or Bust
October 1st, 2012
2:49 pm
Just got back from NYC and the Met’s do their postgame show in Times Square. They do the typical window studio where people can stand behind them while broadcasting. Guess who stood behind them Friday doing the Braves chop?
ME!!
I also saw the MLB Fan Cave. Very awesome!
raleighbravefan
October 1st, 2012
2:49 pm
It seems that asking the value of WAR is similar to asking 10 economists to quantify the condition of the economy.
ncscoots
October 1st, 2012
2:49 pm
Kind of sad but that might apply to Sept 2012
Yeah, he hasn’t had much kick to his finish. Have to hope the adrenaline fires up for the postseason.
phil
October 1st, 2012
2:51 pm
So that was Waffle House they dragged off the set and locked up….
RC
October 1st, 2012
2:53 pm
raleighbravefan,
I agree with you that WAR is somewhat flawed, at least in how it weighs defense. However, I think it does a better job than any other single stat at valuing a player. To me there is too many variables to completely rely on a single stat to give player value though. Of the ones available, WAR is currently the best we have.
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
2:54 pm
I guess it’s hard for anyone who is a total believer in the all-powerful value of advanced statistics, to NOT sound condecending and arrogant when talking to (lecturing) us mere mortals about the folly of our ways.
Seems sort of condescending and arrogant to completely disregard and be critical of a metric that people have put a lot of research, work and thought in to without any attempts to understand what goes in to it; and to think that your own understanding of the game is the only one that has merit.
It’s just odd that some folks would want to ignore the results of the people who have likely out-researched, out-worked and out-thought them when it comes to understanding the game and what kind of contributions from players lead to wins.
We should probably start disregarding and criticizing what those folks who go to years of medical school and do medical research tell us. They are just arrogant and they are just preaching to us about the “folly of our ways.” Shame on them for being so condescending and arrogant.
jeffrey d
October 1st, 2012
2:56 pm
How is WAR comparable to med school?
nolie
October 1st, 2012
2:57 pm
Trout isn’t even the best defensive CF on his team….MF
say WHAT!!! Trout is leading the majors in CF, what a silly statement
Bat Masterson
October 1st, 2012
2:57 pm
Where is nolie to point out WAR is not a stat?
ncscoots
October 1st, 2012
2:58 pm
But in the last two months not a single person has called or e-mailed asking for more information and that includes Bill Madden and Jerry Green.
Now, me, I happen to know who Sean Foreman is, and I happen to have a lot of respect for him. But come on, who thinks that Sean is the go-to guy, of the entire baseball world, for information on WAR? What would have been more surprising is that he did get any emails, not that he didn’t.
I make no excuses for folks who are unwilling to investigate the viability of a metric, but I also understand the reluctance of many to be force-fed while being told they’re stupid to be hungry.
And people think politicians have a monopoly on gridlock and partisanship.
Murph
October 1st, 2012
2:58 pm
Forum WAR calculations:
Number of individual’s posts per blog – average number of posts per blog/3 * 1.15 + hours spent in your mom’s basement – hairs on your head = WAR
jeffrey d
October 1st, 2012
2:58 pm
Right above you
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
2:58 pm
WAR basically converts a player’s contributions to bases, outs, then to runs, then to wins.
There are slight variations in terms of what goes in to this calculations. But it’s not just wild guesses. It’s all about converting players’ contributions to runs and runs to wins.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
Murph
October 1st, 2012
3:00 pm
Given the zero hours spent in my mom’s basement and my almost full head of hair, my WAR is very low.
jeffrey d
October 1st, 2012
3:01 pm
Does WAR take into account scores of your team’s games? Since it’s essentially your value to helping your team win.
nolie
October 1st, 2012
3:02 pm
Now, me, I happen to know who Sean Foreman is…scoots
the one son of George who is not also named George????
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
3:04 pm
jeffrey d, you clearly missed the point.
People who have researched and come up with WAR have probably out-researched, out-thought, out-worked all of us in terms of the way we view player value. The least we can do is try to grasp an understanding of it to at least see if it has merit, and at least be open to the possibility that it does.
But some don’t see it that way. To some WAR is “the other,” WAR is alien, WAR is part of some grand conspiracy, so it does not deserve any sort of acknowledgement and no one should bother having an open mind about it and trying to understand it and what goes in to it.
Efrim
October 1st, 2012
3:05 pm
Freeman’s benefit is weighted in the other extreme; coming up no one really cared for him to begin with, so anything he does is a plus. You know, if one can say he has done anything.
I’ve come away from this season very happy, as I think he’s going to be a much better offensive player than I ever thought he could be. Now, his defense….. I actually thought he was going to better in that area than he’s shown to date.
ncscoots
October 1st, 2012
3:06 pm
the one son of George who is not also named George????
Ha!
Obviously, offspring conceived and named in a weak moment by George.
Sean probably never even received one of the griddle cooking thingys from George. Sad, really. No wonder he’s devoted his life to statistical analysis.
Efrim
October 1st, 2012
3:07 pm
say WHAT!!! Trout is leading the majors in CF, what a silly statement
noles, can you post the CF +/- if you don’t mind? Would love to see where Dexter Fowler and Denard Span are? Just a couple guys I could see roaming CF for our Braves in 2013……….
RC
October 1st, 2012
3:08 pm
Trout isn’t even the best defensive CF on his team….MF
say WHAT!!! Trout is leading the majors in CF, what a silly statement
nolie, it’s actually possible that this statement is true. Bourjos is a phenomenal defensive CF. However, it just means that Trout is among the top 5 in all of MLB, and Bourjos is among the top 3. His bad luck for having good teammates I guess (and Bourjos can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag).
raleighbravefan
October 1st, 2012
3:09 pm
Shaun @2:54 – I rest my case!
I don’t know about some here, but I have CONSISTANTLY agreed that stats have value in evaluating players and teams. Great value, even. The better the stat, the more value. AND I understand that the newer stats are often/usually more useful than the old one’s. I even understand your constant drone about RBI (team = good, individual = bad). What you seem to disreguard, is what I have said many, many times…that informed observation, coupled with knowledge and experience (basically, good scouting) is JUST as important in making those evaluations.
To use your analogy…A doctor can study all the lab reports in the world, but examining the patient and talking with him is just as valuable, when assessing the persons overall health.
I don’t see what’s so hard to understand about that.
Efrim
October 1st, 2012
3:09 pm
dschoenfield David Schoenfield
Aaron Cook made 18 starts for the Red Sox. In 13 of them, he struck out zero or one. How is this even possible?
Yuck.
MFin04
October 1st, 2012
3:10 pm
I think it’s funny that soo many WAR supporters have this “us against the world” mentality. It really isn’t that way, it’s just illogical that WAR is the end all be-all of stats. And if you don’t want to pick an MVP based on it then somehow you’re illogical.
I’d rather see some sort of overall “runs created” stat that uses RBIs/HRs/SB/Defense/Baserunning that gives a player an overall numbers of runs created.
David O'Brien
October 1st, 2012
3:13 pm
New BLOGGAGE for the people
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/10/01/since-sid-slid-its-been-2-decades-of-losing-for-pirates/
MFin04
October 1st, 2012
3:14 pm
“it’s actually possible that this statement is true. Bourjos is a phenomenal defensive CF”
Thank you. I think the point is…you can’t give a guy credit for the defense he plays if his replacement would play the same or better defense. You can give the guy credit for all the offense and baserunning, but not the defense since he isn’t really adding value to his team defensively.
It makes it a more fair comparison between Cabrera and Trout.
nolie
October 1st, 2012
3:15 pm
no it is not true, Bourjoos is not as good as Trout
To 30 in Runs Saved
Bourn, Michael 25
Trout, Mike 23
Span, Denard 19
Gentry, Craig 14
Harper, Bryce 13
Maxwell, Justin 12
Bourjos, Peter 10
Maybin, Cameron 8
Colvin, Tyler 7
Morgan, Nyjer 7
Young, Chris 7
Rasmus, Colby 6
Ruggiano, Justin 6
Young, Eric 6
Cain, Lorenzo 5
Barnes, Brandon 4
Dyson, Jarrod 4
Jackson, Austin 4
Torres, Andres 4
Gomez, Carlos 3
Parra, Gerardo 3
Bernadina, Roger 2
Byrd, Marlon 2
Ellsbury, Jacoby 2
Gose, Anthony 2
Podsednik, Scott 2
Repko, Jason 2
Stubbs, Drew 2
Sweeney, Ryan 2
Brown, Corey 1
Campana, Tony 1
Carrera, Ezequiel 1
Chambers, Adron 1
Chavez, Endy 1
Crisp, Coco 1
Danks, Jordan 1
Davis, Rajai 1
Denorfia, Chris 1
Dickerson, Chris 1
Donald, Jason 1
Eaton, Adam 1
Ethier, Andre 1
Gwynn, Tony 1
Jay, Jon 1
Lough, David 1
Martinez, Michael 1
Mastroianni, Darin 1
Pollock, A.J. 1
Robinson, Shane 1
Schafer, Logan 1
Schierholtz, Nate 1
Wells, Casper 1
nolie
October 1st, 2012
3:16 pm
Top Ten +/-
Michael Bourn +39
Michael Trout +33
Denard Span +31
Justin Maxwell +21
Bryce Harper +18
Lorenzo Cain +14
Peter Bourjos +14
Eric Young Jr. +13
Justin Ruggiano +13
Cameron Maybin +12
Chris Young +12
Shaun
October 1st, 2012
3:16 pm
raleighbravefan, if you think I disregard the assessments of scouts, you a mistaken.
That’s essentially the whole problem with the turns baseball discussion takes. There is the false idea that everything needs to be stats/sabermetrics versus scouts.
The most intelligent baseball folks, whether they are in the industry or outside, understand that things have progressed way beyond that. If you are still looking at baseball through the lens of some false dichotomy of stats versus scouts, you are living way back in the Dark Ages.
Most of the civilized baseball world has moved past all this, fully embracing both stats/sabermetrics/advanced stats/whatever you want to call it and scouting. There are a few Neanderthals left that think we have to pick sides and are still living in a world where WAR is less useful than scouting grades and vice versa. But the civilized baseball world has moved beyond that and realize that good information is good information, whether it be a player’s WAR or a player’s scouting grades.
RC
October 1st, 2012
3:19 pm
Thank you. I think the point is…you can’t give a guy credit for the defense he plays if his replacement would play the same or better defense. You can give the guy credit for all the offense and baserunning, but not the defense since he isn’t really adding value to his team defensively.
This is where our opinions differ. I think it’s ridiculous to hold a player’s teammate’s abilities against him. Just because there is another good defensive CF on the Angels, it shouldn’t dimish Trout’s performance in any way.
The way you are describing would give extra credit to players with crappy teammates. That simply doesn’t make any sense. (Not to mention the fact that if you are holding Bourjos’s defense against Trout, you’d have to credit his offense with how bad Bourjos is offensively. Bourjos is well below “replacement” offensively.)
phil
October 1st, 2012
3:19 pm
WAR people have inherent mental defects and cannot be dealt with rationally….
They are classic obsessives, lock themselves in bathrooms for months at a time, wash their hands 15 times an hour, and other such stuff. Some of them even think that, historically speaking, Jose Canseco was the greatest right fielder ever….
RC
October 1st, 2012
3:21 pm
nolie,
The numbers you are citing are aggregate for the entire season, so more opportunities = more runs saved. Since Bourjos is the Angels 4th OF, he hasn’t had the same opportunities to save runs that Trout has.
David O'Brien
October 1st, 2012
3:35 pm
Seven starts in a row for Chipper.
Braves lineup: Bourn cf, Prado lf, Heyward rf, Jones 3b, Freeman 1b, Uggla 2b, McCann c, Simmons ss, Maholm p
Braveone
October 1st, 2012
7:03 pm
From the previous blog which had 914 comments, TheOnlyBravesFan led the way with 46 posts. There were 140 different poster names. Here are the Top 25:
Rank Poster Frequency
1 TheOnlyBravesFan 46
2 phil 44
3 David O’Brien 38
4 Disgusted 36
5 Ghost of Chipper Jones 35
6 nolie 35
7 George_George 34
8 cabravesfan 28
9 Mixxo 24
10 Bat Masterson 23
11 Mitchell 21
12 Trey 20
13 usnavyvolfaninva 19
14 Venice Jim 18
15 Capt.Mudd 17
16 Dum-Bass 17
17 Salt life 15
18 ChattTownBrian 14
19 ncscoots 14
20 uga-brave 14
21 DS1 13
22 ncgary 13
23 Couch Tater 12
24 Brava 11
25 CB 11
icons collection
October 4th, 2012
2:12 pm
I apologise, but, in my opinion, you are not right. I can prove it. Write to me in PM, ew will discuss.
DS1
December 6th, 2012
8:21 pm
I love the new phils CF REVERE, and with MICHAE YOUNG, A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF COMING TO PHLS RAJ, HAS DONE IT AGAIN, RAJ STOLE REVERE FROM TWINS, MY PHILS WILL BE BACK WHERE THEY BELONG IN OCT, NL EAST CHAMPS, BRAVES AND NATS WILL BE NL EAST CHUMPS!!!!!!! ALL IS RITE WITH THE WORLD AGAIN!!!!!!!!!